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<!DOCTYPE html>
<!--
Vendored + adapted into posterly from ARIS (Auto-claude-code-research-in-sleep),
skill paper-poster-html. Origin: https://github.com/wanshuiyin/Auto-claude-code-research-in-sleep
Upstream tokenization: MIT (c) 2026 wanshuiyin -- ../LICENSES/aris-MIT.txt
This is the tokenized form of posterly's own neutral template; the class names and
content are posterly's own (c) 2026 Ruishuo Chen. As an adapted derivative this file
ships as part of posterly under AGPL-3.0. See ../NOTICE.md.
-->
<!--
============================================================
TEMPLATE: landscape_4col (ARIS fork)
CANVAS: 60in × 36in landscape (ICML / NeurIPS / generic landscape)
LAYOUT: header → optional banner → 4 body columns → optional takeaways → footer
USE WHEN: standard ML conference poster with 3-5 content cards per column,
mix of figures + equations + small tables.
HOW TO USE:
1. Copy this file to your working directory as `poster.html`.
2. Edit the DESIGN TOKENS in `:root` to your lab/venue colors.
3. Replace TODO content placeholders (search for "TODO").
4. Run `python tools/run_gates.py poster.html` (the default driver: preflight -> style -> measure -> polish) to align columns and check style/structure.
5. Run `python tools/render_preview.py poster.html` to produce the PDF.
NOTE: as shipped, this scaffold passes `preflight` (structure) but is
EXPECTED to FAIL `measure`/`polish` -- figures are commented out and copy
is TODO stubs, so columns only fill the top of the canvas. Those two gates
judge a FILLED poster; balance them once you've added real content. See
templates/README.md ("Scaffolds, not finished posters").
MEASURE ROLES: every layout-critical element carries `data-measure-role`.
Generic measurement scripts depend on these — do not remove.
CANVAS RETARGETING: to print at another size, change the canvas in exactly
TWO places that must stay in sync -- the `@page { size: ... }` rule and the
`.poster { width/height }` (also the `@media print .poster { width/height }`).
Example: ICLR 2026 main conference uses 185cm 90cm landscape (official print
service spec) -- set @page to `185cm 90cm`, width to `1850 * var(--u)` and
height to `900 * var(--u)` (and the print-override .poster to `185cm`/`90cm`).
Adapted from posterly (MIT, © 2026 Ruishuo Chen) — see LICENSES/ & NOTICE.md;
ARIS modifications: flat de-gradient, --fs token scale, zero-inline-style
utilities, data-source/data-color-exempt contracts.
============================================================
-->
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>POSTER TITLE — Venue Year</title>
<!-- MathJax v3 for inline equations. CDN by default; to go offline,
download a MathJax v3 release into ./mathjax/ and change the <script>
`src` below to "mathjax/es5/tex-svg.js". -->
<script>
window.MathJax = {
tex: {
inlineMath: [['$', '$'], ['\\(', '\\)']],
displayMath: [['$$', '$$'], ['\\[', '\\]']],
packages: {'[+]': ['ams']}
},
svg: { fontCache: 'global' }
};
</script>
<script id="MathJax-script" async src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/mathjax@3/es5/tex-svg.js"></script>
<style>
/* =========================================================
CANVAS — 60" × 36" landscape
========================================================= */
@page { size: 60in 36in; margin: 0; }
:root {
/* ===== DESIGN TOKENS ===== */
/* Primary accent (header underline, card-highlight bar, section nums, .keyword) */
--accent: #2D5F8B;
--accent-deep: #1F4566;
--accent-light: #E8F1F8;
--accent-soft: #D7E5F0;
/* Secondary accent for "ours / best" emphasis (table .ours row, "★" callouts) */
--gold: #C9A24A;
--gold-soft: #FFF7E0;
/* Text */
--text-primary: #1A1A1A;
--text-secondary: #555555;
--text-muted: #888888;
/* Backgrounds */
--bg-page: #F6F2F0;
--bg-card: #FFFFFF;
--bg-card-tint: #FAFAFB;
--bg-emphasis: var(--accent-light);
/* Borders */
--border-soft: #D8D8D8;
--border-strong: var(--accent);
/* Screen-only dark mat behind the poster (the off-canvas viewport
background). Print resets html/body to white, so this never reaches
paper; kept as a token so no color literal lives outside this block. */
--bg-viewport: #2B2B2B;
/* Base unit. Print: 1mm; screen preview: 1.6px (~3.78px = 1mm at 96dpi). */
--u: 1.6px;
/* Font-size scale (9 archetypes). Every `font-size` in this template
references one of these. `calc(var(--fs-N) * k)` is permitted ONLY for
a COMPONENTS.md-defined variant (e.g. `.eqn--large`). */
--fs-1: calc(9 * var(--u)); /* micro label */
--fs-2: calc(10 * var(--u)); /* small caption */
--fs-3: calc(11 * var(--u)); /* caption / table */
--fs-4: calc(12 * var(--u)); /* body text */
--fs-5: calc(13 * var(--u)); /* equation / emphasis */
--fs-6: calc(15 * var(--u)); /* subtitle */
--fs-7: calc(16 * var(--u)); /* section title */
--fs-8: calc(22 * var(--u)); /* banner number */
--fs-9: calc(32 * var(--u)); /* main title */
/* Fonts. Override at :root if your venue mandates a specific family. */
--font-serif: "Charter", "Source Serif Pro", "Georgia", serif;
--font-sans: "Inter", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif;
/* Shadows & watermark ink — tokenized so rules 1/3 stay literal-free
(the faint radial page tint is the ONE allowed literal outside this
block; rule 5 validates it WHEN ENABLED -- the style gate ships with rules 4-5 off). */
--shadow-screen: 0 0 60px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);
--shadow-card: 0 calc(2 * var(--u)) calc(6 * var(--u)) rgba(45, 95, 139, 0.05);
--ornament-ink: rgba(45, 95, 139, 0.06);
/* ===== END DESIGN TOKENS ===== */
}
/* =========================================================
RESET + BASE
========================================================= */
* { box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0; padding: 0; }
html, body {
background: var(--bg-viewport);
font-family: var(--font-serif);
color: var(--text-primary);
-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;
}
/* =========================================================
UTILITY CLASSES — replace inline `style=` in the body markup.
The template (and any finished poster) must carry ZERO `style=`
attributes. Use these classes instead. Two documented exceptions
exist ONLY as examples and may appear in comments, never live:
- a logo/seal SVG flagged data-color-exempt="logo"
- a paper figure `<img ... data-source="paper" style="width: NN%">`
(AR width tweak; prefer the .w-NN classes below where possible)
========================================================= */
/* Poster container — exact print dimensions; data-measure-role="poster" so poster_check.py
can verify the canvas size. */
.poster {
width: calc(1524 * var(--u));
height: calc(914 * var(--u));
background: var(--bg-page);
/* Page tint kept (radial only, all color stops alpha <= 0.06 per the
de-gradient policy: linear-gradient is banned, this low-alpha radial
wash is the single allowed exception). */
background-image:
radial-gradient(ellipse at top left, rgba(45, 95, 139, 0.06), transparent 40%),
radial-gradient(ellipse at bottom right, rgba(201, 162, 74, 0.05), transparent 50%);
margin: 20px auto;
padding: calc(10 * var(--u)) calc(14 * var(--u));
display: grid;
grid-template-rows: auto auto 1fr auto auto; /* header | banner | body | takeaways | footer */
gap: calc(6 * var(--u));
box-shadow: var(--shadow-screen);
position: relative;
overflow: hidden;
}
/* Decorative top bar — flat solid accent (de-gradient). */
.poster::before {
content: "";
position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; right: 0;
height: calc(8 * var(--u));
background: var(--accent);
}
/* =========================================================
HEADER
========================================================= */
.header {
display: grid;
grid-template-columns: 1fr minmax(50%, auto) 1fr; /* equal side tracks (1fr) -> the title track is centred on the poster, not just between the side blocks; the centre track is floored at 50% so a one-line title still fills it (else a short title measures narrow and trips a false HEADER/TITLE-SQUEEZED). Best-effort: a side block wide enough to clamp its 1fr track can still pull the title off-centre. */
align-items: center;
gap: calc(16 * var(--u));
padding: calc(2 * var(--u)) calc(4 * var(--u)) calc(5 * var(--u));
border-bottom: calc(2 * var(--u)) solid var(--accent);
}
.venue-badge {
justify-self: start; /* anchor to the far-left edge so the centre track stays centred */
display: flex; flex-direction: column;
align-items: center; justify-content: center;
min-width: calc(95 * var(--u));
text-align: center;
border-right: calc(1 * var(--u)) solid var(--border-soft);
padding-right: calc(12 * var(--u));
}
.venue-badge .vb-venue {
font-family: var(--font-sans);
font-weight: 800;
font-size: var(--fs-9);
color: var(--accent-deep);
line-height: 1;
letter-spacing: -0.5px;
}
.venue-badge .vb-year {
font-family: var(--font-sans);
font-size: var(--fs-5);
color: var(--text-secondary);
margin-top: calc(3 * var(--u));
letter-spacing: 1.2px;
}
.venue-badge .vb-tag {
font-family: var(--font-sans);
font-size: var(--fs-2);
color: var(--accent);
font-weight: 700;
margin-top: calc(2 * var(--u));
letter-spacing: 1.2px;
}
.title-block { text-align: center; min-width: 0; }
.title {
font-family: var(--font-sans);
font-weight: 800;
font-size: var(--fs-9);
line-height: 1.05;
color: var(--accent-deep);
letter-spacing: -0.5px;
}
.title .accent { color: var(--gold); }
.subtitle {
font-family: var(--font-sans);
font-weight: 500;
font-size: var(--fs-6);
color: var(--text-secondary);
margin-top: calc(2 * var(--u));
font-style: italic;
}
.authors-line {
font-family: var(--font-sans);
font-size: var(--fs-4);
color: var(--accent);
font-weight: 600;
margin-top: calc(3 * var(--u));
}
.authors-line .author { margin: 0 calc(4 * var(--u)); }
.authors-line sup { font-size: 0.7em; color: var(--accent); }
.authors-line .aff {
color: var(--text-secondary);
font-weight: 400;
display: block;
margin-top: calc(2 * var(--u));
font-size: var(--fs-4);
}
.right-block {
justify-self: end; /* keep logo+QR in the far-right corner */
display: flex; align-items: center;
gap: calc(10 * var(--u));
}
.qr-block { display: flex; flex-direction: column; align-items: center; gap: calc(2 * var(--u)); }
.qr-block img {
width: calc(85 * var(--u));
height: calc(85 * var(--u));
border: calc(2 * var(--u)) solid var(--accent);
border-radius: calc(4 * var(--u));
background: white;
padding: calc(2 * var(--u));
}
.qr-label {
font-family: var(--font-sans);
font-size: var(--fs-3);
color: var(--accent);
font-weight: 600;
}
/* Optional logo slot — drop your lab logo here. Keep its rendered height
close to the QR (~85u) so the header doesn't grow disproportionately.
A raster logo needs no exemption. An inline-SVG logo with brand colors
must carry data-color-exempt="logo" so style_check skips its fills, e.g.:
<svg data-color-exempt="logo" ...> ... </svg> */
.logo-slot img { height: calc(85 * var(--u)); width: auto; max-width: calc(360 * var(--u)); object-fit: contain; display: block; }
/* Logo size classes on .logo-slot -- pick from the file's aspect ratio (SKILL.md Gate E).
tall/square sit at the QR-matched slot height; wide is intentionally shorter (~68% of the
QR) and width-capped so a long wordmark doesn't out-mass the title. Do NOT combine these
with logo-stack (that row is width-normalized, below). */
.logo-slot.logo-tall img,
.logo-slot.logo-square img { height: calc(85 * var(--u)); }
.logo-slot.logo-wide img { height: calc(58 * var(--u)); max-width: calc(300 * var(--u)); }
/* Logo chip: a solid backing that keeps a transparent / edge-white logo legible on a
colored/dark header (white chip) or a light header (.logo-chip-dark); the padding + radius
fold a stray white box into a deliberate rounded tile (SKILL.md Gate E, Background). */
.logo-chip {
display: inline-flex; align-items: center; justify-content: center;
background: var(--bg-card); border-radius: calc(3 * var(--u));
padding: calc(3 * var(--u)) calc(5 * var(--u));
}
.logo-chip.logo-chip-dark { background: var(--text-primary); }
/* logo-row: institution logos in the header right block (REAL logos the
user provided — never fabricate a seal). Each img MUST carry
data-color-exempt="logo"; height pairs with the QR. */
.logo-row { display: flex; align-items: center; gap: calc(5 * var(--u)); }
.logo-row img { height: calc(68 * var(--u)); width: auto; display: block; }
/* --boxed variant: each logo in a labeled tile (logo + institution name) —
more presence at poster distance; white tile + soft border, no new hues. */
.logo-row .lr-item {
display: flex; flex-direction: column; align-items: center;
gap: calc(2 * var(--u));
background: var(--bg-card);
border: 1px solid var(--border-soft);
border-radius: calc(3 * var(--u));
padding: calc(4 * var(--u)) calc(6 * var(--u));
}
.logo-row .lr-item img { height: calc(58 * var(--u)); }
.logo-row .lr-label {
font-family: var(--font-sans); font-weight: 600; font-size: var(--fs-1);
color: var(--text-secondary); text-align: center; line-height: 1.15;
}
/* logo-stack variant: WIDE WORDMARKS (AR >= ~2) normalized to EQUAL WIDTH
and stacked vertically, left-aligned. Use when two wide wordmarks of
different aspect ratio read unbalanced height-matched in a row (equal
width lets the less-wide mark grow taller and aligns a clean block).
NOT for a square seal or tall mark (equal width blows it up — keep those
height-matched). Do NOT also apply the logo-wide/tall/square classes. */
.logo-row.logo-stack { flex-direction: column; align-items: flex-start; gap: calc(8 * var(--u)); }
.logo-row.logo-stack img { width: calc(170 * var(--u)); height: auto; }
/* venue badge may carry the official venue logo above its text line */
.venue-badge img { height: calc(62 * var(--u)); width: auto; display: block; margin: 0 auto calc(2 * var(--u)); }
.venue-badge .vb-title { font-family: var(--font-sans); font-weight: 800; font-size: var(--fs-5); color: var(--accent-deep); letter-spacing: 0.5px; }
/* =========================================================
OPTIONAL FRAMEWORK BANNER (delete this whole section if you don't need it)
========================================================= */
.framework-banner {
display: flex;
align-items: center;
gap: calc(16 * var(--u));
/* Flat solid emphasis fill (de-gradient). */
background: var(--bg-emphasis);
border: calc(1 * var(--u)) solid var(--border-soft);
border-left: calc(6 * var(--u)) solid var(--accent);
border-radius: calc(6 * var(--u));
padding: calc(6 * var(--u)) calc(14 * var(--u));
}
.framework-banner img { height: calc(120 * var(--u)); width: auto; display: block; }
.framework-banner .banner-stats {
flex: 1;
display: grid;
grid-template-columns: 1fr 1fr;
gap: calc(6 * var(--u));
}
.framework-banner .bs-item {
background: white;
border: calc(1 * var(--u)) solid var(--border-soft);
border-left: calc(3 * var(--u)) solid var(--accent);
border-radius: calc(3 * var(--u));
padding: calc(2 * var(--u)) calc(8 * var(--u));
text-align: center;
}
.framework-banner .bs-num {
font-family: var(--font-sans);
font-weight: 800;
font-size: var(--fs-8);
color: var(--accent);
line-height: 1;
}
.framework-banner .bs-label {
font-family: var(--font-sans);
font-size: var(--fs-3);
color: var(--text-secondary);
margin-top: calc(2 * var(--u));
line-height: 1.2;
}
.framework-banner .fb-text {
flex: 1.6;
font-family: var(--font-serif);
font-size: var(--fs-6);
line-height: 1.5;
text-wrap: pretty; /* prose: fill each line, protect last-line orphan. NOT balance — on multi-sentence prose balance shortens+hyphenates line 1 (crammed-left, gap-right). */
text-align: center;
}
.framework-banner .fb-text strong { color: var(--accent-deep); }
.framework-banner .fb-label {
display: inline-block;
background: var(--accent);
color: white;
font-family: var(--font-sans);
font-size: var(--fs-5);
font-weight: 700;
padding: calc(2 * var(--u)) calc(8 * var(--u));
border-radius: calc(4 * var(--u));
text-transform: uppercase;
letter-spacing: 1px;
vertical-align: middle;
line-height: 1;
position: relative;
top: calc(-1 * var(--u));
}
/* Method-overview figure for the banner (banner-figure component,
catalogued in COMPONENTS.md). Usually CAPTIONLESS -- the banner text
block beside it is the figure's explanation. width:min-content collapses
the slot to the IMAGE (a captionless figure's slot IS the image); if a
short caption is used it wraps at the image box and can NEVER set the
flex-item width; margin-inline centres a block image (text-align does
not); overflow-wrap guards a long unbreakable token. Do NOT hand-roll a
.fb-fig wrapper or a bare <img class="w-100"> here. */
.framework-banner .banner-figure {
flex: 0 0 auto;
width: min-content;
margin: 0;
text-align: center;
}
.framework-banner .banner-figure img {
height: calc(120 * var(--u));
width: auto;
display: block;
margin-inline: auto;
}
.framework-banner .banner-figure figcaption {
width: 100%;
margin-top: calc(2 * var(--u));
font-family: var(--font-sans);
font-size: var(--fs-2);
line-height: 1.2;
color: var(--text-secondary);
text-align: center;
text-wrap: pretty;
overflow-wrap: anywhere;
}
.framework-banner .banner-figure figcaption strong { color: var(--accent-deep); }
/* =========================================================
BODY: 4 columns, variable-width hint via fr values
========================================================= */
.body-grid {
display: grid;
grid-template-columns: 1fr 1.05fr 1.05fr 1fr;
gap: calc(10 * var(--u));
/* No overflow:hidden here — it would clip card shadows (pitfall #6).
.poster already clips at the page boundary; min-height:0 is the
grid-blowout guard. */
min-height: 0;
}
.column {
display: flex; flex-direction: column;
gap: calc(6 * var(--u));
min-height: 0;
height: 100%;
padding-bottom: calc(4 * var(--u)); /* shadow breathing room above takeaways */
}
/* =========================================================
CARDS
========================================================= */
.card {
background: var(--bg-card);
border-radius: calc(5 * var(--u));
padding: calc(4 * var(--u)) calc(9 * var(--u));
border: calc(1 * var(--u)) solid var(--border-soft);
box-shadow: var(--shadow-card);
position: relative;
}
.card.tinted { background: var(--bg-card-tint); }
.card.card--compact { padding: calc(3 * var(--u)) calc(6 * var(--u)); } /* predefined variant: tighter padding (fix (f)) */
.card.highlight {
border-left: calc(6 * var(--u)) solid var(--accent);
/* Flat emphasis tint (de-gradient). */
background: var(--bg-emphasis);
}
.section-title {
font-family: var(--font-sans);
font-weight: 700;
font-size: var(--fs-7);
color: var(--accent-deep);
margin-bottom: calc(3 * var(--u));
display: flex; align-items: center;
gap: calc(5 * var(--u));
}
/* Title text + any ★ marker share ONE .st-text span, so the heading wraps as
natural text (hanging indent) instead of flex-wrapping atomic items: the
number badge is never stranded on its own line and the ★ never widows. */
.section-title .st-text { flex: 1; min-width: 0; line-height: 1.18; }
/* Graceful fallback if a title is NOT wrapped in .st-text: float the badge so
bare inline text still wraps beside it rather than dropping below it. */
.section-title:not(:has(.st-text)) { display: block; line-height: 1.18; }
.section-title:not(:has(.st-text)) .num { float: left; margin-right: calc(5 * var(--u)); }
.section-title .num {
display: inline-flex; align-items: center; justify-content: center;
width: calc(22 * var(--u)); height: calc(22 * var(--u));
background: var(--accent); color: white;
border-radius: 50%;
font-size: var(--fs-5); font-weight: 700;
flex-shrink: 0;
}
/* Inline "★ KEY" / "★ Headline" marker beside a section title. */
.section-title .key-mark { color: var(--gold); font-size: var(--fs-3); }
.body-text, .card p, .card li {
font-family: var(--font-serif);
font-size: var(--fs-4);
line-height: 1.3;
color: var(--text-primary);
}
.card ul, .card ol { padding-left: calc(18 * var(--u)); }
.card li { margin-bottom: calc(2 * var(--u)); }
.keyword { color: var(--accent); font-weight: 700; }
.keyword-gold { color: var(--gold); font-weight: 700; }
.highlight-text {
background: var(--bg-emphasis);
padding: 0 calc(3 * var(--u));
border-radius: calc(2 * var(--u));
}
/* Equation block */
.eqn {
background: var(--bg-emphasis);
border-left: calc(3 * var(--u)) solid var(--accent);
padding: calc(4 * var(--u)) calc(10 * var(--u));
margin: calc(4 * var(--u)) 0;
font-size: var(--fs-5);
overflow-x: hidden;
}
/* Predefined variant for a larger / more legible display equation.
`calc(var(--fs-N) * k)` is allowed here because this is a
COMPONENTS.md-registered variant (DESIGN_FINAL §A / §10 f). */
.eqn--large { font-size: calc(var(--fs-5) * 1.25); }
.eqn .label {
display: block;
font-family: var(--font-sans);
font-size: var(--fs-2);
color: var(--accent);
font-weight: 600;
margin-bottom: calc(2 * var(--u));
text-transform: uppercase;
letter-spacing: 1px;
}
/* Callout: solid accent for primary, solid gold for theorems / "★ key" strips */
.callout {
background: var(--accent);
color: white;
padding: calc(5 * var(--u)) calc(10 * var(--u));
border-radius: calc(4 * var(--u));
font-size: var(--fs-4);
margin: calc(4 * var(--u)) 0;
}
.callout strong { color: var(--gold); }
/* Flat solid gold (de-gradient). */
.callout.gold {
background: var(--gold);
color: var(--accent-deep);
}
.callout.gold strong { color: var(--accent-deep); }
/* Figure container */
.figure { margin: calc(4 * var(--u)) 0; text-align: center; }
.figure img:not([class*="w-"]) { width: 100%; }
.figure--wide img { width: 100%; } /* predefined variant: force full card width over any .w-NN (fix (f)) */
.figure img {
border-radius: calc(4 * var(--u));
border: calc(1 * var(--u)) solid var(--border-soft);
background: white;
}
.figure .caption {
font-family: var(--font-sans);
font-size: var(--fs-3);
color: var(--text-secondary);
margin-top: calc(3 * var(--u));
line-height: 1.3;
text-align: left;
}
.figure .caption strong { color: var(--accent-deep); }
/* Float a figure BESIDE text in a TEXT-RICH card: text wraps to its side
and then below it. The clearfix grows the card to contain the float;
mark the <img> data-fig-layout="beside-text" so the AR gates honour the
intentionally small width. Use ONLY when there is enough text to fill the
figure's height -- a text-sparse card should center .figure instead. A
short-text float leaves an L-shaped void below the text, which polish's
FIG/BESIDE-TEXT-VOID flags. */
.fig-wrap::after { content: ""; display: table; clear: both; }
.ff-fig {
float: right;
width: 48%; max-width: 58%; min-width: 38%;
margin: calc(1 * var(--u)) 0 calc(3 * var(--u)) calc(11 * var(--u));
text-align: center;
}
.ff-fig.left {
float: left;
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</head>
<body>
<div class="poster" data-measure-role="poster">
<!-- =========================== HEADER =========================== -->
<header class="header" data-measure-role="header">
<div class="venue-badge">
<div class="vb-venue">ICML</div>
<div class="vb-year">2026</div>
<div class="vb-tag">REPRODUCTION</div>
</div>
<div class="title-block">
<h1 class="title">Conditional Coverage Diagnostics <span class="accent">[A Reproduction]</span></h1>
<div class="subtitle">Excess risk turns conditional coverage into a test of whether any classifier beats the constant target 1 − α.</div>
<div class="authors-line">
<span class="author">Sacha Braun</span> · <span class="author">David Holzmüller</span> ?
<span class="author">Michael I. Jordan</span> · <span class="author">Francis Bach</span>
<span class="aff">Paper 15572 · arXiv 2512.11779 · OpenReview vaApZm6MKM</span>
</div>
</div>
<div class="right-block">
<div class="paper-mark"><strong>ERT</strong><br><span>evidence logbook</span></div>
</div>
</header>
<section class="framework-banner" data-measure-role="banner">
<div class="fb-text"><span class="fb-label">CORE IDEA</span> If conditional coverage is perfect, the Bayes classifier is the constant target. ERT measures excess risk recovered by a held-out classifier, with cross-validation preventing self-scoring and making power estimates reproducible.</div>
<div class="banner-stats">
<div class="bs-item"><div class="bs-num">L1</div><div class="bs-label">sign of deviation</div></div>
<div class="bs-item"><div class="bs-num">L2</div><div class="bs-label">squared deviation</div></div>
<div class="bs-item"><div class="bs-num">KL</div><div class="bs-label">probability divergence</div></div>
<div class="bs-item"><div class="bs-num">k-fold</div><div class="bs-label">out-of-fold guard</div></div>
</div>
</section>
<div class="body-grid" data-measure-role="body">
<div class="column" data-measure-role="column">
<div class="card highlight" data-measure-role="card" data-logbook-target="claim-1-l1-l2-kl-ert-against-constant-target">
<div class="section-title"><span class="num">1</span><span class="st-text">What ERT tests</span></div>
<p class="body-text">Coverage labels are binary: Z = 1 when the prediction set contains Y. The target classifier is fixed at 0.9. A positive excess risk means features explain conditional coverage conditional&nbsp;coverage&nbsp;deviation.</p>
<div class="eqn"><span class="label">risk difference</span><br>ERT = risk(constant 0.9) − risk(held-out h(X))</div>
<div class="callout"><strong>Reproduced:</strong> standard CP was positive; the oracle conditional proxy stayed at zero within finite-sample noise.</div>
<div class="figure"><img src="outputs/figures/synthetic_convergence.png" alt="ERT and CovGap synthetic curves" data-fig-layout="beside-text" class="w-45"><div class="caption">Convergence curves and the 5k hidden-feature comparison come from this run.</div></div>
</div>
<div class="card" data-measure-role="card" data-logbook-target="claim-6-algorithm-1-k-fold-cv">
<div class="section-title"><span class="num">2</span><span class="st-text">Algorithm 1</span></div>
<ol class="algo">
<li>Split coverage labels into five folds.</li>
<li>Fit h on four folds.</li>
<li>Score the held-out fold with the proper loss.</li>
<li>Average fold-weighted excess risk.</li>
</ol>
<div class="keybox"><div class="kb-item"><div class="kb-num">0.039</div><div class="kb-label">CV L1-ERT</div></div><div class="kb-item"><div class="kb-num">0.161</div><div class="kb-label">in-sample</div></div></div>
<div class="figure"><img src="outputs/figures/power_benchmark.png" alt="Classifier power comparison" data-fig-layout="beside-text" class="w-70"><div class="caption">A held-out score keeps classifier power honest, rather than measuring fit.</div></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="column" data-measure-role="column">
<div class="card highlight" data-measure-role="card" data-logbook-target="claim-3-synthetic-sample-efficiency">
<div class="section-title"><span class="num">3</span><span class="st-text">Synthetic convergence</span></div>
<p class="body-text fs-3 text-secondary">Hidden-feature proxy; 5,000 test points. ERT sees the deviation that a partition on the nuisance feature misses.</p>
<div class="figure"><img src="outputs/figures/synthetic_convergence.png" alt="Synthetic convergence curves" class="w-95"><div class="caption">ERT approaches the conditional target faster; CovGap changes with the chosen&nbsp;feature-space&nbsp;partition.</div></div>
<div class="keybox"><div class="kb-item"><div class="kb-num">0.0948</div><div class="kb-label">L1-ERT</div></div><div class="kb-item"><div class="kb-num">0.0468</div><div class="kb-label">CovGap</div></div><div class="kb-item"><div class="kb-num">5k</div><div class="kb-label">points</div></div></div>
</div>
<div class="card" data-measure-role="card" data-logbook-target="claim-4-ell-plus-ell-minus-separation">
<div class="section-title"><span class="num">4</span><span class="st-text">Direction matters</span></div>
<p class="body-text">The plus/minus losses clip predictions on opposite sides of the target, separating over-coverage from under-coverage.</p>
<table class="result-table"><thead><tr><th class="method">scenario</th><th>ell-plus</th><th>ell-minus</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr class="ours"><td class="method">over-only</td><td class="best">0.0496</td><td>−0.0017</td></tr>
<tr><td class="method">under-only</td><td>−0.0103</td><td class="best">0.0429</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="figure"><img src="outputs/figures/classification_ert.png" alt="Directional KL components" data-fig-layout="beside-text" class="w-60"><div class="caption">The same plus/minus idea carries into KL diagnostics.</div></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="column" data-measure-role="column">
<div class="card highlight" data-measure-role="card" data-logbook-target="claim-2-lightgbm-relative-power">
<div class="section-title"><span class="num">5</span><span class="st-text">Classifier power</span></div>
<p class="body-text fs-3 text-secondary">Reference: paper/challenge reports 68.4% LightGBM versus 38.3% PartitionWise. The local truth-referenced proxy preserves the paper's LightGBM-over-PartitionWise&nbsp;ordering.</p>
<div class="figure"><img src="outputs/figures/power_benchmark.png" alt="LightGBM and PartitionWise power" class="w-80"><div class="caption">Local CPU proxy; this poster reports direction, while paper-scale figures remain&nbsp;out&nbsp;of&nbsp;scope&nbsp;for&nbsp;replication.</div></div>
<div class="callout gold"><strong>Why it matters.</strong> PartitionWise is fast, but rigid partitions can miss smooth interactions and high-dimensional structure.</div>
</div>
<div class="card" data-measure-role="card" data-logbook-target="claim-5-classification-kl-plus-kl-minus">
<div class="section-title"><span class="num">6</span><span class="st-text">Classification methods</span></div>
<p class="body-text">Digits proxy: likelihood and cumulative-likelihood rules produce distinct&nbsp;conformal&nbsp;sets.</p>
<div class="figure"><img src="outputs/figures/classification_ert.png" alt="Classification KL plus and minus" class="w-75"><div class="caption">KL-plus / KL-minus diverge across conformal methods.</div></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="column" data-measure-role="column">
<div class="card highlight" data-measure-role="card" data-logbook-target="conclusion">
<div class="section-title"><span class="num">7</span><span class="st-text">Evidence ledger</span></div>
<table class="result-table"><thead><tr><th class="method">claim</th><th>local result</th><th>verdict</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td class="method">L1/L2/KL</td><td>0.0908 / 0.0084 / 0.0528</td><td class="best">reproduced</td></tr>
<tr><td class="method">sample efficiency</td><td>ERT 0.0948 &gt; CovGap 0.0468</td><td class="best">supported</td></tr>
<tr><td class="method">sign split</td><td>plus → over, minus → under</td><td class="best">reproduced</td></tr>
<tr><td class="method">classification</td><td>KL components diverge</td><td class="best">supported</td></tr>
<tr class="reference"><td class="method">compute</td><td>local only; HF 402</td><td>scoped</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p class="body-text mt-2 fs-3">Bundle: one script, pinned package commit, CSV/JSON outputs, three figures, and the Trackio run cells.</p>
</div>
<div class="card" data-measure-role="card" data-logbook-target="infrastructure-orx-and-hf-jobs">
<div class="section-title"><span class="num">8</span><span class="st-text">Scope &amp; honesty</span></div>
<ul class="fs-3">
<li>Material synthetic and digits classification runs.</li>
<li>CPU, reduced scale, one deterministic seed.</li>
<li>Official covmetrics implementation.</li>
<li>Paper-scale HF GPU runs blocked by HTTP 402.</li>
</ul>
<div class="callout mt-3"><strong>Bottom line:</strong> the mechanism and diagnostics reproduce; full benchmark scale remains unclaimed.</div>
<div class="figure"><img src="outputs/figures/synthetic_convergence.png" alt="Reproduction outputs" data-fig-layout="beside-text" class="w-70"><div class="caption">Every poster number is backed by a logged local artifact.</div></div>
<div class="figure"><img src="outputs/figures/power_benchmark.png" alt="Power artifact" data-fig-layout="beside-text" class="w-55"><div class="caption">Raw data and figures are bundled with the logbook.</div></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<section class="takeaways-strip" data-measure-role="footer-strip">
<div class="ts-title"><span class="num">9</span> Takeaways</div>
<div class="ts-item"><span class="ts-key">Idea.</span><span class="ts-text">Conditional coverage is a prediction problem.</span></div>
<div class="ts-item"><span class="ts-key">Method.</span><span class="ts-text">Proper losses turn excess risk into L1, L2, KL.</span></div>
<div class="ts-item"><span class="ts-key">Result.</span><span class="ts-text">Held-out ERT detects hidden structure.</span></div>
<div class="ts-item"><span class="ts-key">Practical.</span><span class="ts-text">Use k-fold CV; call out scale limits.</span></div>
</section>
<div class="footer" data-measure-role="footer">
<div><strong class="method-name">ERT reproduction</strong> · ICML 2026 · scaled local evidence</div>
<div>Code: <span class="repo">github.com/ElSacho/covmetrics</span> · Paper: <span class="repo">arxiv.org/abs/2512.11779</span></div>
</div>
<div class="ornament">ERT · CONDITIONAL COVERAGE</div>
</div>
</body>
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