{ "methodology_note": "RQ1-only refresh (ECE + reliability diagram) against whatever checkpoint currently sits at best_{model}.pth -- i.e. the promoted dropout-fix checkpoints for xception/vit, deployed 2026-07-25. Same held-out val split (seed=42, val_fraction=0.15) as every other analysis in this project. RQ2/RQ3 unaffected by the dropout-fix and intentionally not re-run here.", "val_frame_count": 11666, "val_video_count": 1049, "models": { "xception": { "frame_ece": 0.07310491284879563, "video_ece": 0.0832806306958424, "frame_auroc": 0.9926626311220669, "video_auroc": 0.9983982202447164, "frame_reliability": { "bin_accuracies": [ 0.8854988001371272, 0.2261904761904762, 0.14960629921259844, 0.208, 0.05128205128205128, 0.9420289855072463, 0.9622641509433962, 1.0, 0.9887323943661972, 1.0 ], "bin_confidences": [ 0.9913699195327876, 0.8552316016118441, 0.7487110670391969, 0.649741117477417, 0.5505873545622214, 0.548205548438473, 0.6523496576075284, 0.755149797157005, 0.855771786562154, 0.9926880709155389 ], "bin_counts": [ 2917, 168, 127, 125, 117, 138, 159, 189, 355, 7045 ], "bin_boundaries": [ 0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.30000000000000004, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6000000000000001, 0.7000000000000001, 0.8, 0.9, 1.0 ] }, "video_reliability": { "bin_accuracies": [ 0.96, 0.3333333333333333, 0.0, 0.125, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0 ], "bin_confidences": [ 0.9878810474176987, 0.8538837263479946, 0.7486330546078864, 0.6525810244027526, 0.5475465111155062, 0.5623856821957894, 0.6473097034453295, 0.7552529573418257, 0.8575347691066373, 0.9847406328305219 ], "bin_counts": [ 150, 15, 11, 8, 10, 23, 34, 47, 98, 650 ], "bin_boundaries": [ 0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.30000000000000004, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6000000000000001, 0.7000000000000001, 0.8, 0.9, 1.0 ] } }, "vit": { "frame_ece": 0.07872088314652545, "video_ece": 0.10137274672790363, "frame_auroc": 0.9715813834827611, "video_auroc": 0.9871486837226549, "frame_reliability": { "bin_accuracies": [ 0.9080404429465575, 0.5904936014625228, 0.4224137931034483, 0.34069400630914826, 0.22491349480968859, 0.8299319727891157, 0.8939393939393939, 0.9242424242424242, 0.9603960396039604, 0.9964504678928686 ], "bin_confidences": [ 0.9660204226349188, 0.8549974169411868, 0.7543369423726509, 0.6503367849892998, 0.5479899870689352, 0.5508707601602386, 0.6460320423949849, 0.7516925097113908, 0.8540437360211174, 0.988450788930371 ], "bin_counts": [ 2077, 547, 348, 317, 289, 294, 330, 396, 606, 6198 ], "bin_boundaries": [ 0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.30000000000000004, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6000000000000001, 0.7000000000000001, 0.8, 0.9, 1.0 ] }, "video_reliability": { "bin_accuracies": [ 0.945054945054945, 0.8604651162790697, 0.4411764705882353, 0.16666666666666666, 0.08, 0.8947368421052632, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.9983221476510067 ], "bin_confidences": [ 0.9590439275298254, 0.854219067267543, 0.7445819370010321, 0.6437882977661987, 0.5484745028614998, 0.5426871372576754, 0.653532554063832, 0.7467026308680382, 0.8560403551440686, 0.9782306852762983 ], "bin_counts": [ 91, 43, 34, 30, 25, 38, 49, 52, 90, 596 ], "bin_boundaries": [ 0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.30000000000000004, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6000000000000001, 0.7000000000000001, 0.8, 0.9, 1.0 ] } } } }