"""Multi-step motif completion horizon experiment.""" from __future__ import annotations import json from collections.abc import Sequence from dataclasses import asdict, dataclass from pathlib import Path from control_generator import sample_degree_matched_controls from motif_completion_experiment import consolidate_motifs from recurrence_topology_experiment import canonical_signature, training_data HORIZONS = ("h1", "h2", "full") @dataclass(frozen=True) class HorizonCase: name: str motif_family: str expected_class: str partial_sequence: tuple[str, ...] candidate_sequence: tuple[str, ...] | None prediction_available: bool predicted_full_suffix: tuple[int, ...] observed_full_suffix: tuple[int, ...] | None accepted_h1: bool accepted_h2: bool accepted_full: bool @dataclass(frozen=True) class ExperimentResult: motifs: dict[str, str] cases: tuple[HorizonCase, ...] metrics: dict[str, float] criteria: dict[str, bool] outcome: str def predicted_suffix(partial_sequence: Sequence[str], motif_family: str) -> tuple[int, ...] | None: motif = consolidate_motifs()[motif_family] partial_trace = canonical_signature(partial_sequence).trace if len(partial_trace) >= len(motif.trace): return None if motif.trace[: len(partial_trace)] != partial_trace: return None return motif.trace[len(partial_trace) :] def observed_suffix( partial_sequence: Sequence[str], candidate_sequence: Sequence[str] ) -> tuple[int, ...] | None: partial_trace = canonical_signature(partial_sequence).trace candidate_trace = canonical_signature(candidate_sequence).trace if len(candidate_trace) <= len(partial_trace): return None if candidate_trace[: len(partial_trace)] != partial_trace: return None return candidate_trace[len(partial_trace) :] def accepted_at_horizon( predicted: tuple[int, ...], observed: tuple[int, ...] | None, horizon: str ) -> bool: if observed is None: return False if horizon == "h1": length = 1 elif horizon == "h2": length = min(2, len(predicted)) elif horizon == "full": length = len(predicted) else: raise ValueError(horizon) return len(observed) >= length and observed[:length] == predicted[:length] def evaluate_case( name: str, motif_family: str, partial_sequence: Sequence[str], candidate_sequence: Sequence[str] | None, expected_class: str, ) -> HorizonCase: predicted = predicted_suffix(partial_sequence, motif_family) observed = ( None if candidate_sequence is None else observed_suffix(partial_sequence, candidate_sequence) ) predicted_tuple = () if predicted is None else predicted return HorizonCase( name=name, motif_family=motif_family, expected_class=expected_class, partial_sequence=tuple(partial_sequence), candidate_sequence=None if candidate_sequence is None else tuple(candidate_sequence), prediction_available=predicted is not None, predicted_full_suffix=predicted_tuple, observed_full_suffix=observed, accepted_h1=predicted is not None and accepted_at_horizon(predicted, observed, "h1"), accepted_h2=predicted is not None and accepted_at_horizon(predicted, observed, "h2"), accepted_full=predicted is not None and accepted_at_horizon(predicted, observed, "full"), ) def predefined_cases() -> list[tuple[str, str, tuple[str, ...], tuple[str, ...] | None, str]]: return [ ( "recurrence_positive_full", "recurrence_loop", ("X", "Y", "X"), ("X", "Y", "X", "Z", "X"), "positive", ), ( "recurrence_prefix_divergent_h1", "recurrence_loop", ("X", "Y", "X"), ("X", "Y", "X", "Z", "Y"), "prefix_divergent_control", ), ( "recurrence_path", "recurrence_loop", ("P0", "P1", "P2"), ("P0", "P1", "P2", "P3", "P4"), "path_control", ), ( "branch_positive_full", "branch_converge_loop", ("X", "Y", "Z", "X"), ("X", "Y", "Z", "X", "W", "Z", "X"), "positive", ), ( "branch_prefix_divergent_h1", "branch_converge_loop", ("X", "Y", "Z", "X"), ("X", "Y", "Z", "X", "W", "Y", "X"), "prefix_divergent_control", ), ( "branch_prefix_divergent_h2", "branch_converge_loop", ("X", "Y", "Z", "X"), ("X", "Y", "Z", "X", "W", "Z", "Y"), "prefix_divergent_control", ), ( "branch_path", "branch_converge_loop", ("P0", "P1", "P2", "P3"), ("P0", "P1", "P2", "P3", "P4", "P5", "P6"), "path_control", ), ( "repeated_positive_full", "repeated_substructure", ("X", "Y", "X", "Z", "X"), ("X", "Y", "X", "Z", "X", "Y", "X", "Z"), "positive", ), ( "repeated_prefix_divergent_h1", "repeated_substructure", ("X", "Y", "X", "Z", "X"), ("X", "Y", "X", "Z", "X", "Y", "Z", "X"), "prefix_divergent_control", ), ( "repeated_path", "repeated_substructure", ("P0", "P1", "P2", "P3", "P4"), ("P0", "P1", "P2", "P3", "P4", "P5", "P6", "P7"), "path_control", ), ] def degree_matched_cases() -> list[tuple[str, str, tuple[str, ...], tuple[str, ...] | None, str]]: records: list[tuple[str, str, tuple[str, ...], tuple[str, ...] | None, str]] = [] for family, motif in consolidate_motifs().items(): controls = sample_degree_matched_controls( motif, family=f"horizon_{family}", count=5, seed=404000 + len(records) ) for control in controls: split = max(2, len(control.sequence) // 2) records.append( ( f"{control.name}_horizon_probe", family, control.sequence[:split], control.sequence, "degree_matched_non_isomorphic_control", ) ) return records def rate(cases: Sequence[HorizonCase], attr: str) -> float: if not cases: return 0.0 return sum(bool(getattr(case, attr)) for case in cases) / len(cases) def run_experiment() -> ExperimentResult: motifs = consolidate_motifs() raw_cases = predefined_cases() + degree_matched_cases() cases = tuple(evaluate_case(*case) for case in raw_cases) positives = [case for case in cases if case.expected_class == "positive"] degree_controls = [ case for case in cases if case.expected_class == "degree_matched_non_isomorphic_control" ] prefix_controls = [case for case in cases if case.expected_class == "prefix_divergent_control"] path_controls = [case for case in cases if case.expected_class == "path_control"] compression_ratio = sum(len(sequences) for sequences in training_data().values()) / len(motifs) metrics = { "positive_h1_acceptance_rate": round(rate(positives, "accepted_h1"), 6), "positive_h2_acceptance_rate": round(rate(positives, "accepted_h2"), 6), "positive_full_acceptance_rate": round(rate(positives, "accepted_full"), 6), "degree_matched_h1_acceptance_rate": round(rate(degree_controls, "accepted_h1"), 6), "degree_matched_h2_acceptance_rate": round(rate(degree_controls, "accepted_h2"), 6), "degree_matched_full_acceptance_rate": round(rate(degree_controls, "accepted_full"), 6), "prefix_divergent_h1_acceptance_rate": round(rate(prefix_controls, "accepted_h1"), 6), "prefix_divergent_h2_acceptance_rate": round(rate(prefix_controls, "accepted_h2"), 6), "prefix_divergent_full_acceptance_rate": round(rate(prefix_controls, "accepted_full"), 6), "path_prediction_rate": round( sum(case.prediction_available for case in path_controls) / len(path_controls), 6 ), "compression_ratio": round(compression_ratio, 6), } criteria = { "positive_full_acceptance_rate_eq_1": metrics["positive_full_acceptance_rate"] == 1.0, "positive_h1_h2_acceptance_rates_eq_1": metrics["positive_h1_acceptance_rate"] == 1.0 and metrics["positive_h2_acceptance_rate"] == 1.0, "degree_matched_full_acceptance_rate_eq_0": metrics["degree_matched_full_acceptance_rate"] == 0.0, "prefix_divergent_full_acceptance_rate_eq_0": metrics[ "prefix_divergent_full_acceptance_rate" ] == 0.0, "prefix_divergent_h2_acceptance_rate_le_0_25": metrics[ "prefix_divergent_h2_acceptance_rate" ] <= 0.25, "path_prediction_rate_eq_0": metrics["path_prediction_rate"] == 0.0, "compression_ratio_ge_3": compression_ratio >= 3.0, } if all(criteria.values()): outcome = "supported" elif criteria["positive_full_acceptance_rate_eq_1"]: outcome = "partially_supported_control_failures" else: outcome = "falsified_positive_prediction_failed" return ExperimentResult( motifs={family: motif.key() for family, motif in motifs.items()}, cases=cases, metrics=metrics, criteria=criteria, outcome=outcome, ) def main() -> None: result = run_experiment() output_path = Path("results/multi_step_completion_experiment_results.json") output_path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) output_path.write_text(json.dumps(asdict(result), indent=2, sort_keys=True) + "\n") print(output_path) print(json.dumps({"outcome": result.outcome, "criteria": result.criteria}, indent=2)) if __name__ == "__main__": main()