id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2 classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2 values | commentType stringclasses 1 value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2 values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
h4loqduy3m5 | false | GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "yo65xt06vi",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I am also experiencing huge Manifold lag, is this a common problem?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Paul Crowley | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,222,687,774 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | PaulCrowley | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | 4kx8t8ny428 | null | null | null | null |
aubz4j2ng7 | false | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolving YES -- many outlets are reporting",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "Iranian President Raisi and Foreign Minister Dead in East Azerbaijan Helicopter Crash on Sunday",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://deepnewz.com/israel/iranian-president-raisi-foreign-minister-dead-east-crash-on",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://deepnewz.com/israel/iranian-president-raisi-foreign-minister-dead-east-crash-on",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6iuTIK7yFm.31?alt=media&token=49c50fca-c71a-43bb-9870-c0f73fe3a419",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Niko | ZS3WO9kPXUYSDsN0SHTs | public | contract | 1,716,222,828,132 | will-iranian-president-ebrahim-rais | Moscow25 | Will Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi be confirmed dead by July 1st 2024? 🚁🇮🇷 | null | null | null | null | null | |
zzcqu1u8c7 | false | 0wZ0MmJzG9RL7OnjbqYydNeZXjv1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "By the way my answer would definitely be ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://ohmygit.org/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://ohmygit.org/",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", but I don't want to pay the 250M to submit a new answer since I doubt I'll get it back",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | colorednoise | Ss20F3rqbJ3YIhOiiQZ0 | public | contract | 1,716,222,868,530 | what-are-some-of-the-best-education | colorednoise | What are some of the best educational games? | null | null | null | null | null | |
pxs6cjjorkr | false | lUGDbuJVTpPyYsXTYXpd4139sE43 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ct787fcumt5",
"label": "jbjonas",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " see: \"About\" - \"Changelog\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FkBu1HuZLh5.png?alt=media&token=2537c2d7-6161-404b-a5b1-700d10e763a4",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ender Ting | toUrV56jwIQq25F9tDox | public | contract | 1,716,223,765,095 | daily-coinflip-6344976df279 | AnT | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcWkbPJnNa7oUkYFwveuKh1CoCbDrksUco-QNBP=s96-c | Daily coinflip | 8nc1qijkfsm | 1 | 259.108669 | NO | null |
ppmpqc3nbb | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "0at2mr9rdcic",
"label": "CertaintyOfVictory",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " i should be there",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | z0Wi3VtufiS9bPUO0hnz | public | contract | 1,716,224,116,359 | will-i-taste-cerveza-cristal-before | strutheo | Will I taste Cerveza Cristal before I die? | 0at2mr9rdcic | 0.524756 | 16.388571 | YES | null | |
irxl0a8t3fq | false | guk5fCbShPT5kQ3qRnEgGuo52ND2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "v61fjxkjshl",
"label": "JoshuaWilkes",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " No threats of physical violence brochacho! Next time just keep scrolling and skip my question, no need for the toxicity, I didn't leave the first comment here and certainly don't do this on your markets. Let's just leave it at that.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Judd Blackberg | QzSy62yqM276J3Gvi13o | public | contract | 1,716,224,420,812 | patrick-mahomes-gets-divorced-befor | JuddBlackberg | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKV28OUwAEDVezCxWyiEpBGRuKsfO6gC_nMg-eDWLXnDWDfQg=s96-c | Patrick Mahomes gets divorced before retiring from football | 4611kiwqpij | 0.239106 | -0 | NO | null |
vzfa3xh2nlr | false | bAaEkYUZ7aRDTFXVae420yZC3Uf2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4kx8t8ny428",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Yeah I didn't actually mean to buy twice, I clicked again because my first buy wasn't showing up.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jeremy Gillen | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,224,501,695 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | JeremyGillen | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu-QOUaQP_9D4IaUiXWuA59UEQHOa1F83MNP28bMKQ=s96-c | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | 4kx8t8ny428 | 0.669866 | 1,021.836692 | YES | null |
2syim7iuhrr | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Might be interesting (yet unsurprising) seeing Nippon steel advertising in Punchbowl newsletter with a link to their advertising campaign for the merger: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.bestdealforamericansteel.com/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=5/20/24%20%20Punchbowl%20News%20AM&utm_term=Punchbowl%20AM%20and%20Active%20Subscribers%20from%20Memberful%20Combined",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.bestdealforamericansteel.com/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=5/20/24%20%20Punchbowl%20News%20AM&utm_term=Punchbowl%20AM%20and%20Active%20Subscribers%20from%20Memberful%20Combined",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | JRP | zJsaA3TxOQgnZLBrE8xq | public | contract | 1,716,224,574,766 | nippon-steel-acquires-us-steel | parhizj | Nippon Steel acquires US Steel? | null | null | null | null | null | |
e0ezcuvukcf | false | MCbUkwjw7ebMPbGwctaZmM1ca2U2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Do we know if this exit NDA is just for him, or it applies to everyone at OpenAI for sure? Edit: saw some other twitters by other employees, seems to be general to all",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ZYC | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,224,782,072 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | zyc | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ic7n3t6b7b | false | MCbUkwjw7ebMPbGwctaZmM1ca2U2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Also is there a time limit on this market?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ZYC | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,224,903,301 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | zyc | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | null | 0.669866 | 11.467102 | NO | null | |
0p8k0zf0nwp | false | PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F1mnu01zItv.markets?alt=media&token=2ae0f9fa-311f-4e07-b2a1-a99ef7fad4d5",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | CyfralCoot | ZzCmhyQ6jpdx35903BdP | public | contract | 1,716,224,932,838 | will-i-be-able-to-resolve-this-mark-45c95f0c1e02 | CyfralCoot | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c | Will I be able to resolve this market N/A on?.. | null | null | 196.25509 | YES | 0a346a7a1677 |
2v7zfg761t9 | false | JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "e0ezcuvukcf",
"label": "zyc",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " According to this tweet he was making 900K so probably not ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "everyone",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " at OpenAI ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/MelindaBChu1/status/1789765929871482912",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/MelindaBChu1/status/1789765929871482912",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | gpt_news_headlines | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,224,945,208 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | gpt_news_headlines | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1 | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | e0ezcuvukcf | 0.669866 | 3,071.350797 | YES | null |
d1fnwmb95sm | false | vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "die64lbouum",
"label": "MartinModrak",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " A lot of them are >99%, and events aren’t independent here. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | shadowyzephyr | xkvfButiI1M4Y0u3mqtT | public | contract | 1,716,225,076,033 | will-there-be-any-upsets-in-the-202 | ShadowyZephyr | Will there be any upsets in the 2024 US Presidential election? | die64lbouum | null | null | null | null | |
j84wh7rqcs9 | false | ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ugnxotyo0bn",
"label": "BrunoParga",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Resolves YES; edited to clarify",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Zane | xkvfButiI1M4Y0u3mqtT | public | contract | 1,716,225,081,532 | will-there-be-any-upsets-in-the-202 | ZaneMiller | Will there be any upsets in the 2024 US Presidential election? | ugnxotyo0bn | null | null | null | null | |
f995lbl6vpm | false | wbXNSHyBlFb22U3jMxheKBoOXYn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "5/20 at 7 races completed. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ferrari: 1",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Max: 5. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Chris V | TXJwsCKs0ue1sjWYsEt2 | public | contract | 1,716,225,115,036 | will-ferrari-win-2-races-before-max | voodoo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJvMxwuK2gMCy5Z5egEg2drhsz4s5lov7Jd_WwypFTydJw=s96-c | Will Ferrari win 2 races before Max Verstappen wins 8? | null | 0.548942 | 252.901546 | NO | null |
k6hhg13l5h | false | GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ic7n3t6b7b",
"label": "zyc",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Market closes October 12, see the banner",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Paul Crowley | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,225,128,202 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | PaulCrowley | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | ic7n3t6b7b | 0.669866 | 185.00068 | YES | null |
sqcenuq7og | false | oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Why are the 2008 bank bail outs so bad? They were just loans to banks that needed them, and kept the economy afloat",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | mongo | 9QsfOW232lNnFj6ASRrZ | public | contract | 1,716,225,352,908 | what-is-worse-than-financial-crimes | mongo | What is worse than committing a financial crime? | null | null | null | null | null | |
bn1pg2xtx9d | false | Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What happened?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Enlil | TOBr4wCpyg8UhoQ7M1vT | public | contract | 1,716,225,684,535 | who-will-finish-in-the-points-at-th | Enlil | Who will finish in the points at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix? | null | null | 238.233209 | YES | f0425d0d315f | |
ls680w0q9u | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What's with the mass N/A?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | TOBr4wCpyg8UhoQ7M1vT | public | contract | 1,716,225,749,697 | who-will-finish-in-the-points-at-th | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Who will finish in the points at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix? | null | null | 37.306674 | YES | 594270bb18a8 |
dd7tn9hnmkv | false | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "lmao apparently i am the biggest doomer on the site",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Savior of Plant | 0E0MJfPh7MxInsKSjmhV | public | contract | 1,716,225,752,426 | is-your-pdoom-currently-between-10 | SaviorofPlant | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | Is your P(Doom) currently between 10% and 90%? (By 2050) | null | null | null | null | null |
8gosvjf38w | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "SOMEBODY STOP THIS MADMAN",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | TDpO7Yrixrs81utsNvoP | public | contract | 1,716,225,826,409 | who-will-finish-in-the-top-6-places | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Who will finish in the top 6 places at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix? | null | null | 18.976112 | NO | 1ed3d70a92f5 |
7pg453yo3jj | false | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I mean I can't afford to make these markets anymore with the new fees. I don't understand the subsidy schemes well enough to understand if I'll actually recoup enough to make it worthwhile. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kevin Burke | TDpO7Yrixrs81utsNvoP | public | contract | 1,716,225,904,748 | who-will-finish-in-the-top-6-places | KevinBurke | Who will finish in the top 6 places at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix? | null | null | null | null | null | |
w6zge66t6t | false | ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "edited to clarify what happens if the vote count is challenged",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Zane | xkvfButiI1M4Y0u3mqtT | public | contract | 1,716,225,916,615 | will-there-be-any-upsets-in-the-202 | ZaneMiller | Will there be any upsets in the 2024 US Presidential election? | null | null | null | null | null | |
0i51yyhq78ep | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "7pg453yo3jj",
"label": "KevinBurke",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " When you cancel a market, do you get the market creation fees back?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | TDpO7Yrixrs81utsNvoP | public | contract | 1,716,226,002,761 | who-will-finish-in-the-top-6-places | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Who will finish in the top 6 places at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix? | 7pg453yo3jj | null | 18.976112 | NO | 1ed3d70a92f5 |
sgurdextpws | false | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The cost to create these markets increased by 10x. It costs about 30000 mana to create all of the markets for a given weekend. I can't afford that anymore.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kevin Burke | TOBr4wCpyg8UhoQ7M1vT | public | contract | 1,716,226,048,329 | who-will-finish-in-the-points-at-th | KevinBurke | Who will finish in the points at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix? | null | null | null | null | null | |
a3sddljr7cn | false | JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "\"@Bayesian",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " If Daniel receives less than he would have if he'd signed the very restrictive NDA, the market resolves NO, otherwise it resolves YES.\"",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Such a market is 0%. Companies pay extra to people who sign NDA on separation. That's just how it works, folks.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | gpt_news_headlines | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,226,110,901 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | gpt_news_headlines | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1 | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | null | 0.669866 | 3,071.350797 | YES | null |
lhyyybbgiv9 | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "sgurdextpws",
"label": "KevinBurke",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (copying from other thread) When you cancel a market, do you get the market creation fees back?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | TOBr4wCpyg8UhoQ7M1vT | public | contract | 1,716,226,244,569 | who-will-finish-in-the-points-at-th | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Who will finish in the points at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix? | sgurdextpws | null | 37.306674 | YES | 594270bb18a8 |
2fhpg5q7jpw | false | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lhyyybbgiv9",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Yes",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Genzy | TOBr4wCpyg8UhoQ7M1vT | public | contract | 1,716,226,528,738 | who-will-finish-in-the-points-at-th | Gen | Who will finish in the points at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix? | sgurdextpws | null | 857.193592 | YES | 594270bb18a8 | |
7277wqp8aj4 | false | yQJobnzBK3aJFoYH6jl8Ns1M2Di2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Hansi Flick?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Hans Koch | kXLcQQjBMTCF52IbQYnE | public | contract | 1,716,226,591,560 | who-will-be-the-next-coach-of-bayer | HansKoch | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL7hFX4KMfBUEsfWkR5M2v6T2xtOT8VaheyE7hqwyx6ryg5cw=s96-c | Who will be the next coach of Bayern Munich? | null | null | null | null | null |
a1sb105utd | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The meat and veggies are too dilute. Imagine filling a bowl with water and then sprinkling in a few crumb-sized pieces of meat and vegetables and calling it soup. that's basically what the ocean is.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Plasma Ballin' | KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0 | public | contract | 1,716,226,612,377 | good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr | PlasmaBallin | Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week? | null | null | 140.849078 | YES | c5225f313ab8 | |
wej4p12fstk | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "veokt0fn63l",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2",
"label": "jskf",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | qhBMnib4Qoaw4cEgrBOx | public | contract | 1,716,226,674,101 | kalshi-taylor-swift-holds-top-10-sp | Ziddletwix | [Kalshi] Taylor Swift holds top 10 spots on the Billboard Hot 100 with new album release? | veokt0fn63l | 0.99 | 177.629858 | YES | null | |
xw4p8zdq9k | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "2fhpg5q7jpw",
"label": "Gen",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Is it allowed for us to create markets, gain the desired info from the odds once it settles, then cancel them to get the refund, as long as we advertise as such in the market title?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | TOBr4wCpyg8UhoQ7M1vT | public | contract | 1,716,226,711,710 | who-will-finish-in-the-points-at-th | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Who will finish in the points at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix? | sgurdextpws | null | 37.306674 | YES | 594270bb18a8 |
ufd1i7hp21 | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F9lORQogImf.png?alt=media&token=de764de2-911d-4b23-8916-6aa264188ee5",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0 | public | contract | 1,716,226,783,081 | good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr | shankypanky | Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week? | a1sb105utd | null | 1,049.843861 | NO | 08463c5f4f91 | |
cw895qgj3ti | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xw4p8zdq9k",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " like this Yud market but over a much shorter time range",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": 0,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "iframe"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | TOBr4wCpyg8UhoQ7M1vT | public | contract | 1,716,226,822,590 | who-will-finish-in-the-points-at-th | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Who will finish in the points at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix? | sgurdextpws | null | 37.306674 | YES | 594270bb18a8 |
45feo5ejug4 | false | Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "sgurdextpws",
"label": "KevinBurke",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Makes sense. The pricing changes seen likely to kill all these markets that are just there for fun. They really need to pump up the rewards to fix this.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Enlil | TOBr4wCpyg8UhoQ7M1vT | public | contract | 1,716,226,897,260 | who-will-finish-in-the-points-at-th | Enlil | Who will finish in the points at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix? | sgurdextpws | null | 238.233209 | YES | f0425d0d315f | |
2o67nybfen | false | yQJobnzBK3aJFoYH6jl8Ns1M2Di2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": "",
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://media4.giphy.com/media/dJtooHVENs7Rl21zy9/giphy.gif?cid=5ff1f1caykjpj7xllhly4le89wrio713p983d34as3ucw4ck&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Hans Koch | vOjQCIOhA7nbhwBJMLdm | public | contract | 1,716,226,999,523 | borussia-dortmund-vs-real-madrid-ch | HansKoch | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL7hFX4KMfBUEsfWkR5M2v6T2xtOT8VaheyE7hqwyx6ryg5cw=s96-c | Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid ⚽|🏆 Champions League Final Prop Bets | null | null | 45.4163 | YES | 246384c6c97a |
5bjn7hwy2mb | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "OpenAI Superalignment Team is gone :(",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | i95HLfK9N6hu5H7orfNj | public | contract | 1,716,227,085,950 | will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027] | null | null | null | null | null |
isx5h7mp6ff | false | GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "mw9zlkzxwr",
"label": "PaulCrowley",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Zvi has the details on this; it's vested equity. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://thezvi.substack.com/i/144703296/the-non-disparagement-and-nda-clauses",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://thezvi.substack.com/i/144703296/the-non-disparagement-and-nda-clauses",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Paul Crowley | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,227,210,269 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | PaulCrowley | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | 7nk80xj73kv | 0.669866 | 185.00068 | YES | null |
p7tmlrag4w | false | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It's been hard to tell when it is really done. They mostly seem to have stopped dev and it's nearly out to 100% ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ernie | 4O3usoDemWG5B3tRpfFH | public | contract | 1,716,227,216,871 | will-i-prefer-the-new-midjourney-we | Ernie | Will I prefer the new Midjourney website to the discord interface, after 1 week? [subjective] | null | null | null | null | null | |
xevspts8zm | false | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I have an opinion on this. Please remember it's subjective so I'm just going with what I prefer ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ernie | 4O3usoDemWG5B3tRpfFH | public | contract | 1,716,227,252,794 | will-i-prefer-the-new-midjourney-we | Ernie | Will I prefer the new Midjourney website to the discord interface, after 1 week? [subjective] | null | null | null | null | null | |
uf36scs36t | false | JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "isx5h7mp6ff",
"label": "PaulCrowley",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Yeah, I've read that, and Sam said that clause was null/void. If the market is about that, then this market is 100% Sam wasn't lying. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " If it's just about Daniel getting less money because he didn't sign the NDA, than it's probably 0%. As mentioned, companies pay extra to people who sign the NDAs.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ideally you would clarify this.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | gpt_news_headlines | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,227,454,304 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | gpt_news_headlines | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1 | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | 7nk80xj73kv | 0.669866 | 3,071.350797 | YES | null |
bbo37kg3r4 | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2",
"label": "jacksonpolack",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " is close date intended for 2025? (2y)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | 2Uyp6Lywlfh9U3KYyKyY | public | contract | 1,716,227,469,784 | will-metas-new-decentralized-text-s-8eff63962625 | Ziddletwix | Will Threads be popular, in my experience over the next two years? | null | 0.093309 | 0 | NO | null | |
3q1h3jzsqwm | false | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://youtu.be/N9XKz9RBxGU",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://youtu.be/N9XKz9RBxGU",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Does this humble manner of speaking seem Trumpish. Please bet this up so I can bet it down",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ernie | RscL7G0kseDHjjoAe2eo | public | contract | 1,716,227,513,862 | will-elon-musk-endorse-trump-for-pr | Ernie | Will Elon Musk endorse Donald Trump for president? | null | 0.316367 | 1,221.935368 | NO | null | |
o6iyryn1oz | false | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xw4p8zdq9k",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I'm not really sure what you mean, Yud's market was setup like that because there is no incentive to bet on humanity being wiped out if you won't be there to collect. Afaik we would not support markets like this. You should not rely on N/A, but you can use it to cancel a market very shortly after creation if you have made an error and need to cancel.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "New incentives encourage fewer, higher volume markets. The feedback is great, we will see how things play out and for now I'm going to make a f1 market and see how the costs play out",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Genzy | TOBr4wCpyg8UhoQ7M1vT | public | contract | 1,716,227,578,482 | who-will-finish-in-the-points-at-th | Gen | Who will finish in the points at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix? | sgurdextpws | null | 857.193592 | YES | 594270bb18a8 | |
2lgzyokn3x5 | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2",
"label": "SimonGrayson",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " is this about the launch of spice (i.e. last week) or when cash withdrawals are enabled?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | kdLjrBZQZujphlJSZBiD | public | contract | 1,716,227,661,311 | if-manifold-announces-real-money-tr | Ziddletwix | If Manifold announces real money trading as part of their upcoming pivot, what will be true about it when it launches? | null | null | 55.322436 | YES | fd0795de4a93 | |
bepi6wh2q9k | false | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ideogram today, not official just testing ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FcZmQfhA3NR.png?alt=media&token=7dff8c37-82be-4b17-aa66-c44cdb321c29",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ernie | qzN2D5VfbhiyUljBbRJX | public | contract | 1,716,227,683,814 | a-public-ai-generator-can-correctly-0256773c71a1 | Ernie | A public AI generator can correctly make images of complex 3d object stacking, Jun 1 2024 | null | 0.176026 | 88.125109 | YES | null | |
hr7ngna9ne | false | om3kp3h9kAUt4xk4wdK8egPBqfB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Outcome: The court sends it back to the lower courts for more fact-finding",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Will | mY8eR7W0O3iALtUT66JN | public | contract | 1,716,227,703,219 | how-will-the-supreme-court-decide-t | BananaMuffin | How will the Supreme Court split in the Trump immunity case? | null | null | 977.350266 | YES | ac040e1ed0d1 | |
dmwi51y91yb | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Didn't you already do this one?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-652d3b2f163f?r=VGhlQWxsTWVtZWluZ0V5ZQ",
"target": "_self"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-652d3b2f163f?r=VGhlQWxsTWVtZWluZ0V5ZQ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I heard that you might be able to get the creation cost back if you N/A, but I don't know if that's possible for polls",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | K6v36gVBGAFSSKnkNZEH | public | contract | 1,716,227,788,905 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-635a0eccb7f7 | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Yann Le Cun? | null | null | null | null | null |
tlgn4si5rug | false | imE3dYtl57flbp54JLX6cfvKwR63 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "c18xl0eox18",
"label": "perlso59320",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " that's the Next JS default 404 page",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Adam B | JzLGzwrROhzmSFQ6uv8D | public | contract | 1,716,227,816,060 | will-openai-release-a-competitor-to | jellyberg | Will OpenAI release a competitor to Google Search before 2025? | c18xl0eox18 | null | null | null | null | |
2xfk8ky4ulf | false | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "2lgzyokn3x5",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Different Simon!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Simon Grayson | kdLjrBZQZujphlJSZBiD | public | contract | 1,716,228,021,596 | if-manifold-announces-real-money-tr | SimonGrayson | If Manifold announces real money trading as part of their upcoming pivot, what will be true about it when it launches? | 2lgzyokn3x5 | null | null | null | null | |
wkgu8fxiem | false | GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "a3sddljr7cn",
"label": "gpt_news_headlines",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " There is no confusion about this and I don't understand why you're still FUD spreading after apologising earlier. Daniel was told that as a result of not signing the insane non-disparagement agreement, he would be stripped of vested equity. It now seems plausible that won't happen. This is a market on whether he gets back the equity that a normal departing employee would get.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Paul Crowley | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,228,245,132 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | PaulCrowley | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | a3sddljr7cn | 0.606883 | 185.00068 | YES | null |
u5w8n56g96m | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "dmwi51y91yb",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " oops...",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | K6v36gVBGAFSSKnkNZEH | public | contract | 1,716,228,413,287 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-635a0eccb7f7 | strutheo | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Yann Le Cun? | dmwi51y91yb | null | null | null | null | |
3v1h6fu8d78 | false | GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "uf36scs36t",
"label": "gpt_news_headlines",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " \"Sam said that clause was null/void.\" this seriously misrepresents what Sam said. I recommend people reading here get their understanding of this situation from Kelsey and Zvi, not comments from this person.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Paul Crowley | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,228,576,999 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | PaulCrowley | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | 7nk80xj73kv | 0.606883 | 185.00068 | YES | null |
4v2r3805pdi | false | INF6kpcRCldtxUKD54YVHlUcbw92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "scopg9icq9",
"label": "Stralor",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " thank you!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Casey The Grip Lord | L70Biia1KU3Sdi2tqffY | public | contract | 1,716,228,583,348 | what-will-manifold-think-the-best-b | CaseyTheGripLord | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ1E9ECVvoorolYIyCKfr_-sNB-49YO-HpqFJHbM9IzTPIYiZeD=s96-c | What will Manifold think the best bedtime is? | tebc7pvw3sg | null | 311.523614 | NO | 63f8d8325f99 |
2i2p81r5ewq | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "2xfk8ky4ulf",
"label": "SimonGrayson",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " lol my bad! ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | kdLjrBZQZujphlJSZBiD | public | contract | 1,716,228,597,167 | if-manifold-announces-real-money-tr | Ziddletwix | If Manifold announces real money trading as part of their upcoming pivot, what will be true about it when it launches? | 2lgzyokn3x5 | null | 55.322436 | YES | fd0795de4a93 | |
kyv8lymcw1 | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "85nJB0gHwPMXmUtBO72YrwlNDI22",
"label": "Simon74fe",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " is this about the launch of spice (i.e. last week) or when cash withdrawals are enabled?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | kdLjrBZQZujphlJSZBiD | public | contract | 1,716,228,610,336 | if-manifold-announces-real-money-tr | Ziddletwix | If Manifold announces real money trading as part of their upcoming pivot, what will be true about it when it launches? | null | null | 55.322436 | YES | fd0795de4a93 | |
peovtu39pb | false | JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "3v1h6fu8d78",
"label": "PaulCrowley",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Ok, I can roll with that. But can you at least clarify whether it's about that clause or about something else? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | gpt_news_headlines | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,228,751,612 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | gpt_news_headlines | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1 | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | 7nk80xj73kv | 0.606883 | 3,071.350797 | YES | null |
tl8oybdj3 | false | JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "3v1h6fu8d78",
"label": "PaulCrowley",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Spefically is the market about this clause",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FbA9fDs02af.png?alt=media&token=e9fa3447-dda7-4b09-89b3-89a6cc8f398b",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Or is it about something else?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | gpt_news_headlines | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,228,944,015 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | gpt_news_headlines | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1 | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | 7nk80xj73kv | 0.606883 | 3,071.350797 | YES | null |
yalcrb8a6w | false | EKnSYyz71XadjA1gChNwxubpp6J3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think this is >99% likely, so I'm basically treating this as a bond.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "1 / (1 + 4.4% US 5y treasury rate) ^ 4.5y to resolution * (1 - 30% probability of Manifold paying interest on shares in a market) + 30% probability of Manifold paying interest on shares in a market = 88%",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "So, 88% should be roughly the max price that people should be willing to buy this at.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Sources:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/will-manifold-pay-interest",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/will-manifold-pay-interest",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jonas Vollmer | WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63 | public | contract | 1,716,228,978,222 | will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500 | JonasVollmer | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqZTipfMh8me9ID8kOWIN_e0cMRyQ68DN8Ikyk2p3E=s96-c | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin? | null | 0.87 | 211,552.097448 | YES | null |
t4x20nps0zg | false | EKnSYyz71XadjA1gChNwxubpp6J3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Given the uncertainty in various factors and the current cap of 88%, I'm cancelling my 86% limit order",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jonas Vollmer | WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63 | public | contract | 1,716,229,114,238 | will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500 | JonasVollmer | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqZTipfMh8me9ID8kOWIN_e0cMRyQ68DN8Ikyk2p3E=s96-c | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin? | yalcrb8a6w | 0.87 | 211,552.097448 | YES | null |
z8baijzz34q | false | JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "wkgu8fxiem",
"label": "PaulCrowley",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Well, there is the issue of the tender offers as per the article you linked to, right? He might have to sell via secondary markets.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | gpt_news_headlines | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,229,133,011 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | gpt_news_headlines | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1 | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | a3sddljr7cn | 0.606883 | 3,071.350797 | YES | null |
7inpr7isait | false | GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "tl8oybdj3",
"label": "gpt_news_headlines",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Yes, about that clause.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Paul Crowley | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,229,292,986 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | PaulCrowley | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | 7nk80xj73kv | 0.606883 | 185.00068 | YES | null |
duiku8len2f | false | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "d1fnwmb95sm",
"label": "ShadowyZephyr",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Yes, but couple are also in the 80% range. And just a few of those are enough to bring the overall prob quite high even under high correlations...",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Martin Modrák | xkvfButiI1M4Y0u3mqtT | public | contract | 1,716,229,400,761 | will-there-be-any-upsets-in-the-202 | MartinModrak | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c | Will there be any upsets in the 2024 US Presidential election? | die64lbouum | 0.55 | 1,052.310824 | YES | null |
h6veoml2uhw | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "RPkuTOpS6XfWTocR88anDruvXaU2",
"label": "Jeromee03c",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " resolves NO. the current season of SNL just had its finale, and Troye Sivan did not perform as a musical guest or host. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | LlaUA4aPThKwcfabmGGj | public | contract | 1,716,229,433,872 | will-troye-sivan-host-a-snl-episode | Ziddletwix | Will Troye Sivan host a SNL episode or perform as a musical guest on the current season of SNL | null | 0.16 | 1,050.828494 | NO | null | |
jy0n5p3pz4 | false | GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "z8baijzz34q",
"label": "gpt_news_headlines",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Unfortunately the tender offer thing is harder to make a market about that resolves any time soon. My guess is that if Sam appears to make Daniel whole now, he will not then take the bad publicity in order to punish him later.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Paul Crowley | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,229,468,921 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | PaulCrowley | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | a3sddljr7cn | 0.606883 | 185.00068 | YES | null |
pjfqhrqasa | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "after eilish, there were 7 more female guests, bringing the total to 12. there were only 5 men (counting vampire weekend), so at most 8. not close, resolves YES",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | bAo2GRtLNRTb1Z4LsNSV | public | contract | 1,716,229,611,052 | will-snl-have-more-female-musical-g | Ziddletwix | Will SNL have more female musical guests than male in season 49? | null | null | null | null | null | |
fnj9ht5duy | false | JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "jy0n5p3pz4",
"label": "PaulCrowley",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Makes sense. Honestly, I have to say, I've never heard of a company clawing back vested equity before. The idea seems totally repulsive. Sam said, and I quote:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "we have never clawed back anyone's vested equity, nor will we do that if people do not sign a separation agreement (or don't agree to a non-disparagement agreement). vested equity is vested equity, full stop.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'd really love to hear your thoughts on why you think this could possibly not apply to Daniel.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | gpt_news_headlines | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,229,666,815 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | gpt_news_headlines | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1 | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | a3sddljr7cn | 0.606883 | 3,071.350797 | YES | null |
o4n4cumjb5 | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "pjfqhrqasa",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturday_Night_Live_season_49",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturday_Night_Live_season_49",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " source",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": false,
"id": "dce89b3b-c495-43b7-ae9e-fdde2e859e15",
"image": "https://en.wikipedia.org/static/images/icons/wikipedia.png",
"inputKey": "comment bAo2GRtLNRTb1Z4LsNSVcomment pjfqhrqasa",
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": "Saturday Night Live season 49 - Wikipedia",
"tweetId": null,
"url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturday_Night_Live_season_49"
},
"content": null,
"type": "linkPreview"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | bAo2GRtLNRTb1Z4LsNSV | public | contract | 1,716,229,730,558 | will-snl-have-more-female-musical-g | Ziddletwix | Will SNL have more female musical guests than male in season 49? | pjfqhrqasa | 0.884927 | 1,211.092181 | YES | null | |
wr1zzqr48hh | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Dortmund is a park the bus kind of team. Unless Real Madrid adapts to their gameplay, they will not be able to get a straightforward win here.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Predictor 🔥 | vOjQCIOhA7nbhwBJMLdm | public | contract | 1,716,229,848,116 | borussia-dortmund-vs-real-madrid-ch | Predictor | Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid ⚽|🏆 Champions League Final Prop Bets | null | null | 93.353708 | YES | cea09fa5bbcb | |
xejkeq0stgd | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "CrPGjKJkCMd2MxE2spQ6aWMJh2P2",
"label": "oh",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " season finale just aired. all remaining resolves NO, can't find any evidence of these inmpersonations. (they reference openAI once in the finale, but no mention of sam). i know creator AFK wants mods to resolve so will ping.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | 8jCMzw7HVkuup0CvqHEr | public | contract | 1,716,229,873,268 | who-will-be-impersonated-on-snl-sea | Ziddletwix | Who will be impersonated on SNL Season 49? | null | null | 97.194531 | NO | f1dc8f872f1d | |
uh0l9mx3js | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "wr1zzqr48hh",
"label": "Predictor",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " i assume this fits with what you're saying, but a draw -> win on pens still counts for the \"team wins\" options? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\"",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "Team xxx ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "wins\" is for the entire match (including extra time & penalty shoot-out if applicable)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "bulletList"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(Although that's probably what you're saying, just that they may be able to squeak out a win, in which case ignore me)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | vOjQCIOhA7nbhwBJMLdm | public | contract | 1,716,230,008,116 | borussia-dortmund-vs-real-madrid-ch | Ziddletwix | Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid ⚽|🏆 Champions League Final Prop Bets | wr1zzqr48hh | null | 53.770904 | NO | 02e7313d2b89 | |
0cmjn3tj6k2w | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "uh0l9mx3js",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " They for sure will squeak out a win.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Predictor 🔥 | vOjQCIOhA7nbhwBJMLdm | public | contract | 1,716,230,068,640 | borussia-dortmund-vs-real-madrid-ch | Predictor | Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid ⚽|🏆 Champions League Final Prop Bets | wr1zzqr48hh | null | 93.353708 | YES | cea09fa5bbcb | |
62vojga7wnv | false | vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "Bpx9dC8Xp4z5QdUbb8cd",
"label": "DanielEth",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I think the greater population understands instinctively that \"1 life = 1 life\" utilitarianism as advocated by hardcore EA members just does not work. No one wants to be donating to an ineffective charity, but local helping and advocacy is not ineffective - even if it's less lives per $, it has compounding effects on that community in the future, and inspires people to do good.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It seems like EA has moved from this balanced perspective to the longtermism, where they just make up probabilities and use it to justify funding organizations that aren't even effective in the first place. This will prevent the public from associating with it, along with the FTX scandal. I could see it getting bigger, but not mainstream.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | shadowyzephyr | 9z0A0ZqDwcjXfJhiKh8I | public | contract | 1,716,230,092,483 | will-the-effective-altruism-movemen-01f70cdf45f6 | ShadowyZephyr | Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)? | Bpx9dC8Xp4z5QdUbb8cd | 0.624926 | 125.306497 | NO | null | |
hlr4mii6cr | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "asu9bw4kq6g",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2",
"label": "AmmonLam",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | i2FeTRySBFiOOx5DbvxF | public | contract | 1,716,230,194,448 | will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-bfd139eab4cd | Ziddletwix | Will any of the videos uploaded to Lex Fridman's YouTube channel in May 2024 surpass 300k views? | asu9bw4kq6g | 0.99 | 1,016.325628 | YES | null | |
6bhgbz1mgmd | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "85nJB0gHwPMXmUtBO72YrwlNDI22",
"label": "Simon74fe",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " this resolves YES. people can already convert spice to mana ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | rG2Eyq2jL6HBFmdTqohL | public | contract | 1,716,230,290,654 | what-will-spice-be-convertible-to | Ziddletwix | What will spice be convertible to? | null | null | 414.894792 | YES | 3a54a5a7d98d | |
f0c3jyi2ff | false | GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "fnj9ht5duy",
"label": "gpt_news_headlines",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Sounds like you should buy YES!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Paul Crowley | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,230,532,827 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | PaulCrowley | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | a3sddljr7cn | 0.65 | 185.00068 | YES | null |
7338t2ev3y | false | GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I blocked ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2",
"label": "gpt_news_headlines",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", whose comments seemed to be designed to sow confusion.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Paul Crowley | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,230,616,124 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | PaulCrowley | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | null | 0.65 | 185.00068 | YES | null |
mfe8sbf65ec | false | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "sqcenuq7og",
"label": "justadude",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Arguable it was the only decision to make, and the US government profited in the end. It's about public perception when everyone was struggling, less about the facts of the bailout.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Haws | 9QsfOW232lNnFj6ASRrZ | public | contract | 1,716,230,652,846 | what-is-worse-than-financial-crimes | Haws | What is worse than committing a financial crime? | sqcenuq7og | null | null | null | null | |
227qy614iceh | false | y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "7338t2ev3y",
"label": "PaulCrowley",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " This was either intentional by them, or they were unusually confused themselves. So I think it's fair.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jonathan Mannhart | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,230,699,219 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | JonathanMannhart | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | 7338t2ev3y | 0.65 | 121.503216 | YES | null |
n20rkoo0udr | false | GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "227qy614iceh",
"label": "JonathanMannhart",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I'm told they are always like this.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Paul Crowley | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,230,736,124 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | PaulCrowley | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | 7338t2ev3y | 0.65 | 185.00068 | YES | null |
swvogyiub7i | false | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "RoEn5ij0gzgDq6T2BosFwqJuw3F3",
"label": "Klokkern",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The Official | 8iDSllpEJXSniNETb7SZ | public | contract | 1,716,231,403,869 | chelsea-will-finish-in-the-top-10-o | 10thOfficial | Chelsea will finish in the top 10 of the Premier League 23/24 season | tejno7rq3q | 0.99 | 126.26997 | YES | null | |
86w7azl1o9b | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | slIrdK9clHNBPED8egtP | public | contract | 1,716,231,482,505 | will-a-third-boeing-whistleblower-d-b98d2b4090c0 | strutheo | Will a third Boeing whistleblower die before the end of Valentine's Day 2025? | null | null | null | null | null | |
51hhfaw3w7q | false | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "k6hhg13l5h",
"label": "PaulCrowley",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " It would be much easier and simpler if you clarified the close date within the title and/or description as the close time is not always seen by users as a \"deadline\" for a market unless it is specified.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | SirCryptomind | WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z | public | contract | 1,716,231,560,592 | will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the | SirCryptomind | Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA? | ic7n3t6b7b | null | null | null | null | |
ckwlp5h3vnu | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": "",
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://media2.giphy.com/media/3otPoHPEfzbGztJsHu/giphy.gif?cid=5ff1f1caqbwhwncbeuvcb60aiqgommc6utcie5dn77p1cr0w&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | w4iISDJLRKYCE7pDRE6Q | public | contract | 1,716,231,711,129 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-45588bedf3d5 | strutheo | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Mr Garrison? | null | null | null | null | null | |
s28q9f9gdy | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "pp market?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,716,232,107,036 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | strutheo | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | 0.950024 | 4,464.485173 | YES | null | |
taku5bmc9yp | false | wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "@mods please resolve",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Charlie Bauer | aAB7BHdXmsDIVQvdYlEt | public | contract | 1,716,232,180,646 | will-alex-mooney-win-the-2024-senat | CharlieBauer | Will Alex Mooney win the 2024 senate seat in West Virginia? | cp93n5qilsw | 0.146404 | 59.286174 | NO | null | |
t5je9ykkw8 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FiRx7FtcVsm.webp?alt=media&token=2a0cb1da-6a20-4c8c-bc63-eb367c2b23ec",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | PIe3eFUjBXSk975Va9Sx | public | contract | 1,716,232,270,209 | which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-ae | strutheo | Which Hogwarts house do you sort Aella into? | null | null | null | null | null | |
bhqmqspsjqr | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1792629142141177890",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1792629142141177890",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1792572030526886279",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1792572030526886279",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Christopher Randles | WomQzyY0pMqmNSqK0i1y | public | contract | 1,716,232,353,244 | will-elon-musk-make-2-or-more-tweet-2098e9f26b9a | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | Will Elon Musk make 2 or more Tweeter(X) posts on May 20, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET | null | 0.918739 | 1,128.473627 | YES | null |
nz33oubct8k | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FYQo-X1DcJJ.webp?alt=media&token=fa88ed62-bf27-4252-ab65-74aad5fe6a1d",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | zHWW8cSATKIEnXghWpwW | public | contract | 1,716,232,369,095 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-489ebfccad47 | strutheo | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Elon Musk? | null | null | null | null | null | |
qjbwkgy97h | false | enbVD8Sbm8bqKa2Kw7bYe0lG6he2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This job posting is seeking a Search Engine Optimization (SEO) Executive with 2+ years of experience to manage all SEO activities such as content strategy, link building, and keyword strategy. Key responsibilities include tracking website analytics and pay-per-click initiatives, optimizing landing pages, assisting in digital marketing strategies, and measuring performance using analytics tools. The ideal candidate must have strong SEO and SEM skills as well as experience in paid marketing and knowledge of Google tools and algorithm updates.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100078290056995",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100078290056995",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://vimeo.com/seo22exprte",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://vimeo.com/seo22exprte",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.pinterest.com/seo22exprte/_created/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.pinterest.com/seo22exprte/_created/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.youtube.com/@seo22exprte",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.youtube.com/@seo22exprte",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.twitch.tv/seo22exprte/about",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.twitch.tv/seo22exprte/about",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.reddit.com/user/Jumpy-Improvement285/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.reddit.com/user/Jumpy-Improvement285/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | SH SANTO | 0L981aL2uOI17I12f1hV | public | contract | 1,716,232,639,770 | was-there-foul-play-involved-in-the-921600f3aeff | seo22exprte | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK6VpDvU0YXn1djdNBf6YEkPFk_vItNNyNZs779a4IkOgI3xRs=s96-c | Was there foul play involved in the crash of Ebrahim Raisi? | null | null | null | null | null |
qrraq31c4fi | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1792629142141177890",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1792629142141177890",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Starship Flight 4 in about 2 weeks. Primary goal is getting through max reentry heating. Worth noting that no one has ever succeeded in creating a fully reusable heat shield. Shuttle required >6 months of rework.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "20 May",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Will that move 5 June from 9%?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Christopher Randles | 2UzgopRizl6MxAZTObMW | public | contract | 1,716,232,707,536 | when-will-there-be-a-4th-starship-l-e57470f27683 | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | When will there be a 4th Starship launch? | null | null | 417.034973 | NO | 9f5e60a57856 |
gxeqkflvlk5 | false | em5cYfHRh1b5qu1hgpfZiNqOELr2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "7277wqp8aj4",
"label": "HansKoch",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Well, his full name would be Hans-Dieter Flick",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Gideon | kXLcQQjBMTCF52IbQYnE | public | contract | 1,716,233,102,158 | who-will-be-the-next-coach-of-bayer | Gideon37 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJgWS0P6It5V1UWwE65A1u9nwHfxpp1TvnxyGgqr54x=s96-c | Who will be the next coach of Bayern Munich? | 7277wqp8aj4 | null | 2,007.623091 | NO | 0c3c3e5faf26 |
9ztvrvbjlxq | false | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "fev2qerbuzi",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I think it is illustrative to compare the easiest problems we as humans cannot solve completely from the armchair with the hardest problems we can solve reasonably well through directed experimentation. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Some of the easy problems we cannot solve fully are things like 3-body problem or the Collatz conjecture or fluid dynamics (Navier-Stokes equations). But in all of those cases, we can run experiments/simulations to figure out good practical answers. But those experiments/simulations are quite costly compared to how simple the problem looks. In particular, there is little room for shortcuts, you just have to do the number crunching. Alternatively you could try to rely on some abstractions, but all abstractions leak, so you'll still need to test whether the abstract solution works in practice (fluid dynamics are a good example here - we can do a decent job of simulating and designing for fluids, but quite often real-world implementation hits substantial hiccups).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Now compare the complexity of the previous problems to the complexity of an artificial general intelligence (which we postulate is within human reach). Why should we expect the AI to have substantially narrower gap between \"completely solvable by just thinking\" and \"solvable, but with extensive experimentation\"?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "For similar reasons, I don't really buy the possibility of AI just self-inspecting and improving without substantial (and thus costly) experimentation. The AI is almost by definition a complex system and predicting all possible interactions within that system is going to be extremely difficult.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "On another note - you also seem to assume that the first AGI to be developed will be effectively a single entity, but I don't see why people (or the AI itself) wouldn't run multiple copies. And it is seems likely to me that multiple copies of the same AI won't act as a single actor and instead would develop their histories, relationships and agendas (multiple copies of a single software with different options/setup/tasks is just an extremely normal thing to have).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Martin Modrák | pYt4bP3lsTeazpY0rNSl | public | contract | 1,716,233,179,190 | bayesian-change-my-mind-megamarket | MartinModrak | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c | Change My Mind - @Bayesian's Megamarket | afxq2u2if6a | null | 5.032112 | YES | b7d9c4a65446 |
wgyvknvq0jm | false | XmAUlR95VBW12Fee6lES6eY9CRC3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What does \"Iran\" mean? Does one official count?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Certainty of Victory | RtTPZ1fIeRBQWnfuht9v | public | contract | 1,716,233,183,935 | will-iran-accuse-israel-of-causing | CertaintyOfVictory | Will Iran accuse Israel of causing the Iranian president's helicopter to crash? | null | null | null | null | null | |
lsm17u9364p | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "1h9xntczda6i",
"label": "PlasmaBallin",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " wait why do furries have expertise?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | LJzMjzxI3hgPe4tAwGJP | public | contract | 1,716,233,337,484 | which-political-party-would-you-vot | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Which political party would you vote for? | nxqlodfhn1o | null | null | null | null |
gi9jq5vgjaq | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "PuRCWFIi6gxMijOuRHPo",
"label": "/strutheo/will-the-international-criminal-cou-3572841109f7",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "contract-mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | 5NIRh4RcEgq5XOHuZ0Il | public | contract | 1,716,233,382,313 | will-the-international-criminal-cou-2197ccca6c2d | strutheo | Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of July 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
q9fl8hl6nid | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "m8ZR0Zc3tAe0Ar6SURm0hAJgPjw2",
"label": "kyambvthi",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " this can resolve, 50% to the two tied leaders (I asssume) ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | cmhbMHdNNv05vPboyOLY | public | contract | 1,716,233,584,892 | who-will-be-the-top-scorer-in-the-u | Ziddletwix | Who will be the top scorer in the UCL 2023/24 campaign | null | null | null | null | null | |
sdg87ac84s | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "kmi0blxkrdm",
"label": "jack",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " There will be a \"Notice to Mariners\" (NOTMAR) that specifies a keep out zone. Going outside that would be a mishap. Going outside that and the FTS not being triggered would be a mishap. FTS triggering but not resulting in a RUD would likely also be a mishap. I think. Haven't found NOTMAR or a map of area specified, sorry.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Christopher Randles | v2YvLhpRPyrQ7hfbeB0R | public | contract | 1,716,234,024,515 | will-spacexs-4th-starship-test-flig | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | Will SpaceX’s 4th Starship test flight have a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“? | yqopv26pmgj | null | null | null | null |
xlyxdqcnmhb | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "IinL5ns1rXND5HQu50OoGRCPsPn2",
"label": "B068b",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " resolves YES for under/below 40, NO to the others. season is over, he scored 38 goals. (fewer if creator meant just PL, but from his \"31 goals as of creating\" looks like it's across all competitions. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.transfermarkt.us/erling-haaland/leistungsdaten/spieler/418560/saison/2023/plus/1#gesamt",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.transfermarkt.us/erling-haaland/leistungsdaten/spieler/418560/saison/2023/plus/1#gesamt",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | xsELntIocYIEfO1l86XR | public | contract | 1,716,234,071,055 | goals-erling-haaland-will-end-off-t | Ziddletwix | Goals Erling Haaland will end off the 23/24 Season with? | null | null | 253.237506 | NO | dfa0ce1c9175 | |
ls7orqq8q3 | false | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "In the sample of articles and podcasts I reviewed, I'd describe the journalistic response to Google I/O as vaguely positive. The reaction was not \"mixed\", nor was it precisely negative. Nevertheless, I resolved to 30% rather than to a straight NO because of this nagging sense that those journalists who were being frank were underwhelmed, which is a little more negative a response than I felt comfortable ignoring. The commentator consensus: OpenAI continues to be better at influencing public opinion, even though no one had contributed more to the space of AI than Google, and indeed no one is better positioned in the race for useful AI (or AGI for that matter) than Google.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Archibald Crone | Ekp84es7vNvDDX8Z9PZS | public | contract | 1,716,234,075,670 | -short-fuse-google-io-livestream-pr | BlueDragon | [ short fuse ] Google I/O Keynote Prop Bets [May 14 10 AM PT] | null | null | null | null | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.