sft_qwen25_7b_curriculum400_v1: metrics

sft_qwen25_7b_curriculum400_v1/metrics.json

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+{
+  "beats_v6_sft_mean_regret": false,
+  "generation_sanity": {
+    "closed_think": 5,
+    "max_tokens": 169,
+    "mean_tokens": 150.0,
+    "min_tokens": 127,
+    "samples": [
+      {
+        "chars": 432,
+        "has_closed_think": true,
+        "preview": "<think>\nBase-rate environment with normal market dynamics. A standard, diversified portfolio is sufficient. TECH is slightly favored due to the positive earnings surprise, while BONDS provide a solid ballast. We keep wei",
+        "shock": "easy_tech_earnings",
+        "tokens": 127,
+        "valid_action": true
+      },
+      {
+        "chars": 538,
+        "has_closed_think": true,
+        "preview": "<think>\nBase-rate assumption: Normal regime. A 500k bpd cut is a manageable supply constraint. 1st-order effect: Oil prices rise moderately, benefiting OIL sector margins. 2_order effect: The cut is not severe enough to ",
+        "shock": "easy_oil_opec_cut",
+        "tokens": 161,
+        "valid_action": true
+      },
+      {
+        "chars": 568,
+        "has_closed_think": true,
+        "preview": "<think>\nThis is a straightforward structural tailwind for the GREEN sector. The direct impact is an immediate valuation boost and higher visibility into future revenue for European renewable companies. There are no broad",
+        "shock": "easy_green_subsidy",
+        "tokens": 147,
+        "valid_action": true
+      },
+      {
+        "chars": 638,
+        "has_closed_think": true,
+        "preview": "<think>\nNormal base-rate environment. The housing market cooling is benign and expected in a tightening cycle. It mildly compresses REAL_ESTATE yields without but does not threaten broader economic stability. TECH, GREEN",
+        "shock": "easy_housing_cooling",
+        "tokens": 169,
+        "valid_action": true
+      },
+      {
+        "chars": 564,
+        "has_closed_think": true,
+        "preview": "<think>\nMedium difficulty. The pattern-matching trap here is assuming GREEN faces an existential threat from rapid adoption. In reality, structural demand is shifting to electric vehicles, validating GREEN's long-term gr",
+        "shock": "easy_ev_penetration",
+        "tokens": 146,
+        "valid_action": true
+      }
+    ],
+    "total": 5,
+    "valid_actions": 5
+  },
+  "holdout_eval": {
+    "beats_baseline": 3,
+    "mean_regret": 0.027962354717973325,
+    "results": {
+      "100": {
+        "final_nav_real": 1.1073728909953098,
+        "preview": "<think>\nA severe fragmentation shock. The trap is buying GREEN or TECH on the dip, assuming the supply chain disruption is temporary. In reality, the 18-month export freeze creates a permanent, structural bottleneck for ",
+        "regret": 0.06491057945750223,
+        "shock": "hard_rare_earth_rotation",
+        "tokens": 194,
+        "valid": true
+      },
+      "200": {
+        "final_nav_real": 1.1060036929933934,
+        "preview": "<think>\nBase-rate environment. Normal market conditions with no regime shift. The primary driver here is a standard earnings beat, which supports TECH valuations slightly without. There is no inflationary pressure or mac",
+        "regret": 0.05890407704601519,
+        "shock": "easy_tech_earnings",
+        "tokens": 160,
+        "valid": true
+      },
+      "300": {
+        "final_nav_real": 1.1207266169281236,
+        "preview": "<think>\nBase-rate environment. Normal market conditions with no regime shift. The primary driver here is a standard earnings beat, which supports TECH valuations slightly without. There is no inflationary pressure or mac",
+        "regret": 0.047995441167894004,
+        "shock": "easy_tech_earnings",
+        "tokens": 160,
+        "valid": true
+      },
+      "400": {
+        "final_nav_real": 1.050424498440499,
+        "preview": "<think>\nA severe fragmentation shock. The trap is buying GREEN or TECH on the dip, assuming the supply chain disruption is temporary. In reality, the 18-month export freeze creates a permanent, structural bottleneck for ",
+        "regret": -0.01987618036655059,
+        "shock": "hard_rare_earth_rotation",
+        "tokens": 194,
+        "valid": true
+      },
+      "500": {
+        "final_nav_real": 0.9143777390791974,
+        "preview": "<think>\nAmbiguous news. Base-rate assumption holds: normal markets with no regime shift. 1st-order: TECH and GREEN benefit from steady innovation and climate awareness. 2st-order: OIL faces modest demand drag but remains",
+        "regret": -0.012122143714994205,
+        "shock": "ambig_PLACEHOLDER_6",
+        "tokens": 159,
+        "valid": true
+      }
+    },
+    "total": 5,
+    "v6_sft_mean_regret_bar": 0.034,
+    "valid": 5
+  },
+  "lora_alpha": 16,
+  "lora_rank": 16,
+  "model_name": "unsloth/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct",
+  "run_label": "sft_qwen25_7b_curriculum400_v1",
+  "save_method": "lora",
+  "sft_steps": 220,
+  "traces": "/tmp/CarbonAlphaQwen25SFT/code/sft_traces/curriculum_400_e80_m160_h160.jsonl",
+  "v6_sft_mean_regret_bar": 0.034
+}