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*.zst filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
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*tfevents* filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
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Manually[[:space:]]Disecting[[:space:]]arXiv2512.15720/main.pdf filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
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*.zst filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
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*tfevents* filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
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Manually[[:space:]]Disecting[[:space:]]arXiv2512.15720/main.pdf filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
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simple_trend_filter[[:space:]]dominant_poc_displacement/main.pdf filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
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simple_trend_filter dominant_poc_displacement/main.pdf
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version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
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oid sha256:ec1738dbb5595b4b54fa6100b9f6689b50e758d6d3f5278fa1773d2ddde46015
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size 140624
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simple_trend_filter dominant_poc_displacement/main.tex
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\documentclass[11pt]{article}
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\usepackage[margin=1in]{geometry}
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% Core packages
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\usepackage{amsmath,amssymb}
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\usepackage{tikz-cd}
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\usepackage{multicol}
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% Paragraphs
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\setlength{\parindent}{0pt}
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\setlength{\parskip}{1\baselineskip}
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\title{Simple Trend Filter: Dominant POC Displacement}
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\author{algorembrant}
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\date{\today}
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\begin{document}
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\maketitle
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I will formalize the simple trend filter as
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\begin{align*}
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vali(buy) = \left(\frac{\sum_{\substack{a = 0 \\ \delta_{t-a} \textcolor{red}{>} 0}}^{n} |\delta_{t-a}|}{\sum_{\substack{a = 0 \\ \delta_{t-a} \gtrless 0}}^{n} |\delta_{t-a}|} \times 100 \right) > 90\%, \quad valid(sell) = \left(\frac{\sum_{\substack{a = 0 \\ \delta_{t-a} \textcolor{red}{<} 0}}^{n} |\delta_{t-a}|}{\sum_{\substack{a = 0 \\ \delta_{t-a} \gtrless 0}}^{n} |\delta_{t-a}|} \times 100 \right) > 90\%
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\end{align*}
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This formula can be used in any typed of dataset becuase the main component is a simple change $\delta$
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\section{origin}
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Consider the dataset below, let's say that from A to E is our setup (you may call this our data within a window size), and our developing point-of-control are as follows:
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\begin{tabular}{|l|c|r|}
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\hline
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index (t) & POC & $\delta$ \\
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\hline
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1 & \$4490.175 & \colorbox{gray!20}{\$0.000} \\
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2 & \$490.179 & \colorbox{blue!20}{+\$0.004} \\
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3 & \$490.008 & \colorbox{red!20}{- \$0.171} \\
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4 & \$491.029 & \colorbox{blue!20}{+\$1.021} \\
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5 & \$496.029 & \colorbox{blue!20}{+\$5.000} \\
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\hline
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\end{tabular}
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And we are curently at timestep index = 5. Assume we are looking for somesort of confirmation. To solve for valid(buy,sell), the procedding calculation are as follows.
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where a simple change in POC is defined as:
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\begin{align*}
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\delta = POC_t - POC_{t-1}
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\end{align*}
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\begin{align*}
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buy &= \sum_{\substack{a = 0 \\ \delta_{t-a} > 0}}^{4} \delta_{t-a} \\
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buy &= 0.004_5 + 1.021_4 + 5.000_2 \\
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buy &= 6.025 \\
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\end{align*}
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\begin{align*}
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sell &= \sum_{\substack{a = 0 \\ \delta_{t-a} < 0}}^{4} | \delta_{t-a}| \\
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sell &= |-0.171_3| \\
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sell &= 0.171 \\
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\end{align*}
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therefore
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\begin{align*}
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total &= buy + sell \\
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total &= 6.025 + 0.171 \\
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total &= 6.196
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\end{align*}
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and we calculate what side is dominant
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\begin{align*}
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buyside &= \frac{buy}{total} \quad sellside = \frac{sell}{total}\\
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buyside &= \frac{6.025}{6.196} \quad sellside = \frac{0.171}{6.196} \\
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buyside &= 0.97 \quad sellside = 0.03
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\end{align*}
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Valid creteria: if the dominance is above 90\% then its trending. Therefore in this example we consider the situation as buy trend.
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\newpage
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\section{formalization}
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\begin{align*}
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\delta &= POC_t - POC_{t-1}, \quad \text{change in POC} \\
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t &= \text{current timestep, \quad index} \\
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a,n &= \text{lookback parameters}
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\end{align*}
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\begin{align*}
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dominance(buy) = \frac{\sum_{\substack{a = 0 \\ \delta_{t-a} \textcolor{red}{>} 0}}^{n} |\delta_{t-a}|}{\sum_{\substack{a = 0 \\ \delta_{t-a} \gtrless 0}}^{n} |\delta_{t-a}|}
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\end{align*}
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\begin{align*}
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dominance(sell) = \frac{\sum_{\substack{a = 0 \\ \delta_{t-a} \textcolor{red}{<} 0}}^{n} |\delta_{t-a}|}{\sum_{\substack{a = 0 \\ \delta_{t-a} \gtrless 0}}^{n} |\delta_{t-a}|}
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\end{align*}
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\begin{align*}
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valid(buy) = \left(\frac{\sum_{\substack{a = 0 \\ \delta_{t-a} \textcolor{red}{>} 0}}^{n} |\delta_{t-a}|}{\sum_{\substack{a = 0 \\ \delta_{t-a} \gtrless 0}}^{n} |\delta_{t-a}|} \times 100 \right) > 90\%
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\end{align*}
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\begin{align*}
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valid(sell) = \left(\frac{\sum_{\substack{a = 0 \\ \delta_{t-a} \textcolor{red}{<} 0}}^{n} |\delta_{t-a}|}{\sum_{\substack{a = 0 \\ \delta_{t-a} \gtrless 0}}^{n} |\delta_{t-a}|} \times 100 \right) > 90\%
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\end{align*}
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\end{document}
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