cff-version: 1.2.0
message: "If you use this dataset, please cite it as below."
title: "AFOS · USA 2024 Electoral Divergence Dataset"
abstract: >-
  Open dataset cross-referencing opinion polls, prediction markets and press
  coverage for the 2024 U.S. presidential election (Harris vs Trump), with
  explicit poll-versus-market divergence rather than a blended average — and
  reported honestly, including where the market was wrong. On the eve of the
  vote the electoral-college winner market (US$3.7bn) favored Trump and was
  right, while the popular-vote market favored Harris and erred; the national
  polls were a near-tie. Poll toplines come from FiveThirtyEight's public 2024
  database (via the Internet Archive Wayback snapshot of 4 Nov 2024); market
  odds from Polymarket; press anchors are Wayback-archived.
type: dataset
authors:
  - name: "AFOS Analytics"
    website: "https://afos-analytics.com"
keywords:
  - elections
  - United States
  - prediction markets
  - opinion polls
  - press
  - divergence
  - open data
license: CC-BY-4.0
repository: "https://huggingface.co/datasets/AFOS-Analytics1/usa-2024-electoral-divergence"
url: "https://afos-analytics.com"
version: "2026.06"
date-released: "2026-06-19"