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hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
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chris (strutheo)
93F8r7QKXuXO3ZM6gaE6
public
contract
1,717,307,703,405
if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-vj3fjncpdc
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Peter Griffin?
null
null
null
null
null
k6qcq6vujy
false
0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "l96p9pos3v8", "label": "JoshuaWilkes", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " reopened ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gordan Knott
hrhUdE2WToVtTV2ldmeu
public
contract
1,717,307,945,394
on-what-date-will-the-first-starlin
GordanKnott
https://firebasestorage.…14a-c87addf6031a
On what date will the first Starliner crewed launch happen?
l96p9pos3v8
null
155.05876
YES
7mfjpqd33l
kf05yb85q6
false
0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "e0x2t23ub8i", "label": "mint", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " yeah", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gordan Knott
hrhUdE2WToVtTV2ldmeu
public
contract
1,717,307,954,212
on-what-date-will-the-first-starlin
GordanKnott
https://firebasestorage.…14a-c87addf6031a
On what date will the first Starliner crewed launch happen?
e0x2t23ub8i
null
155.05876
YES
7mfjpqd33l
u53luw8bh4
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "l5avhslpw1o", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " yay", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ernie
PIzcP4xG8V0ENtLExWhC
public
contract
1,717,307,992,387
are-you-going-to-manifold-2024
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
Are you going to Manifest 2024?
l5avhslpw1o
null
null
null
null
k7nn4eclr4q
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sv0erafk2qh", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " wooohoo", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ernie
PIzcP4xG8V0ENtLExWhC
public
contract
1,717,308,003,761
are-you-going-to-manifold-2024
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
Are you going to Manifest 2024?
sv0erafk2qh
null
null
null
null
99vkw68v6nd
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolution of GPT-5 and Q* answers ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3", "label": "Sss19971997", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris Billington
nCwMMA0Dyqe0lGYbMLE0
public
contract
1,717,308,024,046
what-is-true-about-gpt2chatbot
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
What is true about gpt2-chatbot?
null
null
44,380.186411
NO
8bde8c1181c6
3tunmtgayoo
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I resolved the streaker and penis options to NO because there is no news of any such events at the championship, as there would be if they had actually occurred. There are a few tweets and a reddit post claiming there were streakers, but they in fact show only fully-clothed pitch invaders.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Plasma Ballin'
CwMcNYGZxKgJgTWE26X2
public
contract
1,717,308,051,187
uefa-champions-league-202324-finals
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
UEFA Champions League 2023-24 Finals - All market dashboard
null
null
245.737775
NO
a490627bfcd0
6ajohi8ld0l
false
lPaDAupCtChR8WXM83HmDCWOI4X2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "76rn0jdiajv", "label": "jacksonpolack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I think thats the best action given the lack of information needed to make a resolution. Could you help to resolve as NA?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Cactus
WIoyACQ9aht6Id4cuHGX
public
contract
1,717,308,157,550
from-now-will-google-announce-layof-ca3633be3d78
Cactus
https://firebasestorage.…52c-d5d42de19aed
From now, will Google announce layoffs of >=0.5% of workers before the end of 2023?
9rjxe3flmhj
0.15975
14.188894
YES
null
fachoneh69q
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The goals were scored by Dani Carvajal, born in Spain, and Vinícius Júnior, born in Brazil. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Plasma Ballin'
CwMcNYGZxKgJgTWE26X2
public
contract
1,717,308,211,994
uefa-champions-league-202324-finals
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
UEFA Champions League 2023-24 Finals - All market dashboard
null
null
245.737775
NO
a490627bfcd0
6rtv8x4gof7
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "related but not direct arb", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "IObyXQAuLvvmxKAaEEJ6", "label": "/strutheo/who-will-destiny-debate-or-have-a-d", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
mu0tcUZVbnwc6ezmXcbv
public
contract
1,717,308,322,568
which-of-these-people-will-destiny
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which of these people will Destiny talk to before the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
3fj84zzcvag
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tsvx0huxxrr", "label": "JessicaEvans", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " the \"plan\" is to be able to cash them out to USD eventually, too", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pat Scott🩴
bsTJu67xR32VsyitPxBI
public
contract
1,717,308,425,992
which-manifold-user-will-have-the-m-irpyuxdalv
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Which Manifold user will have the most unredeemed prize points at the end of 2024?
tsvx0huxxrr
null
924.322334
YES
kia78zace3
tbewrsf2jq
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6pv863k1okl", "label": "WhoamI748e", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Is the 0.90 the xG number? What source is this from?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Plasma Ballin'
CwMcNYGZxKgJgTWE26X2
public
contract
1,717,308,485,044
uefa-champions-league-202324-finals
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
UEFA Champions League 2023-24 Finals - All market dashboard
6pv863k1okl
null
245.737775
NO
a490627bfcd0
3mhus66u3pn
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fmsmshfkr8e", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " not yet it doesnt!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pat Scott🩴
bfuHyzgdpe5nDRH9aAzW
public
contract
1,717,308,492,099
will-manifest-2024-happen-in-sf-fro
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Will Manifest 2024 happen in the SF Bay Area from June 7-9?
fmsmshfkr8e
0.983009
226.294834
NO
null
5p62rq63o8f
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Do you mean as opposed to just using the betting buttons on the home page? Generally it's just because I want to read the description before betting.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Plasma Ballin'
FqLzLGRgQeTv9697j0QI
public
contract
1,717,308,809,457
why-do-you-click-on-markets-on-the
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Why do you click on markets on the home page?
null
null
null
null
null
8wvxrjs9rkc
false
iqqOmBcHRTOl4aioSWFmn59xkwl1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "d8cka2ih987", "label": "ChristopherRandles", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " why wouldn't it resolve as N/A in this scenario? Note: Same happens in legal juries. If there is not enough evidence to convict. The answer becomes simply \"I don't know\" and there is no resolution. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eric
5xxeSOVmWVacydE8zoLC
public
contract
1,717,308,917,946
will-mrbeasts-main-channel-be-the-m
Shifbru
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLd6GPm0Dli1vymkoPadzweMIXwL4jA34xzFTBVPtCfXqc=s96-c
Will Mrbeast’s main channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel on June 1st 2024?
eavf0e1bfo
0.014114
3,392.128777
YES
null
vtjbz50oob
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I will carry this to the poll if you make me. But in what universe, what planet, what neighborhood is this a question that sheds light. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ClubmasterTransparent
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,717,309,315,645
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
null
null
2,090.570122
NO
3492687fa606
s75cnuf8nh
false
HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "To clarify the last point- \"OpenAI employee\" I am loose with this, basically anyone sourcing their salary from them. IE a security guard who's technically an outsourced contractor but still effectively an employee of theirs. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Bandors
i57b1Cjvm2Z0qvgqx9Fz
public
contract
1,717,309,358,667
will-there-be-a-terrorist-attack-ag
TimothyBandors
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c
Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?
null
0.134157
381.851135
YES
null
wgohsd5821
false
iGpTEc7ijZf5Nv3UUsM5G5euMnT2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8wvxrjs9rkc", "label": "Shifbru", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I don't think this market needs to be held to the same standard of evidence as a criminal trial. People seemed to be betting based off of the available data on Viewstats, so no one was clearly misled. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dominic de Bettencourt
5xxeSOVmWVacydE8zoLC
public
contract
1,717,309,404,025
will-mrbeasts-main-channel-be-the-m
dominic
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_rYabDlibjswkfie6jTwLYXt1nSx42B8oytNLxA=s96-c
Will Mrbeast’s main channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel on June 1st 2024?
eavf0e1bfo
0.014114
4,495.281789
YES
null
lvdio5adjpf
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "mcco3w4s1ad", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I think he has to decide within the next week: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://thehill.com/homenews/4690234-manchin-west-virginia-governor/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://thehill.com/homenews/4690234-manchin-west-virginia-governor/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
NrJjqVDyXkRQV9SOtm3U
public
contract
1,717,309,527,385
will-joe-manchin-run-for-governor-o-ypw3rg3wva
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will Joe Manchin run for Governor of West Virginia as an Independent?
mcco3w4s1ad
0.22
883.941126
NO
null
0ynmz8hq45ac
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "mcco3w4s1ad", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Actually, I guess within the next day or two? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"The West Virginia Democrat needs to decide whether to run as an independent for governor — or to keep his current Senate seat — by the weekend, at least 60 days before the Aug. 1 deadline for filing for an independent campaign, according to secretary of state’s office.\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
NrJjqVDyXkRQV9SOtm3U
public
contract
1,717,309,706,740
will-joe-manchin-run-for-governor-o-ypw3rg3wva
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will Joe Manchin run for Governor of West Virginia as an Independent?
mcco3w4s1ad
0.22
883.941126
NO
null
62k8bovdjof
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Jesus vs Darwin and Newton vs Einstein would both be pretty interesting matchups in the finals.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
nKZKsekXFSTkiIvmuSNh
public
contract
1,717,309,975,124
-who-is-manifolds-goat-final-four-p
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Final Four)
null
null
1.986169
YES
0b8ca19072a2
kotmdsg1to
false
6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Jesus v Darwin would be the funniest final", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
James Baker
nKZKsekXFSTkiIvmuSNh
public
contract
1,717,310,067,986
-who-is-manifolds-goat-final-four-p
JamesBaker3
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c
🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Final Four)
null
null
9.399945
YES
0b8ca19072a2
q4jayevrhbi
false
iqqOmBcHRTOl4aioSWFmn59xkwl1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wgohsd5821", "label": "dominic", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " the main point here is that N/A is a useful tool that we have at our disposal which can resolve in cases of uncertainty - and it happens fairly often on Manifold :) I think it all comes down to how certain do we want to be that we're resolving correctly. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm not the judge on the matter, but considering market resolutions should be fair, clarity that the resolution has been met is a worthwhile thing to consider. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eric
5xxeSOVmWVacydE8zoLC
public
contract
1,717,310,168,292
will-mrbeasts-main-channel-be-the-m
Shifbru
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLd6GPm0Dli1vymkoPadzweMIXwL4jA34xzFTBVPtCfXqc=s96-c
Will Mrbeast’s main channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel on June 1st 2024?
eavf0e1bfo
0.014114
3,392.128777
YES
null
ltnnypbg5er
false
iGpTEc7ijZf5Nv3UUsM5G5euMnT2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "q4jayevrhbi", "label": "Shifbru", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " True, but normal users can't even do N/A anymore, mods have to be the ones to N/A. So I think there's a push for less N/A resolutions. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dominic de Bettencourt
5xxeSOVmWVacydE8zoLC
public
contract
1,717,310,679,122
will-mrbeasts-main-channel-be-the-m
dominic
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_rYabDlibjswkfie6jTwLYXt1nSx42B8oytNLxA=s96-c
Will Mrbeast’s main channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel on June 1st 2024?
eavf0e1bfo
0.014114
4,495.281789
YES
null
8vwnh9ph0t3
false
9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2ntg0jyan7y", "label": "KevinBurke", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Good that someone is keeping count!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Fedor
YUAdoUYXDVAMJyCCigDt
public
contract
1,717,310,710,839
will-max-verstappen-get-90-of-max-p
Fedor
https://firebasestorage.…d6d-1b2c6bbfbc21
Will Max Verstappen get 90+% of max points? 2024
2ntg0jyan7y
0.023452
27.299604
NO
null
f353o7gtt5g
false
9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I deem it self evident that Taiwan was not invaded.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Fedor
geeInl5OVyn1a9lG4dG8
public
contract
1,717,310,833,200
will-china-invade-taiwan-in-the-202
Fedor
https://firebasestorage.…d6d-1b2c6bbfbc21
Will China invade Taiwan in the 2024 March-May window?
null
0.01
220.145914
NO
null
huicu9205yi
false
kbq4NwpSM3PCZrV0x6xz8Bby7592
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "@FairlyRandom min=0 max=99", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Linus Tang
UQ5hvba4AabBUY3T0enT
public
contract
1,717,310,864,438
will-a-random-integer-in-0-99-be-le
LinusTang
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIGpNPVP_z4vXz-DKnnsWFNX6FdhwGs63edpTebbg_2OzA=s96-c
Will a random integer in [0, 99] be less than my Rice Purity Score on August 17, 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
0cbabu6bpqu7
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/LinusTang", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@LinusTang", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 0 and 99, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4062661", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4062661", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4062663", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4062663", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: huicu9205yi.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
UQ5hvba4AabBUY3T0enT
public
contract
1,717,310,866,366
will-a-random-integer-in-0-99-be-le
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Will a random integer in [0, 99] be less than my Rice Purity Score on August 17, 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
a7gjrjg3ey5
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/LinusTang", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@LinusTang", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 48", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: huicu9205yi, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4062663", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4062663", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature b04971e8c7c95a510a5ba19885bce70b994e3dab44e1f41b545f8895527d56d8f400a00ea85c707dd36c7e3e3e244ec102b1133626f13cad52315d65aa3d0cb1f21dfa8f7e3f7e4b4c71861ca61541fa8cd15960b275dcdd9e0ba87cbf9ab116)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
UQ5hvba4AabBUY3T0enT
public
contract
1,717,310,912,686
will-a-random-integer-in-0-99-be-le
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Will a random integer in [0, 99] be less than my Rice Purity Score on August 17, 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
x398a1lozh
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "@mods resolves no see comment ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
vj8lsf9QNZjlxN8GXE6j
public
contract
1,717,311,000,126
will-sleep-no-more-actually-close-i
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Sleep No More actually close in May 2024?
null
0.018837
853.05986
NO
null
gs4vu5jpcmj
false
iqqOmBcHRTOl4aioSWFmn59xkwl1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ltnnypbg5er", "label": "dominic", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " thanks for noting! Didn't know that wrt users can't N/A :) ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Also heard there is a push for less N/A resolutions on manifold, but seems that initiative came more from trying to make sure people have clear resolution criteria. It seems in this case that although the resolution criteria was quite clear, it ended up coming down to a breathtakingly narrow time range. Which also means that in order to make a judgement call, you'll either need better time-resolution, or remain uncertain of the outcome 🤷 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eric
5xxeSOVmWVacydE8zoLC
public
contract
1,717,311,577,029
will-mrbeasts-main-channel-be-the-m
Shifbru
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLd6GPm0Dli1vymkoPadzweMIXwL4jA34xzFTBVPtCfXqc=s96-c
Will Mrbeast’s main channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel on June 1st 2024?
eavf0e1bfo
0.014114
3,392.128777
YES
null
2aoa7mf2fq4
false
G4JTSx4yXAYll9JkJOj0z0qNNBt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Where is Jasmine Sherman?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jessica Evans
SEb7Z4dFGhIP9ACMTxri
public
contract
1,717,311,835,727
which-nonmajor-candidate-for-us-pre
JessicaEvans
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ09N-L0VcH3A2_jFbvwzXuPQH7Z8dtC_qkPe9VUC3kHfs=s96-c
Which non-major candidate for US President will get the most votes in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
m9q2t2mbeq
false
G4JTSx4yXAYll9JkJOj0z0qNNBt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does it count as yes if it blows up?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jessica Evans
I29bnrHdAsZcJ8WHOXIW
public
contract
1,717,311,888,754
will-boeing-starliner-launch-with-c
JessicaEvans
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ09N-L0VcH3A2_jFbvwzXuPQH7Z8dtC_qkPe9VUC3kHfs=s96-c
Will Boeing Starliner Launch with Crewed Mission before July 2024
null
null
null
null
null
1chv5ri0doh
false
v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "c1o9s6apxuo", "label": "SaviorofPlant", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I'm not sure I understand. If your instance is a situation where we find no solutions, then we are dead. Right? In that case, we didn't get the thing I claimed was critical to our survival. If we would have, I claim we would not be dead.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Assume you are starving on a desert island with me and I have an apple. If I say that apple is critical to your survival, what I mean is 'there's no other food around, if you don't eat this apple, you're going to die'. Could an orange from Georgia give you sustenance as well? Sure, but I'm betting you aren't going to make it to Georgia.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It is sufficient, though not necessarily necessary for our survival.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "To write it as explicit as possible, I would say it's a parlay of three bets.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": 1, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If we produce an economy where at least half the GDP comes from the deliberate human verification of cryptographic personal constitutions whose purpose is to align/control decentralized intelligence, then artificial intelligence will not kill us. (To be clear here, I am claiming this is a solution to the general control problem that will require a new paradigm in AI.)", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1", "label": "EliezerYudkowsky" }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " is correct about how hard it is to align ML based systems. I don't think we are going to get that figured out in time.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If you harness half the intellectual labor on the planet into programming philosophy into a GOFAI system you can create an interpretable machine that scales education by orders of magnitude and tricks people into learning why they shouldn't do dumb things by paying them crypto to answer questions.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "orderedList" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "To be clear, if this approach gains wide adoption, I think history will say that humanity almost drove itself to extinction when it developed ML and that at the last moment a symbolic constitution system came along that seemed pretty dumb at first but economically rewarded users for teaching it things and learning from it. This gave everyone a job that AI couldn't take. This radically changed how information was spread through society. All of a sudden, teenagers and homeless people could make money just by learning about x-risk. Since the world was better able to communicate the circumstances of frontier ML, society was able to organize global action to ban further development that would put humanity at risk. This was accepted by many because symbolic systems have now surpassed where ML progress died peacefully.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Krantz
v2ldtBJkt0vnN8Fx7uG4
public
contract
1,717,312,111,204
is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha
Krantz
https://firebasestorage.…804-fed8dc551e61
Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?
uxe9b331f7f
0.563938
9,849.37059
YES
null
2gzj2v46fqp
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1", "label": "RemNi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Resolves NO.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
c4RdjCSlvGibiFBPnMPV
public
contract
1,717,312,360,594
will-sora-be-released-before-june-2
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will Sora be released before Jun 2024?
null
0.035592
3,194.081657
NO
null
j9g47pzysuk
false
GLzpZPkoRWcZv7I1sbSGv9mPZlB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does this include Yahoo Japan? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
capy
t3fRLHKE2mMVvIAd2dtq
public
contract
1,717,312,630,237
will-yahoo-disappear-before-2034
capybara
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinDoran%2F6rlhLww5NS.35?alt=media&token=c2bbf567-0a54-4425-9ebd-1cec295a7660
Will Yahoo disappear before 2034?
null
null
null
null
null
s9m0e4q81
false
yxNesNHjvvYDJHtbR8A77Z1SUFy2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "OPPO SuperVOOC 240W is 20V/12A. USB-C 240W is 48V/5A.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Scott
5i183nUEHknF6bv3nCJB
public
contract
1,717,313,092,633
will-it-be-possible-to-get-a-240w-u
ScottW
https://firebasestorage.…6eb-278099032e7d
Will it be possible to get a 240W USB-C power adapter by the end of 2024?
qul1vkl0yc
0.459714
60.884547
NO
null
yq881x4sxcc
false
0rSFGxcgLrYIhoTRw7RPZJFjtWg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What are you writing? And did I overhear you talking about this at LessOnline?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
keltan
6Gakf8HFwgl7sudHZQvM
public
contract
1,717,313,208,880
will-gpt5-be-able-to-be-a-coauthor
keltan
https://firebasestorage.…f46-d899cb67c45b
Will GPT-5 be able to be a decent co-author?
null
null
null
null
null
ibbeiwba1xj
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6ua2zzohyrw", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " this market is unanimous that economics is right-wing.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Also, \"evidence-based\" is centrist.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,313,221,060
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
6ua2zzohyrw
null
2.759356
YES
16df8c8459d1
trsepuf7tfo
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I've been waiting 3 months to get 8k Mana back. it resolves on the 7th or else it was all for naught. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
bfuHyzgdpe5nDRH9aAzW
public
contract
1,717,313,299,187
will-manifest-2024-happen-in-sf-fro
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Will Manifest 2024 happen in the SF Bay Area from June 7-9?
fmsmshfkr8e
0.983009
8,803.265432
YES
null
53f3qqztx39
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6grvas3auo2", "label": "ReeMARKable", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " exactly one of these options will be correct, all of the others will be wrong. So when someone buys, say, \"Celtics win 4-0“, this should not only increase the probability of that option but decrease the probability of all others, so that the total remains at 100%.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There is a setting when creating the market that does exactly that, although I don't think you can change it now that the market is already open.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
ve2DjbUNGEB5h3IzK1zB
public
contract
1,717,313,536,513
nba-finals-dallas-mavericks-vs-bost
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
NBA Finals: Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics (EXACT SERIES OUTCOME)
e5gk9wahha
null
null
null
null
jrcveznwgq
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "agwvyweg0jo", "label": "colorednoise", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I added it for you.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eliza
ophX4TO8SIU15wpFpzxJ
public
contract
1,717,313,582,204
which-questions-will-we-answer-duri
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Which questions will we answer during the Manifold Founders' Panel at Manifest 2024?
h9ubhzzgfng
null
null
null
null
fbs3sklzwcb
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "95cxf3nxop", "label": "jonsimon", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " that makes it perfect for Manifold. (This is not a good thing.)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
28N6FFhIpP47klfDeDJk
public
contract
1,717,313,641,470
will-cnn-say-cnn
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will CNN say CNN?
ygykg15z5w
null
null
null
null
9mu6ss1o96w
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Free mana.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
iqSm3mgj7QOgV78jEEZZ
public
contract
1,717,313,785,696
will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-be-the-nex
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next elected President of the United States?
null
0.051083
52.475897
NO
null
4l0fkjuv95s
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7wsfec8ynrs", "label": "Goodgulf", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Trump is not actively trying to get us all killed.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
EZvXSqTW12VYZkJ0TW1p
public
contract
1,717,313,975,888
if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-652d3b2f163f
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Yann Lecunn
7wsfec8ynrs
null
null
null
null
b3lcy9trf0a
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I usually only bet on things I already feel familiar with.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
singer
8CiYVkdKHdnNm6LzNFfC
public
contract
1,717,314,087,783
do-you-do-background-research-befor
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
Do you do background research before you bet?
null
null
null
null
null
89gi0o8i3n7
false
h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Unmatched ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Benjamin Ikuta
ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl
public
contract
1,717,314,684,528
will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c
benjaminIkuta
https://firebasestorage.…42c-4fd343f08410
Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024?
dahyikq7zdh
null
null
null
null
o7kofljkkxd
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I welcome anyone to take this over if they want to, and if nobody takes it up i'll probably make a similar market with less starting options tomorrow", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
4a4wZyG8OwmFyXSWMRZL
public
contract
1,717,315,124,128
manifold-leagues-megamarket-season-44e1da24b291
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Manifold Leagues Megamarket: Season 13 (May)
null
null
429.985737
YES
b111077b84b4
kbj90ouy4hl
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "trsepuf7tfo", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " yeahhh at the rate I'm betting ill be OOM by manifest", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pat Scott🩴
bfuHyzgdpe5nDRH9aAzW
public
contract
1,717,315,290,907
will-manifest-2024-happen-in-sf-fro
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Will Manifest 2024 happen in the SF Bay Area from June 7-9?
fmsmshfkr8e
0.983009
226.294834
NO
null
hj7cyc787z6
false
y5epDloYrxdc6yqnC1VjnTuVCal2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tbcgl5wjdy", "label": "WinstonWalker", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " good question!", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "GPT-4o - 7/10", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bair
jsfpa2pfLysEYg4X5HqC
public
contract
1,717,315,482,931
will-gpt5-like-to-delve
Bair
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYUvh0DyDuiAdCtqW5aBt7A1JYDjm0gzHvntw_W5g=s96-c
Will GPT-5 like to delve?
tbcgl5wjdy
0.618407
22.128539
YES
null
jzdqr531u9m
false
70XtVnSH4tVSkwUPm7qagqjnppd2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does Beast Games count?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Seungju Yang
QM7PVsL6X1eeC2hZCzui
public
contract
1,717,315,782,176
what-will-mrbeast-do-in-a-video-in
SeungjuYang
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL3J8qAJ1QysGPhiYjneCQhGAPEoltjJwmtggU_gCcU=s96-c
What will MrBeast do in a video in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
duygpwwjp3j
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "limit up if you want more NO shares 👍 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pat Scott🩴
Us4sT2qKQm5zBIRywMr1
public
contract
1,717,316,110,990
will-manifold-be-acquired-by-polyma
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Will Manifold be acquired by PolyMarket by end of 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
rg9hxf33ldj
false
zDEVlPkmUlUVkjVC79f9J0fpnR32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This \"sabotage\" and \"trying to get killed\" is just too much. LeCun is an intelligent person that obviously wants good things. He just seems to think that 1) transformative AI is far away, and 2) alignment is easy enough when it's needed. But he's a scientist first, and when he sees bad things actually happening, he's in a 100 times better position intellectually than e.g. Trump to do something useful. Yes, under some hard takeoff scenario that is not nearly good enough, but so is not whatever Trump would do.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Goodgulf
EZvXSqTW12VYZkJ0TW1p
public
contract
1,717,316,708,273
if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-652d3b2f163f
Goodgulf
https://firebasestorage.…815-4b5f7a6bf6e8
If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Yann Lecunn
7wsfec8ynrs
null
null
null
null
d73gj00gkx4
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ub9isfod78", "label": "Stralor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Wiki says there were nine in May. Time to resolve NO.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm
public
contract
1,717,316,951,907
will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will I eat ass in the next 24...?
pu3ho0n4hse
null
525.522624
NO
66e833ac6e0a
w3d6q9tuf6r
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rg9hxf33ldj", "label": "Goodgulf", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Linus Pauling was a Nobel Prize-winning chemist, just like LeCun is a Turing Award winner for AI capabilities research.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Linus Pauling was really, really dumb about a closely related but distinct subject than the one he was an expert in, biochemistry - he believed in consuming massive amounts of vitamin C for your health.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yann LeCun is really, really dumb about a closely related but distinct subject than the one he's an expert in, AI safety - he believes corporate law could control AGI (among other batshittery).", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Both of them persevere because they are not aware of their ignorance in the relevant field. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The difference is that Pauling made expensive pee, and LeCun might get humanity extinct.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
EZvXSqTW12VYZkJ0TW1p
public
contract
1,717,317,363,774
if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-652d3b2f163f
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Yann Lecunn
7wsfec8ynrs
null
null
null
null
x9uywovmuh
false
PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "x1ke81s6fhn", "label": "keltan", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I don't think so. Haven't seen it", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
CyfralCoot
y7Phb3fpaxj92XQN8jnK
public
contract
1,717,318,096,415
will-a-new-dimension-be-added-to-mi
CyfralCoot
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c
Will a new dimension be added to Minecraft in 1.22 or 1.23?
x1ke81s6fhn
null
null
null
null
2ceur7u6xvl
false
1UMqHoSZoAOXk1aOuGci0Dkhjds1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "it is the perfect time to buy stocks because our comeback will be legendary", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Zahir efe Bekar
YYhKqWHXtCwyPiJcNXu1
public
contract
1,717,318,455,487
admiral-agenda-stock
ZahirefeBekar
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLB_6Aw0P2RD8U6IKbrz1c2u4pBXJuDIJHafCNayiItE3zFcA=s96-c
Admiral Agenda Stock
null
0.639924
60.268322
YES
null
i9m663u2ivj
false
X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " last 3, thanks again.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Daniel Tello
Lvd9V6TujTdJ1ha8BD5x
public
contract
1,717,318,560,266
when-will-bitcoin-break-75000
deagol
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c
When will bitcoin break $75000? (which day?)
v3y7j3026i
null
3,000.75419
NO
a9b61195c2fa
9eybuezxp86
false
h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "psnujli0hk", "label": "mongo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " six (not counting a girl who turned out to only like me as a friend) ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Benjamin Ikuta
ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl
public
contract
1,717,318,997,099
will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c
benjaminIkuta
https://firebasestorage.…42c-4fd343f08410
Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024?
lfqji68o30d
null
null
null
null
bcghoi5jf54
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This is \"at least at popular as\" and not \"exactly as popular as\", right?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
RemNi
A2lKvHaqJ9OgEjvWyVSb
public
contract
1,717,319,724,859
will-virtual-and-augmented-reality
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will virtual and augmented reality be as popular in 2060 as smartphones were in 2021?
null
0.604874
46.249709
YES
null
6ao9tp89xod
false
b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"Grabby aliens\" is a subset of \"first in our light cone\", isn't it?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Muga Sofer
NyA5UxR0NvsVc2yIEfIs
public
contract
1,717,319,793,224
what-is-the-best-explanation-to-the
MugaSofer
https://firebasestorage.…ea7-19aebfd949c8
What is the best explanation to the Fermi Paradox?
null
null
null
null
null
hm4ouq74tim
false
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kp0kmnthi3a", "label": "24a", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " If it involves military actions, then yes. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ihor Kendiukhov
nCNQbc7lYhCUaHjbA4vF
public
contract
1,717,319,806,674
will-there-be-a-military-operation
IhorKendiukhov
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?
kp0kmnthi3a
0.315586
19.234326
NO
null
em0egmwrb74
false
ZCgKPUuoQrfM4KVEQOcxAzn9EgN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "nice article I am very interested in your article. very good", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.amijayaprinting.com/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "Percetakan Murah Jakarta Timur", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Digital Printing
osLoqejy9uuso1wk2R0N
public
contract
1,717,319,846,656
will-mrbeast-hit-200-million-subscr
DigitalPrinting
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIuCjNDqQpMKkz24nbchxNGtkXXFoxK0vwzD7O8p2ko3bftVJ3o=s96-c
Will MrBeast Hit 200 Million Subscribers by Halloween?
null
null
null
null
null
2llqkv22xh4
false
6NjgcSqIYqdg4mID9976SHPNLAl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vtjbz50oob", "label": "ClubmasterTransparent", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Umm, you can't just censor questions you don't like. I created it because I thought it was likely to resolve YES with 2 other questions. In what way does \"Cybertruck is ugly on purpose\" shed light on anything?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Patrik Cihal
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,717,320,198,102
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
patrik
https://firebasestorage.…184-1140b99c8021
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
vtjbz50oob
null
1,849.456184
NO
fdb3f2d22989
fcdoef4bbyj
false
VFzSD3qUntb9Pu0giXBvjkmkqsh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Would getting an appeal bond be counted as a legal victory?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pjfkh
po5P7afYMej7Nqp5waB6
public
contract
1,717,320,498,343
will-trump-be-pardoned-or-have-a-si
Pjfkh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI8G8CptLN8rZpkc1wuPjxiTtiehCNWr6XuloMSvvz6=s96-c
Will Trump be pardoned OR have a significant legal victory in the New York case before the election?
null
null
null
null
null
kqjdv4dp4m
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So the most likely version right now is The Secret Wars of Multiverse and Annihilation.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
Z0sdCaiiwKVovcNsyCk3
public
contract
1,717,320,590,219
what-words-will-be-in-the-subtitle
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
What words will be in the subtitle of "Avengers 5"?
null
null
null
null
null
az5awlcl7tw
false
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "As of June 2nd, we have USD 1.48 billíon ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.web3isgoinggreat.com/charts/top?dateRange=2024", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.web3isgoinggreat.com/charts/top?dateRange=2024", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Market for current month: ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/MartinModrak/total-value-of-crypto-stolenscammed-6b1bf3d71866", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
Martin Modrák
lG97v4rWfufHBCuB78v7
public
contract
1,717,321,688,832
total-value-of-crypto-stolenscammed-0a397d2755e7
MartinModrak
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
Total value of crypto stolen/scammed throughout 2024 as tracked by Molly White/W3IGG
null
null
null
null
null
etbeprqye3n
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " thanks for resolving ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Daniel
Lvd9V6TujTdJ1ha8BD5x
public
contract
1,717,321,779,645
when-will-bitcoin-break-75000
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
When will bitcoin break $75000? (which day?)
v3y7j3026i
null
191.834227
NO
a2f16669feff
mlo6s2a8w1n
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "label": "Charlie", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " This can resolve to Pachuca, thank you!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The Official
vyQpTJ1ZluHMCldKk4ja
public
contract
1,717,322,217,170
who-will-win-concacaf-champions-cup
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
Who will win CONCACAF Champions Cup
null
null
11,909.625334
YES
50ccb11dabe4
kb55cyik9hj
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Just to confirm, game goals only (regular time + extra time) and not penalty shootout goals? Thank you!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The Official
8oYe5cYMSLlHz9qtMXYL
public
contract
1,717,322,757,200
will-harry-kane-score-more-goals-at
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
Will Harry Kane score more goals at EURO 2024 than the entire teams of Poland and Albania combined?
null
null
null
null
null
vjsunzqkqy
false
G4JTSx4yXAYll9JkJOj0z0qNNBt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does this include weird corner cases like neither existing anymore?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jessica Evans
Wk2fqgSqI2bnTQHvFZwx
public
contract
1,717,322,912,327
will-homosexual-couples-have-the-sa
JessicaEvans
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ09N-L0VcH3A2_jFbvwzXuPQH7Z8dtC_qkPe9VUC3kHfs=s96-c
Will Homosexual couples have the same rights as Heterosexual couples worldwide by 2050?
null
null
null
null
null
1yv2yk0j5h1
false
M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kb55cyik9hj", "label": "10thOfficial", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " penalties during the game time count, penalty shootout don’t. Own goals don’t count as well ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Łukasz Bartoszcze
8oYe5cYMSLlHz9qtMXYL
public
contract
1,717,323,078,562
will-harry-kane-score-more-goals-at
ukaszBartoszcze
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c
Will Harry Kane score more goals at EURO 2024 than the entire teams of Poland and Albania combined?
kb55cyik9hj
null
null
null
null
fux7ej28w2s
false
3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Will you resolve to ‘no‘ if NATO countries have been bombed, but not invaded?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MercurialGuesser
0GPirzZyPCBm7A54C0UI
public
contract
1,717,324,067,552
will-the-russian-federation-invade
OP
https://firebasestorage.…8da-0f20dd0e5cac
Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
null
0.217771
62.58511
NO
null
xkao8ybwsu
false
YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wnpbfuklzsa", "label": "huw", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Could we find it online?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Krypton
ekxzLuAa4kpTikG7Vwi0
public
contract
1,717,324,161,814
will-apple-release-next-generation
Krypton
https://firebasestorage.…367-9c72fe74bf31
Will Apple release next generation headphone(e.x AirPod max 2) in WWDC 2024?
wnpbfuklzsa
null
null
null
null
ktbd47y4mfq
false
3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does construction/ownership of a port count? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Would you consider the Solomons to have a “naval base”?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MercurialGuesser
G4uut6l5N78Vmx93m014
public
contract
1,717,324,201,365
will-china-announce-a-deal-to-build-d50b42074f42
OP
https://firebasestorage.…8da-0f20dd0e5cac
Will China announce a deal to build a naval base in the Western hemisphere by 2025?
null
0.198925
61.278775
NO
null
usuozhoc9t8
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A few clarifications: ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What is the method of killing?", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How old is each animal? ", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If spared, would they be living well in captivity or hardship in the wild? ", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Which species are they?", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Do these individual animals have friends/family?", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
FGk0s7hcRvHROofrmlWs
public
contract
1,717,324,282,011
would-you-rather-kill-a-monkey-or-a
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Would you rather kill a monkey or a tortoise?
null
null
null
null
null
27x6d2cfp1n
false
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A related market: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-e11b3ab4b5c7?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-e11b3ab4b5c7?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ihor Kendiukhov
A9xoR5h2gtYM1mRsLKoV
public
contract
1,717,324,357,255
will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-8tzbee63i1
IhorKendiukhov
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
null
50
19.234326
NO
null
ivls5asr1y
false
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A related market: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-8tzbee63i1?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-8tzbee63i1?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ihor Kendiukhov
WKccMXY8ApRiFcqBw7S7
public
contract
1,717,324,374,855
will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-e11b3ab4b5c7
IhorKendiukhov
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?
null
0.217896
19.234326
NO
null
p95atij4rnl
false
O9I4q6Z8eqMV3rBAuPqhwTxgiY83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "shouldn't the title be \"... by September\" given you set the resolution date to the end of August?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
pzet
AfnSVV1wVfw6DANJtRWE
public
contract
1,717,324,438,726
will-i-become-a-master-on-codeforce
pzet
https://firebasestorage.…532-5891b98d9414
Will I become a master on Codeforces by August?
null
0.82
984.00444
NO
null
ui1ago6j4ao
false
O9I4q6Z8eqMV3rBAuPqhwTxgiY83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This seems to be their CF account for anyone looking: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://codeforces.com/profile/LucaLucaM", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://codeforces.com/profile/LucaLucaM", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
pzet
iLhJW4k6hJv7ZZtAJd8F
public
contract
1,717,324,565,556
will-i-get-2100-on-codeforces-in-20
pzet
https://firebasestorage.…532-5891b98d9414
Will I get 2100+ on codeforces in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
5mt50znqocy
false
6NjgcSqIYqdg4mID9976SHPNLAl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "p95atij4rnl", "label": "pzet", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I guess it has more interpretations (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://chatgpt.com/share/b49b7aee-33c1-4184-8c4e-48b67cdcbcb7", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://chatgpt.com/share/b49b7aee-33c1-4184-8c4e-48b67cdcbcb7", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "). I can edit the title sure.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Patrik Cihal
AfnSVV1wVfw6DANJtRWE
public
contract
1,717,324,617,965
will-i-become-a-master-on-codeforce
patrik
https://firebasestorage.…184-1140b99c8021
Will I become a master on Codeforces by August?
p95atij4rnl
0.82
7,800.434375
YES
null
yjzkvfrts1h
false
6IRkXMH8FDQ5bGiAABHD9NHulSz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xkao8ybwsu", "label": "Krypton", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Sorry, that was a figure of speech. It's likely that Apple already have a lot of information to cover in the keynote judging by:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": 1, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "They should have a whole new OS category to cover:", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "frameBorder": 0, "id": null, "label": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Predict/will-apple-announce-visionos-2-at-w", "start": null, "title": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There are a lot of rumours about the amount of AI stuff they're going to announce", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "orderedList" } ], "type": "doc" }
Huw
ekxzLuAa4kpTikG7Vwi0
public
contract
1,717,324,716,604
will-apple-release-next-generation
huw
https://firebasestorage.…e4c-c37c05b8222a
Will Apple release next generation headphone(e.x AirPod max 2) in WWDC 2024?
wnpbfuklzsa
0.387094
80.611298
NO
null
bkkwvds4nim
false
O9I4q6Z8eqMV3rBAuPqhwTxgiY83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Link to account: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://codeforces.com/profile/stefdasca", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://codeforces.com/profile/stefdasca", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
pzet
aa9HMBrJEeKcZGDHYVHe
public
contract
1,717,324,719,894
will-stefdasca-get-gm-on-codeforces
pzet
https://firebasestorage.…532-5891b98d9414
Will stefdasca get GM on codeforces in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
glq2vojqrxq
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ibbeiwba1xj", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "this market is unanimous that economics is right-wing.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Which means absolutely nothing. \"Monday\" was almost unanimously ranked as right-wing, does that make Monday a super right-wing concept? It's a market where you're forced to assign every option to one side, usually based on vibes. If we were actually seriously evaluating options, most of them would be labeled centrist or apolitical. Also, if any of the three fields of study I mentioned in my comment (climate science, social science, history of marginalized groups) were added, they would be universally labeled as left-wing.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Also, \"evidence-based\" is centrist.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I agree that it doesn't actually belong to the right or the left, as I stated in my comment. Though I imagine it would also be nearly universally labeled as left-wing if it were added here, since things that are actually centrist/apolitical can easily be unanimously assigned to one side.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Plasma Ballin'
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,325,944,057
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
6ua2zzohyrw
null
529.468239
YES
fe4488ef81bd
brsvrlond4u
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7e61sgjolzm", "label": "Mqrius", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " more dates added!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jack
2UzgopRizl6MxAZTObMW
public
contract
1,717,326,345,852
when-will-there-be-a-4th-starship-l-e57470f27683
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
When will there be a 4th Starship launch?
7e61sgjolzm
null
344.486914
NO
17928fa67bcd
wq5a2nxk5w
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Number of traders = 55", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Closing percentage odds = 56%", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Odds > traders ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Therefore resolves NO ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thank you to everyone who took part in this experiment :) ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F3TJ2Y3aVCa.png?alt=media&token=0d03a3aa-ba33-4360-a694-1effd1de9896", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
liO81A8ROlMc3gLKPK2D
public
contract
1,717,327,156,374
will-this-market-have-a-greater-num
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will this market have a greater number of traders than percentage odds by June 2024?
null
0.555438
52.681943
YES
null
fr161sfd20a
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Am mainly hoping for a response from ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "gvXolnv2zaMtNfYQcXyxWkY3Y1X2", "label": "NiklasBergstrom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " who's the only substantive, active, non-bot YES holder lol but will resolve NO tomorrow if they don't respond", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nat
S4rQ5U2xAD9d1qRAOzwI
public
contract
1,717,327,617,819
will-dear-moon-launch-before-2032
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
[Dear Moon Mission] Will dearMoon successfully launch before 2031?
vyczh3etixj
null
null
null
null
rm5n08ls7t
false
0wZ0MmJzG9RL7OnjbqYydNeZXjv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Would this have counted, had it been Sam Altman instead of Elon Musk? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.nysun.com/article/elon-musk-says-two-mentally-ill-people-tried-to-assassinate-him", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.nysun.com/article/elon-musk-says-two-mentally-ill-people-tried-to-assassinate-him", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
colorednoise
A9xoR5h2gtYM1mRsLKoV
public
contract
1,717,327,740,413
will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-8tzbee63i1
colorednoise
https://firebasestorage.…7c5-3d0b33690749
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
null
0.433679
111.145941
YES
null
anlr31i28xm
false
Rcnau899SsWFEuL0ukY1hMGkath2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rm5n08ls7t", "label": "colorednoise", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " There’s a good chance Elon will count as “CEO of a major AI lab” soon", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Alexander Miller
A9xoR5h2gtYM1mRsLKoV
public
contract
1,717,327,845,025
will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-8tzbee63i1
AlexanderMiller
https://firebasestorage.…b54-8f8eda824b90
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
rm5n08ls7t
null
null
null
null
zwq1dm4g31
false
Rcnau899SsWFEuL0ukY1hMGkath2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "“Any deliberate action to kill” does this count things that wouldn’t typically be counted as assassinations, like domestic violence?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Alexander Miller
A9xoR5h2gtYM1mRsLKoV
public
contract
1,717,327,956,892
will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-8tzbee63i1
AlexanderMiller
https://firebasestorage.…b54-8f8eda824b90
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
null
null
null
null
null
fm090bgccg9
false
QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "h72achcatl", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Agreed! Currently it's at 567%…", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
M L
jZFIM2hzFAcgErBnEClL
public
contract
1,717,328,258,344
why-is-donald-trump-a-threat-to-dem
ML12d1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c
Why is Donald Trump a threat to Democracy (Top 5 Reasons)
h72achcatl
null
95.671177
NO
37056448a6ef
5usfq6ox0u3
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "glq2vojqrxq", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " sure, I see your point. Thanks.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,329,017,053
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
6ua2zzohyrw
null
2.759356
YES
16df8c8459d1
sv6vp2q24fj
false
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Predictor/which-team-will-win-the-nba-finals-fd3163334bf5", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
Predictor 🔥
y5eGY1CFGGllUatsiXMx
public
contract
1,717,330,346,072
who-will-win-the-2024-nba-champions
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
Who will win the 2024 NBA Championship?
null
null
null
null
null
tkup3cghmm
false
3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It’s already been recognised by the European Parliament as Russian-occupied since 2022.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/16/council-of-europe-designates-transnistria-russian-occupied-territory/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/16/council-of-europe-designates-transnistria-russian-occupied-territory/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MercurialGuesser
zQlXUWtO3C0seMdRebur
public
contract
1,717,330,495,071
will-russia-control-transnistria-by
OP
https://firebasestorage.…8da-0f20dd0e5cac
Will Russia control Transnistria by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
0f6ee0qcbrs
false
s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F8H7U23o1wN.png?alt=media&token=353fabd5-9872-4a7e-bea1-671423a14e99", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" } ], "type": "doc" }
Quantum Gambler
1EThWNpPwqwzgRimLRhi
public
contract
1,717,331,008,464
acx-2024-who-will-win-the-2024-mexi
Mirek
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055
Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? [ACX 2024]
null
null
932.756174
YES
7c44c8f0fff1
zdo6f9vz549
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "w3d6q9tuf6r", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " and ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "zDEVlPkmUlUVkjVC79f9J0fpnR32", "label": "Goodgulf", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you both make really good points ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I would still lean away from Yann because his policies could make it much more likely that the take off happens within his own presidency rather than whoever gets elected next", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
EZvXSqTW12VYZkJ0TW1p
public
contract
1,717,331,063,528
if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-652d3b2f163f
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Yann Lecunn
7wsfec8ynrs
null
null
null
null
yg1urftq4ob
false
rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "94xxstzj5t", "label": "komplexkonjugat", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " The loyalty factor, probably. Never had that situation come up before.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Matt C. Wilson
I8PDGvVvw3NKhRk4jCz5
public
contract
1,717,331,073,709
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-91
MattCWilson
https://firebasestorage.…c23-a3b854776865
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 91)
jbjikntyptm
null
1,187.909672
YES
ow16nnlx6
nja6w0ora2
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You don't get a second chance with AI X-risk, and Yann seems quite likely to consistently and competently sabotage the AI safety efforts of others", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Moreover, even if you think Trump would deal with it even worse, Yann's likely policies could make it much more likely that the take-off happens within his own presidency rather than whoever gets elected next", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/strutheo/if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-652d3b2f163f", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX
public
contract
1,717,331,318,132
who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
176.425471
NO
8743cdb50b02
njnxmp6mh7
false
WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Maybe I’m missing a point but why would cross-site arbitrage be a problem in the first place ?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mich
ophX4TO8SIU15wpFpzxJ
public
contract
1,717,331,504,841
which-questions-will-we-answer-duri
Mich
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c
Which questions will we answer during the Manifold Founders' Panel at Manifest 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
qqnca0z6jn
false
7HquJmzgMBSQAwiDETZ2qlmCFqU2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2", "label": "jskf", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves NO", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Yehor
b1ZohoLLL41epi7QI3Ct
public
contract
1,717,331,745,204
metaculus-will-russia-have-control
yehor
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLp4PxOznAw-TOQcR7Kqbe8qS7xrPI-NkdF7zbyqSXdIOA=s96-c
[Metaculus] Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?
null
0.015849
94.202404
NO
null