p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.9880874266190505 | ll27rkuZDV1Io8kkOrtL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9880874266190505 | will-john-beshir-still-hold-the-top | 511.7490796722482 | {"NO": 15.5, "YES": 344.7509203277518} | Will John Beshir still hold the Top Trader leaderboard position on February 28th at 23:59:59 UTC time. | 1646092740000 | KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15.5, "YES": 346.5} | 0 | 4.744919428128122 | True | play | YES | public | 1645486754364 | nic | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 39.31960071198588, "YES": 358.099727868764} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888} | 0 | 1646092776681 | 100 | nic_kup | 1645486754364 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi1nJQXNQ3PA-wqCPsU9jqSly3kAwGkSulM3lRmYw=s96-c | 8 | 1715658626291 | 0 | 0.9880874266190505 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7845367270222653 | kQ7l7Nd3dI3PIUUhdAS9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7845367270222653 | does-she-like-me | 4708.3406736382585 | {"NO": 285.45574288191915, "YES": 798.2035834798227} | Does she like me? | 1646136000000 | fdlTRaJ43Db6A3DRWOFnNOf2CGu1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 302, "YES": 819} | 0 | 4.660207298796124 | True | play | NO | public | 1645488637807 | Sam | These are the facts I know about our relationship:
0. So I woke up 42 minutes late and resulted in us missing the train with people from the university club to the convention and she wasn’t angry at all.
1. She pretty much stayed with me at all times at convention, even when she met her other friends.
1.1 She gave up ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 503.01368442183855, "YES": 959.8421412997053} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646136409878 | 100 | Cyril | 1645488637807 | 0 | 35 | 1715658598145 | 0 | 1646134724852 | 0.7845367270222653 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9761822621022005 | yvlsFUqzfYmqgL5mARn7 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9761822621022005 | will-russia-enter-kiev-by-march-31s | 14448.552860065409 | {"NO": 1295.8897728618063, "YES": 10185.557367072784} | Will Russia enter Kiev by March 31st, 2022? | 1648785540000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 976, "YES": 10323} | 0 | 4.619465724455134 | True | play | YES | public | 1645490414382 | Charles Vorbach | This question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Kiev, Ukraine before March 31st, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, "entering Kiev" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1771.9314821792957, "YES": 11343.893080088044} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888} | 0 | 1645843506194 | 100 | CharlesVorbach | 1645490414382 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 59 | 1715658963991 | 0 | 1645816669705 | 0.9761822621022005 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9778894728063985 | g3lH7sWKpS0jD8GdsIlD | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9778894728063985 | will-russia-enter-kiev-by-april-30t | 1255.5676148233645 | {"NO": 67.25345063541985, "YES": 433.17893454121577} | Will Russia enter Kiev by April 30th, 2022? | 1651377540000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 41, "YES": 435} | 0 | 4.710261292114267 | True | play | YES | public | 1645490540363 | Charles Vorbach | This question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Kiev, Ukraine before this date according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, "entering Kiev" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 74.41248770194989, "YES": 494.87003816492467} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000264575131106459, "YES": 0.0009643650760992956} | 0 | 1645843499972 | 100 | CharlesVorbach | 1645490540363 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 11 | 1715658512495 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529498664}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226925}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | False | 0.9778894728063985 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9765457761127323 | XcMFxcNmrgnQsGk8w1qw | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9765457761127323 | will-russia-enter-kiev-by-september | 5417.0480953399965 | {"NO": 348.3518244946772, "YES": 2412.6000801653267} | Will Russia enter Kiev by September 30th, 2022? | 1664596740000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 311, "YES": 2521} | 0 | 4.633064958532088 | True | play | YES | public | 1645490618111 | Charles Vorbach | This question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Kiev, Ukraine before this date according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, "entering Kiev" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 422.8336400871215, "YES": 2728.3827910616183} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964} | 0 | 1645843493447 | 100 | CharlesVorbach | 1645490618111 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 26 | 1715658299103 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529491670}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226784}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | False | 0.9765457761127323 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17081174691190784 | Xww5X7bgUn2yQFQ5LxYq | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.17081174691190784 | will-the-city-of-cambridge-massachu | 743.4579822416014 | {"NO": 602.5, "YES": 68.04201775839863} | Will the city of Cambridge, Massachusetts extend its mask mandate prior to March 1, 2022? | 1646110800000 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 602.5, "YES": 93.5} | 0 | 4.686986071526526 | True | play | YES | public | 1645492858610 | Peter Berggren | This market will resolve to "Yes" if, prior to 12:00 AM March 1, 2022 Eastern Standard Time, the city of Cambridge, Massachusetts releases a news announcement, on the website https://www.cambridgema.gov/covid19/News, including an amendment to its temporary emergency order requiring the wearing of masks in indoor public... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 610.5949598554266, "YES": 277.131257103363} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1645742888724 | 100 | PeterBerggren | 1645492858610 | 0 | 9 | 1715658309320 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492101}] | ["politics-default"] | 1645512862636 | 0.17081174691190784 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
KQKTLE7B3rKhvNucrKah | write-an-original-haiku-about-predi | 136.01831457465786 | Write an original haiku about prediction markets | 1645966740000 | gT23IPmlexZCfA3vKzQoqZPcsUo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.994178193305898 | True | play | fed861675ab5 | public | 1645493546443 | Simon Wisdom | Write a 3 line haiku in the form 5 syllables, 7 syllables, 5 syllables. I will pick my favorite. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645994445644 | 460.0000000000001 | SimonWisdom | 1645493546443 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaE2FJbjLwJkR82LddVO61YX3b4VNv-hvEdICgXg=s96-c | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "52e8353100c7", "prob": 0.21440741706982688, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.947849511616825, "userId": "gT23IPmlexZCfA3vKzQoqZPcsUo1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 43.77713274366459, "textFts": "", "contractId": "KQKTLE7B3rKhvNucrKah", "createdTime": 1645493546656, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 1645936187564 | {"fed861675ab5": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4150885482550662 | o7RqRURSrMNOmFXTyUUn | {"NO": 214.64631358382724, "YES": 36.51994988322937} | 1 | will-manifold-markets-receive-a-gra | 545.1250098868171 | {"NO": 278.5, "YES": 79.69627775962985} | Will Manifold Markets receive a grant from the Survival and Flourishing Fund's H1 2022 round? | 1663311540000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 278.5, "YES": 84.5} | 0 | 3.175766884201886 | True | play | YES | public | 1645497322895 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We're applying to https://survivalandflourishing.fund/sff-2022-h1-application ! Resolves YES if we win any amount of money from SFF. Reason's I'm low on this at the moment: - They seem to fund more established orgs (as based on the length of their ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 310.8903650134629, "YES": 177.91141260808791} | {"creatorFee": 1.5376347900314355, "platformFee": 0.2546466123682486, "liquidityFee": 1.5278796742094913} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1670624533502 | 121.5278796742095 | Austin | 1670624538913 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 14 | 1650314756789 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1663271703665 | 1670624536877 | 0.81 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18418572021160282 | Q2rdmcjj2z1b2szBjLCR | {"NO": 83.91390536272911, "YES": 1874.9940245104644} | 0 | will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-at-o | 2179.062913875232 | {"NO": 144.99999999999997, "YES": 146.44743374959302} | Will Nvidia stock end the year at or above $300/share? | 1671857940000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 145, "YES": 146} | 0 | 4.3239364512571905 | True | play | NO | public | 1645498653849 | Athena | This market resolves to 'YES' if shares of Nvidia stock ($NVDA, listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange) are trading with a price equal to or greater than $300 USD per share at 4:00 PM EST (the close of regular market trading hours) on December 30th 2022 (a Friday and the final day of trading for 2022.)
Close date updated... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 222.4755070910869, "YES": 188.27330740084912} | {"creatorFee": 2.8882965032495136, "platformFee": 0.19891080504503264, "liquidityFee": 1.1934648302701958} | {"NO": 0.0007, "YES": 0.000714142842854285} | 0 | 1672825728446 | 181.19346483027022 | Athena | 1671733592163 | 0 | 23 | 1650314577199 | 0 | 3 | 22 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529569775}] | ["economics-default"] | 1671733591966 | 1645517161648 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6TMw4uKxfX1N1vo1U4N9 | which-party-will-win-the-2022-ontar | 14 | Which party will win the 2022 Ontario general election? | 1654219800000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.224558429275356 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645499610033 | Athena | Whichever party is able to form government in the 43rd Parliament of Ontario following the election on - or before - June 2nd, 2022 will be chosen as the answer to this market. If a minority government is formed, then the governing party which has the greatest number of MPPs/seats at the time the 43rd Parliament commen... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645634347087 | 280 | Athena | 1645499610033 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "222dc80aae06", "prob": 0.6943444444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 64.47473348939594, "userId": "IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.38225414155307, "textFts": "", "contractId": "6TMw4uKxfX1N1vo1U4N9", "createdTime": 1645499610236, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | True | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529470937}] | ["politics-default"] | 1645634343275 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0842069821496701 | a7yyagHRaQ54rssy4FnE | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.0842069821496701 | will-the-dc-trucker-convoy-prevent | 178 | {"NO": 156, "YES": 22} | Will the DC trucker convoy prevent me from driving to Boston on Thursday, February 24th? | 1645808400000 | 7uH1XOw7dAcuF2AbQRBZVPl7JLJ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 156, "YES": 22} | 0 | 4.86206690008866 | True | play | NO | public | 1645503346094 | journcy | This market resolves to "YES" if on Friday morning it's true that some action by the announced Washington, DC trucker convoy sufficed to prevent me leaving town to drive to Boston. This market resolves "NO" if I make it to Boston, or don't make it for reasons unrelated to the convoy.
Feb 23, 1:16am: @tigrennatenn I'll... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 170.34175060976685, "YES": 51.653112202460754} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1645777512376 | 100 | journcy | 1645503346094 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgJcq-mmrfsY8Lc5zM24HwmO8aCHr_zfJXkX5FJtA=s96-c | 9 | 1715658358997 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529494300}] | ["politics-default"] | 1645563093032 | 0.0842069821496701 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0bQBfYJpDhI8AEUEyC7z | i-fucked-up-and-resolved-the-wrong | 164.7577778208483 | I fucked up and resolved the wrong market. What should I do? | 1645678740000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.996341169892743 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645508076065 | Jenny | I accidentally closed https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-the-implied-probability-of-thi-478efb9a7eed instead of https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-the-implied-probability-of-thi. What should I do?
Feel free to suggest your own answers | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645865272683 | 600 | Jenny | 1645508076065 | 0 | 12 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c7d7df4248e8", "prob": 0.03477990427706533, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.6413428666179556, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.798698299362826, "textFts": "", "contractId": "0bQBfYJpDhI8AEUEyC7z", "createdTime": 1645508076425, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 1 | 1645575970662 | {"07e5173c9004": 45.28290258269418, "2109645088e5": 54.71709741730584} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01821045747376999 | ee4z9xgjS90dU0WDRONh | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.01821045747376999 | will-i-accidentally-resolve-this-qu | 182.94885432414435 | {"NO": 131.62037801725253, "YES": 7.430767658603116} | Will I accidentally resolve this question "yes"? | 1645775940000 | ARMEVhOiWvaqFvLASFGwHkDwohI3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 133, "YES": 7} | 0 | 4.921346343038443 | True | play | NO | public | 1645510223712 | Alex Mennen | I will resolve this market to "no". If it resolves "yes", that means I screwed up somehow. How likely is this event to occur?
Close date updated to 2022-02-24 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 137.78022692256323, "YES": 18.76454865501361} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645805814334 | 100 | AlexMennen | 1645510223712 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyFM2z_17VRw8GAHhGexJCyKLxup92j73FsxTn3=s96-c | 10 | 1715658494229 | 0 | 1 | 1645658825264 | 0.01821045747376999 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10237854013953841 | 1ZyojdyCEeD1yqyvvf11 | {"NO": 123.17739302380025, "YES": 561.8416194617721} | 0 | will-george-rr-martin-publish-an-as | 3317.72115762078 | {"NO": 1294.0107523010404, "YES": 237.23315326223428} | Will George R.R. Martin publish an ASOIAF book in 2022? | 1672527540000 | LY6zJkjFbzaZUf29CRhRCZDeoFs2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1301.02, "YES": 228.98000000000002} | 0 | 5.987821159344936 | True | play | NO | public | 1645512490350 | Valentin Manès | Resolves to YES if "The Winds of Winter" or "A Dream of Spring" are released before December 31st 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1427.2808289468715, "YES": 554.5993113358628} | {"creatorFee": 4.002866827874481, "platformFee": 0.4943553413763091, "liquidityFee": 2.966132048257854} | {"NO": 0.0009055385138137418, "YES": 0.0004242640687119285} | 0 | 1672560410902 | 142.96613204825783 | ValentinManes | 1670695063757 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi86Fl9gZNcdWF4UWLwQrStg17BJxpwDaOFG6jb2JY=s96-c | 51 | 1650313772878 | 0 | 1 | 49 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529540582}, {"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1669223920127}] | ["culture-default", "books"] | 1670695063585 | 1652298309169 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7729579217273141 | Ec5AX7QQHNOvWN8rv1l9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7729579217273141 | will-russia-invade-any-parts-of-ukr | 19089.245393208468 | {"NO": 1436.70844665282, "YES": 15968.046160138707} | Will Russia invade any parts of Ukraine besides Donetsk and Luhansk oblast before March 8? | 1646690340000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1403, "YES": 16048} | 0 | 4.617989094067799 | True | play | YES | public | 1645514307027 | Jenny | It looks like @Duncan's question is about to resolve positively. But will Russia stop at just Donetsk and Luhansk, or will they go further?
Resolves YES if Russian military has a presence within Ukraine other than in Crimea, Donetsk oblast, and/or Luhansk oblast between now and March 7 2022, 23:59, Kyiv time.
Feb 22,... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2307.653559363854, "YES": 17251.094248832345} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1645696718040 | 100 | Jenny | 1645514307027 | 0 | 44 | 1715657818620 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529478282}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226542}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1645675839884 | False | 0.7729579217273141 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9006145446403627 | zo227WjpxulgZTj2eJRL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | there-exists-a-more-elegant-way-to | 193.85022569467816 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 87.14977430532187} | There exists a more elegant way to solve fat-fingering the Resolve button than what Gmail does with a little countdown and an Undo button | 1651539199431 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 90} | 0 | 7.743970194330982 | True | play | YES | public | 1645516980390 | Daniel Reeves | (as discussed in the #features channel of the Discord) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 35.35604616610856, "YES": 106.43188515094168} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1651539199431 | 100 | dreev | 1645516980390 | 0 | 6 | 1650315033627 | 0 | 1647809973900 | 0.9006145446403627 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6512340191787852 | RBHrqIyKMsv8Ym3SLjAf | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6512340191787852 | i-test-positive-for-covid19-by-utc | 175 | {"NO": 16.25, "YES": 128.75} | I test positive for COVID-19 by UTC 13:00 on Tuesday, March 1st, 2022. | 1646139600000 | a41HDGtLseYxlhPtuH04uYVf6d32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 16.25, "YES": 128.75} | 0 | 4.910503051902949 | True | play | YES | public | 1645525709170 | Matthew | This market resolves YES if an Antigen or PCR test that I take in the next week shows a positive result.
Background:
* Saturday night there was a gathering of people at our friends' house. All attendees (10) were vaccinated/boostered, but not tested.
* Monday night, both my partner and I developed sore throats and stu... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 26.575976001832935, "YES": 142.54475613136387} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000670820393249937, "YES": 0.0007416198487095664} | 0 | 1645619058688 | 100 | Matthew | 1645525709170 | 0 | 6 | 1715658162590 | 0 | 0.6512340191787852 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7448950437650975 | FFvfGYpZGCEaL2nSdCOA | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7448950437650975 | will-the-w3igg-grift-counter-exceed | 364 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 45} | Will the "W3IGG Grift Counter" exceed $250 million in March 2022? | 1646089140000 | 5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 45} | 0 | 5.1511516743779335 | True | play | YES | public | 1645532956582 | Zhao Nan | https://web3isgoinggreat.com/ maintains a counter of the amount of money that is stolen/lost through "web3" applications (see lower right of the page).
This market resolves YES if this Grift Counter reports more than $250 million for March.
Caution: This market will be closed on Febuary 28th, so make your bets before t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 35.35604616610857, "YES": 60.41597471281913} | {"creatorFee": 0.9999999999999999, "platformFee": 0.24999999999999997, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648588118766 | 100 | ZhaoNan | 1645532956582 | 0 | 4 | 1715657841281 | 0 | 1 | 1646058932636 | 0.7448950437650975 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9444877303454797 | oxksWTxXVeggS7pYlEa4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9444877303454797 | will-i-be-able-to-not-eat-processed | 1538.3607378877766 | {"NO": 215.51853616183428, "YES": 892.1207259503891} | Will I be able to not eat processed sugar for 7 days? ("sugar free challenge") | 1646175540000 | RkgxY86BkXapNguatNnE45ZaxQG3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 183, "YES": 899} | 0 | 4.659252842439131 | True | play | YES | public | 1645533371494 | chris kux | This market resolves to yes if I don't eat - at my best knowledge - any processed sugar (only allowed exception is soy milk). Artificial sweeteners like Xylitol or Stevia are also not allowed. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 412.6897602968127, "YES": 1027.888180688052} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1646211260751 | 100 | chrislkj | 1645533371494 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fchrislkj%2FydIrfIlRbj.39?alt=media&token=de0d9748-f0ec-4844-a8e6-a316b74867c4 | 22 | 1715658695462 | 0 | 1 | 1646160926147 | 0.9444877303454797 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013350872892246079 | 49pPzgo2aJGv7gtTWoRx | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.013350872892246079 | will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-5b535bc7cf6b | 10980.441596115177 | {"NO": 3722.692256948698, "YES": 774.8661469361259} | Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $825 on February 22, 2022? | 1645563600000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3782, "YES": 253} | 0 | 4.626175094001578 | True | play | NO | public | 1645539888581 | Predictor 🔥 | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.
Trading closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.
This qu... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 4475.349248194102, "YES": 446.4187475468569} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645563635748 | 100 | Predictor | 1645539888581 | 0 | 14 | 1715656968214 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529424232}] | ["wall-street-bets"] | 1645563654215 | 0.013350872892246079 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t | suggest-features | 14559.557896995722 | Suggest features. | 253402297140000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1645540247675 | Gurkenglas | There is no reason the next feature market should wait until the resolution of https://manifold.markets/Austin/what-new-manifold-features-would-be .
I plan to resolve PROB so as to create good incentives.
For example, if someone finds a loophole and stakes M$ 10000 one second before closing time, expecting to siphon ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5376994412138206, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 5640.000000000003 | Gurkenglas | 1718818086359 | 0.1 | 0 | 81 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "348b099f8418", "prob": 0.004334429098924284, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.006313335261625285, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.450241869019401, "textFts": "", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1645540247808, "probChanges": {"day": -0.998, "w... | 75 | [{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1658529557515}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.13471611473277942 | 1718818082545 | 1701328908636 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01111198341714252 | QLWEwRt49op0CY0jc5IA | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.01111198341714252 | will-ben-landautaylor-tell-us-to-ev | 3061.595025794136 | {"NO": 2733.830387500574, "YES": 82.57458670529013} | Will Ben Landau-Taylor tell us to evacuate for risk of nuclear war before Apr 1 2022? | 1648785540000 | FPs5hzoibSUgBLOEexZTAQO4kfm1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2736, "YES": 78} | 0 | 4.632714796974052 | True | play | NO | public | 1645540549078 | Ophelia | Ben Landau-Taylor recently tweeted this: https://twitter.com/benlandautaylor/status/1495908407114702852
His blog post has a sign up form; if you sign up, hell tell you if he has decided to evacuate.
This question will resolve YES if Ben sends an email to this list telling us to evacuate, or telling us that he himself ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2800.7143328766347, "YES": 296.88690971794233} | {"creatorFee": 3.216198968234575, "platformFee": 0.8040497420586438, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1648786635254 | 100 | Ophelia | 1645540549078 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjHJ7fDIclHMksPAWYaVwA8WNC_yVZpTf-g4hNO=s96-c | 23 | 1715658142113 | 0 | 1648751464145 | 0.01111198341714252 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AQSqjYkmQv9Gk7AERSsn | how-should-duncan-resolve-russia-in | 131.88806656296117 | How should Duncan resolve 'Russia invades Ukraine' and why? | 1647989940000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.971936259517102 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645541849382 | Gurkenglas | @Duncan has stated on Discord:
Russia sending more troops into Donetsk/Luhansk will totally resolve the market yes.
Even 100 troops will be sufficient, as long as they aren't sneaky about it.
But I really want to be sure it's happening (it looks like it is, but I want to be SURE).
So, if I do not have a better source... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645570957890 | 500 | Gurkenglas | 1645541849382 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "cffc44677f91", "prob": 0.007417307542452165, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0577070123173647, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.722341473886663, "textFts": "", "contractId": "AQSqjYkmQv9Gk7AERSsn", "createdTime": 1645541849533, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529474995}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226490}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1645570952046 | False | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.888457509336706 | mahZVZIEgPqHIQGVPw29 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.888457509336706 | will-gazprom-stock-ogzpy-trade-unde | 82 | {"NO": 15.000000000000002, "YES": 67} | Will Gazprom Stock (OGZPY) trade under 5 USD at any point in March?50 | 1648763940000 | ZHksHVGImoNz8rFfEqYDMZ6l1yw2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15.000000000000002, "YES": 67} | 0 | 5.088900294929572 | True | play | YES | public | 1645542186914 | Blue Barry | Will Gazprom Stock (OGZPY) trade under 5 USD at any point in March? I will use yahoo finance as a source for the stock price. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 27.38667559781581, "YES": 77.29252228191288} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1645715468355 | 100 | BlueBarry | 1645542186914 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxk40cETag7Ve1bQF4HTKq598iW_Fh3ZCJ9I74Y=s96-c | 4 | 1715658647555 | 0 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529575198}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.888457509336706 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5722101314818504 | wkzHO7GeR9oQwVrofHpF | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5722101314818504 | will-i-receive-900-feet-of-film-ord | 229.17163623739884 | {"NO": 80, "YES": 126.82836376260116} | Will I receive 900 feet of film ordered from Novosibirsk, Russia before July 1st 2022? | 1645985100000 | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 80, "YES": 128} | 0 | 4.8311686942377055 | True | play | YES | public | 1645544049863 | Adam | I live in the United States. On 2/13/2022, I ordered a large reel of expired film from a Russian seller. It was shipped 2/14/2022. As of 2/20/2022, the tracking info provided by Почта России is "Released from Russia". Ebay has said that the estimated arrival date in March 15th, but that seems very optimistic to me, eve... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 135.27808396115017, "YES": 156.45518755938514} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1646722421133 | 100 | Adam | 1645544049863 | 0 | 8 | 1715658893313 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529511920}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529577445}] | ["politics-default", "economics-default"] | 1645728911147 | 0.5722101314818504 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29276756565844525 | J22f5h8YChzEufdMtLUg | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.29276756565844525 | will-the-average-temperature-for-th | 89 | {"NO": 57, "YES": 32} | Will the average temperature for the Twin Cities area on March 8th-14th, 2022 be greater than the Mean Average Temperature for March in that Region (33.3 degrees F)? | 1646287140000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 57, "YES": 32} | 0 | 5.05894248813302 | True | play | NO | public | 1645545716852 | Patrick Delaney | Using https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mpx
The bet is on the measured Average Temperature March 8th-14th, 2022 vs. the Mean Average Temperature for March in the Twin Cities region according to weather.gov.
Feb 22, 10:01am: Resolution will be YES/NO if greater than or equal, and PROB will be 50% if the values w... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 74.84727116268168, "YES": 48.156661019011686} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647346319588 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645545716852 | 0 | 6 | 1715657926066 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529526690}] | ["science-default"] | 0.29276756565844525 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bH6zPpf5uJfKTBKWycEB | what-joke-makes-me-laugh-out-loud | 33.48050431594754 | What joke makes me laugh out loud? | 1646175540000 | iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.996900628296145 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645547971088 | Mr Stone | This question will resolve as soon as an answer makes me at least exhale louder than normally upon reading it.
Feb 22, 5:39pm: but I will only check once every day, at 9:00 UTC. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1646203628580 | 440.00000000000006 | stone | 1645547971088 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c70621cef770", "prob": 0.37789029619127845, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 22.49063527999725, "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 37.02567277733656, "textFts": "", "contractId": "bH6zPpf5uJfKTBKWycEB", "createdTime": 1645547971390, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | 1646145093458 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.34165052823888437 | PrwDu2isJrJDbClwAGp5 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.34165052823888437 | will-grixis-shadow-be-the-most-repr | 235.85152316295884 | {"NO": 149.14847683704116, "YES": 75} | Will Grixis Shadow be the most represented deck in top thirty two of the Modern Super Qualifier on Sunday? | 1645974000000 | EIOKALSntrWw62Gd1ufAwIlpSjo2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 150, "YES": 75} | 0 | 4.816074865070793 | True | play | YES | public | 1645551071757 | andrei klepatch | Resolves Yes if MTGGoldfish identifies Grixis Shadow/"Grixis Death's Shadow" as the most prevalent archetype in top thirty two of the Modern Super Qualifier event on 2022-02-27.
Market closes at start of event. Market resolved after results are published.
Feb 28, 1:16pm: Resolving YES on the basis of https://www.mtggo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 181.8720555426984, "YES": 131.01733999357828} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1646072377816 | 100 | andreiklepatch | 1645551071757 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgHRhRjIT-07p__V9cIjlWycFHjaJpNB9BgrzYz=s96-c | 7 | 1715658125848 | 0 | 1 | 0.34165052823888437 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1713193685616429 | p2nCzs5kfPvMwgcHpnaB | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1713193685616429 | will-the-sp-500-move-at-least-2-in | 10563.142346342232 | {"NO": 2776.1166097134465, "YES": 1162.7410439443247} | Will the S&P 500 move at least 2% in either direction on February 23rd, 2022? | 1645626600000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2919, "YES": 1242} | 0 | 4.627733064591014 | True | play | NO | public | 1645551134723 | Athena | This market resolves to ‘YES’ if the S&P 500 has increased or decreased by 2% or more from February 22nd’s closing price at 4 PM EST on February 23rd. I will check the price using the Webull stock app.
Close date updated to 2022-02-23 9:30 am
Feb 22, 3:59pm: Will extend the closing time into market hours (3pm ET at t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3585.6177618685815, "YES": 1630.3229003075573} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1645650621198 | 100 | Athena | 1645551134723 | 0 | 34 | 1715658697154 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529575652}] | ["economics-default"] | 1645566408649 | 0.1713193685616429 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4648481441192971 | IWmJ462g0NmF857hkpjV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4648481441192971 | this-market-will-resolve-to-whateve-413d38cb2522 | 68.00000000000001 | {"NO": 8.000000000000004, "YES": 7.999999999999991} | This market will resolve to whatever share the person who bets the greatest amount in the linked market ends up buying. | 1646197140000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 8, "YES": 8} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1645556440280 | Garrett Baker | If this person ends up betting anonymously, it is impossible to tell if two bets were actually the same, so if the text says "x users spent M$y on YES/NO", then I will use the number y/x. If the person who bet the greatest amount bet equal amounts for YES and NO, then, in honor of Twosday, if the market volume is an ev... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 11.705383398248857, "YES": 10.9094454717002} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 100 | GarrettBaker | 1701237378214 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 5 | 1650313888548 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779615248}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1701237377598 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5680427859143398 | PU4BIiDuLDaPXMAHcT2g | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5680427859143398 | this-question-will-resolve-based-on | 871.293948071147 | {"NO": 33.70605192885307, "YES": 1} | This question will resolve based on the number of votes for the market linked below | 1646197140000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6, "YES": 7} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1645556441275 | Garrett Baker | You vote for whichever share you buy. If you vote for YES and NO, then I will use your most recent non-anonymous vote. Also, anonymous votes count, with all the gaming strategies that entails. If I see "y people bought M$xxx YES" or something similar, that counts as a vote for YES.
If YES gets more votes than NO, the... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8.544705992601507, "YES": 9.798673405109495} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 100 | GarrettBaker | 1703888100970 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 5 | 1650314571068 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779611507}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1703888100491 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9653993126572837 | beM0oj6uEAaxbPaKo9O0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9653993126572837 | if-i-publish-a-lesswrong-post-criti | 1695.6880968317323 | {"NO": 143.58878630566187, "YES": 670.7231168626058} | If I publish a LessWrong post critiquing part of Ajeya Cotra's draft report on AI timelines, will it receive over 50 karma within 72 hours? | 1646110800000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 115, "YES": 677} | 0 | 4.6746751832405895 | True | play | YES | public | 1645558593723 | Matthew Barnett | I intend to soon publish a critique of one part of Ajeya Cotra's draft report on AI timelines, which can be found here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines
**Content of the post**
My critique will focus on the fact that she assumes that hardware progress in the future will re... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 151.47246029676023, "YES": 800.1009923990715} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645917395056 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1645558593723 | 0 | 15 | 1715658406414 | 0 | 1645911503584 | 0.9653993126572837 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.963070906332129 | MbWFhJ52yK2Z0zXO5Gf9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.963070906332129 | will-the-majority-of-pallies-partic | 396 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 345} | Will the majority of pallies participate in this market by March 1? | 1646121540000 | RvlSrOeFijfIJgYfQpSZVzTw61W2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 345} | 0 | 4.7338835936571435 | True | play | YES | public | 1645560739751 | lippy | This market resolves to "YES" if 3 or more pallies participate buy into this market during the month of Feb. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 76.09929040733559, "YES": 388.62023879425016} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646511807649 | 100 | lippy | 1645560739751 | 0 | 4 | 1715658025765 | 0 | 1 | 1646115520372 | 0.963070906332129 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9591778425239554 | u33yZz0np8MNn3feVl2J | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9591778425239554 | test-02882f3ceba7 | 111.8622277472958 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 53.13777225270419} | test | 1645562100000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 55} | 0 | 5.2317527591948645 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645561600954 | Predictor 🔥 | test
Close date updated to 2022-02-22 3:35 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 57.70707788956054} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645561985659 | 100 | Predictor | 1645561600954 | 0 | 1 | 1715658825363 | 0 | 0.9591778425239554 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.006149175898616676 | 1kw5oajkv3sxhrRFgR9C | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.006149175898616676 | will-shares-of-tesla-close-at-or-ab | 10629.355239989836 | {"NO": 3557.93715531226, "YES": 120.7076046979042} | Will shares of Tesla close at or above $850 on February 23rd, 2022? | 1645646400000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3576, "YES": 83} | 0 | 4.62861911070177 | True | play | NO | public | 1645562949117 | Athena | This market resolves to 'YES' if shares of Tesla stock ($TSLA, listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange) close at or above a price of $850 each at 4:00 PM ET on February 23rd, 2022 according to the Webull stock app.
Close date updated to 2022-02-23 3:00 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-23 2:00 pm
Close date updated to 20... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3667.317999134908, "YES": 288.46719200265096} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645650658973 | 100 | Athena | 1645562949117 | 0 | 13 | 1715656900941 | 0 | 1 | 1645633152989 | 0.006149175898616676 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7781102837196271 | 3JuFiwtjn97HPTQD6pp8 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7781102837196271 | will-sp500-get-into-the-correction | 289 | {"NO": 47.400000000000006, "YES": 201.6} | Will SP500 get into the correction territory until March 2022 (-10% off highs)? | 1646168400000 | D3k0mi76wPdh7kx3iwJxjyTco5C2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 47.400000000000006, "YES": 201.6} | 0 | 4.797775350089779 | True | play | YES | public | 1645564350233 | Robertas Strumila | This market resolves to yes if on March 1 price of SP500 will be lower than 4287 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 117.29234757817751, "YES": 219.64517568250847} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1645649465904 | 100 | RobertasStrumila | 1645564350233 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjnawp3zTKrIv6o3ye4-t5nQVqUKTQOGjGVk1j2xiY=s96-c | 7 | 1715656942698 | 0 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529563928}] | ["economics-default"] | 1645642573932 | 0.7781102837196271 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19561735599735353 | U5rW8rhQ0Ubz4WgkHRhk | {"NO": 766.3341884957825, "YES": 2109.1458028969296} | 0.08118647249458827 | will-andrew-yang-run-for-president | 4782.025043774506 | {"NO": 125.61259786020915, "YES": 99.61212488198908} | Will Andrew Yang run for President in 2024? | 1730851200000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 137.5, "YES": 100.5} | 0 | 9.890476547242294 | False | basic | public | 1645567467785 | Athena | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to 'YES' if Andrew Yang runs for President in the 2024 general US Presidential election or in the primaries of any party.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "EDIT: A write-in candidacy wou... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 183.8212945834448, "YES": 130.13976272612442} | {"creatorFee": 1.623055564720998, "platformFee": 0.03126373622264436, "liquidityFee": 0.18758241733586617} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1000 | Athena | 1711829347670 | 0 | 2 | 51 | 1650314608775 | 0 | 33 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "🌍 World... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "world-default", "2024-3d9da60b52f8", "geopolitics", "2024-us-election", "united-states"] | 1711829344230 | 1648041120050 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26255458579661084 | pXUTriOJT55KDz6lclZN | {"NO": 63.755003867020704, "YES": 395.7555701377388} | 0.05424451585757932 | will-we-beeminder-deem-it-prudent-t | 2581.4229141158066 | {"NO": 1148.9844062073535, "YES": 729} | Will we (Beeminder) deem it prudent to make it harder to turn No-Excuses Mode back off after you opt in to it? | 1652307396778 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1158, "YES": 729} | 0 | 3.8983626629050274 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645568557913 | Daniel Reeves | So far we've just made it show in the interface and in the legit check / derailment notification emails how long you've had No-Excuses Mode turned on or when you last turned it off. Presumably that adds a bit of disincentivizing shame to the loophole of quickly turning it back off when you're about to derail. This is a... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1609.9008788382362, "YES": 966.9789792149936} | {"creatorFee": 1.8522921144154534, "platformFee": 0.34085809747328755, "liquidityFee": 1.4665791735669098} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1652307396778 | 101.4665791735669 | dreev | 1652295693255 | 0 | 18 | 1650314766040 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Beeminder", "slug": "beeminder", "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "groupId": "TBLLIYRPP9YImVXqKhri", "createdTime": 1664383000381}] | ["beeminder"] | 1651676510360 | 1652295691096 | 0.05424451585757932 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9859234337051549 | 8wNL8iahbCh7FSpDg4lz | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9859234337051549 | will-at-least-10-users-invest-in-th | 1731.673596363311 | {"NO": 30.87589758415305, "YES": 1679.450506052536} | Will at least 10 users invest in this market by the end of the month | 1646110800000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 30, "YES": 1680} | 0 | 4.64392721585717 | True | play | YES | public | 1645568739789 | Athena | This market resolves to 'YES' if 10 or more users have traded in this market AND commented by the end of February 2022 Eastern Time. Users MUST comment to be counted. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 142.1279611474863, "YES": 1704.411766648739} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1645670752661 | 100 | Athena | 1645568739789 | 0 | 18 | 1715657658427 | 0 | 1645670634408 | 0.9859234337051549 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ZmIiPUl8difcWE6N9CCQ | which-book-is-the-most-like-harry-p | 1298.779299813115 | Which book is the most like Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality? | 1646175540000 | iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.703093827681551 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645568959286 | Mr Stone | I will use the resolution option PROB for this question.
Feb 22, 11:29pm: Use your own interpretation for what the word 'like' means in the sentence. It could be the writing style, the subject, the fanbase, ...
Feb 25, 12:18am: Well, I don't think 60% of the reward should go to a joke. Get your money out while you st... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1646203420086 | 1039.9999999999998 | stone | 1645568959286 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "71f0175ef579", "prob": 0.0005727090984085877, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0010053723752386264, "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.754462417524205, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ZmIiPUl8difcWE6N9CCQ", "createdTime": 1645568959486, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week... | 1 | [{"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1659014622604}] | ["recommendations"] | 1645843807548 | {"13b4796c1dae": 17.948126671782106, "16a0f5550f8e": 2.2243170114246777, "176f4ab59fc2": 0.7944774369252735, "40a5edd92a30": 67.8936516828219, "492fb2c3476a": 6.617394946392962, "6346650cb27c": 3.3198394494625942, "df6109347df2": 0.6239148726684605, "e51f112438fd": 0.5782779285220208} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nvuXwijtWuXfOAbEHV36 | what-number-am-i-thinking-of | 16 | What number am I thinking of? | 1656647940000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.224558429275356 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645570519867 | Charles Vorbach | Don't bet on this, you'll lose M$. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1691606840343 | 300 | CharlesVorbach | 1645570519867 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a94daced13fe", "prob": 0.6942444444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 55.25104016589547, "userId": "yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 24.33337798542159, "textFts": "", "contractId": "nvuXwijtWuXfOAbEHV36", "createdTime": 1645570520025, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | 5 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7441023607097166 | PfIb8hulLg6fxTPz7Ai4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7441023607097166 | meh | 83.81647683840902 | {"NO": 25.129284763502156, "YES": 41.05423839808883} | Meh | 1646200740000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 26, "YES": 42} | 0 | 5.17462153717649 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645573468367 | Patrick Delaney | Just meh. Comment whatever you're feeling and we'll figure out something by consensus.
Feb 23, 7:19am: Currently we have a consensus at N/A with an, "I feel ya," and a, "hell no," as well as an ask to resolve at N/A. Should I resolve this market now? Ehh, I dunno.
Feb 24, 10:27am: We've got a meh, a N/A, a hell yes c... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 33.48031874439215, "YES": 57.091675075277614} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646227580660 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645573468367 | 0 | 10 | 1715658120313 | 0 | 1 | 1646182750750 | 0.7441023607097166 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09259423867215369 | 5Yqd2nJbr58CW2ZpXg2F | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.09259423867215369 | will-1-test-positive-for-covid-by-2 | 92 | {"NO": 75, "YES": 15} | Will [1] test positive for Covid by 2/27/2022? | 1646207940000 | UC4813YJL9am8VoQE1BO8BTZQo53 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 75, "YES": 15} | 0 | 8.249734339450752 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645573674342 | Raj Thimmiah | [1] is hashed to fabcad3f11442896070a804f5a6fa6c929d6f60bf17aba0c218f75dfb94c8bee
Feb 22, 3:47pm: [1] had contact with someone on Saturday who tested positive for Covid on Tuesday but negative Saturday. They have had 2 shots + booster. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 85.73301581479564, "YES": 27.38667559781581} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1697240590293 | 100 | raj | 1697240636500 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giz1IaNINtDyr-o_uJ8uDu_aw4N5PoZpto97YE7szI=s96-c | 4 | 1650313801396 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779618980}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1697240635842 | 0.09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08938218316517436 | eCItjOsIjASyr2v3jxir | {"NO": 96.72775104058037, "YES": 190.782278403982} | 0 | will-keltham-and-merrin-explicitly | 645.90960434167 | {"NO": 142.93141665127885, "YES": 20.500000000000014} | Will Keltham and Merrin explicitly have a Friendship or Romance subplot by e.o. June 2022? | 1655301540000 | Y9bXf0FFTNbX70zcDR5FxVvuxOu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 143.5, "YES": 20.5} | 0 | 8.405336385534595 | True | play | NO | public | 1645577250369 | openendings | Resolves YES if, by end of 30 June 2022 PST, a dath ilani Keltham and dath ilani Merrin, played by larwain and swimmer963 ("Authors") respectively, interact directly in the same Glowfic Constellation thread in a manner that includes or plausibly sets up Romance/Friendship Tropes.
Positive examples include:
- Earth ro... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 155.92983618386577, "YES": 48.94937180546856} | {"creatorFee": 1.3894170028801647, "platformFee": 0.23156950048002745, "liquidityFee": 1.3894170028801647} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1661742301153 | 101.38941700288018 | openendings | 1656570711069 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhoNzKYE7KlQxoalIP9fY8bmdUt6928aExKL7UI=s96-c | 20 | 1650314688290 | 0 | 1 | 21 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "userId": "tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1662037841466}] | ["glowfic"] | 1655285122862 | 1656570706671 | 0.047406249944098505 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
WoLNu6QvBbV2p9CXMOga | who-will-win-washington-dcs-ward-1 | 37 | Who will win Washington, DC's Ward 1 Democratic primary election in 2022? | 1655870340000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.462418377228464 | True | play | 78e9dd21819c | public | 1645579365818 | David Glidden | Context: https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/12/02/sabel-harris-runs-ward-1-dc/ | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.44000000000000017, "platformFee": 0.11000000000000004, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1655894657474 | 260 | dglid | 1645579365818 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "edcc52a1c022", "prob": 0.07304601899196493, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.5542488349532486, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 45.10341771555674, "textFts": "", "contractId": "WoLNu6QvBbV2p9CXMOga", "createdTime": 1645579366236, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529490781}] | ["politics-default"] | {"78e9dd21819c": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.019101602194027498 | TUPpN3AGVmCaLyBsw6Gv | {"NO": 100.43900326177075, "YES": 79.8562583938795} | 0 | will-the-international-congress-of | 1010.0859048626676 | {"NO": 393.05783674345287, "YES": 35} | Will the International Congress of Mathematicians 2022 be held in St. Petersburg? | 1658116474050 | 0tNRj1oWkFZseNi7CTRKC8biWFT2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 401, "YES": 35} | 0 | 9.830420027049858 | True | play | NO | public | 1645583734676 | Chan Bae | This market resolves to 'Yes' if the ICM is held within the year at St. Petersburg. It resolves to 'No' if the ICM is held somewhere else, cancelled, or delayed past the end of 2022.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 423.95081992350003, "YES": 59.161389438974474} | {"creatorFee": 0.10406809681404866, "platformFee": 0.026017024203512165, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1658116474050 | 100 | ChanBae | 1658110208348 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghfy1G7G5GLx2lohswuOz-mC_1EomRs9Q63-zKVZA=s96-c | 14 | 1650314605126 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529488139}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529528710}] | ["politics-default", "science-default"] | 1657041411955 | 1658110214458 | 0.023907286084758516 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry | what-book-should-i-read-630b68d6de33 | 822.8690393126732 | What book should I read? | 1647061140000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.692006850078496 | True | play | cf37a762f7ce | public | 1645584246296 | Charles Vorbach | I'll choose the answer whose recommendation I choose to read. It might be fiction or nonfiction (though I don't read a lot of nonfiction).
I'm a big fan of weird, intricate, and humorous works which are not precious with their protagonists.
I've read and enjoyed the following,
- Anything by J.R.R Tolkien
- Anythi... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647132228366 | 1179.9999999999998 | CharlesVorbach | 1645584246297 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 1 | 22 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "eaf48bdb1c6c", "prob": 0.23030347564365752, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.003239429364664, "userId": "yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 26.747601420939585, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry", "createdTime": 1645584246469, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | [{"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1659014622604}, {"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1659016346893}] | ["recommendations", "books"] | 1647050165999 | {"cf37a762f7ce": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9794838173463356 | AMvoqcetGn3ZH6JNbvQ3 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9794838173463356 | will-this-market-have-m20000-invest | 62195.20108080479 | {"NO": 890.913109256982, "YES": 20759.88580993823} | Will this market have M$20,000 invested by March 11th? | 1647061140000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 852, "YES": 21004} | 0 | 4.617427184600796 | True | play | YES | public | 1645584746792 | Charles Vorbach | Judged by the size of pool, will this market have a total of M$ 20,000 invested in it by 11:59 pm EST on March 11th?
The market will stay open until March 11th. #meta #shortterm #fun
Feb 23, 10:28am: This market will not resolve until it closes. I'll resolve based on the pool size at close since that is simplest to d... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3101.146085851821, "YES": 21427.553058975944} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647132185826 | 100 | CharlesVorbach | 1645584746792 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 65 | 1715657703298 | 0 | 1 | 1647047144534 | 0.9794838173463356 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.34771881808421684 | mOiczhf0vuy65qjBGSS0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.34771881808421684 | will-lee-jaemyung-win-the-2022-kore | 558.8919645919755 | {"NO": 226.1080354080246, "YES": 145} | Will Lee Jae-Myung win the 2022 Korean Presidential Election? | 1646778540000 | 0tNRj1oWkFZseNi7CTRKC8biWFT2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 225, "YES": 145} | 0 | 4.741356623551862 | True | play | NO | public | 1645585855075 | Chan Bae | This market resolves to 'Yes' if Lee Jae-Myung wins the 2022 Korean Presidential Election. In all other scenarios, this market resolves to 'No'.
Close date updated to 2022-03-08 2:29 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 299.72222848749965, "YES": 218.8344166532346} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937} | 0 | 1646852866254 | 100 | ChanBae | 1645585855075 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghfy1G7G5GLx2lohswuOz-mC_1EomRs9Q63-zKVZA=s96-c | 5 | 1715658643212 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529504032}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.34771881808421684 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21489980703216674 | uiBiW4GYLEcf1LHLOLnP | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.21489980703216674 | will-the-sp-500-close-updown-1-on-f | 9781.248130629463 | {"NO": 3223.8584988431367, "YES": 2370.8933705274003} | Will the S&P 500 close up/down 1%+ on February 24th, 2022? | 1645732800000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3188.5, "YES": 2396.5} | 0 | 4.624016972381702 | True | play | YES | public | 1645587200327 | Athena | This market resolves to ‘YES’ if the S&P 500 has increased or decreased by 1% or more from February 23rd’s closing price at 4 PM EST on February 24th. I will check the price using the Webull stock app.
Close date updated to 2022-02-24 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-24 9:30 am
Close date updated to 2022-02-24... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 4957.2800008197155, "YES": 2593.5756520299783} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645736441788 | 100 | Athena | 1645587200327 | 0 | 23 | 1715658835876 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529577020}] | ["economics-default"] | 1645684391108 | 0.21489980703216674 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5867693470049301 | bQConVUN5TpveIRMsogM | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5867693470049301 | test-market-do-not-bet | 11 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 6} | Test market, do not bet! | 1646197140000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 6} | 0 | 6.2917399635737015 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645588605892 | Jenny | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 8.42686184175343} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645590611216 | 100 | Jenny | 1645588605892 | 0 | 2 | 1715658394545 | 0 | 0.5867693470049301 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7937669457680355 | nGki83mjEcO7C2kLZpFq | {"NO": 83.30217459501566, "YES": 108.0791288034147} | 0.7478906885420146 | conditional-on-winning-the-primary | 633.7927241683918 | {"NO": 89, "YES": 341.85705697922896} | Conditional on winning the primary, will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th District (in 2022)? | 1652993476369 | BM7WDql3V0fOWBtlc2s4ITzUPZ32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 89, "YES": 351} | 0 | 4.1698521551238965 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645588771007 | Eli Tyre | This guy: https://www.carrickflynnfororegon.com/
See also, these markets:
* https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-carrick-flynn-win-the-general
* https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-carrick-flynn-win-the-democrat | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 192.5773310773619, "YES": 385.4252674890901} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1652993476369 | 101.3349370681024 | EliTyre | 1652464351281 | 0 | 7 | 1650314752165 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529504332}] | ["politics-default"] | 1652464349889 | 0.7478906885420146 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.017640122698118915 | aU4aRrGGs2tlflO2aZ5N | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.017640122698118915 | will-i-work-for-at-least-8-hours-on | 320 | {"NO": 109, "YES": 11} | Will I work for at least 8 hours on February 23, 2022? | 1645678740000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 109, "YES": 11} | 0 | 4.962203626998808 | True | play | NO | public | 1645589153940 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if I log at least 8 hours of my time labeled "work" on February 23, 2022 Eastern Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 118.93787454171189, "YES": 15.938067652635937} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645666327787 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1645589153940 | 0 | 7 | 1715658372515 | 0 | 1645595997498 | 0.017640122698118915 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5057984398500525 | cA5GJjQ0CY2LMxYwSQGu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5057984398500525 | will-russia-force-ukraine-to-surren | 638.1934634341383 | {"NO": 293.80653656586173, "YES": 318} | Will Russia force Ukraine to surrender? | 1648796340000 | qaeetXEaU4ZVPG2kZvUNz1BwQBq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 295, "YES": 318} | 0 | 4.693615854626581 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645590027555 | Bob | This market resolves to YES if Russia launches a full invasion and forces the official Ukrainian government to sue for peace or to surrender. Resolves to NO if Russia does not invade, Ukraine never surrenders, or only occupies rebel-held areas. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 430.09746081357895, "YES": 435.11450906686616} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645719123222 | 100 | thadthechad | 1645590027555 | 0 | 11 | 1715658418850 | 0 | 0.5057984398500525 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6003588430307902 | har9NJtFljgpELXSX9wV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-jessica-cisneros-win-the-texas | 472.08375569542216 | {"NO": 117, "YES": 184.9162443045779} | Will Jessica Cisneros win the Texas 28th democratic congressional primary? | 1646121540000 | qaeetXEaU4ZVPG2kZvUNz1BwQBq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 117, "YES": 170} | 0 | 2.8889787106006786 | True | play | NO | public | 1645590732265 | Bob | YES if AP calls it for her NO if AP calls it for Cuellar
Mar 1, 9:07pm: I did not think about a runoff. I'm not sure whether to wait or to resolve N/A | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 190.8635611574884, "YES": 233.9340151212557} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1667027337218 | 100 | thadthechad | 1653241549335 | 0 | 5 | 1650314716114 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529500225}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779601491}] | ["politics-default", "please-resolve"] | 1653241546160 | 0.6003588430307902 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IQBbrCOZVsnjvPrH4uYw | how-long-will-it-take-my-rescue-dog | 257.6108828512358 | How long will it take my rescue dog to learn her name? | 1646899140000 | HWNSFycEwNceiPbmlXM9CXckiyw2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.966171634822418 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645591863276 | Jasmine | Background info: My rescue dog will be arriving from China on March 10th. She is allegedly a three-year-old Samoyed. I do not know what her original name was, but the names listed for her on the information I received from the rescue are Bella and Molly. I will be naming her Yoyo, and I will begin using her name as soo... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664410619419 | 479.99999999999994 | Jasmine | 1645591863276 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhRN2VCDfRHPPKBnWE9hAHLDWdbZj8P2cm1pg4b=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0029c13d22f6", "prob": 0.0285388472794722, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.47517413694089355, "userId": "HWNSFycEwNceiPbmlXM9CXckiyw2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 16.174907496968796, "textFts": "", "contractId": "IQBbrCOZVsnjvPrH4uYw", "createdTime": 1645591863455, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 1 | 6 | 1645606258326 | {"bb1dce27bff2": 49.8579135127129, "ea9e4a8f9719": 50.1420864872871} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4 | xN5iRiP7yP2UliuZt6G1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4 | will-what-day-will-russia-invade-uk | 3418.0362058435894 | {"NO": 1463.5671656907305, "YES": 120.39662846568024} | Will "What day will Russia invade Ukraine?" resolve to single answer? | 1646024340000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1516, "YES": 110} | 0 | 4.646189243574272 | True | play | NO | public | 1645594418511 | Jenny | Resolves YES if https://manifold.markets/Duncan/what-day-will-russia-invade-ukraine resolves to a single answer before Mar 7, 23:59 EST (a week after market closes).
Resolves NO if Duncan's market resolves to PROB or N/A, or if it is still unresolved on Mar 7, 23:59 EST. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1575.6512377293411, "YES": 162.0729655709306} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1645759049201 | 100 | Jenny | 1645594418511 | 0 | 11 | 1715658913976 | 0 | 1645743071492 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
doyD4xTIdgylSBxZgDdw | what-will-be-the-name-of-taylor-swi | 303.9460265981468 | What will be the name of Taylor Swift's next re-recorded album? | 1672559940000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.789441012134475 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645595949670 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Taylor Swift has announced her plan to re-record her old albums; she released Fearless (Taylor's Version) in April 2021 and Red (Taylor's Version) in November. However, it is unclear which album she will re-record next. If she does not release anot... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {} | 0 | 1672605015070 | 480.00000000000006 | Conflux | 1651820356047 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a849adb40eca", "prob": 0.14561915339701687, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.412549409163466, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 37.62389263551905, "textFts": "", "contractId": "doyD4xTIdgylSBxZgDdw", "createdTime": 1645595949929, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | 5 | 1651820354253 | 1645599524310 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8297519196777545 | ij9V5SPdArPr5yBdFBVb | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-i-get-a-full-time-job-making-6 | 245.34509262946852 | {"NO": 51.31091088154102, "YES": 123.34399648899046} | Will I get a full time job making > $67,000 a year before July 1st 2022? | 1652203842078 | PyDK3kP7OJWFSJaBNSWz4Pgl3j92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 48, "YES": 125} | 0 | 4.90676175518248 | True | play | YES | public | 1645597418626 | Oliver S | I am a senior at a mid-tier state school.
I am majoring in economics with a 3.84 GPA (minor in math and data analytics.)
I have internship experience.
I have applied to 30+ jobs and have 1 interview lined up.
If you have more questions feel free to ask.
Mar 7, 8:05pm: Had 2 interviews and have a 3rd on Friday. One... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 72.06500002657182, "YES": 159.0953228432372} | {"creatorFee": 0.03908729501976836, "platformFee": 0.00977182375494209, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000670820393249937, "YES": 0.0007416198487095664} | 0 | 1652203842078 | 100 | OliverS | 1645597418626 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz259bXYKpL7chGSbkct7j1QcYUrVSTQz77nx3N=s96-c | 10 | 1650314724185 | 0 | 1647899580581 | 0.8297519196777546 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1319288533951751 | s2LO2qPfRHxH0EeBFIMo | {"NO": 73.53797935037863, "YES": 1090.044521367125} | 0 | will-keltham-be-outside-the-forbidd | 1667.4449983013872 | {"NO": 281.1267472085958, "YES": 109.20841322066187} | Will Keltham be outside the Forbiddance by the end of the current thread? | 1651284963968 | HRqyoYfqd2cJEaBltoVsWInlcRs2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 285, "YES": 104} | 0 | 6.609123104055449 | True | play | NO | public | 1645600889650 | Leonardo Taglialegne | Will Keltham be stably outside the Forbiddance he's currently in at the time https://glowfic.com/posts/5694 in marked as complete?
If he's outside it but just temporarily (e.g.: to use a Summon Monster or similar) this resolves as NO.
I will resolve the market as soon as I know the answer.
If the project relocates a... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 363.32962691021277, "YES": 142.66709623434832} | {"creatorFee": 2.5767526699799985, "platformFee": 0.44098999865674215, "liquidityFee": 2.43837802605909} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1651284963968 | 102.43837802605908 | miniBill | 1645600889650 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjXiay-2U1xC10HDePvL6F8ac2ROVBwZm8KskQtwg=s96-c | 16 | 1650314782616 | 0 | 1651215972631 | 1647640098641 | 0.010148965217146356 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.008197288738294528 | 8YkDryn5mcfEcSd2iZ1e | {"NO": 236.23368088509196, "YES": 1218.786853936861} | 0 | will-at-least-3-million-americans-d | 7677.190340135672 | {"NO": 888.9725107392063, "YES": 16.170446022001272} | Will at least 3 million Americans die from nuclear war in 2022? | 1672549140000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 884, "YES": 15} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1645602833112 | Scrooge McDuck | In the event of needing a body count, I'll refer to whichever estimates are available. If none are available I'll try to make a reasonable guess. For semi-attributable and delayed-attributable (e.g. some people starving due to infrastructure loss) I'll try to make inclusions if it seems obvious those deaths would not... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 899.0001791698401, "YES": 105.28181378533581} | {"creatorFee": 0.11461717996816384, "platformFee": 7.200078127652887e-05, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1672549539942 | 240 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1671513564068 | 0 | 46 | 1650313820377 | 0 | 1 | 44 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125150}, {"name": "Paradox", "slug": "paradox", "userId": "CrQD7VbNqgbU6cjenSs1H5fdgEa2", "groupId": "AMLRqN9z8l5MxIVaTzBK", "createdTime": 1669045652609}] | ["nuclear-risk", "paradox"] | 1671513563963 | 1646282051111 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05984867050291397 | oM1Ui75GiP0ExfEHLZkh | {"NO": 221.06409499398575, "YES": 202.28136814093708} | 0.06504442049326987 | if-russia-annexes-ukraine-before-20 | 285.3252172024483 | {"NO": 49.36450058605937, "YES": 10} | If Russia annexes Ukraine before 2024, will Ukraine's 2030 real GDP be over 180bn USD (in 2020 US dollars)? | 1704085140000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 10} | 3.078191837246648e-16 | 3.8008838273995584 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645606012192 | Scrooge McDuck | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update 2024-Jan-06:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I don't think Ukraine counts as \"annexed\". I therefore resolve this market as NA, and we look to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the o... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 57.65624562294545, "YES": 14.142842730512138} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1704566608145 | 220 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1704566608582 | 1.1 | 1 | 10 | 1650314757795 | 0 | 2 | 8 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529575421}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227282}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-20... | ["economics-default", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.09690920777145606 | 1688273803621 | 1704566444805 | False | 0.07 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3357933149869436 | t8iuTnbtuLmH8fJdBz7P | {"NO": 919.577815608266, "YES": 1129.1336551507532} | 0.29164897934926737 | if-russia-does-not-annex-ukraine-be | 1865.5973677558432 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 10} | If Russia does NOT annex Ukraine before 2024, will Ukraine's 2030 real GDP be over 180bn USD (in 2020 US dollars)? | 1956545940000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 10} | 0 | 9.61995874417545 | False | basic | public | 1645606070119 | Scrooge McDuck | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update 2024-Jan-06:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I don't think Ukraine counts as \"annexed\", so I resolved ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the other market", "type": "text", "marks": [... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"NO": 20.6162557342501, "YES": 14.142842730512138} | {"creatorFee": 0.14439393232937514, "platformFee": 0.14439393232937514, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1000 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1715034667456 | 1.1 | 23 | 1650314787715 | 0 | 2 | 10 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529576722}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227305}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-20... | ["economics-default", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.09552647215710855 | 1715034663393 | 1704568635217 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.32053010954916233 | eqaarZTnSZAwSSlZi3ZO | {"NO": 124.90788787952177, "YES": 944.8586375495317} | 0 | will-scott-alexander-review-vaclav | 3651.319154584643 | {"NO": 339.8680908646993, "YES": 103.40609581105912} | Will Scott Alexander review Vaclav Havel's "The Power Of The Powerless"? | 1677571200000 | OVEYlvXPDVefqYKo3dsfuUARUnt2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 88, "YES": 120} | 1.9828767216959269 | True | play | NO | public | 1645615297278 | Michael Hendricks | This market resolves to Yes if https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-vaclav-havels-the-power does not resolve to N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 175.94270788000912, "YES": 406.862451777352} | {"creatorFee": 0.3031345255702782, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1677678959873 | 300 | mndrix | 1677512782811 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjaCgK2UWNpiYp8tpMsnOkVk30bgGGzC_ovr_08_oU=s96-c | 27 | 1650314693672 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1677512782646 | 1646640795624 | 0.06 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6112506086316549 | lynZPPtVvk3ubzJ9ea9X | {"NO": 12.42895126810187, "YES": 376.64376698326896} | 0 | will-scott-alexander-review-one-of | 412.61591522146387 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 65} | Will Scott Alexander review one of Rene Girard's books on mimetic desire? | 1677571200000 | OVEYlvXPDVefqYKo3dsfuUARUnt2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 65} | 4.208640103298544 | True | play | NO | public | 1645615475981 | Michael Hendricks | This market resolves Yes if https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-one-of-rene-girards-boo does not resolve N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 72.32635757799503, "YES": 90.69250244921022} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1677679176468 | 100 | mndrix | 1677164359033 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjaCgK2UWNpiYp8tpMsnOkVk30bgGGzC_ovr_08_oU=s96-c | 5 | 1650314742958 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1677164358903 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | HC5fyuyaqeeOaGnwNL6k | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5000000000000001 | will-scott-alexander-review-mark-br | 100 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | Will Scott Alexander review Mark Brinell's "The Search For The Perfect Health System"? | 1646290740000 | OVEYlvXPDVefqYKo3dsfuUARUnt2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645615557081 | Michael Hendricks | This market resolves Yes if https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-mark-brinells-the-searc does not resolve N/A.
Feb 23, 4:26am: I botched the resolution date. Closing. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 70.71138522543595} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645615608309 | 100 | mndrix | 1645615557081 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjaCgK2UWNpiYp8tpMsnOkVk30bgGGzC_ovr_08_oU=s96-c | 1 | 1715657876465 | 0 | 0.5000000000000001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3482431078419845 | wgPEg0i98jIGgd9JPEES | {"NO": 55.238023032278484, "YES": 498.50483876957503} | 0 | will-scott-alexander-review-mark-br-d9c9727e3c8c | 636.5609890304934 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 55} | Will Scott Alexander review Mark Brinell's "The Search For The Perfect Health System"? | 1677571200000 | OVEYlvXPDVefqYKo3dsfuUARUnt2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 55} | 3.2477084876680697 | True | play | NO | public | 1645615706197 | Michael Hendricks | This market resolves Yes if https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-mark-brinells-the-searc does not resolve N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 72.11866610316638, "YES": 77.68597042259304} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1677678991091 | 140 | mndrix | 1677512763418 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjaCgK2UWNpiYp8tpMsnOkVk30bgGGzC_ovr_08_oU=s96-c | 8 | 1650314812018 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1677512762217 | 0.06 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.28444121065128997 | uOtOEINmLlBAaeiakUPt | {"NO": 58.17399909615605, "YES": 390.7178158878289} | 0 | will-scott-alexander-review-joseph | 408.69743534316433 | {"NO": 85, "YES": 51} | Will Scott Alexander review Joseph Stiglitz's "Whither Socialism"? | 1677571200000 | OVEYlvXPDVefqYKo3dsfuUARUnt2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 85, "YES": 51} | 3.8350386370775693 | True | play | NO | public | 1645615808342 | Michael Hendricks | This market resolves Yes if https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-joseph-stiglitzs-whithe does not resolve N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 115.0442088959718, "YES": 72.53345435383594} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1677679018602 | 100 | mndrix | 1677512740768 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjaCgK2UWNpiYp8tpMsnOkVk30bgGGzC_ovr_08_oU=s96-c | 6 | 1650314794660 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1677512740516 | 0.06 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5279934500282731 | mgKiNQnezY0tV12SwZ4g | {"NO": 21.30872360771177, "YES": 398.3315755572862} | 0 | will-scott-alexander-review-edward | 474.7944652960497 | {"NO": 52, "YES": 55} | Will Scott Alexander review Edward Teach's "Penelope's Dream Of Twenty Geese"? | 1677571200000 | OVEYlvXPDVefqYKo3dsfuUARUnt2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 52, "YES": 55} | 3.7685515053017618 | True | play | NO | public | 1645615926692 | Michael Hendricks | This market resolves Yes if https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-edward-teachs-penelopes does not resolve N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 73.51261116638422, "YES": 77.75030546885331} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1677679212100 | 100 | mndrix | 1677164342797 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjaCgK2UWNpiYp8tpMsnOkVk30bgGGzC_ovr_08_oU=s96-c | 6 | 1650314748752 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1677164342666 | 0.06 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | eVlOTAfGAjjaGw6GZac7 | {"NO": 25.042189252131294, "YES": 399.3261092038472} | 0 | will-scott-alexander-review-rick-pe | 472.77405625652733 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | Will Scott Alexander review Rick Perlstein's "Nixonland"? | 1677571200000 | OVEYlvXPDVefqYKo3dsfuUARUnt2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 3.663140460306975 | True | play | NO | public | 1645616072117 | Michael Hendricks | This market resolves Yes if https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-rick-perlsteins-nixonla does not resolve N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 70.71138522543595} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1677679240668 | 100 | mndrix | 1677164333468 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjaCgK2UWNpiYp8tpMsnOkVk30bgGGzC_ovr_08_oU=s96-c | 5 | 1650314691172 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1677164332266 | 0.06 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5924184453986285 | tKgpjLLDT1J4dLRRQV3W | {"NO": 839.5687006952007, "YES": 25.11478719257692} | 1 | will-scott-alexander-review-bruce-f | 980.6276741458491 | {"NO": 56.67647684544144, "YES": 54.695849008709374} | Will Scott Alexander review Bruce Fink's "A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis"? | 1651163878940 | OVEYlvXPDVefqYKo3dsfuUARUnt2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 61} | 0 | 4.129717839470934 | True | play | YES | public | 1645616189411 | Michael Hendricks | This market resolves Yes if https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-bruce-finks-a-clinical does not resolve N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 72.2710315444577, "YES": 84.74028387558573} | {"creatorFee": 2.587795828794445, "platformFee": 0.4312993047990742, "liquidityFee": 2.587795828794445} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1651163878940 | 102.58779582879446 | mndrix | 1645616189411 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjaCgK2UWNpiYp8tpMsnOkVk30bgGGzC_ovr_08_oU=s96-c | 11 | 1650314789371 | 0 | 1651129824145 | 0.979834366037907 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7274032817999654 | rIQrEP6TbCk9cI2Djbg1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7274032817999654 | will-gme-open-march-1st-at-or-above | 1411.387419178884 | {"NO": 228.93640417790772, "YES": 399.67617664320807} | Will GME open March 1st at or above $120 | 1646114340000 | MAAD1J6G9lXzi01YGIiKAvh8KAN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 230, "YES": 405} | 0 | 4.691597092983636 | True | play | YES | public | 1645617425516 | Dustin | Resolves to YES if on the morning of March 1, 2022 GME stock opens at or above $120 / share. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 328.20415208623655, "YES": 536.1315776431192} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646145091227 | 100 | Dustin | 1645617425516 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhOa--qvfxnXT1JfaOu1QgWzLbV_gIUyiQ7sh4hoQ=s96-c | 14 | 1715658766535 | 0 | 1 | 1645642135983 | 0.7274032817999654 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9847803122867592 | kCG93rCm2LkgMQbtPVJV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9847803122867592 | will-i-be-alive-to-press-the-yes-bu | 6399.621135434069 | {"NO": 284.6076551397964, "YES": 4741.771209426134} | Will I be alive to press the "YES" button tomorrow? | 1645732800000 | VfvvoZdf0nZ6zM63ogTgeuPWSSo1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 281, "YES": 4801} | 0 | 4.625017903457569 | True | play | YES | public | 1645634347569 | Johnny | This market resolves to "YES" at noon tomorrow, unless I am permanently indisposed by then and thus unable to press the button. I have no reason to think I won't be alive tomorrow. I have made no arrangements for the resolution of this market in the event of my death. This market is ~~a naked grab for 4% of the total p... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 620.0949259395891, "YES": 4987.983242327285} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645732984848 | 100 | TheSkeward | 1645634347569 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj4aU69N8prXAd7lwmlS3dHW-lp_SfATAlIRGkJtg=s96-c | 27 | 1715658589553 | 0 | 1645667227559 | 0.9847803122867592 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu | what-will-be-the-next-country-to-jo | 37804.4629906717 | What will be the next country to join NATO? | 1680615109119 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.6166677844479995 | True | basic | 4145263249e7 | public | 1645635192783 | Bolton Bailey | If no new country joins NATO before February 23, 2032, this market resolves to N/A.
May 20, 9:19pm: Update: I posted a reply to the "Simultaneously" market expressing skepticism, but looking back, I don't think I was clear. To throw a bone to the (person) who bet it all on "Simultaneously" apparently without reading t... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.7845106098036374, "platformFee": 0.9461276524509094, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1680615109119 | 2300 | BoltonBailey | 1680609144245 | 0 | 61 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2a6f0769fc3e", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.222533356668612e-05, "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.6221911103332944, "textFts": "", "contractId": "rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu", "createdTime": 1645635192998, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month":... | 54 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529421829}, {"name": "NATO", "slug": "nato", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Pakn0bNotFIXDGJ4007n", "createdTime": 1664057590776}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId"... | ["world-default", "nato", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1680609144123 | 1653139670262 | False | {"4145263249e7": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.846053760450046 | vv0ecZlhzAKrLFlKfkEG | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.846053760450046 | will-i-go-to-bed-by-1215am-tonight | 137 | {"NO": 19, "YES": 108} | Will I go to bed by 12:15am tonight? | 1645680600000 | nUekmymfGaSbIQK89LsGt8DZQoy2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 19, "YES": 108} | 0 | 4.945972551838699 | True | play | YES | public | 1645636904917 | miriam | Resolves to YES if I have put all electronic devices away, lights out, and am trying to sleep by 12:15am tonight.
Last night I stayed up till 2 and want to incentivized myself not to do that. 12:15 will be a challenge, but I'm pretty good at doing things given the sort of social accountability that this market provide... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 49.830091312378705, "YES": 116.8170193114} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1645714319986 | 100 | miriam | 1645636904917 | 0 | 11 | 1715658859780 | 0 | 1 | 1645658632458 | 0.846053760450046 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.36720707386508056 | 9ICmvEqMnF0jfdwRkdLn | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.36720707386508056 | will-i-wake-up-before-715-am-tomorr | 150.53643880484952 | {"NO": 69.46356119515048, "YES": 76} | Will I wake up before 7:15 am tomorrow? | 1645715700000 | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 70, "YES": 76} | 0 | 4.90969048879061 | True | play | YES | public | 1645637755642 | Daniel Filan | My alarm is at 8 pm at the moment. The last two nights I've woken up before 7 am, looked at the clock, and then went back to sleep - which is a bit unusual, but the weather here has been colder than it typically is. Resolves yes if tomorrow morning I remember waking up before 7:15 am.
Feb 23, 9:36am: Gah I meant 8 am.... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 115.71456019255912, "YES": 88.14805229351526} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1645723832177 | 100 | DanielFilan | 1645637755642 | 0 | 6 | 1715657667659 | 0 | 1 | 1645691852909 | 0.36720707386508056 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25 | cfyyJxRjb4RKrENt9N4a | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.25 | this-market-resolves-to-25-or-75-wh | 11863.251514880178 | {"NO": 1102.607234278752, "YES": 1406.1412508410729} | This market resolves to 25%, or 75%, whichever is closest to the final probability | 1646024340000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1580, "YES": 1288} | 0 | 4.634850863956078 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645639687457 | Jenny | This market resolves PROB depending on the implied probability when the market closes:
From 0% to 49%, resolves PROB 25%.
From 50% to 100%, resolves PROB 75%. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1936.2417500728086, "YES": 1595.2403782389576} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646156107904 | 100 | Jenny | 1645639687457 | 0 | 24 | 1715658445351 | 0 | 1 | 1646024346830 | 0.25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7649827527475547 | 9mdpKZ6K0iQPmhksCiv2 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7649827527475547 | will-this-market-probability-be-at | 63.26999729542889 | {"NO": 14.933374984517748, "YES": 25.796627720053372} | Will this market probability be at least 50% after the first day when the market pool doesn't double? | 1645765140000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 26} | 0 | 5.409324831886362 | True | play | YES | public | 1645640310702 | Jenny | This market closes every day at midnight EST.
If the market pool has at least doubled since the previous midnight, I reopen the market and extend it by another day.
If the market pool hasn't doubled, I resolve the market to YES if the implied probability is at least 50% and NO if it's at most 49%.
Close date updated t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 19.74581069628296, "YES": 35.62467601629995} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645798450103 | 100 | Jenny | 1645640310702 | 0 | 6 | 1715657682440 | 0 | 1 | 1645660028425 | 0.7649827527475547 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29999999999999993 | IuNIUUeeVJZTyChgOhbD | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.29999999999999993 | will-paperwork-become-underemployed | 10 | {"NO": 7, "YES": 3} | Will Paperwork become underemployed within a year? | 1677801540000 | SwS1HrRs1DRdcPo58aU2OiHPdxv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 7, "YES": 3} | 0 | 6.366309919943205 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645640997108 | UWU | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8.36743692536729, "YES": 5.477773297609166} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1645641422074 | 100 | Uwu | 1645640997108 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwFFIwDOtCgUt1Xvz4quyNvE7mLOWY8xDRkdOr_=s96-c | 1 | 1715657922210 | 0 | 0.29999999999999993 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.038233058327266575 | r4H9RtKCL3kLTeJZHqtx | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.038233058327266575 | will-manifoldmarkets-add-a-way-to-s | 670.1819543967298 | {"NO": 541.4228030644069, "YES": 42.39524253886334} | Will ManifoldMarkets add a way to search for markets from the home page in February? | 1646110740000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 544, "YES": 40} | 0 | 4.697225426586848 | True | play | NO | public | 1645641526109 | Jenny | Currently if you want to search for a specific market you first have to click on "Markets" and then use the search bar. Will MM add a way to search for markets directly from the home page, before the end of the month?
If, for some reason, this search function is only available to logged in users, I'll count it as parti... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 576.8405816519111, "YES": 89.9978964676292} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646156009606 | 100 | Jenny | 1645641526109 | 0 | 12 | 1715658759212 | 0 | 1 | 0.038233058327266575 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9731516146817444 | XcybhRF8HbHTXt3fsM8y | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9731516146817444 | will-my-portfolio-increase-to-at-le | 1160.572991144341 | {"NO": 84.78917283396657, "YES": 756.6378360216925} | Will my portfolio increase to at least M$2000 by the end of March? | 1646254950913 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 85, "YES": 770} | 0 | 4.6728114281877655 | True | play | YES | public | 1645642030596 | Athena | This market resolves to "YES" if my portfolio reaches a value of M$2000 or more at any time on or after March 1st, 2022 prior to April 1st, 2022. I will be creating markets, but I will not be purchasing any M$. My portfolio's current total value is M$1071.
Feb 24, 5:35pm: Portfolio has shot up to the 1450s.
March 2nd... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 137.87199200631312, "YES": 830.0556655472029} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1646254950913 | 100 | Athena | 1645642030596 | 0 | 15 | 1715658301002 | 0 | 1646198607994 | 0.9731516146817444 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.008619720593711275 | lzaEroqohVXpvV3xhWL6 | {"NO": 158.2627735204132, "YES": 448.5039453759896} | 0 | will-at-least-67000-people-in-the-u | 1360.488878886777 | {"NO": 294, "YES": 4} | Will at least 67,000 people in the U.K. die from nuclear war in 2022? | 1672549140000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 294, "YES": 4} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1645644558139 | Scrooge McDuck | In the event of needing a body count, I'll refer to whichever estimates are available. If none are available I'll try to make a reasonable guess. For semi-attributable and delayed-attributable (e.g. some people starving due to infrastructure loss) I'll try to make inclusions if it seems obvious those deaths would not h... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 296.11752396801853, "YES": 33.4515769441442} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1672549576393 | 160 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1671168465340 | 0 | 28 | 1650314743346 | 0 | 1 | 26 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125150}, {"name": "Paradox", "slug": "paradox", "userId": "CrQD7VbNqgbU6cjenSs1H5fdgEa2", "groupId": "AMLRqN9z8l5MxIVaTzBK", "createdTime": 1669045708930}] | ["nuclear-risk", "paradox"] | 1671168465180 | 1648082705789 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9051742048484919 | iCubAAZrbhRioMBIKeUC | {"NO": 311.7957218679937, "YES": 106.64025486648386} | 1 | will-the-next-uwcs-president-serve | 2777.3257558745577 | {"NO": 508, "YES": 1127} | Will the next UWCS president serve the entirety of their term? | 1679097540000 | SwS1HrRs1DRdcPo58aU2OiHPdxv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 508, "YES": 1127} | 0 | 6.3201571669264105 | True | play | YES | public | 1645645686277 | UWU | This market resolves affirmatively if whoever is elected UWCS president for the 2022/2023 period is removed from that position for a non-temporarily.
Close date updated to 2023-03-17 11:59 pm
Feb 24, 2:47pm: corrective the market resolves negatively if the above happens, otherwise it resolves positively if it closes. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 534.000014981554, "YES": 1545.3388799873962} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1679099122571 | 120 | Uwu | 1679080732089 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwFFIwDOtCgUt1Xvz4quyNvE7mLOWY8xDRkdOr_=s96-c | 12 | 1650314721466 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1679080731944 | 0.97 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4549310902836632 | IMAskU1DfcGNWLqRTkzs | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4549310902836632 | will-tesla-stock-close-at-or-above | 350 | {"NO": 105.99999999999997, "YES": 96} | Will Tesla stock close at or above $750 on February 24th, 2022? | 1645732800000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 106, "YES": 96} | 0 | 4.835790901138866 | True | play | YES | public | 1645647103826 | Athena | This market resolves to 'YES' if shares of Tesla stock ($TSLA, listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange) close at or above a price of $750 USD per share at 4:00 PM ET on February 24th, 2022. I will be checking the price using Google Finance.
Feb 24, 4:00pm: $800.77 close. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 149.1348785510955, "YES": 136.24680546915587} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000670820393249937, "YES": 0.0007416198487095664} | 0 | 1645736479144 | 100 | Athena | 1645647103826 | 0 | 8 | 1715657904241 | 0 | 1 | 0.4549310902836632 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5394452967235376 | pNrtvglxwni9hE2AFDR7 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5394452967235376 | will-leo-somehow-leave-his-new-job | 1493 | {"NO": 688, "YES": 805} | Will Leo somehow leave his new job, or become otherwise underemployed? | 1649704580646 | SwS1HrRs1DRdcPo58aU2OiHPdxv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 688, "YES": 805} | 0 | 4.648050701437393 | True | play | YES | public | 1645648145976 | UWU | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1013.2128976678594, "YES": 1096.5635458105016} | {"creatorFee": 27.519999999999985, "platformFee": 6.879999999999996, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1649704580646 | 100 | Uwu | 1645648145976 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwFFIwDOtCgUt1Xvz4quyNvE7mLOWY8xDRkdOr_=s96-c | 8 | 1715658710919 | 0 | 0.5394452967235376 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.027785244842764092 | d2OW1WyF2njDRz03rZaG | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.027785244842764092 | will-russia-annex-donetsk-and-luhan | 1518.043731301681 | {"NO": 1239.3881632388968, "YES": 148.56810545942216} | Will Russia annex Donetsk and Luhansk by March 30th? | 1648767737256 | nwkoY4jyJ7XGLxcifXevClNIf542 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1244, "YES": 135} | 0 | 4.650498462814369 | True | play | NO | public | 1645652143393 | Nathaniel Lovin | This market resolves YES if Russia makes Donetsk and Luhansk (or either one) federal Subject(s), signs a Treaty on Accession with Donetsk People's Republic/Luhansk People's Republic (even not fully admitted to the Federation), or similar formal plans to annex either or both oblasts are pursed.
Will resolve early only ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1368.5390673580773, "YES": 231.35730126188423} | {"creatorFee": 5.758250747932756, "platformFee": 1.439562686983189, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1648767737256 | 100 | NathanielLovin | 1645652143393 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw672dayHddBuJS6RyIdoRQHTgsrMCf0Cg6vMmP=s96-c | 19 | 1715658457279 | 0 | 0.027785244842764092 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14987073072000048 | 5x5TdBIk1pS54xxpOc3S | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.14987073072000048 | will-the-discord-have-300-members-b | 422.564978934941 | {"NO": 248, "YES": 119.435021065059} | Will the Discord have 300+ members by Friday morning? | 1645765200000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 248, "YES": 108} | 0 | 4.742539810745433 | True | play | NO | public | 1645658278283 | Athena | This market resolves to 'YES' if the official Manifold Markets Discord server (linked on the website) has 300 or more members when I check the member count via the mobile app on Friday, February 25th 2022 at 9:30am EST.
Close date updated to 2022-02-25 12:00 am | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 338.7850316728953, "YES": 142.24602592170288} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1645812451122 | 100 | Athena | 1645658278283 | 0 | 16 | 1715657002719 | 0 | 1 | 1645670989154 | 0.14987073072000048 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.39827722632859797 | MwLtMj0JYFbiIDBrsQxk | {"NO": 25.015679746039773, "YES": 989.1987057910223} | 0 | will-starship-reach-reach-orbit-by | 1479.5990873352057 | {"NO": 129.83941093238172, "YES": 117.63920891996102} | Will Starship reach reach orbit by May 31st? | 1654034340000 | 0trb3mwgiWc2gsPn7AqeHiEzXuU2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 130.1, "YES": 114.9} | 0 | 4.199784141571633 | True | play | NO | public | 1645658475382 | Donald | This market resolves "YES" if SpaceX's Starship successfully reaches orbit before May 31st 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 188.4043748717145, "YES": 160.4679213159395} | {"creatorFee": 4.26662868920854, "platformFee": 0.7111047815347562, "liquidityFee": 4.26662868920854} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1654070153379 | 104.26662868920855 | Donald | 1654001848712 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz8FznDUav6nMo39bAo1a4bgdeFlljmg5Cjb4Tc=s96-c | 18 | 1650314554204 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529447070}] | ["technology-default"] | 1654001847395 | 1651267030125 | 0.01646298204278728 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.040539502025601984 | Icf19vkG9f7A5nfrlqo9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.040539502025601984 | will-ethereum-be-at-or-above-3000-b | 695.061641890261 | {"NO": 368.60144946489146, "YES": 64.33690864484765} | Will Ethereum be at or above $3000 by March 1st? | 1646067600000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 369, "YES": 41} | 0 | 4.724294503722882 | True | play | YES | public | 1645658592439 | Athena | This market resolves to 'YES' if the value of the cryptocurrency Ethereum ($ETH) is equal to or greater than $3000 USD at 12:00 am EST on March 1st according to coinmarketcap.com.
Close date updated to 2022-02-28 12:00 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 424.07299598490584, "YES": 87.16984499733262} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1646196891829 | 100 | Athena | 1645658592439 | 0 | 14 | 1715657915043 | 0 | 1 | 1646058804347 | 0.040539502025601984 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17257476567559354 | mrBOw1mFn3j9QHj5pFjn | {"NO": 107.93596884870496, "YES": 1778.3044722558923} | 0 | will-apple-announce-an-arvr-headset | 1877.4705188143575 | {"NO": 80.72970684108402, "YES": 84.9} | Will Apple announce an AR/VR headset by the end of 2022 | 1672527540000 | 0trb3mwgiWc2gsPn7AqeHiEzXuU2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 87.1, "YES": 84.9} | 0 | 3.8655861008869 | True | play | NO | public | 1645659053596 | Donald | Mar 6, 10:24am: This market will resolve YES if apple anounces a VR or AR headset before the end of 2022
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 129.84642272765112, "YES": 102.82722185058411} | {"creatorFee": 6.357132317377395, "platformFee": 0.055461016646952674, "liquidityFee": 0.332766099881716} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1672564543022 | 200.33276609988172 | Donald | 1672348585413 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz8FznDUav6nMo39bAo1a4bgdeFlljmg5Cjb4Tc=s96-c | 27 | 1650314750085 | 0 | 1 | 27 | [{"name": "Apple", "slug": "apple", "userId": "T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1664067897057}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529453538}, {"name": "Virtual Reality", "slug": "virtual-reality", "u... | ["technology-default", "apple", "virtual-reality"] | 1672348585270 | 1666556616227 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zDijZSLLJgqZ85TW7QY8 | who-will-win-the-predictit-degenera | 79 | Who will win the PredictIt Degenerates poker game on Wednesday, February 23rd? | 1645711620000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.112958945080439 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645660812290 | David Glidden | PredictIt trader Gaeten Dugas (@GaetenD on Twitter) hosts a weekly poker night for PredictIt traders (and associated circles). Who will win tonight?
Confirmation of game tonight: https://twitter.com/diese_schwartz/status/1496527768934584320
Close date updated to 2022-02-24 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-24 9... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645748296008 | 380 | dglid | 1645660812290 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f5b2c30f2d08", "prob": 0.42155626581211, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 43.195352081726696, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 59.27104584622894, "textFts": "", "contractId": "zDijZSLLJgqZ85TW7QY8", "createdTime": 1645660812444, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m... | 1 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0921363349393652 | zybH1j61CF37ztQGWiBX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.0921363349393652 | acx-predictions-will-be-the-largest | 4254.273646297943 | {"NO": 935.5412835109328, "YES": 222.18507019112283} | ACX Predictions will be the largest community on March 1 or this market will have pool under $1000 | 1646110740000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 994, "YES": 135} | 0 | 4.657384112396193 | True | play | NO | public | 1645661799468 | Jenny | If this market has pool smaller than $1000 when it closes, this question automatically resolves YES.
Otherwise, this market resolves YES or NO, depending on whether ACX Predictions has strictly more followers than any other community.
I will try to resolve this market consistently with @SneakySly's resolution. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1103.1043875335733, "YES": 351.41618590233554} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1646156151308 | 100 | Jenny | 1645661799468 | 0 | 17 | 1715658984696 | 0 | 1 | 0.0921363349393652 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4309983008904651 | w0yVHDzaWIHILWB7hJ6a | {"NO": 31.957429005028587, "YES": 2427.8169825793902} | 0 | finland-joins-nato-in-2022 | 9396.868502927702 | {"NO": 467.8861303718585, "YES": 476.0048339699575} | Finland joins NATO in 2022 | 1672559940000 | QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 469, "YES": 457} | 0 | 3.0934326540858024 | True | play | NO | public | 1645661958846 | Gustavo Lacerda |
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 570.2837498500764, "YES": 752.1359484866997} | {"creatorFee": 51.38718505503763, "platformFee": 4.034836124669979, "liquidityFee": 24.209016748019863} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1673454888600 | 220.0126131439156 | GustavoLacerda | 1672759460474 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjR_r0ypbWKIiccnCVk1TbkoS3GQr2VxwiXOnRrzps=s96-c | 113 | 1650314804223 | 0 | 3 | 103 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1664055510922}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529422683}, {"name": "NATO", "slug": "nato", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe... | ["world-default", "politics-default", "nato"] | 1672542804035 | 1672759455720 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7916659722274306 | YZ8zGhAG9lFwO6cZlkry | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7916659722274306 | will-i-weigh-75-kg-or-less-at-some | 322 | {"NO": 16.98718090197802, "YES": 103.01281909802196} | Will I weigh 75 kg or less at some point before 01 Sep 2022? | 1646628309867 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 30, "YES": 90} | 0 | 4.962203626998808 | True | play | YES | public | 1645662872810 | Undox | I currently weigh 83kg having come down from 92kg about 2 months ago. I am 175cm tall, male.
NO arguments: If I get to 75kg it will be the lightest I have been in over 20 years. Losing the last weight near ideal BMI is harder as metabolism slows down. No weight training or cardio. Only walking about 1km-2km per day av... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 54.772803473074106, "YES": 106.77162544749424} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1646628309867 | 100 | Undox | 1645662872810 | 0 | 2 | 1715658325927 | 0 | 1645664809751 | 0.7916659722274306 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9287036743516971 | TH444hmpBehBoHc6IAH8 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9287036743516971 | will-the-nasdaq-composite-index-be | 52 | {"NO": 7, "YES": 31} | Will the Nasdaq Composite Index be above 13,000 at close on February 25th? | 1645812000000 | xvewCXFLLuZ0b97GY0DHmD8BsSt2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 7, "YES": 31} | 0 | 5.447450153243938 | True | play | YES | public | 1645664966244 | Basil Covington |
Close date updated to 2022-02-25 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-25 12:00 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 11.747936010210474, "YES": 36.13947980394848} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645826999266 | 100 | BasilCovington | 1645664966244 | 0 | 6 | 1715658202164 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529570639}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.9287036743516971 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.010462313941458683 | 5E0ulvZC2tjp4nqBP1YX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.010462313941458683 | will-this-market-be-the-largest-of | 1337.2571081991491 | {"NO": 874.7605099984855, "YES": 39.67783884930823} | Will this market be the largest of all markets tagged whale bait at the end of the day on March 31st, 2022? | 1648789140000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 874, "YES": 26} | 0 | 4.668327987603815 | True | play | NO | public | 1645669629825 | Patrick Delaney | Will this whale bait bet broadly best the will of the wishful, would-be whale bait wankers? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 909.643195373457, "YES": 93.53384324373764} | {"creatorFee": 1.7174780202282989, "platformFee": 0.4293695050570747, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648868890362 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645669629825 | 0 | 17 | 1715656991237 | 0 | 1 | 1648237109448 | 0.010462313941458683 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1250124996875 | axbMRFi9Q5JEjzVwy7DD | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1250124996875 | will-i-work-for-at-least-8-hours-on-7d5c3cee10b2 | 20 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 5} | Will I work for at least 8 hours on February 24, 2022? | 1645765140000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 5} | 0 | 5.850273745513611 | True | play | NO | public | 1645671659059 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if I log at least 8 hours of my time labeled "work" on February 24, 2022 Eastern Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
See this previous question: https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-i-work-for-at-least-8-hours-on | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 18.70908871377759, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645752280971 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1645671659059 | 0 | 3 | 1715658381956 | 0 | 1645749592686 | 0.1250124996875 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9963717735368236 | w4A4DfCF4W1jdoTDeSnp | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9963717735368236 | will-this-market-have-at-least-m314 | 55026.41617570709 | {"NO": 1626.0190680955595, "YES": 38171.56475619736} | Will this market have at least M$31,415 invested into it by Pi Day (March 14th)? | 1646531981211 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1510.2, "YES": 38585.8} | 0 | 4.616376070166397 | True | play | YES | public | 1645673223843 | Athena | This market will resolve to YES if $31,415 or more is invested into this market by 3:14 am EST on March 14th, 2022 - also known as 'Pi Day'.
Feb 24, 5:55pm: Forgot to specify - the market will resolve YES if the pool size reaches $31,415 at any point before/at 3:14am on March 14th. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2285.402303442471, "YES": 39731.91027572435} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1646531981211 | 100 | Athena | 1645673223843 | 0 | 53 | 1715658864210 | 0 | 1646476384675 | 0.9963717735368236 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06286876941124767 | IhgQHfP0PzPHd09FKmZ9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.05 | how-many-dau-will-manifold-markets | 439.24703675107526 | {"NO": 291.7529632489248, "YES": 61} | How many DAU will Manifold Markets have in the week ending Apr 1? | 1648882740000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 298, "YES": 61} | 0 | 8.734726558587777 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645674279294 | Austin | This market resolves to the 7-day average of DAU from Mar 26 to Apr 1; each 100 DAU = 1%.
The source of truth will be http://manifold.markets/analytics . Note that this DAU (and the final count) includes visitors who do not have accounts.
Today, we're averaging around 500 = 5%; our somewhat ambitious target is a 10x ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 341.4853740969882, "YES": 88.44827791236985} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1650878456708 | 100 | Austin | 1645674279294 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 11 | 1650313890392 | 0 | 1 | 1650878433974 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7898111250434741 | p7e8L3gSNr2F538WXWtr | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7898111250434741 | will-the-sp-500-close-down-3-or-mor | 513 | {"NO": 142, "YES": 291} | Will the S&P 500 close down 3% or more today from yesterday's close? | 1645714800000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 142, "YES": 291} | 0 | 4.724279796961786 | True | play | NO | public | 1645674366358 | SG | Resolves YES if the S&P 500 Index closes down 3% or more on Feb 24, 2022 compared to the previous day's closing price (4,225.50). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 198.51519841185964, "YES": 384.81369778179675} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645739889057 | 100 | SG | 1645674366358 | 0 | 7 | 1715658698687 | 0 | 1 | 1645676353822 | 0.7898111250434741 |
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