metrics.json

{
  "holdout": {
    "xgboost": {
      "mae": 279.39,
      "rmse": 389.85,
      "mape": 12.24,
      "r2": 0.9716
    },
    "naive": {
      "lag_1": {
        "mae": 639.67,
        "rmse": 831.09,
        "mape": 31.24
      },
      "lag_24": {
        "mae": 873.04,
        "rmse": 1406.69,
        "mape": 61.3
      },
      "lag_168": {
        "mae": 270.05,
        "rmse": 418.94,
        "mape": 7.82
      }
    }
  },
  "walk_forward": {
    "xgboost_mae": 384.2,
    "naive_lag_168_mae": 427.32,
    "xgboost_per_fold_mae": [
      600.3,
      402.5,
      399.1,
      252.6,
      266.5
    ],
    "beats_naive_walkforward": true
  },
  "top_features": {
    "lag_1": 0.5144,
    "lag_168": 0.2505,
    "hour": 0.1141,
    "lag_24": 0.0448
  },
  "primary_metric": "walk_forward_mae"
}