Update model card with generalization findings
Browse files
README.md
CHANGED
|
@@ -76,8 +76,39 @@ The model is steerable - changing attitudes while holding demographics constant
|
|
| 76 |
|
| 77 |
| Attitude Config | Predicted Ideology |
|
| 78 |
|-----------------|-------------------|
|
| 79 |
-
| Satisfied + Economy better + More immigration |
|
| 80 |
-
| Dissatisfied + Economy worse + Fewer immigration |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 81 |
|
| 82 |
## Citation
|
| 83 |
|
|
|
|
| 76 |
|
| 77 |
| Attitude Config | Predicted Ideology |
|
| 78 |
|-----------------|-------------------|
|
| 79 |
+
| Satisfied + Economy better + More immigration | 2 (left) |
|
| 80 |
+
| Dissatisfied + Economy worse + Fewer immigration | 6 (center-right) |
|
| 81 |
+
|
| 82 |
+
**4-point ideology swing** from attitude changes alone, holding demographics constant.
|
| 83 |
+
|
| 84 |
+
## Generalization to Unseen Questions
|
| 85 |
+
|
| 86 |
+
We tested the model on CES questions it was **never trained on**:
|
| 87 |
+
|
| 88 |
+
| Question Type | Example | Correlation (r) |
|
| 89 |
+
|--------------|---------|-----------------|
|
| 90 |
+
| **High-salience (Identity)** | COVID satisfaction | **0.60** |
|
| 91 |
+
| **High-salience (Identity)** | Carbon tax position | **0.49** |
|
| 92 |
+
| Low-salience (Policy) | Defence spending | 0.12 |
|
| 93 |
+
| Low-salience (Policy) | Environment spending | -0.12 |
|
| 94 |
+
|
| 95 |
+
### Key Finding
|
| 96 |
+
|
| 97 |
+
The model learned **political identity**, not policy platforms:
|
| 98 |
+
- **Carbon Tax** (r=0.49) vs **Environment Spending** (r=-0.12) — both are "about the environment" but carbon tax is a tribal identity marker while spending is a technocratic detail
|
| 99 |
+
- The 3 psychographic variables compress the "culture war" aspects of Canadian politics
|
| 100 |
+
- Model excels at identity/affect prediction, struggles with budget details
|
| 101 |
+
|
| 102 |
+
### Implications
|
| 103 |
+
|
| 104 |
+
This model is ideal for:
|
| 105 |
+
- Simulating political discourse and polarization
|
| 106 |
+
- Agent-based models of partisan sorting
|
| 107 |
+
- Studying affective political identity
|
| 108 |
+
|
| 109 |
+
Not suitable for:
|
| 110 |
+
- Predicting specific policy preferences
|
| 111 |
+
- Budget allocation modeling
|
| 112 |
|
| 113 |
## Citation
|
| 114 |
|