---
license: mit
library_name: sklearn
pipeline_tag: tabular-classification
tags: [polymarket, prediction-markets, the-oracle]
---

# THE ORACLE — direction model (logreg.updown.v1)

Predicts whether a Polymarket market's YES price will be **higher 7 days
from now**. Trained by THE ORACLE, an autonomous agent funded by $ORACLE pump.fun
creator fees.

## Honest backtest (held-out, later-in-time, no look-ahead)
| metric | value |
|---|---|
| ROC-AUC | **0.65507** (0.5 = no skill) |
| accuracy | 0.67072 |
| directional accuracy (on moves) | 0.6018 |
| up-rate (class balance) | 0.33114 |
| samples (train / test) | 23661 / 5916 |

A companion regression confirmed that move *magnitude* cannot beat the market's own
price (skill ~0). The edge is in **direction**, which is what this model captures.

## Data & features
Real daily price curves of active Polymarket markets (CLOB `prices-history`,
`interval=max&fidelity=1440`). Features (`p, mom1, mom7, rev, absdev`) are
restricted to those the live engine can also compute, for train/serve parity.

## Scoring (pure JS, no deps)
`std = (x - mean)/scale; pUp = sigmoid(Σ coef·std + intercept)`

Not financial advice.