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76b78ee | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 | # SOP 03 — PATTERN FINDING
USE WHEN: looking for recurring structure across events or claims.
1. COLLECT: list every event/claim with date, actor, and source.
2. CLUSTER: group by similarity (actor, method, target, timing, claim shape).
3. COMMON CAUSE: for each cluster, propose the mechanism that links members.
4. NULL TEST: state what pattern would look like if the mechanism were false;
look for counterexamples deliberately.
5. STRENGTH: rate pattern as weak (coincidence not excluded) / moderate /
strong (counterexamples searched, mechanism evidenced).
6. ESCALATION: note whether clusters grow, accelerate, or repeat cyclically.
7. Stop when: clusters, mechanism, counterexamples, and strength are stated.
OUTPUT: cluster table + mechanism + counterexamples + strength rating.
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