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KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "*Manifest 2024 ✨🙂", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
PIzcP4xG8V0ENtLExWhC
public
contract
1,717,286,838,255
are-you-going-to-manifold-2024
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Are you going to Manifold 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
95cxf3nxop
false
kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ygykg15z5w", "label": "JonahWeissman", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " But also pretty catchy 😉", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jon Simon
28N6FFhIpP47klfDeDJk
public
contract
1,717,286,910,066
will-cnn-say-cnn
jonsimon
https://firebasestorage.…044-b37f36b0f757
Will CNN say CNN?
ygykg15z5w
0.149669
813.500495
NO
null
y4gfacucsb9
false
mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Due to the popularity, I've updated the resolution frequency to once every two weeks! First on 6/8", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Stop Punting
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,286,947,472
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
StopPunting
https://firebasestorage.…dd4-50d1db23bb5f
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
null
null
276.024404
YES
rw9d4b5tba
btg701agebw
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "cc: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "label": "Gabrielle", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "ahem ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "label": "JamesGrugett", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "label": "ian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "label": "SG", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 👋 expect me to ask you about this next time I see you ;) ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,287,073,850
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
null
null
1,025.222535
YES
8bca377e66b7
6grvas3auo2
false
dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "e5gk9wahha", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " What do you mean? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ReeMARKable
ve2DjbUNGEB5h3IzK1zB
public
contract
1,717,287,205,590
nba-finals-dallas-mavericks-vs-bost
ReeMARKable
https://firebasestorage.…198-b06ea07e9f66
NBA Finals: Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics (EXACT SERIES OUTCOME)
e5gk9wahha
null
null
null
null
jerq5peonto
false
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "c7393gck518", "label": "VanessaKosoy", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " yes. But use of the AI must be a key method in the process.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Carson Gale
3zuxV3C8Gcu2njJMQiGp
public
contract
1,717,287,539,971
will-advanced-ai-systems-be-found-t-fa343f4b5d92
CarsonGale
https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae
Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?
c7393gck518
null
null
null
null
bkndmmnx3h4
false
GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Just got out of this, no need to have the Mana locked up.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nathan Wei
m0Xx7aR6bTrE9wyJ2liO
public
contract
1,717,288,060,867
will-sleep-be-needed-to-live-and-fu
nathanwei
https://firebasestorage.…47c-77836969b89a
Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?
null
0.91655
0
YES
null
yu5p58gadwe
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1 June shows:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Trump 41.0", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Biden 39.8", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "so lead of 1.2% but there can be later adjustments.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Christopher Randles
nhtqRLHoNXRXYe9bEm8m
public
contract
1,717,288,176,104
will-trump-beat-biden-in-national-p
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of June? (538)
null
0.954235
1,144.090496
YES
null
3rt7cw61n86
false
RK6Nd7IBfMVOcLekfqcN9Ys17qJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "H60HgsytAs3JPAeIzo6s", "label": "Mira", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " illiterate and innumerate aren't functions, so there's a space before and after the parentheses", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Peter Njeim
U1t6nrLFr52JiJPf04FH
public
contract
1,717,288,280,232
what-is-elon-musks-iq
PeterNjeim
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKEfIjg6agfzK10gUG7Pht9z6y3O1nV87K7pQwUqKf_0HE=s96-c
What is Elon Musk's IQ?
UsJTVR0re8cQDSCSiwQk
null
null
null
null
pdhfxqzrhce
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No trials that can convict him in June.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Christopher Randles
8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo
public
contract
1,717,288,649,590
what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
104.230606
NO
bb9b10d23571
kmmvxc9jz9
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "SpaceX is now targeting June 6th, with a launch window opening 7am CDT.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris Billington
THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv
public
contract
1,717,289,174,680
in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
null
0.574427
9,343.201057
NO
null
wu7a56uin9d
false
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kmmvxc9jz9", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Ok, that’s great.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Predictor 🔥
THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv
public
contract
1,717,289,392,979
in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
kmmvxc9jz9
0.574427
88.44147
YES
null
7iz2h90i50s
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3", "label": "UniversalFC", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Some of the matches for today are not correct.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The Official
028a6RvwdTE8vDtjlJGW
public
contract
1,717,290,135,365
major-league-soccer-mls-2024-regula
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
Major League Soccer (MLS) ⚽ 2024 Regular Season Matches
null
null
29,881.102654
NO
df080d6e048f
zb4x9jmlixb
false
G4JTSx4yXAYll9JkJOj0z0qNNBt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "m719wqei9un", "label": "Shai", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " If you think of the corporate world as meritocratic and IQ as synonymous with merit I guess your reasoning makes sense, but to me the first is subjectively incorrect and the second is much less reductive than that. IQ is one factor among many. The most important factors for success as far as I can tell are effective use of aggression, which benefits from high IQ but isn't equal to it, and getting along with people who have resources.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jessica Evans
U1t6nrLFr52JiJPf04FH
public
contract
1,717,290,364,044
what-is-elon-musks-iq
JessicaEvans
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ09N-L0VcH3A2_jFbvwzXuPQH7Z8dtC_qkPe9VUC3kHfs=s96-c
What is Elon Musk's IQ?
8v2pltf3fmd
null
null
null
null
l5avhslpw1o
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yes let's hang", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
PIzcP4xG8V0ENtLExWhC
public
contract
1,717,290,806,355
are-you-going-to-manifold-2024
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Are you going to Manifest 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
76rn0jdiajv
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5cvnp3cb43e", "label": "Cactus", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " n/a is fine if you want", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
WIoyACQ9aht6Id4cuHGX
public
contract
1,717,290,900,492
from-now-will-google-announce-layof-ca3633be3d78
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
From now, will Google announce layoffs of >=0.5% of workers before the end of 2023?
9rjxe3flmhj
null
null
null
null
9fhiwv4c00d
false
4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Tripping/uk-general-election-how-many-seats-hy0ljfgvfj", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "cumulative market for the other side", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tripping
eqDqMfh1IAkMAHLrvT2Q
public
contract
1,717,290,923,891
will-the-conservatives-tories-win-m-4f8a1f93b653
Tripping
https://firebasestorage.…25f-2823bd2dce88
Will the Conservatives / Tories win more than 200 seats at the next UK general election?
null
null
null
null
null
krdplbhslwa
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "can someone confirm that the 3 at 1% resolve no and figure out if the 4th one is yes or no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
CwMcNYGZxKgJgTWE26X2
public
contract
1,717,290,930,741
uefa-champions-league-202324-finals
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
UEFA Champions League 2023-24 Finals - All market dashboard
null
null
null
null
null
2f879ds207c
false
St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "l7yznbnmayl", "label": "vitamind", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Thanks for the suggestion. I just added the definition to the question description.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
DismalScientist
n8KOgKpO0keSlkxuxmnk
public
contract
1,717,290,983,174
will-biden-make-any-gaffes-during-h
DismalScientist
https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e
Will Biden make any gaffes during his next press conference?
qd7rwhxihm
null
null
null
null
96y4gwl6rbg
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"All of the above\" (but most commonly because I want to read resolution criteria before betting)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nat
FqLzLGRgQeTv9697j0QI
public
contract
1,717,291,178,548
why-do-you-click-on-markets-on-the
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
Why do you click on markets on the home page?
null
null
null
null
null
jfwoynrmbu
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " now that June season has stated, would you consider resolving to NO any of these names who aren’t in Masters this month?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ClubmasterTransparent
srtH0vZbB15pnT7ezJTn
public
contract
1,717,291,357,680
who-will-be-1-in-masters-league-for
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Who will be #1 in Masters League for any amount of time in the first half of 2024?
null
null
133.88941
YES
5d3cc4150edc
qsvdau7t7q
false
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "krdplbhslwa", "label": "jacksonpolack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I watched the match and didn’t see anything hanging out.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Predictor 🔥
CwMcNYGZxKgJgTWE26X2
public
contract
1,717,292,134,939
uefa-champions-league-202324-finals
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
UEFA Champions League 2023-24 Finals - All market dashboard
krdplbhslwa
null
24.840823
NO
ba2b4b06200f
mo30srldkp
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8pvfrh1ej5n", "label": "Arky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " It's probably a reference to economics being labeled as right-wing by the market.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Plasma Ballin'
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,292,437,583
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
8pvfrh1ej5n
null
529.468239
YES
fe4488ef81bd
ekfcx7s58w
false
T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38141611/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38141611/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tony Gao
8oV5ZvXrWiLZ287tzTZX
public
contract
1,717,293,567,420
will-invitro-gametogenesis-be-used
TonyGao
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c
Will in-vitro gametogenesis be used to produce a functional embryo by 2028?
null
0.47641
94.465832
YES
null
i64rl691ua
false
5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I haven't looked in detail but seems plausible that this work qualifies: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10701-024-00755-9#Abs1", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10701-024-00755-9#Abs1", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jacob Pfau
bmNZIbnFi6AJcdJCN4Ti
public
contract
1,717,293,744,466
will-the-logical-induction-paper-be
JacobPfau
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9AcHAinEt-V5Xi8pbj83HmY8nWf1vkc_FfNTDr=s96-c
Will the 'Logical Induction' paper be built on by 3+ theory or ML papers before 2025?
null
0.203182
16.004716
NO
null
hv8f0h7fkcr
false
IlFjjkJWHeX82APj8XBaLf6xBzp1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Glad I was able to come back from the brink this season", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Arcmage7000
QkhtfWDaZcHew77lvsW9
public
contract
1,717,293,869,749
will-i-demote-to-platinum-at-the-en
Arcmage7000
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKKr_9RTvqPbWHRCYxHnS2QoP6rkU7lvKUMekEIaoBhp0Q=s96-c
Will I demote to Platinum at the end of this month? (May 2024)
null
null
null
null
null
j9qig8rztrm
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FfhuTumZk_J.png?alt=media&token=52cb5217-f214-4b57-afa4-464c2b194ac7", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
DqChZRobOppl6HDnHVnv
public
contract
1,717,294,896,367
will-there-be-an-official-hundreds
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will there be an official Hundreds of Beavers video game released by the end of 2027?
null
null
null
null
null
yhxl81jkvxg
false
6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Website currently says \"PLEASE NOTE: Currently in Pre-order, ships late May.\" Despite it being June now.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I guess you've been able to order them all May, though...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
James Baker
3c0CFhgLX7QMGbBXIfe5
public
contract
1,717,294,980,266
will-i-be-able-to-buy-mealsquares-2
JamesBaker3
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c
Will I be able to buy MealSquares 2.0 in May?
null
null
null
null
null
6ua2zzohyrw
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"Evidence-based\" is left-coded language, but both sides claim that their views are based on evidence, and their opponents' views aren't. So this really comes down to which side labels entire domains of human knowledge as the opposing wing. The mainstream position on the American right is that climate science, most social sciences, and any branch of history related to marginalized groups are left wing. Many also throw in evolutionary biology and modern medicine. Is there anything comparable to this on the left? Yes, there are people on the far left who do this (particularly with economics), but it's nowhere near as mainstream on the left as it is on the right.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Plasma Ballin'
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,295,006,010
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
null
null
529.468239
YES
fe4488ef81bd
n79eh6m7a3j
false
gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 2", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Traveel
YBrWo0qxVdoTfu0AzoOq
public
contract
1,717,295,091,884
daily-coinflip-u9uchxy9cq
Traveel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c
Daily coinflip
null
null
null
null
null
ri86znrpqx
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Traveel", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Traveel", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 2, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4062135", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4062135", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4062137", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4062137", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: n79eh6m7a3j.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
YBrWo0qxVdoTfu0AzoOq
public
contract
1,717,295,097,152
daily-coinflip-u9uchxy9cq
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Daily coinflip
null
null
null
null
null
0e6qn644d7cb
false
oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "z7ux1y4lb9e", "label": "EvanDaniel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I'm sorry I missed it up. is there a way I can make it dependent? otherwise I'll just deal with it lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
barak
9sJX6EGlxsYMjwO7gC4x
public
contract
1,717,295,099,081
how-many-people-will-attend-baraks
barak
https://firebasestorage.…490-ba585c49c2ba
How many people will attend @barak's Manifest session: Repolarize American Politics
e056z93zwcr
null
null
null
null
pxr4dcqczql
false
yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Reviews from people I recently successfully dragged to contra:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"I really really [liked it]. And honestly I wasn't expecting to\"", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"Omg ok [contra dance in Oakland] is AMAZING. Thank you for trying to get me to go. I love it.\"", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" } ], "type": "doc" }
Daniel Filan
cRUeKdYm3bZPgjlS3f6D
public
contract
1,717,295,101,907
how-many-manifest-attendees-will-i
DanielFilan
https://firebasestorage.…6a0-6889d0558a2e
How many Manifest attendees will I see at contra on the 6th?
null
null
null
null
null
oqw1eq12zg
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Traveel", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Traveel", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 2", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: n79eh6m7a3j, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4062137", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4062137", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature 8b6357abd9c1cdaaceacaca173ef58febdbf9ed0ccebe3d171a72583591091414cfc0cfea020bf4efd7d272f6307ef59024f475b71763bb3b97ccf75aa6030147108e1e407fea60ee5e9c23fae3e2efd2eacf169bc536abbd15b5ee0878f7d71)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
YBrWo0qxVdoTfu0AzoOq
public
contract
1,717,295,132,811
daily-coinflip-u9uchxy9cq
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Daily coinflip
null
null
null
null
null
ovs8lwkk2n
false
oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I had more than 20 attend my session today at Less Online, more narrowly about San Francisco politics. The slides are at ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "http://bit.ly/less-online", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "bit.ly/less-online", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
barak
9sJX6EGlxsYMjwO7gC4x
public
contract
1,717,295,210,482
how-many-people-will-attend-baraks
barak
https://firebasestorage.…490-ba585c49c2ba
How many people will attend @barak's Manifest session: Repolarize American Politics
null
null
null
null
null
q3pewkd7u8j
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This one is difficult. If you don't count outliers, I think it would be right wing, but Maoist China and Stalin's Russia killed a loooot of people. Those two alone may be enough to turn this into left wing.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Plasma Ballin'
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,295,321,481
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
null
null
529.468239
YES
fe4488ef81bd
ku1z7cewd98
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ukow47onz5", "label": "Jacobmpp", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " This is a good point, I'm switching my vote.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Plasma Ballin'
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,295,526,939
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
8yf3onrymha
null
529.468239
YES
fe4488ef81bd
10aczm21bl2
false
W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "0e6qn644d7cb", "label": "barak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Not that I know of without re-creating it from scratch.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Evan
9sJX6EGlxsYMjwO7gC4x
public
contract
1,717,295,716,031
how-many-people-will-attend-baraks
EvanDaniel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c
How many people will attend @barak's Manifest session: Repolarize American Politics
e056z93zwcr
null
null
null
null
7f7ctnb7tt9
false
HnyzqGs3sdhBeabLBhGhPgP4i3y2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jmeqqb7dqne", "label": "Nat", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Definitely seems resolvable to me. I have no stake in this market.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
NGK
S4rQ5U2xAD9d1qRAOzwI
public
contract
1,717,296,267,029
will-dear-moon-launch-before-2032
NGK
https://firebasestorage.…0f0-9ab0e24c4f4f
[Dear Moon Mission] Will dearMoon successfully launch before 2031?
vyczh3etixj
null
null
null
null
fwqgk5qhaom
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "p14g20hp3xn", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " the classified documents case in Florida has a pro trump judge who is delaying the trail a lot and giving serious consideration to motions to dismiss, for example due to selective prosecution. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So seems about right to me. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Daniel
aCQHTHa3WTOfz5bJMnst
public
contract
1,717,296,469,333
will-all-three-of-trumps-remaining
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
Will all three of Trump's remaining criminal cases actually go to trial?
p14g20hp3xn
null
null
null
null
avan3w63sks
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jeqjrto41h", "label": "nuclearD", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " New York has issued ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.law.com/newyorklawjournal/2023/04/06/new-york-state-has-issued-nearly-9800-felony-charges-of-falsifying-business-records-since-2015", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "almost 10,000 charges", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " for falsifying business records over the last 10 years. I'm sure that's still less than the number of people who did it, but it's not at all an uncommon crime to prosecute.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dan
HSFwQ8o6np4QWbvBWPZg
public
contract
1,717,296,599,694
what-will-trumps-sentence-for-his-f
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
What will Trump's sentence for his hush money felony convictions include?
9sdhy6vhkhi
null
0
NO
45966ps9r9
1s28wjnft57
false
DHJfDBqL8Mc8HXSdyQoNdcoNcIm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "To all of my bullish investors and shareholders", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FzEpzfLo4Ac.50?alt=media&token=3c57bb3a-256c-47fb-bb74-477a6d4799f2", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FsAH90wh7IY.51?alt=media&token=bb865fb9-7353-4387-bb13-5bd01ee439f6", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" } ], "type": "doc" }
Arsenii Iatskar
ypJwTkaQazjEQgDsQOb0
public
contract
1,717,296,797,118
will-i-be-interning-at-tesla-this-s
iatskar
https://firebasestorage.…855-31bdf990b6a4
Will I be interning at Tesla this summer?
null
null
null
null
null
rlno1zl14if
false
DHJfDBqL8Mc8HXSdyQoNdcoNcIm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Special thanks to ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RomanHauksson", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "@RomanHauksson ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "who sold his largest NO position a month ago after learning that I didn't get in and by that brought 50 extra traders to the market", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Arsenii Iatskar
ypJwTkaQazjEQgDsQOb0
public
contract
1,717,297,180,476
will-i-be-interning-at-tesla-this-s
iatskar
https://firebasestorage.…855-31bdf990b6a4
Will I be interning at Tesla this summer?
null
null
null
null
null
6fj8mwj0rus
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I’ve reread this many times. I believe it to be ambiguous in many ways as far as I can translate it into multiple different looking algorithms, as is often the case in these type of thought experiments.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I wish such questions were written less poetically and more as an actual program code so the authors intent is clear.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
JRP
zy2pNcRMzfEVJS8rsnn3
public
contract
1,717,297,454,298
how-much-does-your-tummy-rumble-in
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
How much does your tummy rumble in anticipation of a lovely snack?
null
null
null
null
null
nlnlpkbu9d
false
En8K1OQlFiP299l0BwZTCTZzG3Q2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is there anyone specific you personally know who's going to the place, or are you just waiting for someone to go there?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Arkhos
nZwxf90Tc39ukeZKQvN2
public
contract
1,717,298,031,057
does-tong-tong-south-sudan-actually
Arkhos
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLVY-kYDY0_k6HzlIF128JQa5QLUOlY7lidjyUHL88xWRvLMRM=s96-c
Does "Tong Tong, South Sudan" actually exist?
null
null
null
null
null
0wxt4pq6lezo
false
yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " market closes in 45 minutes!!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Paper Boy
UgDySInslzxKjUX9hB1x
public
contract
1,717,298,084,899
will-may-2024-be-the-hottest-may-on
PaperBoy
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c
Will May 2024 be the hottest May on record?
null
null
null
null
null
94xxstzj5t
false
v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jbjikntyptm", "label": "MattCWilson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Unable to move Newton to Gyatt, it doesn't show up green as the other cities. Don't know why.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FNkGGuP-Ksb.png?alt=media&token=4e5dd96d-d4ad-4cfd-b471-88e66e641f9f", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
komplexkonjugat
I8PDGvVvw3NKhRk4jCz5
public
contract
1,717,298,538,322
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-91
komplexkonjugat
https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 91)
jbjikntyptm
null
null
null
null
2o9pz0kaftm
false
v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wrnge47bz8", "label": "MattCWilson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://imgur.com/a/PtbQR1x", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://imgur.com/a/PtbQR1x", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
komplexkonjugat
I8PDGvVvw3NKhRk4jCz5
public
contract
1,717,298,708,424
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-91
komplexkonjugat
https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 91)
wrnge47bz8
null
null
null
null
aea1awwzyj
false
2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "yal1q1lu7rf", "label": "Nat", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " my sense is that the best thing to do right now is to leave both open. If it turns out they are not the same rocket, then it's all good. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If they are, then in principle I can't see anything wrong with both resolving YES or NO simultaneously. Not ideal obviously but on balance seems fairer than resolving XLV (I believe the second one to be added) to NO now", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Josh Wilkes
jB64hR81vlIUuMTWQ3S9
public
contract
1,717,298,839,644
which-of-these-rockets-will-reach-o
JoshuaWilkes
https://firebasestorage.…516-65b151c295c8
Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2024?
m0su3ko4cr
null
250
YES
7240e5bb433b
fzh90h0ryt
false
hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vgwuqaumbm", "label": "RyanMoulton", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Presumably not. They are not exactly looking at semantics here...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Garrett Baker
Hb1ObYB1ONHzFFNLacMR
public
contract
1,717,299,266,065
by-the-end-of-2026-will-we-have-tra
GarrettBaker
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
vgwuqaumbm
0.46
2,439.590638
YES
null
2baunu85mw3
false
4riEolq08YSVMg6GArRX7r4u5wk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fys2EQ0vm2o.png?alt=media&token=d24e6527-c778-4eda-89c6-e5d2cbbd5df4", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Oct 12, 2023 media report that motion to dismiss was denied.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tracy Harms
hJHqIK3YOYvL655fjs0t
public
contract
1,717,299,324,070
will-twa800-crash-lawsuit-krick-v-r
TracyHarms
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKwX8bEpVTyS_SFiZjatythaw9ZQG6fsp6PuvnJiZdJOFtEaVXw=s96-c
Will TWA 800 crash lawsuit Krick v. Raytheon (Case 1:22-cv-11032-AK) be ruled in favor of the plaintiffs?
null
null
null
null
null
wst1yga0cpr
false
v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Next turn:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/komplexkonjugat/lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-92", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
komplexkonjugat
I8PDGvVvw3NKhRk4jCz5
public
contract
1,717,299,455,590
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-91
komplexkonjugat
https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 91)
null
null
null
null
null
tsvx0huxxrr
false
G4JTSx4yXAYll9JkJOj0z0qNNBt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Wait, prize points can be cashed out?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jessica Evans
bsTJu67xR32VsyitPxBI
public
contract
1,717,299,642,090
which-manifold-user-will-have-the-m-irpyuxdalv
JessicaEvans
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ09N-L0VcH3A2_jFbvwzXuPQH7Z8dtC_qkPe9VUC3kHfs=s96-c
Which Manifold user will have the most unredeemed prize points at the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
8yf2jwks99v
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tsvx0huxxrr", "label": "JessicaEvans", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Right now you can redeem them for mana or for charitable donations. There may be other prizes later but not right now", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eliza
bsTJu67xR32VsyitPxBI
public
contract
1,717,299,819,277
which-manifold-user-will-have-the-m-irpyuxdalv
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Which Manifold user will have the most unredeemed prize points at the end of 2024?
tsvx0huxxrr
null
null
null
null
v8lpcg8xyt9
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "For a market of this nature you should specify the time zone and exact time in the description for clarity, so we don't have to assume from the closing time. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eliza
bsTJu67xR32VsyitPxBI
public
contract
1,717,299,901,109
which-manifold-user-will-have-the-m-irpyuxdalv
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Which Manifold user will have the most unredeemed prize points at the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
zds769q84u
false
3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/IndrekKivirik/will-ukraine-regain-control-of-its?r=MjRh", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Related market. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MercurialGuesser
sUVbiDenRFllAs8qVWaE
public
contract
1,717,299,991,954
will-volodymyr-zelenskyy-visit-crim
OP
https://firebasestorage.…8da-0f20dd0e5cac
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Crimea before 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
r0c7adq0we8
false
h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Because I want to claim the boost ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Benjamin Ikuta
FqLzLGRgQeTv9697j0QI
public
contract
1,717,300,237,600
why-do-you-click-on-markets-on-the
benjaminIkuta
https://firebasestorage.…42c-4fd343f08410
Why do you click on markets on the home page?
null
null
null
null
null
y0xxqusdhd
false
3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Norway too. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.nrk.no/norge/flere-hundre-ukrainere-kan-fa-beskjed-om-a-reise-hjem-1.16894118", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.nrk.no/norge/flere-hundre-ukrainere-kan-fa-beskjed-om-a-reise-hjem-1.16894118", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MercurialGuesser
P28otAaubiyP3Lj1VQC0
public
contract
1,717,301,047,457
will-a-ukrainian-citizen-be-deporte
OP
https://firebasestorage.…8da-0f20dd0e5cac
Will a Ukrainian citizen be deported from the EU for the purpose of forcing them into military conscription?
null
0.4
93.329187
YES
null
cig6vkpvyqw
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "less than a week away now", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
esyh5WTH2UdkzCkeLICZ
public
contract
1,717,301,538,181
will-the-person-who-wins-poker-at-m
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the person who wins poker at Manifest 2024 be someone I consider a regular at our online poker events?
null
null
null
null
null
iwtiqo3qute
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4jokuedjw8r", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves YES, inactive creator ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
qAko70lYx3qd0SLQ50KJ
public
contract
1,717,302,025,411
will-giorgia-meloni-still-be-the-it
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Giorgia Meloni still be the italian prime minister on June 1st 2024?
4jokuedjw8r
0.983136
1,799.508478
YES
null
e8f03iybq5j
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lwgcfvkXBVaaZjay1ys8LLJuKTC3", "label": "sanyero", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Zvi hosted an talk with Patrick Mckenzie (The business of newsletters)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
87lkGGgrMKacchHN3GWr
public
contract
1,717,302,567,615
who-will-hold-an-event-or-a-present
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Who will hold an event, a talk, or a presentation at LessOnline 2024?
null
null
3,124.666445
YES
e45fc08f5098
54qkhxcrkoc
false
iGpTEc7ijZf5Nv3UUsM5G5euMnT2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves to NO, T-Series reached 1876 but not 1920.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dominic de Bettencourt
a6UWYudl5tm1rnEqeUjC
public
contract
1,717,302,911,314
will-tseries-break-the-record-for-m
dominic
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_rYabDlibjswkfie6jTwLYXt1nSx42B8oytNLxA=s96-c
Will T-Series break the record for most consecutive days as the most-subscribed YouTube channel? (by 2025)
null
0.04
8,722.846562
NO
null
fa76fwxhlp7
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "wow rediscovering ancient lore", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
nZZGKpbyoHnXuMge7frN
public
contract
1,717,303,249,628
faucet-borrow-money-forever
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Faucet. Borrow money forever.
null
null
null
null
null
qsbtxiuzmyh
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "label": "SG", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " some mana for you to make here 😆", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Genzy
r3PB7MYYuTrIVdyvw6vl
public
contract
1,717,303,263,085
in-what-month-will-china-invade-tai
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
In what month will China invade Taiwan?
null
null
null
null
null
ejfuzhr1pm
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
4eBELq1OyKCRx09WHk5Z
public
contract
1,717,303,295,773
will-openai-announce-a-model-called
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will OpenAI announce a model called GPT-4.1 before June 2024?
null
0.026786
204.906811
NO
null
e446phzvof
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "label": "SG", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " This one excludes outer islands fyi ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Genzy
k4XTBQLFuDvBljexbalv
public
contract
1,717,303,304,720
will-china-invade-taiwan-by-the-end
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
null
0.103177
1,106.120467
NO
null
gs5a2klifae
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
DMNBzVD0kHV7bw5PFR84
public
contract
1,717,303,405,632
will-manifold-sponsor-a-dougdoug-st
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Manifold sponsor a DougDoug stream in the next six months?
null
0.04
414.04033
NO
null
o5ukvrx7wq
false
jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Maybe I missed an update but: For whatever reason, IFT-4 is not planning to attempt in-orbit relight of the main engines. That means that IFT-5 must be put on a suborbital trajectory in case in-orbit relight doesn’t work. Starlink sats can raise orbit slowly, but don’t have the thrust to circularize their own orbit. (I guess one can imagine some sort of dummy sats to test the deployment mechanism, but I don’t think dummy sats should count.) See 7% chance of IFT-5 achieving orbit: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RyanTyznar/by-which-flight-of-starship-will-it", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RyanTyznar/by-which-flight-of-starship-will-it", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jess Riedel
D2sZ1UgJ9CrceBH3NUIf
public
contract
1,717,303,416,611
will-starship-ift5-carry-starlink-s
JessRiedel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c
Will Starship IFT-5 carry Starlink Satellites?
null
0.530409
1,719.383072
NO
null
zk5s0608fv
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no, inactive ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
UcUum4YDHGWExOEGvikP
public
contract
1,717,303,510,280
will-the-price-of-ethereum-be-over
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the price of ethereum be over 5,000 till the end of the May?
null
0.084427
1,035.859024
NO
null
xpli9o9g95f
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
m2KNTfjjO3zIbQPUunra
public
contract
1,717,303,546,452
will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20-da21ae1ffcdd
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will GPT-5 be released before Jun 2024?
null
0.01617
152.265385
NO
null
kp3i9a9t2lk
false
faAZQRWR2YTPZJAYEXhw56ydDHL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Define normalise pls vs establish diplomatic relations", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris Mills
f512wckJBZkk16nogz0u
public
contract
1,717,303,577,958
israel-and-saudi-arabia-will-normal
ChrisMillsc5f7
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLmttkO7a_SkKKmgvJV_wh3BtRxvZZxf0PCf1Z7MbCn=s96-c
Israel and Saudi Arabia will normalise relations before 2025
null
0.10994
1,117.501892
NO
null
fmsmshfkr8e
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves yes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
bfuHyzgdpe5nDRH9aAzW
public
contract
1,717,303,603,890
will-manifest-2024-happen-in-sf-fro
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Manifest 2024 happen in the SF Bay Area from June 7-9?
null
0.974764
1,530.912989
YES
null
v8tvpqnzm9
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Maybe this isn't exactly what you're looking for, but have you seen Timberborn?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://youtu.be/lx01nK_r-6c?si=po3Kx8ACpJfEn3vm", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://youtu.be/lx01nK_r-6c?si=po3Kx8ACpJfEn3vm", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
DqChZRobOppl6HDnHVnv
public
contract
1,717,303,642,073
will-there-be-an-official-hundreds
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will there be an official Hundreds of Beavers video game released by the end of 2027?
null
null
null
null
null
ci5gh4rt34
false
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "He has 169 points after 1/3 of the calendar and 1/3 of the sprint events. 672 points possible this year, so 224 points possible so far. In other words he's averaging 75% of possible points through 1/3 of the season.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kevin Burke
YUAdoUYXDVAMJyCCigDt
public
contract
1,717,303,830,542
will-max-verstappen-get-90-of-max-p
KevinBurke
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
Will Max Verstappen get 90+% of max points? 2024
null
0.205662
3,493.600255
NO
null
y2lu7xa2ini
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "v8tvpqnzm9", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " i have! didnt try it yet, but looks like something i'd enjoy", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "also if you watch the movie, its less about the beaver civilization, and more about killing them to survive ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
DqChZRobOppl6HDnHVnv
public
contract
1,717,303,838,434
will-there-be-an-official-hundreds
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will there be an official Hundreds of Beavers video game released by the end of 2027?
v8tvpqnzm9
null
null
null
null
2ntg0jyan7y
false
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "To get 90% he must get 605 points, or drop no more than 67 points over the course of the season. He has already dropped 55 points. If he drops 12 more points this market can resolve NO.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kevin Burke
YUAdoUYXDVAMJyCCigDt
public
contract
1,717,303,893,645
will-max-verstappen-get-90-of-max-p
KevinBurke
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
Will Max Verstappen get 90+% of max points? 2024
null
0.205662
3,493.600255
NO
null
hrixmdhwg9k
false
lwgcfvkXBVaaZjay1ys8LLJuKTC3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "e8f03iybq5j", "label": "nikki", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " True! Resolved.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Santeri
87lkGGgrMKacchHN3GWr
public
contract
1,717,303,980,523
who-will-hold-an-event-or-a-present
sanyero
https://firebasestorage.…646-eec20d51e537
Who will hold an event, a talk, or a presentation at LessOnline 2024?
e8f03iybq5j
null
122.374568
NO
cfd1131ffaea
m48zemaim2l
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Can you define \"major\"?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
GaqXvL767bZk6R63iLGQ
public
contract
1,717,304,052,813
will-a-major-corporation-be-caught
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will a major corporation be caught making false claims about the capability of AI in their product in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
aquk062ztur
false
oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I am reading GEB as a paperback because it apparently doesn't exist as a good ebook. I started reading Cordyceps on my phone.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
mongo
mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1
public
contract
1,717,304,121,327
which-of-these-books-will-i-really
mongo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7I_X--wyVrh_ZPix4FSV8YMpbXtxCdMU-qkPeUUA=s96-c
Which of these books will I really like?
null
null
null
null
null
jdg9ay0pc4
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "still ~40% around 60 traders, surely this drops as the meme interest drops too right", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
ENie9aCDA0vaKIBjDVAU
public
contract
1,717,304,229,402
will-mark-zuckerberg-grow-a-full-be
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Mark Zuckerberg actually grow a beard by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
rw1rd88knz
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "NO to 10k reviews by end of may ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FZA3zdDQXpP.png?alt=media&token=8e01178c-0206-4be8-a188-5dd3e0d839d0", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
iemBoKPrznHrkFvXDWNN
public
contract
1,717,304,423,420
what-will-be-true-about-animal-well
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
What will be true about Animal Well, the first game published by Bigmode, videogamedunkey's company?
null
null
432.641179
NO
588c2af7f114
qtuopyublmg
false
1rsoX9q5IAVFHs732Hlv7jlDTM82
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FZ_oX0A7xXn.jpg?alt=media&token=8d065414-ee68-4cb4-96cf-3cf315e6fedf", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "From the MDM discord server", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
dragooner
OJNFso0C6hcksIzTlyra
public
contract
1,717,304,424,795
will-david-chang-come-back-to-the-m
jousting
https://firebasestorage.…bf0-53aecb06deda
Will David Chang come back to the MDM Discord by June 2024?
null
0.013348
437.822136
NO
null
bxmbirf9e78
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rw1rd88knz", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " also the overwhelming positive review ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FkFLVGAHlFh.png?alt=media&token=bc2f81f0-2944-4857-85d5-95e692f9bfe8", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
iemBoKPrznHrkFvXDWNN
public
contract
1,717,304,478,750
what-will-be-true-about-animal-well
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
What will be true about Animal Well, the first game published by Bigmode, videogamedunkey's company?
rw1rd88knz
null
480.839849
YES
2ee7b22557b0
xxg7jl3q8g8
false
jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If this does not take place before 2026.8 this question will resolve to 2026.85", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does that mean it's impossible to win in that scenario? The last bucket is 2026.8 <= val < 2026.85, not <= 2026.85.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jess Riedel
qycP7JFr5c2bjf7h3HDX
public
contract
1,717,304,948,989
when-will-starship-land-on-a-launch
JessRiedel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c
When will Starship land on a launch pad?
null
null
198.006151
YES
0e0b55bec3be
uvhktql1kj
false
2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xxg7jl3q8g8", "label": "JessRiedel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " it will resolve to the last bucket ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Josh Wilkes
qycP7JFr5c2bjf7h3HDX
public
contract
1,717,305,082,318
when-will-starship-land-on-a-launch
JoshuaWilkes
https://firebasestorage.…516-65b151c295c8
When will Starship land on a launch pad?
xxg7jl3q8g8
null
58.872077
YES
666b22786c04
n7yj4dn5j2q
false
uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": "t1796140009071747091", "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "tiptapTweet" } ], "type": "doc" }
notarealuser
CKuP5LDl4wv70nTg7Yxx
public
contract
1,717,305,107,168
what-will-be-true-of-the-everyday-a
notarealuser
https://firebasestorage.…8ad-29a00de78354
What will be true of the Everyday Astronaut 's Starbase tour with Elon Musk about IFT 4?
null
null
null
null
null
mpxlb1o9ffp
false
jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "uvhktql1kj", "label": "JoshuaWilkes", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ok maybe say \"it will resolve to 2026.84\" or something then.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jess Riedel
qycP7JFr5c2bjf7h3HDX
public
contract
1,717,305,138,107
when-will-starship-land-on-a-launch
JessRiedel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c
When will Starship land on a launch pad?
xxg7jl3q8g8
null
198.006151
YES
0e0b55bec3be
6pv863k1okl
false
seF80w4NuDXRDFINDuLgJPZb4A83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This should be resolved to yes.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FAREgSvN9HS.15?alt=media&token=dc3a94e3-bcfc-41f9-b55b-02ce7d75a4da", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
celery
CwMcNYGZxKgJgTWE26X2
public
contract
1,717,305,409,748
uefa-champions-league-202324-finals
WhoamI748e
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKUqqQCy_0aaMYaUr-4Yqx9_5mI-AGwfE8G2mx2p1iLgVY=s96-c
UEFA Champions League 2023-24 Finals - All market dashboard
null
null
311.741939
YES
11d772ea0a9a
vxlj4r4hwpb
false
P7rLJmOcMDZGzqOSdPR1AdeH2Lg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "@trader Final four is live: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "nKZKsekXFSTkiIvmuSNh", "label": "/houstonEuler/-who-is-manifolds-goat-final-four-p", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
houstonEuler
jZXgDYzTWCsZTGGyFFEr
public
contract
1,717,305,419,993
who-will-win-the-manifold-goat-tour
houstonEuler
https://firebasestorage.…e7b-0ce121292ad7
Who will win the Manifold G.O.A.T. Tournament?
null
null
null
null
null
gva2tkt5jwr
false
dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nlnlpkbu9d", "label": "Arkhos", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " The latter.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
duck_master
nZwxf90Tc39ukeZKQvN2
public
contract
1,717,305,681,964
does-tong-tong-south-sudan-actually
duck_master
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fduck_master%2Flove-images%2F0P82jd00Lc.59?alt=media&token=eb4ef3fd-c16c-4725-a772-3879a67385a6
Does "Tong Tong, South Sudan" actually exist?
nlnlpkbu9d
0.600783
75
NO
null
y2r5t6wlfoh
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "In the meantime ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Ref/will-the-flo-character-from-progess", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
ClubmasterTransparent
Y0iJgtigeMPwyERQlfWA
public
contract
1,717,305,709,441
what-commercials-will-cnn-air-durin
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
What commercials will CNN air during its Biden-Trump debate?
null
null
null
null
null
o8aujxydq3m
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "87bcwe5nzsp", "label": "ClubmasterTransparent", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " o look I willed it into existence ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.carproskia.com/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.carproskia.com/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ClubmasterTransparent
Y0iJgtigeMPwyERQlfWA
public
contract
1,717,305,873,812
what-commercials-will-cnn-air-durin
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
What commercials will CNN air during its Biden-Trump debate?
87bcwe5nzsp
null
null
null
null
mcco3w4s1ad
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What's the timeframe on this?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Plasma Ballin'
NrJjqVDyXkRQV9SOtm3U
public
contract
1,717,306,082,085
will-joe-manchin-run-for-governor-o-ypw3rg3wva
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Will Joe Manchin run for Governor of West Virginia as an Independent?
null
null
null
null
null
m9a85tz695o
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "going back up a bit ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F87QxIV6-jl.png?alt=media&token=76c4fda3-dec6-4d48-a560-aa3ec93843e6", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
7X9Rj6ncF61JIWtByiJz
public
contract
1,717,306,118,077
will-manifold-engaged-users-drop-to
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Manifold Engaged Users drop to 1100 or lower before the end of July?
null
null
null
null
null
bvhhrsvcdwc
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "going back up a bit ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FVWhQNZ5Gkr.png?alt=media&token=f7f0a1f3-0182-484b-a823-5441ebb71b18", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
kVrkZ9lTKD3AiEMvFsPe
public
contract
1,717,306,124,251
will-manifold-drop-to-1000-or-lower
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Manifold Engaged Users drop to 1000 or lower before the end of August?
null
null
null
null
null
hcfogw7go4b
false
WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I am going to resolve this YES unless someone thinks that is wrong?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Zvi Mowshowitz
uh1Hz5g58IV9EeRRNEkD
public
contract
1,717,306,440,064
will-some-dpo-variant-more-or-less
ZviMowshowitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c
Will some DPO variant more or less replace RLHF by June 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
43woreqgg9u
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is there any reason this can't be resolved NO right now?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Plasma Ballin'
6I82Yl0DdWxVPj2qUDIC
public
contract
1,717,306,567,589
will-brian-kemp-change-his-mind-and
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Will Brian Kemp change his mind and enter the 2024 GOP race?
null
0.042879
2,053.623519
NO
null
2epvokwrrnn
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't think, \"Nothing particularly dramatic,\" is all that unlikely this time. It was always low last month because we knew the pivot was going to be implemented, and that was guaranteed to be dramatic. This month, we don't have any guaranteed drama. And even if there's some minor drama, it may not be considered \"particularly dramatic\" when we just got through the biggest Manifold drama since WvM.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Plasma Ballin'
SQ1vPvplbRIKJIBb4Ffc
public
contract
1,717,307,088,567
what-will-be-the-most-dramatic-even-zgrov4cuhk
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
What will be the most dramatic event on Manifold of June 2024?
null
null
162.121005
YES
3bjkniwynn
n9nyrot028
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "great art", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F0RIlABvLQa.webp?alt=media&token=83882aa5-fcbd-4d53-ac9c-5f0da39ca96a", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
nqKrkMtdF9l5Atid46g0
public
contract
1,717,307,288,255
what-will-happen-before-luffy-finds
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
👒What will happen before Luffy finds the One Piece? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
610.181676
NO
2817421e3cdb
1rbgu5kona1
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "needs more input", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
5qYZ3mce9gr9h9mWrYTA
public
contract
1,717,307,478,336
if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-63b2551162a0
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Hasan Piker?
null
null
null
null
null