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Publish Irregular multiscale forecasts under unseen time gaps
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from __future__ import annotations
import json
from pathlib import Path
import pandas as pd
import torch
import trackio
from data import irregular_batch
from model import (
LiquidTimeConstantRNN,
MatchedGRU,
MatchedRNN,
parameter_count,
)
from safetensors.torch import save_file
from torch.nn import functional as F
PROJECT_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parent
ARTIFACT_DIR = PROJECT_DIR / "artifacts" / "liquid-time-pocket"
DATA_DIR = PROJECT_DIR / "data"
SEED = 2203
@torch.inference_mode()
def evaluate(model: torch.nn.Module, *, large_gaps: bool) -> dict:
inputs, targets, _ = irregular_batch(
2_000,
128,
SEED + 10_000 + int(large_gaps),
large_gaps=large_gaps,
)
prediction = model(inputs)
error = prediction - targets
return {
"rmse": float(error.square().mean().sqrt()),
"mae": float(error.abs().mean()),
"examples": len(inputs),
"sequence_length": inputs.shape[1],
"delta_time_range": [0.12, 0.40] if large_gaps else [0.02, 0.12],
}
def train_variant(name: str, model: torch.nn.Module) -> tuple[torch.nn.Module, int]:
optimizer = torch.optim.AdamW(model.parameters(), lr=2e-3, weight_decay=1e-5)
best = float("inf")
best_step = 0
best_state = None
for step in range(1, 2_501):
inputs, targets, _ = irregular_batch(
96, 64, SEED + step, large_gaps=False
)
prediction = model(inputs)
loss = F.mse_loss(prediction, targets)
optimizer.zero_grad(set_to_none=True)
loss.backward()
torch.nn.utils.clip_grad_norm_(model.parameters(), 5)
optimizer.step()
if step % 125 == 0:
validation = evaluate(model, large_gaps=False)
trackio.log(
{
"variant": name,
"training_step": step,
"training_mse": float(loss.detach()),
"validation_rmse": validation["rmse"],
}
)
if validation["rmse"] < best:
best = validation["rmse"]
best_step = step
best_state = {
key: value.detach().cpu().clone()
for key, value in model.state_dict().items()
}
assert best_state is not None
model.load_state_dict(best_state)
return model, best_step
def main() -> None:
torch.manual_seed(SEED)
torch.set_num_threads(1)
models = {
"liquid_time_constant": LiquidTimeConstantRNN(),
"matched_gru": MatchedGRU(),
"matched_rnn": MatchedRNN(),
}
assert {parameter_count(model) for model in models.values()} == {1_887}
trackio.init(
project="liquid-time-pocket",
name="irregular-gap-ltc-v1",
config={
"parameters_per_model": 1_887,
"training_steps": 2_500,
"training_delta_time": [0.02, 0.12],
"unseen_delta_time": [0.12, 0.40],
},
)
results = {}
ARTIFACT_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
DATA_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
for name, model in models.items():
model, best_step = train_variant(name, model)
results[name] = {
"parameters": parameter_count(model),
"best_step": best_step,
"normal_gaps": evaluate(model, large_gaps=False),
"unseen_large_gaps": evaluate(model, large_gaps=True),
}
save_file(model.state_dict(), ARTIFACT_DIR / f"{name}.safetensors")
inputs, targets, time = irregular_batch(
100, 128, SEED + 30_000, large_gaps=True
)
frame = {
"task": [],
"time": [],
"target": [],
**{name: [] for name in models},
}
with torch.inference_mode():
predictions = {name: model(inputs) for name, model in models.items()}
for task in range(len(inputs)):
for step in range(inputs.shape[1]):
frame["task"].append(task)
frame["time"].append(float(time[task, step]))
frame["target"].append(float(targets[task, step, 0]))
for name in models:
frame[name].append(float(predictions[name][task, step, 0]))
report = {
"experiment": "Liquid time-constant irregular forecasting",
"learned_time_constants": {
"minimum": float(
(F.softplus(models["liquid_time_constant"].log_time_constant) + 0.03)
.min()
),
"mean": float(
(F.softplus(models["liquid_time_constant"].log_time_constant) + 0.03)
.mean()
),
"maximum": float(
(F.softplus(models["liquid_time_constant"].log_time_constant) + 0.03)
.max()
),
},
"results": results,
}
(ARTIFACT_DIR / "evaluation.json").write_text(
json.dumps(report, indent=2), encoding="utf-8"
)
pd.DataFrame(frame).to_parquet(DATA_DIR / "large_gap_forecasts.parquet", index=False)
trackio.log(
{
f"{name}_large_gap_rmse": result["unseen_large_gaps"]["rmse"]
for name, result in results.items()
}
)
trackio.finish()
print(json.dumps(report, indent=2))
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()