{ "prompt": 2, "orders": 1, "method": "temperature per question type and per option-count bucket (choice), by NLL, fitted on the out-of-distribution calibration split only; thresholds per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted calibration decisions have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers", "temperature_per_prim": { "choice": 1.2599210498948732, "noul": 1.8077142767822016, "score": 1.9152065613971467 }, "temperature_per_bucket": { "choice": { "2-10": 1.6339154532410998, "11-26": 0.9576032806985735, "27-255": 0.8908987181403392 } }, "thresholds": { "0.01": { "confidence": null, "method": "per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted calibration decisions have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers", "per_type": { "choice": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null }, "noul": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null }, "score": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null } }, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null }, "0.05": { "confidence": null, "method": "per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted calibration decisions have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers", "per_type": { "choice": { "confidence": 0.9742985069680388, "heldout_coverage": 0.09929257200606367, "heldout_error": 0.02714164546225617 }, "noul": { "confidence": 0.9150695844754617, "heldout_coverage": 0.17540208136234625, "heldout_error": 0.032362459546925515 }, "score": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null } }, "heldout_coverage": 0.10458360232408005, "heldout_error": 0.029439696106362767 } }, "gates": { "ece_lofo": { "choice": { "pooled": 0.02387151080828603, "n": 11874, "gate": 0.05, "pass": true }, "noul": { "pooled": 0.021839571101782813, "n": 5285, "gate": 0.05, "pass": true }, "score": { "pooled": 0.02874265417372889, "n": 2978, "gate": 0.05, "pass": true } }, "ece_worst_fold": 0.09937081230552766, "worst_fold": "agent", "automated_at": { "0.01": 0.0, "0.05": 0.10458360232408005 }, "automated_error": { "0.01": null, "0.05": 0.029439696106362767 }, "note": "held-out numbers: every evaluation row predicted by the fit without its family" }, "test": { "T": { "choice": { "acc": 0.697321879737241, "ece": 0.02472238570054493, "n": 11874 }, "noul": { "acc": 0.7547776726584674, "ece": 0.02311121112045783, "n": 5285 }, "score": { "acc": 0.5278710543989255, "ece": 0.028084103544725424, "n": 2978 }, "all": { "acc": 0.6873417092913542, "ece": 0.01744498690342251, "n": 20137 } }, "note": "evaluation pool (development and test splits), full fit" }, "n": { "fit": 3560, "many": 1500, "eval": 20137 }, "engine": "fast", "fitted_on": { "split": "out-of-distribution calibration split (sealed-seed BH-, JDI- and agent-shaped families, many-option items)", "orders": 1, "readouts": "basal-serve --mode fast, bf16" }, "certified_on": "the same split", "evaluated_on": "development and test splits, leave-one-family-out and leave-one-language-out" }