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12yd

penalty
football
lightgbm
shootout
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12yd
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{
  "model": {
    "name": "model",
    "log_loss": 1.769495061378782,
    "accuracy": 0.25,
    "save_rate": 0.4642857142857143,
    "n_kicks": 28
  },
  "random_baseline": {
    "name": "random",
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    "accuracy": 0.3333333333333333,
    "save_rate": 0.40476190476190477,
    "n_kicks": 28
  },
  "kicker_most_frequent_baseline": {
    "name": "last_side",
    "log_loss": null,
    "accuracy": null,
    "save_rate": 0.39285714285714285,
    "n_kicks": 28
  },
  "actual_keeper_baseline": {
    "name": "actual_keeper",
    "log_loss": null,
    "accuracy": null,
    "save_rate": null,
    "n_kicks": 28
  },
  "n_train": 151,
  "n_holdout": 28,
  "holdout_cutoff_date": "2026-01-01",
  "baseline": {
    "name": "baseline",
    "log_loss": 1.0765762100728204,
    "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855,
    "save_rate": 0.25,
    "n_kicks": 28
  },
  "model_kind": "lightgbm",
  "classes": [
    "L",
    "C",
    "R"
  ],
  "feature_columns": [
    "p_L_5",
    "p_C_5",
    "p_R_5",
    "p_L_10",
    "p_C_10",
    "p_R_10",
    "p_L_20",
    "p_C_20",
    "p_R_20",
    "career_penalty_count",
    "b1_kick_number",
    "pen_score_home",
    "pen_score_away",
    "is_decisive",
    "age",
    "last_side",
    "preferred_foot",
    "position"
  ],
  "params": {
    "lightgbm": {
      "num_leaves": 31,
      "learning_rate": 0.05,
      "n_estimators": 500,
      "min_child_samples": 20
    },
    "logreg": {
      "C": 0.005,
      "class_weight": "balanced"
    }
  }
}