{ "prompt": 2, "orders": 1, "method": "temperature per question type and per option-count bucket (choice), by NLL, fitted on the out-of-distribution calibration split only; thresholds per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted held-out calibration decisions (10 family folds, each refitted without its families) have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers", "temperature_per_prim": { "choice": 1.3542555469368927, "noul": 2.4130090616010436, "score": 2.3107053937445454 }, "temperature_per_bucket": { "choice": { "2-10": 1.6339154532410998, "11-26": 1.2782470235604306, "27-255": 0.9038571383911009 } }, "thresholds": { "0.01": { "confidence": null, "method": "per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted held-out calibration decisions (10 family folds, each refitted without its families) have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers", "per_type": { "choice": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null }, "noul": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null }, "score": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null } }, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null }, "0.05": { "confidence": null, "method": "per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted held-out calibration decisions (10 family folds, each refitted without its families) have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers", "per_type": { "choice": { "confidence": 0.9343460250507047, "heldout_coverage": 0.5076638032676436, "heldout_error": 0.029694757796947524 }, "noul": { "confidence": 0.8903203843605327, "heldout_coverage": 0.4565752128666036, "heldout_error": 0.013675922088686288 }, "score": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null } }, "heldout_coverage": 0.4191786264090977, "heldout_error": 0.02511550764127468 } }, "gates": { "ece_lofo": { "choice": { "pooled": 0.02410796982582807, "n": 11874, "gate": 0.05, "pass": true }, "noul": { "pooled": 0.04203932516042977, "n": 5285, "gate": 0.05, "pass": true }, "score": { "pooled": 0.03959409092958942, "n": 2978, "gate": 0.05, "pass": true } }, "ece_worst_fold": 0.0984699552179725, "worst_fold": "agent", "automated_at": { "0.01": 0.0, "0.05": 0.4191786264090977 }, "automated_error": { "0.01": null, "0.05": 0.02511550764127468 }, "note": "held-out numbers: every evaluation row predicted by the fit without its family" }, "test": { "T": { "choice": { "acc": 0.8283644938521139, "ece": 0.022511433054648682, "n": 11874 }, "noul": { "acc": 0.868306527909177, "ece": 0.04224814168670232, "n": 5285 }, "score": { "acc": 0.6638683680322364, "ece": 0.039465735336162315, "n": 2978 }, "all": { "acc": 0.8145205343397726, "ece": 0.02335889271209342, "n": 20137 } }, "note": "evaluation pool (development and test splits), full fit" }, "n": { "fit": 3560, "many": 1500, "eval": 20137 }, "engine": "fast", "fitted_on": { "split": "out-of-distribution calibration split (sealed-seed BH-, JDI- and agent-shaped families, many-option items)", "orders": 1, "readouts": "basal-serve --mode fast, bf16" }, "certified_on": "the same split (held-out folds)", "evaluated_on": "development and test splits, leave-one-family-out and leave-one-language-out" }