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README.md
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---
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tags:
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- time-series
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- agriculture
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- forecasting
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- tabular
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---
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# crop_yield_prediction_transformer
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## Overview
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A specialized Time-Series Transformer model built to predict agricultural crop yields based on historical growth patterns, soil moisture sensors, and meteorological forecasts. It outputs a probabilistic distribution of expected yield (tonnes/hectare) for the upcoming harvest cycle.
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## Model Architecture
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The architecture is based on a standard Encoder-Decoder Time-Series Transformer.
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- **Input Embedding:** Maps multi-variate features (temperature, rainfall, soil pH, nitrogen levels) into a dense vector space.
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- **Positional Encoding:** Injected to maintain the temporal order of growing seasons.
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- **Decoder:** Generates a 15-day prediction horizon based on a 30-day context window of environmental data.
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## Intended Use
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- **Precision Agriculture:** Helping farmers optimize fertilizer and water usage.
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- **Food Security:** Enabling governments to forecast domestic food production levels.
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- **Crop Insurance:** Providing data-driven risk assessment for insurance payouts based on climatic anomalies.
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## Limitations
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- **Extreme Weather Events:** Black swan events like sudden locust swarms or unprecedented floods are not captured by historical patterns.
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- **Local Specificity:** A model trained on European wheat data will not generalize to tropical rice paddies without extensive fine-tuning.
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- **Static Features:** Assumes consistent farming practices; sudden changes in technology or equipment are not modeled.
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