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2026-04-09 04:54:01,214 [INFO] Intervention Benchmark — testing causal effect validity
2026-04-09 04:54:01,214 [INFO] 
--- Causal Structure Tests ---
2026-04-09 04:54:01,336 [INFO] Loading faiss with AVX512 support.
2026-04-09 04:54:01,399 [INFO] Successfully loaded faiss with AVX512 support.
2026-04-09 04:54:02,236 [INFO]   confounded (seed 1/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:03,411 [INFO]     RMSE=0.893 DirAcc=0.000 TrajCorr=0.000
2026-04-09 04:54:03,411 [INFO]   confounded (seed 2/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:03,993 [INFO]     RMSE=1.043 DirAcc=0.000 TrajCorr=0.000
2026-04-09 04:54:03,994 [INFO]   confounded (seed 3/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:04,675 [INFO]     RMSE=0.333 DirAcc=0.000 TrajCorr=0.000
2026-04-09 04:54:04,675 [INFO]   confounded (seed 4/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:05,365 [INFO]     RMSE=0.286 DirAcc=0.000 TrajCorr=0.000
2026-04-09 04:54:05,365 [INFO]   confounded (seed 5/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:06,165 [INFO]     RMSE=0.853 DirAcc=0.000 TrajCorr=0.000
2026-04-09 04:54:06,166 [INFO]   mediated (seed 1/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:06,978 [INFO]     RMSE=0.846 DirAcc=0.833 TrajCorr=0.263
2026-04-09 04:54:06,978 [INFO]   mediated (seed 2/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:07,669 [INFO]     RMSE=0.583 DirAcc=0.283 TrajCorr=-0.392
2026-04-09 04:54:07,669 [INFO]   mediated (seed 3/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:08,584 [INFO]     RMSE=1.298 DirAcc=0.683 TrajCorr=-0.318
2026-04-09 04:54:08,584 [INFO]   mediated (seed 4/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:09,269 [INFO]     RMSE=0.713 DirAcc=0.300 TrajCorr=-0.579
2026-04-09 04:54:09,269 [INFO]   mediated (seed 5/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:10,274 [INFO]     RMSE=1.021 DirAcc=0.233 TrajCorr=0.488
2026-04-09 04:54:10,274 [INFO]   time_varying_confounded (seed 1/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:10,666 [INFO]     RMSE=0.235 DirAcc=1.000 TrajCorr=0.000
2026-04-09 04:54:10,666 [INFO]   time_varying_confounded (seed 2/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:11,291 [INFO]     RMSE=0.506 DirAcc=1.000 TrajCorr=0.000
2026-04-09 04:54:11,291 [INFO]   time_varying_confounded (seed 3/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:12,081 [INFO]     RMSE=0.180 DirAcc=1.000 TrajCorr=0.000
2026-04-09 04:54:12,081 [INFO]   time_varying_confounded (seed 4/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:12,865 [INFO]     RMSE=0.448 DirAcc=1.000 TrajCorr=0.000
2026-04-09 04:54:12,865 [INFO]   time_varying_confounded (seed 5/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:13,484 [INFO]     RMSE=0.680 DirAcc=1.000 TrajCorr=0.000
2026-04-09 04:54:13,484 [INFO]   feedback (seed 1/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:14,178 [INFO]     RMSE=0.216 DirAcc=1.000 TrajCorr=0.000
2026-04-09 04:54:14,178 [INFO]   feedback (seed 2/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:15,076 [INFO]     RMSE=0.419 DirAcc=1.000 TrajCorr=0.000
2026-04-09 04:54:15,076 [INFO]   feedback (seed 3/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:16,089 [INFO]     RMSE=0.632 DirAcc=1.000 TrajCorr=0.000
2026-04-09 04:54:16,089 [INFO]   feedback (seed 4/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:16,783 [INFO]     RMSE=0.076 DirAcc=1.000 TrajCorr=0.000
2026-04-09 04:54:16,783 [INFO]   feedback (seed 5/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:17,674 [INFO]     RMSE=0.223 DirAcc=1.000 TrajCorr=0.000
2026-04-09 04:54:17,674 [INFO]   instrumental_variable (seed 1/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:18,378 [INFO]     RMSE=0.915 DirAcc=1.000 TrajCorr=0.876
2026-04-09 04:54:18,378 [INFO]   instrumental_variable (seed 2/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:19,191 [INFO]     RMSE=0.831 DirAcc=0.783 TrajCorr=-0.887
2026-04-09 04:54:19,191 [INFO]   instrumental_variable (seed 3/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:19,577 [INFO]     RMSE=0.708 DirAcc=1.000 TrajCorr=-0.649
2026-04-09 04:54:19,577 [INFO]   instrumental_variable (seed 4/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:20,078 [INFO]     RMSE=0.162 DirAcc=1.000 TrajCorr=-0.367
2026-04-09 04:54:20,078 [INFO]   instrumental_variable (seed 5/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:20,480 [INFO]     RMSE=0.919 DirAcc=1.000 TrajCorr=0.917
2026-04-09 04:54:20,480 [INFO]   non_identifiable (seed 1/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:20,966 [INFO]     RMSE=0.268 DirAcc=1.000 TrajCorr=-0.970
2026-04-09 04:54:20,966 [INFO]   non_identifiable (seed 2/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:21,378 [INFO]     RMSE=0.248 DirAcc=1.000 TrajCorr=0.490
2026-04-09 04:54:21,378 [INFO]   non_identifiable (seed 3/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:21,736 [INFO]     RMSE=0.121 DirAcc=1.000 TrajCorr=-0.703
2026-04-09 04:54:21,736 [INFO]   non_identifiable (seed 4/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:22,167 [INFO]     RMSE=0.246 DirAcc=1.000 TrajCorr=0.217
2026-04-09 04:54:22,167 [INFO]   non_identifiable (seed 5/5)
2026-04-09 04:54:22,645 [INFO]     RMSE=0.601 DirAcc=1.000 TrajCorr=-0.409
2026-04-09 04:54:22,645 [INFO] 
--- Temporal Intervention Scenarios ---
2026-04-09 04:54:22,645 [INFO] 
Scenario: Step Intervention
2026-04-09 04:54:22,645 [INFO]   Seed 1/5 (seed=42)
2026-04-09 04:54:23,887 [INFO]     RMSE=0.4248 ATE_err=0.0578 DirAcc=0.578
2026-04-09 04:54:23,887 [INFO]   Seed 2/5 (seed=142)
2026-04-09 04:54:25,199 [INFO]     RMSE=0.3083 ATE_err=0.0097 DirAcc=0.556
2026-04-09 04:54:25,199 [INFO]   Seed 3/5 (seed=242)
2026-04-09 04:54:26,680 [INFO]     RMSE=0.4416 ATE_err=0.0539 DirAcc=0.511
2026-04-09 04:54:26,680 [INFO]   Seed 4/5 (seed=342)
2026-04-09 04:54:27,973 [INFO]     RMSE=0.3954 ATE_err=0.1642 DirAcc=0.511
2026-04-09 04:54:27,973 [INFO]   Seed 5/5 (seed=442)
2026-04-09 04:54:29,087 [INFO]     RMSE=0.6695 ATE_err=0.3789 DirAcc=0.533
2026-04-09 04:54:29,164 [INFO] 
Scenario: Dose-Response Curve
2026-04-09 04:54:29,164 [INFO]   Seed 1/5 (seed=42)
2026-04-09 04:55:42,566 [INFO]     RMSE=0.2550 ATE_err=0.0132 DirAcc=0.578
2026-04-09 04:55:42,566 [INFO]   Seed 2/5 (seed=142)
2026-04-09 04:56:44,799 [INFO]     RMSE=0.1873 ATE_err=0.0254 DirAcc=0.589
2026-04-09 04:56:44,799 [INFO]   Seed 3/5 (seed=242)
2026-04-09 04:57:48,565 [INFO]     RMSE=0.2736 ATE_err=0.0589 DirAcc=0.511
2026-04-09 04:57:48,565 [INFO]   Seed 4/5 (seed=342)
2026-04-09 04:58:52,675 [INFO]     RMSE=0.2455 ATE_err=0.1624 DirAcc=0.511
2026-04-09 04:58:52,675 [INFO]   Seed 5/5 (seed=442)
2026-04-09 04:59:57,885 [INFO]     RMSE=0.4179 ATE_err=0.4102 DirAcc=0.533
2026-04-09 04:59:57,885 [INFO] 
Scenario: Policy Comparison
2026-04-09 04:59:57,885 [INFO]   Seed 1/5 (seed=42)
2026-04-09 05:00:32,476 [INFO]     RMSE=0.0230 ATE_err=0.0102 DirAcc=1.000
2026-04-09 05:00:32,476 [INFO]   Seed 2/5 (seed=142)
2026-04-09 05:01:10,676 [INFO]     RMSE=0.0214 ATE_err=0.0133 DirAcc=0.000
2026-04-09 05:01:10,676 [INFO]   Seed 3/5 (seed=242)
2026-04-09 05:01:48,781 [INFO]     RMSE=0.0536 ATE_err=0.0462 DirAcc=0.000
2026-04-09 05:01:48,781 [INFO]   Seed 4/5 (seed=342)
2026-04-09 05:02:25,480 [INFO]     RMSE=0.0844 ATE_err=0.0438 DirAcc=1.000
2026-04-09 05:02:25,481 [INFO]   Seed 5/5 (seed=442)
2026-04-09 05:03:03,275 [INFO]     RMSE=0.2676 ATE_err=0.1943 DirAcc=1.000
2026-04-09 05:03:03,276 [INFO] 
Scenario: Intervention Timing
2026-04-09 05:03:03,276 [INFO]   Seed 1/5 (seed=42)
2026-04-09 05:03:03,792 [INFO]   Timing t=50: RMSE=0.2253 ATE_err=0.0555
2026-04-09 05:03:04,591 [INFO]   Timing t=100: RMSE=0.2310 ATE_err=0.1003
2026-04-09 05:03:05,464 [INFO]   Timing t=200: RMSE=0.2434 ATE_err=0.1261
2026-04-09 05:03:06,264 [INFO]   Timing t=500: RMSE=0.2513 ATE_err=0.1282
2026-04-09 05:03:06,265 [INFO]     RMSE=0.2377 ATE_err=0.1025 DirAcc=0.517
2026-04-09 05:03:06,265 [INFO]   Seed 2/5 (seed=142)
2026-04-09 05:03:06,864 [INFO]   Timing t=50: RMSE=0.5513 ATE_err=0.3532
2026-04-09 05:03:07,664 [INFO]   Timing t=100: RMSE=0.4284 ATE_err=0.0595
2026-04-09 05:03:08,464 [INFO]   Timing t=200: RMSE=0.7875 ATE_err=0.6660
2026-04-09 05:03:09,278 [INFO]   Timing t=500: RMSE=0.4397 ATE_err=0.0154
2026-04-09 05:03:09,278 [INFO]     RMSE=0.5518 ATE_err=0.2735 DirAcc=0.438
2026-04-09 05:03:09,278 [INFO]   Seed 3/5 (seed=242)
2026-04-09 05:03:09,864 [INFO]   Timing t=50: RMSE=0.3754 ATE_err=0.2597
2026-04-09 05:03:10,566 [INFO]   Timing t=100: RMSE=0.3403 ATE_err=0.2084
2026-04-09 05:03:11,491 [INFO]   Timing t=200: RMSE=0.4809 ATE_err=0.3954
2026-04-09 05:03:12,264 [INFO]   Timing t=500: RMSE=0.2722 ATE_err=0.0156
2026-04-09 05:03:12,265 [INFO]     RMSE=0.3672 ATE_err=0.2198 DirAcc=0.508
2026-04-09 05:03:12,265 [INFO]   Seed 4/5 (seed=342)
2026-04-09 05:03:12,864 [INFO]   Timing t=50: RMSE=0.4183 ATE_err=0.3306
2026-04-09 05:03:13,664 [INFO]   Timing t=100: RMSE=0.5142 ATE_err=0.4501
2026-04-09 05:03:14,483 [INFO]   Timing t=200: RMSE=0.3095 ATE_err=0.1712
2026-04-09 05:03:15,264 [INFO]   Timing t=500: RMSE=0.2533 ATE_err=0.0399
2026-04-09 05:03:15,265 [INFO]     RMSE=0.3738 ATE_err=0.2480 DirAcc=0.575
2026-04-09 05:03:15,265 [INFO]   Seed 5/5 (seed=442)
2026-04-09 05:03:15,864 [INFO]   Timing t=50: RMSE=0.4634 ATE_err=0.1056
2026-04-09 05:03:16,579 [INFO]   Timing t=100: RMSE=0.4908 ATE_err=0.1791
2026-04-09 05:03:17,264 [INFO]   Timing t=200: RMSE=0.7385 ATE_err=0.5837
2026-04-09 05:03:17,987 [INFO]   Timing t=500: RMSE=0.6197 ATE_err=0.4199
2026-04-09 05:03:17,988 [INFO]     RMSE=0.5781 ATE_err=0.3221 DirAcc=0.554

================================================================================
INTERVENTION BENCHMARK — Causal Structure Tests
================================================================================
Structure                     RMSE   DirAcc   TrajCorr  NullDet   TrueMean   PredMean
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
confounded                   0.682    0.000      0.000    0.000      0.000      0.681
mediated                     0.892    0.467     -0.108      N/A      0.551     -0.090
time_varying_confounded      0.410    1.000      0.000      N/A      0.591      0.183
feedback                     0.313    1.000      0.000      N/A      0.515      0.544
instrumental_variable        0.707    0.957     -0.022      N/A      0.877      0.234
non_identifiable             0.297    1.000     -0.275      N/A      0.600      0.856

================================================================================
INTERVENTION BENCHMARK — Temporal Intervention Scenarios
================================================================================
Scenario                   Seeds    Traj RMSE    ATE Error    Dir Acc
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  step                         5 0.4479+/-0.120 0.1329+/-0.133 0.538+/-0.03
  dose_response                5 0.2759+/-0.077 0.1340+/-0.148 0.544+/-0.03
  policy                       5 0.0900+/-0.092 0.0616+/-0.068 0.600+/-0.49
  timing                       5 0.4217+/-0.127 0.2332+/-0.073 0.518+/-0.05

2026-04-09 05:03:17,991 [INFO] Results saved to outputs/benchmarks/intervention_results.json