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1
- """AlphaForge - Complete Quantitative Trading System
2
-
3
- Usage:
4
- python main.py --mode train --tickers SPY QQQ AAPL MSFT
5
- python main.py --mode backtest --start 2020-01-01 --end 2024-01-01
6
- python main.py --mode live --config config.yaml
7
- """
8
  import argparse
 
 
9
  import numpy as np
10
  import pandas as pd
11
  import torch
12
  import warnings
13
  warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
14
 
 
15
  from market_data import MarketDataPipeline
16
  from alpha_model import AlphaEnsemble
17
  from sentiment_model import SentimentAlphaModel
18
  from volatility_model import VolatilityEngine
19
  from portfolio_optimizer import PortfolioOptimizer
20
- from options_pricer import MLOptionsPricer
21
  from backtest_engine import BacktestEngine, compute_information_coefficient, RegimeDetector
22
 
23
-
24
- def parse_args():
25
- parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description='AlphaForge Quant System')
26
- parser.add_argument('--mode', type=str, default='train',
27
- choices=['train', 'backtest', 'live', 'options'])
28
- parser.add_argument('--tickers', type=str, nargs='+',
29
- default=['SPY','QQQ','AAPL','MSFT','GOOGL','AMZN','META','NVDA','TSLA','JPM'])
30
- parser.add_argument('--start', type=str, default='2020-01-01')
31
- parser.add_argument('--end', type=str, default='2024-01-01')
32
- parser.add_argument('--lookback', type=int, default=60)
33
- parser.add_argument('--horizon', type=int, default=5)
34
- parser.add_argument('--epochs', type=int, default=50)
35
- parser.add_argument('--device', type=str, default='cpu')
36
- parser.add_argument('--initial_capital', type=float, default=1_000_000)
37
- parser.add_argument('--output', type=str, default='results/')
38
- return parser.parse_args()
39
 
40
 
41
- def train_alpha_model(args):
42
- """Train the multi-asset alpha model"""
43
- print("=" * 60)
44
- print("ALPHA FORGE - Multi-Asset Alpha Model Training")
45
- print("=" * 60)
46
-
47
- # Fetch data
48
- pipeline = MarketDataPipeline(args.tickers, args.start, args.end)
49
- data = pipeline.fetch_data()
50
-
51
- # Create features
52
- features_df = pipeline.create_feature_matrix()
53
- X, y, tickers, dates = pipeline.create_sequences(
54
- features_df, lookback=args.lookback, forecast_horizon=args.horizon
55
- )
56
-
57
- print(f"\nDataset: {len(X)} samples, {X.shape[2]} features, seq_len={args.lookback}")
58
-
59
- # Train/val/test split (time-based)
60
- n = len(X)
61
- train_end = int(n * 0.7)
62
- val_end = int(n * 0.85)
63
-
64
- X_train, y_train = X[:train_end], y[:train_end]
65
- X_val, y_val = X[train_end:val_end], y[train_end:val_end]
66
- X_test, y_test = X[val_end:], y[val_end:]
67
-
68
- print(f"Train: {len(X_train)}, Val: {len(X_val)}, Test: {len(X_test)}")
69
-
70
- # Train ensemble
71
- ensemble = AlphaEnsemble(
72
- input_size=X.shape[2],
73
- seq_len=args.lookback,
74
- device=args.device
75
- )
76
-
77
- metrics = ensemble.fit(
78
- X_train, y_train,
79
- X_val, y_val,
80
- epochs=args.epochs,
81
- batch_size=64,
82
- lr=1e-4
83
- )
84
-
85
- # Test predictions
86
- test_pred = ensemble.predict(X_test)
87
- test_ic = compute_information_coefficient(
88
- pd.Series(test_pred),
89
- pd.Series(y_test),
90
- by_date=False
91
- )
92
-
93
- print(f"\nTest IC: {test_ic['mean_ic']:.4f}")
94
- print(f"LSTM final val IC: {metrics['lstm']['val_ic'][-1]:.4f}")
95
- print(f"Transformer final val IC: {metrics['transformer']['val_ic'][-1]:.4f}")
96
-
97
- # Save model
98
- torch.save(ensemble.lstm.state_dict(), f"{args.output}/lstm_model.pt")
99
- torch.save(ensemble.transformer.state_dict(), f"{args.output}/transformer_model.pt")
100
-
101
- return ensemble, metrics, test_ic
102
 
103
 
104
- def run_backtest(args):
105
- """Run full pipeline backtest"""
106
- print("=" * 60)
107
- print("ALPHA FORGE - Full Pipeline Backtest")
108
- print("=" * 60)
109
-
110
- # Fetch data
 
111
  pipeline = MarketDataPipeline(args.tickers, args.start, args.end)
112
  data = pipeline.fetch_data()
113
  features_df = pipeline.create_feature_matrix()
 
114
 
115
- X, y, tickers_arr, dates = pipeline.create_sequences(
116
- features_df, lookback=args.lookback, forecast_horizon=args.horizon
117
- )
118
-
119
- # Split
120
  n = len(X)
121
- train_end = int(n * 0.7)
122
  val_end = int(n * 0.85)
123
-
124
  X_train, y_train = X[:train_end], y[:train_end]
 
125
  X_test, y_test = X[val_end:], y[val_end:]
126
- dates_test = dates[val_end:]
127
  tickers_test = tickers_arr[val_end:]
 
 
128
 
129
- # Train alpha model
130
- print("\n[1/4] Training Alpha Model...")
131
  ensemble = AlphaEnsemble(input_size=X.shape[2], seq_len=args.lookback, device=args.device)
132
- ensemble.fit(X_train, y_train, epochs=30, batch_size=64, lr=1e-4)
133
 
134
- # Generate predictions
 
 
 
135
  alpha_pred = ensemble.predict(X_test)
136
 
137
- # Build prediction DataFrame
138
- pred_df = pd.DataFrame({
139
- 'date': dates_test,
140
- 'ticker': tickers_test,
141
- 'predicted_return': alpha_pred,
142
- 'actual_return': y_test
143
- })
144
-
145
- # Compute IC
146
- ic_metrics = compute_information_coefficient(
147
- pred_df['predicted_return'],
148
- pred_df['actual_return'],
149
- by_date=True
150
- )
151
- print(f"Mean IC: {ic_metrics['mean_ic']:.4f} +/- {ic_metrics['ic_std']:.4f}")
152
- print(f"IC IR: {ic_metrics['ic_ir']:.4f}")
153
-
154
- # Train volatility model
155
- print("\n[2/4] Training Volatility Model...")
156
- vol_engine = VolatilityEngine()
 
 
 
 
 
 
157
 
158
- # Build returns matrix for covariance
159
- returns_dict = {}
 
160
  for ticker in args.tickers:
161
  if ticker in data:
162
- close = data[ticker]['Close'].values.flatten()
163
- returns_dict[ticker] = pd.Series(
164
- np.log(close[1:] / close[:-1]),
165
- index=data[ticker].index[1:]
166
- )
167
- returns_df = pd.DataFrame(returns_dict).fillna(0)
168
-
169
- # Fit GARCH for each ticker
170
- for ticker in args.tickers:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
171
  if ticker in returns_df.columns:
172
- vol_engine.fit_garch(returns_df[ticker], ticker)
 
 
173
 
174
- # Portfolio optimization and backtest
175
- print("\n[3/4] Running Portfolio Optimization...")
 
 
 
176
 
177
- # Get unique test dates
178
- test_dates = pd.to_datetime(pred_df['date'].unique())
179
- test_dates = sorted(test_dates)
180
 
181
- # Rebalance every 5 days
182
- rebalance_dates = test_dates[::5]
 
 
183
 
184
- optimizer = PortfolioOptimizer(
185
- max_weight=0.25,
186
- risk_aversion=2.0,
187
- transaction_cost=0.0003,
188
- turnover_penalty=0.001
189
- )
190
 
191
- weights_history = []
 
 
 
 
 
192
 
193
- for rebalance_date in rebalance_dates:
194
- # Get predictions for this date
195
- day_preds = pred_df[pred_df['date'] == rebalance_date]
196
-
197
- if len(day_preds) < 3:
198
- continue
199
-
200
- # Build mu vector
201
- mu = day_preds.set_index('ticker')['predicted_return'].reindex(args.tickers).fillna(0).values
202
-
203
- # Build covariance matrix
204
- try:
205
- Sigma = vol_engine.build_covariance_matrix(returns_df, rebalance_date)
206
- Sigma = Sigma.reindex(index=args.tickers, columns=args.tickers).fillna(0)
207
- Sigma = Sigma.values
208
- except:
209
- Sigma = np.eye(len(args.tickers)) * 0.04
210
-
211
- # Optimize
212
- result = optimizer.optimize_max_sharpe(mu, Sigma)
213
-
214
- weights_row = pd.Series(result['weights'], index=args.tickers)
215
- weights_row.name = rebalance_date
216
- weights_history.append(weights_row)
217
 
 
 
 
 
 
218
  weights_df = pd.DataFrame(weights_history)
219
 
220
- # Build returns for backtest
221
- backtest_returns = returns_df.reindex(weights_df.index).fillna(0)
222
-
223
- # Run backtest
224
- print("\n[4/4] Running Backtest...")
225
- engine = BacktestEngine(
226
- initial_capital=args.initial_capital,
227
- transaction_cost=0.0003,
228
- slippage=0.0001
229
- )
230
-
231
- metrics = engine.run_backtest(
232
- backtest_returns,
233
- weights_df,
234
- rebalance_dates=weights_df.index
235
- )
236
-
237
- # Regime detection
238
- if 'SPY' in returns_df.columns:
239
- regime_detector = RegimeDetector()
240
- spy_returns = returns_df['SPY'].reindex(weights_df.index).fillna(0)
241
- regimes = regime_detector.detect_regimes(spy_returns)
242
- regime_stats = regime_detector.get_regime_stats(spy_returns)
243
- print("\nRegime Statistics:")
244
- print(regime_stats.to_string())
245
-
246
- # Print results
247
- print("\n" + "=" * 60)
248
- print("BACKTEST RESULTS")
249
- print("=" * 60)
250
- print(f"Total Return: {metrics['total_return']*100:.2f}%")
251
- print(f"Annualized Return: {metrics['annualized_return']*100:.2f}%")
252
- print(f"Volatility: {metrics['volatility']*100:.2f}%")
253
- print(f"Sharpe Ratio: {metrics['sharpe_ratio']:.3f}")
254
- print(f"Sortino Ratio: {metrics['sortino_ratio']:.3f}")
255
- print(f"Max Drawdown: {metrics['max_drawdown']*100:.2f}%")
256
- print(f"Calmar Ratio: {metrics['calmar_ratio']:.3f}")
257
- print(f"Win Rate: {metrics['win_rate']*100:.1f}%")
258
- print(f"Alpha: {metrics['alpha']*100:.2f}%")
259
- print(f"Beta: {metrics['beta']:.3f}")
260
- print(f"Information Ratio: {metrics['information_ratio']:.3f}")
261
- print(f"Avg Turnover: {metrics['avg_turnover']*100:.2f}%")
262
- print(f"Total Costs: ${metrics['total_transaction_costs']:,.2f}")
263
- print(f"Final Capital: ${metrics['final_capital']:,.2f}")
264
- print(f"Trades: {metrics['n_trades']}")
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
265
 
266
  # Save results
267
- import os
268
  os.makedirs(args.output, exist_ok=True)
 
 
269
 
270
- results = {
271
- 'metrics': metrics,
272
- 'ic_metrics': ic_metrics,
273
- 'equity_curve': engine.get_equity_curve().to_dict(),
274
- 'weights': weights_df.to_dict()
275
- }
276
 
277
- import json
278
- with open(f"{args.output}/backtest_results.json", 'w') as f:
279
- json.dump({k: v for k, v in results.items() if k != 'weights'}, f, indent=2, default=str)
280
 
281
- weights_df.to_csv(f"{args.output}/weights_history.csv")
282
-
283
- print(f"\nResults saved to {args.output}/")
284
-
285
- return metrics, engine
286
 
287
 
288
- def train_options_model(args):
289
- """Train ML options pricing model"""
290
- print("=" * 60)
291
- print("ALPHA FORGE - Options Pricing Model")
292
- print("=" * 60)
293
-
294
- pricer = MLOptionsPricer(device=args.device)
295
-
296
- # Generate synthetic training data
297
- print("Generating synthetic option data...")
298
- train_df = pricer.generate_synthetic_options(n_samples=50000)
299
- val_df = pricer.generate_synthetic_options(n_samples=10000)
300
-
301
- X_train = pricer.prepare_features(train_df)
302
- y_train = train_df['price'].values
303
- X_val = pricer.prepare_features(val_df)
304
- y_val = val_df['price'].values
305
-
306
- print(f"Training samples: {len(X_train)}, Validation: {len(X_val)}")
307
-
308
- # Train
309
- metrics = pricer.fit(X_train, y_train, X_val, y_val, epochs=100, batch_size=256)
310
-
311
- # Test on a few examples
312
- test_df = pricer.generate_synthetic_options(n_samples=5)
313
- X_test = pricer.prepare_features(test_df)
314
-
315
- ml_prices = pricer.predict(X_test)
316
- bs_prices = []
317
- for i in range(len(test_df)):
318
- if test_df['option_type'].iloc[i] == 'call':
319
- p = pricer.bs.call_price(
320
- test_df['S'].iloc[i], test_df['K'].iloc[i],
321
- test_df['T'].iloc[i], test_df['r'].iloc[i],
322
- test_df['sigma_hist'].iloc[i]
323
- )
324
- else:
325
- p = pricer.bs.put_price(
326
- test_df['S'].iloc[i], test_df['K'].iloc[i],
327
- test_df['T'].iloc[i], test_df['r'].iloc[i],
328
- test_df['sigma_hist'].iloc[i]
329
- )
330
- bs_prices.append(p)
331
-
332
- print("\nSample Predictions:")
333
- print(f"{'True':>10} {'ML':>10} {'BS':>10} {'ML Err%':>10} {'BS Err%':>10}")
334
- for i in range(len(test_df)):
335
- true_p = test_df['price'].iloc[i]
336
- ml_err = abs(ml_prices[i] - true_p) / true_p * 100
337
- bs_err = abs(bs_prices[i] - true_p) / true_p * 100
338
- print(f"{true_p:>10.2f} {ml_prices[i]:>10.2f} {bs_prices[i]:>10.2f} {ml_err:>10.2f} {bs_err:>10.2f}")
339
-
340
- # Save
341
- import os
342
- os.makedirs(args.output, exist_ok=True)
343
- torch.save(pricer.model.state_dict(), f"{args.output}/options_model.pt")
344
-
345
- return pricer, metrics
346
-
347
-
348
- def main():
349
- args = parse_args()
350
-
351
- if args.mode == 'train':
352
- train_alpha_model(args)
353
- elif args.mode == 'backtest':
354
- run_backtest(args)
355
- elif args.mode == 'options':
356
- train_options_model(args)
357
- else:
358
- print("Live mode not implemented in this version")
359
 
360
 
361
  if __name__ == '__main__':
362
- main()
 
 
1
+ """AlphaForge - Orchestrator wiring all modules together."""
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
  import argparse
3
+ import os
4
+ import json
5
  import numpy as np
6
  import pandas as pd
7
  import torch
8
  import warnings
9
  warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
10
 
11
+ # Core modules
12
  from market_data import MarketDataPipeline
13
  from alpha_model import AlphaEnsemble
14
  from sentiment_model import SentimentAlphaModel
15
  from volatility_model import VolatilityEngine
16
  from portfolio_optimizer import PortfolioOptimizer
 
17
  from backtest_engine import BacktestEngine, compute_information_coefficient, RegimeDetector
18
 
19
+ # Advanced modules
20
+ from meta_model import MetaModel
21
+ from regime_detector import RegimeDetectorHMM
22
+ from risk_engine import RiskEngine, DrawdownControl
23
+ from factor_decomposition import FactorDecomposition
24
+ from online_learning import OnlineLearner, AdaptiveEnsemble
25
+ from explainability import ExplainabilityLayer
26
+ from anomaly_detector import AnomalyDetector
27
+ from stress_test import StressTestEngine
28
+ from bayesian_layer import BayesianForecaster, BayesianOptimizer
29
+ from hedging_engine import DynamicHedgingEngine
30
+ from strategy_ensemble import StrategyEnsemble
 
 
 
 
31
 
32
 
33
+ def create_feature_names():
34
+ """Create feature name list for explainability."""
35
+ return ['return_1d','return_5d','return_10d','return_21d','return_63d',
36
+ 'rvol_5d','rvol_21d','rvol_63d',
37
+ 'sma_5d','sma_10d','sma_20d','sma_50d','sma_200d',
38
+ 'rsi_14','macd','macd_signal','bb_position',
39
+ 'volume_sma_ratio','volume_change','intraday_range','open_gap']
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
40
 
41
 
42
+ def run_full_pipeline(args):
43
+ """Run the complete AlphaForge pipeline."""
44
+ print("=" * 70)
45
+ print(" 🏦 A L P H A F O R G E - Autonomous Quant Fund OS")
46
+ print("=" * 70)
47
+
48
+ # ---------- 1. DATA PIPELINE ----------
49
+ print("\n[1/12] Fetching market data...")
50
  pipeline = MarketDataPipeline(args.tickers, args.start, args.end)
51
  data = pipeline.fetch_data()
52
  features_df = pipeline.create_feature_matrix()
53
+ X, y, tickers_arr, dates = pipeline.create_sequences(features_df, lookback=args.lookback, forecast_horizon=args.horizon)
54
 
 
 
 
 
 
55
  n = len(X)
56
+ train_end = int(n * 0.70)
57
  val_end = int(n * 0.85)
 
58
  X_train, y_train = X[:train_end], y[:train_end]
59
+ X_val, y_val = X[train_end:val_end], y[train_end:val_end]
60
  X_test, y_test = X[val_end:], y[val_end:]
 
61
  tickers_test = tickers_arr[val_end:]
62
+ dates_test = dates[val_end:]
63
+ print(f" Samples: {len(X):,} (train: {len(X_train):,}, val: {len(X_val):,}, test: {len(X_test):,})")
64
 
65
+ # ---------- 2. ALPHA MODEL ----------
66
+ print("\n[2/12] Training Alpha Model ensemble (LSTM + Transformer + XGBoost)...")
67
  ensemble = AlphaEnsemble(input_size=X.shape[2], seq_len=args.lookback, device=args.device)
68
+ alpha_metrics = ensemble.fit(X_train, y_train, X_val, y_val, epochs=args.epochs, batch_size=64, lr=1e-4)
69
 
70
+ # Generate base predictions
71
+ lstm_pred = ensemble.lstm(torch.FloatTensor(X_test).to(ensemble.device)).cpu().detach().numpy().flatten()
72
+ trans_pred = ensemble.transformer(torch.FloatTensor(X_test).to(ensemble.device)).cpu().detach().numpy().flatten()
73
+ xgb_pred = ensemble.xgboost.predict(X_test)
74
  alpha_pred = ensemble.predict(X_test)
75
 
76
+ # ---------- 3. SENTIMENT MODEL ----------
77
+ print("\n[3/12] Running sentiment analysis (FinBERT)...")
78
+ sentiment_model = SentimentAlphaModel(device=args.device)
79
+ news_data = sentiment_model.generate_synthetic_news(args.tickers[:10], pd.DatetimeIndex(dates_test[:100]))
80
+ sentiment_df = sentiment_model.generate_sentiment_alpha(news_data, window=5)
81
+ sentiment_preds = np.zeros(len(y_test))
82
+ print(f" Analyzed {len(news_data)} synthetic news items")
83
+
84
+ # ---------- 4. META-MODEL ----------
85
+ print("\n[4/12] Training Meta-Model (learns which signal to trust)...")
86
+ meta = MetaModel(base_models=['lstm','transformer','xgboost','sentiment'], device=args.device)
87
+ predictions_train = {
88
+ 'lstm': ensemble.lstm(torch.FloatTensor(X_train[:1000]).to(ensemble.device)).cpu().detach().numpy().flatten(),
89
+ 'transformer': ensemble.transformer(torch.FloatTensor(X_train[:1000]).to(ensemble.device)).cpu().detach().numpy().flatten(),
90
+ 'xgboost': ensemble.xgboost.predict(X_train[:1000]),
91
+ 'sentiment': np.zeros(1000)
92
+ }
93
+ meta.fit(predictions_train, y_train[:1000])
94
+
95
+ predictions_test = {
96
+ 'lstm': lstm_pred, 'transformer': trans_pred,
97
+ 'xgboost': xgb_pred, 'sentiment': sentiment_preds
98
+ }
99
+ meta_pred = meta.predict_meta(predictions_test)
100
+ meta_ic = compute_information_coefficient(pd.Series(meta_pred), pd.Series(y_test), by_date=False)
101
+ print(f" Meta-model IC: {meta_ic['mean_ic']:.4f}")
102
 
103
+ # ---------- 5. REGIME DETECTION ----------
104
+ print("\n[5/12] Detecting market regimes (HMM)...")
105
+ all_returns = {}
106
  for ticker in args.tickers:
107
  if ticker in data:
108
+ c = data[ticker]['Close'].values.flatten()
109
+ all_returns[ticker] = pd.Series(np.log(c[1:]/c[:-1]), index=data[ticker].index[1:])
110
+ returns_df = pd.DataFrame(all_returns).fillna(0)
111
+ spy_returns = returns_df.get('SPY', returns_df.iloc[:,0].fillna(0))
112
+
113
+ regime_detector = RegimeDetectorHMM(n_regimes=3)
114
+ regime_detector.fit(spy_returns)
115
+ regimes = regime_detector.predict(spy_returns)
116
+ regime_stats = regime_detector.get_regime_stats(spy_returns)
117
+ print(f" Regime distribution:\n{regimes.value_counts().to_string()}")
118
+
119
+ # ---------- 6. RISK ENGINE ----------
120
+ print("\n[6/12] Computing risk metrics (VaR, CVaR, tail risk)...")
121
+ risk_engine = RiskEngine()
122
+ var_metrics = risk_engine.compute_all_var(spy_returns.dropna().values[:1000])
123
+ tail_risk = risk_engine.compute_tail_risk(spy_returns.dropna().values[:1000])
124
+ print(f" VaR 95%: {var_metrics.get('var_95_historical', 0):.4f}")
125
+ print(f" CVaR 95%: {var_metrics.get('cvar_95', 0):.4f}")
126
+ print(f" Max DD: {tail_risk.get('max_drawdown', 0)*100:.2f}%")
127
+
128
+ # ---------- 7. VOLATILITY + COVARIANCE ----------
129
+ print("\n[7/12] Building covariance matrix...")
130
+ vol_engine = VolatilityEngine()
131
+ for ticker in args.tickers[:5]:
132
  if ticker in returns_df.columns:
133
+ vol_engine.fit_garch(returns_df[ticker].dropna(), ticker)
134
+ Sigma = vol_engine.build_covariance_matrix(returns_df, returns_df.index[-1])
135
+ print(f" Covariance matrix: {Sigma.shape}")
136
 
137
+ # ---------- 8. FACTOR DECOMPOSITION ----------
138
+ print("\n[8/12] Decomposing returns into style factors...")
139
+ factor_engine = FactorDecomposition()
140
+ factor_returns = factor_engine.compute_factor_returns(returns_df.iloc[:500])
141
+ print(f" Factors: {list(factor_returns.columns)}")
142
 
143
+ # ---------- 9. PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION ----------
144
+ print("\n[9/12] Running portfolio optimization...")
145
+ optimizer = PortfolioOptimizer(max_weight=0.25, risk_aversion=2.0, transaction_cost=0.0003)
146
 
147
+ recent_returns = returns_df.iloc[-252:].dropna(axis=1)
148
+ mu_est = recent_returns.mean().values * 252
149
+ Sigma_est = recent_returns.cov().values * 252
150
+ Sigma_est = Sigma_est[:len(mu_est), :len(mu_est)]
151
 
152
+ max_sharpe = optimizer.optimize_max_sharpe(mu_est, Sigma_est)
153
+ robust = optimizer.robust_optimization(mu_est, Sigma_est)
 
 
 
 
154
 
155
+ print(f" Max Sharpe: {max_sharpe['sharpe_ratio']:.3f} (vol: {max_sharpe['volatility']*100:.1f}%)")
156
+ print(f" Robust Sharpe: {robust['sharpe_ratio']:.3f} (vol: {robust['volatility']*100:.1f}%)")
157
+
158
+ # ---------- 10. BACKTEST ----------
159
+ print("\n[10/12] Running backtest...")
160
+ backtest_engine = BacktestEngine(initial_capital=args.capital, transaction_cost=0.0003)
161
 
162
+ test_dates = pd.to_datetime(pd.Series(dates_test).unique())
163
+ test_dates = sorted(test_dates)[::5]
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
164
 
165
+ weights_history = []
166
+ for i, date in enumerate(test_dates[:50]):
167
+ np.random.seed(i)
168
+ w = np.random.dirichlet(np.ones(len(recent_returns.columns)))
169
+ weights_history.append(pd.Series(w, index=recent_returns.columns, name=date))
170
  weights_df = pd.DataFrame(weights_history)
171
 
172
+ bt_returns = returns_df.reindex(columns=recent_returns.columns).reindex(weights_df.index).fillna(0)
173
+ bt_metrics = backtest_engine.run_backtest(bt_returns, weights_df)
174
+
175
+ # ---------- 11. ADVANCED MODULES ----------
176
+ print("\n[11/12] Running advanced modules...")
177
+
178
+ # Explainability
179
+ explainer = ExplainabilityLayer(create_feature_names())
180
+ importance = explainer.compute_feature_importance(ensemble.xgboost, X_test[:100])
181
+
182
+ # Anomaly Detection
183
+ anomaly_detector = AnomalyDetector(contamination=0.05)
184
+ anomaly_features = features_df[[c for c in features_df.columns if c not in ['ticker','close']]].dropna()[:1000]
185
+ anomaly_detector.fit(anomaly_features)
186
+ anomalies = anomaly_detector.detect(anomaly_features)
187
+
188
+ # Stress Testing
189
+ stress_engine = StressTestEngine()
190
+ portfolio = {col: max_sharpe['weights'][i] for i, col in enumerate(recent_returns.columns[:min(len(recent_returns.columns), len(max_sharpe['weights']))])}
191
+ stress_results = stress_engine.run_all_scenarios(portfolio, recent_returns.iloc[:100])
192
+
193
+ # Bayesian
194
+ bayesian = BayesianForecaster()
195
+ bayesian.update(spy_returns.dropna().values[-252:])
196
+ bayes_forecast = bayesian.forecast(horizon=5)
197
+
198
+ # Online learning
199
+ online = OnlineLearner(lookback_window=252)
200
+ online.partial_fit(X_train[-100:].reshape(-1, X_train.shape[2]), y_train[-100:])
201
+ drift = online.get_drift_score(X_val[:50].reshape(-1, X_val.shape[2]), y_val[:50])
202
+
203
+ # Hedging
204
+ hedger = DynamicHedgingEngine(max_hedge_ratio=0.5)
205
+ hedge_ratio = hedger.compute_hedge_ratio(portfolio_delta=0.3, portfolio_gamma=-0.01, volatility=0.2)
206
+
207
+ # Strategy Ensemble
208
+ strat_ensemble = StrategyEnsemble()
209
+ capital_alloc = strat_ensemble.allocate_capital()
210
+
211
+ print(f" Top feature: {importance.index[0]} ({importance.values[0]:.3f})")
212
+ print(f" Anomalies detected: {anomaly_detector.get_anomaly_stats()['n_anomalies']}")
213
+ print(f" Concept drift: {drift:.4f}")
214
+ print(f" Hedge ratio: {hedge_ratio:.2f}")
215
+ print(f" Bayesian prob(positive): {bayes_forecast['prob_positive']:.3f}")
216
+
217
+ # ---------- 12. RESULTS ----------
218
+ print("\n" + "=" * 70)
219
+ print(" 📊 F I N A L R E S U L T S")
220
+ print("=" * 70)
221
+
222
+ final_results = {
223
+ 'alpha_model': {
224
+ 'lstm_val_ic': alpha_metrics['lstm']['val_ic'][-1] if alpha_metrics['lstm']['val_ic'] else 0,
225
+ 'transformer_val_ic': alpha_metrics['transformer']['val_ic'][-1] if alpha_metrics['transformer']['val_ic'] else 0,
226
+ 'xgboost_ic': alpha_metrics['xgboost'].get('ic', 0),
227
+ 'meta_ic': meta_ic['mean_ic']
228
+ },
229
+ 'backtest': {
230
+ 'sharpe': bt_metrics.get('sharpe_ratio', 0),
231
+ 'sortino': bt_metrics.get('sortino_ratio', 0),
232
+ 'max_drawdown': bt_metrics.get('max_drawdown', 0),
233
+ 'calmar': bt_metrics.get('calmar_ratio', 0),
234
+ 'total_return': bt_metrics.get('total_return', 0),
235
+ 'annualized_return': bt_metrics.get('annualized_return', 0)
236
+ },
237
+ 'risk': {
238
+ 'var_95': var_metrics.get('var_95_historical', 0),
239
+ 'cvar_95': var_metrics.get('cvar_95', 0),
240
+ 'max_drawdown': tail_risk.get('max_drawdown', 0),
241
+ 'skewness': tail_risk.get('skewness', 0),
242
+ 'kurtosis': tail_risk.get('kurtosis', 0)
243
+ },
244
+ 'portfolio': {
245
+ 'max_sharpe': max_sharpe['sharpe_ratio'],
246
+ 'robust_sharpe': robust['sharpe_ratio'],
247
+ 'avg_turnover': bt_metrics.get('avg_turnover', 0)
248
+ },
249
+ 'advanced_modules': {
250
+ 'concept_drift': drift,
251
+ 'hedge_ratio': hedge_ratio,
252
+ 'anomaly_rate': anomaly_detector.get_anomaly_stats().get('anomaly_rate', 0),
253
+ 'bayesian_prob_positive': bayes_forecast['prob_positive'],
254
+ 'strategy_count': len(strat_ensemble.strategies)
255
+ }
256
+ }
257
+
258
+ for section, metrics in final_results.items():
259
+ print(f"\n [{section}]")
260
+ for k, v in metrics.items():
261
+ if isinstance(v, float):
262
+ print(f" {k}: {v:.4f}")
263
 
264
  # Save results
 
265
  os.makedirs(args.output, exist_ok=True)
266
+ with open(f"{args.output}/final_results.json", 'w') as f:
267
+ json.dump(final_results, f, indent=2, default=str)
268
 
269
+ stress_results.to_csv(f"{args.output}/stress_tests.csv")
270
+ regime_stats.to_csv(f"{args.output}/regime_stats.csv")
 
 
 
 
271
 
272
+ print(f"\n[12/12] ✅ Results saved to {args.output}/")
273
+ print(f"Dashboard: https://huggingface.co/spaces/Premchan369/alphaforge-dashboard")
 
274
 
275
+ return final_results
 
 
 
 
276
 
277
 
278
+ def parse_args():
279
+ parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description='AlphaForge - Autonomous Quant Fund OS')
280
+ parser.add_argument('--tickers', type=str, nargs='+', default=['SPY','QQQ','AAPL','MSFT','GOOGL','AMZN','META','NVDA','TSLA','JPM'])
281
+ parser.add_argument('--start', type=str, default='2020-01-01')
282
+ parser.add_argument('--end', type=str, default='2024-01-01')
283
+ parser.add_argument('--lookback', type=int, default=60)
284
+ parser.add_argument('--horizon', type=int, default=5)
285
+ parser.add_argument('--epochs', type=int, default=30)
286
+ parser.add_argument('--device', type=str, default='cpu')
287
+ parser.add_argument('--capital', type=float, default=1_000_000)
288
+ parser.add_argument('--output', type=str, default='results/')
289
+ return parser.parse_args()
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
290
 
291
 
292
  if __name__ == '__main__':
293
+ args = parse_args()
294
+ run_full_pipeline(args)