Upload RainMap Nowcasting demo model

README.md

@@ -5,12 +5,13 @@ tags:
 - precipitation-nowcasting
 - rainmap
 - pytorch
-- demo
+- sevir
+- fine-tuning
 ---
 
 # RainMap Nowcasting
 
-This repository hosts the demo weights for
+This repository hosts model weights for
 [`TechieMoon/rainmap-nowcasting`](https://github.com/TechieMoon/rainmap-nowcasting).
 
 ## Intended use
@@ -20,15 +21,36 @@ frames. Pixel intensity is interpreted as `0..255 -> 0..1` rain intensity.
 
 ## Important warning
 
-These first weights are trained on synthetic moving rain blobs only. They are
-for validating installation, model download, inference, and the local client.
-They are not suitable for operational weather forecasting.
+Small SEVIR VIL subset fine-tuned benchmark model. Not for operational weather forecasting.
+
+## Model
+
+- Dataset: `SEVIR VIL mini local fine-tune`
+- Weights: `rainmap-nowcasting-sevir-finetuned.safetensors`
+- Input frames: `6`
+- Target frames: `6`
+- Image size: `[64, 64]`
 
 ## Files
 
-- `rainmap-nowcasting-demo.safetensors`: PyTorch state dict.
+- `rainmap-nowcasting-sevir-finetuned.safetensors`: PyTorch state dict.
 - `model_config.json`: architecture, frame count, image size, and encoding.
-- `training_metrics.json`: synthetic-demo training metrics.
+- `training_metrics.json`: training metrics.
+
+
+## Benchmark
+
+- Dataset: `data\sevir_mini\local\val`
+- Sequences: 4
+
+| Model | MAE | RMSE | CSI@0.3 | HSS@0.3 | ETS@0.3 | FSS@0.3/w15 |
+| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
+| persistence | 0.0406 | 0.0930 | 0.5944 | 0.7117 | 0.5524 | 0.9675 |
+| base | 0.0764 | 0.0983 | 0.6432 | 0.7520 | 0.6026 | 0.9605 |
+| fine_tuned | 0.0694 | 0.0888 | 0.6699 | 0.7747 | 0.6323 | 0.9727 |
+
+Small-subset benchmark results are not operational forecasting claims.
+
 
 ## Example
 

benchmark_results.json

@@ -0,0 +1,201 @@
+{
+  "dataset": "data\\sevir_mini\\local\\val",
+  "sequence_count": 4,
+  "input_frames": 6,
+  "target_frames": 6,
+  "image_size": [
+    64,
+    64
+  ],
+  "thresholds": [
+    0.1,
+    0.3,
+    0.5
+  ],
+  "fss_windows": [
+    5,
+    15
+  ],
+  "models": {
+    "persistence": {
+      "continuous": {
+        "mse": 0.0086515536531806,
+        "mae": 0.040590811520814896,
+        "rmse": 0.09301372830491529,
+        "bias": -0.005234941840171814
+      },
+      "categorical": {
+        "0.100": {
+          "threshold": 0.1,
+          "hits": 18704,
+          "misses": 5214,
+          "false_alarms": 3754,
+          "correct_negatives": 70632,
+          "csi": 0.6759178953454755,
+          "pod": 0.7820051843799649,
+          "far": 0.16715646985484015,
+          "bias_score": 0.9389581068651225,
+          "hss": 0.7470071795677934,
+          "ets": 0.5961783398807673,
+          "f1": 0.8066241159220287
+        },
+        "0.300": {
+          "threshold": 0.3,
+          "hits": 8627,
+          "misses": 3138,
+          "false_alarms": 2749,
+          "correct_negatives": 83790,
+          "csi": 0.5943916218823205,
+          "pod": 0.7332766680832979,
+          "far": 0.2416490857946554,
+          "bias_score": 0.9669358266043349,
+          "hss": 0.7116766203150466,
+          "ets": 0.552405266827557,
+          "f1": 0.7456030422194374
+        },
+        "0.500": {
+          "threshold": 0.5,
+          "hits": 3018,
+          "misses": 1598,
+          "false_alarms": 1224,
+          "correct_negatives": 92464,
+          "csi": 0.5167808219178082,
+          "pod": 0.6538128249566725,
+          "far": 0.28854314002828857,
+          "bias_score": 0.9189774696707106,
+          "hss": 0.6664153579740525,
+          "ets": 0.499717330998692,
+          "f1": 0.6814179272973583
+        }
+      },
+      "fss": {
+        "0.100/w5": 0.9372061464199974,
+        "0.100/w15": 0.9764737604166347,
+        "0.300/w5": 0.9126242762769905,
+        "0.300/w15": 0.9675365843173683,
+        "0.500/w5": 0.8918994826891421,
+        "0.500/w15": 0.9581558810543496
+      }
+    },
+    "base": {
+      "continuous": {
+        "mse": 0.009671105071902275,
+        "mae": 0.07636328786611557,
+        "rmse": 0.09834177683925725,
+        "bias": 0.04423200711607933
+      },
+      "categorical": {
+        "0.100": {
+          "threshold": 0.1,
+          "hits": 22325,
+          "misses": 1593,
+          "false_alarms": 12811,
+          "correct_negatives": 61575,
+          "csi": 0.6078303248114569,
+          "pod": 0.9333974412576302,
+          "far": 0.3646117941712204,
+          "bias_score": 1.4690191487582573,
+          "hss": 0.6566909633613045,
+          "ets": 0.4888606757269452,
+          "f1": 0.7560876485928134
+        },
+        "0.300": {
+          "threshold": 0.3,
+          "hits": 9573,
+          "misses": 2192,
+          "false_alarms": 3119,
+          "correct_negatives": 83420,
+          "csi": 0.6431738779897876,
+          "pod": 0.8136846578835529,
+          "far": 0.24574535140245823,
+          "bias_score": 1.0787930301742457,
+          "hss": 0.7520431433348714,
+          "ets": 0.6026195050881246,
+          "f1": 0.7828433577298933
+        },
+        "0.500": {
+          "threshold": 0.5,
+          "hits": 2416,
+          "misses": 2200,
+          "false_alarms": 1043,
+          "correct_negatives": 92645,
+          "csi": 0.42693055310125466,
+          "pod": 0.5233968804159446,
+          "far": 0.30153223474992774,
+          "bias_score": 0.7493500866551126,
+          "hss": 0.5815567970880625,
+          "ets": 0.4099965341539078,
+          "f1": 0.5983900928792569
+        }
+      },
+      "fss": {
+        "0.100/w5": 0.8650857307735962,
+        "0.100/w15": 0.8942029916245129,
+        "0.300/w5": 0.917750068696638,
+        "0.300/w15": 0.9604584356241297,
+        "0.500/w5": 0.7832568884442832,
+        "0.500/w15": 0.8284828639349342
+      }
+    },
+    "fine_tuned": {
+      "continuous": {
+        "mse": 0.00788073893636465,
+        "mae": 0.06935159862041473,
+        "rmse": 0.08877352610077315,
+        "bias": 0.04346604645252228
+      },
+      "categorical": {
+        "0.100": {
+          "threshold": 0.1,
+          "hits": 22170,
+          "misses": 1748,
+          "false_alarms": 10756,
+          "correct_negatives": 63630,
+          "csi": 0.6393839764665167,
+          "pod": 0.9269169663015302,
+          "far": 0.32667193099678066,
+          "bias_score": 1.376620118739025,
+          "hss": 0.6936929393420658,
+          "ets": 0.5310335986339082,
+          "f1": 0.7800295545704032
+        },
+        "0.300": {
+          "threshold": 0.3,
+          "hits": 9662,
+          "misses": 2103,
+          "false_alarms": 2658,
+          "correct_negatives": 83881,
+          "csi": 0.6699022394786106,
+          "pod": 0.8212494687632809,
+          "far": 0.21574675324675324,
+          "bias_score": 1.0471738206544836,
+          "hss": 0.774745476171518,
+          "ets": 0.6323139079305055,
+          "f1": 0.8023250986090928
+        },
+        "0.500": {
+          "threshold": 0.5,
+          "hits": 3316,
+          "misses": 1300,
+          "false_alarms": 1168,
+          "correct_negatives": 92520,
+          "csi": 0.5733056708160442,
+          "pod": 0.7183708838821491,
+          "far": 0.2604817127564674,
+          "bias_score": 0.9714038128249567,
+          "hss": 0.7156320075122369,
+          "ets": 0.5571861115334165,
+          "f1": 0.7287912087912088
+        }
+      },
+      "fss": {
+        "0.100/w5": 0.894221578387859,
+        "0.100/w15": 0.9220996486261381,
+        "0.300/w5": 0.9374744122653408,
+        "0.300/w15": 0.9727353417913653,
+        "0.500/w5": 0.918602789224389,
+        "0.500/w15": 0.9648734820178924
+      }
+    }
+  }
+}

model_config.json

@@ -13,7 +13,8 @@
     "max_mm_per_hour": 50.0,
     "description": "Linear placeholder scale for MVP demos; calibrate with real data before use."
   },
-  "weights": "rainmap-nowcasting-demo.safetensors",
-  "created_at": "2026-05-06T14:03:12.088504+00:00",
-  "warning": "Demo model only. Not for operational weather forecasting."
+  "weights": "rainmap-nowcasting-sevir-finetuned.safetensors",
+  "dataset_name": "SEVIR VIL mini local fine-tune",
+  "created_at": "2026-05-12T06:54:47.260938+00:00",
+  "warning": "Small SEVIR VIL subset fine-tuned benchmark model. Not for operational weather forecasting."
 }

rainmap-nowcasting-sevir-finetuned.safetensors

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
+oid sha256:be3498e0dfc6eb6d3aa580449c0012a7784d556d5d61faa838e7a85fadc1bd69
+size 492304

training_metrics.json

@@ -1,35 +1,63 @@
 {
   "config": {
-    "train_dir": "data\\demo\\train",
-    "val_dir": "data\\demo\\val",
-    "output_dir": "runs\\demo",
+    "train_dir": "data\\sevir_mini\\local\\train",
+    "val_dir": "data\\sevir_mini\\local\\val",
+    "output_dir": "runs\\sevir-finetuned",
     "input_frames": 6,
     "target_frames": 6,
     "image_size": [
       64,
       64
     ],
-    "batch_size": 4,
-    "epochs": 1,
-    "learning_rate": 0.001,
+    "batch_size": 8,
+    "epochs": 5,
+    "learning_rate": 0.0001,
     "base_channels": 8,
     "num_workers": 0,
     "seed": 42,
     "device": "auto",
     "amp": true,
-    "checkpoint_name": "rainmap-nowcasting-demo.safetensors"
+    "checkpoint_name": "rainmap-nowcasting-sevir-finetuned.safetensors",
+    "resume_from": "runs\\sevir-base\\rainmap-nowcasting-sevir-base.safetensors",
+    "dataset_name": "SEVIR VIL mini local fine-tune",
+    "model_warning": "Small SEVIR VIL subset fine-tuned benchmark model. Not for operational weather forecasting."
   },
   "device": "cpu",
-  "train_samples": 84,
-  "val_samples": 28,
+  "train_samples": 152,
+  "val_samples": 152,
   "history": [
     {
       "epoch": 1,
-      "train_mse": 0.09050992024796349,
-      "val_mse": 0.08037208499653,
-      "val_mae": 0.2364002104316439
+      "train_mse": 0.009678943915978858,
+      "val_mse": 0.008939616921308794,
+      "val_mae": 0.07144552077117719
+    },
+    {
+      "epoch": 2,
+      "train_mse": 0.008931465912610292,
+      "val_mse": 0.008647265770521603,
+      "val_mae": 0.06976475743086714
+    },
+    {
+      "epoch": 3,
+      "train_mse": 0.008475367739600571,
+      "val_mse": 0.008904078950811373,
+      "val_mae": 0.07051817798300793
+    },
+    {
+      "epoch": 4,
+      "train_mse": 0.008088804560860521,
+      "val_mse": 0.00873093365838653,
+      "val_mae": 0.06940647508752973
+    },
+    {
+      "epoch": 5,
+      "train_mse": 0.007787488449953105,
+      "val_mse": 0.008748720694137247,
+      "val_mae": 0.0691864206210563
     }
   ],
-  "best_val_mse": 0.08037208499653,
-  "warning": "Synthetic demo data only."
+  "best_val_mse": 0.008647265770521603,
+  "warning": "Small SEVIR VIL subset fine-tuned benchmark model. Not for operational weather forecasting.",
+  "resume_from": "runs\\sevir-base\\rainmap-nowcasting-sevir-base.safetensors"
 }