Update README.md
Browse files
README.md
CHANGED
|
@@ -43,17 +43,17 @@ After cleaning the dataset, several visualizations were created to better unders
|
|
| 43 |
|
| 44 |
*Correlation heatmap*
|
| 45 |
|
| 46 |
-
|
| 47 |
|
| 48 |
*Distribution plots*
|
| 49 |
|
| 50 |
-
|
| 51 |
|
| 52 |
|
| 53 |
*Sctter Plot*
|
| 54 |
|
| 55 |
|
| 56 |
-
|
| 57 |
|
| 58 |
|
| 59 |
|
|
@@ -64,7 +64,7 @@ The grapsh shows that average ride prices remain constat throughout the day.
|
|
| 64 |
This indicates the the hour of the day does not affect ride pricing.
|
| 65 |
|
| 66 |
|
| 67 |
-
|
| 68 |
|
| 69 |
|
| 70 |
### 2. How do weather conditions affect ride prices?
|
|
@@ -73,10 +73,10 @@ Both the temperature scatterplot and the cold-warm compariosn showed that the pr
|
|
| 73 |
Temperatue doesn't affect ride prices.
|
| 74 |
|
| 75 |
|
| 76 |
-
|
| 77 |
|
| 78 |
|
| 79 |
-
|
| 80 |
|
| 81 |
|
| 82 |
## 3. Which pickup location tend to have higher ride prices?
|
|
@@ -85,20 +85,132 @@ Pickup from Boston Uni, Fenway and the Finanical District are the most expensive
|
|
| 85 |
Haymarket square and North End are the cheapset. We can see clear differences by location.
|
| 86 |
|
| 87 |
|
| 88 |
-
|
| 89 |
|
| 90 |
|
|
|
|
| 91 |
|
|
|
|
| 92 |
|
| 93 |
|
|
|
|
| 94 |
|
| 95 |
|
| 96 |
|
|
|
|
| 97 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 98 |
|
|
|
|
| 99 |
|
|
|
|
| 100 |
|
|
|
|
| 101 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 102 |
|
| 103 |
|
| 104 |
|
|
|
|
| 43 |
|
| 44 |
*Correlation heatmap*
|
| 45 |
|
| 46 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/Z08ys7YF-nnjaYReVid8R.png" width="600">
|
| 47 |
|
| 48 |
*Distribution plots*
|
| 49 |
|
| 50 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/JvG5iCw7Muku-TPNeFjGC.png" width="600">
|
| 51 |
|
| 52 |
|
| 53 |
*Sctter Plot*
|
| 54 |
|
| 55 |
|
| 56 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/K3aUK7C_smA7SV_wqTIwk.png" width="600">
|
| 57 |
|
| 58 |
|
| 59 |
|
|
|
|
| 64 |
This indicates the the hour of the day does not affect ride pricing.
|
| 65 |
|
| 66 |
|
| 67 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/vKfwMnMYtYmP5RlEIRJSj.png" width="600">
|
| 68 |
|
| 69 |
|
| 70 |
### 2. How do weather conditions affect ride prices?
|
|
|
|
| 73 |
Temperatue doesn't affect ride prices.
|
| 74 |
|
| 75 |
|
| 76 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/HP7RnS2rTq7VLBMFS-8TX.png" width="600">
|
| 77 |
|
| 78 |
|
| 79 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/YIXjRC95l532mNhe341b-.png" width="600">
|
| 80 |
|
| 81 |
|
| 82 |
## 3. Which pickup location tend to have higher ride prices?
|
|
|
|
| 85 |
Haymarket square and North End are the cheapset. We can see clear differences by location.
|
| 86 |
|
| 87 |
|
| 88 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/aaXYuxtRQPIzdmog9EJgZ.png" width="600">
|
| 89 |
|
| 90 |
|
| 91 |
+
## 4. Are there price differences between Uber and Lyft rides?
|
| 92 |
|
| 93 |
+
Lyft shows a wider and higher price distribution than Uber, meaning Lyft ried tend to be more expensive.
|
| 94 |
|
| 95 |
|
| 96 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/IJoqL7w6fYisWdDkcI50q.png" width="600">
|
| 97 |
|
| 98 |
|
| 99 |
|
| 100 |
+
# Baseline Model
|
| 101 |
|
| 102 |
+
The goal was to build a simple first model using Linear Regression. I split the data into 80% train / 20% test, encoded categorical variables, selected the features (X), and set price as the target (y).
|
| 103 |
+
After training the model, I evaluated it using MAE, MSE, RMSE, and R².
|
| 104 |
+
I then reviewed the residual distribution, the Actual vs. Predicted plot, and the feature coefficients to understand model errors and which variables influenced price the most.
|
| 105 |
|
| 106 |
+
*Model's behavoior:*
|
| 107 |
|
| 108 |
+
-Residual distribution : showed how far predictions were from the true values
|
| 109 |
|
| 110 |
+
-Actucal vs Predicted plot : Revealed clear underestimation for high price rides.
|
| 111 |
|
| 112 |
+
-Coefficient plot: showed that surge_multiplier and distance were the strongest predicitors.
|
| 113 |
+
|
| 114 |
+
### Conclusion
|
| 115 |
+
The baseline Linear Regression model captured general trends but struggled with the non-linear structure of the data, especially for expensive rides. The residuals showed noticeable spread, and the R² score confirmed limited explanatory power.
|
| 116 |
+
This indicated the need for feature engineering and more advanced models in later stages.
|
| 117 |
+
|
| 118 |
+
|
| 119 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/x8ZkElILIrdkuLfEacnDs.png" width="600">
|
| 120 |
+
|
| 121 |
+
|
| 122 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/zrT7egOPfGi_psoBCIaIo.png" width="600">
|
| 123 |
+
|
| 124 |
+
|
| 125 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/_oxvMAfpvxZ4xo7m3BYV-.png" width="600">
|
| 126 |
+
|
| 127 |
+
|
| 128 |
+
# Feature Engineering
|
| 129 |
+
For feature engineering, I focused on the numeric columns and defined a list of numeric features that would be used for modeling.
|
| 130 |
+
After preparing the base numeric inputs, I generated polynomial features to help the model capture simple non-linear relationships that the original variables alone might miss.
|
| 131 |
+
This expanded the feature space and gave the later models more expressive power.
|
| 132 |
+
|
| 133 |
+
|
| 134 |
+
## Applying Clustering
|
| 135 |
+
To improve the feature set, I used K-Means clustering on the scaled polynomial features. I applied the Elbow Method and found that four clusters offered a good balance between model complexity and explained variation. After fitting K-Means with k=4, I added each ride's cluster label back into the dataset.
|
| 136 |
+
To better understand the structure of the clusters, I visualized them using PCA for linear dimensionality reduction and UMAP for clearer non-linear separation, both of which clearly displayed distinct cluster groupings.
|
| 137 |
+
Finally, I enhanced the dataset by calculating each ride's distance to its cluster centroid and creating cluster-probability features, which provided the later models with additional information about cluster confidence and structure.
|
| 138 |
+
|
| 139 |
+
|
| 140 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/BtMycLgbDEOZkHZH14c4D.png" width="600">
|
| 141 |
+
|
| 142 |
+
|
| 143 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/dItyvpJvX5HMlXcp26kkP.png" width="600">
|
| 144 |
+
|
| 145 |
+
|
| 146 |
+
|
| 147 |
+
# Train Three Models
|
| 148 |
+
|
| 149 |
+
I trained three improved regression models using the engineered dataset: Linear Regression, Random Forest Regressor, and Gradient Boosting Regressor.
|
| 150 |
+
Each model was fitted on the training data and evaluated on the test set using RMSE, MAE, and R² to measure predictive performance.
|
| 151 |
+
All three improved models performed far better than the baseline, reducing error dramatically.
|
| 152 |
+
Performance across Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting was very similar, with Gradient Boosting achieving the best overall balance of RMSE, MAE, and R², making it the strongest model in this comparison.
|
| 153 |
+
Its boosted tree structure allowed it to capture nonlinear interactions more effectively than the other models.
|
| 154 |
+
|
| 155 |
+
|
| 156 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/Otb1cFsJT2ZMHRsWdTjWk.png" width="600">
|
| 157 |
+
|
| 158 |
+
|
| 159 |
+
*Gradient Boosting features importance*
|
| 160 |
+
|
| 161 |
+
|
| 162 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/egfcECAhQbl7E_omsY7vT.png" width="600">
|
| 163 |
+
|
| 164 |
+
|
| 165 |
+
|
| 166 |
+
# Regression to Classifiction
|
| 167 |
+
To transform the problem from predicting a continuous price into predicting price categories, I converted the numeric target into discrete classes using three different strategies:
|
| 168 |
+
|
| 169 |
+
-*Median Split* – converted the target into a binary class (0 = below median, 1 = above median).
|
| 170 |
+
|
| 171 |
+
-*Quantile Binning* – created three balanced classes based on the 33% and 66% percentiles of the training set.
|
| 172 |
+
|
| 173 |
+
-*Business-Rule Threshold* – defined “expensive” rides using a simple rule: price > 0.
|
| 174 |
+
|
| 175 |
+
Before training classification models, I examined the class distributions for train and test to ensure they were reasonably balanced.
|
| 176 |
+
Visualizations confirmed that the median split and quantile binning produced well-distributed classes, while the business-rule split created a more imbalanced dataset.
|
| 177 |
+
|
| 178 |
+
|
| 179 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/6TBw50gy-mw3bsMMx_B0_.png" width="600">
|
| 180 |
+
|
| 181 |
+
|
| 182 |
+
# Train & Eval Classification Models
|
| 183 |
+
|
| 184 |
+
After converting the continuous target into categorical classes, three different classifiers from scikit-learn were trained: Logistic Regression, Random Forest Classifier, and Gradient Boosting Classifier.
|
| 185 |
+
To keep computation manageable, a 100,000-row subsample of the training data was used. Each model was trained and evaluated using Accuracy, Macro F1-score, and a full classification report, followed by confusion matrix visualizations.
|
| 186 |
+
Logistic Regression showed high confusion between all classes and struggled with the middle class.
|
| 187 |
+
Random Forest improved separation but still mixed boundaries, especially for Class 1.
|
| 188 |
+
Gradient Boosting delivered the most balanced predictions, with the best stability across all classes.
|
| 189 |
+
### Winner: Gradient Boosting Classifier, achieving the strongest overall performance.
|
| 190 |
+
|
| 191 |
+
|
| 192 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/9AHm6ZOqwHH6wKOXGx8Eo.png" width="600">
|
| 193 |
+
|
| 194 |
+
|
| 195 |
+
|
| 196 |
+
|
| 197 |
+
|
| 198 |
+
# Logistic Regression
|
| 199 |
+
|
| 200 |
+
|
| 201 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/D5ilyilgyJhl0eVeNxopI.png" width="600">
|
| 202 |
+
|
| 203 |
+
|
| 204 |
+
# Random Forest
|
| 205 |
+
|
| 206 |
+
|
| 207 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/SmrQbCw7eRnmyX6vJXCIH.png" width="600">
|
| 208 |
+
|
| 209 |
+
|
| 210 |
+
# Gredient Boosting
|
| 211 |
+
|
| 212 |
+
|
| 213 |
+
<img src="https://cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/6914bfee85498cde4e532078/c9Nl6GPiF3Q5I5Uj1MMpT.png" width="600">
|
| 214 |
|
| 215 |
|
| 216 |
|