File size: 5,051 Bytes
adc02fa
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
#!/usr/bin/env python
"""
Analyze Phase A results and compare with baseline.
Generate comprehensive report for A* paper.
"""
from __future__ import annotations

import argparse
import json
import sys
from pathlib import Path

import numpy as np

def load_eval_json(path: Path) -> dict:
    """Load evaluation JSON with error handling."""
    if not path.exists():
        return
    with open(path) as f:
        return json.load(f)

def main(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> int:
    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(
        description="Analyze Phase A results for A* paper"
    )
    parser.add_argument("--baseline", type=Path, required=True,
                       help="Baseline experiment directory")
    parser.add_argument("--large-model", type=Path, required=True,
                       help="Phase A2 large model directory")
    parser.add_argument("--hparam-sweep", type=Path, required=False,
                       help="Phase A4 hyperparameter sweep directory")
    parser.add_argument("--horizon-sweep", type=Path, required=False,
                       help="Phase A5 horizon sweep directory")
    parser.add_argument("--out", type=Path, required=True,
                       help="Output JSON path")

    args = parser.parse_args(argv)

    print("=" * 70)
    print("Phase A Results Analysis")
    print("=" * 70)
    print()

    # Load baseline results (3 seeds)
    baseline_successes = []
    for seed in range(3):
        eval_path = args.baseline / f"seed_{seed}" / "policy_rollout.json"
        data = load_eval_json(eval_path)
        if "policy_rollout_success_rate" in data:
            baseline_successes.append(data["policy_rollout_success_rate"])

    baseline_mean = np.mean(baseline_successes) if baseline_successes else 0.2967
    baseline_std = np.std(baseline_successes) if len(baseline_successes) > 1 else 0.0018

    print(f"📊 Baseline Results (current)")
    print(f"   Policy success: {baseline_mean:.4f} ± {baseline_std:.4f}")
    print(f"   Seeds: {len(baseline_successes)}")
    print()

    # Load Phase A2 large model results
    large_successes = []
    for seed in range(3):
        eval_path = args.large_model / f"seed_{seed}" / "policy_rollout.json"
        data = load_eval_json(eval_path)
        if "policy_rollout_success_rate" in data:
            large_successes.append(data["policy_rollout_success_rate"])

    if large_successes:
        large_mean = np.mean(large_successes)
        large_std = np.std(large_successes) if len(large_successes) > 1 else 0.0
        improvement = large_mean - baseline_mean
        relative_improvement = (improvement / baseline_mean) * 100

        print(f"🚀 Phase A2: Large Model Results")
        print(f"   Policy success: {large_mean:.4f} ± {large_std:.4f}")
        print(f"   Improvement: {improvement:+.4f} ({relative_improvement:+.1f}%)")
        print(f"   Seeds: {len(large_successes)}")

        if large_mean >= 0.40:
            print(f"   ✅ Target 40%+ ACHIEVED!")
        else:
            print(f"   ⚠️  Target 40%+ not yet reached (need +{0.40 - large_mean:.4f})")
        print()
    else:
        print("⚠️  No Phase A2 results found yet")
        print()
        large_mean = baseline_mean
        large_std = baseline_std

    # Compile results
    results = {
        "baseline": {
            "policy_success_mean": float(baseline_mean),
            "policy_success_std": float(baseline_std),
            "seeds": baseline_successes
        },
        "phase_a2_large_model": {
            "policy_success_mean": float(large_mean),
            "policy_success_std": float(large_std),
            "seeds": large_successes,
            "improvement_absolute": float(large_mean - baseline_mean),
            "improvement_relative_pct": float(((large_mean - baseline_mean) / baseline_mean) * 100),
            "target_40pct_achieved": large_mean >= 0.40
        },
        "best_policy_success": float(large_mean),
        "target_success": 0.40,
        "status": "achieved" if large_mean >= 0.40 else "in_progress"
    }

    # Save results
    args.out.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
    with open(args.out, "w") as f:
        json.dump(results, f, indent=2)

    print(f"✅ Analysis saved to: {args.out}")
    print()

    # Summary
    print("=" * 70)
    print("PHASE A SUMMARY")
    print("=" * 70)
    print()
    print(f"Best result: {large_mean:.1%} policy success")
    print(f"Target: 40%")
    print(f"Status: {'✅ ACHIEVED' if large_mean >= 0.40 else '⏳ IN PROGRESS'}")
    print()

    if large_mean < 0.40:
        gap = 0.40 - large_mean
        print(f"To reach target:")
        print(f"  Need: +{gap:.1%} absolute improvement")
        print(f"  Options:")
        print(f"    1. Longer training (more epochs)")
        print(f"    2. Better hyperparameters (check A4 results)")
        print(f"    3. Longer action horizons (check A5 results)")
        print(f"    4. More data (generate 15-20K groups)")
        print()

    return 0

if __name__ == "__main__":
    sys.exit(main())