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README.md CHANGED
@@ -1,3 +1,39 @@
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- ---
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- license: mit
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- ---
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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+ ---
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+ language: en
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+ license: apache-2.0
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+ tags:
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+ - weather
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+ - forecasting
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+ - aviation
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+ - rwanda
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+ - metar
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+ ---
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+
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+ # Aurora Rwanda Airport Weather Models (v1_balanced)
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+
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+ This repository contains trained multi-horizon weather forecasting models for Rwanda airports:
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+ - HRYR (Kigali)
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+ - HRZA (Kamembe)
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+ - HRYG (Gisenyi)
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+ - HRYH (Huye)
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+
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+ ## What’s inside
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+ - `v1_balanced_*.pkl` model bundles
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+ - `v1_balanced_*.summary.json` training/eval summaries
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+ - `v1_balanced_*.calibration.json` flight-rules calibration
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+ - `score_targets.json` scoring gates
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+ - `ml_health_report.json` latest health report
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+
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+ ## Forecast horizons
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+ 1h, 3h, 6h, 12h, 24h, 48h, 72h
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+
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+ ## Data sources (training)
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+ - METAR history (Ogimet + AviationWeather.gov recent)
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+ - NOAA ISD Global Hourly
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+ - Open-Meteo archive
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+
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+ ## Usage
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+ Load `*.pkl` with Python and call `predict_trained_forecast` from the Aurora codebase.
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+
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+ ## Safety/Disclaimer
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+ These models are for decision support and research. Always consult official aviation weather sources for operational decisions.
metadata.json ADDED
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+ {
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+ "createdAtUtc": "2026-03-25T15:08:49Z",
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+ "model_version": "v1_balanced",
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+ "airports": [
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+ "HRYR",
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+ "HRZA",
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+ "HRYG",
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+ "HRYH"
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+ ],
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+ "horizons": [
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+ 1,
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+ 3,
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+ 6,
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+ 12,
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+ 24,
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+ 48,
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+ 72
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+ ]
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+ }
ml_health_report.json ADDED
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+ {
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+ "airports": {
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+ "HRYR": {
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+ "status": "error",
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+ "score": 0.41609625870113587,
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+ "macroF1ByHorizonVal": {
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+ "1": 0.41609625870113587
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+ },
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+ "macroF1MeanTest": 0.4416615821331086,
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+ "targetStretch": 0.83,
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+ ],
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+ "summaryPath": "data_cache/models/v1_balanced_HRYR.summary.json"
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+ },
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+ "HRZA": {
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+ "status": "warn",
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+ "score": null,
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+ "macroF1ByHorizonVal": {},
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+ "macroF1MeanTest": 0.13752439997426852,
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+ "targetMin": 0.8,
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+ "targetStretch": 0.83,
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+ ],
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+ "summaryPath": "data_cache/models/v1_balanced_HRZA.summary.json"
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+ },
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+ "HRYG": {
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+ "status": "warn",
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+ "score": null,
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+ "macroF1ByHorizonVal": {},
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+ "macroF1MeanTest": 0.13885280172248257,
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+ "targetStretch": 0.83,
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+ "requiredHorizons": [
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+ ],
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+ "summaryPath": "data_cache/models/v1_balanced_HRYG.summary.json"
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+ },
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+ "HRYH": {
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+ "status": "warn",
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+ "score": null,
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+ "macroF1ByHorizonVal": {},
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+ "macroF1MeanTest": 0.27046066944587316,
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+ "targetMin": 0.8,
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+ ],
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+ "summaryPath": "data_cache/models/v1_balanced_HRYH.summary.json"
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+ }
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+ },
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+ "alerts": [
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+ {
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+ "airport": "HRYR",
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+ "level": "error",
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+ "message": "Score 0.4161 below minimum 0.8000"
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "airport": "HRYR",
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+ "level": "error",
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+ "message": "H1 macro-F1 0.4161 below floor 0.7200"
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "airport": "HRYR",
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+ "level": "warn",
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+ "message": "Missing horizon 3 val macro-F1"
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "airport": "HRYR",
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+ "level": "warn",
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+ "message": "Missing horizon 6 val macro-F1"
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "airport": "HRYR",
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+ "level": "warn",
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+ "message": "Missing horizon 12 val macro-F1"
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "airport": "HRYR",
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+ "level": "warn",
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+ "message": "Missing horizon 24 val macro-F1"
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "airport": "HRYR",
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+ "level": "warn",
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+ "message": "Missing horizon 48 val macro-F1"
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "airport": "HRYR",
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+ "level": "warn",
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+ "message": "Missing horizon 72 val macro-F1"
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "airport": "HRZA",
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+ "level": "warn",
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+ "message": "No classification rows in summary"
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "airport": "HRYG",
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+ "level": "warn",
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+ "message": "No classification rows in summary"
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "airport": "HRYH",
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+ "level": "warn",
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+ "message": "No classification rows in summary"
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+ }
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+ ],
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+ "promotion": {
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+ "eligible": false,
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+ "reasons": [
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+ "HRYR: below_min_target",
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+ "HRYR: horizon_1_below_floor",
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+ "HRYR: missing_horizon_3",
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+ "HRYR: missing_horizon_6",
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+ "HRYR: missing_horizon_12",
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+ "HRYR: missing_horizon_24",
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+ "HRYR: missing_horizon_48",
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+ "HRYR: missing_horizon_72",
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+ "HRZA: no_val_classification_rows",
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+ "HRYG: no_val_classification_rows",
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+ "HRYH: no_val_classification_rows"
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+ ]
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+ }
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+ }
score_targets.json ADDED
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+ {
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+ "airportMinScore": {
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+ "HRZA": 0.8,
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+ "HRYG": 0.8,
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+ },
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+ "airportStretchScore": {
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+ "HRYR": 0.83,
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+ "HRZA": 0.83,
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+ "HRYG": 0.83,
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+ "HRYH": 0.83
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+ },
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+ "72": 0.6
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+ }
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+ }
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