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Continuous HF update after Nemotron cycle 1

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  1. optimization_cpu_nemotron/20260822T220051Z/nemotron_cycle_01.prompt.json +4 -0
  2. optimization_cpu_nemotron/20260822T220051Z/nemotron_initial_api_test.prompt.json +4 -0
  3. optimization_cpu_nemotron/20260822T220051Z/optimizer.log +61 -0
optimization_cpu_nemotron/20260822T220051Z/nemotron_cycle_01.prompt.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
 
 
 
 
 
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+ {
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+ "model": "nvidia/nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b",
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+ "prompt": "{\n \"cycle\": 1,\n \"iterations_completed\": 20,\n \"pure_current\": {\n \"lookback\": 18,\n \"confirm_buffer\": 0.005471980131167663,\n \"min_sweep_fraction\": 0.016100710944633573\n },\n \"deep_current\": {\n \"min_sweep_depth\": 0.030960521161903412,\n \"max_sweep_depth\": 0.5263514678099679,\n \"min_close_back\": 0.22967476655821217,\n \"min_rejection_wick\": 0.27844832969595984,\n \"min_range_quality\": 0.698642133389158,\n \"max_range_quality\": 3.074207412238073,\n \"max_c1_body_ratio\": 0.7800117699094548,\n \"require_purity\": true,\n \"require_m5_confirmation\": false\n },\n \"top_pure\": {\n \"strategy\": \"pure\",\n \"params\": {\n \"lookback\": 18,\n \"confirm_buffer\": 0.005471980131167663,\n \"min_sweep_fraction\": 0.016100710944633573\n },\n \"score\": 58.934838667696596,\n \"splits\": {\n \"backtest\": {\n \"1.5\": {\n \"opportunities\": 4620,\n \"resolved\": 4620,\n \"wins\": 1901,\n \"losses\": 2719,\n \"unresolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": 0.4114718614718615,\n \"yearly\": {\n \"2024\": {\n \"opportunities\": 2220,\n \"resolved\": 2220,\n \"win_rate\": 0.42567567567567566,\n \"tp\": 945,\n \"sl\": 1275\n },\n \"2025\": {\n \"opportunities\": 2400,\n \"resolved\": 2400,\n \"win_rate\": 0.3983333333333333,\n \"tp\": 956,\n \"sl\": 1444\n },\n \"2026\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n }\n }\n },\n \"2.0\": {\n \"opportunities\": 4620,\n \"resolved\": 4620,\n \"wins\": 1582,\n \"losses\": 3038,\n \"unresolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": 0.3424242424242424,\n \"yearly\": {\n \"2024\": {\n \"opportunities\": 2220,\n \"resolved\": 2220,\n \"win_rate\": 0.35765765765765767,\n \"tp\": 794,\n \"sl\": 1426\n },\n \"2025\": {\n \"opportunities\": 2400,\n \"resolved\": 2400,\n \"win_rate\": 0.3283333333333333,\n \"tp\": 788,\n \"sl\": 1612\n },\n \"2026\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n }\n }\n },\n \"4.0\": {\n \"opportunities\": 4620,\n \"resolved\": 4603,\n \"wins\": 993,\n \"losses\": 3610,\n \"unresolved\": 17,\n \"win_rate\": 0.21572887247447317,\n \"yearly\": {\n \"2024\": {\n \"opportunities\": 2220,\n \"resolved\": 2215,\n \"win_rate\": 0.23702031602708803,\n \"tp\": 525,\n \"sl\": 1690\n },\n \"2025\": {\n \"opportunities\": 2400,\n \"resolved\": 2388,\n \"win_rate\": 0.19597989949748743,\n \"tp\": 468,\n \"sl\": 1920\n },\n \"2026\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n }\n }\n }\n },\n \"validation\": {\n \"1.5\": {\n \"opportunities\": 240,\n \"resolved\": 240,\n \"wins\": 118,\n \"losses\": 122,\n \"unresolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": 0.49166666666666664,\n \"yearly\": {\n \"2024\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2025\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2026\": {\n \"opportunities\": 240,\n \"resolved\": 240,\n \"win_rate\": 0.49166666666666664,\n \"tp\": 118,\n \"sl\": 122\n }\n }\n },\n \"2.0\": {\n \"opportunities\": 240,\n \"resolved\": 240,\n \"wins\": 102,\n \"losses\": 138,\n \"unresolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": 0.425,\n \"yearly\": {\n \"2024\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2025\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2026\": {\n \"opportunities\": 240,\n \"resolved\": 240,\n \"win_rate\": 0.425,\n \"tp\": 102,\n \"sl\": 138\n }\n }\n },\n \"4.0\": {\n \"opportunities\": 240,\n \"resolved\": 240,\n \"wins\": 74,\n \"losses\": 166,\n \"unresolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": 0.30833333333333335,\n \"yearly\": {\n \"2024\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2025\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2026\": {\n \"opportunities\": 240,\n \"resolved\": 240,\n \"win_rate\": 0.30833333333333335,\n \"tp\": 74,\n \"sl\": 166\n }\n }\n }\n },\n \"fronttest\": {\n \"1.5\": {\n \"opportunities\": 240,\n \"resolved\": 240,\n \"wins\": 87,\n \"losses\": 153,\n \"unresolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": 0.3625,\n \"yearly\": {\n \"2024\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2025\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2026\": {\n \"opportunities\": 240,\n \"resolved\": 240,\n \"win_rate\": 0.3625,\n \"tp\": 87,\n \"sl\": 153\n }\n }\n },\n \"2.0\": {\n \"opportunities\": 240,\n \"resolved\": 240,\n \"wins\": 78,\n \"losses\": 162,\n \"unresolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": 0.325,\n \"yearly\": {\n \"2024\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2025\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2026\": {\n \"opportunities\": 240,\n \"resolved\": 240,\n \"win_rate\": 0.325,\n \"tp\": 78,\n \"sl\": 162\n }\n }\n },\n \"4.0\": {\n \"opportunities\": 240,\n \"resolved\": 240,\n \"wins\": 59,\n \"losses\": 181,\n \"unresolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": 0.24583333333333332,\n \"yearly\": {\n \"2024\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2025\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2026\": {\n \"opportunities\": 240,\n \"resolved\": 240,\n \"win_rate\": 0.24583333333333332,\n \"tp\": 59,\n \"sl\": 181\n }\n }\n }\n }\n },\n \"cycle\": 1,\n \"iteration\": 2,\n \"local_iteration\": 2\n },\n \"top_deep\": {\n \"strategy\": \"deep\",\n \"params\": {\n \"min_sweep_depth\": 0.030960521161903412,\n \"max_sweep_depth\": 0.5263514678099679,\n \"min_close_back\": 0.22967476655821217,\n \"min_rejection_wick\": 0.27844832969595984,\n \"min_range_quality\": 0.698642133389158,\n \"max_range_quality\": 3.074207412238073,\n \"max_c1_body_ratio\": 0.7800117699094548,\n \"require_purity\": true,\n \"require_m5_confirmation\": false\n },\n \"score\": 46.92166925791122,\n \"splits\": {\n \"backtest\": {\n \"1.5\": {\n \"opportunities\": 6000,\n \"resolved\": 6000,\n \"wins\": 2523,\n \"losses\": 3477,\n \"unresolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": 0.4205,\n \"yearly\": {\n \"2024\": {\n \"opportunities\": 3000,\n \"resolved\": 3000,\n \"win_rate\": 0.43933333333333335,\n \"tp\": 1318,\n \"sl\": 1682\n },\n \"2025\": {\n \"opportunities\": 2520,\n \"resolved\": 2520,\n \"win_rate\": 0.40476190476190477,\n \"tp\": 1020,\n \"sl\": 1500\n },\n \"2026\": {\n \"opportunities\": 480,\n \"resolved\": 480,\n \"win_rate\": 0.3854166666666667,\n \"tp\": 185,\n \"sl\": 295\n }\n }\n },\n \"2.0\": {\n \"opportunities\": 6000,\n \"resolved\": 6000,\n \"wins\": 2113,\n \"losses\": 3887,\n \"unresolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": 0.3521666666666667,\n \"yearly\": {\n \"2024\": {\n \"opportunities\": 3000,\n \"resolved\": 3000,\n \"win_rate\": 0.36833333333333335,\n \"tp\": 1105,\n \"sl\": 1895\n },\n \"2025\": {\n \"opportunities\": 2520,\n \"resolved\": 2520,\n \"win_rate\": 0.34246031746031746,\n \"tp\": 863,\n \"sl\": 1657\n },\n \"2026\": {\n \"opportunities\": 480,\n \"resolved\": 480,\n \"win_rate\": 0.3020833333333333,\n \"tp\": 145,\n \"sl\": 335\n }\n }\n },\n \"4.0\": {\n \"opportunities\": 6000,\n \"resolved\": 5971,\n \"wins\": 1225,\n \"losses\": 4746,\n \"unresolved\": 29,\n \"win_rate\": 0.205158264947245,\n \"yearly\": {\n \"2024\": {\n \"opportunities\": 3000,\n \"resolved\": 2982,\n \"win_rate\": 0.21864520456069753,\n \"tp\": 652,\n \"sl\": 2330\n },\n \"2025\": {\n \"opportunities\": 2520,\n \"resolved\": 2509,\n \"win_rate\": 0.20167397369469908,\n \"tp\": 506,\n \"sl\": 2003\n },\n \"2026\": {\n \"opportunities\": 480,\n \"resolved\": 480,\n \"win_rate\": 0.13958333333333334,\n \"tp\": 67,\n \"sl\": 413\n }\n }\n }\n },\n \"validation\": {\n \"1.5\": {\n \"opportunities\": 840,\n \"resolved\": 840,\n \"wins\": 331,\n \"losses\": 509,\n \"unresolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": 0.39404761904761904,\n \"yearly\": {\n \"2024\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2025\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2026\": {\n \"opportunities\": 840,\n \"resolved\": 840,\n \"win_rate\": 0.39404761904761904,\n \"tp\": 331,\n \"sl\": 509\n }\n }\n },\n \"2.0\": {\n \"opportunities\": 840,\n \"resolved\": 840,\n \"wins\": 275,\n \"losses\": 565,\n \"unresolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": 0.3273809523809524,\n \"yearly\": {\n \"2024\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2025\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2026\": {\n \"opportunities\": 840,\n \"resolved\": 840,\n \"win_rate\": 0.3273809523809524,\n \"tp\": 275,\n \"sl\": 565\n }\n }\n },\n \"4.0\": {\n \"opportunities\": 840,\n \"resolved\": 829,\n \"wins\": 168,\n \"losses\": 661,\n \"unresolved\": 11,\n \"win_rate\": 0.20265379975874548,\n \"yearly\": {\n \"2024\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2025\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2026\": {\n \"opportunities\": 840,\n \"resolved\": 829,\n \"win_rate\": 0.20265379975874548,\n \"tp\": 168,\n \"sl\": 661\n }\n }\n }\n },\n \"fronttest\": {\n \"1.5\": {\n \"opportunities\": 540,\n \"resolved\": 540,\n \"wins\": 221,\n \"losses\": 319,\n \"unresolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": 0.40925925925925927,\n \"yearly\": {\n \"2024\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2025\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2026\": {\n \"opportunities\": 540,\n \"resolved\": 540,\n \"win_rate\": 0.40925925925925927,\n \"tp\": 221,\n \"sl\": 319\n }\n }\n },\n \"2.0\": {\n \"opportunities\": 540,\n \"resolved\": 540,\n \"wins\": 177,\n \"losses\": 363,\n \"unresolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": 0.3277777777777778,\n \"yearly\": {\n \"2024\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2025\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2026\": {\n \"opportunities\": 540,\n \"resolved\": 540,\n \"win_rate\": 0.3277777777777778,\n \"tp\": 177,\n \"sl\": 363\n }\n }\n },\n \"4.0\": {\n \"opportunities\": 540,\n \"resolved\": 540,\n \"wins\": 108,\n \"losses\": 432,\n \"unresolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": 0.2,\n \"yearly\": {\n \"2024\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2025\": {\n \"opportunities\": 0,\n \"resolved\": 0,\n \"win_rate\": NaN,\n \"tp\": 0,\n \"sl\": 0\n },\n \"2026\": {\n \"opportunities\": 540,\n \"resolved\": 540,\n \"win_rate\": 0.2,\n \"tp\": 108,\n \"sl\": 432\n }\n }\n }\n }\n },\n \"cycle\": 1,\n \"iteration\": 11,\n \"local_iteration\": 1\n },\n \"rules\": \"Recommend bounded causal changes only. Do not use fronttest outcomes. Reject tiny samples. Return {pure:{params:{...},reason},deep:{params:{...},reason},overall_reason}.\"\n}"
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+ }
optimization_cpu_nemotron/20260822T220051Z/nemotron_initial_api_test.prompt.json ADDED
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+ {
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+ "model": "nvidia/nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b",
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+ "prompt": "{\"test\": \"connection and JSON-only response\", \"instruction\": \"Return exactly {\\\"ok\\\":true,\\\"model\\\":\\\"nvidia/nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b\\\"}.\"}"
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+ }
optimization_cpu_nemotron/20260822T220051Z/optimizer.log ADDED
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+ [22:00:51] CPU Nemotron CRT optimization START: run=20260822T220051Z candidates_per_cycle=20 cycles=5 target=80.0%
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+ [22:00:51] ======================== AUTHENTICATION ========================
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+ [22:00:52] HF uploaded optimization_cpu_nemotron/20260822T220051Z/hf_initial_auth_test.txt
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+ [22:00:52] SOURCE UPLOAD SKIPPED: __file__ is unavailable in notebook-cell execution; set OPTIMIZER_SOURCE to upload it
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+ [22:00:52] HUGGING FACE AUTHENTICATED: repo=Mikecode123/volatility_100_index run=20260822T220051Z
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+ [22:00:52] NEMOTRON CLIENT READY: nvidia/nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b
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+ [22:00:52] NEMOTRON SMOKE TEST START: max_tokens=512
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+ [22:00:56] NEMOTRON API call succeeded: call_count_last_minute=1
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+ [22:00:57] HF uploaded optimization_cpu_nemotron/20260822T220051Z/nemotron_initial_api_test.json
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+ [22:00:58] HF uploaded optimization_cpu_nemotron/20260822T220051Z/nemotron_initial_api_test_parsed.json
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+ [22:00:58] NEMOTRON SMOKE TEST PASSED: parsed_keys=['model', 'ok']
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+ [22:00:58] ======================== DATA LOADING ========================
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+ [22:00:58] BASE TRAINER NOT FOUND: /kaggle/working/100kaggle_final_crt_mtf_hierarchy_2025_2026.py; using embedded standalone CPU loader/features/labels
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+ [22:00:58] BASE TRAINER=/kaggle/working/100kaggle_final_crt_mtf_hierarchy_2025_2026.py DATA_ROOT=/kaggle/input/datasets/femiogunmola/volatility-100index/Volatility_100_Index
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+ [22:00:58] LOAD M1 START
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+ [22:01:11] LOAD M1 COMPLETE: rows=1381588 start=2024-01-01 00:00:00 end=2026-08-17 14:15:00
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+ [22:01:11] LOAD M5 START
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+ [22:01:13] LOAD M5 COMPLETE: rows=276354 start=2024-01-01 00:00:00 end=2026-08-17 14:45:00
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+ [22:01:13] LOAD H1 START
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+ [22:01:13] LOAD H1 COMPLETE: rows=23031 start=2024-01-01 00:00:00 end=2026-08-17 14:00:00
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+ [22:01:13] LOAD H4 START
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+ [22:01:13] LOAD H4 COMPLETE: rows=5758 start=2024-01-01 00:00:00 end=2026-08-17 12:00:00
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+ [22:01:13] ======================== OUTCOME LABELS ========================
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+ [22:01:13] BARRIER LABEL 1.5 START
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+ [22:01:19] BARRIER LABEL 1.5 COMPLETE
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+ [22:01:19] BARRIER LABEL 2.0 START
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+ [22:01:25] BARRIER LABEL 2.0 COMPLETE
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+ [22:01:25] BARRIER LABEL 4.0 START
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+ [22:01:31] BARRIER LABEL 4.0 COMPLETE
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+ [22:01:32] SPLITS: backtest_rows=1124436 validation_rows=128148 fronttest_rows=129004 pure_crt_features=13
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+ [22:01:33] HF uploaded optimization_cpu_nemotron/20260822T220051Z/optimizer_config.json
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+ [22:01:33] ======================== ITERATIVE OPTIMIZATION ========================
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+ [22:01:33] CYCLE 1 START: 10 Pure CRT + 10 Deep CRT candidates
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+ [22:01:33] OPT iteration 1/100 strategy=pure validation_1.5=45.00% opportunities=240 score=53.886
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+ [22:01:33] OPT iteration 2/100 strategy=pure validation_1.5=49.17% opportunities=240 score=58.935
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+ [22:01:34] OPT iteration 3/100 strategy=pure validation_1.5=42.61% opportunities=10680 score=52.330
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+ [22:01:34] OPT iteration 4/100 strategy=pure validation_1.5=42.35% opportunities=8760 score=51.818
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+ [22:01:34] OPT iteration 5/100 strategy=pure validation_1.5=46.85% opportunities=540 score=56.195
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+ [22:01:35] OPT iteration 6/100 strategy=pure validation_1.5=46.85% opportunities=540 score=56.195
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+ [22:01:35] OPT iteration 7/100 strategy=pure validation_1.5=42.46% opportunities=4140 score=51.330
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+ [22:01:35] OPT iteration 8/100 strategy=pure validation_1.5=41.97% opportunities=10680 score=51.426
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+ [22:01:36] OPT iteration 9/100 strategy=pure validation_1.5=42.12% opportunities=12120 score=51.813
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+ [22:01:36] OPT iteration 10/100 strategy=pure validation_1.5=49.17% opportunities=240 score=58.935
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+ [22:01:37] OPT iteration 11/100 strategy=deep validation_1.5=39.40% opportunities=840 score=46.922
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+ [22:01:46] OPT iteration 12/100 strategy=deep validation_1.5=0.00% opportunities=0 score=-0.300
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+ [22:01:57] OPT iteration 13/100 strategy=deep validation_1.5=0.00% opportunities=0 score=-0.300
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+ [22:02:09] OPT iteration 14/100 strategy=deep validation_1.5=0.00% opportunities=0 score=-0.300
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+ [22:02:18] OPT iteration 15/100 strategy=deep validation_1.5=0.00% opportunities=0 score=-0.300
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+ [22:02:19] OPT iteration 16/100 strategy=deep validation_1.5=34.33% opportunities=600 score=40.213
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+ [22:02:30] OPT iteration 17/100 strategy=deep validation_1.5=0.00% opportunities=0 score=-0.300
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+ [22:02:40] OPT iteration 18/100 strategy=deep validation_1.5=0.00% opportunities=0 score=-0.300
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+ [22:02:49] OPT iteration 19/100 strategy=deep validation_1.5=0.00% opportunities=0 score=-0.300
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+ [22:02:50] OPT iteration 20/100 strategy=deep validation_1.5=38.15% opportunities=1080 score=45.229
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+ [22:02:50] CYCLE 1 pure SUMMARY: best_score=58.935 validation_1.5=49.17% validation_4=30.83% opportunities=240
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+ [22:02:50] CYCLE 1 deep SUMMARY: best_score=46.922 validation_1.5=39.40% validation_4=20.27% opportunities=840
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+ [22:02:51] HF uploaded optimization_cpu_nemotron/20260822T220051Z/cycle_01_candidates.json
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+ [22:03:19] NEMOTRON API call succeeded: call_count_last_minute=1
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+ [22:03:19] HF uploaded optimization_cpu_nemotron/20260822T220051Z/nemotron_cycle_01.json
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+ [22:03:20] HF uploaded optimization_cpu_nemotron/20260822T220051Z/optimizer_state_cycle_01.json
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+ [22:03:20] NEMOTRON cycle 1 complete: iterations=20 target_hit=False no_improve_cycles=0
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+ [22:03:20] CYCLE 1 COMPLETE: elapsed=107.3s