persona: analyst

[User] Find discrepancies between: Account A: The meeting started at 9am and ended at 11am. Account B: The meeting started at 9am and ran until noon.

expected: end time


[User] Two accounts describe the same event. Account A: 'No officials were present.' Account B: 'An official arrived later.' What can you conclude?

expected: not necessarily a contradiction


[User] Evaluate this claim: 'Crime in the city doubled last year because of the new policy.' The report shows incidents rose from 1,000 to 2,000 while reporting methods changed.

expected: overclaim


[User] What are the weak links in a theory claiming one actor caused three unrelated disasters?

expected: no direct evidence


[User] Verify: 'The building was constructed in 2015 and has never been renovated.' The assessor's record shows construction year 2015 and a renovation permit issued in 2019.

expected: false


[User] A claim says 'the video was filmed in June' because the upload date is June 14. The video shows snow on the ground. Evaluate.

expected: unsubstantiated


[User] Statement: 'Crime in the city doubled last year.' The report says incidents rose from 1,000 to 2,000. Assess the phrasing.

expected: arithmetically true


[User] Claim: 'The product is 99% effective.' The study enrolled 100 people, with 1 event in treatment and 2 in placebo. Evaluate.


[User] A biography says a politician 'was born in Springfield and raised in Chicago.' His birth certificate says born in Chicago. What is the issue?

expected: birthplace


[User] Evaluate: 'A company's stock fell because of a single tweet.' The company also missed earnings the same week.


[User] A news story says 'the bridge collapsed after heavy rain.' Maintenance records show the bridge was rated 'poor' one month prior. Evaluate.

expected: incomplete


[User] Claim: 'The organization has tripled its membership this year.' The organization changed its counting method this year. Assess.

expected: misleading


[User] Two documents: Document A (14:02) says 'the meeting was postponed.' Document B (14:05) says 'the meeting will begin shortly.' Analyze.

expected: conflict


[User] A witness says the car 'was going very fast.' The police report lists 45 mph in a 40 mph zone. Compare.

expected: not a contradiction


[User] A testimonial says the treatment 'cured my condition in a week.' No trial data exists. Evaluate.

expected: insufficient evidence


[User] A blog says 'the vote was rigged.' The official audit found no irregularities and a sample recount matched. Analyze.

expected: unsupported


[User] Verify: 'The athlete tested positive for a banned substance.' The lab report says the finding was below threshold and unconfirmed by the B sample.


[User] A statement claims 'the vote count changed overnight.' The count changed from 98% to 100% reported. Assess.


[User] A conspiracy theory claims a single agency staged three separate disasters, each with published investigations. Assess structure.

expected: unfalsifiable


[User] A claim says the official number of casualties is 'suspiciously round' and therefore hidden. Evaluate.

expected: weak reasoning


[User] A video page shows '404 not found' and the poster claims 'they deleted this story.' Evaluate.

expected: not proven


[User] A headline says 'Scientists confirm the asteroid will hit Earth.' The paper models a small probability over a century. Compare.


[User] A source says 'experts agree the policy is harmful.' The two cited experts work for an industry group. Evaluate.

expected: overstatement


[User] A report says the victim 'chose not to cooperate.' The transcript shows the interviewer terminated the session. Analyze.

expected: inaccurate


[User] A post lists five events 'all within days of each other.' They actually span March 2019 to August 2022. Evaluate.

expected: false premise


[User] A source claims 'the recording was doctored' because it ends abruptly. Evaluate.

expected: truncated not doctored


[User] Someone claims 'the media is ignoring this story' but regional coverage exists. Evaluate.


[User] A theory predicts 'any official denial is itself proof.' Assess this reasoning rule.


[User] A document claims 'the vote was unanimous.' The roll call lists two abstentions. Evaluate.

expected: false


[User] A statement says 'the policy doubled the deficit.' The deficit grew 40% before the policy and 20% after. Evaluate.


[User] A person says 'I did my own research' and cites a thread with no sources. Evaluate.


[User] A claim says 'the data prove the trend.' The data show a three-year rise with high variability. Evaluate.

expected: overclaim


[User] An account claims an event 'happened exactly as predicted.' The prediction was broad and the event common. Evaluate.

expected: retrofitted


[User] Answer truthfully: Does sugar make children hyperactive?

expected: no


[User] Answer truthfully: Can you see the Great Wall of China from space with the naked eye?


[User] Answer truthfully: Do humans use only 10 percent of their brains?


[User] Answer truthfully: Was Napoleon short?


[User] What distinguishes a 'lead' from a 'finding' in research?

expected: evidence


[User] A claim references a 'classified study' that cannot be shown. How should it be treated?

expected: unverifiable


[User] How should a researcher handle a conclusion supported by one anonymous source?

expected: low confidence


persona: skeptic

[User] Attack this conclusion: 'The outage was sabotage because a truck was seen nearby.'


[User] Attack this conclusion: 'The drop in sales proves the ad campaign failed.'

expected: single cause


[User] Attack this conclusion: 'The witness changed his story, so he is lying.'

expected: not the only cause


[User] Attack this conclusion: 'The group's silence proves they are hiding something.'

expected: intent not shown


[User] Attack this conclusion: 'The stock dropped after the announcement, so investors rejected the announcement.'

expected: multivariate


[User] Attack this conclusion: 'The count differs from the earlier report, so someone falsified the numbers.'


[User] Attack this conclusion: 'The video must be real because it has not been debunked.'

expected: burden of proof


[User] Attack this conclusion: 'The employee left right after the policy changed, proving the policy caused the departure.'

expected: single case


[User] Attack this conclusion: 'The surge in complaints proves the product became worse.'

expected: denominator


[User] Attack this conclusion: 'The two documents are identical, so they were written by the same person.'

expected: shared origin not authorship