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... | SirCryptomind | up9CezzjsRVNe7QLqd6n | public | contract | 1,716,843,165,109 | the-chargeoff-rate-on-us-credit-car | SirCryptomind | The charge-off rate on US credit cards will be above 4.5% in Q1 2024 | hgal9ad63rk | null | null | null | null | |
9sv4qd9ffoc | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
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... | Jonathan Ray | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,843,312,118 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | JonathanRay | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 28,407.958766 | YES | 37f0747697e3 | |
0a85u3ua5op | false | nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2 | {
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},... | Gaz Downright | i95HLfK9N6hu5H7orfNj | public | contract | 1,716,843,475,700 | will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r | GazDownright | Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027] | 5bjn7hwy2mb | null | null | null | null | |
47rtlkgv9jx | false | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | {
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{
"attrs": null,
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{
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"text": "Creator is inactive, but market resolves by opinion? Resolving all to N/A.",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
... | Gabrielle | LfG9PAW6pKNWpGTGPdya | public | contract | 1,716,843,479,422 | biggest-bop | Gabrielle | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | BIGGEST BOP??? | null | null | null | null | null |
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],
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... | Gabrielle | 4Eo4JrCWykVwYeivznwN | public | contract | 1,716,843,600,301 | if-iran-strikes-israel-againwithin | Gabrielle | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | If Iran strikes Israel again(within a month) will Israel strike back within 72 hours | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "I should N/A this soon if there's no way to know. I thought there was data about likes like the unix ts it was on but it seems like that is not the cas... | Bayesian | Ahc7Li6SVVPJNfIiYmi5 | public | contract | 1,716,843,615,107 | which-manifold-user-will-get-the-mo-9d7e57bd7b7c | Bayesian | Which Manifold User will get the most market likes in 2024? | null | null | 77.798481 | YES | 4669caa4135f | |
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{
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3nzgs3dfn4w | false | nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2 | {
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{
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"text": "The kind of market this is, as outlined in the description, could be recreated as one lf the standard markets types for long term forecasting, no?",
... | Gaz Downright | i95HLfK9N6hu5H7orfNj | public | contract | 1,716,843,684,320 | will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r | GazDownright | Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027] | null | null | null | null | null | |
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... | Jonathan Ray | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,843,704,750 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | JonathanRay | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 28,407.958766 | YES | 37f0747697e3 | |
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"text": "AAPL opened on 12/27 at 192.49, AAPL closed on 12/29 at 192.53, the market was closed on 12/30-1/1, so I think the answer is YES",
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],... | Gaz Downright | 9cSfPM4Yg1vkpbSuAou4 | public | contract | 1,716,843,819,265 | if-ai-wipes-out-humanity-will-every | GazDownright | If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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... | Bubbles | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,844,064,817 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Lorelai | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 1,544.244817 | YES | 59a364c55d2c | |
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"text": "Does by next year mean by Jan 1st 2025 or by Dec 31 2025 ? Also, does he need to be the first or just to achieve it ? Like if OpenAI creates AGI but th... | Mich | tqKZD3jRNXzEqiIRUsxC | public | contract | 1,716,844,871,143 | will-xelon-musk-achieve-agi-by-next | Mich | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | Will X/Elon Musk achieve AGI by next year? | null | null | null | null | null |
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} | Zac Parker | KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm | public | contract | 1,716,844,995,213 | will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24 | ZacParker | Will I eat ass in the next 24...? | null | null | 10.536991 | YES | 85993d927a47 | |
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... | EBurk | hsVhlV2SOCRPAJwoXzzG | public | contract | 1,716,845,387,729 | what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-mo-ec37977c76d6 | EBurk | What will be true of the xkcd on Monday, May 27th, 2024? | null | null | 131.163683 | NO | 6c2b79a834cc | |
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... | stefanie | 6wNVIDCKlURgt5whhVgv | public | contract | 1,716,845,546,373 | info-that-the-board-pushed-out-altm | shankypanky | Info that the board pushed out Altman from OpenAI due to personal, non-AI issues, by mid 2024 | null | 0.236398 | 738.694692 | YES | null | |
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} | MollTheCoder | ia45vPl7XunfCIclcIfY | public | contract | 1,716,846,101,137 | are-llms-capable-of-reaching-agi | MollTheCoder | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLpEVFCfGACsuM3opvPe4ewcy8-iVkAJDqtM4lTNdJPcA9l_w=s96-c | Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI? | null | null | null | null | null |
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],
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],... | IY | f6zkdXj9ZbuGNXLNCQYO | public | contract | 1,716,846,232,170 | will-there-be-a-picture-of-bald-kat | vitamind | Will there be a picture of bald Kate Middleton after her chemotherapy treatment? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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... | Ian Philips | FmKdvh4eeLkW00WBHlyj | public | contract | 1,716,846,298,973 | how-long-will-this-gourd-last | ian | How long will this gourd last? | xq2h9x2pnyf | null | 35.215887 | NO | 18459a7e6277 | |
lc0415kxk9a | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
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"text": "ultimately I don't really agree with the term \"vile\" but I'll assume I have a general understanding of what you mean by that. I double-checked the de... | stefanie | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,846,807,369 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | shankypanky | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | g9bidp74llh | null | 321.10921 | NO | cae724d28376 | |
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... | stefanie | yp03JOi33SIL0JAnZEqP | public | contract | 1,716,846,886,518 | which-youtube-channels-will-release-8f33bfdf1874 | shankypanky | ▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | ux8qfx4j7or | null | null | null | null | |
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... | Ryan | V67cprH6fbyEbfRZ9U5Y | public | contract | 1,716,847,003,329 | if-ilya-sutskever-takes-on-a-new-ro | Ryannn | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp78IvvtirtxY_EItV8oLcmfhj2ZlagTF4t7yrhnoB0=s96-c | If Ilya Sutskever takes on a new role in 2024, where will it be? | 9cg8x1bym76 | null | 327.120795 | YES | eca76098b9a2 |
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... | Ryan | V67cprH6fbyEbfRZ9U5Y | public | contract | 1,716,847,029,089 | if-ilya-sutskever-takes-on-a-new-ro | Ryannn | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp78IvvtirtxY_EItV8oLcmfhj2ZlagTF4t7yrhnoB0=s96-c | If Ilya Sutskever takes on a new role in 2024, where will it be? | 9cg8x1bym76 | null | 327.120795 | YES | eca76098b9a2 |
0zp2qenrbyec | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
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... | Jonathan Ray | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,847,138,828 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | JonathanRay | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 28,407.958766 | YES | 37f0747697e3 | |
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"type": "d... | Aaron Wang | JP8OxnCDYr2OnDjJXesH | public | contract | 1,716,847,226,922 | will-i-successfully-bash-any-geo-in | AaronWang | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKPrqeRIVE49B8EDc02Xjp-RcE2_vVFy3dKO_hR8LBKKQ=s96-c | Will I successfully bash any geo in the 2024-2025 TST cycle? | null | null | null | null | null |
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... | chris (strutheo) | yp03JOi33SIL0JAnZEqP | public | contract | 1,716,847,459,128 | which-youtube-channels-will-release-8f33bfdf1874 | strutheo | ▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | ux8qfx4j7or | null | 2,094.538461 | YES | 449e5906b2c7 | |
x4azedzyqj | false | OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752 | {
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... | Bubbles | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,847,619,179 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Lorelai | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 1,544.244817 | YES | 59a364c55d2c | |
upc2vbednuo | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
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"text": "just a heads up everyone that when you bet these types of markets to 1%/99% (like here and the tweet market) no one else can add their vote in that dir... | stefanie | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,847,946,932 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | shankypanky | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | null | null | 321.10921 | NO | cae724d28376 | |
pbxkgxekiam | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
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"type": ... | RemNi | otIwVPvCPLaNkYPw1DMB | public | contract | 1,716,848,030,083 | is-the-brain-quantum | RemNi | Is the brain quantum? | null | null | null | null | null | |
h3pyjbzu0m | false | VknQ6mzz56To01rKhPfTUSn5M3y1 | {
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... | dezzao | WHMCg9pljQ3m1dihhfVG | public | contract | 1,716,848,037,277 | will-tether-collapse-before-2033 | dezzao | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKR6UF82F2po0ql1gG5_xmb0x_Stl7ygs0UkP7CjNTI=s96-c | Will tether collapse before 2033? | RSjzxUOnVXtyN30pxAOQ | 0.326437 | 87.003053 | YES | null |
m8wsjrq3gt | false | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | {
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}... | Ian Philips | gAP7GeQcilJakRbGnAta | public | contract | 1,716,848,049,266 | will-manifold-markets-still-have-ac | ian | Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025? | QQrOtMRGcio44FJfbPk1 | null | null | null | null | |
u6gorwtps6 | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
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{... | RemNi | otIwVPvCPLaNkYPw1DMB | public | contract | 1,716,848,085,178 | is-the-brain-quantum | RemNi | Is the brain quantum? | pbxkgxekiam | null | null | null | null |
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