p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.9880874266190505 | ll27rkuZDV1Io8kkOrtL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9880874266190505 | will-john-beshir-still-hold-the-top | 511.7490796722482 | {"NO": 15.5, "YES": 344.7509203277518} | Will John Beshir still hold the Top Trader leaderboard position on February 28th at 23:59:59 UTC time. | 1646092740000 | KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15.5, "YES": 346.5} | 0 | 4.744919428128122 | True | play | YES | public | 1645486754364 | nic | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 39.31960071198588, "YES": 358.099727868764} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888} | 0 | 1646092776681 | 100 | nic_kup | 1645486754364 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi1nJQXNQ3PA-wqCPsU9jqSly3kAwGkSulM3lRmYw=s96-c | 8 | 1715658626291 | 0 | 0.9880874266190505 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7845367270222653 | kQ7l7Nd3dI3PIUUhdAS9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7845367270222653 | does-she-like-me | 4708.3406736382585 | {"NO": 285.45574288191915, "YES": 798.2035834798227} | Does she like me? | 1646136000000 | fdlTRaJ43Db6A3DRWOFnNOf2CGu1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 302, "YES": 819} | 0 | 4.660207298796124 | True | play | NO | public | 1645488637807 | Sam | These are the facts I know about our relationship:
0. So I woke up 42 minutes late and resulted in us missing the train with people from the university club to the convention and she wasn’t angry at all.
1. She pretty much stayed with me at all times at convention, even when she met her other friends.
1.1 She gave up the opportunity to spend more time with a friend she hadn’t spoken to in 2 years to hang with me.
2. When I asked her if she wanted to (a) leave at 18:00 to leave with the rest of the club, or (b) leave later and maybe see some mutual acquaintance she said b would be better.
3. She instinctively referred to us as “we” on the group chat without clarifying (I had to).
4. When we were in the train with this other club member, he offered to switch places with me so I could talk to her.
5. She decided to order at the “fancy” pizza place I went to even though it was a bit “pricey” and her other friend went to a burrito place which I assume was cheaper.
6. When the mutual acquaintance (who had a place to stay in the convention city) was there and we were leaving, I suggested he drop us off at the train station, and she said he shouldn’t, ostensibly because he’s tired.
7. She was upset I didn’t attend a club showing because of some homework.
8. She specifically texted me when I came late to a club showing.
9. She accepted my dinner invitation (as friends) at short notice, and then we stayed there for three hours.
9.1 When I said we should leave because the place is closing, she didn’t believe me initially and wouldn’t’ve wanted to go if it weren’t closing.
10. We were up till 04:30 (arriving at my place at 22:15) playing Lover’s Spacetime and we only stopped because I said I wanted to.
On average, we have spent 10 hours a week seeing each other in person, and another 10 hours a week texting.
Feb 22, 12:20am: to be clear, this is about romantic liking. This will resolve when either
0. I ask her out and then her response is yes or no;
1. the deadline passes, leading to N/A; or
2. she starts dating someone else, in which case it is no.
I’m aware there’s a small possibility she could like me, but still says no. Unless I otherwise am informed, the question will resolve to no if she says no.
Feb 22, 1:41am: Good comment from @Jd about negative signals.
In terms of negative signals: we're both nerds, and in particular the evidence shows that she doesn't have many other quality friends (she complains about her "friends" not really talking and staring at their phones), so maybe she wants to spend more time with me since I actually talk to her.
Another negative signal is that she almost never initiates, it is almost always me, although whenever I initiate, if it's online she responds instantly most of the time, and for anything in person she's never said no before, and it's always been me ending the hang out sessions.
We've known each other for more than a year now, but only now really started to hang out (because covid), and before she didn't seem all too interested back then.
"Le monde moderne, ce sont des idées à la mode qui passeront comme toutes les modes"
Feb 22, 13:12: Another possibly negative signal. The club organised a trip to some attraction, but she didn't manage to make the cut-off for reservations. While there we were texting and we had the following exchange (the final response was delayed by several minutes):
"how is it?
— Alright, kinda miss you.
— there there, i'm sure you'll be fine without me"
My message was sent somewhat tactically to see how she feels about me, and her dismissive response could be seen as a "friend-zone". But it's also possible she meant it jokingly, or didn't want to respond too strongly as she doesn't know that I like her. Note that we tend to make a lot of jokes, and tend to tease each other frequently.
Feb 23, 1:09pm: Also I encourage anyone to ask questions to better ascertain my chances.
Feb 23, 8:41pm: @Lorenzo In actuality I did ask her, and I do know the answer. But the thing is when I developed the crush, I had recently read about subjective probability, and decided to ask them to tell me what probability they think based on the information I provide and see how it updates overtime, with the messages you’re reading.
Recently I found out about Manifold and decided to post the messages from out chatlog and conversations here to see what people think. I encourage everyone to play honestly, because then it’s more interesting. I’m making sure I don’t ever say anything I know from after I asked her to make sure it’s fair. I also get 50:50 so it’s fair (but mostly because I didn’t realise what it was asking as it was my first time).
In terms of why I didn’t ask immediately, well I’m an awkward nerd, I needed to work up the courage, to plan how to, and the best moment was 14 days after I developed feelings for her in the real timeline. I also don’t think you should ask out female friends without knowing there’s at least a small possibility (>= 10 %) they might like you, because otherwise due to the unfortunately gendered nature of dating, it means they have a lot of male friends just falling for them “out of the blue” which is unfortunate.
Whoops, “decided to ask them” should read “ decided to ask my friends”.
Feb 25, 12:17pm: (the story will still be in present tense, since the secret is out, I'll post an update every few days so the market has enough time to react but often enough so it's still interesting)
So I dragged my friends to the club we go to, to see her. When we were walking to the club, I'd mentioned she'd see my friends, and things were a bit awkward. Honestly, things stayed kinda awkward for most of the night, but got better once it was just us again. I also standing/being closer to her tonight, at the start of the night she would move away, or it seemed like she placed a coat to prevent it, but as it went on she stopped moving away.
My friends had said based on the information, before they assigned a probability of 30 % that she liked me, but now they assigned 50 %.
After my friends were gone, we were talking about the latest club activity which mentioned mental health, and she began talking about one of her friend's mental health problems for like 20 minutes before apologising for basically doxxing them, and saying "I don't know why I told you all that". It also turns out she shares one of my incredibly niche interests in something which is incredibly inane for most people which is nice.
Feb 27, 1:14am: I forgot to reply to @Jonathan’s comment, I spent like 20 minutes writing the message, trying very hard to not give it away. You can keep looking for a deeper meaning, but I don’t think most people could discover anything above chance, and I’d urge you to ignore it because it contains post-request information.
Feb 27, 2:57pm:
So she left to go back home for the weekend, but she forgot her half-fare card in her room, and she needed it to travel back. I offered to go to her place and mail it back to her. She initially refused because she didn't want to burden me and because her room was a "complete and utter mess".
For the room comment, I pointed out that I'd probably see it messy anyways, which she agreed with, which implies she can see me coming to her place (so far she's only been to my place), and that I don't judge.
In terms of burdening me, she relented because her mum said (direct quote) "psychological surveys say doing favours build closer friendships". Initially I was a bit off-put by this, because it seemed like a bit of a friend-zone, but actually I think this is a good sign if her mum is positive about us being close friends, but I don't really know how much she knows about me.
For actually getting the half-fare card, she gave me a list of instructions written the way I would (pretty precise and really minute, like enter, turn left, turn right, walk straight etc) and in fact gave me a map of the house to show where her room was.
She was really thankful I mailed it to her. I noticed an interesting thing, she sent me the photo of the railcard late at night while we were talking, and I said "I hope you didn’t get up to take the picture 😝, id prefer if you’d slept lol", and she mentioned she'd taken the photo yesterday, but "forgot" to send it.
This is interesting regarding initiation, since she clearly puts effort into making the conversation, but still doesn't initiate very often.
Feb 28, 11:42am: I asked our mutual friend what he thought:
0. they have spent 16 h in-person with her.
1. They thought we were already “a thing” when they met us.
2. In their discussion with her, they identified what she likes in a guy:
2.1 “Extroverted but shares some of her interests. Someone who isn’t introverted [a]nd doesn’t spend all the time watching TV or is very awkward”
3. She told them that she “wasn’t really interested in relationships”
3.1, They interpret this to mean not that she would reject everyone, but that she isn’t actively seeking anyone, especially because she has some idea of what she’d like in a guy and the fact she wants children.
4. They approve my plan to ask her out.
5. They say p is between 50–60 %
5.1 They think the likely outcome is that she will ask me for some time to think about it before saying yes.
6. Regarding initiation, she doesn’t like to initiate, but she likes to talk to people.
7. She isn’t the romantic type, so probably wouldn’t be too into hand-holding, hugging etc.
So 6 confirms what I was thinking, 2.1 is somewhat concerning since I’m not extroverted, but I assume she meant not someone who has low social skills.
I’ll be asking her tomorrow, so get your bets in.
Close date updated to 2022-03-01 12:00 pm
Mar 1, 11:57am: So she said no, but she did say when I asked she was only 80 % sure she would say no; ie even she thought it was 20 %. Concerning my %, when the crush started, I thought it was 25 % she liked me, and it later went to 33 % when I asked. Although an interesting trend was people who knew me well would give low %s, like 30 % and later 50 %, whereas people who didn’t would give really high %s like 60-70 % at the start, which seems to be replicated in today’s market (although I did think the market was correcting around feb 23).
I don’t think 79 % is really a realistic %, as the baseline for “do they like me?” I think would be like 0,1 % by Fermi estimation (assume 100 friends/acquaintances and people are attracted to someone 10 % of the time), maybe 1 % if people are always attracted to someone. IMO the market really should’ve been at 40 % max. But thanks for believing in me 😊 , and for taking part in this experiment. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 503.01368442183855, "YES": 959.8421412997053} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646136409878 | 100 | Cyril | 1645488637807 | 0 | 35 | 1715658598145 | 0 | 1646134724852 | 0.7845367270222653 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9761822621022005 | yvlsFUqzfYmqgL5mARn7 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9761822621022005 | will-russia-enter-kiev-by-march-31s | 14448.552860065409 | {"NO": 1295.8897728618063, "YES": 10185.557367072784} | Will Russia enter Kiev by March 31st, 2022? | 1648785540000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 976, "YES": 10323} | 0 | 4.619465724455134 | True | play | YES | public | 1645490414382 | Charles Vorbach | This question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Kiev, Ukraine before March 31st, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, "entering Kiev" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kiev for any length of time against the consent of the Ukrainian government. A repelled attack on the city still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.
Feb 23, 11:09pm: I'll wait to confirm, but supposedly airborne troops have landed in Kyiv. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1771.9314821792957, "YES": 11343.893080088044} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888} | 0 | 1645843506194 | 100 | CharlesVorbach | 1645490414382 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 59 | 1715658963991 | 0 | 1645816669705 | 0.9761822621022005 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9778894728063985 | g3lH7sWKpS0jD8GdsIlD | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9778894728063985 | will-russia-enter-kiev-by-april-30t | 1255.5676148233645 | {"NO": 67.25345063541985, "YES": 433.17893454121577} | Will Russia enter Kiev by April 30th, 2022? | 1651377540000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 41, "YES": 435} | 0 | 4.710261292114267 | True | play | YES | public | 1645490540363 | Charles Vorbach | This question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Kiev, Ukraine before this date according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, "entering Kiev" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kiev for any length of time against the consent of the Ukrainian government. A repelled attack on the city still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.
Feb 23, 11:09pm: I'll wait to confirm, but supposedly airborne troops have landed in Kyiv. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 74.41248770194989, "YES": 494.87003816492467} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000264575131106459, "YES": 0.0009643650760992956} | 0 | 1645843499972 | 100 | CharlesVorbach | 1645490540363 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 11 | 1715658512495 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529498664}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226925}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | False | 0.9778894728063985 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9765457761127323 | XcMFxcNmrgnQsGk8w1qw | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9765457761127323 | will-russia-enter-kiev-by-september | 5417.0480953399965 | {"NO": 348.3518244946772, "YES": 2412.6000801653267} | Will Russia enter Kiev by September 30th, 2022? | 1664596740000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 311, "YES": 2521} | 0 | 4.633064958532088 | True | play | YES | public | 1645490618111 | Charles Vorbach | This question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Kiev, Ukraine before this date according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, "entering Kiev" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kiev for any length of time against the consent of the Ukrainian government. A repelled attack on the city still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.
Feb 23, 11:09pm: I'll wait to confirm, but supposedly airborne troops have landed in Kyiv. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 422.8336400871215, "YES": 2728.3827910616183} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964} | 0 | 1645843493447 | 100 | CharlesVorbach | 1645490618111 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 26 | 1715658299103 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529491670}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226784}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | False | 0.9765457761127323 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17081174691190784 | Xww5X7bgUn2yQFQ5LxYq | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.17081174691190784 | will-the-city-of-cambridge-massachu | 743.4579822416014 | {"NO": 602.5, "YES": 68.04201775839863} | Will the city of Cambridge, Massachusetts extend its mask mandate prior to March 1, 2022? | 1646110800000 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 602.5, "YES": 93.5} | 0 | 4.686986071526526 | True | play | YES | public | 1645492858610 | Peter Berggren | This market will resolve to "Yes" if, prior to 12:00 AM March 1, 2022 Eastern Standard Time, the city of Cambridge, Massachusetts releases a news announcement, on the website https://www.cambridgema.gov/covid19/News, including an amendment to its temporary emergency order requiring the wearing of masks in indoor public places which extends this order past February 27, 2022, 11:59 PM. This market will resolve to "No" if no such amendment is put into place, or if the mandate described at the following link https://www.cambridgema.gov/-/media/Files/citymanagersoffice/COVID19/coccovid19emergordmasks1522.pdf
is explicitly repealed before this date.
Feb 22, 7:00am: If a new mask mandate is put in place in lieu of removing the old one, the question will resolve NO, provided that the new mask mandate requires masks in fewer circumstances that the old mask mandate does (e.g. requiring masks only for unvaccinated people, only in healthcare settings and schools, etc.). If the website cannot be accessed at the resolution time, an attempt will be made to access the website 8 hours later, after which the question will resolve N/A.
Feb 24, 5:45pm: The mask mandate was extended by another two weeks, according to https://www.cambridgema.gov/covid19/News/2022/02/maskrequirementendsmarch13, and so the question will be resolved as YES. Since the new mandate does not seem to reduce the circumstances to which masks apply, resolving it as YES seems most accurate. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 610.5949598554266, "YES": 277.131257103363} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1645742888724 | 100 | PeterBerggren | 1645492858610 | 0 | 9 | 1715658309320 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492101}] | ["politics-default"] | 1645512862636 | 0.17081174691190784 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
KQKTLE7B3rKhvNucrKah | write-an-original-haiku-about-predi | 136.01831457465786 | Write an original haiku about prediction markets | 1645966740000 | gT23IPmlexZCfA3vKzQoqZPcsUo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.994178193305898 | True | play | fed861675ab5 | public | 1645493546443 | Simon Wisdom | Write a 3 line haiku in the form 5 syllables, 7 syllables, 5 syllables. I will pick my favorite. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645994445644 | 460.0000000000001 | SimonWisdom | 1645493546443 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaE2FJbjLwJkR82LddVO61YX3b4VNv-hvEdICgXg=s96-c | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "52e8353100c7", "prob": 0.21440741706982688, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.947849511616825, "userId": "gT23IPmlexZCfA3vKzQoqZPcsUo1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 43.77713274366459, "textFts": "", "contractId": "KQKTLE7B3rKhvNucrKah", "createdTime": 1645493546656, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:58.899", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645994445000, "totalLiquidity": 22.8701244874482, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6c5cafbe390d", "prob": 0.008662059649621006, "text": "An oracle's voice\nThose who heed it shall prosper\nThe wisdom of crowds", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.08636735407002163, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.88439682483984, "textFts": "'crowd':14 'heed':7 'oracl':2 'prosper':10 'shall':9 'voic':4 'wisdom':12", "contractId": "KQKTLE7B3rKhvNucrKah", "createdTime": 1645498731416, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:58.899", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645994445000, "totalLiquidity": 0.9239530292929073, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7038c69d1886", "prob": 0.49922470904570704, "text": "A frenzy of trades,\nThen silence -- the market waits\nFor resolution", "index": 2, "poolNo": 112.98227641050174, "userId": "eJz5Mol38CYKGtzfWuunjUhMFJG3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 113.33319708934366, "textFts": "'frenzi':2 'market':8 'resolut':11 'silenc':6 'trade':4 'wait':9", "contractId": "KQKTLE7B3rKhvNucrKah", "createdTime": 1645513975830, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:58.899", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645994445000, "totalLiquidity": 113.15760071702694, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9377b91e27bc", "prob": 0.024871260380099923, "text": "Incentives not right\nMy early shares deflated\nBy snipers in wait", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.5825686832703292, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.84079926701079, "textFts": "'deflat':7 'earli':5 'incent':1 'right':3 'share':6 'sniper':9 'wait':11", "contractId": "KQKTLE7B3rKhvNucrKah", "createdTime": 1645594833693, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:58.899", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645994445000, "totalLiquidity": 3.647784855747989, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "de02a47a9b54", "prob": 0.0591274260356266, "text": "Beliefs should pay rent!\nPut money where your mouth is!\n$&@*.... I am now broke", "index": 4, "poolNo": 2.1739496302204033, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 34.59324583184001, "textFts": "'belief':1 'broke':14 'money':6 'mouth':9 'pay':3 'put':5 'rent':4", "contractId": "KQKTLE7B3rKhvNucrKah", "createdTime": 1645595193248, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:58.899", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645994445000, "totalLiquidity": 8.672022485225236, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fed861675ab5", "prob": 0.19370712781911856, "text": "a digital pond\ngnats play over the water\ngulp! a fish eats half", "index": 5, "poolNo": 17.7230623181285, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 73.77105314198036, "textFts": "'digit':2 'eat':12 'fish':11 'gnat':4 'gulp':9 'half':13 'play':5 'pond':3 'water':8", "contractId": "KQKTLE7B3rKhvNucrKah", "createdTime": 1645899336196, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:58.898", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645994445000, "totalLiquidity": 36.158663859568804, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1645936187564 | {"fed861675ab5": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4150885482550662 | o7RqRURSrMNOmFXTyUUn | {"NO": 214.64631358382724, "YES": 36.51994988322937} | 1 | will-manifold-markets-receive-a-gra | 545.1250098868171 | {"NO": 278.5, "YES": 79.69627775962985} | Will Manifold Markets receive a grant from the Survival and Flourishing Fund's H1 2022 round? | 1663311540000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 278.5, "YES": 84.5} | 0 | 3.175766884201886 | True | play | YES | public | 1645497322895 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We're applying to https://survivalandflourishing.fund/sff-2022-h1-application ! Resolves YES if we win any amount of money from SFF. Reason's I'm low on this at the moment: - They seem to fund more established orgs (as based on the length of their application process) - We'd need to also get Rethink Charity's buy-in for their fiscal sponsorhip program, which I'd model individually as ~70% likely Close date updated to 2022-07-04 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-09-15 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 310.8903650134629, "YES": 177.91141260808791} | {"creatorFee": 1.5376347900314355, "platformFee": 0.2546466123682486, "liquidityFee": 1.5278796742094913} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1670624533502 | 121.5278796742095 | Austin | 1670624538913 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 14 | 1650314756789 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1663271703665 | 1670624536877 | 0.81 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18418572021160282 | Q2rdmcjj2z1b2szBjLCR | {"NO": 83.91390536272911, "YES": 1874.9940245104644} | 0 | will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-at-o | 2179.062913875232 | {"NO": 144.99999999999997, "YES": 146.44743374959302} | Will Nvidia stock end the year at or above $300/share? | 1671857940000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 145, "YES": 146} | 0 | 4.3239364512571905 | True | play | NO | public | 1645498653849 | Athena | This market resolves to 'YES' if shares of Nvidia stock ($NVDA, listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange) are trading with a price equal to or greater than $300 USD per share at 4:00 PM EST (the close of regular market trading hours) on December 30th 2022 (a Friday and the final day of trading for 2022.)
Close date updated to 2022-12-23 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 222.4755070910869, "YES": 188.27330740084912} | {"creatorFee": 2.8882965032495136, "platformFee": 0.19891080504503264, "liquidityFee": 1.1934648302701958} | {"NO": 0.0007, "YES": 0.000714142842854285} | 0 | 1672825728446 | 181.19346483027022 | Athena | 1671733592163 | 0 | 23 | 1650314577199 | 0 | 3 | 22 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529569775}] | ["economics-default"] | 1671733591966 | 1645517161648 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6TMw4uKxfX1N1vo1U4N9 | which-party-will-win-the-2022-ontar | 14 | Which party will win the 2022 Ontario general election? | 1654219800000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.224558429275356 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645499610033 | Athena | Whichever party is able to form government in the 43rd Parliament of Ontario following the election on - or before - June 2nd, 2022 will be chosen as the answer to this market. If a minority government is formed, then the governing party which has the greatest number of MPPs/seats at the time the 43rd Parliament commences will be chosen. If no government is formed, then the party which won a plurality of seats will be chosen.
Close date updated to 2022-06-02 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-06-02 9:30 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645634347087 | 280 | Athena | 1645499610033 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "222dc80aae06", "prob": 0.6943444444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 64.47473348939594, "userId": "IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.38225414155307, "textFts": "", "contractId": "6TMw4uKxfX1N1vo1U4N9", "createdTime": 1645499610236, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:33.117", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645634347000, "totalLiquidity": 42.77777777777778, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e0b0abe1308e", "prob": 0.14583333333333334, "text": "Progressive Conservative Party", "index": 1, "poolNo": 8.436104095109487, "userId": "IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 49.41146684278413, "textFts": "'conserv':2 'parti':3 'progress':1", "contractId": "6TMw4uKxfX1N1vo1U4N9", "createdTime": 1645499635383, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:33.116", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645634347000, "totalLiquidity": 20.416666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "888a34942e6c", "prob": 0.1597222222222222, "text": "New Democratic Party", "index": 2, "poolNo": 9.749101960269543, "userId": "IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 51.28875379098325, "textFts": "'democrat':2 'new':1 'parti':3", "contractId": "6TMw4uKxfX1N1vo1U4N9", "createdTime": 1645499687733, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:33.115", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645634347000, "totalLiquidity": 22.36111111111111, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6a4e4e04e9ca", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Liberal Party", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.00014000700052504376, "userId": "IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.3999299982499125, "textFts": "'liber':1 'parti':2", "contractId": "6TMw4uKxfX1N1vo1U4N9", "createdTime": 1645499703183, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:33.117", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645634347000, "totalLiquidity": 0.014, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | True | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529470937}] | ["politics-default"] | 1645634343275 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0842069821496701 | a7yyagHRaQ54rssy4FnE | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.0842069821496701 | will-the-dc-trucker-convoy-prevent | 178 | {"NO": 156, "YES": 22} | Will the DC trucker convoy prevent me from driving to Boston on Thursday, February 24th? | 1645808400000 | 7uH1XOw7dAcuF2AbQRBZVPl7JLJ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 156, "YES": 22} | 0 | 4.86206690008866 | True | play | NO | public | 1645503346094 | journcy | This market resolves to "YES" if on Friday morning it's true that some action by the announced Washington, DC trucker convoy sufficed to prevent me leaving town to drive to Boston. This market resolves "NO" if I make it to Boston, or don't make it for reasons unrelated to the convoy.
Feb 23, 1:16am: @tigrennatenn I'll be leaving from northern DC.
Close date updated to 2022-02-25 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-25 12:00 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 170.34175060976685, "YES": 51.653112202460754} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1645777512376 | 100 | journcy | 1645503346094 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgJcq-mmrfsY8Lc5zM24HwmO8aCHr_zfJXkX5FJtA=s96-c | 9 | 1715658358997 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529494300}] | ["politics-default"] | 1645563093032 | 0.0842069821496701 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0bQBfYJpDhI8AEUEyC7z | i-fucked-up-and-resolved-the-wrong | 164.7577778208483 | I fucked up and resolved the wrong market. What should I do? | 1645678740000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.996341169892743 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645508076065 | Jenny | I accidentally closed https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-the-implied-probability-of-thi-478efb9a7eed instead of https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-the-implied-probability-of-thi. What should I do?
Feel free to suggest your own answers | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645865272683 | 600 | Jenny | 1645508076065 | 0 | 12 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c7d7df4248e8", "prob": 0.03477990427706533, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.6413428666179556, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.798698299362826, "textFts": "", "contractId": "0bQBfYJpDhI8AEUEyC7z", "createdTime": 1645508076425, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.619", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645865272000, "totalLiquidity": 3.3786192726292033, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0ea805502541", "prob": 0.11043754735982483, "text": "Beg James to refund everyone and reopen the market", "index": 1, "poolNo": 6.893036100386701, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 55.522657340612895, "textFts": "'beg':1 'everyon':5 'jame':2 'market':9 'refund':4 'reopen':7", "contractId": "0bQBfYJpDhI8AEUEyC7z", "createdTime": 1645508173483, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.619", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645865272000, "totalLiquidity": 19.56322267516897, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "07e5173c9004", "prob": 0.3349563697972872, "text": "Create a new market with the same question", "index": 2, "poolNo": 51.61819815766135, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 102.48604589328848, "textFts": "'creat':1 'market':4 'new':3 'question':8", "contractId": "0bQBfYJpDhI8AEUEyC7z", "createdTime": 1645508232432, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.619", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645865272000, "totalLiquidity": 72.73338315598237, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2109645088e5", "prob": 0.40464084635532305, "text": "Create a new market with a similar but not identical question", "index": 3, "poolNo": 85.80188778117862, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 126.24266618318882, "textFts": "'creat':1 'ident':10 'market':4 'new':3 'question':11 'similar':7", "contractId": "0bQBfYJpDhI8AEUEyC7z", "createdTime": 1645508269582, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.62", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645865272000, "totalLiquidity": 104.07621763422593, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "641b3885eeb1", "prob": 0.045648624363648235, "text": "Be so ashamed of this mistake that I never want to come back to MM again", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.9698359140415393, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.275840764308864, "textFts": "'asham':3 'back':13 'come':12 'mistak':6 'mm':15 'never':9 'want':10", "contractId": "0bQBfYJpDhI8AEUEyC7z", "createdTime": 1645508414851, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.619", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645865272000, "totalLiquidity": 4.434437795325828, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4271a20ec7b8", "prob": 0.06943670784685127, "text": "Walk through the streets with people ringing bells ahead and behind me chanting \"shame\"", "index": 5, "poolNo": 4.877364234119064, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 65.36450617362716, "textFts": "'ahead':9 'behind':11 'bell':8 'chant':13 'peopl':6 'ring':7 'shame':14 'street':4 'walk':1", "contractId": "0bQBfYJpDhI8AEUEyC7z", "createdTime": 1645509044033, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.616", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645865272000, "totalLiquidity": 17.855153446333187, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "61c6d28f58b6", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Loan enough M$ from MM to create a new market with a gigantic ante that recreates its conditions at resolve time. Secure the loan with real money.", "index": 6, "poolNo": 9.714771465003035e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.9713799987856534, "textFts": "'ant':14 'condit':18 'creat':7 'enough':2 'gigant':13 'loan':1,24 'm':3 'market':10 'mm':5 'money':27 'new':9 'real':26 'recreat':16 'resolv':20 'secur':22 'time':21", "contractId": "0bQBfYJpDhI8AEUEyC7z", "createdTime": 1645524964232, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.617", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645865272000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009714285714285713, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1645575970662 | {"07e5173c9004": 45.28290258269418, "2109645088e5": 54.71709741730584} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01821045747376999 | ee4z9xgjS90dU0WDRONh | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.01821045747376999 | will-i-accidentally-resolve-this-qu | 182.94885432414435 | {"NO": 131.62037801725253, "YES": 7.430767658603116} | Will I accidentally resolve this question "yes"? | 1645775940000 | ARMEVhOiWvaqFvLASFGwHkDwohI3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 133, "YES": 7} | 0 | 4.921346343038443 | True | play | NO | public | 1645510223712 | Alex Mennen | I will resolve this market to "no". If it resolves "yes", that means I screwed up somehow. How likely is this event to occur?
Close date updated to 2022-02-24 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 137.78022692256323, "YES": 18.76454865501361} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645805814334 | 100 | AlexMennen | 1645510223712 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyFM2z_17VRw8GAHhGexJCyKLxup92j73FsxTn3=s96-c | 10 | 1715658494229 | 0 | 1 | 1645658825264 | 0.01821045747376999 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10237854013953841 | 1ZyojdyCEeD1yqyvvf11 | {"NO": 123.17739302380025, "YES": 561.8416194617721} | 0 | will-george-rr-martin-publish-an-as | 3317.72115762078 | {"NO": 1294.0107523010404, "YES": 237.23315326223428} | Will George R.R. Martin publish an ASOIAF book in 2022? | 1672527540000 | LY6zJkjFbzaZUf29CRhRCZDeoFs2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1301.02, "YES": 228.98000000000002} | 0 | 5.987821159344936 | True | play | NO | public | 1645512490350 | Valentin Manès | Resolves to YES if "The Winds of Winter" or "A Dream of Spring" are released before December 31st 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1427.2808289468715, "YES": 554.5993113358628} | {"creatorFee": 4.002866827874481, "platformFee": 0.4943553413763091, "liquidityFee": 2.966132048257854} | {"NO": 0.0009055385138137418, "YES": 0.0004242640687119285} | 0 | 1672560410902 | 142.96613204825783 | ValentinManes | 1670695063757 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi86Fl9gZNcdWF4UWLwQrStg17BJxpwDaOFG6jb2JY=s96-c | 51 | 1650313772878 | 0 | 1 | 49 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529540582}, {"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1669223920127}] | ["culture-default", "books"] | 1670695063585 | 1652298309169 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7729579217273141 | Ec5AX7QQHNOvWN8rv1l9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7729579217273141 | will-russia-invade-any-parts-of-ukr | 19089.245393208468 | {"NO": 1436.70844665282, "YES": 15968.046160138707} | Will Russia invade any parts of Ukraine besides Donetsk and Luhansk oblast before March 8? | 1646690340000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1403, "YES": 16048} | 0 | 4.617989094067799 | True | play | YES | public | 1645514307027 | Jenny | It looks like @Duncan's question is about to resolve positively. But will Russia stop at just Donetsk and Luhansk, or will they go further?
Resolves YES if Russian military has a presence within Ukraine other than in Crimea, Donetsk oblast, and/or Luhansk oblast between now and March 7 2022, 23:59, Kyiv time.
Feb 22, 11:07am: If Russia invades parts of Donetsk or Luhansk oblast that are not currently controlled by DNR/LNR, that does not count. They need to cross an oblast boundary. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2307.653559363854, "YES": 17251.094248832345} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1645696718040 | 100 | Jenny | 1645514307027 | 0 | 44 | 1715657818620 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529478282}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226542}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1645675839884 | False | 0.7729579217273141 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9006145446403627 | zo227WjpxulgZTj2eJRL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | there-exists-a-more-elegant-way-to | 193.85022569467816 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 87.14977430532187} | There exists a more elegant way to solve fat-fingering the Resolve button than what Gmail does with a little countdown and an Undo button | 1651539199431 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 90} | 0 | 7.743970194330982 | True | play | YES | public | 1645516980390 | Daniel Reeves | (as discussed in the #features channel of the Discord) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 35.35604616610856, "YES": 106.43188515094168} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1651539199431 | 100 | dreev | 1645516980390 | 0 | 6 | 1650315033627 | 0 | 1647809973900 | 0.9006145446403627 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6512340191787852 | RBHrqIyKMsv8Ym3SLjAf | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6512340191787852 | i-test-positive-for-covid19-by-utc | 175 | {"NO": 16.25, "YES": 128.75} | I test positive for COVID-19 by UTC 13:00 on Tuesday, March 1st, 2022. | 1646139600000 | a41HDGtLseYxlhPtuH04uYVf6d32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 16.25, "YES": 128.75} | 0 | 4.910503051902949 | True | play | YES | public | 1645525709170 | Matthew | This market resolves YES if an Antigen or PCR test that I take in the next week shows a positive result.
Background:
* Saturday night there was a gathering of people at our friends' house. All attendees (10) were vaccinated/boostered, but not tested.
* Monday night, both my partner and I developed sore throats and stuffy noses.
* Tuesday morning (now), we've both done Antigen tests that returned negative results, and still have symptoms. Also, a member of the gathering has now tested positive on an Antigen test and is waiting on a PCR result.
Feb 22, 12:19pm: PCR test of the other attendee is now positive.
Feb 23, 8:22am: Antigen test of my partner is now positive.
Feb 23, 1:24pm: https://pasteboard.co/SDRBNBXZPksD.png
Feb 23, 1:24pm: Well, looks like I'll be continuing to stay home for the next few days! Thanks for everyone's input :) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 26.575976001832935, "YES": 142.54475613136387} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000670820393249937, "YES": 0.0007416198487095664} | 0 | 1645619058688 | 100 | Matthew | 1645525709170 | 0 | 6 | 1715658162590 | 0 | 0.6512340191787852 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7448950437650975 | FFvfGYpZGCEaL2nSdCOA | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7448950437650975 | will-the-w3igg-grift-counter-exceed | 364 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 45} | Will the "W3IGG Grift Counter" exceed $250 million in March 2022? | 1646089140000 | 5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 45} | 0 | 5.1511516743779335 | True | play | YES | public | 1645532956582 | Zhao Nan | https://web3isgoinggreat.com/ maintains a counter of the amount of money that is stolen/lost through "web3" applications (see lower right of the page).
This market resolves YES if this Grift Counter reports more than $250 million for March.
Caution: This market will be closed on Febuary 28th, so make your bets before that date!
Resolution will happen once the counter exceeds $250 million, or shortly after the end of March.
Mar 29, 11:07pm: aaaaand there we go, all in one fell swoop | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 35.35604616610857, "YES": 60.41597471281913} | {"creatorFee": 0.9999999999999999, "platformFee": 0.24999999999999997, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648588118766 | 100 | ZhaoNan | 1645532956582 | 0 | 4 | 1715657841281 | 0 | 1 | 1646058932636 | 0.7448950437650975 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9444877303454797 | oxksWTxXVeggS7pYlEa4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9444877303454797 | will-i-be-able-to-not-eat-processed | 1538.3607378877766 | {"NO": 215.51853616183428, "YES": 892.1207259503891} | Will I be able to not eat processed sugar for 7 days? ("sugar free challenge") | 1646175540000 | RkgxY86BkXapNguatNnE45ZaxQG3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 183, "YES": 899} | 0 | 4.659252842439131 | True | play | YES | public | 1645533371494 | chris kux | This market resolves to yes if I don't eat - at my best knowledge - any processed sugar (only allowed exception is soy milk). Artificial sweeteners like Xylitol or Stevia are also not allowed. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 412.6897602968127, "YES": 1027.888180688052} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1646211260751 | 100 | chrislkj | 1645533371494 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fchrislkj%2FydIrfIlRbj.39?alt=media&token=de0d9748-f0ec-4844-a8e6-a316b74867c4 | 22 | 1715658695462 | 0 | 1 | 1646160926147 | 0.9444877303454797 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013350872892246079 | 49pPzgo2aJGv7gtTWoRx | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.013350872892246079 | will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-5b535bc7cf6b | 10980.441596115177 | {"NO": 3722.692256948698, "YES": 774.8661469361259} | Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $825 on February 22, 2022? | 1645563600000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3782, "YES": 253} | 0 | 4.626175094001578 | True | play | NO | public | 1645539888581 | Predictor 🔥 | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.
Trading closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.
This question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.
Reference: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA
Close date updated to 2022-02-22 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-22 3:00 pm
Feb 22, 3:21pm: This is turning out to be the longest hour ever...
Close date updated to 2022-02-22 4:00 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 4475.349248194102, "YES": 446.4187475468569} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645563635748 | 100 | Predictor | 1645539888581 | 0 | 14 | 1715656968214 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529424232}] | ["wall-street-bets"] | 1645563654215 | 0.013350872892246079 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t | suggest-features | 14559.557896995722 | Suggest features. | 253402297140000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1645540247675 | Gurkenglas | There is no reason the next feature market should wait until the resolution of https://manifold.markets/Austin/what-new-manifold-features-would-be .
I plan to resolve PROB so as to create good incentives.
For example, if someone finds a loophole and stakes M$ 10000 one second before closing time, expecting to siphon this pool into their account for no meaningful contribution, and this is plain as day to all involved, I expect to try to make sure they don't profit.
If someone gives an answer you expect deserves payment, and so you immediately double their stake, allowing them to immediately cash out at a profit, that is a reasonable way to gain the payout they would have. I too may do so, if I make sure to not unduly profit from insider knowledge.
I plan to pay out 3% of profits on this market, that is, 75% of the creator's commission, to the ANTE answer, allowing others to subsidize this market. The remaining percentage point seems a fair commission for my administration.
The rules may change in the face of good arguments, especially when that doesn't discourage early contribution. I won't ignore the incentives of people that have already acted. In fact, good arguments in the form of answers will be rewarded! For this "smart contract" with a human in place of a blockchain also could use feature suggestions. But do mark such answers "Meta: ".
I don't plan to reward previously suggested features unless you weren't paid enough for them. I think you should be paid for your feature requests that have already been implemented before this market's creation, but I will take the opinions of ANTE stakes into account here.
I consent to this market being transferred to another user by Manifold staff if future me behaves in ways that apparent present me grossly disapproves of. If I get tired of this, I may say so and close this after 24 hours. If Manifold doesn't implement partial payouts and history archival in time we may have to close and reopen this. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5376994412138206, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 5640.000000000003 | Gurkenglas | 1718818086359 | 0.1 | 0 | 81 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "348b099f8418", "prob": 0.004334429098924284, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.006313335261625285, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.450241869019401, "textFts": "", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1645540247808, "probChanges": {"day": -0.998, "week": -0.998, "month": -0.998}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:01.658", "probChangeDay": -0.998, "probChangeWeek": -0.998, "totalLiquidity": 0.09568627450980392, "probChangeMonth": -0.998}, {"id": "7a9af50fa5a7", "prob": 0.16070658042861807, "text": "ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.", "index": 1, "poolNo": 53.26240617620189, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 278.16401105043894, "textFts": "'ant':1 'market':8 'stake':2 'subsid':6", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1645540267278, "probChanges": {"day": -0.055464943786290105, "week": -0.055464943786290105, "month": -0.055464943786290105}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:01.656", "probChangeDay": -0.055464943786290105, "probChangeWeek": -0.055464943786290105, "totalLiquidity": 121.71969659907138, "probChangeMonth": -0.055464943786290105}, {"id": "e2a67b596f41", "prob": 0.0024232682644000116, "text": "Resolve market to probabilities other than market probabilities. Useful for betting on outcomes of other markets.", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.01654478684268377, "userId": "KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.810923341940891, "textFts": "'bet':11 'market':2,7,16 'outcom':13 'probabl':4,8 'resolv':1 'use':9", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1645541030297, "probChanges": {"day": -7.58415380348312e-05, "week": -7.58415380348312e-05, "month": -7.58415380348312e-05}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:01.653", "probChangeDay": -7.58415380348312e-05, "probChangeWeek": -7.58415380348312e-05, "totalLiquidity": 0.33568627450980393, "probChangeMonth": -7.58415380348312e-05}, {"id": "98c3a201fec0", "prob": 0.01147011278822669, "text": "Short answers on free response questions", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.3892704192177522, "userId": "F4un9TGwviVjelWScLjU4ZR4LYG3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 33.54853179815124, "textFts": "'answer':2 'free':4 'question':6 'respons':5 'short':1", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1645562851507, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0035710729809882557, "week": -0.0035710729809882557, "month": -0.0035710729809882557}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:00.767", "probChangeDay": -0.0035710729809882557, "probChangeWeek": -0.0035710729809882557, "totalLiquidity": 3.6137862467509643, "probChangeMonth": -0.0035710729809882557}, {"id": "a146c3b6464f", "prob": 0.006520702589135292, "text": "Graph showing the pool size of a market over time", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.20642562690336858, "userId": "F4un9TGwviVjelWScLjU4ZR4LYG3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.450535272879456, "textFts": "'graph':1 'market':8 'pool':4 'show':2 'size':5 'time':10", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1645563308835, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0019028723803640006, "week": -0.0019028723803640006, "month": -0.0019028723803640006}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:00.767", "probChangeDay": -0.0019028723803640006, "probChangeWeek": -0.0019028723803640006, "totalLiquidity": 2.5479788971164274, "probChangeMonth": -0.0019028723803640006}, {"id": "c34c35f59291", "prob": 0.0024232682644000116, "text": "A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.01654478684268377, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.810923341940891, "textFts": "'bid/sell':12 'exchang':6 'let':8 'market':4,18 'meta':3 'meta-market':2 'order':13 'place':10 'share':15 'simpl':5 'whatev':17", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1645593902804, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0007325724914651857, "week": -0.0007325724914651857, "month": -0.0007325724914651857}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:01.656", "probChangeDay": -0.0007325724914651857, "probChangeWeek": -0.0007325724914651857, "totalLiquidity": 0.33568627450980393, "probChangeMonth": -0.0007325724914651857}, {"id": "e384f3031c68", "prob": 0.010955756474817622, "text": "Set a time to stop allowing creation of new free response answers separately from the market close time", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.5013423415954048, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.25928977429421, "textFts": "'allow':6 'answer':12 'close':17 'creation':7 'free':10 'market':16 'new':9 'respons':11 'separ':13 'set':1 'stop':5 'time':3,18", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1645597291083, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0002554036182012571, "week": -0.0002554036182012571, "month": -0.0002554036182012571}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:00.767", "probChangeDay": -0.0002554036182012571, "probChangeWeek": -0.0002554036182012571, "totalLiquidity": 4.7634439552061085, "probChangeMonth": -0.0002554036182012571}, {"id": "6bb7de96fe10", "prob": 0.0035077938172973426, "text": "We need numerical range questions. Many topics are way more informative when expressed that way, over a Yes No.", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.05498068169883353, "userId": "YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.618882881124428, "textFts": "'express':13 'inform':11 'mani':6 'need':2 'numer':3 'question':5 'rang':4 'topic':7 'way':9,15 'yes':18", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1645609690275, "probChanges": {"day": -0.00020385451512977331, "week": -0.00020385451512977331, "month": -0.00020385451512977331}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:00.764", "probChangeDay": -0.00020385451512977331, "probChangeWeek": -0.00020385451512977331, "totalLiquidity": 0.9266805426782534, "probChangeMonth": -0.00020385451512977331}, {"id": "59a8cba33744", "prob": 0.021988780094026487, "text": "Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.", "index": 8, "poolNo": 1.7105598062111522, "userId": "tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 76.08183244550116, "textFts": "'abil':1 'comment':8 'help':7 'm':5 'tip':3 'user':4", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1645630075805, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0014452777581942938, "week": -0.0014452777581942938, "month": -0.0014452777581942938}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:00.767", "probChangeDay": -0.0014452777581942938, "probChangeWeek": -0.0014452777581942938, "totalLiquidity": 11.408002654459976, "probChangeMonth": -0.0014452777581942938}, {"id": "1e2bb4586970", "prob": 0.019961067937554814, "text": "Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)", "index": 9, "poolNo": 1.134704832002702, "userId": "ojKdYJvKvdZiWDEyBmEab7kZXYI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 55.71119317067204, "textFts": "'abil':1 'attach':3 'e.g':10 'good':21 'keep':12 'market':22 'note':6 'observ':18 'person':5 'privat':4 'resolv':23 'track':13 'user':9 've':17", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1645835691916, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0006179388081192956, "week": -0.0006179388081192956, "month": -0.0006179388081192956}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:00.766", "probChangeDay": -0.0006179388081192956, "probChangeWeek": -0.0006179388081192956, "totalLiquidity": 7.95083392402316, "probChangeMonth": -0.0006179388081192956}, {"id": "93007fa90647", "prob": 0.029992974511377453, "text": "Ability to include a short message when resolving a market", "index": 10, "poolNo": 4.853268117771461, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 156.9602297708903, "textFts": "'abil':1 'includ':3 'market':10 'messag':6 'resolv':8 'short':5", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1646091297053, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:03:42.962", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 27.60018258825736, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2aa6494f1b88", "prob": 0.004334429098924284, "text": "A \"poll\" category of market. You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins. (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)", "index": 11, "poolNo": 0.006313335261625285, "userId": "z0v7b1gwqdMoz0R8KHAjhqQ27vZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.450241869019401, "textFts": "'4':34 'answer':22 'balanc':40 'bettor':32 'buy':8 'categori':3 'could':24,27 'creator':37 'els':43 'get':33,38 'mani':10 'market':5 'payout':17 'poll':2 'revers':28 'someth':42 'system':30 'unrel':19 'vote':11 'want':14 'win':23 'zero':26", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1646095538950, "probChanges": {"day": 0.002, "week": 0.002, "month": 0.002}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:00.767", "probChangeDay": 0.002, "probChangeWeek": 0.002, "totalLiquidity": 0.09568627450980392, "probChangeMonth": 0.002}, {"id": "0f384b6d3c42", "prob": 0.004334429098924284, "text": "Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. \"Will I do ...\")", "index": 12, "poolNo": 0.006313335261625285, "userId": "UH9Uv9kHAVOnKtDVm9Hw8se3xrm2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.450241869019401, "textFts": "'eg':7 'number':3 'person':5 'question':6 'reduc':1", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1646221049312, "probChanges": {"day": 0.002, "week": 0.002, "month": 0.002}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:00.767", "probChangeDay": 0.002, "probChangeWeek": 0.002, "totalLiquidity": 0.09568627450980392, "probChangeMonth": 0.002}, {"id": "96ef4766e2af", "prob": 0.0025834972857076447, "text": "Market Indicies, Allowing Multiple Markets to Be Combined Into One and Automatically Weighted with Drag and Drop Type Feature", "index": 13, "poolNo": 0.013012871623052124, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.023908086274441, "textFts": "'allow':3 'automat':12 'combin':8 'drag':15 'drop':17 'featur':19 'indici':2 'market':1,5 'multipl':4 'one':10 'type':18 'weight':13", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1646235661390, "probChanges": {"day": 0.0008120803004970124, "week": 0.0008120803004970124, "month": 0.0008120803004970124}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:00.766", "probChangeDay": 0.0008120803004970124, "probChangeWeek": 0.0008120803004970124, "totalLiquidity": 0.2556862745098039, "probChangeMonth": 0.0008120803004970124}, {"id": "58af2f82f0de", "prob": 0.0022790712524054318, "text": "Show currently placed on market overviews, like https://manifold.markets/markets (it is easy to forget where loans were used)", "index": 14, "poolNo": 0.03250003146319097, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.227708563985068, "textFts": "'/markets':10 'current':2 'easi':13 'forget':15 'like':7 'loan':17 'manifold.markets':9 'manifold.markets/markets':8 'market':5 'overview':6 'place':3 'show':1 'use':19", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1646242850794, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0013715965691001196, "week": -0.0013715965691001196, "month": -0.0013715965691001196}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:00.767", "probChangeDay": -0.0013715965691001196, "probChangeWeek": -0.0013715965691001196, "totalLiquidity": 0.6800007176309641, "probChangeMonth": -0.0013715965691001196}, {"id": "ff212662c253", "prob": 0.004334429098924284, "text": "Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to not have ability to skip all this gambling (\"yes iff pool divisible by 2\" etc)", "index": 15, "poolNo": 0.006313335261625285, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.450241869019401, "textFts": "'2':26 'abil':15 'allow':1 'communities/tags':4 'divis':24 'etc':27 'exclud':3 'feed/market':6 'gambl':20 'iff':22 'nice':11 'overview':7 'pool':23 'skip':17 'would':9 'yes':21", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1646243042592, "probChanges": {"day": 0.002, "week": 0.002, "month": 0.002}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:00.762", "probChangeDay": 0.002, "probChangeWeek": 0.002, "totalLiquidity": 0.09568627450980392, "probChangeMonth": 0.002}, {"id": "acd47e16b448", "prob": 0.005059836540106933, "text": "Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to skip all this gambling (\"yes iff pool divisible by 2\" etc)", "index": 16, "poolNo": 0.1256929242118826, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.715608413405292, "textFts": "'2':22 'allow':1 'communities/tags':4 'divis':20 'etc':23 'exclud':3 'feed/market':6 'gambl':16 'iff':18 'nice':11 'overview':7 'pool':19 'skip':13 'would':9 'yes':17", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1646608818710, "probChanges": {"day": -0.00045765698406343997, "week": -0.00045765698406343997, "month": -0.00045765698406343997}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:01.811", "probChangeDay": -0.00045765698406343997, "probChangeWeek": -0.00045765698406343997, "totalLiquidity": 1.7625484660447552, "probChangeMonth": -0.00045765698406343997}, {"id": "0056daa74756", "prob": 0.0164528371093755, "text": "Allow users to edit their comments", "index": 17, "poolNo": 0.5899901164318192, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 35.26948582134542, "textFts": "'allow':1 'comment':6 'edit':4 'user':2", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1646668492985, "probChanges": {"day": -0.004258424680106707, "week": -0.004258424680106707, "month": -0.004258424680106707}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:00.763", "probChangeDay": -0.004258424680106707, "probChangeWeek": -0.004258424680106707, "totalLiquidity": 4.561649706655038, "probChangeMonth": -0.004258424680106707}, {"id": "eb2cda8f5c50", "prob": 0.004334429098924284, "text": "In \"Your Trades\", show each market's M$ pool", "index": 18, "poolNo": 0.006313335261625285, "userId": "AAT00aRB1xNPiXzCAKekJp4yWQ42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.450241869019401, "textFts": "'m':8 'market':6 'pool':9 'show':4 'trade':3", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1646814625407, "probChanges": {"day": 0.002, "week": 0.002, "month": 0.002}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:00.767", "probChangeDay": 0.002, "probChangeWeek": 0.002, "totalLiquidity": 0.09568627450980392, "probChangeMonth": 0.002}, {"id": "d7998679c7e7", "prob": 0.0025834972857076447, "text": "Reduced fees for long horizon markets to increase trading volume.", "index": 19, "poolNo": 0.013012871623052124, "userId": "z0v7b1gwqdMoz0R8KHAjhqQ27vZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.023908086274441, "textFts": "'fee':2 'horizon':5 'increas':8 'long':4 'market':6 'reduc':1 'trade':9 'volum':10", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1647385540144, "probChanges": {"day": 0.002, "week": 0.002, "month": 0.002}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:00.767", "probChangeDay": 0.002, "probChangeWeek": 0.002, "totalLiquidity": 0.2556862745098039, "probChangeMonth": 0.002}, {"id": "f8a34f882c1a", "prob": 0.0025834972857076447, "text": "Upload photos with comments. Useful for proof of results and other fun things. ", "index": 20, "poolNo": 0.013012871623052124, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.023908086274441, "textFts": "'comment':4 'fun':12 'photo':2 'proof':7 'result':9 'thing':13 'upload':1 'use':5", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1647684519342, "probChanges": {"day": 0.001994286727335275, "week": 0.001994286727335275, "month": 0.001994286727335275}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:00.763", "probChangeDay": 0.001994286727335275, "probChangeWeek": 0.001994286727335275, "totalLiquidity": 0.2556862745098039, "probChangeMonth": 0.001994286727335275}, {"id": "c8801dcf7587", "prob": 0.05023395613474058, "text": "Reminders. Allow users to set a custom reminder to return to a market.", "index": 21, "poolNo": 4.183553906917189, "userId": "hlRu3s01YZTAhxEcMgZljxmBOoL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 79.09784036941267, "textFts": "'allow':2 'custom':7 'market':13 'remind':1,8 'return':10 'set':5 'user':3", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1647731602444, "probChanges": {"day": -0.002602217408751842, "week": -0.002602217408751842, "month": -0.002602217408751842}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:00.767", "probChangeDay": -0.002602217408751842, "probChangeWeek": -0.002602217408751842, "totalLiquidity": 18.1909339811393, "probChangeMonth": -0.002602217408751842}, {"id": "033bde663128", "prob": 0.00897854308520456, "text": "I would like there to be a feature that integrates something like an RSS feed. If key words or phrases about specific event occurs, trading is suspended until the market is either resolved or the RSS notification is tagged as a false positive. As what often happens, the gains of many bettors are wiped out by slow resolutions of markets.", "index": 22, "poolNo": 0.16512463245790018, "userId": "2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.22590283056152, "textFts": "'bettor':52 'either':32 'event':23 'fals':42 'featur':8 'feed':15 'gain':49 'happen':47 'integr':10 'key':17 'like':3,12 'mani':51 'market':30,60 'notif':37 'occur':24 'often':46 'phrase':20 'posit':43 'resolut':58 'resolv':33 'rss':14,36 'slow':57 'someth':11 'specif':22 'suspend':27 'tag':39 'trade':25 'wipe':54 'word':18 'would':2", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1647757058613, "probChanges": {"day": -0.005469695391559426, "week": -0.005469695391559426, "month": -0.005469695391559426}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:01.805", "probChangeDay": -0.005469695391559426, "probChangeWeek": -0.005469695391559426, "totalLiquidity": 1.7348041693833556, "probChangeMonth": -0.005469695391559426}, {"id": "d675d30de5e9", "prob": 0.0024232682644000116, "text": "Zoom on the chart", "index": 23, "poolNo": 0.01654478684268377, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.810923341940891, "textFts": "'chart':4 'zoom':1", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1647768341752, "probChanges": {"day": 0.00032800644120912267, "week": 0.00032800644120912267, "month": 0.00032800644120912267}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:01.811", "probChangeDay": 0.00032800644120912267, "probChangeWeek": 0.00032800644120912267, "totalLiquidity": 0.33568627450980393, "probChangeMonth": 0.00032800644120912267}, {"id": "4c3d73d6094d", "prob": 0.08857860140440509, "text": "Ability to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. 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2.533315463860196, "textFts": "'add':4 'aren':10 'categori':5 'market':8 'tag':6 'trust':1 'user':2", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1661454102531, "probChanges": {"day": -0.000756681784704988, "week": -0.000756681784704988, "month": -0.000756681784704988}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:01.836", "probChangeDay": -0.000756681784704988, "probChangeWeek": -0.000756681784704988, "totalLiquidity": 0.21751659612671143, "probChangeMonth": -0.000756681784704988}, {"id": "bc1a37ce4fcd", "prob": 0.0029371555181695605, "text": "User create their own currency", "index": 47, "poolNo": 0.009535424645960112, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.236947298850616, "textFts": "'creat':2 'currenc':5 'user':1", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1662913883944, "probChanges": {"day": 0.0017386419366916838, "week": 0.0017386419366916838, "month": 0.0017386419366916838}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:00.767", "probChangeDay": 0.0017386419366916838, "probChangeWeek": 0.0017386419366916838, "totalLiquidity": 0.17568627450980392, "probChangeMonth": 0.0017386419366916838}, {"id": "e00501e7d3b5", "prob": 0.01823808372005706, "text": "Zen mode: Hide the probabilities from the user until they decide to buy.", "index": 48, "poolNo": 0.09250689359522207, "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.979675854063129, "textFts": "'buy':13 'decid':11 'hide':3 'mode':2 'probabl':5 'user':8 'zen':1", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1673655611155, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0010335732478827242, "week": -0.0010335732478827242, "month": -0.0010335732478827242}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:01.81", "probChangeDay": -0.0010335732478827242, "probChangeWeek": -0.0010335732478827242, "totalLiquidity": 0.678715215956232, "probChangeMonth": -0.0010335732478827242}, {"id": "abcc03efa637", "prob": 0.024099796852556504, "text": "Market Scanner (like stock screeners)", "index": 49, "poolNo": 0.14684736880176286, "userId": "KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.946455811311363, "textFts": "'like':3 'market':1 'scanner':2 'screener':5 'stock':4", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1700514179974, "probChanges": {"day": -7.681327043643563e-05, "week": -7.681327043643563e-05, "month": -7.681327043643563e-05}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:01.812", "probChangeDay": -7.681327043643563e-05, "probChangeWeek": -7.681327043643563e-05, "totalLiquidity": 0.9344631558210447, "probChangeMonth": -7.681327043643563e-05}, {"id": "dc5cd72f2be1", "prob": 0.0077427713049987, "text": "On-site mouseover previews for market & user links (advanced setting, or with held key) ", "index": 50, "poolNo": 0.0207488635181592, "userId": "jBr3Rs1Hz4TBfQBzwgTyrL4qqr52", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.6590233654205697, "textFts": "'advanc':10 'held':14 'key':15 'link':9 'market':7 'mouseov':4 'on-sit':1 'preview':5 'set':11 'site':3 'user':8", "contractId": "NQkFVfmQY6UsEiUSF05t", "createdTime": 1701328987243, "probChanges": {"day": -2.414784668391956e-06, "week": -2.414784668391956e-06, "month": -2.414784668391956e-06}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:35:01.835", "probChangeDay": -2.414784668391956e-06, "probChangeWeek": -2.414784668391956e-06, "totalLiquidity": 0.23488659583021707, "probChangeMonth": -2.414784668391956e-06}] | 75 | [{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1658529557515}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.13471611473277942 | 1718818082545 | 1701328908636 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01111198341714252 | QLWEwRt49op0CY0jc5IA | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.01111198341714252 | will-ben-landautaylor-tell-us-to-ev | 3061.595025794136 | {"NO": 2733.830387500574, "YES": 82.57458670529013} | Will Ben Landau-Taylor tell us to evacuate for risk of nuclear war before Apr 1 2022? | 1648785540000 | FPs5hzoibSUgBLOEexZTAQO4kfm1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2736, "YES": 78} | 0 | 4.632714796974052 | True | play | NO | public | 1645540549078 | Ophelia | Ben Landau-Taylor recently tweeted this: https://twitter.com/benlandautaylor/status/1495908407114702852
His blog post has a sign up form; if you sign up, hell tell you if he has decided to evacuate.
This question will resolve YES if Ben sends an email to this list telling us to evacuate, or telling us that he himself evacuated, before Apr 1 2022 00:00 Eastern time.
- If a nuclear missile targets a major US city, this will resolve YES regardless of what Ben does
- If it turns out that he tried to send this message, but some technological disruption prevents me from receiving it, this will resolve YES. I will wait a bit before resolving the question if it looks like there are major technological disruptions.
- If there are other points that need clarification, I'll put them in the comments.
Feb 24, 8:08pm: I'm going to try to increase the pool on this question (without distorting the market) by buying some YES and NO... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2800.7143328766347, "YES": 296.88690971794233} | {"creatorFee": 3.216198968234575, "platformFee": 0.8040497420586438, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1648786635254 | 100 | Ophelia | 1645540549078 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjHJ7fDIclHMksPAWYaVwA8WNC_yVZpTf-g4hNO=s96-c | 23 | 1715658142113 | 0 | 1648751464145 | 0.01111198341714252 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AQSqjYkmQv9Gk7AERSsn | how-should-duncan-resolve-russia-in | 131.88806656296117 | How should Duncan resolve 'Russia invades Ukraine' and why? | 1647989940000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.971936259517102 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645541849382 | Gurkenglas | @Duncan has stated on Discord:
Russia sending more troops into Donetsk/Luhansk will totally resolve the market yes.
Even 100 troops will be sufficient, as long as they aren't sneaky about it.
But I really want to be sure it's happening (it looks like it is, but I want to be SURE).
So, if I do not have a better source than some random British politician (sorry Sajid), it is possible that I may try reopening the market at 6pm (EST) today.
If anyone has comments on this, please respond here with clear arguments for or against, tagging me.
And I have limited ability to check MM during the work day, so don't expect a quick response. Sorry :-/
But he got no reply so far. Let's help him out. Duncan, you should stake money on ANTE whenever you get around to seeing this, even if people have already given the answers you need.
I plan to resolve PROB so as to create good incentives, see https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/suggest-features for details.
Close date updated to 2022-02-23 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-23 3:59 am
Close date updated to 2022-02-22 11:59 pm
Feb 22, 3:57pm: oh, every edit of that is logged ^^
Feb 22, 5:43pm: This may have been unclear: What Duncan is missing is evidence, not opinions.
Feb 22, 10:12pm: TO MAYBE GET MONEY AN ANSWER MUST BE A LINK TO A NEWS SOURCE. (modulo ANTE)
Close date updated to 2022-03-22 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645570957890 | 500 | Gurkenglas | 1645541849382 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "cffc44677f91", "prob": 0.007417307542452165, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0577070123173647, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.722341473886663, "textFts": "", "contractId": "AQSqjYkmQv9Gk7AERSsn", "createdTime": 1645541849533, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.499", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645570957000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6675576788206948, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9124a7d551af", "prob": 0.2596057639858258, "text": "ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.", "index": 1, "poolNo": 13.835106006025926, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 39.45764756619948, "textFts": "'ant':1 'market':8 'stake':2 'subsid':6", "contractId": "AQSqjYkmQv9Gk7AERSsn", "createdTime": 1645541883020, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.499", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645570957000, "totalLiquidity": 23.364518758724323, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "94e9b99462ea", "prob": 0.38833607548968324, "text": "Should remain unresolved until Russian troops enter territory under de facto Ukrainian control, or the period ends. It should have resolved positevely long agoe if the question refered. occupation of de jure Ukrainian territory. Because Russian Troops have never left Crimea. ", "index": 2, "poolNo": 77.41596929758416, "userId": "2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 121.93705037735674, "textFts": "'ago':24 'control':13 'crimea':41 'de':10,31 'end':17 'enter':7 'facto':11 'jure':32 'left':40 'long':23 'never':39 'occup':29 'period':16 'positev':22 'question':27 'refer':28 'remain':2 'resolv':21 'russian':5,36 'territori':8,34 'troop':6,37 'ukrainian':12,33 'unresolv':3", "contractId": "AQSqjYkmQv9Gk7AERSsn", "createdTime": 1645544921149, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.499", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645570957000, "totalLiquidity": 97.1590188724208, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "60402a125a16", "prob": 0.10072084988099825, "text": "Should resolve when Russian troops enter Ukraine minus Crimea", "index": 3, "poolNo": 7.078660849946825, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 63.2013343874868, "textFts": "'crimea':9 'enter':6 'minus':8 'resolv':2 'russian':4 'troop':5 'ukrain':7", "contractId": "AQSqjYkmQv9Gk7AERSsn", "createdTime": 1645546651919, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.499", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645570957000, "totalLiquidity": 21.151378475009633, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a721838ed3b3", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Should resolve when Russian troops enter Ukraine minus Crimea, LNR, and DNR", "index": 4, "poolNo": 9.000450033752814e-05, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.8999549988749438, "textFts": "'crimea':9 'dnr':12 'enter':6 'lnr':10 'minus':8 'resolv':2 'russian':4 'troop':5 'ukrain':7", "contractId": "AQSqjYkmQv9Gk7AERSsn", "createdTime": 1645546675880, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.499", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645570957000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009000000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "21b0a9cda2c7", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Should resolve when Russian troops enter Ukraine minus Crimea, Luhansk oblast, and Donetsk oblast", "index": 5, "poolNo": 9.000450033752814e-05, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.8999549988749438, "textFts": "'crimea':9 'donetsk':13 'enter':6 'luhansk':10 'minus':8 'oblast':11,14 'resolv':2 'russian':4 'troop':5 'ukrain':7", "contractId": "AQSqjYkmQv9Gk7AERSsn", "createdTime": 1645546698015, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.499", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645570957000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009000000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c59fc6861d5f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "test answer, supposed to disappear.", "index": 6, "poolNo": 9.000450033752814e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.8999549988749438, "textFts": "'answer':2 'disappear':5 'suppos':3 'test':1", "contractId": "AQSqjYkmQv9Gk7AERSsn", "createdTime": 1645551409486, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.499", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645570957000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009000000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b6e732a5905f", "prob": 0.24362000310104065, "text": "White House officials are calling this an invasion. I think it should count as an invasion on this basis, assuming Russia deploys military personnel.\n\n> \"We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia's latest invasion into Ukraine,\" Finer said, according to the Associated Press. \"An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.\"\n\nhttps://www.npr.org/2022/02/22/1082308773/biden-russia-ukraine-updates", "index": 7, "poolNo": 12.443481558478313, "userId": "AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 38.633939835845446, "textFts": "'/2022/02/22/1082308773/biden-russia-ukraine-updates':61 'accord':43 'associ':46 'assum':20 'basi':19 'begin':31 'call':5 'count':13 'deploy':22 'finer':41 'hous':2 'invas':8,16,34,38,49,52 'latest':37 'militari':23 'offici':3 'personnel':24 'press':47 'russia':21,35 'said':42 'think':10,26 'ukrain':40 'underway':58 'white':1 'www.npr.org':60 'www.npr.org/2022/02/22/1082308773/biden-russia-ukraine-updates':59 'yes':29", "contractId": "AQSqjYkmQv9Gk7AERSsn", "createdTime": 1645567314549, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.542", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645570957000, "totalLiquidity": 21.925800279093657, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529474995}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226490}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1645570952046 | False | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.888457509336706 | mahZVZIEgPqHIQGVPw29 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.888457509336706 | will-gazprom-stock-ogzpy-trade-unde | 82 | {"NO": 15.000000000000002, "YES": 67} | Will Gazprom Stock (OGZPY) trade under 5 USD at any point in March?50 | 1648763940000 | ZHksHVGImoNz8rFfEqYDMZ6l1yw2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15.000000000000002, "YES": 67} | 0 | 5.088900294929572 | True | play | YES | public | 1645542186914 | Blue Barry | Will Gazprom Stock (OGZPY) trade under 5 USD at any point in March? I will use yahoo finance as a source for the stock price. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 27.38667559781581, "YES": 77.29252228191288} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1645715468355 | 100 | BlueBarry | 1645542186914 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxk40cETag7Ve1bQF4HTKq598iW_Fh3ZCJ9I74Y=s96-c | 4 | 1715658647555 | 0 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529575198}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.888457509336706 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5722101314818504 | wkzHO7GeR9oQwVrofHpF | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5722101314818504 | will-i-receive-900-feet-of-film-ord | 229.17163623739884 | {"NO": 80, "YES": 126.82836376260116} | Will I receive 900 feet of film ordered from Novosibirsk, Russia before July 1st 2022? | 1645985100000 | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 80, "YES": 128} | 0 | 4.8311686942377055 | True | play | YES | public | 1645544049863 | Adam | I live in the United States. On 2/13/2022, I ordered a large reel of expired film from a Russian seller. It was shipped 2/14/2022. As of 2/20/2022, the tracking info provided by Почта России is "Released from Russia". Ebay has said that the estimated arrival date in March 15th, but that seems very optimistic to me, even before considering Ukrainian geopolitics. In short, this is a crude proxy for whether the global mail system between Russia and the US breaks down or not in the next month or two.
Close date updated to 2022-02-27 10:05 am
Feb 27, 10:03am: Closed the market as I received as notification from USPS that the package has hit the stateside postal tracking system and is in Chicago, and should be delivered 3/2/2022. I'll keep the market open until it actually arrives, but it appears that ebay was actually correct here.
Mar 7, 10:53pm: The film arrived today. US Customs did not open it, nor did Russian customs. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 135.27808396115017, "YES": 156.45518755938514} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1646722421133 | 100 | Adam | 1645544049863 | 0 | 8 | 1715658893313 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529511920}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529577445}] | ["politics-default", "economics-default"] | 1645728911147 | 0.5722101314818504 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29276756565844525 | J22f5h8YChzEufdMtLUg | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.29276756565844525 | will-the-average-temperature-for-th | 89 | {"NO": 57, "YES": 32} | Will the average temperature for the Twin Cities area on March 8th-14th, 2022 be greater than the Mean Average Temperature for March in that Region (33.3 degrees F)? | 1646287140000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 57, "YES": 32} | 0 | 5.05894248813302 | True | play | NO | public | 1645545716852 | Patrick Delaney | Using https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mpx
The bet is on the measured Average Temperature March 8th-14th, 2022 vs. the Mean Average Temperature for March in the Twin Cities region according to weather.gov.
Feb 22, 10:01am: Resolution will be YES/NO if greater than or equal, and PROB will be 50% if the values were the same rounded to 0.X significant figure.
Mar 15, 7:07am: Average Temp from March 8th-14th was 22.7 deg F ... Mean Average Temperature is 33.3 deg F ! It was almost 10 degrees colder this second week of March this year...oofda, it's a cold one, you betcha! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 74.84727116268168, "YES": 48.156661019011686} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647346319588 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645545716852 | 0 | 6 | 1715657926066 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529526690}] | ["science-default"] | 0.29276756565844525 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bH6zPpf5uJfKTBKWycEB | what-joke-makes-me-laugh-out-loud | 33.48050431594754 | What joke makes me laugh out loud? | 1646175540000 | iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.996900628296145 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645547971088 | Mr Stone | This question will resolve as soon as an answer makes me at least exhale louder than normally upon reading it.
Feb 22, 5:39pm: but I will only check once every day, at 9:00 UTC. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1646203628580 | 440.00000000000006 | stone | 1645547971088 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c70621cef770", "prob": 0.37789029619127845, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 22.49063527999725, "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 37.02567277733656, "textFts": "", "contractId": "bH6zPpf5uJfKTBKWycEB", "createdTime": 1645547971390, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.517", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646203628000, "totalLiquidity": 28.85707716369763, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4a9bf10c5dd8", "prob": 0.018285805070683486, "text": "A nervous man goes to the KGB. \"My talking parrot has disappeared.\" \n\"That's not the kind of case we handle. Go to the criminal police.\" \n\"Yes, of course I know that I must go to them. I am here just to tell you officially that I disagree with the parrot.\"", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.29039950910265516, "userId": "eJz5Mol38CYKGtzfWuunjUhMFJG3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.590744798195852, "textFts": "'case':19 'cours':29 'crimin':25 'disagre':48 'disappear':12 'go':22,35 'goe':4 'handl':21 'kgb':7 'kind':17 'know':31 'man':3 'must':34 'nervous':2 'offici':45 'parrot':10,51 'polic':26 'talk':9 'tell':43 'yes':27", "contractId": "bH6zPpf5uJfKTBKWycEB", "createdTime": 1645572705463, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.514", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646203628000, "totalLiquidity": 2.1278027718613512, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "40143b9b135b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Why didn't the skeleton cross the road? It didn't have the guts.", "index": 2, "poolNo": 7.636745483184207e-05, "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7635981808635888, "textFts": "'cross':6 'didn':2,10 'gut':14 'road':8 'skeleton':5", "contractId": "bH6zPpf5uJfKTBKWycEB", "createdTime": 1645573472199, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.514", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646203628000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007636363636363638, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ad64b94fd6ed", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "This is your captain speaking, AND THIS IS YOUR CAPTAIN SHOUTING", "index": 3, "poolNo": 7.636745483184207e-05, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7635981808635888, "textFts": "'captain':4,10 'shout':11 'speak':5", "contractId": "bH6zPpf5uJfKTBKWycEB", "createdTime": 1645595527215, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.514", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646203628000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007636363636363638, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "23fee99d1c3b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather. Not screaming in terror, like the passengers in his car.", "index": 4, "poolNo": 7.636745483184207e-05, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7635981808635888, "textFts": "'car':24 'die':3 'go':7 'grandfath':14 'like':12,19 'passeng':21 'peac':8 'scream':16 'sleep':11 'terror':18 'want':5", "contractId": "bH6zPpf5uJfKTBKWycEB", "createdTime": 1645595856414, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.518", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646203628000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007636363636363638, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "91c0443eb4a7", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "I just got my doctor’s test results and I’m really upset about it. Turns out, I’m not gonna be a doctor.", "index": 5, "poolNo": 7.636745483184207e-05, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7635981808635888, "textFts": "'doctor':5,24 'gonna':21 'got':3 'm':11,19 'realli':12 'result':8 'test':7 'turn':16 'upset':13", "contractId": "bH6zPpf5uJfKTBKWycEB", "createdTime": 1645847924081, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.517", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646203628000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007636363636363638, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "90649444b4c1", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "When I see the names of lovers engraved on a tree, I don’t find it cute or romantic. I find it weird how many people take knives with them on outings.", "index": 6, "poolNo": 7.636745483184207e-05, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7635981808635888, "textFts": "'cute':17 'engrav':8 'find':15,21 'knive':28 'lover':7 'mani':25 'name':5 'outing':32 'peopl':26 'romant':19 'see':3 'take':27 'tree':11 'weird':23", "contractId": "bH6zPpf5uJfKTBKWycEB", "createdTime": 1645848037280, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.518", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646203628000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007636363636363638, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3739926d3a85", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "A general noticed one of his soldiers behaving oddly. The soldier would pick up any piece of paper he found, frown and say, \"That's not it\" and put it down again. This went on for some time, until the general arranged to have the soldier psychologically tested. The psychologist concluded that the soldier was deranged, and wrote out his discharge from the army. The soldier picked it up, smiled and said, \"That's it.\"", "index": 7, "poolNo": 7.636745483184207e-05, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7635981808635888, "textFts": "'armi':64 'arrang':42 'behav':8 'conclud':51 'derang':56 'discharg':61 'found':20 'frown':21 'general':2,41 'notic':3 'odd':9 'one':4 'paper':18 'pick':13,67 'piec':16 'psycholog':47 'psychologist':50 'put':29 'said':72 'say':23 'smile':70 'soldier':7,11,46,54,66 'test':48 'time':38 'went':34 'would':12 'wrote':58", "contractId": "bH6zPpf5uJfKTBKWycEB", "createdTime": 1646004794458, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.519", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646203628000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007636363636363638, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0709e740a965", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Generally, the phrases \"I'm sorry\" and \"I apologise\" are used synonymously...\nBut not at a funeral.", "index": 8, "poolNo": 7.636745483184207e-05, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7635981808635888, "textFts": "'apologis':9 'funer':17 'general':1 'm':5 'phrase':3 'sorri':6 'synonym':12 'use':11", "contractId": "bH6zPpf5uJfKTBKWycEB", "createdTime": 1646004864420, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.514", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646203628000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007636363636363638, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "476d2ceeba83", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "I can't write jokes, but a friend of mine gave me a foolproof formula. He said \"Start with a natural set-up, lead the audience in one direction, then hit them with a punch line they weren't expecting.\"\nSo here goes:\n\nWalk forwards.\n\nTurn left.\n\nPasteurization.", "index": 9, "poolNo": 7.636745483184207e-05, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7635981808635888, "textFts": "'audienc':27 'direct':30 'expect':41 'foolproof':14 'formula':15 'forward':46 'friend':8 'gave':11 'goe':44 'hit':32 'joke':5 'lead':25 'left':48 'line':37 'mine':10 'natur':21 'one':29 'pasteur':49 'punch':36 'said':17 'set':23 'set-up':22 'start':18 'turn':47 'walk':45 'weren':39 'write':4", "contractId": "bH6zPpf5uJfKTBKWycEB", "createdTime": 1646005354467, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.514", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646203628000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007636363636363638, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "77b39e6faeeb", "prob": 0.6030238987380382, "text": "Two muffins are baking in an oven. One muffin says to the other muffin, ‘It's getting hot in here, huh?' The other muffin says, ‘Aagh A talking muffin!", "index": 10, "poolNo": 37.28721575881016, "userId": "eVvEQtyZdLUmKGrun3MtXtkCNsu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.54651228553761, "textFts": "'aagh':26 'bake':4 'get':17 'hot':18 'huh':21 'muffin':2,9,14,24,29 'one':8 'oven':7 'say':10,25 'talk':28 'two':1", "contractId": "bH6zPpf5uJfKTBKWycEB", "createdTime": 1646130153691, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.515", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646203628000, "totalLiquidity": 30.25344773273164, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1646145093458 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.34165052823888437 | PrwDu2isJrJDbClwAGp5 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.34165052823888437 | will-grixis-shadow-be-the-most-repr | 235.85152316295884 | {"NO": 149.14847683704116, "YES": 75} | Will Grixis Shadow be the most represented deck in top thirty two of the Modern Super Qualifier on Sunday? | 1645974000000 | EIOKALSntrWw62Gd1ufAwIlpSjo2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 150, "YES": 75} | 0 | 4.816074865070793 | True | play | YES | public | 1645551071757 | andrei klepatch | Resolves Yes if MTGGoldfish identifies Grixis Shadow/"Grixis Death's Shadow" as the most prevalent archetype in top thirty two of the Modern Super Qualifier event on 2022-02-27.
Market closes at start of event. Market resolved after results are published.
Feb 28, 1:16pm: Resolving YES on the basis of https://www.mtggoldfish.com/tournament/modern-super-qualifier-12392317#paper. Goldfish identifies six copies of "G" (of which three are Tron and three are Amulet), five copies of "WURG" (of which one is Creativity, one is Saheeli Combo, and three are traditional 4C), and five copies of "UBR" (all of which are Grixis Shadow). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 181.8720555426984, "YES": 131.01733999357828} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1646072377816 | 100 | andreiklepatch | 1645551071757 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgHRhRjIT-07p__V9cIjlWycFHjaJpNB9BgrzYz=s96-c | 7 | 1715658125848 | 0 | 1 | 0.34165052823888437 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1713193685616429 | p2nCzs5kfPvMwgcHpnaB | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1713193685616429 | will-the-sp-500-move-at-least-2-in | 10563.142346342232 | {"NO": 2776.1166097134465, "YES": 1162.7410439443247} | Will the S&P 500 move at least 2% in either direction on February 23rd, 2022? | 1645626600000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2919, "YES": 1242} | 0 | 4.627733064591014 | True | play | NO | public | 1645551134723 | Athena | This market resolves to ‘YES’ if the S&P 500 has increased or decreased by 2% or more from February 22nd’s closing price at 4 PM EST on February 23rd. I will check the price using the Webull stock app.
Close date updated to 2022-02-23 9:30 am
Feb 22, 3:59pm: Will extend the closing time into market hours (3pm ET at the latest) if people would prefer that. Let me know in the comments! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3585.6177618685815, "YES": 1630.3229003075573} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1645650621198 | 100 | Athena | 1645551134723 | 0 | 34 | 1715658697154 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529575652}] | ["economics-default"] | 1645566408649 | 0.1713193685616429 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4648481441192971 | IWmJ462g0NmF857hkpjV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4648481441192971 | this-market-will-resolve-to-whateve-413d38cb2522 | 68.00000000000001 | {"NO": 8.000000000000004, "YES": 7.999999999999991} | This market will resolve to whatever share the person who bets the greatest amount in the linked market ends up buying. | 1646197140000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 8, "YES": 8} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1645556440280 | Garrett Baker | If this person ends up betting anonymously, it is impossible to tell if two bets were actually the same, so if the text says "x users spent M$y on YES/NO", then I will use the number y/x. If the person who bet the greatest amount bet equal amounts for YES and NO, then, in honor of Twosday, if the market volume is an even number, this will resolve YES, and otherwise it will resolve NO.
https://manifold.markets/GarrettBaker/this-question-will-resolve-based-on | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 11.705383398248857, "YES": 10.9094454717002} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 100 | GarrettBaker | 1701237378214 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 5 | 1650313888548 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779615248}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1701237377598 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5680427859143398 | PU4BIiDuLDaPXMAHcT2g | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5680427859143398 | this-question-will-resolve-based-on | 871.293948071147 | {"NO": 33.70605192885307, "YES": 1} | This question will resolve based on the number of votes for the market linked below | 1646197140000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6, "YES": 7} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1645556441275 | Garrett Baker | You vote for whichever share you buy. If you vote for YES and NO, then I will use your most recent non-anonymous vote. Also, anonymous votes count, with all the gaming strategies that entails. If I see "y people bought M$xxx YES" or something similar, that counts as a vote for YES.
If YES gets more votes than NO, then this question resolves YES. If NO gets more votes than YES, then this question resolves NO. If YES has the same number of votes as NO, then, in honor of Twosday, if the market volume is an even number, this will resolve YES, and otherwise it will resolve NO.
https://manifold.markets/GarrettBaker/this-market-will-resolve-to-whateve-413d38cb2522 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8.544705992601507, "YES": 9.798673405109495} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 100 | GarrettBaker | 1703888100970 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 5 | 1650314571068 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779611507}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1703888100491 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9653993126572837 | beM0oj6uEAaxbPaKo9O0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9653993126572837 | if-i-publish-a-lesswrong-post-criti | 1695.6880968317323 | {"NO": 143.58878630566187, "YES": 670.7231168626058} | If I publish a LessWrong post critiquing part of Ajeya Cotra's draft report on AI timelines, will it receive over 50 karma within 72 hours? | 1646110800000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 115, "YES": 677} | 0 | 4.6746751832405895 | True | play | YES | public | 1645558593723 | Matthew Barnett | I intend to soon publish a critique of one part of Ajeya Cotra's draft report on AI timelines, which can be found here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines
**Content of the post**
My critique will focus on the fact that she assumes that hardware progress in the future will resemble hardware progress in the past; more precisely, she assumes that price-performance for GPUs will cut in half roughly every 2.5 years over the next 50 years. I think that price-performance trends are already fairly close to saturating; or at the least, we should expect future progress in the medium-term to be slower than what we observed in the past. This adjustment implies correspondingly longer and more uncertain AI timelines than her implicit bottom line. It also makes her analysis less informative, since a soft assumption of her report is that, fundamentally, "progress in hardware drives progress in AI"; but it seems we're entering an era in which that's no longer as true as it was before.
**Resolution criteria**
This question resolves to YES if AT ANY POINT within 72 hours of posting this critique, it receives more than 50 karma on LessWrong. This question resolves to NO otherwise.
Karma is not equivalent to votes. Users differ in the number of karma they provide a post, through their votes. Strong upvotes also convey more karma than weak upvotes. If I do not post this critique to LessWrong before March 1st, then this question resolves to N/A.
Note: This question will not resolve to NO simply because people coordinate to strong downvote me at the 72 hour mark. Recall: the post must simply exceed 50 karma at any point *prior* to 72 hours after posting for this to resolve YES. If the karma later falls below this threshold, it will still resolve to YES.
Feb 22, 2:41pm: My LessWrong profile can be found here: https://www.lesswrong.com/users/matthew-barnett | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 151.47246029676023, "YES": 800.1009923990715} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645917395056 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1645558593723 | 0 | 15 | 1715658406414 | 0 | 1645911503584 | 0.9653993126572837 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.963070906332129 | MbWFhJ52yK2Z0zXO5Gf9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.963070906332129 | will-the-majority-of-pallies-partic | 396 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 345} | Will the majority of pallies participate in this market by March 1? | 1646121540000 | RvlSrOeFijfIJgYfQpSZVzTw61W2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 345} | 0 | 4.7338835936571435 | True | play | YES | public | 1645560739751 | lippy | This market resolves to "YES" if 3 or more pallies participate buy into this market during the month of Feb. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 76.09929040733559, "YES": 388.62023879425016} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646511807649 | 100 | lippy | 1645560739751 | 0 | 4 | 1715658025765 | 0 | 1 | 1646115520372 | 0.963070906332129 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9591778425239554 | u33yZz0np8MNn3feVl2J | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9591778425239554 | test-02882f3ceba7 | 111.8622277472958 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 53.13777225270419} | test | 1645562100000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 55} | 0 | 5.2317527591948645 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645561600954 | Predictor 🔥 | test
Close date updated to 2022-02-22 3:35 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 57.70707788956054} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645561985659 | 100 | Predictor | 1645561600954 | 0 | 1 | 1715658825363 | 0 | 0.9591778425239554 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.006149175898616676 | 1kw5oajkv3sxhrRFgR9C | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.006149175898616676 | will-shares-of-tesla-close-at-or-ab | 10629.355239989836 | {"NO": 3557.93715531226, "YES": 120.7076046979042} | Will shares of Tesla close at or above $850 on February 23rd, 2022? | 1645646400000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3576, "YES": 83} | 0 | 4.62861911070177 | True | play | NO | public | 1645562949117 | Athena | This market resolves to 'YES' if shares of Tesla stock ($TSLA, listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange) close at or above a price of $850 each at 4:00 PM ET on February 23rd, 2022 according to the Webull stock app.
Close date updated to 2022-02-23 3:00 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-23 2:00 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-23 10:00 am
Close date updated to 2022-02-23 3:00 pm
Feb 22, 3:58pm: Trying to fix the close time, I think it is just displaying wrong. It should be 3pm EST. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3667.317999134908, "YES": 288.46719200265096} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645650658973 | 100 | Athena | 1645562949117 | 0 | 13 | 1715656900941 | 0 | 1 | 1645633152989 | 0.006149175898616676 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7781102837196271 | 3JuFiwtjn97HPTQD6pp8 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7781102837196271 | will-sp500-get-into-the-correction | 289 | {"NO": 47.400000000000006, "YES": 201.6} | Will SP500 get into the correction territory until March 2022 (-10% off highs)? | 1646168400000 | D3k0mi76wPdh7kx3iwJxjyTco5C2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 47.400000000000006, "YES": 201.6} | 0 | 4.797775350089779 | True | play | YES | public | 1645564350233 | Robertas Strumila | This market resolves to yes if on March 1 price of SP500 will be lower than 4287 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 117.29234757817751, "YES": 219.64517568250847} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1645649465904 | 100 | RobertasStrumila | 1645564350233 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjnawp3zTKrIv6o3ye4-t5nQVqUKTQOGjGVk1j2xiY=s96-c | 7 | 1715656942698 | 0 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529563928}] | ["economics-default"] | 1645642573932 | 0.7781102837196271 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19561735599735353 | U5rW8rhQ0Ubz4WgkHRhk | {"NO": 766.3341884957825, "YES": 2109.1458028969296} | 0.08118647249458827 | will-andrew-yang-run-for-president | 4782.025043774506 | {"NO": 125.61259786020915, "YES": 99.61212488198908} | Will Andrew Yang run for President in 2024? | 1730851200000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 137.5, "YES": 100.5} | 0 | 9.890476547242294 | False | basic | public | 1645567467785 | Athena | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to 'YES' if Andrew Yang runs for President in the 2024 general US Presidential election or in the primaries of any party.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "EDIT: A write-in candidacy would count. The question will resolve when polls close on November 5, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 183.8212945834448, "YES": 130.13976272612442} | {"creatorFee": 1.623055564720998, "platformFee": 0.03126373622264436, "liquidityFee": 0.18758241733586617} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1000 | Athena | 1711829347670 | 0 | 2 | 51 | 1650314608775 | 0 | 33 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe"}, {"name": "2024", "slug": "2024-3d9da60b52f8", "groupId": "113eb49d-bb7b-428e-a89c-61ea2078317f"}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL"}, {"name": "2024 US Election", "slug": "2024-us-election", "groupId": "ys6IcrjWOTkhcjR3JLFk"}, {"name": "United States", "slug": "united-states", "groupId": "5ba769e7-dd37-49d0-bdf2-9f1803f6872e"}] | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "world-default", "2024-3d9da60b52f8", "geopolitics", "2024-us-election", "united-states"] | 1711829344230 | 1648041120050 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26255458579661084 | pXUTriOJT55KDz6lclZN | {"NO": 63.755003867020704, "YES": 395.7555701377388} | 0.05424451585757932 | will-we-beeminder-deem-it-prudent-t | 2581.4229141158066 | {"NO": 1148.9844062073535, "YES": 729} | Will we (Beeminder) deem it prudent to make it harder to turn No-Excuses Mode back off after you opt in to it? | 1652307396778 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1158, "YES": 729} | 0 | 3.8983626629050274 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645568557913 | Daniel Reeves | So far we've just made it show in the interface and in the legit check / derailment notification emails how long you've had No-Excuses Mode turned on or when you last turned it off. Presumably that adds a bit of disincentivizing shame to the loophole of quickly turning it back off when you're about to derail. This is a prediction about whether that will suffice.
Background: https://blog.beeminder.com/noexcuses/
To make it slightly less subjective, let's factor out development cost. We'll call it "prudent" if, in the Platonic ideal of Beeminder (still per our opinion), it'd be harder opt back out of No-Excuses Mode than it currently is, even if it's too small a problem in practice for us to deem it worth implementing that.
Close date updated to 2022-05-18 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1609.9008788382362, "YES": 966.9789792149936} | {"creatorFee": 1.8522921144154534, "platformFee": 0.34085809747328755, "liquidityFee": 1.4665791735669098} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1652307396778 | 101.4665791735669 | dreev | 1652295693255 | 0 | 18 | 1650314766040 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Beeminder", "slug": "beeminder", "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "groupId": "TBLLIYRPP9YImVXqKhri", "createdTime": 1664383000381}] | ["beeminder"] | 1651676510360 | 1652295691096 | 0.05424451585757932 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9859234337051549 | 8wNL8iahbCh7FSpDg4lz | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9859234337051549 | will-at-least-10-users-invest-in-th | 1731.673596363311 | {"NO": 30.87589758415305, "YES": 1679.450506052536} | Will at least 10 users invest in this market by the end of the month | 1646110800000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 30, "YES": 1680} | 0 | 4.64392721585717 | True | play | YES | public | 1645568739789 | Athena | This market resolves to 'YES' if 10 or more users have traded in this market AND commented by the end of February 2022 Eastern Time. Users MUST comment to be counted. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 142.1279611474863, "YES": 1704.411766648739} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1645670752661 | 100 | Athena | 1645568739789 | 0 | 18 | 1715657658427 | 0 | 1645670634408 | 0.9859234337051549 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ZmIiPUl8difcWE6N9CCQ | which-book-is-the-most-like-harry-p | 1298.779299813115 | Which book is the most like Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality? | 1646175540000 | iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.703093827681551 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645568959286 | Mr Stone | I will use the resolution option PROB for this question.
Feb 22, 11:29pm: Use your own interpretation for what the word 'like' means in the sentence. It could be the writing style, the subject, the fanbase, ...
Feb 25, 12:18am: Well, I don't think 60% of the reward should go to a joke. 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nvuXwijtWuXfOAbEHV36 | what-number-am-i-thinking-of | 16 | What number am I thinking of? | 1656647940000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.224558429275356 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645570519867 | Charles Vorbach | Don't bet on this, you'll lose M$. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1691606840343 | 300 | CharlesVorbach | 1645570519867 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a94daced13fe", "prob": 0.6942444444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 55.25104016589547, "userId": "yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 24.33337798542159, "textFts": "", "contractId": "nvuXwijtWuXfOAbEHV36", "createdTime": 1645570520025, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:21.034", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1691606840000, "totalLiquidity": 36.66666666666667, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "91fdebf26f03", "prob": 0.14583333333333334, "text": "Null Set", "index": 1, "poolNo": 7.230946367236703, "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.35268586524354, "textFts": "'null':1 'set':2", "contractId": "nvuXwijtWuXfOAbEHV36", "createdTime": 1645572607898, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:21.035", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1691606840000, "totalLiquidity": 17.5, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "12fa40549436", "prob": 0.1597222222222222, "text": "42", "index": 2, "poolNo": 8.356373108802465, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 43.961788963699924, "textFts": "'42':1", "contractId": "nvuXwijtWuXfOAbEHV36", "createdTime": 1645575189944, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:21.073", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1691606840000, "totalLiquidity": 19.166666666666664, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "db27b0b040b5", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "0x231Bc7b38a91d9d28d89c306DfC66cf3529FAa98 ", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.0001200060004500375, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.199939998499925, "textFts": "'0x231bc7b38a91d9d28d89c306dfc66cf3529faa98':1", "contractId": "nvuXwijtWuXfOAbEHV36", "createdTime": 1645605433863, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:21.074", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1691606840000, "totalLiquidity": 0.012, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "95792cb94971", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Eleventy six", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.0001200060004500375, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.199939998499925, "textFts": "'eleventi':1 'six':2", "contractId": "nvuXwijtWuXfOAbEHV36", "createdTime": 1645897355552, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:21.073", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1691606840000, "totalLiquidity": 0.012, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 5 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7441023607097166 | PfIb8hulLg6fxTPz7Ai4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7441023607097166 | meh | 83.81647683840902 | {"NO": 25.129284763502156, "YES": 41.05423839808883} | Meh | 1646200740000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 26, "YES": 42} | 0 | 5.17462153717649 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645573468367 | Patrick Delaney | Just meh. Comment whatever you're feeling and we'll figure out something by consensus.
Feb 23, 7:19am: Currently we have a consensus at N/A with an, "I feel ya," and a, "hell no," as well as an ask to resolve at N/A. Should I resolve this market now? Ehh, I dunno.
Feb 24, 10:27am: We've got a meh, a N/A, a hell yes canceling out a hell no, but no bleh yet.
Mar 2, 7:25am: I was going to do Yes but the person who said yes hundreds of time made me feel much more neutral about it so I did N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 33.48031874439215, "YES": 57.091675075277614} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646227580660 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645573468367 | 0 | 10 | 1715658120313 | 0 | 1 | 1646182750750 | 0.7441023607097166 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09259423867215369 | 5Yqd2nJbr58CW2ZpXg2F | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.09259423867215369 | will-1-test-positive-for-covid-by-2 | 92 | {"NO": 75, "YES": 15} | Will [1] test positive for Covid by 2/27/2022? | 1646207940000 | UC4813YJL9am8VoQE1BO8BTZQo53 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 75, "YES": 15} | 0 | 8.249734339450752 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645573674342 | Raj Thimmiah | [1] is hashed to fabcad3f11442896070a804f5a6fa6c929d6f60bf17aba0c218f75dfb94c8bee
Feb 22, 3:47pm: [1] had contact with someone on Saturday who tested positive for Covid on Tuesday but negative Saturday. They have had 2 shots + booster. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 85.73301581479564, "YES": 27.38667559781581} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1697240590293 | 100 | raj | 1697240636500 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giz1IaNINtDyr-o_uJ8uDu_aw4N5PoZpto97YE7szI=s96-c | 4 | 1650313801396 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779618980}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1697240635842 | 0.09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08938218316517436 | eCItjOsIjASyr2v3jxir | {"NO": 96.72775104058037, "YES": 190.782278403982} | 0 | will-keltham-and-merrin-explicitly | 645.90960434167 | {"NO": 142.93141665127885, "YES": 20.500000000000014} | Will Keltham and Merrin explicitly have a Friendship or Romance subplot by e.o. June 2022? | 1655301540000 | Y9bXf0FFTNbX70zcDR5FxVvuxOu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 143.5, "YES": 20.5} | 0 | 8.405336385534595 | True | play | NO | public | 1645577250369 | openendings | Resolves YES if, by end of 30 June 2022 PST, a dath ilani Keltham and dath ilani Merrin, played by larwain and swimmer963 ("Authors") respectively, interact directly in the same Glowfic Constellation thread in a manner that includes or plausibly sets up Romance/Friendship Tropes.
Positive examples include:
- Earth romance/friendship tropes, including, without limitation, tropes regarding flirting, *aroace* pairbonding, crushing, BFFs, etc.
- any tropes Authors explicitly describe as [dath ilani] romance/friendship tropes.
(This market resolves to YES if I am convinced by a good-faith argument that the result was YES in spirit. This market resolves N/A if there are clear good-faith arguments in both direction.) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 155.92983618386577, "YES": 48.94937180546856} | {"creatorFee": 1.3894170028801647, "platformFee": 0.23156950048002745, "liquidityFee": 1.3894170028801647} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1661742301153 | 101.38941700288018 | openendings | 1656570711069 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhoNzKYE7KlQxoalIP9fY8bmdUt6928aExKL7UI=s96-c | 20 | 1650314688290 | 0 | 1 | 21 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "userId": "tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1662037841466}] | ["glowfic"] | 1655285122862 | 1656570706671 | 0.047406249944098505 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
WoLNu6QvBbV2p9CXMOga | who-will-win-washington-dcs-ward-1 | 37 | Who will win Washington, DC's Ward 1 Democratic primary election in 2022? | 1655870340000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.462418377228464 | True | play | 78e9dd21819c | public | 1645579365818 | David Glidden | Context: https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/12/02/sabel-harris-runs-ward-1-dc/ | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.44000000000000017, "platformFee": 0.11000000000000004, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1655894657474 | 260 | dglid | 1645579365818 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "edcc52a1c022", "prob": 0.07304601899196493, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.5542488349532486, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 45.10341771555674, "textFts": "", "contractId": "WoLNu6QvBbV2p9CXMOga", "createdTime": 1645579366236, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:34.669", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655894657000, "totalLiquidity": 12.661309958607255, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "78e9dd21819c", "prob": 0.9101533966398831, "text": "Brianne Nadeau", "index": 1, "poolNo": 49.56672417299614, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.893023333289344, "textFts": "'briann':1 'nadeau':2", "contractId": "WoLNu6QvBbV2p9CXMOga", "createdTime": 1645579405907, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:34.667", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655894657000, "totalLiquidity": 15.573411249086922, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "eef9a2f7b8cf", "prob": 0.01680058436815193, "text": "Sabel Harris", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.38066930996601916, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.277430052793996, "textFts": "'harri':2 'sabel':1", "contractId": "WoLNu6QvBbV2p9CXMOga", "createdTime": 1645579421965, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:34.669", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655894657000, "totalLiquidity": 2.912101290479668, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529490781}] | ["politics-default"] | {"78e9dd21819c": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.019101602194027498 | TUPpN3AGVmCaLyBsw6Gv | {"NO": 100.43900326177075, "YES": 79.8562583938795} | 0 | will-the-international-congress-of | 1010.0859048626676 | {"NO": 393.05783674345287, "YES": 35} | Will the International Congress of Mathematicians 2022 be held in St. Petersburg? | 1658116474050 | 0tNRj1oWkFZseNi7CTRKC8biWFT2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 401, "YES": 35} | 0 | 9.830420027049858 | True | play | NO | public | 1645583734676 | Chan Bae | This market resolves to 'Yes' if the ICM is held within the year at St. Petersburg. It resolves to 'No' if the ICM is held somewhere else, cancelled, or delayed past the end of 2022.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 423.95081992350003, "YES": 59.161389438974474} | {"creatorFee": 0.10406809681404866, "platformFee": 0.026017024203512165, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1658116474050 | 100 | ChanBae | 1658110208348 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghfy1G7G5GLx2lohswuOz-mC_1EomRs9Q63-zKVZA=s96-c | 14 | 1650314605126 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529488139}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529528710}] | ["politics-default", "science-default"] | 1657041411955 | 1658110214458 | 0.023907286084758516 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry | what-book-should-i-read-630b68d6de33 | 822.8690393126732 | What book should I read? | 1647061140000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.692006850078496 | True | play | cf37a762f7ce | public | 1645584246296 | Charles Vorbach | I'll choose the answer whose recommendation I choose to read. It might be fiction or nonfiction (though I don't read a lot of nonfiction).
I'm a big fan of weird, intricate, and humorous works which are not precious with their protagonists.
I've read and enjoyed the following,
- Anything by J.R.R Tolkien
- Anything by Terry Pratchett
- Johnathan Strange and Mr. Norrell
- Tom Clancy novels
- Bill Bryson works
- In the Name of Rose
- Kill Six Billion Demons
- Unsong
- Anything by Douglas Adams
- Many things by Diana Wynne Jones
- Practical Guide to Evil
- The Screwtape Letters
- Watership Down
- Animal Farm
- Anything by Mark Twain (except Pudd'nhead Wilson)
I'm lukewarm on,
- Things by Neil Gaiman
- Sabriel
- Foucault's Pendulum
- Pillars of the Earth
- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality
- Stand Still Stay Silent
- Game of Thrones
- Circe
- Lies of Locke Lamora
- Dune
- Agatha Christie's works
- Ray Bradbury's works
- Life of Pi
- Witcher books
- Wedgwood's The Thirty Years War
I disliked,
- Most Patrick Rothfuss's works
- Most Brandon Sanderson works
- Worm
- The Welcome Inn
- The Black Company books
- Ender's Game
- Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
- Catch-22
- Gideon the Ninth
Things I'm already considering (but feel free to suggest),
- Ladies of Grace Adieu
- Mother of Learning
- Man's Search for Meaning
- First of the Dark Tower books
- Snow Crash
- Something by Lord Dunsany
- Soldiers & Silver: Mobilizing Resources in the Age of Roman Conquest
Mar 11, 11:32pm: @M I'll resolve at midnight with the book I choose to read.
Mar 12, 7:43pm: Thanks for all the amazing suggestions! | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647132228366 | 1179.9999999999998 | CharlesVorbach | 1645584246297 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 1 | 22 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "eaf48bdb1c6c", "prob": 0.23030347564365752, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.003239429364664, "userId": "yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 26.747601420939585, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry", "createdTime": 1645584246469, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.242", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647132228000, "totalLiquidity": 14.63104433500883, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1c1dfa37c3bf", "prob": 0.10958165965545494, "text": "Project Hail Mary", "index": 1, "poolNo": 11.6683794147958, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 94.81275485058535, "textFts": "'hail':2 'mari':3 'project':1", "contractId": "8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry", "createdTime": 1645585668816, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.236", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647132228000, "totalLiquidity": 33.261256695420435, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2b933bbaf462", "prob": 0.00393065441438325, "text": "The Vorkosigan Saga (book 1, Shards of Honor)", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.0255632608807118, "userId": "nUekmymfGaSbIQK89LsGt8DZQoy2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.47800031549716, "textFts": "'1':5 'book':4 'honor':8 'saga':3 'shard':6 'vorkosigan':2", "contractId": "8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry", "createdTime": 1645587063320, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.236", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647132228000, "totalLiquidity": 0.4069383393714424, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f30e838900b3", "prob": 0.018948999953856873, "text": "Anyone by Charles Soule", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.2726449111628712, "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.115708660360418, "textFts": "'anyon':1 'charl':3 'soul':4", "contractId": "8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry", "createdTime": 1645591744822, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.242", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647132228000, "totalLiquidity": 1.961778818752241, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8d42fcabbe51", "prob": 0.01996745310170327, "text": "Camp So-and-So by Mary McCoy", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.29507166453726297, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.482559865850188, "textFts": "'camp':1 'mari':7 'mccoy':8 'so-and-so':2", "contractId": "8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry", "createdTime": 1645616823924, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.244", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647132228000, "totalLiquidity": 2.0672186740586915, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cf37a762f7ce", "prob": 0.03901172272765878, "text": "Ted Chiang - Stories of your life and other stories", "index": 5, "poolNo": 2.700210203576054, "userId": "RkgxY86BkXapNguatNnE45ZaxQG3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 66.51514392026638, "textFts": "'chiang':2 'life':6 'stori':3,9 'ted':1", "contractId": "8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry", "createdTime": 1645618851753, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.23", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647132228000, "totalLiquidity": 13.401674160560427, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "84c9318d7896", "prob": 0.18405558579485656, "text": "There Is No Antimemetics Division", "index": 6, "poolNo": 26.533466740711766, "userId": "nsOLL5tvd6Wn5UBR5Arb0g85Tep2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 117.62660656608404, "textFts": "'antimemet':4 'divis':5", "contractId": "8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry", "createdTime": 1645644918106, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.236", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647132228000, "totalLiquidity": 55.86628368832116, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f376f571108c", "prob": 0.04258608967787367, "text": "Prince of Nothing Trilogy", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.9298556330034383, "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.90487115306635, "textFts": "'noth':3 'princ':1 'trilog':4", "contractId": "8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry", "createdTime": 1645656534910, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.247", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647132228000, "totalLiquidity": 4.408912813709274, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c0942b6e57a8", "prob": 0.039008670443695034, "text": "Off to Be the Wizard - Scott Meyer", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.8136651855323525, "userId": "y8JOgKkc3Rhiw5jiphMhJbtD5az2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.04490744146332, "textFts": "'meyer':7 'scott':6 'wizard':5", "contractId": "8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry", "createdTime": 1645670557954, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.244", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647132228000, "totalLiquidity": 4.0385447047590155, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b2cba70252c1", "prob": 0.00438116741904012, "text": "Piranesi - Susanna Clarke", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.030088599181354484, "userId": "y8JOgKkc3Rhiw5jiphMhJbtD5az2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.837624113780128, "textFts": "'clark':3 'piranesi':1 'susanna':2", "contractId": "8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry", "createdTime": 1645671570090, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.253", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647132228000, "totalLiquidity": 0.45357968573591834, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0ecdaef92437", "prob": 0.00438116741904012, "text": "The Stand - Stephen King", "index": 10, "poolNo": 0.030088599181354484, "userId": "y8JOgKkc3Rhiw5jiphMhJbtD5az2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.837624113780128, "textFts": "'king':4 'stand':2 'stephen':3", "contractId": "8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry", "createdTime": 1645672096403, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.236", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647132228000, "totalLiquidity": 0.45357968573591834, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "76a2279548e0", "prob": 0.12659793898446212, "text": "Hyperion - Dan Simmons", "index": 11, "poolNo": 4.989954589092763, "userId": "y8JOgKkc3Rhiw5jiphMhJbtD5az2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 34.42581022604535, "textFts": "'dan':2 'hyperion':1 'simmon':3", "contractId": "8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry", "createdTime": 1645672418804, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.252", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647132228000, "totalLiquidity": 13.106610153685489, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9d9c0bcbe77d", "prob": 0.009443009554982604, "text": "The Gunslinger (first of the Dark Tower books)", "index": 12, "poolNo": 0.058573441815125554, "userId": "QPw915xrcfcPZ6Q14V5J3I3twP33", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.144262791069896, "textFts": "'book':8 'dark':6 'first':3 'gunsling':2 'tower':7", "contractId": "8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry", "createdTime": 1645809018021, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.208", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647132228000, "totalLiquidity": 0.5999088423165418, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "09d02fc5dcec", "prob": 0.08350523907886934, "text": "Children of Time", "index": 13, "poolNo": 4.626060039140279, "userId": "V5LZY7JHCXX6hObOXWE9XBEunRH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50.77238070744619, "textFts": "'children':1 'time':3", "contractId": "8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry", "createdTime": 1646205588887, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.21", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647132228000, "totalLiquidity": 15.32566740741602, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "655ca9e2218f", "prob": 0.0264845955324126, "text": "Cryptonomicon by Neal Stephenson", "index": 14, "poolNo": 0.45225393025933075, "userId": "uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.623858472735446, "textFts": "'cryptonomicon':1 'neal':3 'stephenson':4", "contractId": "8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry", "createdTime": 1646238514567, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.209", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647132228000, "totalLiquidity": 2.741934596296834, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2529ca934af5", "prob": 0.04058184919304569, "text": "The Martian", "index": 15, "poolNo": 0.5302352764166472, "userId": "AQ6kYkgmzRUh393IzqZWwh9YCs03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.535588163376508, "textFts": "'martian':2", "contractId": "8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry", "createdTime": 1646422430439, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.208", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647132228000, "totalLiquidity": 2.5781410075581968, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "89e457932229", "prob": 0.017230721405007463, "text": "Man's Search for Meaning - Viktor Frankl", "index": 16, "poolNo": 0.2362072107870605, "userId": "y8JOgKkc3Rhiw5jiphMhJbtD5az2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.472285035998132, "textFts": "'frankl':7 'man':1 'mean':5 'search':3 'viktor':6", "contractId": "8pWlDQ8t34LqyUfJh1Ry", "createdTime": 1646885112802, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:45.21", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647132228000, "totalLiquidity": 1.783886451341949, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | [{"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1659014622604}, {"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1659016346893}] | ["recommendations", "books"] | 1647050165999 | {"cf37a762f7ce": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9794838173463356 | AMvoqcetGn3ZH6JNbvQ3 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9794838173463356 | will-this-market-have-m20000-invest | 62195.20108080479 | {"NO": 890.913109256982, "YES": 20759.88580993823} | Will this market have M$20,000 invested by March 11th? | 1647061140000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 852, "YES": 21004} | 0 | 4.617427184600796 | True | play | YES | public | 1645584746792 | Charles Vorbach | Judged by the size of pool, will this market have a total of M$ 20,000 invested in it by 11:59 pm EST on March 11th?
The market will stay open until March 11th. #meta #shortterm #fun
Feb 23, 10:28am: This market will not resolve until it closes. I'll resolve based on the pool size at close since that is simplest to determine. So if it is over or equal to $20,000 at close then the market will resolve to YES. If it is below $20,000 at close, then it will resolve to NO.
Close date updated to 2022-03-11 11:59 pm
Feb 23, 10:45am: @LeonardoTaglialegne Thanks! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3101.146085851821, "YES": 21427.553058975944} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647132185826 | 100 | CharlesVorbach | 1645584746792 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 65 | 1715657703298 | 0 | 1 | 1647047144534 | 0.9794838173463356 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.34771881808421684 | mOiczhf0vuy65qjBGSS0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.34771881808421684 | will-lee-jaemyung-win-the-2022-kore | 558.8919645919755 | {"NO": 226.1080354080246, "YES": 145} | Will Lee Jae-Myung win the 2022 Korean Presidential Election? | 1646778540000 | 0tNRj1oWkFZseNi7CTRKC8biWFT2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 225, "YES": 145} | 0 | 4.741356623551862 | True | play | NO | public | 1645585855075 | Chan Bae | This market resolves to 'Yes' if Lee Jae-Myung wins the 2022 Korean Presidential Election. In all other scenarios, this market resolves to 'No'.
Close date updated to 2022-03-08 2:29 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 299.72222848749965, "YES": 218.8344166532346} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937} | 0 | 1646852866254 | 100 | ChanBae | 1645585855075 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghfy1G7G5GLx2lohswuOz-mC_1EomRs9Q63-zKVZA=s96-c | 5 | 1715658643212 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529504032}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.34771881808421684 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21489980703216674 | uiBiW4GYLEcf1LHLOLnP | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.21489980703216674 | will-the-sp-500-close-updown-1-on-f | 9781.248130629463 | {"NO": 3223.8584988431367, "YES": 2370.8933705274003} | Will the S&P 500 close up/down 1%+ on February 24th, 2022? | 1645732800000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3188.5, "YES": 2396.5} | 0 | 4.624016972381702 | True | play | YES | public | 1645587200327 | Athena | This market resolves to ‘YES’ if the S&P 500 has increased or decreased by 1% or more from February 23rd’s closing price at 4 PM EST on February 24th. I will check the price using the Webull stock app.
Close date updated to 2022-02-24 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-24 9:30 am
Close date updated to 2022-02-24 3:00 pm
Feb 24, 3:21pm: +0.67%...
Feb 24, 4:00pm: Closes up 1.56%. Never underestimate power hour :) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 4957.2800008197155, "YES": 2593.5756520299783} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645736441788 | 100 | Athena | 1645587200327 | 0 | 23 | 1715658835876 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529577020}] | ["economics-default"] | 1645684391108 | 0.21489980703216674 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5867693470049301 | bQConVUN5TpveIRMsogM | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5867693470049301 | test-market-do-not-bet | 11 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 6} | Test market, do not bet! | 1646197140000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 6} | 0 | 6.2917399635737015 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645588605892 | Jenny | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 8.42686184175343} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645590611216 | 100 | Jenny | 1645588605892 | 0 | 2 | 1715658394545 | 0 | 0.5867693470049301 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7937669457680355 | nGki83mjEcO7C2kLZpFq | {"NO": 83.30217459501566, "YES": 108.0791288034147} | 0.7478906885420146 | conditional-on-winning-the-primary | 633.7927241683918 | {"NO": 89, "YES": 341.85705697922896} | Conditional on winning the primary, will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th District (in 2022)? | 1652993476369 | BM7WDql3V0fOWBtlc2s4ITzUPZ32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 89, "YES": 351} | 0 | 4.1698521551238965 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645588771007 | Eli Tyre | This guy: https://www.carrickflynnfororegon.com/
See also, these markets:
* https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-carrick-flynn-win-the-general
* https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-carrick-flynn-win-the-democrat | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 192.5773310773619, "YES": 385.4252674890901} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1652993476369 | 101.3349370681024 | EliTyre | 1652464351281 | 0 | 7 | 1650314752165 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529504332}] | ["politics-default"] | 1652464349889 | 0.7478906885420146 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.017640122698118915 | aU4aRrGGs2tlflO2aZ5N | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.017640122698118915 | will-i-work-for-at-least-8-hours-on | 320 | {"NO": 109, "YES": 11} | Will I work for at least 8 hours on February 23, 2022? | 1645678740000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 109, "YES": 11} | 0 | 4.962203626998808 | True | play | NO | public | 1645589153940 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if I log at least 8 hours of my time labeled "work" on February 23, 2022 Eastern Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 118.93787454171189, "YES": 15.938067652635937} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645666327787 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1645589153940 | 0 | 7 | 1715658372515 | 0 | 1645595997498 | 0.017640122698118915 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5057984398500525 | cA5GJjQ0CY2LMxYwSQGu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5057984398500525 | will-russia-force-ukraine-to-surren | 638.1934634341383 | {"NO": 293.80653656586173, "YES": 318} | Will Russia force Ukraine to surrender? | 1648796340000 | qaeetXEaU4ZVPG2kZvUNz1BwQBq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 295, "YES": 318} | 0 | 4.693615854626581 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645590027555 | Bob | This market resolves to YES if Russia launches a full invasion and forces the official Ukrainian government to sue for peace or to surrender. Resolves to NO if Russia does not invade, Ukraine never surrenders, or only occupies rebel-held areas. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 430.09746081357895, "YES": 435.11450906686616} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645719123222 | 100 | thadthechad | 1645590027555 | 0 | 11 | 1715658418850 | 0 | 0.5057984398500525 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6003588430307902 | har9NJtFljgpELXSX9wV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-jessica-cisneros-win-the-texas | 472.08375569542216 | {"NO": 117, "YES": 184.9162443045779} | Will Jessica Cisneros win the Texas 28th democratic congressional primary? | 1646121540000 | qaeetXEaU4ZVPG2kZvUNz1BwQBq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 117, "YES": 170} | 0 | 2.8889787106006786 | True | play | NO | public | 1645590732265 | Bob | YES if AP calls it for her NO if AP calls it for Cuellar
Mar 1, 9:07pm: I did not think about a runoff. I'm not sure whether to wait or to resolve N/A | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 190.8635611574884, "YES": 233.9340151212557} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1667027337218 | 100 | thadthechad | 1653241549335 | 0 | 5 | 1650314716114 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529500225}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779601491}] | ["politics-default", "please-resolve"] | 1653241546160 | 0.6003588430307902 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IQBbrCOZVsnjvPrH4uYw | how-long-will-it-take-my-rescue-dog | 257.6108828512358 | How long will it take my rescue dog to learn her name? | 1646899140000 | HWNSFycEwNceiPbmlXM9CXckiyw2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.966171634822418 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645591863276 | Jasmine | Background info: My rescue dog will be arriving from China on March 10th. She is allegedly a three-year-old Samoyed. I do not know what her original name was, but the names listed for her on the information I received from the rescue are Bella and Molly. I will be naming her Yoyo, and I will begin using her name as soon as I pick her up from the airport around 5pm PST. When she looks at me after I say her name, she will get a treat. As she gets more consistent about looking at my after hearing her name, I will begin calling for her from further and further away.
Resolution criteria: I will judge that she knows her name when I can get her to stop what she's doing and come to me just by saying her name. I will NOT consider her to have learned her name if she stops what she's doing and comes to me if I say things that are not her name. If she consistently comes no matter what I say, I will get my roommate to call for her. And if she comes no matter what my roommate says, we will move on to my boyfriend and then her boyfriend and then we will stop and resolve the market as N/A. Otherwise, the market will resolve to the nearest guess. She will get treats for being a good girl no matter how the market resolves.
Dog tax: https://imgur.com/YH8M4Hy
Mar 11, 7:50am: she does not even know to look at me when I'm talking yet, more than 2 months looking hot right now
May 2, 12:07am: Debating how to resolve this. Before April 10, she knew her name somewhat, so I did not resolve it thinking she needed to learn it more. Now, it is looking like that's going to be the stable amount of how much she knows her name. Probably she is ignoring me sometimes, possibly she will never learn it more. I'll give it another month and see if she becomes more willing to answer to it. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664410619419 | 479.99999999999994 | Jasmine | 1645591863276 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhRN2VCDfRHPPKBnWE9hAHLDWdbZj8P2cm1pg4b=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0029c13d22f6", "prob": 0.0285388472794722, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.47517413694089355, "userId": "HWNSFycEwNceiPbmlXM9CXckiyw2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 16.174907496968796, "textFts": "", "contractId": "IQBbrCOZVsnjvPrH4uYw", "createdTime": 1645591863455, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.552", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664410619000, "totalLiquidity": 2.7723451642915853, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1cfbf2482ec6", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "1 week", "index": 1, "poolNo": 9.714771465003035e-05, "userId": "HWNSFycEwNceiPbmlXM9CXckiyw2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.9713799987856534, "textFts": "'1':1 'week':2", "contractId": "IQBbrCOZVsnjvPrH4uYw", "createdTime": 1645591938181, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.547", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664410619000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009714285714285713, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f9425dcb20c1", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "3 days", "index": 2, "poolNo": 9.714771465003035e-05, "userId": "HWNSFycEwNceiPbmlXM9CXckiyw2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.9713799987856534, "textFts": "'3':1 'day':2", "contractId": "IQBbrCOZVsnjvPrH4uYw", "createdTime": 1645591946401, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.55", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664410619000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009714285714285713, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5417cd635c2", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "2 weeks", "index": 3, "poolNo": 9.714771465003035e-05, "userId": "HWNSFycEwNceiPbmlXM9CXckiyw2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.9713799987856534, "textFts": "'2':1 'week':2", "contractId": "IQBbrCOZVsnjvPrH4uYw", "createdTime": 1645591983410, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.547", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664410619000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009714285714285713, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ea9e4a8f9719", "prob": 0.1508549484561816, "text": "1-2 months", "index": 4, "poolNo": 11.263465802591229, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 63.400745864703836, "textFts": "'-2':2 '1':1 'month':3", "contractId": "IQBbrCOZVsnjvPrH4uYw", "createdTime": 1645596883908, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.552", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664410619000, "totalLiquidity": 26.722876583666455, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "425c29f9abe2", "prob": 0.7683153618894568, "text": "Less than a month", "index": 5, "poolNo": 91.49581061062236, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27.590459362704728, "textFts": "'less':1 'month':4", "contractId": "IQBbrCOZVsnjvPrH4uYw", "createdTime": 1645605061570, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.967", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664410619000, "totalLiquidity": 50.24352141828938, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "bb1dce27bff2", "prob": 0.051990842374889414, "text": "more than 2 months", "index": 6, "poolNo": 2.1567890005563655, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 39.32722822317789, "textFts": "'2':3 'month':4", "contractId": "IQBbrCOZVsnjvPrH4uYw", "createdTime": 1645605093513, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.964", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664410619000, "totalLiquidity": 9.209806363551838, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 6 | 1645606258326 | {"bb1dce27bff2": 49.8579135127129, "ea9e4a8f9719": 50.1420864872871} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4 | xN5iRiP7yP2UliuZt6G1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4 | will-what-day-will-russia-invade-uk | 3418.0362058435894 | {"NO": 1463.5671656907305, "YES": 120.39662846568024} | Will "What day will Russia invade Ukraine?" resolve to single answer? | 1646024340000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1516, "YES": 110} | 0 | 4.646189243574272 | True | play | NO | public | 1645594418511 | Jenny | Resolves YES if https://manifold.markets/Duncan/what-day-will-russia-invade-ukraine resolves to a single answer before Mar 7, 23:59 EST (a week after market closes).
Resolves NO if Duncan's market resolves to PROB or N/A, or if it is still unresolved on Mar 7, 23:59 EST. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1575.6512377293411, "YES": 162.0729655709306} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1645759049201 | 100 | Jenny | 1645594418511 | 0 | 11 | 1715658913976 | 0 | 1645743071492 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
doyD4xTIdgylSBxZgDdw | what-will-be-the-name-of-taylor-swi | 303.9460265981468 | What will be the name of Taylor Swift's next re-recorded album? | 1672559940000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.789441012134475 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645595949670 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Taylor Swift has announced her plan to re-record her old albums; she released Fearless (Taylor's Version) in April 2021 and Red (Taylor's Version) in November. However, it is unclear which album she will re-record next. If she does not release another album in 2021, all markets will resolve NO. Feb 22, 10:30pm: I obviously mean another album in 2022. Feb 22, 10:30pm: I obviously mean *an* album in 2022. I’m great at this.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 18, 8:39pm: Looking back at this…you can’t resolve all markets NO, so I’ll resolve the market N/A to be fair. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {} | 0 | 1672605015070 | 480.00000000000006 | Conflux | 1651820356047 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a849adb40eca", "prob": 0.14561915339701687, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.412549409163466, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 37.62389263551905, "textFts": "", "contractId": "doyD4xTIdgylSBxZgDdw", "createdTime": 1645595949929, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.79", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672605015000, "totalLiquidity": 15.532709695681799, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f42e1ff5637d", "prob": 0.6952282785523364, "text": "1989 (Taylor’s Version)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 104.3370867603943, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.738924212079205, "textFts": "'1989':1 'taylor':2 'version':4", "contractId": "doyD4xTIdgylSBxZgDdw", "createdTime": 1645596084031, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.791", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672605015000, "totalLiquidity": 69.08159019480377, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "843d17b0b517", "prob": 0.10630313918665026, "text": "Speak Now (Taylor’s Version)", "index": 2, "poolNo": 6.84369727328034, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 57.53537304997672, "textFts": "'speak':1 'taylor':3 'version':5", "contractId": "doyD4xTIdgylSBxZgDdw", "createdTime": 1645596095277, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.79", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672605015000, "totalLiquidity": 19.843252648174715, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0bb67cf74a99", "prob": 0.03505053022266197, "text": "Taylor Swift (Taylor’s Version)", "index": 3, "poolNo": 1.246971060359977, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 34.329411163773855, "textFts": "'swift':2 'taylor':1,3 'version':5", "contractId": "doyD4xTIdgylSBxZgDdw", "createdTime": 1645596161046, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.789", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672605015000, "totalLiquidity": 6.542765641563568, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a2bcc45a6fd1", "prob": 0.011928874847217878, "text": "Reputation (Taylor’s Version)", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.19223680555228567, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.923013627905004, "textFts": "'reput':1 'taylor':2 'version':4", "contractId": "doyD4xTIdgylSBxZgDdw", "createdTime": 1645596171190, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.786", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672605015000, "totalLiquidity": 1.749568310925289, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d32d10f44ff9", "prob": 0.005870023794116543, "text": "Fast Bespoke Suits", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.04811349786804572, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.14836058052825, "textFts": "'bespok':2 'fast':1 'suit':3", "contractId": "doyD4xTIdgylSBxZgDdw", "createdTime": 1649841063120, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.789", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672605015000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6261358713724312, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 5 | 1651820354253 | 1645599524310 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8297519196777545 | ij9V5SPdArPr5yBdFBVb | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-i-get-a-full-time-job-making-6 | 245.34509262946852 | {"NO": 51.31091088154102, "YES": 123.34399648899046} | Will I get a full time job making > $67,000 a year before July 1st 2022? | 1652203842078 | PyDK3kP7OJWFSJaBNSWz4Pgl3j92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 48, "YES": 125} | 0 | 4.90676175518248 | True | play | YES | public | 1645597418626 | Oliver S | I am a senior at a mid-tier state school.
I am majoring in economics with a 3.84 GPA (minor in math and data analytics.)
I have internship experience.
I have applied to 30+ jobs and have 1 interview lined up.
If you have more questions feel free to ask.
Mar 7, 8:05pm: Had 2 interviews and have a 3rd on Friday. One interview went well and one did not. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 72.06500002657182, "YES": 159.0953228432372} | {"creatorFee": 0.03908729501976836, "platformFee": 0.00977182375494209, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000670820393249937, "YES": 0.0007416198487095664} | 0 | 1652203842078 | 100 | OliverS | 1645597418626 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz259bXYKpL7chGSbkct7j1QcYUrVSTQz77nx3N=s96-c | 10 | 1650314724185 | 0 | 1647899580581 | 0.8297519196777546 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1319288533951751 | s2LO2qPfRHxH0EeBFIMo | {"NO": 73.53797935037863, "YES": 1090.044521367125} | 0 | will-keltham-be-outside-the-forbidd | 1667.4449983013872 | {"NO": 281.1267472085958, "YES": 109.20841322066187} | Will Keltham be outside the Forbiddance by the end of the current thread? | 1651284963968 | HRqyoYfqd2cJEaBltoVsWInlcRs2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 285, "YES": 104} | 0 | 6.609123104055449 | True | play | NO | public | 1645600889650 | Leonardo Taglialegne | Will Keltham be stably outside the Forbiddance he's currently in at the time https://glowfic.com/posts/5694 in marked as complete?
If he's outside it but just temporarily (e.g.: to use a Summon Monster or similar) this resolves as NO.
I will resolve the market as soon as I know the answer.
If the project relocates and he's inside a different Forbiddance, this resolves as YES
Feb 23, 8:35am: If it's unclear whether he is stably outside or not, I may wait for more posts in the continuity. If the continuity goes on hiatus, or if the market reaches its close date and there is no definitive information the market resolves as N/A.
Feb 23, 8:36am: In any case, the market will be closed when the thread is marked as complete.
Feb 24, 12:09am: The link above points to "my fun research project has more existential risk than I anticipated" | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 363.32962691021277, "YES": 142.66709623434832} | {"creatorFee": 2.5767526699799985, "platformFee": 0.44098999865674215, "liquidityFee": 2.43837802605909} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1651284963968 | 102.43837802605908 | miniBill | 1645600889650 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjXiay-2U1xC10HDePvL6F8ac2ROVBwZm8KskQtwg=s96-c | 16 | 1650314782616 | 0 | 1651215972631 | 1647640098641 | 0.010148965217146356 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.008197288738294528 | 8YkDryn5mcfEcSd2iZ1e | {"NO": 236.23368088509196, "YES": 1218.786853936861} | 0 | will-at-least-3-million-americans-d | 7677.190340135672 | {"NO": 888.9725107392063, "YES": 16.170446022001272} | Will at least 3 million Americans die from nuclear war in 2022? | 1672549140000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 884, "YES": 15} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1645602833112 | Scrooge McDuck | In the event of needing a body count, I'll refer to whichever estimates are available. If none are available I'll try to make a reasonable guess. For semi-attributable and delayed-attributable (e.g. some people starving due to infrastructure loss) I'll try to make inclusions if it seems obvious those deaths would not have happened without the nuclear exchange. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 899.0001791698401, "YES": 105.28181378533581} | {"creatorFee": 0.11461717996816384, "platformFee": 7.200078127652887e-05, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1672549539942 | 240 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1671513564068 | 0 | 46 | 1650313820377 | 0 | 1 | 44 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125150}, {"name": "Paradox", "slug": "paradox", "userId": "CrQD7VbNqgbU6cjenSs1H5fdgEa2", "groupId": "AMLRqN9z8l5MxIVaTzBK", "createdTime": 1669045652609}] | ["nuclear-risk", "paradox"] | 1671513563963 | 1646282051111 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05984867050291397 | oM1Ui75GiP0ExfEHLZkh | {"NO": 221.06409499398575, "YES": 202.28136814093708} | 0.06504442049326987 | if-russia-annexes-ukraine-before-20 | 285.3252172024483 | {"NO": 49.36450058605937, "YES": 10} | If Russia annexes Ukraine before 2024, will Ukraine's 2030 real GDP be over 180bn USD (in 2020 US dollars)? | 1704085140000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 10} | 3.078191837246648e-16 | 3.8008838273995584 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645606012192 | Scrooge McDuck | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update 2024-Jan-06:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I don't think Ukraine counts as \"annexed\". I therefore resolve this market as NA, and we look to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the other market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/ScroogeMcDuck/if-russia-does-not-annex-ukraine-be", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Original Criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The spirit of the question is more aimed at the full-annexation scenario. If they only annex part of Ukraine and if there is an agreeable way to partially-resolve then I'd be open to that, otherwise NA. This is part of a conditional forecast. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We can use the world bank's GDP numbers. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=UA", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=UA", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We can use the World Bank's GDP deflator to adjust it to 2020 dollars.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ttps://", "type": "text"}, {"text": "data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG?locations=UA", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG?locations=UA", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution waits until the GDP and deflator numbers for the fiscal year 2030 are published. So, probably some time in 2031.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is about Ukraine's GDP given Russian NOT annexing them this year, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/if-russia-does-not-annex-ukraine-be", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/if-russia-does-not-annex-ukraine-be", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "And this one is about Ukraine's GDP if they DO annex Ukraine:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/if-russia-annexes-ukraine-before-20", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/if-russia-annexes-ukraine-before-20", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 57.65624562294545, "YES": 14.142842730512138} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1704566608145 | 220 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1704566608582 | 1.1 | 1 | 10 | 1650314757795 | 0 | 2 | 8 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529575421}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227282}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703131117158}] | ["economics-default", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.09690920777145606 | 1688273803621 | 1704566444805 | False | 0.07 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3357933149869436 | t8iuTnbtuLmH8fJdBz7P | {"NO": 919.577815608266, "YES": 1129.1336551507532} | 0.29164897934926737 | if-russia-does-not-annex-ukraine-be | 1865.5973677558432 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 10} | If Russia does NOT annex Ukraine before 2024, will Ukraine's 2030 real GDP be over 180bn USD (in 2020 US dollars)? | 1956545940000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 10} | 0 | 9.61995874417545 | False | basic | public | 1645606070119 | Scrooge McDuck | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update 2024-Jan-06:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I don't think Ukraine counts as \"annexed\", so I resolved ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the other market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/ScroogeMcDuck/if-russia-does-not-annex-ukraine-be", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": " to NA. We can re-open this market, and extend the date until 2031 (or whenever GDP data is available for 2030).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Original Criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is part of a conditional forecast. This version is about Ukraine's GDP given Russian NOT annexing them this year. For the other version (Ukraine's GDP if Russia does annex Ukraine), ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "click here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/if-russia-annexes-ukraine-before-20", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution waits until the GDP and deflator numbers for the fiscal year 2030 are published. So, probably some time in 2031.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We can use the world bank's GDP numbers.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=UA", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=UA", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "And we can use the World Bank's GDP deflator, to adjust it to 2020 dollars. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG?locations=UA", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG?locations=UA", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Ukraine's 2030 real GDP be over 180bn USD (in 2020 US dollars)?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"NO": 20.6162557342501, "YES": 14.142842730512138} | {"creatorFee": 0.14439393232937514, "platformFee": 0.14439393232937514, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1000 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1715034667456 | 1.1 | 23 | 1650314787715 | 0 | 2 | 10 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529576722}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227305}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703132566871}] | ["economics-default", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.09552647215710855 | 1715034663393 | 1704568635217 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6112506086316549 | lynZPPtVvk3ubzJ9ea9X | {"NO": 12.42895126810187, "YES": 376.64376698326896} | 0 | will-scott-alexander-review-one-of | 412.61591522146387 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 65} | Will Scott Alexander review one of Rene Girard's books on mimetic desire? | 1677571200000 | OVEYlvXPDVefqYKo3dsfuUARUnt2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 65} | 4.208640103298544 | True | play | NO | public | 1645615475981 | Michael Hendricks | This market resolves Yes if https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-one-of-rene-girards-boo does not resolve N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 72.32635757799503, "YES": 90.69250244921022} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1677679176468 | 100 | mndrix | 1677164359033 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjaCgK2UWNpiYp8tpMsnOkVk30bgGGzC_ovr_08_oU=s96-c | 5 | 1650314742958 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1677164358903 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Feb 23, 4:26am: I botched the resolution date. Closing. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 70.71138522543595} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645615608309 | 100 | mndrix | 1645615557081 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjaCgK2UWNpiYp8tpMsnOkVk30bgGGzC_ovr_08_oU=s96-c | 1 | 1715657876465 | 0 | 0.5000000000000001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5924184453986285 | tKgpjLLDT1J4dLRRQV3W | {"NO": 839.5687006952007, "YES": 25.11478719257692} | 1 | will-scott-alexander-review-bruce-f | 980.6276741458491 | {"NO": 56.67647684544144, "YES": 54.695849008709374} | Will Scott Alexander review Bruce Fink's "A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis"? | 1651163878940 | OVEYlvXPDVefqYKo3dsfuUARUnt2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 61} | 0 | 4.129717839470934 | True | play | YES | public | 1645616189411 | Michael Hendricks | This market resolves Yes if https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-bruce-finks-a-clinical does not resolve N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 72.2710315444577, "YES": 84.74028387558573} | {"creatorFee": 2.587795828794445, "platformFee": 0.4312993047990742, "liquidityFee": 2.587795828794445} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1651163878940 | 102.58779582879446 | mndrix | 1645616189411 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjaCgK2UWNpiYp8tpMsnOkVk30bgGGzC_ovr_08_oU=s96-c | 11 | 1650314789371 | 0 | 1651129824145 | 0.979834366037907 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7274032817999654 | rIQrEP6TbCk9cI2Djbg1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7274032817999654 | will-gme-open-march-1st-at-or-above | 1411.387419178884 | {"NO": 228.93640417790772, "YES": 399.67617664320807} | Will GME open March 1st at or above $120 | 1646114340000 | MAAD1J6G9lXzi01YGIiKAvh8KAN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 230, "YES": 405} | 0 | 4.691597092983636 | True | play | YES | public | 1645617425516 | Dustin | Resolves to YES if on the morning of March 1, 2022 GME stock opens at or above $120 / share. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 328.20415208623655, "YES": 536.1315776431192} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646145091227 | 100 | Dustin | 1645617425516 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhOa--qvfxnXT1JfaOu1QgWzLbV_gIUyiQ7sh4hoQ=s96-c | 14 | 1715658766535 | 0 | 1 | 1645642135983 | 0.7274032817999654 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9847803122867592 | kCG93rCm2LkgMQbtPVJV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9847803122867592 | will-i-be-alive-to-press-the-yes-bu | 6399.621135434069 | {"NO": 284.6076551397964, "YES": 4741.771209426134} | Will I be alive to press the "YES" button tomorrow? | 1645732800000 | VfvvoZdf0nZ6zM63ogTgeuPWSSo1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 281, "YES": 4801} | 0 | 4.625017903457569 | True | play | YES | public | 1645634347569 | Johnny | This market resolves to "YES" at noon tomorrow, unless I am permanently indisposed by then and thus unable to press the button. I have no reason to think I won't be alive tomorrow. I have made no arrangements for the resolution of this market in the event of my death. This market is ~~a naked grab for 4% of the total pool~~ an experiment with the platform.
Close date updated to 2022-02-24 12:00 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 620.0949259395891, "YES": 4987.983242327285} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645732984848 | 100 | TheSkeward | 1645634347569 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj4aU69N8prXAd7lwmlS3dHW-lp_SfATAlIRGkJtg=s96-c | 27 | 1715658589553 | 0 | 1645667227559 | 0.9847803122867592 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu | what-will-be-the-next-country-to-jo | 37804.4629906717 | What will be the next country to join NATO? | 1680615109119 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.6166677844479995 | True | basic | 4145263249e7 | public | 1645635192783 | Bolton Bailey | If no new country joins NATO before February 23, 2032, this market resolves to N/A.
May 20, 9:19pm: Update: I posted a reply to the "Simultaneously" market expressing skepticism, but looking back, I don't think I was clear. To throw a bone to the (person) who bet it all on "Simultaneously" apparently without reading this comment, I will go 1/3-1/3-1/3 on Sweden, Finland, and "Simultaneously" if they do indeed join simultaneously. But I'm disqualifying any other answers that list more than one country, and if some set of countries other than {Sweden, Finland} join simultaneously, it will just be a choose multiple between those countries. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.7845106098036374, "platformFee": 0.9461276524509094, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1680615109119 | 2300 | BoltonBailey | 1680609144245 | 0 | 61 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2a6f0769fc3e", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.222533356668612e-05, "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.6221911103332944, "textFts": "", "contractId": "rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu", "createdTime": 1645635192998, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:49.089", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680615109000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006222222222222223, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "28b84a90e66a", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Bosnia and Herzegovina", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.00026223533431674864, "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.6220911078331697, "textFts": "'bosnia':1 'herzegovina':3", "contractId": "rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu", "createdTime": 1645635231089, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:49.089", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680615109000, "totalLiquidity": 0.026222222222222223, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cc33c99dc90a", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Georgia", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.00014222933386671112, "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.4221511093332446, "textFts": "'georgia':1", "contractId": "rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu", "createdTime": 1645635251744, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:47.341", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680615109000, "totalLiquidity": 0.014222222222222223, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "815ba6cba0af", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Ukraine", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.00010222733371669863, "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0221711098332695, "textFts": "'ukrain':1", "contractId": "rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu", "createdTime": 1645635260685, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:46.958", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680615109000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010222222222222223, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d93a5f28a42d", "prob": 0.004180014690165966, "text": "Sweden", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.15767580998030856, "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 37.56367726355353, "textFts": "'sweden':1", "contractId": "rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu", "createdTime": 1645635283679, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:47.732", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680615109000, "totalLiquidity": 2.4336974418299624, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4145263249e7", "prob": 0.9905099279648468, "text": "Finland", "index": 5, "poolNo": 114.44942298482329, "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0965395074225195, "textFts": "'finland':1", "contractId": "rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu", "createdTime": 1645635292388, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:47.731", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680615109000, "totalLiquidity": 11.20260299682934, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5ba0f987bf99", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Serbia", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.00010222733371669863, "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0221711098332695, "textFts": "'serbia':1", "contractId": "rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu", "createdTime": 1645635299354, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:48.059", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680615109000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010222222222222223, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6638c6f9ba28", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Ireland", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.00014222933386671112, "userId": "2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.4221511093332446, "textFts": "'ireland':1", "contractId": "rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu", "createdTime": 1645650366158, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:48.057", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680615109000, "totalLiquidity": 0.014222222222222223, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b9cecb08add5", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Kosovo", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.0001822313340167236, "userId": "2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.8221311088332195, "textFts": "'kosovo':1", "contractId": "rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu", "createdTime": 1645650402410, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:48.059", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680615109000, "totalLiquidity": 0.018222222222222223, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b2404cdb6c5d", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Cyprus", "index": 9, "poolNo": 6.222533356668612e-05, "userId": "2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6221911103332944, "textFts": "'cyprus':1", "contractId": "rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu", "createdTime": 1645650488058, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:49.688", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680615109000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006222222222222223, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f62701fb5307", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Kaliningrad oblast", "index": 10, "poolNo": 6.222533356668612e-05, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6221911103332944, "textFts": "'kaliningrad':1 'oblast':2", "contractId": "rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu", "createdTime": 1647921507000, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:49.688", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680615109000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006222222222222223, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "92ce29ad528d", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Mexico", "index": 11, "poolNo": 6.222533356668612e-05, "userId": "rQkLnO74pAd8rZfZt78lUO1DrLQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6221911103332944, "textFts": "'mexico':1", "contractId": "rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu", "createdTime": 1647925380333, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:50.783", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680615109000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006222222222222223, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9acbdbfc4583", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Scotland", "index": 12, "poolNo": 6.222533356668612e-05, "userId": "zY0oQH3nS4RODXib9Kd7jK6dJuS2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6221911103332944, "textFts": "'scotland':1", "contractId": "rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu", "createdTime": 1649467887452, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:50.785", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680615109000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006222222222222223, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9a2217244fc2", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Catalonia", "index": 13, "poolNo": 6.222533356668612e-05, "userId": "zY0oQH3nS4RODXib9Kd7jK6dJuS2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6221911103332944, "textFts": "'catalonia':1", "contractId": "rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu", "createdTime": 1649467925516, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:48.23", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680615109000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006222222222222223, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2eba8c5ca681", "prob": 0.003810057344987252, "text": "Sweden and Finland simultaneously", "index": 14, "poolNo": 0.2691391008651618, "userId": "ARMEVhOiWvaqFvLASFGwHkDwohI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 70.36998165128256, "textFts": "'finland':3 'simultan':4 'sweden':1", "contractId": "rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu", "createdTime": 1649555020589, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:53.316", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680615109000, "totalLiquidity": 4.3519321673854385, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c9c77efabf7f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "United States", "index": 15, "poolNo": 6.222533356668612e-05, "userId": "w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6221911103332944, "textFts": "'state':2 'unit':1", "contractId": "rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu", "createdTime": 1651096261397, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:50.905", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680615109000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006222222222222223, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "41399b4c8834", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Republic of China", "index": 16, "poolNo": 6.222533356668612e-05, "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6221911103332944, "textFts": "'china':3 'republ':1", "contractId": "rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu", "createdTime": 1656286370657, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:51.235", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680615109000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006222222222222223, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "244681597041", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Moldova ", "index": 17, "poolNo": 6.222533356668612e-05, "userId": "2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6221911103332944, "textFts": "'moldova':1", "contractId": "rSxmgiCvUY6cKwHE39Nu", "createdTime": 1677666872992, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:50.906", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1680615109000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006222222222222223, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 54 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529421829}, {"name": "NATO", "slug": "nato", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Pakn0bNotFIXDGJ4007n", "createdTime": 1664057590776}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224583}] | ["world-default", "nato", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1680609144123 | 1653139670262 | False | {"4145263249e7": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.846053760450046 | vv0ecZlhzAKrLFlKfkEG | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.846053760450046 | will-i-go-to-bed-by-1215am-tonight | 137 | {"NO": 19, "YES": 108} | Will I go to bed by 12:15am tonight? | 1645680600000 | nUekmymfGaSbIQK89LsGt8DZQoy2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 19, "YES": 108} | 0 | 4.945972551838699 | True | play | YES | public | 1645636904917 | miriam | Resolves to YES if I have put all electronic devices away, lights out, and am trying to sleep by 12:15am tonight.
Last night I stayed up till 2 and want to incentivized myself not to do that. 12:15 will be a challenge, but I'm pretty good at doing things given the sort of social accountability that this market provides.
Will resolve in the morning.
Feb 24, 9:50am: Went to bed at precisely 12:15. Thanks y'all for the incentivizing, that definitely would not have happened otherwise given what was going on last night on the news...! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 49.830091312378705, "YES": 116.8170193114} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1645714319986 | 100 | miriam | 1645636904917 | 0 | 11 | 1715658859780 | 0 | 1 | 1645658632458 | 0.846053760450046 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.36720707386508056 | 9ICmvEqMnF0jfdwRkdLn | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.36720707386508056 | will-i-wake-up-before-715-am-tomorr | 150.53643880484952 | {"NO": 69.46356119515048, "YES": 76} | Will I wake up before 7:15 am tomorrow? | 1645715700000 | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 70, "YES": 76} | 0 | 4.90969048879061 | True | play | YES | public | 1645637755642 | Daniel Filan | My alarm is at 8 pm at the moment. The last two nights I've woken up before 7 am, looked at the clock, and then went back to sleep - which is a bit unusual, but the weather here has been colder than it typically is. Resolves yes if tomorrow morning I remember waking up before 7:15 am.
Feb 23, 9:36am: Gah I meant 8 am.
Feb 23, 10:34am: That is: my alarm is at 8 am. Every other time mentioned is accurate.
Feb 24, 9:29am: woke up a few times, including at 6:59 am. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 115.71456019255912, "YES": 88.14805229351526} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1645723832177 | 100 | DanielFilan | 1645637755642 | 0 | 6 | 1715657667659 | 0 | 1 | 1645691852909 | 0.36720707386508056 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25 | cfyyJxRjb4RKrENt9N4a | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.25 | this-market-resolves-to-25-or-75-wh | 11863.251514880178 | {"NO": 1102.607234278752, "YES": 1406.1412508410729} | This market resolves to 25%, or 75%, whichever is closest to the final probability | 1646024340000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1580, "YES": 1288} | 0 | 4.634850863956078 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645639687457 | Jenny | This market resolves PROB depending on the implied probability when the market closes:
From 0% to 49%, resolves PROB 25%.
From 50% to 100%, resolves PROB 75%. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1936.2417500728086, "YES": 1595.2403782389576} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646156107904 | 100 | Jenny | 1645639687457 | 0 | 24 | 1715658445351 | 0 | 1 | 1646024346830 | 0.25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7649827527475547 | 9mdpKZ6K0iQPmhksCiv2 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7649827527475547 | will-this-market-probability-be-at | 63.26999729542889 | {"NO": 14.933374984517748, "YES": 25.796627720053372} | Will this market probability be at least 50% after the first day when the market pool doesn't double? | 1645765140000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 26} | 0 | 5.409324831886362 | True | play | YES | public | 1645640310702 | Jenny | This market closes every day at midnight EST.
If the market pool has at least doubled since the previous midnight, I reopen the market and extend it by another day.
If the market pool hasn't doubled, I resolve the market to YES if the implied probability is at least 50% and NO if it's at most 49%.
Close date updated to 2022-02-24 11:59 pm
Feb 23, 11:19pm: Day 1: $10 -> $21. Technically I was supposed to do this in 40 minutes, but I have to do it early because of # RussiaUkraine.
Feb 25, 9:13am: Day 2: $21 -> $41. Huh, it did not double. That's disappointing. YES wins. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 19.74581069628296, "YES": 35.62467601629995} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645798450103 | 100 | Jenny | 1645640310702 | 0 | 6 | 1715657682440 | 0 | 1 | 1645660028425 | 0.7649827527475547 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29999999999999993 | IuNIUUeeVJZTyChgOhbD | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.29999999999999993 | will-paperwork-become-underemployed | 10 | {"NO": 7, "YES": 3} | Will Paperwork become underemployed within a year? | 1677801540000 | SwS1HrRs1DRdcPo58aU2OiHPdxv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 7, "YES": 3} | 0 | 6.366309919943205 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645640997108 | UWU | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8.36743692536729, "YES": 5.477773297609166} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1645641422074 | 100 | Uwu | 1645640997108 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwFFIwDOtCgUt1Xvz4quyNvE7mLOWY8xDRkdOr_=s96-c | 1 | 1715657922210 | 0 | 0.29999999999999993 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.038233058327266575 | r4H9RtKCL3kLTeJZHqtx | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.038233058327266575 | will-manifoldmarkets-add-a-way-to-s | 670.1819543967298 | {"NO": 541.4228030644069, "YES": 42.39524253886334} | Will ManifoldMarkets add a way to search for markets from the home page in February? | 1646110740000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 544, "YES": 40} | 0 | 4.697225426586848 | True | play | NO | public | 1645641526109 | Jenny | Currently if you want to search for a specific market you first have to click on "Markets" and then use the search bar. Will MM add a way to search for markets directly from the home page, before the end of the month?
If, for some reason, this search function is only available to logged in users, I'll count it as partially implemented and resolve PROB 50%.
If it is implemented fully, I will resolve YES as soon as possible, without waiting for the end of the month. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 576.8405816519111, "YES": 89.9978964676292} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646156009606 | 100 | Jenny | 1645641526109 | 0 | 12 | 1715658759212 | 0 | 1 | 0.038233058327266575 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9731516146817444 | XcybhRF8HbHTXt3fsM8y | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9731516146817444 | will-my-portfolio-increase-to-at-le | 1160.572991144341 | {"NO": 84.78917283396657, "YES": 756.6378360216925} | Will my portfolio increase to at least M$2000 by the end of March? | 1646254950913 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 85, "YES": 770} | 0 | 4.6728114281877655 | True | play | YES | public | 1645642030596 | Athena | This market resolves to "YES" if my portfolio reaches a value of M$2000 or more at any time on or after March 1st, 2022 prior to April 1st, 2022. I will be creating markets, but I will not be purchasing any M$. My portfolio's current total value is M$1071.
Feb 24, 5:35pm: Portfolio has shot up to the 1450s.
March 2nd, 4:02pm: https://i.imgur.com/ksKAzTF.png | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 137.87199200631312, "YES": 830.0556655472029} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1646254950913 | 100 | Athena | 1645642030596 | 0 | 15 | 1715658301002 | 0 | 1646198607994 | 0.9731516146817444 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.008619720593711275 | lzaEroqohVXpvV3xhWL6 | {"NO": 158.2627735204132, "YES": 448.5039453759896} | 0 | will-at-least-67000-people-in-the-u | 1360.488878886777 | {"NO": 294, "YES": 4} | Will at least 67,000 people in the U.K. die from nuclear war in 2022? | 1672549140000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 294, "YES": 4} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1645644558139 | Scrooge McDuck | In the event of needing a body count, I'll refer to whichever estimates are available. If none are available I'll try to make a reasonable guess. For semi-attributable and delayed-attributable (e.g. some people starving due to infrastructure loss) I'll try to make inclusions if it seems obvious those deaths would not have happened without the nuclear exchange. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 296.11752396801853, "YES": 33.4515769441442} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1672549576393 | 160 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1671168465340 | 0 | 28 | 1650314743346 | 0 | 1 | 26 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125150}, {"name": "Paradox", "slug": "paradox", "userId": "CrQD7VbNqgbU6cjenSs1H5fdgEa2", "groupId": "AMLRqN9z8l5MxIVaTzBK", "createdTime": 1669045708930}] | ["nuclear-risk", "paradox"] | 1671168465180 | 1648082705789 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9051742048484919 | iCubAAZrbhRioMBIKeUC | {"NO": 311.7957218679937, "YES": 106.64025486648386} | 1 | will-the-next-uwcs-president-serve | 2777.3257558745577 | {"NO": 508, "YES": 1127} | Will the next UWCS president serve the entirety of their term? | 1679097540000 | SwS1HrRs1DRdcPo58aU2OiHPdxv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 508, "YES": 1127} | 0 | 6.3201571669264105 | True | play | YES | public | 1645645686277 | UWU | This market resolves affirmatively if whoever is elected UWCS president for the 2022/2023 period is removed from that position for a non-temporarily.
Close date updated to 2023-03-17 11:59 pm
Feb 24, 2:47pm: corrective the market resolves negatively if the above happens, otherwise it resolves positively if it closes. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 534.000014981554, "YES": 1545.3388799873962} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1679099122571 | 120 | Uwu | 1679080732089 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwFFIwDOtCgUt1Xvz4quyNvE7mLOWY8xDRkdOr_=s96-c | 12 | 1650314721466 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1679080731944 | 0.97 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4549310902836632 | IMAskU1DfcGNWLqRTkzs | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4549310902836632 | will-tesla-stock-close-at-or-above | 350 | {"NO": 105.99999999999997, "YES": 96} | Will Tesla stock close at or above $750 on February 24th, 2022? | 1645732800000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 106, "YES": 96} | 0 | 4.835790901138866 | True | play | YES | public | 1645647103826 | Athena | This market resolves to 'YES' if shares of Tesla stock ($TSLA, listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange) close at or above a price of $750 USD per share at 4:00 PM ET on February 24th, 2022. I will be checking the price using Google Finance.
Feb 24, 4:00pm: $800.77 close. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 149.1348785510955, "YES": 136.24680546915587} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000670820393249937, "YES": 0.0007416198487095664} | 0 | 1645736479144 | 100 | Athena | 1645647103826 | 0 | 8 | 1715657904241 | 0 | 1 | 0.4549310902836632 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5394452967235376 | pNrtvglxwni9hE2AFDR7 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5394452967235376 | will-leo-somehow-leave-his-new-job | 1493 | {"NO": 688, "YES": 805} | Will Leo somehow leave his new job, or become otherwise underemployed? | 1649704580646 | SwS1HrRs1DRdcPo58aU2OiHPdxv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 688, "YES": 805} | 0 | 4.648050701437393 | True | play | YES | public | 1645648145976 | UWU | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1013.2128976678594, "YES": 1096.5635458105016} | {"creatorFee": 27.519999999999985, "platformFee": 6.879999999999996, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1649704580646 | 100 | Uwu | 1645648145976 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwFFIwDOtCgUt1Xvz4quyNvE7mLOWY8xDRkdOr_=s96-c | 8 | 1715658710919 | 0 | 0.5394452967235376 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.027785244842764092 | d2OW1WyF2njDRz03rZaG | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.027785244842764092 | will-russia-annex-donetsk-and-luhan | 1518.043731301681 | {"NO": 1239.3881632388968, "YES": 148.56810545942216} | Will Russia annex Donetsk and Luhansk by March 30th? | 1648767737256 | nwkoY4jyJ7XGLxcifXevClNIf542 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1244, "YES": 135} | 0 | 4.650498462814369 | True | play | NO | public | 1645652143393 | Nathaniel Lovin | This market resolves YES if Russia makes Donetsk and Luhansk (or either one) federal Subject(s), signs a Treaty on Accession with Donetsk People's Republic/Luhansk People's Republic (even not fully admitted to the Federation), or similar formal plans to annex either or both oblasts are pursed.
Will resolve early only if full annexation occurs. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1368.5390673580773, "YES": 231.35730126188423} | {"creatorFee": 5.758250747932756, "platformFee": 1.439562686983189, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1648767737256 | 100 | NathanielLovin | 1645652143393 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw672dayHddBuJS6RyIdoRQHTgsrMCf0Cg6vMmP=s96-c | 19 | 1715658457279 | 0 | 0.027785244842764092 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14987073072000048 | 5x5TdBIk1pS54xxpOc3S | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.14987073072000048 | will-the-discord-have-300-members-b | 422.564978934941 | {"NO": 248, "YES": 119.435021065059} | Will the Discord have 300+ members by Friday morning? | 1645765200000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 248, "YES": 108} | 0 | 4.742539810745433 | True | play | NO | public | 1645658278283 | Athena | This market resolves to 'YES' if the official Manifold Markets Discord server (linked on the website) has 300 or more members when I check the member count via the mobile app on Friday, February 25th 2022 at 9:30am EST.
Close date updated to 2022-02-25 12:00 am | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 338.7850316728953, "YES": 142.24602592170288} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1645812451122 | 100 | Athena | 1645658278283 | 0 | 16 | 1715657002719 | 0 | 1 | 1645670989154 | 0.14987073072000048 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.39827722632859797 | MwLtMj0JYFbiIDBrsQxk | {"NO": 25.015679746039773, "YES": 989.1987057910223} | 0 | will-starship-reach-reach-orbit-by | 1479.5990873352057 | {"NO": 129.83941093238172, "YES": 117.63920891996102} | Will Starship reach reach orbit by May 31st? | 1654034340000 | 0trb3mwgiWc2gsPn7AqeHiEzXuU2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 130.1, "YES": 114.9} | 0 | 4.199784141571633 | True | play | NO | public | 1645658475382 | Donald | This market resolves "YES" if SpaceX's Starship successfully reaches orbit before May 31st 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 188.4043748717145, "YES": 160.4679213159395} | {"creatorFee": 4.26662868920854, "platformFee": 0.7111047815347562, "liquidityFee": 4.26662868920854} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1654070153379 | 104.26662868920855 | Donald | 1654001848712 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz8FznDUav6nMo39bAo1a4bgdeFlljmg5Cjb4Tc=s96-c | 18 | 1650314554204 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529447070}] | ["technology-default"] | 1654001847395 | 1651267030125 | 0.01646298204278728 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.040539502025601984 | Icf19vkG9f7A5nfrlqo9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.040539502025601984 | will-ethereum-be-at-or-above-3000-b | 695.061641890261 | {"NO": 368.60144946489146, "YES": 64.33690864484765} | Will Ethereum be at or above $3000 by March 1st? | 1646067600000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 369, "YES": 41} | 0 | 4.724294503722882 | True | play | YES | public | 1645658592439 | Athena | This market resolves to 'YES' if the value of the cryptocurrency Ethereum ($ETH) is equal to or greater than $3000 USD at 12:00 am EST on March 1st according to coinmarketcap.com.
Close date updated to 2022-02-28 12:00 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 424.07299598490584, "YES": 87.16984499733262} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1646196891829 | 100 | Athena | 1645658592439 | 0 | 14 | 1715657915043 | 0 | 1 | 1646058804347 | 0.040539502025601984 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17257476567559354 | mrBOw1mFn3j9QHj5pFjn | {"NO": 107.93596884870496, "YES": 1778.3044722558923} | 0 | will-apple-announce-an-arvr-headset | 1877.4705188143575 | {"NO": 80.72970684108402, "YES": 84.9} | Will Apple announce an AR/VR headset by the end of 2022 | 1672527540000 | 0trb3mwgiWc2gsPn7AqeHiEzXuU2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 87.1, "YES": 84.9} | 0 | 3.8655861008869 | True | play | NO | public | 1645659053596 | Donald | Mar 6, 10:24am: This market will resolve YES if apple anounces a VR or AR headset before the end of 2022
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 129.84642272765112, "YES": 102.82722185058411} | {"creatorFee": 6.357132317377395, "platformFee": 0.055461016646952674, "liquidityFee": 0.332766099881716} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1672564543022 | 200.33276609988172 | Donald | 1672348585413 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz8FznDUav6nMo39bAo1a4bgdeFlljmg5Cjb4Tc=s96-c | 27 | 1650314750085 | 0 | 1 | 27 | [{"name": "Apple", "slug": "apple", "userId": "T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1664067897057}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529453538}, {"name": "Virtual Reality", "slug": "virtual-reality", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "tHkKwsHjd8vhks1CL5oF", "createdTime": 1669870829049}] | ["technology-default", "apple", "virtual-reality"] | 1672348585270 | 1666556616227 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zDijZSLLJgqZ85TW7QY8 | who-will-win-the-predictit-degenera | 79 | Who will win the PredictIt Degenerates poker game on Wednesday, February 23rd? | 1645711620000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.112958945080439 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1645660812290 | David Glidden | PredictIt trader Gaeten Dugas (@GaetenD on Twitter) hosts a weekly poker night for PredictIt traders (and associated circles). Who will win tonight?
Confirmation of game tonight: https://twitter.com/diese_schwartz/status/1496527768934584320
Close date updated to 2022-02-24 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-24 9:07 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-24 9:07 am
Feb 24, 7:14pm: The winner did not correspond to any answers listed so I'm resolving N/A to refund everyone's funds (including my own). Market for next week is here: https://manifold.markets/dglid/who-will-win-the-predictit-degenera-712b07492186 | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1645748296008 | 380 | dglid | 1645660812290 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f5b2c30f2d08", "prob": 0.42155626581211, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 43.195352081726696, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 59.27104584622894, "textFts": "", "contractId": "zDijZSLLJgqZ85TW7QY8", "createdTime": 1645660812444, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.915", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645748296000, "totalLiquidity": 50.5987518974532, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "08f32ef54b16", "prob": 0.11401585427559449, "text": "calcrisk79", "index": 1, "poolNo": 6.544174568851773, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50.85288315115145, "textFts": "'calcrisk79':1", "contractId": "zDijZSLLJgqZ85TW7QY8", "createdTime": 1645661379297, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.911", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645748296000, "totalLiquidity": 18.242536684095118, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2c32afa2e679", "prob": 0.16933715635014338, "text": "LucyCross", "index": 2, "poolNo": 12.233084738726069, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 60.00791069544412, "textFts": "'lucycross':1", "contractId": "zDijZSLLJgqZ85TW7QY8", "createdTime": 1645661385950, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.914", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645748296000, "totalLiquidity": 27.09394501602294, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1dd53e72295a", "prob": 0.2949907235621521, "text": "derSchwartz", "index": 3, "poolNo": 38.16322946591641, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 91.20771822042914, "textFts": "'derschwartz':1", "contractId": "zDijZSLLJgqZ85TW7QY8", "createdTime": 1645661398756, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.915", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645748296000, "totalLiquidity": 58.998144712430424, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "113fb641b07e", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "IMAGINE.PI.420", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.0001200060004500375, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.199939998499925, "textFts": "'420':2 'imagine.pi':1", "contractId": "zDijZSLLJgqZ85TW7QY8", "createdTime": 1645711523987, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.915", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1645748296000, "totalLiquidity": 0.012, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0921363349393652 | zybH1j61CF37ztQGWiBX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.0921363349393652 | acx-predictions-will-be-the-largest | 4254.273646297943 | {"NO": 935.5412835109328, "YES": 222.18507019112283} | ACX Predictions will be the largest community on March 1 or this market will have pool under $1000 | 1646110740000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 994, "YES": 135} | 0 | 4.657384112396193 | True | play | NO | public | 1645661799468 | Jenny | If this market has pool smaller than $1000 when it closes, this question automatically resolves YES.
Otherwise, this market resolves YES or NO, depending on whether ACX Predictions has strictly more followers than any other community.
I will try to resolve this market consistently with @SneakySly's resolution. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1103.1043875335733, "YES": 351.41618590233554} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1646156151308 | 100 | Jenny | 1645661799468 | 0 | 17 | 1715658984696 | 0 | 1 | 0.0921363349393652 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4309983008904651 | w0yVHDzaWIHILWB7hJ6a | {"NO": 31.957429005028587, "YES": 2427.8169825793902} | 0 | finland-joins-nato-in-2022 | 9396.868502927702 | {"NO": 467.8861303718585, "YES": 476.0048339699575} | Finland joins NATO in 2022 | 1672559940000 | QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 469, "YES": 457} | 0 | 3.0934326540858024 | True | play | NO | public | 1645661958846 | Gustavo Lacerda |
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 570.2837498500764, "YES": 752.1359484866997} | {"creatorFee": 51.38718505503763, "platformFee": 4.034836124669979, "liquidityFee": 24.209016748019863} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1673454888600 | 220.0126131439156 | GustavoLacerda | 1672759460474 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjR_r0ypbWKIiccnCVk1TbkoS3GQr2VxwiXOnRrzps=s96-c | 113 | 1650314804223 | 0 | 3 | 103 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1664055510922}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529422683}, {"name": "NATO", "slug": "nato", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Pakn0bNotFIXDGJ4007n", "createdTime": 1664055513630}] | ["world-default", "politics-default", "nato"] | 1672542804035 | 1672759455720 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7916659722274306 | YZ8zGhAG9lFwO6cZlkry | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7916659722274306 | will-i-weigh-75-kg-or-less-at-some | 322 | {"NO": 16.98718090197802, "YES": 103.01281909802196} | Will I weigh 75 kg or less at some point before 01 Sep 2022? | 1646628309867 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 30, "YES": 90} | 0 | 4.962203626998808 | True | play | YES | public | 1645662872810 | Undox | I currently weigh 83kg having come down from 92kg about 2 months ago. I am 175cm tall, male.
NO arguments: If I get to 75kg it will be the lightest I have been in over 20 years. Losing the last weight near ideal BMI is harder as metabolism slows down. No weight training or cardio. Only walking about 1km-2km per day average.
YES arguments: I am motivated in the diet for health reasons. I have no desire to return to sugar eating to social drinking lifestyle. WFH reduces temptation from coworkers donut runs etc.
Weigh Method: sunday morning, nearly naked weigh in before food/water but after poo/pee. Using seca analog scales.
Market closes YES if on any Sunday morning weigh-in I am at 75kg or below.
Feb 27, 7:18am: Update, now 82kg
Mar 7, 3:44pm: Yolo liquidation. Only one trader on this who bet YES so no one hurt. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 54.772803473074106, "YES": 106.77162544749424} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1646628309867 | 100 | Undox | 1645662872810 | 0 | 2 | 1715658325927 | 0 | 1645664809751 | 0.7916659722274306 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9287036743516971 | TH444hmpBehBoHc6IAH8 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9287036743516971 | will-the-nasdaq-composite-index-be | 52 | {"NO": 7, "YES": 31} | Will the Nasdaq Composite Index be above 13,000 at close on February 25th? | 1645812000000 | xvewCXFLLuZ0b97GY0DHmD8BsSt2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 7, "YES": 31} | 0 | 5.447450153243938 | True | play | YES | public | 1645664966244 | Basil Covington |
Close date updated to 2022-02-25 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-25 12:00 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 11.747936010210474, "YES": 36.13947980394848} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645826999266 | 100 | BasilCovington | 1645664966244 | 0 | 6 | 1715658202164 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529570639}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.9287036743516971 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.010462313941458683 | 5E0ulvZC2tjp4nqBP1YX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.010462313941458683 | will-this-market-be-the-largest-of | 1337.2571081991491 | {"NO": 874.7605099984855, "YES": 39.67783884930823} | Will this market be the largest of all markets tagged whale bait at the end of the day on March 31st, 2022? | 1648789140000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 874, "YES": 26} | 0 | 4.668327987603815 | True | play | NO | public | 1645669629825 | Patrick Delaney | Will this whale bait bet broadly best the will of the wishful, would-be whale bait wankers? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 909.643195373457, "YES": 93.53384324373764} | {"creatorFee": 1.7174780202282989, "platformFee": 0.4293695050570747, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648868890362 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1645669629825 | 0 | 17 | 1715656991237 | 0 | 1 | 1648237109448 | 0.010462313941458683 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1250124996875 | axbMRFi9Q5JEjzVwy7DD | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1250124996875 | will-i-work-for-at-least-8-hours-on-7d5c3cee10b2 | 20 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 5} | Will I work for at least 8 hours on February 24, 2022? | 1645765140000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 5} | 0 | 5.850273745513611 | True | play | NO | public | 1645671659059 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if I log at least 8 hours of my time labeled "work" on February 24, 2022 Eastern Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
See this previous question: https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-i-work-for-at-least-8-hours-on | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 18.70908871377759, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645752280971 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1645671659059 | 0 | 3 | 1715658381956 | 0 | 1645749592686 | 0.1250124996875 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9963717735368236 | w4A4DfCF4W1jdoTDeSnp | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9963717735368236 | will-this-market-have-at-least-m314 | 55026.41617570709 | {"NO": 1626.0190680955595, "YES": 38171.56475619736} | Will this market have at least M$31,415 invested into it by Pi Day (March 14th)? | 1646531981211 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1510.2, "YES": 38585.8} | 0 | 4.616376070166397 | True | play | YES | public | 1645673223843 | Athena | This market will resolve to YES if $31,415 or more is invested into this market by 3:14 am EST on March 14th, 2022 - also known as 'Pi Day'.
Feb 24, 5:55pm: Forgot to specify - the market will resolve YES if the pool size reaches $31,415 at any point before/at 3:14am on March 14th. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2285.402303442471, "YES": 39731.91027572435} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1646531981211 | 100 | Athena | 1645673223843 | 0 | 53 | 1715658864210 | 0 | 1646476384675 | 0.9963717735368236 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06286876941124767 | IhgQHfP0PzPHd09FKmZ9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.05 | how-many-dau-will-manifold-markets | 439.24703675107526 | {"NO": 291.7529632489248, "YES": 61} | How many DAU will Manifold Markets have in the week ending Apr 1? | 1648882740000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 298, "YES": 61} | 0 | 8.734726558587777 | True | play | MKT | public | 1645674279294 | Austin | This market resolves to the 7-day average of DAU from Mar 26 to Apr 1; each 100 DAU = 1%.
The source of truth will be http://manifold.markets/analytics . Note that this DAU (and the final count) includes visitors who do not have accounts.
Today, we're averaging around 500 = 5%; our somewhat ambitious target is a 10x increase to 5k DAU. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 341.4853740969882, "YES": 88.44827791236985} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1650878456708 | 100 | Austin | 1645674279294 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 11 | 1650313890392 | 0 | 1 | 1650878433974 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7898111250434741 | p7e8L3gSNr2F538WXWtr | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7898111250434741 | will-the-sp-500-close-down-3-or-mor | 513 | {"NO": 142, "YES": 291} | Will the S&P 500 close down 3% or more today from yesterday's close? | 1645714800000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 142, "YES": 291} | 0 | 4.724279796961786 | True | play | NO | public | 1645674366358 | SG | Resolves YES if the S&P 500 Index closes down 3% or more on Feb 24, 2022 compared to the previous day's closing price (4,225.50). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 198.51519841185964, "YES": 384.81369778179675} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645739889057 | 100 | SG | 1645674366358 | 0 | 7 | 1715658698687 | 0 | 1 | 1645676353822 | 0.7898111250434741 |
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