v90: loss mechanism pinned (100% of lost terms only in call bodies); two wrong conclusions corrected; held-out gain +0.259 char, a tenth of the oracle; 419 tests

base_rate_test.json

@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
+{
+  "quartiles": [
+    {
+      "quartile": 1,
+      "n": 37,
+      "losers": 0,
+      "loser_rate": 0.0,
+      "mean_uniq_at_risk": 7.9
+    },
+    {
+      "quartile": 2,
+      "n": 37,
+      "losers": 8,
+      "loser_rate": 0.2162,
+      "mean_uniq_at_risk": 32.7
+    },
+    {
+      "quartile": 3,
+      "n": 37,
+      "losers": 9,
+      "loser_rate": 0.2432,
+      "mean_uniq_at_risk": 82.5
+    },
+    {
+      "quartile": 4,
+      "n": 39,
+      "losers": 4,
+      "loser_rate": 0.1026,
+      "mean_uniq_at_risk": 239.8
+    }
+  ],
+  "rate_spread": 0.2432,
+  "flat_prediction_holds": false,
+  "corr_loss_vs_atrisk_among_losers": -0.2078
+}

base_rate_test.py

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+import json, statistics, random
+from pathlib import Path
+R=Path("/var/lib/octave/sn114/repo")
+feats={f["cid"]:f for f in json.load(open(R/"routable_feature.json"))}
+per=json.load(open(R/"per_challenge_cap_effect.json"))
+# PREDICTION from the base-rate argument: if consequence is question-driven and independent
+# of at-risk volume, then P(loser) should be roughly FLAT across at-risk quartiles.
+xs=sorted(per, key=lambda p: feats[p['cid']]['uniq_at_risk'])
+n=len(xs); q=n//4
+out={'quartiles':[]}
+for i in range(4):
+    grp=xs[i*q:(i+1)*q] if i<3 else xs[3*q:]
+    losers=sum(1 for p in grp if p['loss']>1e-9)
+    out['quartiles'].append({'quartile':i+1,'n':len(grp),'losers':losers,
+      'loser_rate':round(losers/len(grp),4),
+      'mean_uniq_at_risk':round(statistics.fmean([feats[p['cid']]['uniq_at_risk'] for p in grp]),1)})
+rates=[x['loser_rate'] for x in out['quartiles']]
+out['rate_spread']=round(max(rates)-min(rates),4)
+out['flat_prediction_holds']=bool(out['rate_spread']<0.20)
+# also: is loss magnitude related to at-risk volume among losers only?
+L=[p for p in per if p['loss']>1e-9]
+def corr(a,b):
+    ma,mb=statistics.fmean(a),statistics.fmean(b)
+    num=sum((x-ma)*(y-mb) for x,y in zip(a,b))
+    da=sum((x-ma)**2 for x in a)**0.5; db=sum((y-mb)**2 for y in b)**0.5
+    return num/(da*db) if da and db else 0.0
+out['corr_loss_vs_atrisk_among_losers']=round(corr([p['loss'] for p in L],[feats[p['cid']]['uniq_at_risk'] for p in L]),4)
+json.dump(out, open(R/"base_rate_test.json","w"), indent=2)
+for x in out['quartiles']: print('  Q%d  n=%-4d mean at-risk %-7s losers %-3d rate %.4f'%(x['quartile'],x['n'],x['mean_uniq_at_risk'],x['losers'],x['loser_rate']))
+print()
+print('  loser-rate spread across quartiles: %.4f  flat prediction holds: %s'%(out['rate_spread'],out['flat_prediction_holds']))
+print('  corr(loss magnitude, at-risk volume) among the 21 losers: %+.4f'%out['corr_loss_vs_atrisk_among_losers'])

q1_attack_policy.json

@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+{
+  "in_sample": [
+    {
+      "threshold": 10,
+      "attacked": 25,
+      "losers_attacked": 0,
+      "term": 0.936,
+      "char_pct": 78.228
+    },
+    {
+      "threshold": 15,
+      "attacked": 41,
+      "losers_attacked": 0,
+      "term": 0.936,
+      "char_pct": 78.322
+    },
+    {
+      "threshold": 20,
+      "attacked": 44,
+      "losers_attacked": 0,
+      "term": 0.936,
+      "char_pct": 78.34
+    },
+    {
+      "threshold": 25,
+      "attacked": 49,
+      "losers_attacked": 1,
+      "term": 0.936,
+      "char_pct": 78.378
+    },
+    {
+      "threshold": 30,
+      "attacked": 52,
+      "losers_attacked": 3,
+      "term": 0.9357,
+      "char_pct": 78.411
+    },
+    {
+      "threshold": 40,
+      "attacked": 62,
+      "losers_attacked": 5,
+      "term": 0.9355,
+      "char_pct": 78.564
+    }
+  ],
+  "heldout": {
+    "trials": 200,
+    "mean_threshold": 24.5,
+    "mean_attacked_of_75": 24.5,
+    "mean_losers_attacked": 1.035,
+    "trials_with_zero_losers_attacked": 95,
+    "mean_term": 0.9358,
+    "mean_base_term": 0.936,
+    "mean_char": 78.396,
+    "mean_base_char": 78.137
+  }
+}

q1_attack_policy.py

@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+import json, statistics, random
+from pathlib import Path
+R=Path("/var/lib/octave/sn114/repo")
+feats={f["cid"]:f for f in json.load(open(R/"routable_feature.json"))}
+per=json.load(open(R/"per_challenge_cap_effect.json"))
+tot_raw=sum(p['raw'] for p in per)
+def policy(attack_set):
+    ret=[]; comp=0
+    for p in per:
+        if p['cid'] in attack_set: ret.append(p['ret20']); comp+=p['len20']
+        else: ret.append(p['ret60']); comp+=p['len60']
+    return round(statistics.fmean(ret),4), round(100*(1-comp/tot_raw),3), len(attack_set)
+vals=sorted(feats[p['cid']]['uniq_at_risk'] for p in per)
+res=[]
+# in-sample thresholds
+for thr in (10,15,20,25,30,40):
+    atk={p['cid'] for p in per if feats[p['cid']]['uniq_at_risk']<thr}
+    t_,c_,n_=policy(atk)
+    lost=sum(1 for p in per if p['cid'] in atk and p['loss']>1e-9)
+    res.append({'threshold':thr,'attacked':n_,'losers_attacked':lost,'term':t_,'char_pct':c_})
+# HELD-OUT: pick threshold on half, evaluate on the other half, 200 splits
+rnd=random.Random(20260817)
+cids=[p['cid'] for p in per]
+byc={p['cid']:p for p in per}
+holds=[]
+for _ in range(200):
+    sh=cids[:]; rnd.shuffle(sh)
+    tr=set(sh[:75]); te=set(sh[75:])
+    # choose the largest threshold with ZERO losers in the training half
+    best=0
+    for thr in range(1,300,1):
+        atk={c for c in tr if feats[c]['uniq_at_risk']<thr}
+        if any(byc[c]['loss']>1e-9 for c in atk): break
+        best=thr
+    atk_te={c for c in te if feats[c]['uniq_at_risk']<best}
+    bad=sum(1 for c in atk_te if byc[c]['loss']>1e-9)
+    ret=[]; comp=0; raw=0
+    for c in te:
+        p=byc[c]; raw+=p['raw']
+        if c in atk_te: ret.append(p['ret20']); comp+=p['len20']
+        else: ret.append(p['ret60']); comp+=p['len60']
+    base=[byc[c]['ret60'] for c in te]; bcomp=sum(byc[c]['len60'] for c in te)
+    holds.append({'thr':best,'attacked':len(atk_te),'bad':bad,
+      'term':statistics.fmean(ret),'base_term':statistics.fmean(base),
+      'char':100*(1-comp/raw),'base_char':100*(1-bcomp/raw)})
+out={'in_sample':res,'heldout':{
+ 'trials':200,
+ 'mean_threshold':round(statistics.fmean([h['thr'] for h in holds]),1),
+ 'mean_attacked_of_75':round(statistics.fmean([h['attacked'] for h in holds]),1),
+ 'mean_losers_attacked':round(statistics.fmean([h['bad'] for h in holds]),3),
+ 'trials_with_zero_losers_attacked':sum(1 for h in holds if h['bad']==0),
+ 'mean_term':round(statistics.fmean([h['term'] for h in holds]),4),
+ 'mean_base_term':round(statistics.fmean([h['base_term'] for h in holds]),4),
+ 'mean_char':round(statistics.fmean([h['char'] for h in holds]),3),
+ 'mean_base_char':round(statistics.fmean([h['base_char'] for h in holds]),3)}}
+json.dump(out, open(R/"q1_attack_policy.json","w"), indent=2)
+print('IN-SAMPLE:')
+for x in res: print('  thr %-4d attacked %-4d losers hit %-3d term %.4f  char %.3f%%'%(x['threshold'],x['attacked'],x['losers_attacked'],x['term'],x['char_pct']))
+h=out['heldout']
+print()
+print('HELD-OUT (200 splits, threshold chosen on 75, evaluated on 75):')
+print('  mean threshold %.1f  attacked %.1f of 75  losers attacked %.3f  clean trials %d/200'%(
+  h['mean_threshold'],h['mean_attacked_of_75'],h['mean_losers_attacked'],h['trials_with_zero_losers_attacked']))
+print('  term %.4f vs baseline %.4f (%+.4f)'%(h['mean_term'],h['mean_base_term'],h['mean_term']-h['mean_base_term']))
+print('  char %.3f%% vs baseline %.3f%% (%+.3f)'%(h['mean_char'],h['mean_base_char'],h['mean_char']-h['mean_base_char']))

routable_feature.json

@@ -0,0 +1,902 @@
+[
+  {
+    "cid": "1533",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 62,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 14
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1534",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 27,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 6
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1535",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 102,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 21
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1536",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 14,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 3
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1537",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 71,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 16
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1538",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 43,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 13
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1539",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 166,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 32
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1540",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 12,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 5
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1541",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 168,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 33
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1542",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 16,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1543",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 69,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 7
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1544",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 73,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 13
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1545",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 185,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 25
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1546",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 64,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 29
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1547",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 119,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 26
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1548",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 13,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 6
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1549",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 14,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 5
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1550",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 8,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 2
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1551",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 1,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 1
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1552",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 20,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 6
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1553",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 10,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 2
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1554",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 200,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 51
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1555",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 5,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 2
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1556",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 32,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 8
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1557",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 134,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 15
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1558",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 14,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 9
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1559",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 80,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 18
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1560",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 173,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 43
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1561",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 3,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 2
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1562",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 331,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 48
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1563",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 125,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 11
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1564",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 179,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 30
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1565",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 96,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 22
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1566",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 48,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 5
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1567",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 79,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 22
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1568",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 96,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 23
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1569",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 7,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1570",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 144,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 31
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1571",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 34,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 12
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1572",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 33,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 18
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1573",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 51,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 20
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1574",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 73,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 18
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1575",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 209,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 26
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1576",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 2,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 1
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1577",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 21,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 11
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1578",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 715,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 123
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1579",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 11,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 5
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1580",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 40,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 14
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1581",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 81,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 15
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1582",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 94,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 23
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1583",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 13,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 8
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1584",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 4,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 2
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1585",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 9,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 3
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1586",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 170,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 26
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1587",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 53,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 11
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1588",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 23,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1589",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 3,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 2
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1590",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 163,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 22
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1591",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 339,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 33
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1592",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 109,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 22
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1593",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 93,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 11
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1594",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 51,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 21
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1595",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 6,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 3
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1596",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 238,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 41
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1597",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 14,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1598",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 13,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 7
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1599",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 10,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 5
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1600",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 7,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 3
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1601",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 113,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 15
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1602",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 239,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 24
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1603",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 107,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 18
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1604",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 129,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 18
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1605",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 65,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 13
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1606",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 12,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1607",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 75,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 16
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1608",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 358,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 26
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1609",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 106,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 29
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1610",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 508,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 69
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1611",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 78,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 12
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1612",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 8,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 2
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1613",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 73,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 23
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1614",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 77,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 16
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1615",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 189,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 18
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1616",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 7,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 3
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1617",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 44,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 10
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1618",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 110,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 40
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1619",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 7,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1620",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 113,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 24
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1621",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 329,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 68
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1622",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 66,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 12
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1623",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 77,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 12
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1624",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 30,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 10
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1625",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 61,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 13
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1626",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 362,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 105
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1627",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 67,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 21
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1628",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 242,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 36
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1629",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 30,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 16
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1630",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 13,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 5
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1631",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 24,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 7
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1632",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 143,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 16
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1633",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 58,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 8
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1634",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 7,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 3
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1635",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 16,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 7
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1636",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 3,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 2
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1637",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 15,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 5
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1638",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 193,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 35
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1639",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 111,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 13
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1640",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 9,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 6
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1641",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 25,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 8
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1642",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 71,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 25
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1643",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 128,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 34
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1644",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 178,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 25
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1645",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 31,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 17
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1646",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 95,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 23
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1647",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 35,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 15
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1648",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 339,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 102
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1649",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 5,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 2
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1650",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 368,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 51
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1651",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 156,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 25
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1652",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 182,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 14
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1653",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 268,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 47
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1654",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 45,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 9
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1655",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 215,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 28
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1656",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 9,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1657",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 25,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 15
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1658",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 11,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 5
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1659",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 59,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 20
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1660",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 8,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1661",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 8,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1662",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 171,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 26
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1663",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 3,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 2
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1664",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 6,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1665",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 644,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 73
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1666",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 37,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 17
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1667",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 9,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 2
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1668",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 11,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 6
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1669",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 7,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 2
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1670",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 13,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 5
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1671",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 65,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 21
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1672",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 141,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 33
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1673",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 56,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 21
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1674",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 104,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 21
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1675",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 67,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 23
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1676",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 85,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 45
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1677",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 22,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 5
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1678",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 35,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 14
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1679",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 50,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 13
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1680",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 36,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 11
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1681",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 80,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 19
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1682",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "uniq_at_risk": 49,
+    "bodies_at_risk": 15
+  }
+]

routable_feature.py

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+import json, csv, importlib.util, statistics, re
+from pathlib import Path
+R=Path("/var/lib/octave/sn114/repo"); PL=Path("/var/lib/octave/sn114/external/SOMA-plugin")
+csv.field_size_limit(50_000_000)
+D=R/"miner/plain_text_compression/sample_tasks/CoT-Compression-1"
+rows={r["challenge_id"]:r for r in csv.DictReader(open(D/"challenges.csv"))}
+per=json.load(open(R/"per_challenge_cap_effect.json"))
+def loadm(fn):
+    sp=importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("u_"+fn[:9], PL/fn)
+    m=importlib.util.module_from_spec(sp); sp.loader.exec_module(m); return m
+SH=loadm('structural_cot_compressor.py')
+G1=chr(0xab); G2=chr(0xbb); BS=chr(92)
+CALL=re.compile(G1+'c'+BS+'d+[a-z]{2}(.*?)'+G2, re.DOTALL)
+IDENT=re.compile(r'[A-Za-z_][A-Za-z0-9_.]{3,}')
+feats=[]
+for p in per:
+    raw=rows[p['cid']]['challenge_text']
+    SH.MAX_TOOL_CALL=10**6; full=SH.compress_content(raw)
+    SH.MAX_TOOL_CALL=60
+    bodies=CALL.findall(full)
+    stripped=CALL.sub(' ', full).lower()
+    # compress-time-only feature: identifiers beyond byte 20 of a body, unique to that body
+    uniq_at_risk=0; bodies_at_risk=0
+    for bd in bodies:
+        if len(bd)<=20: continue
+        tail=bd[20:]
+        cands={t.lower() for t in IDENT.findall(tail)}
+        uniq={t for t in cands if t not in stripped and t not in bd[:20].lower()}
+        if uniq: bodies_at_risk+=1; uniq_at_risk+=len(uniq)
+    feats.append({'cid':p['cid'],'is_loser':p['loss']>1e-9,
+      'uniq_at_risk':uniq_at_risk,'bodies_at_risk':bodies_at_risk})
+json.dump(feats, open(R/"routable_feature.json","w"), indent=2)
+L=[f for f in feats if f['is_loser']]; N=[f for f in feats if not f['is_loser']]
+def m(xs,k): return round(statistics.fmean([x[k] for x in xs]),2)
+print('  uniq_at_risk    losers %-8s non-losers %s'%(m(L,'uniq_at_risk'),m(N,'uniq_at_risk')))
+print('  bodies_at_risk  losers %-8s non-losers %s'%(m(L,'bodies_at_risk'),m(N,'bodies_at_risk')))
+print('  losers with ZERO at-risk bodies: %d of %d'%(sum(1 for f in L if f['bodies_at_risk']==0),len(L)))
+print('  non-losers with SOME at-risk bodies: %d of %d'%(sum(1 for f in N if f['bodies_at_risk']>0),len(N)))
+ranked=sorted(feats,key=lambda f:-f['uniq_at_risk'])
+top21={f['cid'] for f in ranked[:21]}
+true={f['cid'] for f in L}
+print('  top-21 by uniq_at_risk recall of the 21 losers: %.4f'%(len(top21&true)/len(true)))

span_level_probe.json

@@ -0,0 +1,1502 @@
+[
+  {
+    "cid": "1533",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 16,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 16
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1534",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 10,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 10
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1535",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 23,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 23
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1536",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 5,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 5
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1537",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 17,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 17
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1538",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 18,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 18
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1539",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 34,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 34
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1540",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 6,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 6
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1541",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.019999999999999907,
+    "n_lost_terms": 2,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 2,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 2,
+    "n_bodies": 33,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 33
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1542",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 4,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1543",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.011111111111111072,
+    "n_lost_terms": 1,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "n_bodies": 8,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 8
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1544",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 13,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 13
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1545",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 25,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 25
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1546",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 38,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 38
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1547",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 37,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 37
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1548",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 6,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 6
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1549",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 5,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 5
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1550",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 4,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1551",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 4,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1552",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.007692307692307665,
+    "n_lost_terms": 1,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "n_bodies": 7,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 7
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1553",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 3,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 3
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1554",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 89,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 89
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1555",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 5,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 5
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1556",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 13,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 13
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1557",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.010000000000000009,
+    "n_lost_terms": 1,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "n_bodies": 18,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 18
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1558",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 10,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 10
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1559",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 19,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 19
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1560",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 47,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 47
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1561",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 3,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 3
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1562",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 57,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 57
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1563",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 11,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 11
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1564",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 30,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 30
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1565",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.006666666666666821,
+    "n_lost_terms": 1,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "n_bodies": 27,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 27
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1566",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 7,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 7
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1567",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 22,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 22
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1568",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 23,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 23
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1569",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 4,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1570",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 33,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 33
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1571",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 18,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 18
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1572",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.009999999999999898,
+    "n_lost_terms": 1,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "n_bodies": 22,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 22
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1573",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 20,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 20
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1574",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 19,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 19
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1575",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 53,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 53
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1576",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 2,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 2
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1577",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 17,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 17
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1578",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 166,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 166
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1579",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 8,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 8
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1580",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.012500000000000067,
+    "n_lost_terms": 1,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "n_bodies": 20,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 20
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1581",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 16,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 16
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1582",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 25,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 25
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1583",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 8,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 8
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1584",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 4,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1585",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 4,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1586",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 27,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 27
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1587",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.006666666666666599,
+    "n_lost_terms": 1,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "n_bodies": 11,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 11
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1588",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 6,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 6
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1589",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 4,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1590",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 24,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 24
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1591",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 47,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 47
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1592",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 29,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 29
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1593",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.011111111111111072,
+    "n_lost_terms": 1,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "n_bodies": 15,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 15
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1594",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 25,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 25
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1595",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 4,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1596",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 42,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 42
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1597",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 6,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 6
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1598",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 11,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 11
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1599",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 6,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 6
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1600",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 3,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 3
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1601",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.009999999999999898,
+    "n_lost_terms": 1,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "n_bodies": 17,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 17
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1602",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 30,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 30
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1603",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 21,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 21
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1604",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.009999999999999898,
+    "n_lost_terms": 1,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "n_bodies": 20,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 20
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1605",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 14,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 14
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1606",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 4,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1607",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 18,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 18
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1608",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 31,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 31
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1609",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 33,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 33
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1610",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 75,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 75
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1611",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.019999999999999907,
+    "n_lost_terms": 2,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 2,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 2,
+    "n_bodies": 12,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 12
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1612",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 6,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 6
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1613",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 28,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 28
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1614",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 17,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 17
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1615",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 19,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 19
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1616",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 3,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 3
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1617",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 12,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 12
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1618",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 49,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 49
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1619",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 4,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1620",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 24,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 24
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1621",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 98,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 98
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1622",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 13,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 13
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1623",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.014285714285714457,
+    "n_lost_terms": 1,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "n_bodies": 14,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 14
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1624",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 12,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 12
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1625",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 14,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 14
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1626",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 155,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 155
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1627",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 32,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 32
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1628",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 38,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 38
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1629",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.012499999999999956,
+    "n_lost_terms": 1,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "n_bodies": 18,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 18
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1630",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 5,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 5
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1631",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 7,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 7
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1632",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 16,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 16
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1633",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.0071428571428573395,
+    "n_lost_terms": 1,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "n_bodies": 9,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 9
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1634",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 5,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 5
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1635",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 9,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 9
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1636",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 4,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1637",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 7,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 7
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1638",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 44,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 44
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1639",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.008333333333333193,
+    "n_lost_terms": 1,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "n_bodies": 14,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 14
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1640",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 7,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 7
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1641",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.024358974358974272,
+    "n_lost_terms": 3,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 3,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 3,
+    "n_bodies": 9,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 9
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1642",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.011111111111111072,
+    "n_lost_terms": 1,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "n_bodies": 29,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 29
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1643",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 35,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 35
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1644",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 34,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 34
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1645",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 23,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 23
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1646",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.0052631578947367474,
+    "n_lost_terms": 1,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "n_bodies": 27,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 27
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1647",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 15,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 15
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1648",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 128,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 128
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1649",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 3,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 3
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1650",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 53,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 53
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1651",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 28,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 28
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1652",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 14,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 14
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1653",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 49,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 49
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1654",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 11,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 11
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1655",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.0071428571428572285,
+    "n_lost_terms": 1,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "n_bodies": 28,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 28
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1656",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 4,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1657",
+    "is_loser": true,
+    "loss": 0.020370370370370372,
+    "n_lost_terms": 1,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 1,
+    "n_bodies": 17,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 17
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1658",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 6,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 6
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1659",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 21,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 21
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1660",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 5,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 5
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1661",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 4,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1662",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 26,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 26
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1663",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 3,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 3
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1664",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 4,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 4
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1665",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 111,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 111
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1666",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 21,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 21
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1667",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 3,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 3
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1668",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 6,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 6
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1669",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 3,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 3
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1670",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 9,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 9
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1671",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 21,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 21
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1672",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 34,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 34
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1673",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 21,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 21
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1674",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 22,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 22
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1675",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 27,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 27
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1676",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 73,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 73
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1677",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 7,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 7
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1678",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 20,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 20
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1679",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 18,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 18
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1680",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 20,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 20
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1681",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 19,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 19
+  },
+  {
+    "cid": "1682",
+    "is_loser": false,
+    "loss": 0.0,
+    "n_lost_terms": 0,
+    "lost_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies": 0,
+    "n_bodies": 16,
+    "n_bodies_over_20": 16
+  }
+]

span_level_probe.py

@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+import json, csv, importlib.util, statistics, re
+from pathlib import Path
+R=Path("/var/lib/octave/sn114/repo"); PL=Path("/var/lib/octave/sn114/external/SOMA-plugin")
+csv.field_size_limit(50_000_000)
+s=importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("base_sp", R/"answer_retention_eval.py")
+BASE=importlib.util.module_from_spec(s); s.loader.exec_module(BASE)
+D=R/"miner/plain_text_compression/sample_tasks/CoT-Compression-1"
+rows={r["challenge_id"]:r for r in csv.DictReader(open(D/"challenges.csv"))}
+qa=list(csv.DictReader(open(D/"challenge_QA.csv")))
+from collections import defaultdict
+byq=defaultdict(list)
+for q in qa: byq[q['challenge_id']].append(q)
+per=json.load(open(R/"per_challenge_cap_effect.json"))
+losers=[p for p in per if p['loss']>1e-9]
+def loadm(fn):
+    sp=importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("p_"+fn[:9], PL/fn)
+    m=importlib.util.module_from_spec(sp); sp.loader.exec_module(m); return m
+SH=loadm('structural_cot_compressor.py')
+G1=chr(0xab); G2=chr(0xbb); BS=chr(92)
+CALL=re.compile(G1+'c'+BS+'d+[a-z]{2}(.*?)'+G2, re.DOTALL)
+# for each challenge: which answer terms are lost by cap 20, and do they live in call spans?
+stats=[]
+for p in per:
+    cid=p['cid']; raw=rows[cid]['challenge_text']; lo=raw.lower()
+    SH.MAX_TOOL_CALL=60; a=SH.compress_content(raw)
+    SH.MAX_TOOL_CALL=20; b=SH.compress_content(raw)
+    SH.MAX_TOOL_CALL=10**6; full=SH.compress_content(raw)
+    SH.MAX_TOOL_CALL=60
+    al=a.lower(); bl=b.lower()
+    lost=set()
+    for q in byq[cid]:
+        terms=BASE.content_terms(q['answer_text'])
+        for t in terms:
+            if t in lo and t in al and t not in bl: lost.add(t)
+    bodies=CALL.findall(full)
+    # of the lost terms, how many appear in an UNCAPPED call body?
+    in_call=0; body_hits={}
+    for t in lost:
+        hit=[i for i,bd in enumerate(bodies) if t in bd.lower()]
+        if hit: in_call+=1; body_hits[t]=len(hit)
+    # rest of document excluding call bodies
+    stripped=CALL.sub(' ', full).lower()
+    only_in_call=sum(1 for t in lost if t in body_hits and t not in stripped)
+    stats.append({'cid':cid,'is_loser':p['loss']>1e-9,'loss':p['loss'],
+      'n_lost_terms':len(lost),'lost_in_call_bodies':in_call,'lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies':only_in_call,
+      'n_bodies':len(bodies),'n_bodies_over_20':sum(1 for bd in bodies if len(bd)>20)})
+json.dump(stats, open(R/"span_level_probe.json","w"), indent=2)
+L=[x for x in stats if x['is_loser']]; N=[x for x in stats if not x['is_loser']]
+def m(xs,k): return round(statistics.fmean([x[k] for x in xs]),3) if xs else None
+print('losers %d  non-losers %d'%(len(L),len(N)))
+for k in ('n_lost_terms','lost_in_call_bodies','lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies','n_bodies','n_bodies_over_20'):
+    print('  %-26s losers %-8s non-losers %s'%(k,m(L,k),m(N,k)))
+tot_lost=sum(x['n_lost_terms'] for x in L)
+tot_in=sum(x['lost_in_call_bodies'] for x in L)
+tot_only=sum(x['lost_ONLY_in_call_bodies'] for x in L)
+print()
+print('  across the %d losers: %d lost terms, %d in call bodies (%.1f%%), %d ONLY in call bodies (%.1f%%)'%(
+  len(L),tot_lost,tot_in,100*tot_in/max(1,tot_lost),tot_only,100*tot_only/max(1,tot_lost)))

span_routing.json

@@ -0,0 +1,120 @@
+{
+  "span_level_probe": {
+    "result": "100% of lost terms live ONLY in call bodies - across the 21 losers, 25 lost terms, all 25 in call bodies, all 25 found nowhere else in the document",
+    "loss_mechanism_pinned": "cap 20 destroys terms that exist only inside a long tool_call body",
+    "why_this_alone_cannot_route": "the 129 non-losers have 0 lost terms BY DEFINITION, so this is a description of the losers computed FROM the answers - an oracle, not a feature"
+  },
+  "routable_feature": {
+    "definition": "compress-time only: identifiers beyond byte 20 of a call body that appear nowhere else in the document",
+    "losers_mean_uniq_at_risk": 82.52,
+    "non_losers_mean_uniq_at_risk": 94.4,
+    "losers_with_zero_at_risk_bodies": 0,
+    "non_losers_with_some_at_risk_bodies": 129,
+    "top21_recall": 0.0476,
+    "binary_verdict": "fires on 150 of 150 and points the WRONG WAY in the mean - non-losers score higher"
+  },
+  "my_premature_closure": {
+    "what_i_said": "the feature is universally true so it carries no information, and I am closing the selective-routing line here",
+    "why_it_was_wrong": "I concluded no signal from a recall figure and a correlation coefficient, both blind to non-monotone structure, without ever looking at the distribution",
+    "error_class": "tenth narration-class error and a new variety - declaring a negative result and closing a line of work on two summary statistics; the prior probes were insufficient, not conclusive, and I presented insufficiency as absence"
+  },
+  "base_rate_test": {
+    "my_prediction": "if consequence is question-driven and independent of at-risk volume, the loser rate should be FLAT across at-risk quartiles",
+    "result": "FALSIFIED - spread 0.2432",
+    "quartiles": [
+      {
+        "quartile": 1,
+        "n": 37,
+        "losers": 0,
+        "loser_rate": 0.0,
+        "mean_uniq_at_risk": 7.9
+      },
+      {
+        "quartile": 2,
+        "n": 37,
+        "losers": 8,
+        "loser_rate": 0.2162,
+        "mean_uniq_at_risk": 32.7
+      },
+      {
+        "quartile": 3,
+        "n": 37,
+        "losers": 9,
+        "loser_rate": 0.2432,
+        "mean_uniq_at_risk": 82.5
+      },
+      {
+        "quartile": 4,
+        "n": 39,
+        "losers": 4,
+        "loser_rate": 0.1026,
+        "mean_uniq_at_risk": 239.8
+      }
+    ],
+    "shape": "NOT monotone: Q1 has 0 losers of 37, Q2 and Q3 run 21.6-24.3%, Q4 falls back to 10.3% - which is why every linear correlation I computed read near zero",
+    "corr_loss_vs_atrisk_among_losers": -0.2078
+  },
+  "q1_attack_policy": {
+    "idea": "invert the routing - instead of choosing whom to SPARE, use the feature to choose whom it is safe to ATTACK",
+    "in_sample": [
+      {
+        "threshold": 10,
+        "attacked": 25,
+        "losers_attacked": 0,
+        "term": 0.936,
+        "char_pct": 78.228
+      },
+      {
+        "threshold": 15,
+        "attacked": 41,
+        "losers_attacked": 0,
+        "term": 0.936,
+        "char_pct": 78.322
+      },
+      {
+        "threshold": 20,
+        "attacked": 44,
+        "losers_attacked": 0,
+        "term": 0.936,
+        "char_pct": 78.34
+      },
+      {
+        "threshold": 25,
+        "attacked": 49,
+        "losers_attacked": 1,
+        "term": 0.936,
+        "char_pct": 78.378
+      },
+      {
+        "threshold": 30,
+        "attacked": 52,
+        "losers_attacked": 3,
+        "term": 0.9357,
+        "char_pct": 78.411
+      },
+      {
+        "threshold": 40,
+        "attacked": 62,
+        "losers_attacked": 5,
+        "term": 0.9355,
+        "char_pct": 78.564
+      }
+    ],
+    "heldout": {
+      "trials": 200,
+      "mean_threshold": 24.5,
+      "mean_attacked_of_75": 24.5,
+      "mean_losers_attacked": 1.035,
+      "trials_with_zero_losers_attacked": 95,
+      "mean_term": 0.9358,
+      "mean_base_term": 0.936,
+      "mean_char": 78.396,
+      "mean_base_char": 78.137
+    },
+    "honest_verdict": "the signal is real and generalises: +0.259 exact char points at -0.0002 term out of sample. But that is a TENTH of the +2.543 oracle prize, and only 95 of 200 held-out trials avoid attacking a loser",
+    "my_second_overreach": "I wrote that Q1 identifies a quarter of the corpus that is \"provably safe\". Held-out it is not provably anything - a loser is attacked in 105 of 200 trials. That was an in-sample statement dressed as a general one, the mirror image of the overreach I had just criticised",
+    "decision": "not building a variant - +0.26 char points does not justify a fourteenth compressor, and the honest figure is an order of magnitude below the oracle"
+  },
+  "arc_of_the_turn": "I declared no signal (wrong), then declared a provably safe quartile (also wrong); the truth is a small real effect worth about 0.26 char points",
+  "revert_proofs": "16 mutations all caught: erasing the mechanism, the oracle flag, the universality, both of my errors, reversing the falsification, adding losers to Q1, losing or inflating the held-out gain, making the held-out result clean, and tidying the arc of the turn"
+}