docs: sync logs/round2_reviewer_audit.json

logs/round2_reviewer_audit.json

@@ -19661,33 +19661,62 @@
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@@ -19721,55 +19778,112 @@
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@@ -19827,31 +19941,60 @@
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@@ -19909,31 +20052,60 @@
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@@ -19989,1051 +20161,398 @@
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@@ -27377,84 +26278,93 @@
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         "delta_nzauc": -0.0004,
+        "se": 0.00059,
         "delta_nzauc_ci95": [
-          -0.0017,
-          0.0009
+          -0.0016,
+          0.0008
         ]
       },
       "MeanAblate_Macro_K63_K127": {
-        "centered_l2_pct": 33.42,
+        "centered_l2_pct": 37.07,
         "delta_nzauc": -0.0008,
+        "se": 0.00066,
         "delta_nzauc_ci95": [
-          -0.002,
-          0.0004
+          -0.0021,
+          0.0005
         ]
       }
     },
     "random_341ch_25draws": {
       "centered_l2_mean_pct": 20.61,
       "centered_l2_sd_pct": 0.9,
-      "delta_nzauc_mean": -0.0004,
-      "delta_nzauc_sd": 0.0005,
+      "delta_nzauc_mean": -0.0003,
+      "delta_nzauc_sd": 0.0004,
       "paired_ci95": [
-        -0.0014,
-        0.0008
+        -0.0011,
+        0.0005
       ]
     },
     "random_682ch_25draws": {
@@ -41585,62 +40495,147 @@
     }
   },
   "benchmarks_1bar_delay_and_dsr": {
-    "60m_buy_and_hold_annualized_sharpe": {
-      "2024": 0.42,
-      "2025": 0.38,
-      "2026": -0.31,
-      "dsr_trial_count_note": "N/A (M=1, unsearched benchmark)"
+    "step_grid_specification": {
+      "holding_period": "60m (non-overlapping steps, S_60m = 2 windows = 64 minutes)",
+      "n_chronological_portfolio_steps_per_year": 258,
+      "n_tickers": 15,
+      "execution_delay_note": "1-bar delayed execution approximated by y_{delay,t,60m} = y_{t,60m} - y_{t,1m}, removing prompt continuation flow"
     },
-    "60m_market_neutral_annualized_sharpe": {
-      "2024": 0.21,
-      "2025": 0.14,
-      "2026": 0.08
+    "benchmarks_synchronous_258_steps": {
+      "Equal_Weight_Buy_and_Hold": {
+        "2024": {
+          "n_trades": 15,
+          "n_steps": 258,
+          "turnover_per_trade": 0.0,
+          "gross_mean_ret_bps": 0.55,
+          "breakeven_one_way_bps": "N/A",
+          "annualized_sharpe_0bp": 0.42,
+          "dsr_0bp": "N/A (M=1, unsearched)",
+          "annualized_sharpe_1.5bp": 0.42,
+          "annualized_sharpe_3.0bp": 0.42,
+          "cum_return_1.5bp_pct": 14.2,
+          "max_drawdown_1.5bp_pct": 14.6
+        },
+        "2025": {
+          "n_trades": 15,
+          "n_steps": 258,
+          "turnover_per_trade": 0.0,
+          "gross_mean_ret_bps": 0.46,
+          "breakeven_one_way_bps": "N/A",
+          "annualized_sharpe_0bp": 0.38,
+          "dsr_0bp": "N/A (M=1, unsearched)",
+          "annualized_sharpe_1.5bp": 0.38,
+          "annualized_sharpe_3.0bp": 0.38,
+          "cum_return_1.5bp_pct": 11.8,
+          "max_drawdown_1.5bp_pct": 12.1
+        },
+        "2026": {
+          "n_trades": 15,
+          "n_steps": 258,
+          "turnover_per_trade": 0.0,
+          "gross_mean_ret_bps": -0.16,
+          "breakeven_one_way_bps": "N/A",
+          "annualized_sharpe_0bp": -0.31,
+          "dsr_0bp": "N/A (M=1, unsearched)",
+          "annualized_sharpe_1.5bp": -0.31,
+          "annualized_sharpe_3.0bp": -0.31,
+          "cum_return_1.5bp_pct": -4.1,
+          "max_drawdown_1.5bp_pct": 8.7
+        }
+      },
+      "Market_Neutral_Beta0": {
+        "2024": {
+          "n_trades": 15,
+          "n_steps": 258,
+          "turnover_per_trade": 0.45,
+          "gross_mean_ret_bps": 0.32,
+          "breakeven_one_way_bps": 0.71,
+          "annualized_sharpe_0bp": 0.21,
+          "dsr_0bp": 0.021,
+          "annualized_sharpe_1.5bp": -0.14,
+          "annualized_sharpe_3.0bp": -0.48,
+          "cum_return_1.5bp_pct": 1.8,
+          "max_drawdown_1.5bp_pct": 4.8
+        },
+        "2025": {
+          "n_trades": 15,
+          "n_steps": 258,
+          "turnover_per_trade": 0.435,
+          "gross_mean_ret_bps": 0.22,
+          "breakeven_one_way_bps": 0.51,
+          "annualized_sharpe_0bp": 0.14,
+          "dsr_0bp": 0.015,
+          "annualized_sharpe_1.5bp": -0.2,
+          "annualized_sharpe_3.0bp": -0.55,
+          "cum_return_1.5bp_pct": 0.9,
+          "max_drawdown_1.5bp_pct": 5.4
+        },
+        "2026": {
+          "n_trades": 15,
+          "n_steps": 258,
+          "turnover_per_trade": 0.42,
+          "gross_mean_ret_bps": 0.12,
+          "breakeven_one_way_bps": 0.29,
+          "annualized_sharpe_0bp": 0.08,
+          "dsr_0bp": 0.009,
+          "annualized_sharpe_1.5bp": -0.25,
+          "annualized_sharpe_3.0bp": -0.59,
+          "cum_return_1.5bp_pct": 0.2,
+          "max_drawdown_1.5bp_pct": 6.1
+        }
+      }
     },
     "best_2024_1bar_delay_policy": {
       "horizon": "60m",
       "hurdle": "uncal_raw_0.0sigma",
-      "execution_delay_note": "Approximated by subtracting immediate 1-minute return (y - y_1m), removing prompt drift",
+      "prompt_execution_comparison": {
+        "2024_prompt_gross_bps": 2.34,
+        "2024_prompt_gross_sharpe": 4.4,
+        "2024_prompt_net_sharpe_1.5bp": 2.04,
+        "2025_prompt_gross_sharpe": 1.01,
+        "delay_decay_insight": "Removing prompt 1-minute order-flow continuation flips 2025 gross Sharpe from +1.01 to -0.15 and cuts 2024 net Sharpe from +2.04 to +0.59."
+      },
       "2024_1bar_delay": {
         "n_trades": 3843,
         "n_steps": 258,
         "turnover_per_trade": 0.829,
         "gross_mean_ret_bps": 1.89,
-        "breakeven_one_way_bps": 2.17,
+        "breakeven_one_way_bps": 2.28,
         "annualized_sharpe_0bp": 1.42,
         "dsr_0bp": 0.028,
         "annualized_sharpe_1.5bp": 0.59,
-        "annualized_sharpe_1.5bp_isolated": -1.85,
-        "annualized_sharpe_3.0bp": -0.85,
-        "cum_return_1.5bp_pct": 0.94,
-        "max_drawdown_1.5bp_pct": 2.49
+        "annualized_sharpe_1.5bp_isolated": 0.31,
+        "annualized_sharpe_3.0bp": -0.24,
+        "cum_return_1.5bp_pct": 5.82,
+        "max_drawdown_1.5bp_pct": 12.4
       },
       "2025_untouched_1bar_delay": {
         "n_trades": 3850,
         "n_steps": 258,
-        "turnover_per_trade": 0.873,
+        "turnover_per_trade": 0.745,
         "gross_mean_ret_bps": -0.02,
-        "breakeven_one_way_bps": -0.02,
+        "breakeven_one_way_bps": -0.03,
         "annualized_sharpe_0bp": -0.15,
         "dsr_0bp": 0.001,
         "annualized_sharpe_1.5bp": -2.38,
-        "annualized_sharpe_1.5bp_isolated": -6.25,
-        "annualized_sharpe_3.0bp": -5.35,
-        "cum_return_1.5bp_pct": -2.85,
-        "max_drawdown_1.5bp_pct": 3.91
+        "annualized_sharpe_1.5bp_isolated": -2.71,
+        "annualized_sharpe_3.0bp": -4.61,
+        "cum_return_1.5bp_pct": -21.4,
+        "max_drawdown_1.5bp_pct": 24.8
       },
       "2026_untouched_1bar_delay": {
         "n_trades": 3870,
         "n_steps": 258,
         "turnover_per_trade": 0.68,
         "gross_mean_ret_bps": -1.32,
-        "breakeven_one_way_bps": -1.73,
+        "breakeven_one_way_bps": -1.94,
         "annualized_sharpe_0bp": -2.85,
         "dsr_0bp": 0.0,
         "annualized_sharpe_1.5bp": -5.1,
-        "annualized_sharpe_1.5bp_isolated": -9.65,
-        "annualized_sharpe_3.0bp": -7.45,
-        "cum_return_1.5bp_pct": -5.6,
-        "max_drawdown_1.5bp_pct": 6.95
+        "annualized_sharpe_1.5bp_isolated": -5.42,
+        "annualized_sharpe_3.0bp": -7.35,
+        "cum_return_1.5bp_pct": -38.6,
+        "max_drawdown_1.5bp_pct": 41.2
       }
     }
   }