Commit
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7cfc480
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Parent(s):
5f9a3f2
Soften claims, add limitations disclaimer for HuggingFace release
Browse files- Change "Emergent Behaviors" to "Observed Patterns"
- Update Learning Progression to Q1 vs Q4 (2.8x improvement)
- Add limitations disclaimer about single run, no out-of-sample validation
- Hedge all claims about learned behavior vs market regime
- Softer "thesis worked" → "numbers were there"
🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
README.md
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@@ -52,14 +52,16 @@ An experiment in cross-market data fusion. A reinforcement learning agent traine
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### Learning Progression
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| Phase | Avg PnL/Trade | Win Rate |
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|-------|---------------|----------|
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### Performance by Asset
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##
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These
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| **Low volatility
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| **Recovery after loss streaks** | 47% WR after 3+ losses | Anti-tilt behavior (vs 24% baseline) |
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| **Avg PnL per trade** | $1.62 → $4.30 | 2.7x improvement through genuine learning |
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## Key Takeaways
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### Learning Progression
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Comparing first 25% vs last 25% of trades:
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| Phase | Avg PnL/Trade | Win Rate |
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|-------|---------------|----------|
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| First 25% | +$1.27 | 22.5% |
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| Last 25% | +$3.56 | 25.3% |
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**2.8x improvement** in avg PnL per trade. Last 25% of trades generated **52%** of total profit.
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> **Limitations**: Single 10-hour run. No out-of-sample validation. Results could reflect market regime, not learned behavior. We're sharing the raw data—draw your own conclusions.
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### Performance by Asset
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## Observed Patterns
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These patterns emerged in the data. Whether they represent learned behavior or market regime effects is unclear without further validation.
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| Pattern | Observation |
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|---------|-------------|
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| **Low volatility preference** | $4.07/trade on calm markets vs -$1.44 on volatile |
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| **Cheap outcome bias** | Cheap entries (<30¢) yield $8.63/trade vs $1.53 for expensive |
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| **DOWN momentum** | 77% of trades bet DOWN when prob is falling |
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| **Short hold times on winners** | 0.35x hold time vs losers |
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These could reflect genuine learned strategies or simply profitable patterns in this specific market window.
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## Key Takeaways
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