File size: 18,423 Bytes
dfe11f8 | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 | /**
* Cliente de integracion con Polymarket Gamma API.
*
* Responsabilidades:
* - fetchActiveMarkets(limit) → obtiene mercados activos desde gamma-api.polymarket.com.
* - mapMarket(raw) → normaliza campos crudos a la estructura del modelo Market:
* * id, question, category, countryCode
* * yesPrice / noPrice (parseados desde outcomePrices JSON)
* * volumeEur / liquidityEur (convertidos de USD a EUR con tasa 0.93)
* * status (active | closed | resolved) derivado de flags active/closed/archived
* * closesAt, lastSynced
*
* No requiere autenticacion. No usa CLOB API (solo datos publicos de mercado).
* Consumido por scheduler.js cada 30 segundos.
*/
import { httpGet } from '../utils/httpClient.js';
import { logger } from '../utils/logger.js';
const GAMMA_MARKETS_URL = 'https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets';
const GAMMA_EVENTS_URL = 'https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events';
const USD_TO_EUR = 0.93;
/**
* Tags de Polymarket que usamos para fetching diversificado.
* El endpoint /markets IGNORA tag_id, pero /events lo respeta correctamente.
* Cada tag aporta N mercados al pool global - el weight controla cuantos.
*
* Tags verificados manualmente desde gamma-api.polymarket.com/tags.
*/
const TAG_SLICES = [
// Financieros directos (mayor peso - mas alpha)
{ tagId: 1312, slug: 'crypto-prices', category: 'cripto', limit: 25 },
{ tagId: 602, slug: 'stock-market', category: 'economía', limit: 25 },
{ tagId: 159, slug: 'fed', category: 'economía', limit: 15 },
{ tagId: 992, slug: 'labor-market', category: 'economía', limit: 10 },
{ tagId: 1562, slug: 'market-caps', category: 'economía', limit: 10 },
// Tech / AI (alta accionabilidad)
{ tagId: 1401, slug: 'tech', category: 'ciencia', limit: 20 },
{ tagId: 22, slug: 'technology', category: 'ciencia', limit: 15 },
{ tagId: 101999, slug: 'big-tech', category: 'ciencia', limit: 15 },
{ tagId: 537, slug: 'openai', category: 'ciencia', limit: 10 },
// Geopolitica (afecta oil/gold/defense)
{ tagId: 154, slug: 'middle-east', category: 'geopolítica', limit: 20 },
{ tagId: 78, slug: 'iran', category: 'geopolítica', limit: 10 },
{ tagId: 180, slug: 'israel', category: 'geopolítica', limit: 10 },
{ tagId: 114, slug: 'syria', category: 'geopolítica', limit: 10 },
{ tagId: 172, slug: 'oil-industry', category: 'economía', limit: 15 },
{ tagId: 248, slug: 'energy-industry', category: 'economía', limit: 10 },
// Regional coverage (variedad geografica)
{ tagId: 100410, slug: 'europe', category: 'geopolítica', limit: 20 },
{ tagId: 167, slug: 'argentina', category: 'geopolítica', limit: 10 },
{ tagId: 872, slug: 'pakistan', category: 'geopolítica', limit: 10 },
{ tagId: 525, slug: 'netherlands', category: 'geopolítica', limit: 5 },
{ tagId: 258, slug: 'taiwan-election', category: 'geopolítica', limit: 8 },
{ tagId: 104846, slug: 'uk-elections', category: 'política', limit: 8 },
{ tagId: 103388, slug: 'thailand-election', category: 'geopolítica', limit: 5 },
{ tagId: 104090, slug: 'french-mayoral', category: 'política', limit: 5 },
{ tagId: 104968, slug: 'mexico-election', category: 'política', limit: 8 },
{ tagId: 103219, slug: 'bolivia-election', category: 'política', limit: 5 },
// Politica (peso moderado - es donde hay mas volumen)
{ tagId: 2, slug: 'politics', category: 'política', limit: 15 },
{ tagId: 789, slug: 'us-politics', category: 'política', limit: 10 },
{ tagId: 126, slug: 'trump', category: 'política', limit: 10 },
// Corporativo / clima / cultura
{ tagId: 550, slug: 'corporate-news', category: 'economía', limit: 15 },
{ tagId: 102890, slug: 'climate-change', category: 'ciencia', limit: 10 },
{ tagId: 596, slug: 'pop-culture', category: 'entretenimiento', limit: 10 },
{ tagId: 100451, slug: 'breaking', category: 'general', limit: 15 },
];
function mapStatus({ closed, archived }) {
if (archived) return 'resolved';
if (closed) return 'closed';
return 'active';
}
function parsePrices(outcomePrices) {
try {
const arr = JSON.parse(outcomePrices);
return {
yesPrice: arr[0] != null ? parseFloat(arr[0]) : null,
noPrice: arr[1] != null ? parseFloat(arr[1]) : null,
};
} catch {
return { yesPrice: null, noPrice: null };
}
}
function inferCategory(question, eventTitle = '') {
const text = `${question} ${eventTitle}`.toLowerCase();
const rules = [
{ keywords: ['bitcoin', 'btc', 'ethereum', 'eth', 'crypto', 'blockchain', 'solana', 'cardano', 'altcoin', 'defi', 'nft'], category: 'cripto' },
{ keywords: ['fed', 'ecb', 'rate', 'interest', 'inflation', 'gdp', 'recession', 'economy', 'tariff', 'trade', 'dollar', 'euro', 'yen', 'bank', 'finance', 'stock market', 'sp500', 'nasdaq', 'unemployment', 'cpi', 'ppi'], category: 'economía' },
{ keywords: ['trump', 'biden', 'election', 'president', 'democrat', 'republican', 'congress', 'senate', 'house', 'vote', 'impeach', 'nominee', 'primary', 'governor', 'mayor', 'political', 'politics', 'campaign'], category: 'política' },
{ keywords: ['war', 'ukraine', 'russia', 'putin', 'china', 'xi', 'iran', 'israel', 'gaza', 'north korea', 'taiwan', 'invasion', 'missile', 'nuclear', 'sanctions', 'diplomatic', 'embassy', 'conflict'], category: 'geopolítica' },
{ keywords: ['super bowl', 'world cup', 'olympics', 'nba', 'nfl', 'mlb', 'soccer', 'football', 'tennis', 'golf', 'mvp', 'championship', 'fifa', 'uefa', 'premier league', 'playoff'], category: 'deportes' },
{ keywords: ['album', 'movie', 'oscar', 'grammy', 'emmy', 'hollywood', 'actor', 'singer', 'celebrity', 'gta', 'video game', 'song', 'chart', 'streaming', 'netflix', 'disney', 'marvel', 'rockstar'], category: 'entretenimiento' },
{ keywords: ['ai', 'spacex', 'mars', 'rocket', 'vaccine', 'climate', 'covid', 'pandemic', 'tesla', 'elon', 'neuralink', 'fusion', 'crispr'], category: 'ciencia' },
];
for (const rule of rules) {
if (rule.keywords.some((kw) => text.includes(kw))) {
return rule.category;
}
}
return 'general';
}
function inferCountryCode(question, eventTitle = '') {
// Envolver con espacios para evitar coincidencias parciales de substrings
const text = ` ${question} ${eventTitle} `.toLowerCase();
const rules = [
// Estados Unidos
{ keywords: [' usa ', ' us ', ' america ', ' american ', ' trump ', ' biden ', ' clinton ', ' obama ', ' harris ', ' pence ', ' sanders ', ' warren ', ' mcconnell ', ' pelosi ', ' schumer ', ' congress ', ' senate ', ' house of representatives ', ' fed ', ' super bowl ', ' nba ', ' nfl ', ' mlb ', ' nasdaq ', ' sp500 ', ' hollywood ', ' california ', ' new york ', ' texas ', ' florida ', ' white house ', ' pentagon ', ' supreme court ', ' capitol ', ' governor of ', ' democratic nomination ', ' republican nomination ', ' presidential '], code: 'US' },
// Reino Unido
{ keywords: [' uk ', ' britain ', ' british ', ' england ', ' london ', ' brexit ', ' boe ', ' pound ', ' sterling ', ' scotland ', ' wales ', ' king charles ', ' prime minister ', ' parliament ', ' westminster ', ' tory ', ' labour party '], code: 'GB' },
// Alemania
{ keywords: [' germany ', ' german ', ' merkel ', ' scholz ', ' berlin ', ' bundestag ', ' deutsche '], code: 'DE' },
// Francia
{ keywords: [' france ', ' french ', ' macron ', ' paris ', ' le pen ', ' élysée '], code: 'FR' },
// Italia
{ keywords: [' italy ', ' italian ', ' meloni ', ' rome ', ' berlusconi '], code: 'IT' },
// España
{ keywords: [' spain ', ' spanish ', ' sánchez ', ' madrid ', ' catalonia ', ' catalan '], code: 'ES' },
// China
{ keywords: [' china ', ' chinese ', ' xi jinping ', ' beijing ', ' shanghai ', ' hong kong ', ' taiwan ', ' yuan ', ' alibaba ', ' byd '], code: 'CN' },
// Rusia
{ keywords: [' russia ', ' russian ', ' putin ', ' moscow ', ' kremlin ', ' ruble '], code: 'RU' },
// India
{ keywords: [' india ', ' indian ', ' modi ', ' mumbai ', ' delhi ', ' rupee ', ' bjp '], code: 'IN' },
// Brasil
{ keywords: [' brazil ', ' brazilian ', ' brasil ', ' lula ', ' bolsonaro ', ' real '], code: 'BR' },
// Japón
{ keywords: [' japan ', ' japanese ', ' tokyo ', ' boj ', ' yen ', ' nikkei ', ' suzuki '], code: 'JP' },
// Canadá
{ keywords: [' canada ', ' canadian ', ' trudeau ', ' toronto ', ' loonie '], code: 'CA' },
// Ucrania
{ keywords: [' ukraine ', ' ukrainian ', ' kyiv ', ' zelensky '], code: 'UA' },
// Israel
{ keywords: [' israel ', ' israeli ', ' gaza ', ' netanyahu ', ' palestine ', ' palestinian ', ' hamas '], code: 'IL' },
// Irán
{ keywords: [' iran ', ' iranian ', ' tehran ', ' ayatollah '], code: 'IR' },
// Corea
{ keywords: [' korea ', ' north korea ', ' south korea ', ' korean ', ' seoul ', ' kim jong '], code: 'KR' },
// Australia
{ keywords: [' australia ', ' australian ', ' sydney ', ' rba ', ' aud '], code: 'AU' },
// México
{ keywords: [' mexico ', ' mexican ', ' peso ', ' amlo ', ' mexican president '], code: 'MX' },
// Turquía
{ keywords: [' turkey ', ' turkish ', ' erdogan ', ' lira ', ' istanbul '], code: 'TR' },
// Arabia Saudita
{ keywords: [' saudi ', ' saudi arabia ', ' riyadh ', ' aramco '], code: 'SA' },
// Sudáfrica
{ keywords: [' south africa ', ' south african ', ' johannesburg ', ' rand '], code: 'ZA' },
// Argentina
{ keywords: [' argentina ', ' argentinian ', ' milei ', ' buenos aires ', ' peso argentino '], code: 'AR' },
// Uzbekistán
{ keywords: [' uzbekistan ', ' uzbek '], code: 'UZ' },
// Nueva Zelanda
{ keywords: [' new zealand ', ' kiwi '], code: 'NZ' },
// Países Bajos
{ keywords: [' netherlands ', ' dutch ', ' amsterdam ', ' rutte '], code: 'NL' },
// Polonia
{ keywords: [' poland ', ' polish ', ' warsaw ', ' duda '], code: 'PL' },
// Suiza
{ keywords: [' switzerland ', ' swiss ', ' zurich ', ' geneva ', ' franc '], code: 'CH' },
// Suecia
{ keywords: [' sweden ', ' swedish ', ' stockholm '], code: 'SE' },
// Noruega
{ keywords: [' norway ', ' norwegian ', ' oslo '], code: 'NO' },
// Dinamarca
{ keywords: [' denmark ', ' danish ', ' copenhagen '], code: 'DK' },
// Finlandia
{ keywords: [' finland ', ' finnish ', ' helsinki '], code: 'FI' },
// Grecia
{ keywords: [' greece ', ' greek ', ' athens '], code: 'GR' },
// Portugal
{ keywords: [' portugal ', ' portuguese ', ' lisbon '], code: 'PT' },
// Bélgica
{ keywords: [' belgium ', ' belgian ', ' brussels '], code: 'BE' },
// Austria
{ keywords: [' austria ', ' austrian ', ' vienna '], code: 'AT' },
// Irlanda
{ keywords: [' ireland ', ' irish ', ' dublin '], code: 'IE' },
// Pakistán
{ keywords: [' pakistan ', ' pakistani ', ' islamabad '], code: 'PK' },
// Bangladés
{ keywords: [' bangladesh ', ' bangladeshi ', ' dhaka '], code: 'BD' },
// Indonesia
{ keywords: [' indonesia ', ' indonesian ', ' jakarta '], code: 'ID' },
// Filipinas
{ keywords: [' philippines ', ' filipino ', ' manila '], code: 'PH' },
// Vietnam
{ keywords: [' vietnam ', ' vietnamese ', ' hanoi '], code: 'VN' },
// Tailandia
{ keywords: [' thailand ', ' thai ', ' bangkok '], code: 'TH' },
// Malasia
{ keywords: [' malaysia ', ' malaysian ', ' kuala lumpur '], code: 'MY' },
// Singapur
{ keywords: [' singapore ', ' singaporean '], code: 'SG' },
// Colombia
{ keywords: [' colombia ', ' colombian ', ' bogotá '], code: 'CO' },
// Chile
{ keywords: [' chile ', ' chilean ', ' santiago '], code: 'CL' },
// Perú
{ keywords: [' peru ', ' peruvian ', ' lima '], code: 'PE' },
// Venezuela
{ keywords: [' venezuela ', ' venezuelan ', ' caracas ', ' maduro '], code: 'VE' },
// Ecuador
{ keywords: [' ecuador ', ' ecuadorian ', ' quito '], code: 'EC' },
// Nigeria
{ keywords: [' nigeria ', ' nigerian ', ' lagos ', ' abuja '], code: 'NG' },
// Egipto
{ keywords: [' egypt ', ' egyptian ', ' cairo '], code: 'EG' },
// Etiopía
{ keywords: [' ethiopia ', ' ethiopian ', ' addis ababa '], code: 'ET' },
// Kenia
{ keywords: [' kenya ', ' kenyan ', ' nairobi '], code: 'KE' },
// Cuba
{ keywords: [' cuba ', ' cuban ', ' havana '], code: 'CU' },
// República Dominicana
{ keywords: [' dominican republic ', ' dominican '], code: 'DO' },
// Curazao
{ keywords: [' curaçao ', ' curacao '], code: 'CW' },
];
for (const rule of rules) {
if (rule.keywords.some((kw) => text.includes(kw))) {
return rule.code;
}
}
return null;
}
/**
* Determina si una pregunta de mercado es analizable por la IA con edge plausible.
*
* Excluimos:
* - "Will X say WORD by date" (sin base de datos predictiva)
* - "Mentions" / "first to say" markets
* - Mercados de views/views-counts de YouTubers
* - "Before GTA VI" type meme markets
*
* Mantenemos:
* - Precios objetivo (Bitcoin $X by Y)
* - Decisiones Fed/ECB/BOE
* - Eventos geopoliticos concretos (acuerdos, sanciones, elecciones)
* - Cifras macro (CPI, GDP, employment)
*/
function isAnalyzable(question, category) {
const q = question.toLowerCase();
// Patrones de mercados NO analizables (memes, predicciones-de-palabras, views)
const blacklist = [
/\bsay\b.*\?$/i, // "Will Trump say X?"
/how many.*tweet/i, // tweets count
/\bmentions?\b/i,
/\b# of tweets\b/i,
/views? on day/i, // MrBeast views
/views? in /i,
/before gta/i, // GTA VI memes
/jesus christ return/i,
/alien/i,
/\bpoll(ed|ing) (above|below)/i, // detailed polling minutiae
/first to/i, // "first to reach X"
/wear (a|the)/i, // clothing predictions
/shave/i,
/grammy|oscar|emmy/i, // award shows (subjective)
];
if (blacklist.some((re) => re.test(q))) return false;
// Categorias inherentemente no analizables sin modelo dedicado
if (category === 'deportes') return false;
if (category === 'entretenimiento') return false;
return true;
}
export function mapMarket(raw, { eventTitle = '', tagCategory = null } = {}) {
const { yesPrice, noPrice } = parsePrices(raw.outcomePrices);
const evTitle = eventTitle || raw.events?.[0]?.title || '';
const question = raw.question || '';
// Prioriza categoria del tag (proviene de Polymarket directamente)
// sobre el matcher por keywords, que es ruidoso.
const category = tagCategory || inferCategory(question, evTitle);
const spread = raw.spread != null ? parseFloat(raw.spread) : null;
const bestBid = raw.bestBid != null ? parseFloat(raw.bestBid) : null;
const bestAsk = raw.bestAsk != null ? parseFloat(raw.bestAsk) : null;
let clobTokenId = null;
try {
const tokens = JSON.parse(raw.clobTokenIds || '[]');
clobTokenId = tokens[0] ?? null;
} catch { /* ignorar */ }
return {
id: String(raw.id),
question,
category,
countryCode: inferCountryCode(question, evTitle),
yesPrice,
noPrice,
volumeEur: raw.volume != null ? parseFloat(raw.volume) * USD_TO_EUR : null,
liquidityEur: raw.liquidity != null ? parseFloat(raw.liquidity) * USD_TO_EUR : null,
spread,
bestBid,
bestAsk,
clobTokenId,
analyzable: isAnalyzable(question, category),
status: mapStatus(raw),
closesAt: raw.endDate ? new Date(raw.endDate) : null,
lastSynced: new Date(),
};
}
/**
* Obtiene eventos de Polymarket filtrados por tag_id ordenados por volumen 24h.
* Devuelve los markets aplanados de cada evento.
*/
async function fetchEventsByTag(tagId, limit) {
const url = `${GAMMA_EVENTS_URL}?active=true&closed=false&archived=false&tag_id=${tagId}&order=volume24hr&ascending=false&limit=${limit}`;
try {
const events = await httpGet(url);
if (!Array.isArray(events)) return [];
const flatMarkets = [];
for (const ev of events) {
const evTitle = ev.title || '';
for (const m of ev.markets || []) {
// Filtra mercados no activos a nivel de market
if (m.closed || m.archived || m.active === false) continue;
flatMarkets.push({ raw: m, eventTitle: evTitle });
}
}
return flatMarkets;
} catch (err) {
logger.warn({ err: err.message, tagId }, 'fetchEventsByTag failed');
return [];
}
}
/**
* Obtiene mercados activos de Polymarket de forma DIVERSIFICADA por tag.
*
* Problema previo: el endpoint /markets ignora tag_id y devuelve siempre la
* misma "home feed" de Polymarket (dominada por US politics + World Cup).
*
* Solucion: iteramos sobre el endpoint /events (que SI respeta tag_id) con
* una lista curada de tags de alto valor accionable (cripto, fed, tech,
* geopolitica, energia, etc) y aplanamos los mercados de cada evento.
*
* @returns {Promise<Market[]>} Mercados unicos con categoria asignada por tag.
*/
export async function fetchActiveMarkets() {
const results = await Promise.all(
TAG_SLICES.map((slice) => fetchEventsByTag(slice.tagId, slice.limit)),
);
// Dedup por id, preservando la categoria de la PRIMERA aparicion
// (los slices estan ordenados por prioridad de alpha financiero).
const seen = new Map(); // id → { raw, eventTitle, tagCategory }
results.forEach((bucket, i) => {
const tagCategory = TAG_SLICES[i].category;
for (const { raw, eventTitle } of bucket) {
const id = String(raw.id);
if (seen.has(id)) continue;
seen.set(id, { raw, eventTitle, tagCategory });
}
});
const mapped = Array.from(seen.values()).map(({ raw, eventTitle, tagCategory }) =>
mapMarket(raw, { eventTitle, tagCategory }),
);
// Filtro de calidad: liquidez minima 5000 EUR para excluir orderbooks muertos
const filtered = mapped.filter((m) => (m.liquidityEur ?? 0) >= 5000 || (m.volumeEur ?? 0) >= 50000);
logger.info({
totalFetched: mapped.length,
afterLiquidityFilter: filtered.length,
perCategory: filtered.reduce((acc, m) => { acc[m.category] = (acc[m.category]||0)+1; return acc; }, {}),
}, 'polymarket diversified fetch complete');
return filtered;
}
|