| title,source,date,link,content | |
| How Will Walt Disney Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?,Trefis,"Jul 23, 2025",https://www.trefis.com/stock/dis/articles/570233/how-will-walt-disney-stock-react-to-its-upcoming-earnings-2/2025-07-23,"Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) is set to report its Q3 FY’25 results around Wednesday, August 6, 2025. Earnings are expected to come in at about $1.44 per share, per consensus estimates, while revenue is projected to grow by about 2.5% to $23.75 billion. Disney+ and the company’s broader streaming portfolio are expected to remain key financial drivers this quarter. While subscriber growth may be muted due to recent price hikes, Disney has been focusing on improving the profitability of its direct-to-consumer (DTC) operations. In Q2 FY’25, Disney’s DTC segment generated operating income of $336 million, up from just $47 million a year earlier, driven by price hikes and higher advertising revenues. | |
| The company has also been cracking down on password sharing, aiming to convert shared users into paying customers by introducing an extra-member fee starting at $7 per month. Disney’s experiences segment has also been faring well of late, led by strong attendance at its U.S. parks and also due to rising capacity in the cruising segment, which saw the Disney Treasure cruise ship enter service late last year. | |
| The company has $218 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $94 billion, and it was operationally profitable, with $14 billion in operating profits and net income of $8.9 billion. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader. | |
| There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. | |
| See earnings reaction history of all stocks | |
| Walt Disney’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return | |
| Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: | |
| There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time. | |
| and one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time. The percentage remains the same at 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5. | |
| Median of the 10 positive returns = 5.6%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -3.5% | |
| Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below. | |
| Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns | |
| A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns. | |
| Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings? | |
| Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Walt Disney stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Walt Disney. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns. | |
| Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Walt Disney, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception. | |
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| See all Trefis Price Estimates" | |
| DIS Stock Quote Price and Forecast,CNN,"Sep 5, 2023",https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/DIS,"1. How relevant is this ad to you? | |
| Video player was slow to load content Video content never loaded Ad froze or did not finish loading Video content did not start after ad Audio on ad was too loud Other issues" | |
| Is Disney Stock Still a Buy After Disappointing Earnings?,Kiplinger,"Nov 9, 2022",https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/is-disney-stock-still-a-buy-after-disappointing-earnings,"Walt Disney (DIS, $99.90) stock plunged Wednesday after the media conglomerate's fiscal fourth-quarter results missed analysts' estimates and management warned of slower growth going forward. | |
| Disney stock, a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, gapped down by more than 11% soon after the opening bell. Disney, which posted earnings late Tuesday, added that it would slash spending on content amid losses in its strategically important Disney+ streaming business. | |
| A number of analysts responded to the disappointing results by slashing their target prices on Disney stock, but most of Wall Street stuck by its bullish recommendations. | |
| From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance Be a smarter, better informed investor. CLICK FOR FREE ISSUE Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail. Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail. Sign up | |
| Disney stock gets a consensus recommendation of Buy, and with high conviction, to boot. Of the 29 analysts issuing opinions on Disney stock tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 18 rate it at Strong Buy, seven say Buy and four have it at Hold. | |
| Their average price target, however, fell to $136.01 from $140.08 on Tuesday. And yet with Disney stock off sharply on the ugly earnings news, the Street's new target price gives DIS implied upside of more than 50% in the next 12 months or so. That's up from an implied upside of about 40% just 24 hours ago. | |
| For the record, Disney recorded adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 30 cents, far short of analysts' estimate for adjusted EPS of 56 cents, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Revenue came in at $20.2 billion vs. Wall Street's forecast of $21.4 billion. | |
| Disney management blamed the shortfalls on several factors, including lower content sales as a result of having fewer theatrical film releases during the quarter, weaker-than-expected results at theme parks, and sluggish revenue growth in the media division. | |
| But most alarming to traders and investors was Disney's growth forecast for the current fiscal year. | |
| ""Assuming we do not see a meaningful shift in the macroeconomic climate, we currently expect total company fiscal 2023 revenue and segment operating income to both grow at a high-single-digit percentage rate versus fiscal 2022,"" Chief Financial Officer Christine McCarthy said on a conference call with analysts. | |
| The Street was looking for revenue to increase by about 14% in the current fiscal year. Operating income was projected to increase about 17%. | |
| Earnings and revenue misses are bad news, but stocks, being forward looking, are generally far more sensitive to any cut in a company's outlook. That's why Disney stock is taking a beating following its report. | |
| Nevertheless, analysts remain steadfast in their belief that it's time to buy the dip in Disney stock. And they certainly appear to have valuation on their side. DIS stock changes hands at just 17.3 times analysts' fiscal 2024 EPS estimate. That's a compelling price to pay for a company forecast to generate average annual EPS growth of more than 33% over the next three to five years. | |
| For one thing, although the streaming or direct-to-consumer (DTC) business is still bleeding red ink, Disney bulls say it's only a matter of time before the company is able to swing the division to profitability by introducing an advertising supported option. | |
| ""Disney+'s ad-supported tier is going to be a game changer for its subscriber and revenue growth, and considering Disney's slumping average-revenue-per-user growth and increasing DTC operating losses, its launch can't come soon enough,"" writes Third Bridge analyst Jamie Lumley. ""Disney is in a better position than Netflix from an operational perspective because they already have a lot of advertisement technology and infrastructure in place through Hulu and ABC network channels."" | |
| At Morgan Stanley, analyst Ben Swinburne rates Disney stock at Overweight (the equivalent of Buy), arguing that declining losses in streaming and continued growth in the parks segment can help EPS roughly double by fiscal year 2025. | |
| True, anyone considering committing fresh capital to Disney stock would do well to remember that valuation only tends to work its magic over the longer term. That said, there is no disputing that shares have not been this cheap in a long time. Over the past five years, DIS has traded at an average of almost 38 times the Street's EPS forecast, per Refinitiv Stock Reports Plus. | |
| In other words, at current levels, Disney stock offers more than a 50% discount to its historical forward price-to-earnings multiple. That's an attractive relative valuation, and suggests that shares have been beaten down beyond reason. | |
| Disney stock is now off more than 40% for the year-to-date. And while there's no telling when the pain might end, it has rarely been on sale to this extent. Patient investors might want to take a cue from the abundance of bulls on the Street and scoop up this name while its relative valuation remains so deeply depressed." | |
| Is Disney Stock a Buy Ahead of Earnings?,Kiplinger,"Nov 8, 2022",https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/is-disney-stock-a-buy-ahead-of-earnings,"Wall Street analysts are high on Walt Disney (DIS, $100.43) stock ahead of the media conglomerate's earnings report due after Tuesday's closing bell. | |
| Disney stock, a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average , is off 35% for the year-to-date, hurt by everything from inflation and recession fears to the streaming wars and lockdowns in China. | |
| But analysts say the selloff has made Disney stock a long-term bargain at current levels. And they are especially keen to see what the company has to say about its streaming and theme parks businesses. | |
| From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance Be a smarter, better informed investor. CLICK FOR FREE ISSUE Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail. Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail. Sign up | |
| Disney+ is an important driver of the company's long-term growth, analysts note. Netflix's (NFLX) subscriber stumble earlier this year – and NFLX's big third-quarter rebound – only underscore how volatile the streaming business can be. | |
| ""The fierce competition over subscribers in the sector is at fever-pitch, and high inflation means convincing customers to stay logged in is a tall order,"" writes Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Sophie Lund-Yates. ""That's something Netflix knows only too well."" | |
| Meanwhile, although strong U.S. consumer spending and pent-up demand for travel bode well for Disney's theme parks business, COVID-19 lockdowns in China have shuttered Shanghai Disney. | |
| The bottom line is that analysts forecast Disney to report adjusted quarterly earnings per share (EPS) of 56 cents, up from year-ago adjusted earnings of 38 cents per share, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. | |
| Revenue is projected to rise to $21.4 billion from $18.5 billion a year ago, driven by growth in the streaming and theme parks divisions. | |
| A nasty surprise or two in the Disney earnings report could change some minds, but for now analysts believe DIS stock has been beaten down beyond reason. | |
| Morgan Stanley analyst Ben Swinburne, for one, estimates that theme parks and streaming will lift Disney's adjusted EPS back above prior peak levels in fiscal 2025. That should support upside of roughly 40% in Disney stock over the next two years, he says. | |
| Swinburne, of course, rates DIS at Overweight (the equivalent of Buy), and he has plenty of company on the Street. Of the 30 analysts issuing opinions on Disney stock tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 18 rate it at Strong Buy, seven say Buy and five call it a Hold. | |
| That works out to a consensus recommendation just shy of Strong Buy, with analysts frequently citing Disney stock's valuation as a key reason to be constructive on the name. | |
| And shares do indeed look cheap at current levels. | |
| Disney stock currently changes hands at not-quite 19 times analysts' fiscal 2023 EPS estimate. That's an attractive price to pay for a company expected to grow EPS at an average annual pace of more than 33% over the next three to five years. | |
| Bullishness abounds in analysts' price targets, as well. With an average price target of $140.08, the Street gives Disney stock implied upside of almost 40% in the next 12 months or so." | |
| Disney (DIS) Stock Bulls Stay Put Even After Netflix Streaming Slump,Bloomberg.com,"May 11, 2022",https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-11/disney-stock-bulls-stay-put-even-after-netflix-slump-tech-watch,"Even as Walt Disney Co.’s stock heads for its biggest annual drop in at least 47 years, analysts are clinging to their price targets for the media giant, betting that it can avoid the loss of streaming-video subscribers that’s crushed rival Netflix Inc.’s share price. | |
| Analysts expect the stock to rise by about 69% in the next year, based on the average target compiled by Bloomberg. Underpinning their optimism: Disney’s streaming unit still has room to grow and, unlike Netflix, the company has businesses such as theme parks that are set to rebound now that pandemic lockdowns have ended in the U.S. and Europe." | |
| Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) - Stock Analysis,Simply Wall Street,"Dec 1, 2017",https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nyse-dis/walt-disney,"How did DIS perform over the long term? | |
| The Walt Disney Company operates as an entertainment company in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. It operates in three segments: Entertainment, Sports, and Experiences. The company produces and distributes film and television content under the ABC Television Network, Disney, Freeform, FX, Fox, National Geographic, and Star brand television channels, as well as ABC television stations and A+E television networks; and produces original content under the Disney Branded Television, FX Productions, Lucasfilm, Marvel, National Geographic Studios, Pixar, Searchlight Pictures, Twentieth Century Studios, 20th Television, and Walt Disney Pictures banners. | |
| Volatility Over Time : DIS's weekly volatility (2%) has been stable over the past year. | |
| Stable Share Price : DIS has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market. | |
| Return vs Market : DIS underperformed the US Market which returned 12.1% over the past year. | |
| Return vs Industry : DIS underperformed the US Entertainment industry which returned 36.7% over the past year. | |
| The Walt Disney Company to Report Q2, 2024 Results on May 07, 2024 Apr 10 | |
| Random House Publishing Group agreed to acquire BOOM! Entertainment, Inc. from The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) and others. Jul 11 | |
| Disney: The Moat Has Long Dried Up In The New World Of Media Free For All Jul 26 | |
| The Charts And Insider Buying Agree Disney Is At Support (Technical Analysis) Aug 15 | |
| Walt Disney, RIL Likely to Shut Some Channels to Win CCI Nod for Merger Aug 15 | |
| Disney's quarterly performance in the Entertainment segment showed marginal revenue improvement but a significant improvement in operating profit. The impact of Disney's strategic content production a | |
| Narrative update from Bailey Pemberton Aug 27 Disney's quarterly performance in the Entertainment segment showed marginal revenue improvement but a significant improvement in operating profit. The impact of Disney's strategic content production a | |
| Disney Is A Strong Buy: The Flywheel Is Spinning Again Aug 27 | |
| Expansion in the Experiences segment and new broadcasting rights indicate avenues for significant revenue growth through diversified offerings and international expansions. | |
| New Cruise Ships And Disney+ Innovations Set To Propel Growth Despite Cost Challenges Sep 02 Expansion in the Experiences segment and new broadcasting rights indicate avenues for significant revenue growth through diversified offerings and international expansions. | |
| Disney, DIRECTV, The Blackout, And The Next Phase Of The Pay-TV Revolution Sep 07 | |
| The Disney Magic Is Not Gone Forever Sep 23 | |
| Disney Is Heading Into Earnings: Challenges, Legacy, And The Path Forward Nov 04 | |
| Adeia Inc. Files Multiple Patent Infringement Lawsuits in the United States and Europe Against the Walt Disney Company Nov 08 | |
| We Ran A Stock Scan For Earnings Growth And Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) Passed With Ease Nov 29 | |
| Disney is slowly growing its core experience segment, but surprised on the upside with growth in entertainment. | |
| Narrative update from Goran Damchevski Dec 05 Disney is slowly growing its core experience segment, but surprised on the upside with growth in entertainment. | |
| Disney And FuboTV Tie The Knot: This Changes Everything Jan 06 | |
| Is It Too Late To Consider Buying The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS)? Jan 13 | |
| Mickey's Moment Is Here: Upgrading Disney To Buy For 2 Reasons Jan 14 | |
| Estimating The Fair Value Of The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) Jan 24 | |
| Disney Q1 Earnings: What To Make Of These Double Beat Results Feb 05 | |
| Disney Charts Mission To Correct Course, But Must Navigate New Obstacles In The Short Term Mar 21 | |
| The Walt Disney Company to Report Q2, 2025 Results on May 07, 2025 Apr 04 | |
| Why We're Not Concerned About The Walt Disney Company's (NYSE:DIS) Share Price Apr 16 | |
| Here's Why Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) Has Caught The Eye Of Investors May 21 | |
| Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS)? Jul 08 | |
| Estimating The Fair Value Of The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) Jul 20 | |
| Jakks Pacific, Inc. in Collaboration with Disney, Announces A Brand-New Baby Doll Initiative, Disney Darlings,Inspired by Signature Stories and Disney's Iconic Characters Sep 16 | |
| Key Takeaways Disney is entering a new growth phase with streaming finally reaching profitability and the Experiences division expanding rapidly. ESPN is emerging as a pivotal growth engine, with its partnership potential—especially with the NFL—set to redefine sports streaming. | |
| ESPN’s NFL Power Play: How Disney’s Sports Engine Could Drive the Next Leg of Stock Growth Sep 19 Key Takeaways Disney is entering a new growth phase with streaming finally reaching profitability and the Experiences division expanding rapidly. ESPN is emerging as a pivotal growth engine, with its partnership potential—especially with the NFL—set to redefine sports streaming. | |
| The Walt Disney Company Announces Sonia L. Coleman Title Change from Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer to Senior Executive Vice President and Chief People Officer from September 27, 2025 Oct 02 | |
| the Walt Disney Company and Fubotv Inc. Announces Newly Appointed and Continuing Directors for Combined Company Oct 29 | |
| fuboTV Inc. (NYSE:FUBO) completed the acquisition of Hulu + Live TV Business of The Walt Disney Company. Oct 30 | |
| The Walt Disney Company Announces Sonia L. Coleman Title Change from Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer to Senior Executive Vice President and Chief People Officer from September 27, 2025 Oct 02 | |
| the Walt Disney Company and Fubotv Inc. Announces Newly Appointed and Continuing Directors for Combined Company Oct 29 | |
| fuboTV Inc. (NYSE:FUBO) completed the acquisition of Hulu + Live TV Business of The Walt Disney Company. Oct 30 | |
| Key Takeaways Increased licensing and production costs will see Disney's profitability decline or they'll pass on these increasing costs to subscribers and risk alienating them. Competition from non-traditional media platforms like YouTube or Tik-Tok could draw younger audiences away from Disney's services. | |
| Key Takeaways Disney will transform to a tourism-centered company focusing on parks and resorts, a space lacking any serious competition. I expect sales to grow 4.3% over the next 5 years, primarily driven by Parks. | |
| Key Takeaways Disney is entering a new growth phase with streaming finally reaching profitability and the Experiences division expanding rapidly. ESPN is emerging as a pivotal growth engine, with its partnership potential—especially with the NFL—set to redefine sports streaming. | |
| Key Takeaways Accelerated global expansion of theme parks and cruises, especially in emerging markets, is driving revenue growth and increasing pricing power. Strengthened digital and sports offerings, combined with refreshed intellectual property, are enhancing engagement, boosting recurring revenue, and improving profit margins. | |
| See what 547 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts. | |
| No risks detected for DIS from our risk checks. | |
| Operates as an entertainment company in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. More details | |
| Company Analysis and Financial Data Status | |
| Data Last Updated (UTC time) Company Analysis 2025/11/10 08:44 End of Day Share Price 2025/11/07 00:00 Earnings 2025/06/28 Annual Earnings 2024/09/28 | |
| Data Sources | |
| The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available. | |
| * Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used. | |
| Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more. | |
| Analysis Model and Snowflake | |
| Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube. | |
| Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model. | |
| Industry and Sector Metrics | |
| Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github. | |
| Analyst Sources | |
| The Walt Disney Company is covered by 72 analysts. 28 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day." | |
| Is Disney Fairly Priced After Recent Streaming Agreement and 19.5% Share Surge?,Yahoo Finance,2 weeks ago,https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disney-fairly-priced-recent-streaming-111814684.html,"For Walt Disney, the current Free Cash Flow stands at $13.02 Billion. According to analyst forecasts, annual FCF is projected to grow in the years ahead, reaching an estimated $13.51 Billion by 2030. The model uses a two-stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. Analyst consensus provides projections out five years, with modest growth extrapolated beyond that using Simply Wall St's methodology. | |
| A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates what a company is worth by forecasting its likely future cash flows and then discounting them back to their present value. This allows analysts to get a sense of what Walt Disney shares should be worth today, based on expectations about its ability to generate cash over the coming years. | |
| Looking at the numbers, Walt Disney currently earns a value score of 3 out of 6 on our undervaluation checklist. This puts the company right in the middle, reflecting that the story is not just about simple bargains or overhyped expectations. In the next section, we will break down exactly how this score was determined and look at what traditional valuation approaches reveal about whether Disney shares are attractively priced right now. But even these familiar yardsticks might just scratch the surface compared to a bigger-picture way of thinking about value, which we will dive into at the end of the article. | |
| More recently, Disney’s stock gained 2.9% in the last week. This noticeable momentum contrasts with a quiet 0.7% return for the month. This push higher has come amidst renewed buzz over the company’s streaming distribution agreements and a wave of optimistic analyst commentaries on its asset value. There is also cautious optimism related to management’s stated vision for new theme park investments and select international content deals, which some see as key to driving growth in the years to come. | |
| If you are thinking about your next move with Walt Disney stock, you are not alone. This is a name that sparks lively debates among investors and fans alike, especially after a year of eye-catching headlines and subtle, but important, shifts in market sentiment. Over the last twelve months, shares are up 19.5%, fueled in part by upbeat narratives around its theme park recovery, strategic deals to bolster streaming content, and ongoing speculation about new partnerships in the entertainment tech space. Yet if you zoom out five years, the stock has actually lagged, dipping 5.5% and reminding everyone that past performance is never quite as simple as it seems. | |
| Story Continues | |
| The resulting DCF analysis produces an intrinsic value of $106.31 per share. This is around 6.3% higher than the company’s recent share price, indicating that Walt Disney stock is trading slightly above its fair value based on these cash flow projections. | |
| Result: ABOUT RIGHT | |
| Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Walt Disney. | |
| DIS Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2025 | |
| Simply Wall St performs a valuation analysis on every stock in the world every day (check out Walt Disney's valuation analysis). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes. | |
| Approach 2: Walt Disney Price vs Earnings | |
| For profitable companies like Walt Disney, the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a go-to yardstick for investors. It lets you quickly gauge how much you are paying for each dollar of the company’s earnings, making it a useful benchmark for comparing companies that consistently generate profits. | |
| A ""normal"" or ""fair"" PE ratio is rarely static. It is shaped by the growth investors expect and the risks they are willing to accept. Companies with stronger growth prospects or steadier earnings usually command higher PE multiples, while uncertainty or declining profits tend to push multiples lower. | |
| Currently, Walt Disney trades at a PE ratio of 17.6x. This is notably below the Entertainment industry average of 27.3x and also lags behind the average for similar peers at 83.6x. On its surface, this suggests that Disney’s stock could be trading at a relative discount, but raw comparisons do not always tell the full story. | |
| That is where Simply Wall St's proprietary ""Fair Ratio"" comes into play. Their fair PE ratio for Disney currently stands at 25.7x, which is based on a blend of factors such as Disney’s earnings growth potential, profit margins, scale, and risk profile. Instead of just looking at where the broader industry or its closest peers are priced, this approach seeks to more objectively reflect business-specific drivers. The fair ratio aims to provide a sharper, more objective sense of what a reasonable PE for Disney should look like right now. | |
| Against this fair value benchmark, Disney’s actual PE of 17.6x is lower than its fair ratio of 25.7x, but the difference is within a reasonable margin. This suggests the stock is trading at roughly its fair value based on earnings fundamentals today. | |
| Result: ABOUT RIGHT | |
| NYSE:DIS PE Ratio as at Oct 2025 | |
| PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth. | |
| Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Walt Disney Narrative | |
| Earlier, we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. In simple terms, a Narrative is your story or perspective about a company, reflecting not just what the numbers say, but why you believe Disney's fair value, future revenue, earnings, and profit margins could play out a certain way. Narratives link the company’s background, trends, and catalysts to concrete financial forecasts and, ultimately, a fair value estimate. | |
| They’re easy to access via Simply Wall St's Community page, where millions of investors use Narratives to transparently express and compare their expectations. Narratives make investment decisions clearer by laying out your fair value alongside the market price, so you can more confidently decide when to buy, hold, or sell. As news or earnings come in, or the outlook changes, Narratives are updated dynamically to keep you on track. | |
| For example, one Disney Narrative sees ESPN’s NFL partnership, global park expansion, and streaming gains driving fair value as high as $131.50 per share. Another, more cautious view, puts fair value as low as $79 based on margin and growth headwinds. In short, Narratives help you invest with both numbers and personal conviction, providing a powerful upgrade from one-size-fits-all valuation tools. | |
| Do you think there's more to the story for Walt Disney? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know! | |
| NYSE:DIS Community Fair Values as at Oct 2025 | |
| This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. | |
| Companies discussed in this article include DIS. | |
| Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com" | |
| "Prediction: After Gaining 2% in 10 years, This Dow Jones Value Stock Will Crush the S&P 500 Over the Next Decade",The Motley Fool,3 weeks ago,https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/10/21/prediction-buy-disney-stock-beat-dow-jones-sp-500/,"Disney is doubling down on its best ideas, and that's great news for long-term investors. | |
| The S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.13%) has crushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI +0.16%) over the last decade largely thanks to its increased concentration in tech stocks. | |
| Investors buying a basket of Dow stocks still would have produced solid gains. That is, unless they were only invested in Walt Disney (DIS +0.23%), which is basically flat over the last decade. | |
| Here's why the value stock can turn it around and even beat the S&P 500 over the next 10 years. | |
| Back to the drawing board | |
| It's been a rough decade for Disney. In the mid to late 2010s, the company was releasing box office hit after hit, largely thanks to its Marvel and Star Wars franchises. | |
| The launch of Disney+ in November 2019 was meant to put Disney on the streaming map. And it did at first. But the COVID-19 pandemic crushed its parks, experiences, and movie business. Disney+ was growing subscribers, but it was burning through cash at a breakneck pace. It took years for Disney to recover and get Disney+ to consistent profitability. But that came at a cost, as its legacy cable business, which Disney calls linear networks, has been in gradual decline. | |
| Fast-forward to today, and Disney's linear networks and box office movie businesses are arguably weaker than they were a decade ago. But Disney+ is turning a profit, and its parks and cruise lines are thriving. Still, when you add it all up, Disney's earnings have barely grown over the last decade. | |
| In a 1993 interview with Charlie Rose, the famous Fidelity mutual fund manager Peter Lynch simplified what drives stock prices over the long run: | |
| I don't think people understand there's a 100% correlation between what happens to a company's earnings over several years and what happens to the stock. McDonald's has done very well as a company, the stock has done very well. People worry about too much money supply, what's happened to the price of oil, who the president is, who's being nominated to the Supreme Court, the ozone layer. It has nothing to do. McDonald's earnings go up over the next 10 years, the stock will go up. | |
| It sounds simple, but what Lynch is getting at is that long-term investors should focus on how a company plans to grow its earnings first, rather than speculating on what the stock price will do. | |
| Disney's poor stock performance embodies Lynch's logic, as its earnings have been down in recent years. But investors care more about where a company is headed than where it has been. Disney can outperform the S&P 500 over the next decade because it has what it takes to grow earnings at a good pace, and the stock price will follow. | |
| The glass-half-full outlook on Disney | |
| Fiscal 2025 has been an outstanding year for Disney, especially considering consumer-facing companies have been one of the weakest parts of the market. Many retailers, restaurant stocks, and car companies that depend on big-ticket sales are struggling as consumers navigate cost-of-living challenges. | |
| And yet, for full-year fiscal 2025, Disney is forecasting 8% operating income growth from its experiences segment, double-digit percentage operating income growth from entertainment, entertainment direct-to-consumer (led by Disney+) up $1.3 billion in operating income, and adjusted earnings per share of $5.85 -- an 18% increase from fiscal 2024. | |
| Expand NYSE : DIS Walt Disney Today's Change ( 0.23 %) $ 0.25 Current Price $ 110.74 Key Data Points Market Cap $199B Day's Range $ 110.04 - $ 111.42 52wk Range $ 80.10 - $ 124.69 Volume 8.8M Avg Vol 7.8M Gross Margin 31.80 % Dividend Yield 0.01 % | |
| This fiscal year has been arguably Disney's best in the post-pandemic era because it validates that Disney+ can be a steadily growing cash cow and that consumers will still pay up for vacations to Disney's parks and cruises even when budgets are tight. | |
| The biggest growth catalysts for Disney over the next decade are its direct-to-consumer service through Disney+ (including Hulu) and the launch of ESPN's stand-alone direct-to-consumer segment, as well as investments paying off in its parks and cruises. | |
| In September 2023, Disney announced plans to double capital expenditures over the next 10 years in its Parks, Experiences, and Products segment to $60 billion. A key aspect of that buildout is cruise ships. The fleet is more than doubling from five ships at the start of 2024 to 13 by 2031, including the addition of five ""Wish-class"" ships (Disney Treasure in December 2024, Disney Destiny in November 2025, Disney Adventure in March 2026, a fourth ship in 2027, and another in 2029) and then three smaller ships in 2029, 2030, and 2031. | |
| Disney is expanding its existing parks with new attractions and lands, including massive upgrades at Disneyland and Walt Disney World. In May 2025, Disney announced plans for a new theme park and resort in Abu Dhabi, which will likely open sometime in the early 2030s. | |
| Buying Disney stock now is a bet that investments in direct-to-consumer and experiences will translate to earnings growth. | |
| Disney's stock could rise based on its earnings growth and a valuation expansion. Disney trades at a discount to its historical average, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.4 and a forward P/E of 17.1 compared to a 10-year median P/E of 21.5. | |
| Disney is a top buy for long-term value investors | |
| Disney is a no-brainer buy for investors who are confident in its capital allocation plans. With mixed results at the box office and declining linear networks, Disney is shifting its focus to its high-margin cash cows. It's the right move, and one that aligns with Disney's franchise flywheel model. | |
| Disney extends the useful life of its content by monetizing it across on-screen and in-person experiences. For example, Toy Story has produced multiple movies, merchandise, and rides at the parks. That's a much longer shelf life than a one-off box office hit. | |
| If Wall Street starts valuing Disney's streaming earnings similarly to Netflix and experiences investments pay off, then Disney could beat the S&P 500 just by generating consistently decent earnings growth. All told, it stands out as a moderate risk/potentially high-reward buy for long-term investors." | |
| Disney Just Lost 7 Million Subscribers. Does That Even Matter for DIS Stock?,Barchart.com,2 weeks ago,https://www.barchart.com/story/news/35665237/disney-just-lost-7-million-subscribers-does-that-even-matter-for-dis-stock,"ABC and its parent company, Walt Disney (DIS), continue to see the impact of ABC’s decision to suspend late-night talk show host Jimmy Kimmel in the wake of Charlie Kirk’s assassination. | |
| A report from Antenna Research Associations shows about 7 million subscribers cancelled their Disney+ and Hulu subscriptions after ABC put Kimmel on the shelf from Sept. 17 to Sept. 25. Kimmel, in his Sept. 17 monologue, discussed reactions to the shooting death of Kirk, the founder of Turning Point USA. He said, “We hit some new lows over the weekend with the MAGA gang desperately trying to characterize this kid who murdered Charlie Kirk as anything other than one of them, and doing everything they can to score political points from it.” | |
| ABC took Kimmel’s show, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, off the air Sept. 17, after FCC chairman Brendan Carr threatened action against ABC and Disney. “We can do this the easy way or the hard way. These companies can find ways to change conduct and take action, frankly, on Kimmel, or there's going to be additional work for the FCC ahead,” he said. | |
| The drop of 7 million subscribers is significant. Disney reported 183 million Disney+ and Hulu subscribers at the end of the second quarter, up 2.6 million from the previous quarter. So, losing 7 million would be a setback—even though the company also added 2.2 million new Disney+ subscribers in September through a paid plan or free trial. Hulu added 2.1 million new subscribers, according to Antenna's report. | |
| DIS stock has been treading water for the last month, and the subscriber base for Disney+ and Hulu is churning. How should investors view Disney right now? | |
| About Walt Disney Stock | |
| Based in Burbank, California, Disney is a lot more than just television. In addition to its streaming services and ABC television, Disney owns the ESPN platform, which is the dominant sports broadcaster in the U.S.; film studios that include Disney, Pixar, Star Wars, and Marvel Entertainment; cruise lines; and the company’s signature theme parks in Florida and California. With a market cap of more than $200 billion, Disney is a true entertainment conglomerate. | |
| Share prices have trailed the market this year, however, up only 0.36% versus the 15.5% year-to-date (YTD) return in the S&P 500 ($SPX). | |
| The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio that’s relatively favorable, particularly compared to its competition. Disney’s trailing P/E of 17.7 is better than Netflix (NFLX) (46.5) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) (70.3). Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is slightly better, with a P/E of 13.5. | |
| Disney pays a small dividend of $1 per share, representing a yield of 0.9%. Interestingly, Disney typically pays the dividend twice a year, rather than quarterly, so that’s something to be aware of if you’re counting on a consistent revenue stream. | |
| Disney Beats on Earnings | |
| On Aug. 6, Disney reported earnings for its fiscal third quarter (ending June 28). Revenue of $23.65 billion was up 2% from a year ago, while operating income of $4.57 billion was up 8% on a year-over-year (YoY) basis. Disney posted earnings per share of $1.61, beating analysts’ estimates of $1.46. | |
| Disney is leaning hard into its sports programming with its direct-to-consumer platform for ESPN that offers tens of thousands of sports events annually through its app or connected TVs, rather than relying on cable providers to purchase ESPN for its customers. The direct-to-consumer division posted a profit of $346 million for the quarter, with revenue of $6.17 billion. | |
| “The company is taking major steps forward in streaming with the … launch of ESPN’s direct-to-consumer service, our just-announced plans with the NFL, and our forthcoming integration of Hulu into Disney+, creating a truly differentiated streaming proposition that harnesses the highest-caliber brands and franchises, general entertainment, family programming, news, and industry-leading sports content,” Disney CEO Bob Iger said. | |
| For the fourth quarter, Disney issued guidance for more than 10 million additional Disney+ and Hulu subscribers. The churn experienced in the wake of the Kimmel controversy may make it difficult to hit those numbers. Disney has scheduled its Q4 earnings report for Nov. 13. | |
| What Do Analysts Expect for DIS Stock? | |
| There’s a lot of bullish sentiment for Disney stock. Of the 29 analysts currently covering it, 20 of them call DIS stock a “Strong Buy,” and two others call it a “Moderate Buy.” The rest all advocate holding, but not a single analyst suggests selling. | |
| Price targets for DIS stock range between $100 and $160, with the mean price target of $136.58 indicating a 20% upside. If you’re extremely bullish about Disney, you could expect as much as 41% upside, but the most bearish analyst’s target would suggest a dip of nearly 12%. | |
| Considering the overwhelming sentiment for DIS stock, the Kimmel controversy looks to be a minor one for Disney (and one from which it has already backtracked, as Kimmel is back on the air). Expect the churn of subscribers to fade quickly and for Disney to continue adding subscribers to Disney+ and Hulu." | |
| Walt Disney (DIS) Stock Moves -1.62%: What You Should Know,Yahoo Finance,1 month ago,https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walt-disney-dis-stock-moves-214502070.html,"Walt Disney (DIS) ended the recent trading session at $109.19, demonstrating a -1.62% change from the preceding day's closing price. This move was narrower than the S&P 500's daily loss of 2.71%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw a downswing of 1.9%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq depreciated by 3.56%. | |
| Heading into today, shares of the entertainment company had lost 5.2% over the past month, lagging the Consumer Discretionary sector's loss of 3.63% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.5%. | |
| Analysts and investors alike will be keeping a close eye on the performance of Walt Disney in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company's earnings report is set to go public on November 13, 2025. The company is expected to report EPS of $1.03, down 9.65% from the prior-year quarter. Alongside, our most recent consensus estimate is anticipating revenue of $22.91 billion, indicating a 1.48% upward movement from the same quarter last year. | |
| For the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $5.87 per share and a revenue of $94.84 billion, representing changes of +18.11% and 0%, respectively, from the prior year. | |
| It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for Walt Disney. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook. | |
| Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-term stock moves. To take advantage of this, we've established the Zacks Rank, an exclusive model that considers these estimated changes and delivers an operational rating system. | |
| The Zacks Rank system, spanning from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), boasts an impressive track record of outperformance, audited externally, with #1 ranked stocks yielding an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has shifted 0.13% downward. Walt Disney is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). | |
| In the context of valuation, Walt Disney is at present trading with a Forward P/E ratio of 17.13. Its industry sports an average Forward P/E of 19.07, so one might conclude that Walt Disney is trading at a discount comparatively. | |
| One should further note that DIS currently holds a PEG ratio of 1.46. The PEG ratio is similar to the widely-used P/E ratio, but this metric also takes the company's expected earnings growth rate into account. As the market closed yesterday, the Media Conglomerates industry was having an average PEG ratio of 2.48." | |