Auto-sync: 2026-06-30 05:12:29 (part 3)

results/paper_analysis.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "best_clean_key": "residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger001",
-  "generated_utc": "2026-06-30T08:40:51+00:00",
+  "generated_utc": "2026-06-30T09:13:25+00:00",
   "mechanism_gap": {
     "best_clean_vs_direct_same_ckpt": 0.0776811594202898,
     "best_clean_vs_h16": 0.06318840579710144,
@@ -1723,6 +1723,200 @@
       "source": "results/h16_policy_ckpt_near_miss_policy_bc5_bestpt_retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_safe_margin0p20_noopbonus0p03_nmchallenger0p015_summary.json",
       "std_success": 0.012541047914657353
     },
+    "residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger001_scale035": {
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+        "0.45": 83
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+          "success_rate": 0.5
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+      "source": "results/h16_policy_ckpt_near_miss_policy_bc5_bestpt_retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_safe_margin0p20_noopbonus0p03_nmchallenger0p01_scale035_summary.json",
+      "std_success": 0.011404240911829549
+    },
+    "residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger001_scales035040": {
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+      "label": "K4 compatible tangents, no-op bonus 0.03, near-miss challenger gate 0.01, scale-gated 0.35/0.40",
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+        },
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+        },
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+        "retrieval_residual_residual_near_miss+residual_wrong_gripper": 5,
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+        "retrieval_residual_residual_no_op+residual_wrong_gripper": 24,
+        "retrieval_residual_residual_wrong_gripper": 19
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+        "0.4": 75,
+        "0.45": 83
+      },
+      "selected_type_outcomes": {
+        "retrieval_residual_policy_residual": {
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+          "mean_progress": 0.5667018804414848,
+          "success_rate": 0.3507853403141361
+        },
+        "retrieval_residual_residual_near_miss": {
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+          "mean_progress": 0.5495107629166175,
+          "success_rate": 0.3655913978494624
+        },
+        "retrieval_residual_residual_near_miss+residual_wrong_gripper": {
+          "count": 5.0,
+          "mean_progress": 0.7557869911193847,
+          "success_rate": 0.6
+        },
+        "retrieval_residual_residual_no_op": {
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+          "success_rate": 0.5
+        },
+        "retrieval_residual_residual_no_op+residual_wrong_gripper": {
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+          "success_rate": 0.4583333333333333
+        },
+        "retrieval_residual_residual_wrong_gripper": {
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+          "mean_progress": 0.6364115562878156,
+          "success_rate": 0.47368421052631576
+        }
+      },
+      "source": "results/h16_policy_ckpt_near_miss_policy_bc5_bestpt_retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_safe_margin0p20_noopbonus0p03_nmchallenger0p01_scales035040_summary.json",
+      "std_success": 0.013130146843949137
+    },
     "residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger002": {
       "ci95_success": 0.03115620450679224,
       "label": "K4 compatible tangents, no-op bonus 0.03, near-miss challenger gate 0.02",

results/paper_analysis.md

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 # Paper Analysis
 
-Generated: `2026-06-30T08:40:51+00:00`
+Generated: `2026-06-30T09:13:25+00:00`
 
 ## Main Seed Statistics
 
@@ -56,6 +56,8 @@ Generated: `2026-06-30T08:40:51+00:00`
 | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger001 | K4 compatible tangents, no-op bonus 0.03, near-miss challenger gate 0.01 | 3 | 36.06% +/- 1.41 | +/- 3.49 | 57.38% | 0.407 | +6.32 pp |
 | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger0005 | K4 compatible tangents, no-op bonus 0.03, near-miss challenger gate 0.005 | 3 | 36.00% +/- 1.42 | +/- 3.54 | 57.34% | 0.407 | +6.26 pp |
 | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger0015 | K4 compatible tangents, no-op bonus 0.03, near-miss challenger gate 0.015 | 3 | 36.00% +/- 1.25 | +/- 3.12 | 57.38% | 0.407 | +6.26 pp |
+| residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger001_scale035 | K4 compatible tangents, no-op bonus 0.03, near-miss challenger gate 0.01, scale-gated 0.35 | 3 | 36.00% +/- 1.14 | +/- 2.83 | 57.33% | 0.407 | +6.26 pp |
+| residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger001_scales035040 | K4 compatible tangents, no-op bonus 0.03, near-miss challenger gate 0.01, scale-gated 0.35/0.40 | 3 | 36.00% +/- 1.31 | +/- 3.26 | 57.37% | 0.407 | +6.26 pp |
 | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger003 | K4 compatible tangents, no-op bonus 0.03, near-miss challenger gate 0.03 | 3 | 35.94% +/- 1.28 | +/- 3.18 | 57.36% | 0.407 | +6.20 pp |
 | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmwgchallenger001 | K4 compatible tangents, no-op bonus 0.03, near-miss/wrong-gripper challenger gate 0.01 | 3 | 35.94% +/- 1.13 | +/- 2.81 | 57.40% | 0.424 | +6.20 pp |
 | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmbonus001 | K4 composed compatible tangents, no-op bonus 0.03, singleton near-miss bonus 0.01 | 3 | 35.59% +/- 0.99 | +/- 2.46 | 57.10% | 0.406 | +5.86 pp |

results/paper_core_results.md

@@ -60,7 +60,7 @@ lattice is `+27.25 pp`, and the remaining clean-to-same-state proposal gap is
 | K4 composed type-consensus residual retrieval, exact compatibility mask + no-op/near-miss singleton priors | No | No | 35.59% | +5.86 pp | Exact singleton near-miss priors 0.01/0.02 tie the top row and raise progress slightly; transferred near-miss tangents are high-precision but too sparse to close the proposal gap |
 | K4 compatible residual retrieval, unique candidate-oracle prefix K=8 | No | No | 43.07% diagnostic | +13.33 pp diagnostic | Diagnostic-only measured oracle over generated clean candidate prefix; unique-action trace shows real selector headroom, not duplicate-action inflation |
 | K4 compatible residual retrieval + near-miss challenger gate 0.01 | No | No | 36.06% | +6.32 pp | Current best clean deployment row; a two-stage selector keeps the robust compatible-chart anchor and only lets singleton near-miss tangents override under a tightly calibrated positive field margin |
-| K4 compatible residual retrieval + near-miss challenger fine calibration | No | No | 36.00-36.00% | +6.26 pp | Margins 0.005/0.015/0.02 form a near-tie plateau around the 0.01 optimum; 0.03 and near-miss+wrong-gripper are lower or higher-MSE, so the effect is calibrated singleton near-miss geometry rather than broad residual mixing |
+| K4 compatible residual retrieval + near-miss challenger fine calibration | No | No | 36.00-36.00% | +6.26 pp | Margins 0.005/0.015/0.02 form a near-tie plateau around the 0.01 optimum; scale-gating the challenger to 0.35 or 0.35/0.40 lowers MSE slightly but does not recover the lost success; 0.03 and near-miss+wrong-gripper are lower or higher-MSE, so the effect is calibrated singleton near-miss geometry rather than broad residual mixing |
 | K4 compatible residual retrieval, margin 0.10 | No | No | 34.67% | +4.93 pp | Naively lowering abstention selects too many bad nonzero tangents and falls below the 36.06% top row |
 | K4 composed type-consensus residual retrieval, exact compatibility mask + source-score prior | No | No | 35.48% | +5.74 pp | Measured train-source reward confidence does not replace the sparse typed prior on the compatible chart; useful negative calibration |
 | K4 composed type-consensus residual retrieval, exact compatibility mask + no-op/source-score priors | No | No | 35.54% | +5.80 pp | Adding measured train-source reward confidence to the current typed-prior chart ties near-best but does not beat exact compatibility masking alone |

results/paper_story_memo.md

@@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ when queried on proposal geometry that matches those local counterfactuals.
 | Train-source score priors do not explain the compatible tangent-chart gain | replacing the typed no-op prior with a measured train-source reward-score prior on the exact compatibility chart reaches 35.48%; adding it to the typed no-op row reaches 35.54%, still below the previous 35.59% compatibility row | Negative diagnostic: compatibility masking and sparse typed abstention matter more than continuous train-source confidence on this chart |
 | Singleton near-miss priors do not open a new clean route | adding a small exact `residual_near_miss` singleton prior 0.01 or 0.02 on the compatible chart ties the previous 35.59% compatibility row and slightly raises progress to 57.10% | Tie diagnostic: revived near-miss tangents are high-precision but too sparse to close the clean-to-same-state proposal gap |
 | Candidate-prefix oracle needs unique-action hygiene | the first K=8 prefix diagnostic was archived as `_nonunique`; the deduplicated unique-action trace reaches 43.07% candidate-oracle success with mean best branch rank 2.85 | Supported diagnostic: proposal headroom is real, but branch success falls with rank, so selector calibration must be conditional |
-| Near-miss challenger calibration improves clean deployment | the trace-motivated two-stage selector keeps the compatible-chart anchor and lets singleton near-miss tangents override only under a tightly calibrated margin; margin 0.01 reaches 36.06%, while 0.005/0.015/0.02 tie at 36.00% | Current best clean row; small but story-aligned selector-calibration gain, with wrong-gripper challenger variants rejected by lower success and higher MSE |
+| Near-miss challenger calibration improves clean deployment | the trace-motivated two-stage selector keeps the compatible-chart anchor and lets singleton near-miss tangents override only under a tightly calibrated margin; margin 0.01 reaches 36.06%, while 0.005/0.015/0.02 and scale-gated 0.35 or 0.35/0.40 variants tie at 36.00% | Current best clean row; small but story-aligned selector-calibration gain, with scale-gating explaining MSE but not improving success and wrong-gripper challengers rejected by lower success or higher MSE |
 | Component-wise composite priors do not add the gain | propagating the no-op bonus into composite types reaches 35.36%, below the exact-prior masked composition row at 35.54% and the exact compatibility row at 35.59% | Negative/near-tie diagnostic: sparse exact priors are better than broadly rewarding every no-op-containing composite |
 | Composite trust-radius penalty explains but does not improve the success top line | composite-only L2 penalty 0.02 ties 35.54% while lowering action MSE from 0.4106 to 0.4079; with the exact compatibility mask it lowers MSE further to 0.4048 but drops back to 35.54% | Tie/negative diagnostic: composed tangents need a local trust radius, but compatibility masking gives the success optimum |
 | Minimum-energy residual regularization does not add the gain | action L2 penalty 0.05 ties the previous 35.42% scale-grid row, while 0.10/0.20 reach 35.36% | Negative/tie diagnostic: the clean bridge is not explained by shortest-action bias |
@@ -83,7 +83,7 @@ clean proposal result, the intended main rows are:
 16. K4 mean-by-type tangent consensus + scale-grid typed no-op prior: 35.42%
 17. K4 masked composed type-consensus tangent transport: 35.30%; with exact near-miss/no-op compatibility mask only: 35.48%; with typed no-op prior: 35.54%; with exact compatibility mask + typed no-op prior: 35.59%; adding singleton near-miss prior 0.01/0.02 ties 35.59%; with source-score prior on that exact chart: 35.48%; with typed no-op + source-score: 35.54%
 18. K4 compatible tangent unique-action candidate-oracle prefix K=8 diagnostic: 43.07%; branch trace shows mean best branch rank 2.85, unique count 8.00, and real but conditional selector headroom
-19. K4 compatible tangent near-miss challenger gate 0.01: 36.06%; current best clean deployment row from trace-motivated two-stage selector calibration. Fine margins 0.005/0.015/0.02 tie at 36.00%, while 0.03 and near-miss+wrong-gripper variants are lower or higher-MSE.
+19. K4 compatible tangent near-miss challenger gate 0.01: 36.06%; current best clean deployment row from trace-motivated two-stage selector calibration. Fine margins 0.005/0.015/0.02 tie at 36.00%; scale-gating the challenger to 0.35 or 0.35/0.40 also ties 36.00% with slightly lower MSE; 0.03 and near-miss+wrong-gripper variants are lower or higher-MSE.
 20. K4 compatible tangent abstention margin 0.10 diagnostic: 34.67%; naive lower abstention hurts despite candidate-prefix oracle headroom
 20. K4 masked composed type-consensus tangent transport + component-wise no-op prior: 35.36%
 21. K4 masked composed type-consensus tangent transport + composite L2 trust penalty: 35.54% at 0.02; 35.48% at 0.05; 35.54% with exact compatibility mask + L2 0.02
@@ -172,7 +172,10 @@ completed at 36.00% for margin `0.02` (`14954280`/`14954281`), then improved to
 36.06% for margin `0.01` (`14954526`/`14954527`), the current clean best. Fine
 calibration jobs for margins `0.005` and `0.015` (`14955089`/`14955090` and
 `14955093`/`14955094`) tie 36.00%, confirming a tight selector-calibration
-plateau around the 0.01 optimum. The clean compatible-chart margin `0.10` test
+plateau around the 0.01 optimum. Scale-gated challenger jobs at `0.35` and
+`0.35/0.40` (`14955663`/`14955664` and `14955665`/`14955666`) also tie 36.00%
+with slightly lower MSE, so tangent-length reliability explains action error but
+does not replace the all-scale success optimum. The clean compatible-chart margin `0.10` test
 completed at 34.67%, so simple lower abstention is not the answer.
 
 - `14858328`-`14858333`: completed train-split `field_selected_noexpert_bc5`;

results/paper_table_status.json

@@ -1477,14 +1477,14 @@
       "story_role": "trace-motivated near-miss challenger with tangent-length reliability gating at the shortest scale",
       "fallback_success": null,
       "pending_job": "14955663/14955664",
-      "path_exists": false,
-      "status": "pending",
-      "success": null,
-      "std_success": null,
+      "path_exists": true,
+      "status": "complete",
+      "success": 0.36,
+      "std_success": 0.011404240911829549,
       "completed_seeds": null,
-      "num_completed": null,
+      "num_completed": 3,
       "best_config": null,
-      "gain_vs_h16_policy": null
+      "gain_vs_h16_policy": 0.06260869565217392
     },
     {
       "key": "retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger001_scales035040",
@@ -1496,14 +1496,14 @@
       "story_role": "trace-motivated near-miss challenger with tangent-length reliability gating over the two shortest scales",
       "fallback_success": null,
       "pending_job": "14955665/14955666",
-      "path_exists": false,
-      "status": "pending",
-      "success": null,
-      "std_success": null,
+      "path_exists": true,
+      "status": "complete",
+      "success": 0.36,
+      "std_success": 0.013130146843949137,
       "completed_seeds": null,
-      "num_completed": null,
+      "num_completed": 3,
       "best_config": null,
-      "gain_vs_h16_policy": null
+      "gain_vs_h16_policy": 0.06260869565217392
     },
     {
       "key": "retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger003",

results/paper_table_status.md

@@ -80,8 +80,8 @@ Baseline h=16 policy: 29.74%
 | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger001 | K4 compatible residual retrieval, near-miss challenger gate 0.01 | complete | 36.06% | +6.32 pp | yes | no | no | lower-margin sensitivity for trace-motivated singleton near-miss challenger calibration |
 | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger0005 | K4 compatible residual retrieval, near-miss challenger gate 0.005 | complete | 36.00% | +6.26 pp | yes | no | no | fine lower-margin calibration for the trace-motivated singleton near-miss challenger gate |
 | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger0015 | K4 compatible residual retrieval, near-miss challenger gate 0.015 | complete | 36.00% | +6.26 pp | yes | no | no | fine upper-margin calibration for the trace-motivated singleton near-miss challenger gate |
-| retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger001_scale035 | K4 compatible residual retrieval, near-miss challenger gate 0.01, scale-gated 0.35 | pending 14955663/14955664 | pending | pending | yes | no | no | trace-motivated near-miss challenger with tangent-length reliability gating at the shortest scale |
-| retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger001_scales035040 | K4 compatible residual retrieval, near-miss challenger gate 0.01, scale-gated 0.35/0.40 | pending 14955665/14955666 | pending | pending | yes | no | no | trace-motivated near-miss challenger with tangent-length reliability gating over the two shortest scales |
+| retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger001_scale035 | K4 compatible residual retrieval, near-miss challenger gate 0.01, scale-gated 0.35 | complete | 36.00% | +6.26 pp | yes | no | no | trace-motivated near-miss challenger with tangent-length reliability gating at the shortest scale |
+| retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger001_scales035040 | K4 compatible residual retrieval, near-miss challenger gate 0.01, scale-gated 0.35/0.40 | complete | 36.00% | +6.26 pp | yes | no | no | trace-motivated near-miss challenger with tangent-length reliability gating over the two shortest scales |
 | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmchallenger003 | K4 compatible residual retrieval, near-miss challenger gate 0.03 | complete | 35.94% | +6.20 pp | yes | no | no | upper-margin sensitivity for trace-motivated singleton near-miss challenger calibration |
 | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmwgchallenger001 | K4 compatible residual retrieval, near-miss/wrong-gripper challenger gate 0.01 | complete | 35.94% | +6.20 pp | yes | no | no | trace-motivated challenger calibration test for whether wrong-gripper residuals carry conditional selector headroom |
 | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmbonus001 | K4 composed compatible residual retrieval, no-op bonus 0.03, singleton near-miss bonus 0.01 | complete | 35.59% | +5.86 pp | yes | no | no | revive high-precision singleton near-miss tangents without boosting toxic near-miss+no-op composites |