cff-version: 1.2.0
message: "If you use this dataset, please cite it as below."
title: "AFOS · Germany 2025 Electoral Divergence Dataset"
abstract: >-
  Open dataset cross-referencing opinion polls and prediction markets for Germany's
  2025 federal election (Bundestag, 23 February 2025), with explicit poll-versus-market
  divergence rather than a blended average. Polls measure party vote share; the market
  prices the probability of winning the most seats. The AfD held ~21% of the vote (second
  party) yet only ~3% to win the plurality — vote share is not the same as winning, and
  the spread is the signal. Poll figures compiled deterministically from public pollster
  releases (via the Wikipedia aggregation); market odds from Polymarket.
type: dataset
authors:
  - name: "AFOS Analytics"
    website: "https://afos-analytics.com"
keywords:
  - elections
  - Germany
  - opinion polls
  - prediction markets
  - divergence
  - Europe
  - open data
license: CC-BY-4.0
repository: "https://huggingface.co/datasets/AFOS-Analytics1/germany-2025-electoral-divergence"
url: "https://afos-analytics.com"
version: "2026.06"
date-released: "2026-06-11"