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If Trump wins, will he offer RFK Jr. a position in his administration?
YES
Will the Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul fight happen on Nov 15 on Netflix as planned?
YES
Will a sequel to "Slay the Spire" be announced in 2024?
YES
Will Max Verstappen score more poles than Perez does P3+ in 2024?
YES
Will Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor retire before the presidential election in November?
NO
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Nevada?
YES
Will the killer of Brian Thompson be arrested by the end of 2024?
YES
In November 2024 presidential election, will the major party candidates be Kamala Harris and Nikki Haley?
NO
Will Trump improve his margin with Black voters in 2024?
YES
Will the SF Giants make the playoffs this year?
NO
Argentina will officially announce plans for dollarization by 11/20/24
NO
Will the democratic party do better in Michigan than in Wisconsin in the 2024 presidential election?
NO
Will Destiny stop taking Vyvanse for 2+ weeks in 2024?
NO
Donald Trump meets with Marine Le Pen during his Paris trip
NO
Will SpaceX try to land a Booster at Boca Chica in 2024?
YES
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Nominee for president in 2024
NO
Will weed / marijuana be rescheduled / legalized before election day?
NO
Will the January 6th Case against Trump have a mistrial/hung jury before election day?
NO
Will Ron DeSantis be accused of sexual assault before the 2024 Election?
NO
Will Jimmy Carter die on the same day of the year as any other United States president has?
NO
Bitcoin above $93K on Thanksgiving?
YES
Will Linkin Park release a new album (post-Chester’s death) this decade?
YES
Given Trump wins all 7 swing states, will he flip another "Likely Dem" state or district?
NO
Will "TSMC" be said by anyone in a Presidential debate in 2024?
NO
will research on AI/ML win a nobel prize by 2030?
YES
Will the email open rate of my "Jimmy Carter's 100th Birthday!" Manifold newsletter be ≥20% in two days?
YES
Will Piastri get more Points then Russel in the 2024 Formula 1 Season?
YES
Will Chrome os reach 2.50% market share by the end of the year
NO
Will AI be able to correctly plot data in MS Paint before October 2024?
NO
will trump win us election in 2024
YES
Will InvoCare be acquired by another company before the end of 2024?
YES
Will the Nebraska college football team go 7-0 in the 2024 season
NO
Will a Republican win Arizona for President by 2050?
YES
Will the 2024 movie Civil War by Alex Garland make $150 million at the worldwide box office?
NO
Will the "2024 Election be Sooner or Later Than Planned"?
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin hit $90,000 before 2025?
YES
Will a third party candidate win 2024 US presidential election?
NO
Will the US presidential election (2024) be postponed?
NO
Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen win two gold medals in the 1500m/5000m double at the Paris 2024 Olympics?
NO
Vox predictions: OpenAI will release ChatGPT-5 by the end of November 2024
NO
Will @Panfilo finish #1 in a Manifold Master League in 2024?
NO
Will Reflection Llama 3.1 70B be proven to beat Llama 3.1 405B Instruct in GPQA by the end of September 2024?
NO
Will Fernando Alonso win an F1 race in 2024?
NO
Will Trump reach 60% before election day?
YES
Will there be at least one New York Times article on AI every week in 2024?
YES
Will Microsoft acquire Cursor before the end of 2024
NO
Will Intels CPU market share drop below 60% by the end of 2024?
NO
Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2038?
YES
Will Caitlin Clark score 50+ points in any game during her first WNBA season?
NO
Will Usyk win the rematch against Fury?
YES
Will Trump receive at least 60 million votes?
YES
Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?
YES
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Nov 13 than it closed on Nov 12?
YES
Will Messi be named Most Valuable Player for the MLS 2024 season?
YES
Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?
NO
Will the Trump campaign leaks be published?
YES
Will Trump say DeSanctimonious again during the election?
NO
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Fernando Alonso finish 6th or higher in the Drivers Championship?
NO
Will Kamala Harris and Pokimane talk together publicly before the election?
NO
Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024?
YES
Will Bitcoin hit 100K in 2024?
YES
Will San Diego State be in the Pac12 for the 2024 football season?
NO
Will one presidential candidate drop below 30% odds then go on to win?
NO
Will I get into a fight at this conference?
NO
Will Republicans win the popular vote but lose the election?
NO
Will MethaneSAT discover a major methane leak in 2024?
NO
Will Astro Bot win in any category at the Game Awards 2024?
YES
Will Manifold MANA (Ṁ) be listed on a crypto exchange by 2025?
NO
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Maine?
NO
Will a convicted felon win the 2024 presidential election?
YES
Will Taylor Swift release a new album in the second half of 2024?
NO
Will Jake Paul win a boxing match against Mike Tyson by the end of 2025?
YES
Will 538 correctly predict the winner of the 2024 presidential election?
NO
Will there be a major strike at east coast USA ports lasting at least three weeks in 2024?
NO
Will Richard Ngo still be working at OpenAI in 2025?
NO
Will Fox News call the 2024 election on election night?
YES
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will either Michigan or Washington appear in the next National Championship game?
NO
Will Donald Trump flip a state?
YES
Will hazel upload again on her main channel before the end of the year?
YES
Will Shelley Moore Capito endorse Mike Pence?
NO
Will Israel launch an attack on Iranian soil before the end of October 2024?
YES
Trump vote share in Butler County, PA >= 70%?
NO
Will OpenAI fund/start/buy an AI Chip company (semiconductors) in 2024?
NO
WillW the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Nov 7 than it closed on Nov 6?
YES
Will Leyline of Resonance be banned in any official constructed MTG format by December 31st, 2024?
YES
9) Some of the hype and herd mentality behavior that shifted from crypto to AI in 2023 will shift back to crypto in 2024
NO
Will Trump post “Stop the Count” in the days following the election?
NO
Do lawmakers still make laws? 🏛️👩‍⚖️👨‍⚖️
YES
Will Trump choose Marjorie Taylor Green as a running mate in for the 2024 presidential election?
NO
Will Trump win Michigan in the 2024 Presidential Election?
YES
Will AAPL launch its own modem in the 2024 iPhone?
NO
Will the top chatbot in 2025 "think" before responding to a difficult prompt?
YES
Will Kamala lead Trump in both 538 and Nate Silver's forecasts on any day before Sunday, September 22nd?
YES
In the next 6 months, will it be publicly confirmed that Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike are working on a project together?
NO
Will SOTA on MATH in Sep 2024 utilize a hard-coded search/amplification procedure?
NO
Will Colorado have abortion as a referendum question in 2024?
YES
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Florida defeat Mississippi State?
YES
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Florida defeat LSU?
YES
Will Meta release any same-size LLaMa that performs better at MMLU before October 14th 2024?
NO
Will Nebraska become a winner-takes-all state before the 2024 US election?
NO