cff-version: 1.2.0
message: "If you use this dataset, please cite it as below."
title: "AFOS · Canada 2025 Electoral Divergence Dataset"
abstract: >-
  Open dataset cross-referencing opinion polls and prediction markets for Canada's
  2025 federal election (House of Commons, 28 April 2025), with explicit poll-versus-market
  divergence rather than a blended average. Polls measure party vote share; the market prices
  the probability of winning the most seats (FPTP plurality). The market swung from ~85%
  Conservative in January to ~80% Liberal in April while vote shares stayed close; the Liberals
  won the most seats. Poll figures compiled deterministically from public pollster releases
  (via the Wikipedia aggregation); market odds from Polymarket.
type: dataset
authors:
  - name: "AFOS Analytics"
    website: "https://afos-analytics.com"
keywords:
  - elections
  - Canada
  - opinion polls
  - prediction markets
  - divergence
  - open data
license: CC-BY-4.0
repository: "https://huggingface.co/datasets/AFOS-Analytics1/canada-2025-electoral-divergence"
url: "https://afos-analytics.com"
version: "2026.06"
date-released: "2026-06-11"