{
  "model": "LightGBM binary classifier",
  "version": "v1",
  "model_file": "lgbm_overtake_v1.pkl  (joblib, sklearn LGBMClassifier)",
  "features": [
    "gap_ahead_s",
    "pace_delta_s",
    "tyre_life_x",
    "tyre_life_y",
    "tyre_life_diff",
    "speed_trap_delta",
    "LapNumber",
    "drs_window",
    "compound_x",
    "compound_y",
    "circuit_cluster",
    "gap_pace_product",
    "drs_ready_gap",
    "gap_trend",
    "pace_delta_rolling3"
  ],
  "categorical_features": [
    "compound_x",
    "compound_y",
    "circuit_cluster"
  ],
  "derived_features": {
    "gap_pace_product": "gap_ahead_s * pace_delta_s",
    "drs_ready_gap": "gap_ahead_s * drs_window",
    "gap_trend": "gap_ahead_s[k] - gap_ahead_s[k-1]  (per pair per race)",
    "pace_delta_rolling3": "rolling mean(pace_delta_s, 3)  (per pair per race)"
  },
  "inference_note": "Compute derived features before predict_proba. Apply calibrator to raw scores.",
  "target": "overtake",
  "train_seasons": [
    2023,
    2024
  ],
  "test_season": 2025,
  "n_train": 18277,
  "n_test": 10217,
  "overtake_rate_train": 8.9183,
  "overtake_rate_test": 7.5756,
  "auc_pr_test": 0.5491,
  "auc_roc_test": 0.8758,
  "logloss_test": 0.409,
  "optimal_threshold": 0.7976,
  "scale_pos_weight": 12.0501,
  "n_estimators": 717,
  "calibration": "Platt scaling (LogisticRegression on val 2024 scores)"
}