question stringlengths 10 193 | answer stringclasses 2 values |
|---|---|
If Trump wins, will he offer RFK Jr. a position in his administration? | YES |
Will the Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul fight happen on Nov 15 on Netflix as planned? | YES |
Will a sequel to "Slay the Spire" be announced in 2024? | YES |
Will Max Verstappen score more poles than Perez does P3+ in 2024? | YES |
Will Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor retire before the presidential election in November? | NO |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Nevada? | YES |
Will the killer of Brian Thompson be arrested by the end of 2024? | YES |
In November 2024 presidential election, will the major party candidates be Kamala Harris and Nikki Haley? | NO |
Will Trump improve his margin with Black voters in 2024? | YES |
Will the SF Giants make the playoffs this year? | NO |
Argentina will officially announce plans for dollarization by 11/20/24 | NO |
Will the democratic party do better in Michigan than in Wisconsin in the 2024 presidential election? | NO |
Will Destiny stop taking Vyvanse for 2+ weeks in 2024? | NO |
Donald Trump meets with Marine Le Pen during his Paris trip | NO |
Will SpaceX try to land a Booster at Boca Chica in 2024? | YES |
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Nominee for president in 2024 | NO |
Will weed / marijuana be rescheduled / legalized before election day? | NO |
Will the January 6th Case against Trump have a mistrial/hung jury before election day? | NO |
Will Ron DeSantis be accused of sexual assault before the 2024 Election? | NO |
Will Jimmy Carter die on the same day of the year as any other United States president has? | NO |
Bitcoin above $93K on Thanksgiving? | YES |
Will Linkin Park release a new album (post-Chester’s death) this decade? | YES |
Given Trump wins all 7 swing states, will he flip another "Likely Dem" state or district? | NO |
Will "TSMC" be said by anyone in a Presidential debate in 2024? | NO |
will research on AI/ML win a nobel prize by 2030? | YES |
Will the email open rate of my "Jimmy Carter's 100th Birthday!" Manifold newsletter be ≥20% in two days? | YES |
Will Piastri get more Points then Russel in the 2024 Formula 1 Season? | YES |
Will Chrome os reach 2.50% market share by the end of the year | NO |
Will AI be able to correctly plot data in MS Paint before October 2024? | NO |
will trump win us election in 2024 | YES |
Will InvoCare be acquired by another company before the end of 2024? | YES |
Will the Nebraska college football team go 7-0 in the 2024 season | NO |
Will a Republican win Arizona for President by 2050? | YES |
Will the 2024 movie Civil War by Alex Garland make $150 million at the worldwide box office? | NO |
Will the "2024 Election be Sooner or Later Than Planned"? | NO |
Will the price of Bitcoin hit $90,000 before 2025? | YES |
Will a third party candidate win 2024 US presidential election? | NO |
Will the US presidential election (2024) be postponed? | NO |
Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen win two gold medals in the 1500m/5000m double at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | NO |
Vox predictions: OpenAI will release ChatGPT-5 by the end of November 2024 | NO |
Will @Panfilo finish #1 in a Manifold Master League in 2024? | NO |
Will Reflection Llama 3.1 70B be proven to beat Llama 3.1 405B Instruct in GPQA by the end of September 2024? | NO |
Will Fernando Alonso win an F1 race in 2024? | NO |
Will Trump reach 60% before election day? | YES |
Will there be at least one New York Times article on AI every week in 2024? | YES |
Will Microsoft acquire Cursor before the end of 2024 | NO |
Will Intels CPU market share drop below 60% by the end of 2024? | NO |
Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2038? | YES |
Will Caitlin Clark score 50+ points in any game during her first WNBA season? | NO |
Will Usyk win the rematch against Fury? | YES |
Will Trump receive at least 60 million votes? | YES |
Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030? | YES |
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Nov 13 than it closed on Nov 12? | YES |
Will Messi be named Most Valuable Player for the MLS 2024 season? | YES |
Will Harris and Trump have a second debate? | NO |
Will the Trump campaign leaks be published? | YES |
Will Trump say DeSanctimonious again during the election? | NO |
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Fernando Alonso finish 6th or higher in the Drivers Championship? | NO |
Will Kamala Harris and Pokimane talk together publicly before the election? | NO |
Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024? | YES |
Will Bitcoin hit 100K in 2024? | YES |
Will San Diego State be in the Pac12 for the 2024 football season? | NO |
Will one presidential candidate drop below 30% odds then go on to win? | NO |
Will I get into a fight at this conference? | NO |
Will Republicans win the popular vote but lose the election? | NO |
Will MethaneSAT discover a major methane leak in 2024? | NO |
Will Astro Bot win in any category at the Game Awards 2024? | YES |
Will Manifold MANA (Ṁ) be listed on a crypto exchange by 2025? | NO |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Maine? | NO |
Will a convicted felon win the 2024 presidential election? | YES |
Will Taylor Swift release a new album in the second half of 2024? | NO |
Will Jake Paul win a boxing match against Mike Tyson by the end of 2025? | YES |
Will 538 correctly predict the winner of the 2024 presidential election? | NO |
Will there be a major strike at east coast USA ports lasting at least three weeks in 2024? | NO |
Will Richard Ngo still be working at OpenAI in 2025? | NO |
Will Fox News call the 2024 election on election night? | YES |
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will either Michigan or Washington appear in the next National Championship game? | NO |
Will Donald Trump flip a state? | YES |
Will hazel upload again on her main channel before the end of the year? | YES |
Will Shelley Moore Capito endorse Mike Pence? | NO |
Will Israel launch an attack on Iranian soil before the end of October 2024? | YES |
Trump vote share in Butler County, PA >= 70%? | NO |
Will OpenAI fund/start/buy an AI Chip company (semiconductors) in 2024? | NO |
WillW the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Nov 7 than it closed on Nov 6? | YES |
Will Leyline of Resonance be banned in any official constructed MTG format by December 31st, 2024? | YES |
9) Some of the hype and herd mentality behavior that shifted from crypto to AI in 2023 will shift back to crypto in 2024 | NO |
Will Trump post “Stop the Count” in the days following the election? | NO |
Do lawmakers still make laws? 🏛️👩⚖️👨⚖️ | YES |
Will Trump choose Marjorie Taylor Green as a running mate in for the 2024 presidential election? | NO |
Will Trump win Michigan in the 2024 Presidential Election? | YES |
Will AAPL launch its own modem in the 2024 iPhone? | NO |
Will the top chatbot in 2025 "think" before responding to a difficult prompt? | YES |
Will Kamala lead Trump in both 538 and Nate Silver's forecasts on any day before Sunday, September 22nd? | YES |
In the next 6 months, will it be publicly confirmed that Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike are working on a project together? | NO |
Will SOTA on MATH in Sep 2024 utilize a hard-coded search/amplification procedure? | NO |
Will Colorado have abortion as a referendum question in 2024? | YES |
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Florida defeat Mississippi State? | YES |
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Florida defeat LSU? | YES |
Will Meta release any same-size LLaMa that performs better at MMLU before October 14th 2024? | NO |
Will Nebraska become a winner-takes-all state before the 2024 US election? | NO |
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