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README.md
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license: cc-by-4.0
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---
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license: cc-by-4.0
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task_categories:
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- time-series-forecasting
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- tabular-regression
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tags:
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- air-quality
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- pm25
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- forecasting
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- environment
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- europe
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language:
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- en
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pretty_name: PM2.5 Air Quality Forecasting Models (Europe)
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---
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# PM2.5 Air Quality Forecasting Models
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Pre-trained models for predicting PM2.5 concentrations 1-24 hours ahead across European cities.
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## Model Overview
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These models were trained on European Environment Agency (EEA) air quality data from 2018-2022 and evaluated on 2023-2024 data. They predict PM2.5 at multiple forecast horizons: **1h, 3h, 6h, 12h, and 24h**.
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### Training Data
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- **Countries**: 5 (AT, BE, ES, FI, FR)
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- **Cities**: Wien, Paris, Madrid, Antwerpen, Helsinki
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- **Stations**: 38 monitoring stations
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- **Records**: 1.9M+ hourly observations
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## Available Models
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| Model | Type | File Pattern | Description |
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|-------|------|--------------|-------------|
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| **Linear Regression** | Statistical | `lr_h{horizon}.pkl` | Baseline linear model |
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| **GAM** | Statistical | `gam_h{horizon}.pkl` | Generalized Additive Model |
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| **Random Forest** | ML | `rf_h{horizon}.pkl` | Tuned Random Forest |
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| **XGBoost** | ML | `xgb_h{horizon}.pkl` | Tuned XGBoost |
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| **LightGBM** | ML | `lgb_h{horizon}.pkl` | Tuned LightGBM |
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| **LSTM** | Deep Learning | `lstm_global_h{horizon}.keras` | Basic LSTM (168h lookback) |
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| **LSTM-Residual** | Deep Learning | `lstm_residual_h{horizon}.keras` | Residual connections |
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| **LSTM-Attention** | Deep Learning | `lstm_attention_h{horizon}.keras` | Global attention mechanism |
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| **LSTM-CNN** | Deep Learning | `lstm_cnn_h{horizon}.keras` | Hybrid CNN-LSTM |
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## Performance (1-hour horizon)
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### Protocol A: Full Dataset (606,635 test samples)
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| Model | MAE (µg/m³) | RMSE (µg/m³) | R² |
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|-------|-------------|--------------|-----|
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| Persistence | 1.50 | 2.64 | 0.872 |
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| Linear Regression | 1.49 | 2.51 | 0.885 |
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| LightGBM | 1.44 | 2.45 | 0.890 |
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### Protocol B: Sequence-Eligible Subset (375,906 test samples)
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| Model | MAE (µg/m³) | RMSE (µg/m³) | R² |
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|-------|-------------|--------------|-----|
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| LSTM-Attention | 1.19 | 2.18 | 0.916 |
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*Protocol B uses stations with sufficient sequential data for LSTM (168h+ continuous sequences). See full results in the [GitHub repository](https://github.com/CosuleaBianca/eea-pm25).*
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## Usage
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### Download Models
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```python
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from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download
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# Download a specific model
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model_path = hf_hub_download(
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repo_id="cosuleabianca/eea-pm25-models",
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filename="models_lgb/lgb_h1.pkl"
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)
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# Load with joblib (for sklearn/xgboost/lightgbm models)
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import joblib
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model = joblib.load(model_path)
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```
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### Load Keras Models
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```python
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from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download
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from tensorflow import keras
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model_path = hf_hub_download(
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repo_id="cosuleabianca/eea-pm25-models",
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filename="lstm_attention_models/lstm_attention_h1.keras"
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)
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model = keras.models.load_model(model_path)
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```
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## Input Features
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All models expect the same feature set (81 features total):
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### Pollutant Features
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- **PM2.5**: lag_1h, lag_2h, lag_3h, lag_6h, lag_12h, lag_24h, lag_168h, rolling_mean_3h/6h/12h/24h, rolling_std_3h/6h/12h/24h
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- **NO2**: current, lags (1h-168h), rolling_mean_3h/6h/12h/24h, rolling_std_3h/6h/12h/24h
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- **PM10**: current, lags (1h-168h), rolling_mean_3h/6h/12h/24h, rolling_std_3h/6h/12h/24h
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### Weather Features (Open-Meteo)
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- temperature_2m, relative_humidity_2m, dew_point_2m
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- wind_u, wind_v (east-west and north-south components)
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- precipitation, surface_pressure
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### Temporal Features
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- hour_sin, hour_cos, month_sin, month_cos
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- day_of_week, is_weekend, season
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### Station Metadata
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- Latitude, Longitude, Altitude
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- StationType (background, industrial, traffic)
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- StationArea (rural, suburban, urban)
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## Repository Structure
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```
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├── models_rf/ # Random Forest models
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├── models_lgb/ # LightGBM models
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├── models_gam/ # GAM models
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├── lstm_global_models/ # Basic LSTM
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├── lstm_residual_models/# Residual LSTM
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├── lstm_attention_models/# Attention LSTM
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├── lstm_cnn_models/ # CNN-LSTM hybrid
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└── scalers/ # Per-station scalers (for LSTM)
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```
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## Citation
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If you use these models, please cite:
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```bibtex
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@misc{eea-pm25-forecasting,
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author = {Chisilev Bianca-Iuliana},
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title = {PM2.5 Air Quality Forecasting Models for Europe},
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year = {2025},
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publisher = {Hugging Face},
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url = {https://huggingface.co/cosuleabianca/eea-pm25-models}
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}
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```
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## Links
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- **GitHub Repository**: [Github repository](https://github.com/CosuleaBianca/eea-pm25)
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- **Dataset**: [Dataset](https://huggingface.co/datasets/cosuleabianca/eea-pm25-forecasting)
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## License
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CC BY 4.0 - You are free to share and adapt, with attribution.
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