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README.md
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#### **Predictive Features**
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Below are the features used for prediction across all targets:
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1. **Pedigree
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Represents the familial history related to fibrotic conditions.
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2. **Age at diagnosis
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Age of the patient at the time of diagnosis. A critical factor as progression and treatment response vary with age.
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3. **FVC (L) at diagnosis
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Forced vital capacity in liters at the time of diagnosis, reflecting lung function.
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4. **FVC (%) at diagnosis
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Forced vital capacity as a percentage of the expected value for the patient’s age and sex.
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5. **DLCO (%) at diagnosis
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Diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide as a percentage, measuring gas exchange efficiency in the lungs.
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6. **RadioWorsening2y
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Radiological assessment of lung deterioration over two years. Higher values indicate significant progression.
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7. **Severity of telomere shortening - Transform 4
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Indicates the degree of telomere shortening.
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8. **Progressive disease
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Binary variable indicating whether the disease is progressive (1) or stable (0).
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9. **
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Binary variable representing the use of antifibrotic drugs. 1 indicates use; 0 indicates none.
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10. **
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Binary variable reflecting prednisone usage. 1 indicates use; 0 indicates none.
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11. **
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Binary variable indicating mycophenolate usage. 1 indicates use; 0 indicates none.
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12. **
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Forced vital capacity in liters one year after diagnosis, used to evaluate changes in lung function.
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13. **FVC (%) 1 year after diagnosis** (0.0 - 200.0):
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Forced vital capacity as a percentage one year after diagnosis.
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14. **DLCO (%) 1 year after diagnosis** (0.0 - 200.0):
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Diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide as a percentage one year after diagnosis.
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15. **Genetic mutation studied in patient** (0 - 1):
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Binary variable indicating the presence of specific genetic mutations. 1 indicates mutation found; 0 indicates none.
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16. **Comorbidities** (0 - 1):
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Binary variable representing the presence of relevant comorbidities. 1 indicates presence; 0 indicates absence.
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- **Cross-validation Accuracy**:
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The cross-validation results for "Death" show some variability across folds, but overall, the model achieves consistently high accuracy
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- **Train vs Test Accuracy**:
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- **Feature Importance**:
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- **ROC-AUC Curve**:
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With an AUC of 0.98, the model demonstrates exceptional predictive power
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##### **Prediction Target: Necessity of Transplantation**
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- **Cross-validation Accuracy**:
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Cross-validation reveals excellent model accuracy
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 at diagnosis**: Forced vital capacity in liters at the time of diagnosis, reflecting lung function.
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4. **FVC (%) at diagnosis**: Forced vital capacity as a percentage of the expected value for the patient’s age and sex.
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5. **DLCO (%) at diagnosis**: Diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide as a percentage, measuring gas exchange efficiency in the lungs.
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6. **RadioWorsening2y**: Radiological assessment of lung deterioration over two years.
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7. **Severity of telomere shortening - Transform 4**: Indicates the degree of telomere shortening.
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8. **Progressive disease**: Binary variable indicating whether the disease is progressive or stable.
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9. **Biopsy**: Binary variable indicating whether a biopsy was performed.
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10. **Genetic mutation studied in patient**: Binary variable indicating the presence of specific genetic mutations.
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11. **Comorbidities**: Binary variable representing the presence of relevant comorbidities.
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12. **Tobacco use**: Binary variable reflecting whether the patient has a history of tobacco use.
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---
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- **Cross-validation Accuracy**:
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The cross-validation results for "Death" show some variability across folds, but overall, the model achieves consistently high accuracy.
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- **Train vs Test Accuracy**:
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- **Feature Importance**:
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Features such as "Progressive disease", "DLCO (%) at diagnosis", and "FVC (%) at diagnosis" are the most influential.
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- **ROC-AUC Curve**:
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The ROC-AUC curve illustrates strong model performance, with an AUC of 0.92.
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##### **Prediction Target: Binary Diagnosis**
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- **Cross-validation Accuracy**:
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Variability in cross-validation accuracy is observed, but the model maintains high performance across most folds.
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- **Feature Importance**:
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Key predictors include "Age at diagnosis", "Pedigree", and "Tobacco use".
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- **ROC-AUC Curve**:
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The high AUC value of 0.95 indicates excellent discrimination ability.
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##### **Prediction Target: Progressive Disease**
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- **Cross-validation Accuracy**:
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Accuracy scores across folds highlight variability, but peaks show strong model performance.
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- **Train vs Test Accuracy**:
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- **Feature Importance**:
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"DLCO (%) at diagnosis", "Age at diagnosis", and "Pedigree" emerge as the dominant predictors.
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- **ROC-AUC Curve**:
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With an AUC of 0.98, the model demonstrates exceptional predictive power.
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##### **Prediction Target: Necessity of Transplantation**
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- **Cross-validation Accuracy**:
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Cross-validation reveals excellent model accuracy.
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- **Feature Importance**:
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"RadioWorsening2y", "FVC (%) 1 year after diagnosis", and "Comorbidities" are critical.
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- **ROC-AUC Curve**:
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The model achieves an AUC of 1.00.
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#### **Future Improvements**
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- **Optimizing Variable Names**:
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Review and refine variable naming conventions for clarity.
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- **Improving Model Precision**:
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Retrain the model with a larger dataset.
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- **Identifying Optimal Medical Variables**:
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Simplify the model by removing less relevant variables.
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- **Testing Model Performance with Reduced Variables**:
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Assess predictive performance with a reduced set of variables.
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- **Expanding Dataset Diversity**:
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Incorporate data from diverse demographics.
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- **Adding Longitudinal Data Analysis**:
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Integrate temporal patterns in disease progression.
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- **Real-time Model Retraining**:
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Develop mechanisms for real-time updates.
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### Associated Space
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This README provides a comprehensive guide to understanding and using the **FibroPred** predictive system effectively.
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