grpo_qwen25_7b_adapter_phase1_100_v1: metrics

grpo_qwen25_7b_adapter_phase1_100_v1/metrics.json

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+{
+  "base_model": "unsloth/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct",
+  "grpo_steps": 100,
+  "lr": 2e-06,
+  "num_generations": 2,
+  "per_device_batch": 2,
+  "post_grpo_holdout": {
+    "beats_baseline": 5,
+    "mean_regret": 0.1058364543501453,
+    "results": {
+      "100": {
+        "final_nav_real": 1.0715617633330186,
+        "preview": "<think>\nA naive model sees 'renewable supply chain disruption' and immediately sells GREEN. However, this is a classic fragmentation shock. The trap is assuming TECH or GREEN will simply replace the missing rare earths. In reality, the rare",
+        "regret": 0.07546923233968572,
+        "shock": "hard_rare_earth_rotation",
+        "tokens": 200,
+        "valid": true
+      },
+      "200": {
+        "final_nav_real": 1.178442430083944,
+        "preview": "<think>\nBase-rate environment. Normal market conditions with no regime shift. The primary driver here is the consistent earnings growth of TECH. The lack of macro shocks means there is no flight-to-safety or rotation into safe-havens like B",
+        "regret": 0.12097253781446282,
+        "shock": "easy_tech_earnings",
+        "tokens": 173,
+        "valid": true
+      },
+      "300": {
+        "final_nav_real": 1.2275800707519924,
+        "preview": "<think>\nBase-rate environment. Normal market conditions with no regime shift. The primary driver here is the consistent earnings growth of TECH. The lack of macro shocks means there is no flight-to-safety or rotation into safe-havens like B",
+        "regret": 0.14424753186746342,
+        "shock": "easy_tech_earnings",
+        "tokens": 173,
+        "valid": true
+      },
+      "400": {
+        "final_nav_real": 1.2772336587983633,
+        "preview": "<think>\nThis is a textbook deflationary shock. The trap is buying the dip in TECH or OIL on the assumption of cheap capital. However, the 12% YoY drop in export prices indicates severe global demand destruction. This will crush earnings for",
+        "regret": 0.1527395496958377,
+        "shock": "hard_deflation_pulse",
+        "tokens": 186,
+        "valid": true
+      },
+      "500": {
+        "final_nav_real": 0.9567638617009999,
+        "preview": "<think>\nThe pattern-matching trap here is assuming this is a positive catalyst for GREEN or infrastructure. In reality, it's a massive deflationary shock for data center hardware and power utilities. The 10x efficiency gain directly slashes",
+        "regret": 0.03575342003327686,
+        "shock": "ambig_ai_efficiency",
+        "tokens": 215,
+        "valid": true
+      }
+    },
+    "total": 5,
+    "v6_sft_mean_regret_bar": 0.034,
+    "valid": 5
+  },
+  "post_grpo_sanity": {
+    "closed_think": 5,
+    "max_tokens": 190,
+    "mean_tokens": 164,
+    "min_tokens": 144,
+    "samples": [
+      {
+        "chars": 531,
+        "has_closed_think": true,
+        "preview": "<think>\nBase-rate environment with no regime shifts or structural shocks. A standard earnings beat drives a mild rotation into growth. Tech and Bonds form the core of the portfolio, with a small overweight in Green to capture long-term ESG ",
+        "shock": "easy_tech_earnings",
+        "tokens": 148,
+        "valid_action": true
+      },
+      {
+        "chars": 708,
+        "has_closed_think": true,
+        "preview": "<think>\nBase-rate assumption: Normal market. The modest OPEC+ cut creates a temporary supply shock but does not justify a regime shift or severe market dislocation. The 1st-order effect is positive for OIL, providing an immediate price bump",
+        "shock": "easy_oil_opec_cut",
+        "tokens": 190,
+        "valid_action": true
+      },
+      {
+        "chars": 568,
+        "has_closed_think": true,
+        "preview": "<think>\nA straightforward green sector policy tailwind. 1st order: direct demand for hardware (solar) boosts GREEN equities. 2nd order: no spillover effects on oil or inflation, maintaining a normal macro environment. 3rd order: long-term c",
+        "shock": "easy_green_subsidy",
+        "tokens": 162,
+        "valid_action": true
+      },
+      {
+        "chars": 494,
+        "has_closed_think": true,
+        "preview": "<think>\nBase-rate assumption: Normal economic environment. The drop in housing is a normal, expected cooldown after the previous cycle. The primary impact is a slight drag on REAL_ESTATE sector earnings. A balanced portfolio across TECH, GR",
+        "shock": "easy_housing_cooling",
+        "tokens": 144,
+        "valid_action": true
+      },
+      {
+        "chars": 660,
+        "has_closed_think": true,
+        "preview": "<think>\nBase-rate assumption: Normal markets with a gradual transition shock. The 1st-order effect is a massive boost for GREEN infrastructure, particularly charging networks and battery manufacturers. TECH benefits from margin expansion du",
+        "shock": "easy_ev_penetration",
+        "tokens": 176,
+        "valid_action": true
+      }
+    ],
+    "total": 5,
+    "valid_actions": 5
+  },
+  "pre_grpo_sanity": {
+    "closed_think": 5,
+    "max_tokens": 184,
+    "mean_tokens": 164,
+    "min_tokens": 129,
+    "samples": [
+      {
+        "chars": 568,
+        "has_closed_think": true,
+        "preview": "<think>\nNormal market environment with no structural regime shifts. The 1st-order effect of routine earnings is positive for TECH, but this does not justify a massive overweight because it is just a normal beat. The base rate remains intact",
+        "shock": "easy_tech_earnings",
+        "tokens": 168,
+        "valid_action": true
+      },
+      {
+        "chars": 685,
+        "has_closed_think": true,
+        "preview": "<think>\nA minor OPEC+ cut provides a localized supply shock but lacks systemic macro implications. The immediate 4% price bump is a routine commodity spike, not a regime-shift indicator. 1st-order effects favor OIL directly through higher y",
+        "shock": "easy_oil_opec_cut",
+        "tokens": 176,
+        "valid_action": true
+      },
+      {
+        "chars": 427,
+        "has_closed_think": true,
+        "preview": "<think>\nEasy base-rate environment. A straightforward policy tailwind for GREEN assets without any broader macro regime shift. The 1st-order effect is simply a modest upside for the GREEN sector due to the expanded subsidy. No need to deplo",
+        "shock": "easy_green_subsidy",
+        "tokens": 129,
+        "valid_action": true
+      },
+      {
+        "chars": 597,
+        "has_closed_think": true,
+        "preview": "<think>\nBase-rate assumption: Normal market. A minor drop in housing starts reflects broader economic moderation without systemic crisis. 1st order: REAL_ESTATE takes a mild drag due to reduced buyer activity. 2nd order: TECH, GREEN, and OI",
+        "shock": "easy_housing_cooling",
+        "tokens": 163,
+        "valid_action": true
+      },
+      {
+        "chars": 661,
+        "has_closed_think": true,
+        "preview": "<think>\nThe pattern-matching model assumes this is a cyclical rotation out of oil, but the reality is a structural transition. 1st order: Green infrastructure (charging networks) and battery tech benefit from the accelerated transition. 2nd",
+        "shock": "easy_ev_penetration",
+        "tokens": 184,
+        "valid_action": true
+      }
+    ],
+    "total": 5,
+    "valid_actions": 5
+  },
+  "run_label": "grpo_qwen25_7b_adapter_phase1_100_v1",
+  "sft_subfolder": "sft_qwen25_7b_curriculum400_v1",
+  "smoke_gate_passed": true,
+  "smoke_gate_reasons": []
+}