"""Compute daily/annual detection metrics and a 7x7 occlusion trend map.""" import sys from pathlib import Path import numpy as np import torch ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT)) from model.precipdd import correlation, ensemble_predict, linear_trend, load_config, load_ensemble, write_json def main(): import matplotlib matplotlib.use("Agg") import matplotlib.pyplot as plt config = load_config(ROOT / "conf/config.yaml") values = np.load(ROOT / config["paths"]["predictions"]) prediction, target, year = values["prediction"], values["target"], values["year"].astype(float) if prediction.shape != target.shape or values["precipitation"].shape[1:] != (1, 55, 160): raise ValueError("inference output violates scalar target or [N,1,55,160] input contract") years = np.unique(year).astype(int) annual_prediction = np.array([prediction[year == current].mean() for current in years]) annual_target = np.array([target[year == current].mean() for current in years]) threshold = config["evaluation"]["emergence_threshold_c"] em_fraction = np.array([(prediction[year == current] > threshold).mean() for current in years]) metrics = { "daily": {"correlation": correlation(target, prediction), "rmse_c": float(np.sqrt(np.mean((prediction - target) ** 2)))}, "annual": {"correlation": correlation(annual_target, annual_prediction), "rmse_c": float(np.sqrt(np.mean((annual_prediction - annual_target) ** 2)))}, "emergence": {"threshold_c": threshold, "fraction_all_days": float((prediction > threshold).mean()), "fraction_trend_per_decade": linear_trend(em_fraction, years.astype(float))}, "trend_c_per_decade": {"daily_prediction": linear_trend(prediction, year), "annual_prediction": linear_trend(annual_prediction, years.astype(float)), "annual_target": linear_trend(annual_target, years.astype(float))}, "samples": {"daily": len(prediction), "years": len(years)} } device = torch.device("cuda" if torch.cuda.is_available() and config["runtime"]["device"] != "cpu" else "cpu") models, _ = load_ensemble(ROOT / config["paths"]["checkpoint"], device) count = min(config["evaluation"]["occlusion_max_days"], len(prediction)) indices = np.linspace(0, len(prediction) - 1, count, dtype=int) selected = torch.from_numpy(values["precipitation"][indices]).float().to(device) baseline = ensemble_predict(models, selected).cpu().numpy() selected_year = year[indices] patch, stride = config["evaluation"]["occlusion_patch"], config["evaluation"]["occlusion_stride"] half = patch // 2 sensitivity = np.zeros((55, 160), dtype=np.float32) for lat_start in range(0, 55, stride): for lon_start in range(0, 160, stride): masked = selected.clone() lat_stop, lon_stop = min(lat_start + patch, 55), min(lon_start + patch, 160) masked[:, :, lat_start:lat_stop, lon_start:lon_stop] = 0.0 delta = baseline - ensemble_predict(models, masked).cpu().numpy() score = linear_trend(delta, selected_year) if np.ptp(selected_year) else float(delta.mean()) sensitivity[lat_start:min(lat_start + stride, 55), lon_start:min(lon_start + stride, 160)] = score metrics["occlusion"] = {"patch": [patch, patch], "map_shape": [55, 160], "stride": stride, "sampled_days": count, "quantity": "AGMT occlusion-sensitivity trend in degC per decade"} write_json(ROOT / config["paths"]["evaluation_metrics"], metrics) fig, axes = plt.subplots(3, 1, figsize=(11, 11), constrained_layout=True) axes[0].plot(years, annual_target, color="#202020", label="target AGMT") axes[0].plot(years, annual_prediction, color="#c84c32", label="DD estimate") axes[0].axhline(threshold, color="#777777", linestyle="--", label="0.42 C EM threshold") axes[0].set(ylabel="AGMT anomaly (C)", title="Annual mean of daily estimates") axes[0].legend(ncol=3) axes[1].plot(years, em_fraction, color="#196f82") axes[1].set(xlabel="Year", ylabel="Fraction", ylim=(-0.03, 1.03), title="Emergence days (estimated AGMT > 0.42 C)") limit = float(np.max(np.abs(sensitivity))) or 1e-6 image = axes[2].imshow(sensitivity, origin="lower", aspect="auto", extent=(0, 400, values["latitude"][0], values["latitude"][-1]), cmap="RdBu_r", vmin=-limit, vmax=limit) axes[2].set(xlabel="Longitude (degrees E, extended)", ylabel="Latitude", title="7x7 occlusion-sensitivity trend") fig.colorbar(image, ax=axes[2], label="C decade-1") figure = ROOT / config["paths"]["comparison_figure"] figure.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) fig.savefig(figure, dpi=160) plt.close(fig) print(f"metrics={config['paths']['evaluation_metrics']} figure={config['paths']['comparison_figure']}") if __name__ == "__main__": main()