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Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "np8aMwwuJcW0FeQ2g5iFWlENQHk1", "label": "AlexZhao", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " it's #52. so this can resolve to 50 as the closest option", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FiME0zrIXMk.png?alt=media&token=f257f862-11ea-4f82-8bb6-d85e99ca25c5", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
ZEGYaOkcF3HYNJSHlAD3
public
contract
1,717,250,280,306
what-will-be-the-approximate-rank-o
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
What will be the approximate rank of Lakeside School among all national private schools this year?
null
null
1,280.43507
YES
610015200047
r9qzgos893c
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "label": "notarealuser", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " May is done, so I think the remaining can resolve?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FNrPzCOPRrG.png?alt=media&token=16054871-06e9-4cf0-820c-bed0dddbda71", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Palestine's 100 peak was May 2nd, so it resolves NO", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
xSWZ4wEXnBhSKGuV1ubS
public
contract
1,717,250,382,016
which-of-these-terms-search-terms-w
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which of these search terms will reach a new 90 day high in the US by the end of May 2024? [Add Options]
null
null
825.916343
YES
605f97a74484
77bqx3jq3y
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "label": "notarealuser", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " the peak was back in april, resolves NO ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F9TKhiwbi3J.png?alt=media&token=da7c62ba-4434-4b76-aca1-51a00e0f9fae", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
xSWZ4wEXnBhSKGuV1ubS
public
contract
1,717,250,449,892
which-of-these-terms-search-terms-w
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which of these search terms will reach a new 90 day high in the US by the end of May 2024? [Add Options]
null
null
825.916343
YES
605f97a74484
03wn0wybwwe3
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "label": "notarealuser", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " huge peak on may 30, resolves YES", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FsGW7p3Yu80.png?alt=media&token=25f7aaa7-28c3-4933-b0dc-180b5515aa5d", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
xSWZ4wEXnBhSKGuV1ubS
public
contract
1,717,250,491,874
which-of-these-terms-search-terms-w
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which of these search terms will reach a new 90 day high in the US by the end of May 2024? [Add Options]
null
null
825.916343
YES
605f97a74484
d9qieqqmi6t
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "label": "notarealuser", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " the peak was back in march, resolves NO ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FMG8xBYcPcV.png?alt=media&token=0013ce55-3ced-4b26-a8f8-cd239260b42f", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
xSWZ4wEXnBhSKGuV1ubS
public
contract
1,717,250,538,481
which-of-these-terms-search-terms-w
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which of these search terms will reach a new 90 day high in the US by the end of May 2024? [Add Options]
null
null
825.916343
YES
605f97a74484
w2d0g67o1pr
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "label": "notarealuser", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " peaked back in march, resolves NO ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F3pPwVjQ7o8.png?alt=media&token=0eb4729a-0db5-47c0-b265-a703bd825bec", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
xSWZ4wEXnBhSKGuV1ubS
public
contract
1,717,250,583,340
which-of-these-terms-search-terms-w
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which of these search terms will reach a new 90 day high in the US by the end of May 2024? [Add Options]
null
null
825.916343
YES
605f97a74484
477djw4vai2
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "label": "notarealuser", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " peaked in march, resolves NO ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FPXJjJHadey.png?alt=media&token=96cb1bb6-cba8-44e0-b61c-a8c585f0000d", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "(this was a cool market! thanks for setting it up)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
xSWZ4wEXnBhSKGuV1ubS
public
contract
1,717,250,630,869
which-of-these-terms-search-terms-w
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which of these search terms will reach a new 90 day high in the US by the end of May 2024? [Add Options]
null
null
825.916343
YES
605f97a74484
19ovxif268ri
false
2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "n2lnghmjk0s", "label": "mint", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I know it's up to the creator, but I'd just like to say that it wouldn't be a reasonable interpretation of English to say that a parked fighter jet has been \"shot down\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Josh Wilkes
mn8vwsH83cg1dL6evAP4
public
contract
1,717,250,703,928
will-russia-shoot-down-an-f16-over
JoshuaWilkes
https://firebasestorage.…516-65b151c295c8
Will Russia shoot down an F-16 over Ukraine before the end of 2025?
n2lnghmjk0s
0.677797
209.833176
YES
null
nd2ergiosa
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4bJFWVY9E8QCMtL0ygDFkbfZ97y2", "label": "DavidFWatson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " may is over, there has been no major update here, and it can resolve NO. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "(they've always occupied part of it, but in the comments there was clarification that they need to \"seize it significantly more than they already have\"—a quick news search reveals that there's been bluster but no substantive developments there)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
3CGcc5LAeJR0ZKIydYbE
public
contract
1,717,250,747,267
will-china-attempt-to-seize-scarbor
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will China attempt to seize Scarborough Shoal by end of May
null
0.091838
1,515.054621
NO
null
08vs6e0xgq19
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves to Eilish (the dua lipa album wasn't very good imo)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
seYY7DSlBV4QUW6SckCZ
public
contract
1,717,250,791,637
dua-lipa-vs-billie-eilish-whose-alb-b02cc0818934
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Dua Lipa vs Billie Eilish: Whose album (releasing in May) will score higher on Metacritic?
null
null
27,742.682586
NO
f352c3b2944b
r036hrzpwnd
false
3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Are POW camps that follow the rules of war counted?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does detention in mainland facilities count?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MercurialGuesser
ReZ7dwhzJT61q5aX2MMu
public
contract
1,717,250,794,084
will-there-be-concentration-camps-i
OP
https://firebasestorage.…8da-0f20dd0e5cac
Will there be concentration camps in Taiwan before 2040?
null
0.354589
74.698966
NO
null
6ns38n3r9ec
false
p0cactq9vxepo3H1ZGnwhuoMOaB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's June?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
PredictordudeT
liO81A8ROlMc3gLKPK2D
public
contract
1,717,250,822,365
will-this-market-have-a-greater-num
PredictordudeT
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLcXY9NGAXuKZwudK-gwxb1MWVTYi1o-IlYuW8zjYbKilgi5g=s96-c
Will this market have a greater number of traders than percentage odds by June 2024?
null
0.402743
161.721429
YES
null
0jdpc8w1pv9
false
6NjgcSqIYqdg4mID9976SHPNLAl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "l8l86zx0vd", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " That's what I'm assuming.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Patrik Cihal
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,717,250,853,679
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
patrik
https://firebasestorage.…184-1140b99c8021
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
8sp8p4941zn
null
1,849.456184
NO
fdb3f2d22989
cwe0q1htk7u
false
T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Am I I misremembering or didn't Oliver talk during the opening?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tony Gao
87lkGGgrMKacchHN3GWr
public
contract
1,717,250,874,225
who-will-hold-an-event-or-a-present
TonyGao
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c
Who will hold an event, talk, or a presentation at LessOnline 2024?
null
null
87.659998
YES
df1e5e16fcc5
4jt7iolhocl
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ammon market (he's asked mods to resolve his), it's june 1st, the lead is 0.8 points, resolves to [0,2) option ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FEQnLV9cZ1g.png?alt=media&token=5c7f4316-db87-4160-bbbf-87375802e81a", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
vnSzmc1nEOmQqGJl2hqc
public
contract
1,717,250,904,795
how-much-lead-will-trump-has-over-b-82dfaa824d86
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
How much lead will Trump have over Biden on June 1st, 2024?
null
null
442.948248
YES
806b08a58b4a
6fza4sgxg1p
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "JEFF MITCHELL: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQDaqKddNht.png?alt=media&token=11ef0907-0920-4641-a6b4-ac9e485aef02", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "THAT'S NUMBER THIRTY THREE. WITNESS HIM ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ
public
contract
1,717,251,108,376
will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%?
null
null
8,209.364305
YES
341ff8d448a1
eb82r61ydqr
false
3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Opposition parties have already been banned and elections have already been cancelled under martial law. There are widespread restrictions on the press. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What sort of actions could occur to make you resolve as a “yes”? Or is this more a question of whether the west will present him as illiberal?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MercurialGuesser
iFyBxunx3hPAUNm57cGH
public
contract
1,717,251,152,149
will-zelenskyy-be-illiberal-by-2030
OP
https://firebasestorage.…8da-0f20dd0e5cac
Will Zelenskyy Be Illiberal by 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
vgo1o7w4co
false
3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "For those wondering, the election is in 2028.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MercurialGuesser
s5VKuXy8r3NxS808q275
public
contract
1,717,251,216,152
will-there-be-a-change-of-power-in
OP
https://firebasestorage.…8da-0f20dd0e5cac
Will there be a change of power in China by 2025
null
0.152319
23.311483
NO
null
luixqkucy
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "l8l86zx0vd", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I was thinking of resolving the others to the poll results but looking back I see I never made that clear. Not sure I can do that now, if everyone expects them to resolve No.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ClubmasterTransparent
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,717,251,261,208
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
8sp8p4941zn
null
2,090.570122
NO
3492687fa606
f4br2qjy8e9
false
qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't really understand this market. Destiny is still streaming on kick regularly. Is this about whether destiny would stream on kick ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "exclusively", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Agh
quqVyy8aFxshP1ZGHOqk
public
contract
1,717,251,311,239
will-destiny-stream-on-kick-permane
Agh
https://firebasestorage.…96a-92c3aadf6a66
Will Destiny stream on kick permanently by June 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
zbtzj9tc19
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "y3x5ukn9bu", "label": "FranklinBaldo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I did really have a lot of time, so I'll just have to suggest you reread my comment :)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think the only part that might be missing is \"universal basic income\".", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
Q68NZDgtpRZbaagVJ827
public
contract
1,717,251,319,865
will-brazil-lower-the-minimum-age-f
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will Brazil lower the minimum age for retirement?
xjxtlv0r2g
null
null
null
null
4k9vg9v31pw
false
j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think you meant to enter these on the two-words-anywhere version of this market", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jim Hays
yDYbgNpoO1er14TAPm9M
public
contract
1,717,251,358,732
which-of-the-following-will-exactly
JimHays
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5OSur1iRh2XJCBqWybZBd64MFALBZbO6xjTAxCmAM=s96-c
Which answers will *exactly* match a *full* New York Times front page headline before 2028? [READ DESCRIPTION]
null
null
699.022353
NO
3oawkfowum
o7hju9qprzd
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "label": "JamesF", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " is off the site, has asked mods to resolve his markets. this can resolve NO. i'm not aware of anyone being banned for being under 18 years old.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
ih5mfBxoxZmy0h0AQfbu
public
contract
1,717,251,660,571
will-any-manifold-user-get-banned-f
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will any manifold user get banned for being under 18 years old before June
null
0.023999
5,190.77588
NO
null
xakuh9hw
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "mqx5cKiTKNY6m3VsR6Eiy2y4dGJ2", "label": "BrendanTroadec", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " IPL resolves YES, everything else NO ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FnKuLhxJLyK.png?alt=media&token=0207b4a9-f6d1-4e71-8baa-e9760dd2304e", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
Y2aDWPKmCVLD4aaOwy3Y
public
contract
1,717,251,740,006
the-most-popular-wikipedia-article-81cd72a3d019
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
The most popular Wikipedia article in May 2024? (no exclusions)
null
null
102.952574
NO
3d49711ee599
vq6x76acoae
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "yWKyDbMkNfSHZAIbK26aR58Nxji2", "label": "AmHa", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves to netanyahu", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
DVzWLI8HndLbRKIZ55VV
public
contract
1,717,251,761,702
who-will-be-the-prime-minister-of-i
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel on June 1, 2024?
null
null
565.373534
YES
7b5a90c3e243
3ospc4apwzv
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Valves! Vaaaaaaaalves!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,717,251,765,218
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
null
0.74618
0
NO
null
f5mfgzxkm55
false
oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "DKd6aEg45QV1SXzQKWXs", "label": "ChrisEdwards", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Marvel created a lot of different plot threads involving Kang and have clearly set up for more multiverse arcs. To ditch that entirely would be taking the MCU in a very different direction.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
mongo
WHtNiDeC3YROGoLyKYrl
public
contract
1,717,251,787,101
which-actor-to-replace-jonathan-maj
mongo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7I_X--wyVrh_ZPix4FSV8YMpbXtxCdMU-qkPeUUA=s96-c
Which actor to replace Jonathan Majors in the role of Kang?
DKd6aEg45QV1SXzQKWXs
null
80.500506
NO
024811aa4fe2
1m6x0kucz5m
false
BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "mw0bxg8xse", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " The Senate and Gov candidates are both longtime Manchin allies. Yet he just left the Democratic Party and became an independent for seemingly no reason if it's not a calculated move to run statewide.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Semiotic Rivalry
NrJjqVDyXkRQV9SOtm3U
public
contract
1,717,251,825,844
will-joe-manchin-run-for-governor-o-ypw3rg3wva
SemioticRivalry
https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf
Will Joe Manchin run for Governor of West Virginia as an Independent?
n3p5kdsyf9
0.223246
561.517349
YES
null
28u4qwclva4h
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "STaLEOG3qgOevr1cXRzMUhwswMC2", "label": "ColeWyeth", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I believe this resolves to \"Iranian prison\" ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-rapper-tataloo-sentenced-undisclosed-charges/32961249.html", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-rapper-tataloo-sentenced-undisclosed-charges/32961249.html", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
irxUjgfSIjWjxTvmOaWU
public
contract
1,717,251,848,863
what-will-happen-to-amir-tataloo-by
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
What will happen to Amir Tataloo by June 2024?
null
null
71.635017
YES
2b9571d46374
k0wkuka4px
false
lcRGsjN51pbwM4T0sAwOVu01fPg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Interesting! This could have resolved yes due to the Gaza aid pier construction, but Biden ordered troops not to step foot on the Gaza shore. (via Times of Israel)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Laya
5aGCPGV8OLil7UpbyQBr
public
contract
1,717,251,910,250
will-there-be-900-us-army-soldiers
Laya
https://firebasestorage.…5ad-0852e67098bd
Will there be 900+ US Army soldiers on the ground in Israel or Gaza by June 1 2024?
null
0.084613
160.33598
NO
null
u8sruj0daj
false
qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "They're loading up on the launchpad and this market's below 60%, really says something about the collective confidence in this vehicle.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
robm
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,717,251,976,530
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
robm
https://firebasestorage.…c2d-4d0e2a793adf
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
null
null
null
null
null
k7bd1vgvarh
false
3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "To clarify, where would welfare/incentive payments to families sit? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Also, where does the general practice of surrogate mothers come in? It’s illegal in China, but if it’s legalised (or an underground ring is found), will this question resolve to “yes” if 200 people (‘civil society’) used surrogates?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MercurialGuesser
W3qVU2bAjiqS9HL3TONR
public
contract
1,717,252,053,380
the-ccp-itself-will-directly-produc
OP
https://firebasestorage.…8da-0f20dd0e5cac
The CCP itself will directly produce and raise children
null
0.312037
70.401274
NO
null
b6jb9fjlyq5
false
W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"Or otherwise\" is problematic to me.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Frederick Norris
ZD7bzVqwUAZEJ5SlnY3w
public
contract
1,717,252,182,740
if-trump-wins-the-election-will-viv
FrederickNorris
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1nG8JLEomMagK6stKR9jLtLP2h-QTJkMxC9Qz-tJy8A=s96-c
If Trump wins the election, will Vivek Ramaswamy be given a government position (cabinet or otherwise) by EOY 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
q0cypvrbj1
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "To be fair a lot about it is new.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "But yes.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,717,252,222,177
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
u8sruj0daj
0.74618
0
NO
null
1g161rekv0k
false
EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zbtzj9tc19", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Thanks for the suggestion, but charades isn't really my thing.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Franklin Baldo
Q68NZDgtpRZbaagVJ827
public
contract
1,717,252,236,882
will-brazil-lower-the-minimum-age-f
FranklinBaldo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c
Will Brazil lower the minimum age for retirement?
xjxtlv0r2g
null
89.041388
NO
5zv02bbw0s
o4n047iggfc
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "lmao", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,252,324,429
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
1,223.631451
NO
9dbcde390667
fu2svrb7rj
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "q0cypvrbj1", "label": "Mqrius", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (Also tbh I just decided to take my limited win and run, not sure if I wanna babysit this bet, considering going to touch grass instead)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,717,252,350,636
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
u8sruj0daj
0.74618
0
NO
null
xq2w9q3hdyk
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "o4n047iggfc", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Oh hey are you here?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,252,352,459
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
o4n047iggfc
null
39.416532
NO
a3a1c1011005
vp698if1crm
false
3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This means formal notice of withdrawal given, rather than suspending operations with it?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MercurialGuesser
8TKYmIKaJsxy5XPqZs9k
public
contract
1,717,252,410,568
will-armenia-withdraw-from-the-coll-0a455eae5eac
OP
https://firebasestorage.…8da-0f20dd0e5cac
Will Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2027?
null
0.806052
94.156528
NO
null
sgsprzj00x
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xq2w9q3hdyk", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Nope not getting there til Friday, just Manifest for me! (I mean I'll be not that far away for family stuff, but that's just because I live in the bay area). LO looks fun! ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,252,426,041
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
o4n047iggfc
null
1,796.538128
NO
9dbcde390667
j54u94qzd5
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kgmernpi65e", "label": "ErwinRossen", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Time Zone is stated in the description.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
SirCryptomind
DsZQy2YXZILFW6bbAWQQ
public
contract
1,717,252,517,710
how-many-spacex-launches-will-occur-7466ab05ac98
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
🚀 How Many SPACEX Launches Will Occur During May 2024?
dh2kvbtux65
null
0
NO
049ba686f9ff
8bpo617ook3
false
oErqbndZHmbaRJNtMqJ1IzFX7Gu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If this is truly conditionally based on models up to GPT4 as stated (those released on or before Apr 11, 2023), I don't see this happening", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Stephen Stroup
ZI9cj9TfYJjjbVR8pFux
public
contract
1,717,252,544,581
will-an-agentized-llm-cause-some-ch
StephenStroup
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLv5ULXPgEZROx3C453JFMWQ4dNJdSxstlUNzm_TYDxdK08iapzag=s96-c
Will an agentized LLM cause some chaos?
null
null
null
null
null
q1t284m81d
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " mattyb market, so mods will need to resolve. quick clarification—I'm assuming a big group photo (like one i saw for last year) counts right? it doesn't have to be a pic taken explicitly for this market?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
uXAscPxSyspYj0QEZ9FY
public
contract
1,717,252,580,677
manifest-multiperson-mixer-bingo
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Manifest Multi-Person Mixer Bingo!
null
null
17.142857
YES
918c9e0116c1
casbbw47o6d
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "q1t284m81d", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " and ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " could maybe add this to the manifest dashboard, if mods plan to run this market?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
uXAscPxSyspYj0QEZ9FY
public
contract
1,717,252,600,660
manifest-multiperson-mixer-bingo
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Manifest Multi-Person Mixer Bingo!
q1t284m81d
null
17.142857
YES
918c9e0116c1
jqrwz3b2qb
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1g161rekv0k", "label": "FranklinBaldo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " UBI smart, lower retirement age dumb.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
Q68NZDgtpRZbaagVJ827
public
contract
1,717,252,641,762
will-brazil-lower-the-minimum-age-f
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will Brazil lower the minimum age for retirement?
xjxtlv0r2g
null
null
null
null
7trzapqoaly
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The description as currently written is confusing. What I get from it is:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The question resolves YES whenever jury selection starts in any of the mentioned cases, and if it still hasn't resolved on November 5 it resolves NO.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
0eyHWQbaW9qLWJzy9761
public
contract
1,717,252,882,851
will-any-of-the-other-donald-trump
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will any of the other Donald Trump criminal trials (Jury Selection) start before the November Presidential election?
null
null
null
null
null
e5gk9wahha
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Any reason for this to be unlinked?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
ve2DjbUNGEB5h3IzK1zB
public
contract
1,717,252,945,621
nba-finals-dallas-mavericks-vs-bost
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
NBA Finals: Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics (EXACT SERIES OUTCOME)
null
null
null
null
null
mslpjpz86x8
false
OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "i8gz9q4588o", "label": "JonathanRay", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " dude, I posted two adoption studies that directly counter the single researcher you mentioned. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This cartoon isn't explicitly about the US, it's actually on a kiwi website. You're also arguing against art made to illustrate broader patterns (which doesn't even say one of its fictional character is starving but whatever). There's eating and there's eating ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "well", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " – that is, being provided with fresh, balanced meals that not everyone gets, having to buy ready made or get takeout because they're time-poor etc.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You're also skipping over the crucial element that often we don't know what we don't know. People with poor financial literacy often don't know that they don't know about index funds, for example. To know what you need to learn, you need a degree of awareness that it exists in the first place, and this awareness is often contingent upon socioeconomic background. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Annoyingly I actually agree with you that people shouldn't take loans on anything and am a firm believer in living below means. But I'm in fortunate enough economic circumstances (and live in a city with great public transit) so I can make that choice. In America people ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "need", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " cars to function. Some of them are probably overspending. But it's also a necessity which adds another layer to families' financial burdens.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bubbles
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,717,253,031,882
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
Lorelai
https://firebasestorage.…bd3-9614af348f98
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
lgq1fdgda18
null
1,990.144514
YES
59a364c55d2c
27ez9x6w11c
false
EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jqrwz3b2qb", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I'm not sure about that. Lowering the retirement age might be easier to pass as legislation and could be a practical first step rather than taking no action at all.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Franklin Baldo
Q68NZDgtpRZbaagVJ827
public
contract
1,717,253,399,915
will-brazil-lower-the-minimum-age-f
FranklinBaldo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c
Will Brazil lower the minimum age for retirement?
xjxtlv0r2g
null
89.041388
NO
5zv02bbw0s
8m5dkdsisls
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "27ez9x6w11c", "label": "FranklinBaldo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " doing bad things reduces political will to do good things.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It mostly won't matter anyway, since once there's AGI very little of that kind of thing matters.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
Q68NZDgtpRZbaagVJ827
public
contract
1,717,253,523,273
will-brazil-lower-the-minimum-age-f
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will Brazil lower the minimum age for retirement?
xjxtlv0r2g
null
null
null
null
zzqka21aslh
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "27ez9x6w11c", "label": "FranklinBaldo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " lower retirement age -> reduced labor supply -> higher wages -> higher threshold below which replacing a worker with AI is profitable -> higher unemployment and also slightly faster AI capability growth", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
Q68NZDgtpRZbaagVJ827
public
contract
1,717,253,636,744
will-brazil-lower-the-minimum-age-f
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will Brazil lower the minimum age for retirement?
xjxtlv0r2g
null
null
null
null
4qhpxpnw3y
false
JsoHnF7zq8Phr6J0K2qKXimVcrs2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8v2pltf3fmd", "label": "JessicaEvans", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " You realize 135 only top 1% right?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Either people are really bad at estimaing IQ or just really hate Elon.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Shai
U1t6nrLFr52JiJPf04FH
public
contract
1,717,253,782,731
what-is-elon-musks-iq
Shai
https://firebasestorage.…f38-e2c9873ba7d7
What is Elon Musk's IQ?
8v2pltf3fmd
null
null
null
null
suoc5xsz1r
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "27ez9x6w11c", "label": "FranklinBaldo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " and, as I said, we're a stupid country, so of course it's easier to pass stupid laws.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
Q68NZDgtpRZbaagVJ827
public
contract
1,717,253,817,342
will-brazil-lower-the-minimum-age-f
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will Brazil lower the minimum age for retirement?
xjxtlv0r2g
null
null
null
null
jxlet7vl7cj
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "MOAR VALVES", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,717,253,854,725
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
null
0.75386
0
NO
null
6b3lfgfmbi
false
lUGDbuJVTpPyYsXTYXpd4139sE43
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sold out because now I've granted a chunk of money towards Starknet port so probably should be neutral in the market.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The team promised to complete ZK-STARKs within a month. You can bet whether that leads to an L2 publicly started!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ender Ting
wdfVqy7WncaRPrZaH2Hz
public
contract
1,717,253,855,270
will-there-be-starknet-l2-over-ton
AnT
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcWkbPJnNa7oUkYFwveuKh1CoCbDrksUco-QNBP=s96-c
Will there be Starknet L2 over TON by the end of 2026?
null
0.381191
48.924967
NO
null
5apf2t1gdi3
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jxlet7vl7cj", "label": "Mqrius", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " \"oops we accidentally started venting the helium tank\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,717,253,917,990
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
jxlet7vl7cj
0.75386
181.964339
NO
null
0gevou1amqib
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does this have to be under room temperature and standard pressure?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
B5lelBOEqhtXzXhMZLre
public
contract
1,717,253,957,779
will-a-superconductor-beat-a-super
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will a superconductor beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
d625snwrnu7
false
JsoHnF7zq8Phr6J0K2qKXimVcrs2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is there a credible source on IQ / SAT scores of startup founders? Or perhaps another group we could compare to?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Shai
U1t6nrLFr52JiJPf04FH
public
contract
1,717,254,073,651
what-is-elon-musks-iq
Shai
https://firebasestorage.…f38-e2c9873ba7d7
What is Elon Musk's IQ?
null
0.539424
1,138.771265
YES
null
8hcm1g8s2tp
false
qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Ff1cjQoBW8k.gif?alt=media&token=622cbbf9-491b-4fc6-80fe-9f259cacd205", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
robm
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,717,254,128,344
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
robm
https://firebasestorage.…c2d-4d0e2a793adf
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
jxlet7vl7cj
0.532233
981.211661
NO
null
jrd3hefvuuf
false
G4JTSx4yXAYll9JkJOj0z0qNNBt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4qhpxpnw3y", "label": "Shai", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " He is not above top 1%", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jessica Evans
U1t6nrLFr52JiJPf04FH
public
contract
1,717,254,260,633
what-is-elon-musks-iq
JessicaEvans
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ09N-L0VcH3A2_jFbvwzXuPQH7Z8dtC_qkPe9VUC3kHfs=s96-c
What is Elon Musk's IQ?
8v2pltf3fmd
null
null
null
null
tunixmtj1u
false
rNVW9sNdznbeEiOEvWjw0ZmMSXZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The human nose detects smoke by the smoke bonding with proteins, whereas a smoke detector detects smoke by how light interacts with the smoke. In order for this market to be resolved does the AI need to use proteins or something similar, or is using light and other methods a valid approach? The human nose has around 400 unique sensors which can be triggered independently, leaving the potential for around 100,000 smells that humans could potentially distinguish, but in practice I'd be surprised if the average person could get better than around 50, how many smells does the AI need to distinguish to resolve this market? Does it have to sense the same chemicals that humans can sense or does distinguishing any chemicals count? Does the AI have to be capable of describing the smell in casual human language (ie. Earthy), or is simply listing the chemicals present enough?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
blue rat
30B1VGn7QXnDSRKme3MR
public
contract
1,717,254,713,546
will-agi-be-achieved-before-ais-are
bluerat
https://firebasestorage.…d80-4da51f53b651
Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?
null
0.444739
99.817732
YES
null
m719wqei9un
false
JsoHnF7zq8Phr6J0K2qKXimVcrs2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jrd3hefvuuf", "label": "JessicaEvans", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I can't spit at my university without hitting someone that's top 1% iq. Most of them will never found 1 successful tech startup let alone 5. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Shai
U1t6nrLFr52JiJPf04FH
public
contract
1,717,254,750,918
what-is-elon-musks-iq
Shai
https://firebasestorage.…f38-e2c9873ba7d7
What is Elon Musk's IQ?
8v2pltf3fmd
0.539424
1,138.771265
YES
null
a33vgh7kam
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1m6x0kucz5m", "label": "SemioticRivalry", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " If he were planning to run, wouldn't he wait to change his voter registration until he's ready to announce that he's running?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
NrJjqVDyXkRQV9SOtm3U
public
contract
1,717,254,773,237
will-joe-manchin-run-for-governor-o-ypw3rg3wva
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will Joe Manchin run for Governor of West Virginia as an Independent?
n3p5kdsyf9
0.223246
883.941126
NO
null
2sqol54fx02
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9sdhy6vhkhi", "label": "nuclearD", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " the crime isn't hush money. The crime is falsifying business records. That crime is made more serious because it was conducted in service of other crimes, such as the illegal campaign contributions described in the above comment.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The news keeps calling it the hush money case because that part sounds much less dry than falsifying business records.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jack
HSFwQ8o6np4QWbvBWPZg
public
contract
1,717,254,835,941
what-will-trumps-sentence-for-his-f
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
What will Trump's sentence for his hush money felony convictions include?
9sdhy6vhkhi
null
58.624047
NO
45966ps9r9
en80tqetpie
false
BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "a33vgh7kam", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " i think it makes sense to do it a few weeks/months in advance so that it looks less calculated to the voters. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Semiotic Rivalry
NrJjqVDyXkRQV9SOtm3U
public
contract
1,717,254,913,523
will-joe-manchin-run-for-governor-o-ypw3rg3wva
SemioticRivalry
https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf
Will Joe Manchin run for Governor of West Virginia as an Independent?
n3p5kdsyf9
0.223246
561.517349
YES
null
65w52bi8hdc
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": "", "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://media3.giphy.com/media/OtACFXZ84Q2szeBmpi/giphy.gif?cid=5ff1f1caaaq6kbbu6gge8hhxifu2y663258h01vya7ouvzim&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
SirCryptomind
Vfbh1SIHiVchCo5TuogD
public
contract
1,717,255,079,591
how-many-spacex-launches-will-occur-a6470c3e84d7
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
🚀 How Many SPACEX Launches Will Occur During June 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
s1xghts1mw
false
JSnusX572NOjY5ATVh26mXKaJAX2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Interesting amount of space between this and \"the final book\" being published (the one by Jack). Though the Jack McPherson one has a similar estimate. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": "puNvdG9asK12KzLyVosx,2rXdAW7YyIuGjN2JjKAD,HvOi4AMe0I90kZauKfO2", "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "gridCardsComponent" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eric Moyer
ccXtLycHGZmJrMRnH2xR
public
contract
1,717,255,164,598
will-the-winds-of-winter-be-publish-ebbf60145e06
EricMoyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjWjh_0AlJeItIHCWFiBI-AEJbSBiMR0SlAv_Na0w=s96-c
Will "The Winds of Winter" be published while George R. R. Martin is alive
null
null
null
null
null
3i4fhqm98c8
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tunixmtj1u", "label": "bluerat", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " very good questions - i don't expect machines to smell using the same mechanisms humans use, it is not like they can see or speak the same way we do. However, I do expect them to be better than the average human at distinguishing smells, whatever this means. They don't have to use words such as earthy to describe the chemicals but they should be able to derive at least as much information as the average human would, e.g. something is rotten", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Soli ꩜
30B1VGn7QXnDSRKme3MR
public
contract
1,717,255,328,908
will-agi-be-achieved-before-ais-are
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?
tunixmtj1u
null
null
null
null
ufcdzjro8g
false
byEds8x9SMYgX0BuPMufdcpbSIH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dgf28h7utoi", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Resolved.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
PREDYX
8Pa2cuxirFzmN1A8mWQZ
public
contract
1,717,255,364,618
will-bitcoin-dip-to-48k-in-may-2024
predyx_markets
https://firebasestorage.…b9b-f40c94e62b4e
Will Bitcoin dip to $48K in May 2024?
dgf28h7utoi
null
null
null
null
uez0ut8dcr
false
JSnusX572NOjY5ATVh26mXKaJAX2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "OpenAI's sign-in is AWFUL. It is forever telling me that I've been logged out.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eric Moyer
cHNbmkPkW9fpx8vhYAI4
public
contract
1,717,255,552,582
will-signin-with-openai-be-announce
EricMoyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjWjh_0AlJeItIHCWFiBI-AEJbSBiMR0SlAv_Na0w=s96-c
Will sign-in with OpenAI be announced in before end of 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
vl3uvmafgf
false
wFJFI2zWYLXWBk8ntc1c0HQUyVB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/dearmoonproject/status/1796759847817625933?t=yYDbQEHIv7UAvSwXSAtpHw&s=19", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://x.com/dearmoonproject/status/1796759847817625933?t=yYDbQEHIv7UAvSwXSAtpHw&s=19", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tom Finnie
BX4Helj63itRuCT9L9AS
public
contract
1,717,255,779,227
will-the-dearmoon-project-launch-to
TomFinnie
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzTFcrM10lyXi4iPstf5HI3KioX-B-cOeePVyX2=s96-c
Will the dearMoon project launch to the moon in 2024?
null
0.021236
2,068.993494
NO
null
19ztbhfy8yb
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I love karaoke, there should be more joy and fun in the world, but what’s the logic behind making this a Prize Market? Wasn’t the whole idea of that to broaden the userbase? By raising the overall utility of markets? Not meant as a gripe — I’m seriously confused.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ClubmasterTransparent
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,256,061,159
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
null
null
null
null
null
xgzklumnivp
false
ADbUe3UA8VeQscv6vWhTsPwCBgi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "label": "AmmonLam", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves no ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/maryland-president-results", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/maryland-president-results", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
blue
mpY6qIYK3HspmYIBrBwK
public
contract
1,717,256,064,766
if-trump-is-still-in-the-race-will-6e2914c7214d
bluefrog
https://firebasestorage.…636-28655ed04405
If Trump is still in the race, will Nikki Haley win the 2024 Maryland Republican presidential primary?
null
0.010169
57.698754
NO
null
0ng0tl5h05h
false
OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "As a relatively small startup, I think OpenAI is too focused on building AI to prioritize making yet another way to log into things.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Caleb Biddulph
cHNbmkPkW9fpx8vhYAI4
public
contract
1,717,256,183,758
will-signin-with-openai-be-announce
CDBiddulph
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfnooldvqsfyLB7ZRjdJceJURCVsUcLn8Ir7VvJneRY2A=s96-c
Will sign-in with OpenAI be announced in before end of 2025?
null
0.435489
245.594263
NO
null
rzt2ict5oqg
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "0ng0tl5h05h", "label": "CDBiddulph", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " how does the gpt-store fit into this? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Soli ꩜
cHNbmkPkW9fpx8vhYAI4
public
contract
1,717,256,289,056
will-signin-with-openai-be-announce
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
Will sign-in with OpenAI be announced in before end of 2025?
0ng0tl5h05h
0.435489
2,168.833445
YES
null
tmf73pzx1me
false
X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "i6ztqp3273l", "label": "EstMtz", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Yeah it cost me 3,750 mana for the games yesterday. I got 3,246 mana back, if I don't close early I only get 375 mana back. The daily streak bonus covers one game and I get a bit of mana from trading fee. So on average I break even over multiple days.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Keenen W
rpINgNCUuLZiHkvZkGjZ
public
contract
1,717,256,401,925
major-league-baseball-mlb-regular-s
KeenenW
https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb
Major League Baseball (MLB) ⚾Regular Season Matches
i6ztqp3273l
null
3,040.955545
YES
162e3349d21b
pnravrf4zxf
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "uez0ut8dcr", "label": "EricMoyer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " interesting, i had this problem at the beginning in december 2022 but i don't have it anymore", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Soli ꩜
cHNbmkPkW9fpx8vhYAI4
public
contract
1,717,256,414,813
will-signin-with-openai-be-announce
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
Will sign-in with OpenAI be announced in before end of 2025?
uez0ut8dcr
0.377407
2,712.6609
YES
null
0dihkb72a01
false
OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rzt2ict5oqg", "label": "Soli", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " The GPT store is clearly AI-related. I don't see a good reason for OpenAI to want to give you another way to log into arbitrary websites", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Caleb Biddulph
cHNbmkPkW9fpx8vhYAI4
public
contract
1,717,256,480,660
will-signin-with-openai-be-announce
CDBiddulph
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfnooldvqsfyLB7ZRjdJceJURCVsUcLn8Ir7VvJneRY2A=s96-c
Will sign-in with OpenAI be announced in before end of 2025?
0ng0tl5h05h
0.377407
245.594263
NO
null
9w14ycq38kc
false
9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A blockade that affects the whole of Taiwan? Or does the blockade of individual ports or offshore islands also count?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jan
MnHrajBT05pqRgmUecix
public
contract
1,717,256,515,898
will-china-blockade-taiwan-between
Jan53274
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c
Will China blockade Taiwan between the US election and the next Presidential inauguration?
null
0.307369
138.800706
NO
null
0gz1rq4rsp14
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " inactive", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
yz4ZIse9H3SjqJTp2nCM
public
contract
1,717,256,690,124
will-gta-6-be-released-before-june
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will GTA 6 be released before June 2024?
null
0.01
41.039478
NO
null
ik4ftchjdxl
false
mqx5cKiTKNY6m3VsR6Eiy2y4dGJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xakuh9hw", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " It's May... ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Brendan Troadec
Y2aDWPKmCVLD4aaOwy3Y
public
contract
1,717,256,705,229
the-most-popular-wikipedia-article-81cd72a3d019
BrendanTroadec
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK4Dn8vdzoY2wtYBN7Xr8wrM3Axwoa4inUKshOUOPUBnrw=s96-c
The most popular Wikipedia article in May 2024? (no exclusions)
xakuh9hw
null
21.718501
YES
2b7102b5c548
zesqrqo4txm
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
zJjcslrd1zEvIXykm9dP
public
contract
1,717,256,708,847
will-there-be-a-third-official-mani
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will there be a third official Manifold derivative product before June?
null
null
null
null
null
bnpgu950i2j
false
OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What if there's something very small like a title card or captions on the video that were edited in by a human?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Caleb Biddulph
JJDPcEWx9nJ2fFQfEEKX
public
contract
1,717,256,754,335
in-2028-will-a-5-min-video-complete
CDBiddulph
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfnooldvqsfyLB7ZRjdJceJURCVsUcLn8Ir7VvJneRY2A=s96-c
In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube?
null
null
null
null
null
38o8rzy8anb
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "luixqkucy", "label": "ClubmasterTransparent", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Probably just resolve them to NO, since that's what everyone expected", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Plasma Ballin'
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,717,256,889,118
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
8sp8p4941zn
null
91.868452
NO
j3ey9jxnir
izwmsio3dd
false
VFzSD3qUntb9Pu0giXBvjkmkqsh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7trzapqoaly", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " That’s exactly what the intended meaning is. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pjfkh
0eyHWQbaW9qLWJzy9761
public
contract
1,717,256,990,853
will-any-of-the-other-donald-trump
Pjfkh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI8G8CptLN8rZpkc1wuPjxiTtiehCNWr6XuloMSvvz6=s96-c
Will any of the other Donald Trump criminal trials (Jury Selection) start before the November Presidential election?
7trzapqoaly
0.489237
95.98148
NO
null
it7jj9a20a
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "f4br2qjy8e9", "label": "Agh", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " either way its still not permanent , idk how it resolves yes ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
quqVyy8aFxshP1ZGHOqk
public
contract
1,717,257,080,395
will-destiny-stream-on-kick-permane
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Destiny stream on kick permanently by June 2024?
f4br2qjy8e9
0.021704
695.295679
NO
null
jnvi04icg8m
false
sNwe94NAjSbhu1H1nJdUFBynW712
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "SA", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Carlos
nCNQbc7lYhCUaHjbA4vF
public
contract
1,717,257,260,917
will-there-be-a-military-operation
Carlosab83
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLyJZsUdw5JLIMzZvOs7_0V0KC5Od5MDjr_BJ5fFW3w=s96-c
Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?
null
null
null
null
null
h4k8bkxxp0s
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "0dihkb72a01", "label": "CDBiddulph", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " i think sign-in with openai will achieve what the gpt-store wanted to do but failed at. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Soli ꩜
cHNbmkPkW9fpx8vhYAI4
public
contract
1,717,257,365,662
will-signin-with-openai-be-announce
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
Will sign-in with OpenAI be announced in before end of 2025?
0ng0tl5h05h
0.377407
2,712.6609
YES
null
229pcov9hpt
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "how am i showing a profit on this market? I traded brilliantly... under a bunch of assumptions about this market, all of which were wrong 😆 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jim
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,717,257,409,571
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
null
null
5,622.398255
NO
be5da8403dad
cjkdcx0blek
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "MrBeast still at 265M 7 hours before this question closes. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Christopher Randles
5xxeSOVmWVacydE8zoLC
public
contract
1,717,257,550,538
will-mrbeasts-main-channel-be-the-m
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will Mrbeast’s main channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel on June 1st 2024?
4oibigtmo5l
0.017827
16,906.443366
NO
null
9ynzj8y7ez9
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kd83as95RJ1HIoldJajm", "label": "Ophiuchus", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " it's latin for \"before ground\" so if he's cremated instead of being buried, it still counts as prehumously", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jonathan Ray
ccXtLycHGZmJrMRnH2xR
public
contract
1,717,257,598,124
will-the-winds-of-winter-be-publish-ebbf60145e06
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
Will "The Winds of Winter" be published while George R. R. Martin is alive
kd83as95RJ1HIoldJajm
0.750559
545.674805
YES
null
0fn4fzm7c4ka
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "izwmsio3dd", "label": "Pjfkh", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " may I suggest editing the description into something closer to this?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
0eyHWQbaW9qLWJzy9761
public
contract
1,717,257,663,528
will-any-of-the-other-donald-trump
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will any of the other Donald Trump criminal trials (Jury Selection) start before the November Presidential election?
7trzapqoaly
null
null
null
null
j1s33tbvhxd
false
UDtma0GdHvankZVH0RBQJI0HPcH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9w14ycq38kc", "label": "Jan53274", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Excellent question- I’d say yes in both cases assuming the blockade is sustained and used as a political tool. If some ships surround a minor island for 20 minutes before moving on then no. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
James Dillard
MnHrajBT05pqRgmUecix
public
contract
1,717,257,667,007
will-china-blockade-taiwan-between
jdilla
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgQ3DNbYEPlxgQPup0iq_AO-L4Z9__n3MX3MtqVpLw=s96-c
Will China blockade Taiwan between the US election and the next Presidential inauguration?
9w14ycq38kc
null
null
null
null
kvir4h93smc
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xakuh9hw", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you are looking at april", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
Y2aDWPKmCVLD4aaOwy3Y
public
contract
1,717,257,681,141
the-most-popular-wikipedia-article-81cd72a3d019
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
The most popular Wikipedia article in May 2024? (no exclusions)
xakuh9hw
null
102.85605
NO
b9e9226b6652
8yf3onrymha
false
B8KBN0Ws4nQSRyz3a0aFazVsi8F2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think this is not truly right wing. The association is caused by geography not political opinion. I say y'all all the time and would call myself pretty solidly left wing. It is actually a more inclusive second person plural pronoun than \"you guys\" which is more common in more politically left leaning places (mostly New England). /srs", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I also feel attacked that y'all would assume a common word in my vocabulary is rightfully associated with something I disagree with. /j", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jacob Holz
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,257,706,562
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
Jacobmpp
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLPlNd2nnkVu344Ob5Mp_qrN5LSf9Xt681QXwIcPVDmWqI=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
null
null
61.502094
YES
2cce940e2ce7
nk9leyrpaxo
false
9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "j1s33tbvhxd", "label": "jdilla", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Maybe you can define blockade in the description. For example as a certain percentage reduction of taiwans trade and a time frame. to prevent fringe cases like the intimidation of individual trade ships or a blockade of a lighthouse boathouse 😄", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jan
MnHrajBT05pqRgmUecix
public
contract
1,717,257,973,460
will-china-blockade-taiwan-between
Jan53274
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c
Will China blockade Taiwan between the US election and the next Presidential inauguration?
9w14ycq38kc
0.269071
138.800706
NO
null
cww4fngqjoh
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "icotyvz30z", "label": "JonathanRay", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " not sure about the speed at which the shielding is ablated by radiation, and the entire subject is ungoogleable because it's dominated by the medical uses of radiation ablation. No matter how many minus medical keywords I put after radiation ablation, I still get 100% medical results", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jonathan Ray
NyA5UxR0NvsVc2yIEfIs
public
contract
1,717,258,254,580
what-is-the-best-explanation-to-the
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
What is the best explanation to the Fermi Paradox?
0631oRKgRVCAqG8Br7EI
null
54.952109
YES
d11251c01ffc
5odgxiq1cz4
false
9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "do the soldiers have to be involved in combat operations or is the intention to fight sufficient? (e.g. when occupying quiet sections of the front on the Russian border)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jan
SozY6WYJYqxzL21WdPCq
public
contract
1,717,258,274,655
which-nato-countries-will-officiall
Jan53274
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c
Which NATO countries will officially send soldiers to fight in Ukraine before the end of 2025?
null
null
296.418001
NO
5c3cedb1373e
buwe66ova3d
false
aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Clarification: this question is about them acquiring nuclear weapons in addition to the ones they already have, yes?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tricky Duck
AM0Pl9CFNaMo8a3iXzT6
public
contract
1,717,258,473,377
will-nauru-acquire-nuclear-weapons
TrickyDuck
https://firebasestorage.…b03-a48bf6d36fa7
Will Nauru acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
null
null
null
null
null
vsnt2tqvlso
false
UDtma0GdHvankZVH0RBQJI0HPcH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9w14ycq38kc", "label": "Jan53274", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Will do soon! I agree that length and size of operation will help make it measurable. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
James Dillard
MnHrajBT05pqRgmUecix
public
contract
1,717,258,607,969
will-china-blockade-taiwan-between
jdilla
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgQ3DNbYEPlxgQPup0iq_AO-L4Z9__n3MX3MtqVpLw=s96-c
Will China blockade Taiwan between the US election and the next Presidential inauguration?
9w14ycq38kc
null
null
null
null