flashvenom Claude Opus 4.5 commited on
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1 Parent(s): 5f9a3f2

Soften claims, add limitations disclaimer for HuggingFace release

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- Change "Emergent Behaviors" to "Observed Patterns"
- Update Learning Progression to Q1 vs Q4 (2.8x improvement)
- Add limitations disclaimer about single run, no out-of-sample validation
- Hedge all claims about learned behavior vs market regime
- Softer "thesis worked" → "numbers were there"

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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  1. README.md +15 -15
README.md CHANGED
@@ -52,14 +52,16 @@ An experiment in cross-market data fusion. A reinforcement learning agent traine
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  ### Learning Progression
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- The model genuinely learned profitable strategies through reinforcement learning:
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  | Phase | Avg PnL/Trade | Win Rate |
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  |-------|---------------|----------|
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- | Early | +$1.29 | 23.6% |
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- | Late | +$2.15 | 24.2% |
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- **+0.6% win rate improvement** and **+$0.85 avg PnL improvement** per trade.
 
 
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  ### Performance by Asset
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@@ -184,20 +186,18 @@ Only this version earned a name.
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  ---
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- ## Emergent Behaviors
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- These weren't explicitly rewarded. The model discovered them while optimizing for profit—and we can see them evolve over time.
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- | Behavior | Early → Late | What It Learned |
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- |----------|--------------|-----------------|
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- | **Low volatility specialist** | Consistent | $4.07/trade on calm markets vs -$1.44 on volatile |
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- | **Hunts cheap outcomes** | 23% → 39% of trades | Cheap entries yield $8.63/trade vs $1.53 for expensive |
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- | **Rides DOWN momentum** | Consistent 77% | Bets DOWN when prob is falling → +$97k net profit |
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- | **Fat tail capture** | $5.8k $20.5k net | Learned to position for asymmetric payoffs |
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- | **Recovery after loss streaks** | 47% WR after 3+ losses | Anti-tilt behavior (vs 24% baseline) |
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- | **Avg PnL per trade** | $1.62 → $4.30 | 2.7x improvement through genuine learning |
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- Consistent throughout: **Cuts winners fast** (0.35x hold time vs losers)—opposite of human intuition, but it works in these markets.
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  ## Key Takeaways
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  ### Learning Progression
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+ Comparing first 25% vs last 25% of trades:
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  | Phase | Avg PnL/Trade | Win Rate |
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  |-------|---------------|----------|
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+ | First 25% | +$1.27 | 22.5% |
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+ | Last 25% | +$3.56 | 25.3% |
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+ **2.8x improvement** in avg PnL per trade. Last 25% of trades generated **52%** of total profit.
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+
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+ > **Limitations**: Single 10-hour run. No out-of-sample validation. Results could reflect market regime, not learned behavior. We're sharing the raw data—draw your own conclusions.
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  ### Performance by Asset
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  ---
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+ ## Observed Patterns
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+ These patterns emerged in the data. Whether they represent learned behavior or market regime effects is unclear without further validation.
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+ | Pattern | Observation |
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+ |---------|-------------|
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+ | **Low volatility preference** | $4.07/trade on calm markets vs -$1.44 on volatile |
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+ | **Cheap outcome bias** | Cheap entries (<30¢) yield $8.63/trade vs $1.53 for expensive |
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+ | **DOWN momentum** | 77% of trades bet DOWN when prob is falling |
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+ | **Short hold times on winners** | 0.35x hold time vs losers |
 
 
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+ These could reflect genuine learned strategies or simply profitable patterns in this specific market window.
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  ## Key Takeaways
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