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Auto-sync: 2026-06-29 19:11:23 (part 2)

Browse files
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results/paper_analysis.md CHANGED
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1
  # Paper Analysis
2
 
3
- Generated: `2026-06-29T22:29:09+00:00`
4
 
5
  ## Main Seed Statistics
6
 
@@ -49,8 +49,8 @@ Generated: `2026-06-29T22:29:09+00:00`
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  | residual_k4_composemasked_grid035040045_noopbonus003 | K4 composed type-consensus tangents, masked, scales 0.35/0.40/0.45, no-op bonus 0.03 | 3 | 35.54% +/- 1.02 | +/- 2.53 | 57.02% | 0.411 | +5.80 pp |
50
  | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045 | K4 composed type-consensus tangents, masked, drop near-miss+no-op composite | 3 | 35.48% +/- 1.25 | +/- 3.12 | 57.00% | 0.406 | +5.74 pp |
51
  | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003 | K4 composed type-consensus tangents, masked, drop near-miss+no-op composite | 3 | 35.59% +/- 0.99 | +/- 2.46 | 57.07% | 0.406 | +5.86 pp |
52
- | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_margin010_noopbonus003 | K4 compatible tangents, margin 0.10, no-op bonus 0.03 | 0 | missing | missing | missing | missing | missing |
53
- | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_oraclek8 | K4 compatible tangents, no-op bonus 0.03, candidate-oracle prefix K=8 diagnostic | 0 | missing | missing | missing | missing | missing |
54
  | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmbonus001 | K4 composed compatible tangents, no-op bonus 0.03, singleton near-miss bonus 0.01 | 3 | 35.59% +/- 0.99 | +/- 2.46 | 57.10% | 0.406 | +5.86 pp |
55
  | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmbonus002 | K4 composed compatible tangents, no-op bonus 0.03, singleton near-miss bonus 0.02 | 3 | 35.59% +/- 0.99 | +/- 2.46 | 57.10% | 0.406 | +5.86 pp |
56
  | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_srcscorebonus002 | K4 composed type-consensus tangents, masked, drop near-miss+no-op composite, source-score bonus 0.02 | 3 | 35.48% +/- 1.22 | +/- 3.02 | 57.02% | 0.408 | +5.74 pp |
@@ -98,8 +98,8 @@ Generated: `2026-06-29T22:29:09+00:00`
98
 
99
  | comparison | seeds | mean delta | 95% CI | seed deltas |
100
  |---|---:|---:|---:|---|
101
- | best_clean - canonical_h16 | 3 | +5.86 pp | +/- 4.37 | 0:+6.96, 1:+3.83, 2:+6.78 |
102
- | best_clean - direct_same_ckpt | 3 | +7.30 pp | +/- 4.12 | 0:+7.48, 1:+5.57, 2:+8.87 |
103
  | no_expert_lattice - canonical_h16 | 3 | +27.25 pp | +/- 8.58 | 0:+23.30, 1:+28.70, 2:+29.74 |
104
  | full_lattice - no_expert_lattice | 3 | +12.35 pp | +/- 2.63 | 0:+13.57, 1:+11.83, 2:+11.65 |
105
  | policy_candidate_lattice - no_expert_lattice | 3 | -16.29 pp | +/- 7.55 | 0:-15.48, 1:-13.74, 2:-19.65 |
@@ -110,25 +110,31 @@ Generated: `2026-06-29T22:29:09+00:00`
110
  |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
111
  | LiftPegUpright-v1 | 23.06% | 26.34% | 62.90% | 61.72% | 73.19% | +3.28 pp | +35.37 pp |
112
  | PickCube-v1 | 20.59% | 32.78% | 58.13% | 62.15% | 84.19% | +12.20 pp | +29.37 pp |
113
- | PullCube-v1 | 19.79% | 20.47% | 15.02% | 19.85% | 22.41% | +0.69 pp | -0.63 pp |
114
- | PushCube-v1 | 75.06% | 75.74% | 82.54% | 80.10% | 81.92% | +0.68 pp | +4.36 pp |
115
- | StackCube-v1 | 14.10% | 20.04% | 50.41% | 48.25% | 60.83% | +5.95 pp | +28.21 pp |
116
 
117
  ## Mechanism Gap
118
 
119
- - Best clean residual transport improves over canonical h16 by +5.86 pp.
120
  - Same-state no-expert lattice improves over canonical h16 by +27.25 pp.
121
- - Remaining clean-to-same-state proposal gap is +21.39 pp.
122
  - Full lattice adds expert proposals and reaches 69.33%, a +12.35 pp gain over no-expert.
123
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
124
  ## Selection Histograms
125
 
126
  - `same_state_near_miss`: lattice_near_miss=1725 (100.0%)
127
  - `same_state_no_expert`: lattice_near_miss=1263 (73.2%), lattice_no_op=222 (12.9%), lattice_random_negative=144 (8.3%), lattice_wrong_gripper=62 (3.6%), lattice_wrong_direction=34 (2.0%)
128
  - `same_state_policy_baseline`: policy_continuous=1022 (59.2%), lattice_near_miss=448 (26.0%), lattice_no_op=119 (6.9%), lattice_random_negative=75 (4.3%), lattice_wrong_gripper=45 (2.6%), lattice_wrong_direction=16 (0.9%)
129
  - `same_state_full`: lattice_expert=977 (56.6%), lattice_near_miss=348 (20.2%), lattice_no_op=177 (10.3%), lattice_random_negative=138 (8.0%), lattice_wrong_gripper=55 (3.2%), lattice_wrong_direction=30 (1.7%)
130
- - `residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003`: retrieval_residual_policy_residual=1613 (93.5%), retrieval_residual_residual_no_op=56 (3.2%), retrieval_residual_residual_no_op+residual_wrong_gripper=24 (1.4%), retrieval_residual_residual_wrong_gripper=19 (1.1%), retrieval_residual_residual_near_miss=8 (0.5%), retrieval_residual_residual_near_miss+residual_wrong_gripper=5 (0.3%)
131
- - `residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003` residual scale counts: {'0.35': 1631, '0.4': 11, '0.45': 83}
132
 
133
  ## Selected-Type Outcomes
134
 
 
1
  # Paper Analysis
2
 
3
+ Generated: `2026-06-29T23:07:43+00:00`
4
 
5
  ## Main Seed Statistics
6
 
 
49
  | residual_k4_composemasked_grid035040045_noopbonus003 | K4 composed type-consensus tangents, masked, scales 0.35/0.40/0.45, no-op bonus 0.03 | 3 | 35.54% +/- 1.02 | +/- 2.53 | 57.02% | 0.411 | +5.80 pp |
50
  | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045 | K4 composed type-consensus tangents, masked, drop near-miss+no-op composite | 3 | 35.48% +/- 1.25 | +/- 3.12 | 57.00% | 0.406 | +5.74 pp |
51
  | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003 | K4 composed type-consensus tangents, masked, drop near-miss+no-op composite | 3 | 35.59% +/- 0.99 | +/- 2.46 | 57.07% | 0.406 | +5.86 pp |
52
+ | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_margin010_noopbonus003 | K4 compatible tangents, margin 0.10, no-op bonus 0.03 | 3 | 34.67% +/- 0.96 | +/- 2.38 | 56.45% | 0.418 | +4.93 pp |
53
+ | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_oraclek8 | K4 compatible tangents, no-op bonus 0.03, candidate-oracle prefix K=8 diagnostic | 3 | 35.65% +/- 1.22 | +/- 3.02 | 57.16% | 0.406 | +5.91 pp |
54
  | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmbonus001 | K4 composed compatible tangents, no-op bonus 0.03, singleton near-miss bonus 0.01 | 3 | 35.59% +/- 0.99 | +/- 2.46 | 57.10% | 0.406 | +5.86 pp |
55
  | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmbonus002 | K4 composed compatible tangents, no-op bonus 0.03, singleton near-miss bonus 0.02 | 3 | 35.59% +/- 0.99 | +/- 2.46 | 57.10% | 0.406 | +5.86 pp |
56
  | residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_srcscorebonus002 | K4 composed type-consensus tangents, masked, drop near-miss+no-op composite, source-score bonus 0.02 | 3 | 35.48% +/- 1.22 | +/- 3.02 | 57.02% | 0.408 | +5.74 pp |
 
98
 
99
  | comparison | seeds | mean delta | 95% CI | seed deltas |
100
  |---|---:|---:|---:|---|
101
+ | best_clean - canonical_h16 | 3 | +5.91 pp | +/- 4.51 | 0:+6.78, 1:+3.83, 2:+7.13 |
102
+ | best_clean - direct_same_ckpt | 3 | +7.36 pp | +/- 4.54 | 0:+7.30, 1:+5.57, 2:+9.22 |
103
  | no_expert_lattice - canonical_h16 | 3 | +27.25 pp | +/- 8.58 | 0:+23.30, 1:+28.70, 2:+29.74 |
104
  | full_lattice - no_expert_lattice | 3 | +12.35 pp | +/- 2.63 | 0:+13.57, 1:+11.83, 2:+11.65 |
105
  | policy_candidate_lattice - no_expert_lattice | 3 | -16.29 pp | +/- 7.55 | 0:-15.48, 1:-13.74, 2:-19.65 |
 
110
  |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
111
  | LiftPegUpright-v1 | 23.06% | 26.34% | 62.90% | 61.72% | 73.19% | +3.28 pp | +35.37 pp |
112
  | PickCube-v1 | 20.59% | 32.78% | 58.13% | 62.15% | 84.19% | +12.20 pp | +29.37 pp |
113
+ | PullCube-v1 | 19.79% | 21.72% | 15.02% | 19.85% | 22.41% | +1.93 pp | -1.87 pp |
114
+ | PushCube-v1 | 75.06% | 75.42% | 82.54% | 80.10% | 81.92% | +0.36 pp | +4.69 pp |
115
+ | StackCube-v1 | 14.10% | 19.71% | 50.41% | 48.25% | 60.83% | +5.61 pp | +28.54 pp |
116
 
117
  ## Mechanism Gap
118
 
119
+ - Best clean residual transport improves over canonical h16 by +5.91 pp.
120
  - Same-state no-expert lattice improves over canonical h16 by +27.25 pp.
121
+ - Remaining clean-to-same-state proposal gap is +21.33 pp.
122
  - Full lattice adds expert proposals and reaches 69.33%, a +12.35 pp gain over no-expert.
123
 
124
+ ## Candidate-Oracle Diagnostic
125
+
126
+ - Oracle over the deployed candidate prefix reaches 42.20% with mean progress 63.64%; this is diagnostic-only because it uses measured rollout outcomes after generating candidates.
127
+ - Mean oracle-prefix score gain over the selected branch is +0.145, which isolates ranking/abstention headroom inside the clean proposal set.
128
+ - Candidate-oracle best type counts: {'retrieval_residual_policy_residual': 945, 'retrieval_residual_residual_near_miss': 211, 'retrieval_residual_residual_near_miss+residual_wrong_gripper': 76, 'retrieval_residual_residual_no_op': 180, 'retrieval_residual_residual_no_op+residual_wrong_gripper': 77, 'retrieval_residual_residual_wrong_gripper': 236}.
129
+
130
  ## Selection Histograms
131
 
132
  - `same_state_near_miss`: lattice_near_miss=1725 (100.0%)
133
  - `same_state_no_expert`: lattice_near_miss=1263 (73.2%), lattice_no_op=222 (12.9%), lattice_random_negative=144 (8.3%), lattice_wrong_gripper=62 (3.6%), lattice_wrong_direction=34 (2.0%)
134
  - `same_state_policy_baseline`: policy_continuous=1022 (59.2%), lattice_near_miss=448 (26.0%), lattice_no_op=119 (6.9%), lattice_random_negative=75 (4.3%), lattice_wrong_gripper=45 (2.6%), lattice_wrong_direction=16 (0.9%)
135
  - `same_state_full`: lattice_expert=977 (56.6%), lattice_near_miss=348 (20.2%), lattice_no_op=177 (10.3%), lattice_random_negative=138 (8.0%), lattice_wrong_gripper=55 (3.2%), lattice_wrong_direction=30 (1.7%)
136
+ - `residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_oraclek8`: retrieval_residual_policy_residual=1613 (93.5%), retrieval_residual_residual_no_op=56 (3.2%), retrieval_residual_residual_no_op+residual_wrong_gripper=24 (1.4%), retrieval_residual_residual_wrong_gripper=19 (1.1%), retrieval_residual_residual_near_miss=8 (0.5%), retrieval_residual_residual_near_miss+residual_wrong_gripper=5 (0.3%)
137
+ - `residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_oraclek8` residual scale counts: {'0.35': 1631, '0.4': 11, '0.45': 83}
138
 
139
  ## Selected-Type Outcomes
140
 
results/paper_table_status.json CHANGED
@@ -1344,14 +1344,14 @@
1344
  "story_role": "oracle-motivated abstention sensitivity on the compatible local tangent chart",
1345
  "fallback_success": null,
1346
  "pending_job": "14936131/14936132",
1347
- "path_exists": false,
1348
- "status": "pending",
1349
- "success": null,
1350
- "std_success": null,
1351
  "completed_seeds": null,
1352
- "num_completed": null,
1353
  "best_config": null,
1354
- "gain_vs_h16_policy": null
1355
  },
1356
  {
1357
  "key": "retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_oraclek8",
@@ -1363,14 +1363,14 @@
1363
  "story_role": "diagnostic oracle over generated clean candidate prefix to separate proposal headroom from field ranking",
1364
  "fallback_success": null,
1365
  "pending_job": "14935471/14935502",
1366
- "path_exists": false,
1367
- "status": "pending",
1368
- "success": null,
1369
- "std_success": null,
1370
  "completed_seeds": null,
1371
- "num_completed": null,
1372
  "best_config": null,
1373
- "gain_vs_h16_policy": null
1374
  },
1375
  {
1376
  "key": "retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmbonus001",
@@ -2618,6 +2618,7 @@
2618
  "KNN counterfactual residual retrieval is a positive clean bridge but remains below the current clean best.",
2619
  "K4 train-state residual retrieval, scale 0.40, safe residuals, mean-by-type tangent consensus improves the clean bridge but is not yet the main result.",
2620
  "Policy-baseline abstention inside the same-state no-expert lattice drops from 56.99% to 40.70%, so the mechanism result should emphasize counterfactual proposal geometry rather than policy fallback.",
2621
- "Singleton near-miss priors 0.01/0.02 tie the clean best rather than improving it; the compatible chart preserves high-precision near-miss tangents, but they remain sparse."
 
2622
  ]
2623
  }
 
1344
  "story_role": "oracle-motivated abstention sensitivity on the compatible local tangent chart",
1345
  "fallback_success": null,
1346
  "pending_job": "14936131/14936132",
1347
+ "path_exists": true,
1348
+ "status": "complete",
1349
+ "success": 0.3466666666666667,
1350
+ "std_success": 0.00957838356049757,
1351
  "completed_seeds": null,
1352
+ "num_completed": 3,
1353
  "best_config": null,
1354
+ "gain_vs_h16_policy": 0.04927536231884061
1355
  },
1356
  {
1357
  "key": "retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_oraclek8",
 
1363
  "story_role": "diagnostic oracle over generated clean candidate prefix to separate proposal headroom from field ranking",
1364
  "fallback_success": null,
1365
  "pending_job": "14935471/14935502",
1366
+ "path_exists": true,
1367
+ "status": "complete",
1368
+ "success": 0.4220289855072464,
1369
+ "std_success": 0.012173913043478276,
1370
  "completed_seeds": null,
1371
+ "num_completed": 3,
1372
  "best_config": null,
1373
+ "gain_vs_h16_policy": 0.12463768115942031
1374
  },
1375
  {
1376
  "key": "retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmbonus001",
 
2618
  "KNN counterfactual residual retrieval is a positive clean bridge but remains below the current clean best.",
2619
  "K4 train-state residual retrieval, scale 0.40, safe residuals, mean-by-type tangent consensus improves the clean bridge but is not yet the main result.",
2620
  "Policy-baseline abstention inside the same-state no-expert lattice drops from 56.99% to 40.70%, so the mechanism result should emphasize counterfactual proposal geometry rather than policy fallback.",
2621
+ "Singleton near-miss priors 0.01/0.02 tie the clean best rather than improving it; the compatible chart preserves high-precision near-miss tangents, but they remain sparse.",
2622
+ "Candidate-oracle prefix K=8 is diagnostic-only; compare it to the clean selected row to decide whether the next paper move should be proposal generation or field ranking."
2623
  ]
2624
  }
results/paper_table_status.md CHANGED
@@ -73,8 +73,8 @@ Baseline h=16 policy: 29.74%
73
  | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_grid035040045_noopbonus003 | K4 composed type-consensus residual retrieval, masked, scales 0.35/0.40/0.45, margin 0.20, no-op bonus 0.03 | complete | 35.54% | +5.80 pp | yes | no | no | local tangent composition with anti-goal composite masks on the current best typed prior |
74
  | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045 | K4 composed type-consensus residual retrieval, masked, drop near-miss+no-op composite | complete | 35.48% | +5.74 pp | yes | no | no | exact compatibility mask without typed no-op prior |
75
  | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003 | K4 composed type-consensus residual retrieval, masked, drop near-miss+no-op composite | complete | 35.59% | +5.86 pp | yes | no | no | exact incompatibility mask for one weak composed tangent pair |
76
- | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_margin010_noopbonus003 | K4 compatible residual retrieval, margin 0.10, no-op bonus 0.03 | pending 14936131/14936132 | pending | pending | yes | no | no | oracle-motivated abstention sensitivity on the compatible local tangent chart |
77
- | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_oraclek8 | K4 compatible residual retrieval, candidate-oracle prefix K=8 diagnostic | pending 14935471/14935502 | pending | pending | diagnostic | no | no | diagnostic oracle over generated clean candidate prefix to separate proposal headroom from field ranking |
78
  | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmbonus001 | K4 composed compatible residual retrieval, no-op bonus 0.03, singleton near-miss bonus 0.01 | complete | 35.59% | +5.86 pp | yes | no | no | revive high-precision singleton near-miss tangents without boosting toxic near-miss+no-op composites |
79
  | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmbonus002 | K4 composed compatible residual retrieval, no-op bonus 0.03, singleton near-miss bonus 0.02 | complete | 35.59% | +5.86 pp | yes | no | no | stronger singleton near-miss revival prior on the compatible local tangent chart |
80
  | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_srcscorebonus002 | K4 composed type-consensus residual retrieval, masked, drop near-miss+no-op composite, source-score bonus 0.02 | complete | 35.48% | +5.74 pp | yes | no | no | train-measured source-score prior on the compatible local tangent chart |
@@ -151,3 +151,4 @@ Baseline h=16 policy: 29.74%
151
  - K4 train-state residual retrieval, scale 0.40, safe residuals, mean-by-type tangent consensus improves the clean bridge but is not yet the main result.
152
  - Policy-baseline abstention inside the same-state no-expert lattice drops from 56.99% to 40.70%, so the mechanism result should emphasize counterfactual proposal geometry rather than policy fallback.
153
  - Singleton near-miss priors 0.01/0.02 tie the clean best rather than improving it; the compatible chart preserves high-precision near-miss tangents, but they remain sparse.
 
 
73
  | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_grid035040045_noopbonus003 | K4 composed type-consensus residual retrieval, masked, scales 0.35/0.40/0.45, margin 0.20, no-op bonus 0.03 | complete | 35.54% | +5.80 pp | yes | no | no | local tangent composition with anti-goal composite masks on the current best typed prior |
74
  | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045 | K4 composed type-consensus residual retrieval, masked, drop near-miss+no-op composite | complete | 35.48% | +5.74 pp | yes | no | no | exact compatibility mask without typed no-op prior |
75
  | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003 | K4 composed type-consensus residual retrieval, masked, drop near-miss+no-op composite | complete | 35.59% | +5.86 pp | yes | no | no | exact incompatibility mask for one weak composed tangent pair |
76
+ | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_margin010_noopbonus003 | K4 compatible residual retrieval, margin 0.10, no-op bonus 0.03 | complete | 34.67% | +4.93 pp | yes | no | no | oracle-motivated abstention sensitivity on the compatible local tangent chart |
77
+ | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_oraclek8 | K4 compatible residual retrieval, candidate-oracle prefix K=8 diagnostic | complete | 42.20% | +12.46 pp | diagnostic | no | no | diagnostic oracle over generated clean candidate prefix to separate proposal headroom from field ranking |
78
  | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmbonus001 | K4 composed compatible residual retrieval, no-op bonus 0.03, singleton near-miss bonus 0.01 | complete | 35.59% | +5.86 pp | yes | no | no | revive high-precision singleton near-miss tangents without boosting toxic near-miss+no-op composites |
79
  | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_noopbonus003_nmbonus002 | K4 composed compatible residual retrieval, no-op bonus 0.03, singleton near-miss bonus 0.02 | complete | 35.59% | +5.86 pp | yes | no | no | stronger singleton near-miss revival prior on the compatible local tangent chart |
80
  | retrieval_residual_k4_composemasked_dropnmnoop_grid035040045_srcscorebonus002 | K4 composed type-consensus residual retrieval, masked, drop near-miss+no-op composite, source-score bonus 0.02 | complete | 35.48% | +5.74 pp | yes | no | no | train-measured source-score prior on the compatible local tangent chart |
 
151
  - K4 train-state residual retrieval, scale 0.40, safe residuals, mean-by-type tangent consensus improves the clean bridge but is not yet the main result.
152
  - Policy-baseline abstention inside the same-state no-expert lattice drops from 56.99% to 40.70%, so the mechanism result should emphasize counterfactual proposal geometry rather than policy fallback.
153
  - Singleton near-miss priors 0.01/0.02 tie the clean best rather than improving it; the compatible chart preserves high-precision near-miss tangents, but they remain sparse.
154
+ - Candidate-oracle prefix K=8 is diagnostic-only; compare it to the clean selected row to decide whether the next paper move should be proposal generation or field ranking.