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Golf-Forecaster

Text Generation
PEFT
Safetensors
English
forecasting
prediction
reinforcement-learning
grpo
lora
mixture-of-experts
golf
sports
future-as-label
Eval Results (legacy)
Model card Files
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Community
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@@ -58,6 +58,12 @@ Evaluated on 855 held-out test questions (temporal split, Aug 2025+). Golf-Forec
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  | gpt-oss-120b (base) | 0.218 | +12.8% | 0.083 |
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  | GPT-5.1 | 0.218 | +12.8% | 0.106 |
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  ### Metrics
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  - **Brier Score**: Mean squared error between predicted probability and outcome (0 or 1). Lower is better. **Brier Skill Score (BSS)** expresses this as improvement over always predicting the base rate — positive means the model learned something useful beyond historical frequency.
 
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  | gpt-oss-120b (base) | 0.218 | +12.8% | 0.083 |
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  | GPT-5.1 | 0.218 | +12.8% | 0.106 |
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+ ![Brier Skill Score](https://huggingface.co/datasets/LightningRodLabs/GolfForecasting/resolve/main/brier_skill_score.png)
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+ ![Brier Score Comparison](https://huggingface.co/datasets/LightningRodLabs/GolfForecasting/resolve/main/brier_score_comparison.png)
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+ ![ECE Comparison](https://huggingface.co/datasets/LightningRodLabs/GolfForecasting/resolve/main/ece_comparison.png)
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  ### Metrics
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  - **Brier Score**: Mean squared error between predicted probability and outcome (0 or 1). Lower is better. **Brier Skill Score (BSS)** expresses this as improvement over always predicting the base rate — positive means the model learned something useful beyond historical frequency.