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  ### RL-Tuned gpt-oss-120b for Predicting Trump Administration Actions
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- We fine-tuned [gpt-oss-120b](https://huggingface.co/openai/gpt-oss-120b) with reinforcement learning to predict Trump administration actions. Trained on the [WWTD-2025](https://huggingface.co/datasets/LightningRodLabs/WWTD-2025) dataset of 2,108 binary forecasting questions generated with the [Lightning Rod SDK](https://github.com/lightning-rod-labs/lightningrod-python-sdk), Trump-Forecaster beats GPT-5 on held-out forecasting questions.
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- This repo contains a **LoRA adapter** (5.3 GB) for gpt-oss-120b. A standalone `merge.py` script is included to produce a full merged model if needed.
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- [Dataset](https://huggingface.co/datasets/LightningRodLabs/WWTD-2025) · [Lightning Rod SDK](https://github.com/lightning-rod-labs/lightningrod-python-sdk) · [Future-as-Label paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.06336) · [Outcome-based RL paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.17989)
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  ### RL-Tuned gpt-oss-120b for Predicting Trump Administration Actions
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+ Starting from nothing but 5 search queries, we used the [Lightning Rod SDK](https://github.com/lightning-rod-labs/lightningrod-python-sdk) to automatically generate [2,108 forecasting questions](https://huggingface.co/datasets/LightningRodLabs/WWTD-2025) from news articles, label them using real outcomes, and train this model via RL. **No expertise required. No manual labeling. No domain-specific engineering.** The result beats GPT-5 on held-out questions.
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+ You can do this in any domain just change the search queries. See [how we built the dataset](https://huggingface.co/datasets/LightningRodLabs/WWTD-2025).
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+ This repo contains a **LoRA adapter** for [gpt-oss-120b](https://huggingface.co/openai/gpt-oss-120b). A standalone `merge.py` script is included to merge it into a full model.
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