| cff-version: 1.2.0 | |
| message: "If you use this dataset, please cite it as below." | |
| title: "AFOS · Chile 2025 Electoral Divergence Dataset" | |
| abstract: >- | |
| Open dataset cross-referencing opinion polls and prediction markets for Chile's | |
| 2025 presidential election (first round 16 November 2025; runoff 14 December 2025, | |
| Jeannette Jara vs José Antonio Kast), with explicit poll-versus-market divergence | |
| rather than a blended average. Poll figures compiled deterministically from public | |
| pollster releases (via the Wikipedia aggregation); market odds from Polymarket. The | |
| market priced Kast's probability of winning the presidency far above his first-round | |
| vote share — and he won the runoff, illustrating why the spread is the signal. | |
| type: dataset | |
| authors: | |
| - name: "AFOS Analytics" | |
| website: "https://afos-analytics.com" | |
| keywords: | |
| - elections | |
| - Chile | |
| - opinion polls | |
| - prediction markets | |
| - divergence | |
| - Latin America | |
| - open data | |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 | |
| repository: "https://huggingface.co/datasets/AFOS-Analytics1/chile-2025-electoral-divergence" | |
| url: "https://afos-analytics.com" | |
| version: "2026.06" | |
| date-released: "2026-06-11" | |