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QZ6PxFmHzeOe5Ufnkl4z | what-will-be-true-about-open-ais-an | 0 | What will be true about Open AI's announcement at 10am PT on Monday? | 1715364130917 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1715364121410 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F1XsryyGATg.png?alt=media&token=a62f23b5-b83c-4aa5-8f73-bd4b4c610197", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715364130917 | 100 | strutheo | 1720053161621 | 0 | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "e97d9463862c", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Chinese language GPT", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 50, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'chines':1 'gpt':3 'languag':2", "contractId": "QZ6PxFmHzeOe5Ufnkl4z", "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "... | 0.25 | 1700846926650 | True | 0 | 0.25 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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l8cVjGhz3Rcif6EVpDHl | what-names-on-epsteins-guest-list-w-e8c6720579fb | 111.4804555984861 | What names on Epstein‘s guest list will lead to indictments in 2024? | 1735649940000 | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715386966747 | Daniel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be both on an Epstein list + have an", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "indictment related to Epstein. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On a list means:", "t... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2650814570178646, "platformFee": 1.2650814570178646, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Daniel_MC | 1715447003381 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f0113b434227", "prob": 0.2243908153794921, "text": "Tom Pritzker", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.446865947046309, "userId": "HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 46.47923184935783, "textFts": "'pritzker':2 'tom':1", "contractId": "l8cVjGhz3Rcif6EVpDHl", "createdTime": 1715386966747, "probChan... | 0.25 | 1678868464369 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1715386967286}, {"name": "jeffrey epstein", "slug": "jeffrey-epstein", "groupId": "5000914a-a4a9-4db4-a3d6-cebd84ac4f47", "createdTime": 1715386967288}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": ... | ["us-politics", "jeffrey-epstein", "politics-default", "sex-and-love"] | 0.25 | 1715406292622 | False | liquidity | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7ALoHdAJGoMB1XHAGn1W | which-country-do-i-come-from | 11906.855361426404 | Which country do I come from? | 1716039975636 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 1c5b8110db57 | public | 1715387567542 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I googled the top 5 countries with the largest population. and added them to this market. That doesn't necessarily mean that I co... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.546895805595172, "platformFee": 8.546895805595172, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716039979991 | 200 | Base | 1716039975636 | 0 | 21 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b9e068deb891", "prob": 1.8499426641336785e-05, "text": "China", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.14573395579827775, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7877.609540504258, "textFts": "'china':1", "contractId": "7ALoHdAJGoMB1XHAGn1W", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "creat... | 1 | 0.25 | 1690298751650 | 0 | [{"name": "Countries", "slug": "countries", "groupId": "a1e163f9-2253-4198-9f97-2dc415945680", "createdTime": 1715387587270}, {"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1715387591604}, {"name": "United States", "slug": "united-states", "groupId": "5ba769e7-dd37-49d0-bdf2-9... | ["countries", "china", "united-states", "india", "manifold-users"] | 0.25 | 1716039972702 | 1715393040103 | {"1c5b8110db57": 100} | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TWmhuqabYOVMC8Qcsy1U | are-commas-silent-in-english | 0 | Are commas silent in English? | mNXjNPfBbtekIY95wgZ0MVNaBLv2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1715388664170 | MollTheCoder | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | MollTheCoder | 1715388665283 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLpEVFCfGACsuM3opvPe4ewcy8-iVkAJDqtM4lTNdJPcA9l_w=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.25 | 1713172479040 | 0 | [{"name": "Language", "slug": "language", "groupId": "tegXqevnSJSDlHW3Kbel", "createdTime": 1715388665283}] | ["language"] | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zaC7rFppSNmqgYGhmz4X | which-football-club-am-i-a-fan-of | 10326.959143990467 | Which football club am I a fan of? | 1716040003122 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | d16a7d3268c7 | public | 1715388757848 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I googled the top 10 football clubs with the most members. And added them to this market. That doesn't necessarily mean that Im a... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.915497293003614, "platformFee": 4.915497293003614, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716040007577 | 275 | Base | 1716040003122 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "8810791a4cd8", "prob": 0.00016074898866852877, "text": "Bayern Munich", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5513301359028446, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3429.206707345196, "textFts": "'bayern':1 'munich':2", "contractId": "zaC7rFppSNmqgYGhmz4X", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsd... | 1 | 0.25 | 1690298751650 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715388758273}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715388758302}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "cre... | ["football", "sports-default", "manifold-users", "soccer"] | 0.25 | 1716040002774 | 1715412759125 | {"d16a7d3268c7": 100} | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | UivbrdtPtb1rBgnSm6nT | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-the-1-week-running-average-of | 0 | Will the 1 week running average of Wisconsin polls be Democrat biased by more than +2% by the 2024 election | 1735707540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715389334658 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1715400324831 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ReBVrjxj2BEuAyn9vAY4 | how-much-will-i-get-on-my-sat-test | 43 | How much will I get on my SAT test? | 1724601540000 | 3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715391422250 | Bohaska | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Taking the digital SAT on August 25th, in Macau.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I did a practice test at home in February without any prior test prep, where I got 1470.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8969712799126887, "platformFee": 0.8969712799126887, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 175 | bohaska | 1715466014347 | 0 | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "7b56bbf87897", "prob": 0.0736969248542511, "text": "<1300", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.075823659415029, "userId": "3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 126.64390622540418, "textFts": "'1300':1", "contractId": "ReBVrjxj2BEuAyn9vAY4", "createdTime": 1715391422250, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "... | 0.25 | 1692081472895 | 0 | [{"name": "College Admissions", "slug": "college-admissions", "groupId": "1dyUqp3vyXcGeRwiCl3S", "createdTime": 1715391422638}, {"name": "SAT", "slug": "sat", "groupId": "523bda5c-669b-4cb3-8745-b9dee9ed2360", "createdTime": 1715391422733}] | ["college-admissions", "sat"] | 0.25 | 1715466010828 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | wYoDt9efm04Mh3npWa5b | {"NO": 106.61573331355422, "YES": 67.4679848187708} | 0.20461240409314346 | will-the-base-rate-times-news-throu | 7 | Will "The Base Rate Times, news through prediction ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715393263991 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1921333432228964, "platformFee": 0.1921333432228964, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | LessWrong | 1715399255494 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1715393264305}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1715399252244 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33268252858310476 | NymYnuImSGw46GQSruK5 | {"NO": 975.378424014431, "YES": 1004.752672454285} | 0.32612840329731996 | will-an-optimus-robot-walk-on-mars | 1452.8031328050652 | Will an Optimus robot walk on Mars before a human? | 2556104340000 | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.599858943789947 | False | basic | public | 1715393737569 | Daniel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if any humanoid robot built by an Elon Musk company takes a step on Mars before a human does. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.823312740793305, "platformFee": 17.518700258819916, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Daniel_MC | 1717238009528 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | 27 | 0 | 0.25 | 1678868464369 | 0 | [{"name": "Robotics", "slug": "robotics", "groupId": "w6Q4c8YIK0W5GMslvGbd", "createdTime": 1715393737870}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1715393737876}, {"name": "Mars", "slug": "mars", "groupId": "3d6624c3-2569-4fe1-8524-128952b07684", "createdTime": 171539373... | ["robotics", "space", "mars", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717238006399 | 1715447772825 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RlWKH17Td3mcoP7XSIcL | which-states-will-be-the-next-to-le | 84.29906038374348 | Which state will be the next to legalize and regulate online poker? | 1830315540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715393739908 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market open until next one happens, resolves 50% if two happen same time", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.pokernews.com/us-poker-map/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "a... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.32507793956582, "platformFee": 1.32507793956582, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 150 | strutheo | 1715527565832 | 0 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "36b783307d7d", "prob": 0.042894526462498576, "text": "Arkansas", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.2699443489086235, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 139.90125430950883, "textFts": "'arkansa':1", "contractId": "RlWKH17Td3mcoP7XSIcL", "createdTime": 1715393739908, "probChanges": {"da... | 0.25 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H", "createdTime": 1715393740288}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1715393740284}, {"name": "Poker", "slug": "poker", "groupId": "kpUuJYWzvqtBO3Be0Xsx", "createdTime": 1715393740276}, {"nam... | ["gambling", "gaming", "poker", "united-states", "law-order"] | 0.25 | False | 1715527562560 | 1715393780561 | True | prob-desc | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
riSdgJQvvIjKAn02zwSj | which-country-will-be-next-to-chang | 58 | Which country will be next to change its national flag? | 1924963140000 | 2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715394289628 | Josh Wilkes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the most recent flag according to this page, EXCLUDING new countries, which would slightly change the thrust of the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Currently it's Kyrgyzstan)", "type": "text"}... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9329783946938714, "platformFee": 0.9329783946938714, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 350 | JoshuaWilkes | 1715399115001 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "76c61265531a", "prob": 0.03941126177978668, "text": "Australia", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.872762850199734, "userId": "2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 216.25991368720594, "textFts": "'australia':1", "contractId": "riSdgJQvvIjKAn02zwSj", "createdTime": 1715394289629, "probChanges": {"d... | 0.25 | 1662006482315 | 0 | [{"name": "Flags", "slug": "flags", "groupId": "nmVSnG0GVO4CMyHznoIj", "createdTime": 1715394290076}] | ["flags"] | 0.25 | 1715399111677 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
a0sdmOfxP15unjiIu7YV | when-will-the-ability-to-p2p-transf | 2038.4907153607505 | The New Deal: When Will The Ability To P2P Transfer Managrams "Officially" Cease To Exist? | 1722484740000 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1715395181366 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "When Will The Ability To P2P Transfer Managrams \"Officially\" Cease To Exist?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RESOLUTION", "type": "text", "m... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.73644470319301, "platformFee": 9.464409713250962, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SirCryptomind | 1719828867005 | 0 | 13 | 2 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "1d1e172eae69", "prob": 0.07, "text": "July 01, 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 27.153692499297946, "userId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 369.82868069188953, "textFts": "'01':2 '2024':3 'juli':1", "contractId": "a0sdmOfxP15unjiIu7YV", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4... | 1 | 0.25 | 1673375788573 | 0 | [{"name": "Manigrams", "slug": "manigrams", "groupId": "169b5f4b-e786-4d5f-95b7-72048552ac98", "createdTime": 1715395181767}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1715395181763}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "g... | ["manigrams", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-users", "pivot-predictions", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1719294905560 | 1719294651709 | False | prob-desc | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RNcOcOPb9QZcFMtR2QfR | should-the-white-house-reconsider-t | 0 | Should the White House reconsider the Death Star petition? | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1715397183488 | Archibald Crone | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After all, maybe what we need to come together as a species is to imagine a common enemy and pour all our resources into destroying it….", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.buzzfeednew... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | BlueDragon | 1715397183871 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1697749128213 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1715397183817}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1715397183819}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96... | ["politics-default", "science-default", "us-politics", "star-wars", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sw2GXkHWrCP1waFKnL7Q | what-score-will-i-get-on-the-ap-lat | 289.6465297647979 | What score will I get on the AP Latin exam in 2024? | 1720421940000 | odt4zAEG2qOGZTewdXFKGeqbHNi2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715397914584 | Geometry Basher | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.02432037842844, "platformFee": 4.02432037842844, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 125 | SyntheticGeo | 1715746005976 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK1juCp2ou45R48050Q2RtEaMiw5xom-RWU54WO4uZvm4E=s96-c | 9 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "e3e8189a43f9", "prob": 0.20147374593891682, "text": "5", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.696927505377774, "userId": "odt4zAEG2qOGZTewdXFKGeqbHNi2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.21360834248797, "textFts": "'5':1", "contractId": "Sw2GXkHWrCP1waFKnL7Q", "createdTime": 1715397914585, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 0.25 | 1703090511913 | 0 | [{"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1715397914976}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.25 | 1715745928350 | 1715746004527 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 6pBgkpy2ReNK2YdZGAFY | {"NO": 131.06283969724888, "YES": 76.29927768313043} | 0.6320481356622669 | will-indonesias-government-announce | 32 | Will Indonesia's government announce intentions to build a hydoelectric damn on the Mamberamo River by the end of 2027? | 1830315540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715399308752 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mamberamo_River", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mamberamo_River", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-4... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.46858015137556885, "platformFee": 0.46858015137556885, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1715469762983 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Environment", "slug": "environment-243810591da2", "groupId": "b31ce04a-9c58-4318-988e-28474c7761f2", "createdTime": 1715399309063}, {"name": "Rivers, drought and flooding", "slug": "rivers-drought-and-flooding", "groupId": "tj6KM6tPPAvI93mWO7oz", "createdTime": 1715399309070}, {"name": "Energy", "slug": "ene... | ["environment-243810591da2", "rivers-drought-and-flooding", "energy", "indonesia", "world-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715469759675 | 1715399358176 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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wbrXztFhjMLyX6lGYWjI | bigger-content-demon-ybg-or-jason-0390f12479d6 | 0 | Bigger content demon, YBG or Jason? | 1716091140000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1715400480479 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will not in fact get any voters that watch either streamer but i said id make it so", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716091141263 | Bayesian | 1715457594527 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "jasontheween", "slug": "jasontheween", "groupId": "0d39aa2b-1447-4298-bc60-5ef67d9cea4f", "createdTime": 1715400480772}] | ["jasontheween"] | 0.25 | ["af6dd6e580f9"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
m5qGktrbosquUMGgzlqA | will-home-team-win-may-13-2024-matc | 4716.4260601266315 | Will home team win? (May 13, 2024 matches) ⚽🏟️ | 1715652230826 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1715401260781 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Will home team win? (May 13, 2024 matches)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market includes the main football matches taking place on Monday, May 13, 2024. The matches featured in this mar... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.844662844982892, "platformFee": 20.844662844982892, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715652230826 | 475 | FranklinBaldo | 1715692797997 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 18 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "150048f4a90c", "prob": 0.01, "text": "19:00 - Aston Villa vs Liverpool - Premier League 🇬🇧", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.78867783610415, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 926.8976376822706, "textFts": "'00':2 '19':1 'aston':3 'leagu':8 'liverpool':6 'premier':7 'villa':4 'vs... | 0.25 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1715401261235}] | ["soccer"] | 0.25 | 1715648628732 | 1715652232770 | 0.01 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | False | alphabetical | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7327554732723695 | qzGWP1LVXO8uEhshQHw3 | {"NO": 620.7125449952455, "YES": 1169.107673426786} | 0.5927921283864036 | will-an-llms-context-window-reach-2 | 1391.053999880894 | Will an LLM have a context window of 20M or more in 2024? | 1735718340000 | oSyhdaaBLYgR3tLXoGgKJzDTxtL2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.193726494960622 | False | basic | public | 1715403294114 | Hazel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to Yes on or before Dec 31, 2024 if a widely available LLM in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Top 15 overall has a widely available context window of 20 million tokens or more. This can be via API, open source, web, app or other interface.", "type": "... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.067599430916926, "month": -0.16114524203632719} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.028241420195418, "platformFee": 5.749812299373466, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Hazel | 1720055923513 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 0.25 | 1715372605659 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715403294708}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1715403294717}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9... | ["technology-default", "technical-ai-timelines", "openai", "llms", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720055920412 | 1715415903811 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999985 | JJIrknQlSN1AAeshbTKo | {"NO": 668.444947751472, "YES": 14.960095118735154} | 1 | will-g2-defeat-psg-talon-on-may-12t | 1027.7348814407028 | Will G2 defeat PSG Talon on May 12th? | 1715496064871 | wKIi82LOmqWZqGIvPjtgH9s44tu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1715404959666 | Ayrtonite | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.640764272705784, "platformFee": 3.640764272705784, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715496064871 | 100 | Ayrtonite | 1715496064871 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.25 | 1699723035478 | 0 | [{"name": "Esports", "slug": "esports", "groupId": "XmzXsWcpvMK0PSBDNpVc", "createdTime": 1715404960277}, {"name": "MSI 2024", "slug": "msi-2024", "groupId": "a5f542e1-2f04-48a0-ac9d-f813fd47b9c9", "createdTime": 1715404960273}, {"name": "League of Legends", "slug": "league-of-legends", "groupId": "0SkUfk47dKNXXscUS87T... | ["esports", "msi-2024", "league-of-legends"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715494215014 | 0.98 | wKIi82LOmqWZqGIvPjtgH9s44tu2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | lT9irMPZzga0d4xUeZVm | {"NO": 42.008402520840555, "YES": 238.0476142847601} | 0 | will-t1-defeat-blg-on-may-12th | 270.3390775131979 | Will T1 defeat BLG on May 12th? | 1715506218328 | wKIi82LOmqWZqGIvPjtgH9s44tu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715405039327 | Ayrtonite | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9473382267480503, "platformFee": 2.9473382267480503, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715506218328 | 100 | Ayrtonite | 1715506218328 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 1699723035478 | 0 | [{"name": "Esports", "slug": "esports", "groupId": "XmzXsWcpvMK0PSBDNpVc", "createdTime": 1715405039822}, {"name": "MSI 2024", "slug": "msi-2024", "groupId": "a5f542e1-2f04-48a0-ac9d-f813fd47b9c9", "createdTime": 1715405039831}, {"name": "League of Legends", "slug": "league-of-legends", "groupId": "0SkUfk47dKNXXscUS87T... | ["esports", "msi-2024", "league-of-legends"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715506211326 | 0.33 | wKIi82LOmqWZqGIvPjtgH9s44tu2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000007 | FpwAGpqzw3vdgCf59iUT | {"NO": 994.9874371066192, "YES": 10.050378152592145} | 1 | will-jalen-brunson-drop-40-points-a | 1296.0978666580986 | Will jalen brunson drop 40+ points against pacers in games 4-7 of Knicks vs pacers series | 1716172766223 | 10KnkS5ivLOZIHTQ7hZKey77YJF2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | YES | public | 1715405811107 | Cristian Pena | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.241177771329178, "platformFee": 7.241177771329178, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716172766223 | 1000 | CristianPena | 1716172766223 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.25 | 1715191763685 | 0 | [{"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1715405811420}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1715405811422}] | ["nba", "basketball"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715747814105 | 0.99 | 10KnkS5ivLOZIHTQ7hZKey77YJF2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.14 | gwLleIdMqmgSpYVYJ8pl | {"NO": 102.29389528385339, "YES": 86.99506124876721} | 0.16066461430530934 | will-deep-honesty-make-the-top-fift | 40 | Will "Deep Honesty" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715406211251 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.47277597881660527, "platformFee": 0.47277597881660527, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | LessWrong | 1715503807294 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1715406211549}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1715503804069 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.397252084070916 | yfuoSMrQQPBwU8Q39Vy1 | {"NO": 46.40878305990918, "YES": 3028.0695211883512} | 0 | will-the-nba-finals-mvp-average-30 | 3191.7675995920363 | Will the NBA Finals MVP average 30 points per game or more in the 2024 playoffs? | 1718911518126 | FTnclyJHcxW8T3n3Dgh9VWQa0YF2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715447627452 | Max Scialabba | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve based on Basketball Reference’s listed PPG. As of 5/11/24, we have the following (still in playoffs):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jalen Brunson (NYK): 34.6", "type": "text"}]}... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.290995568043565} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.30762758619614, "platformFee": 3.029552544096352, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718911518126 | 250 | MaxScialabba62d5 | 1718911518126 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.25 | 1713909668455 | 0 | [{"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1715447628269}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715447628270}, {"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId"... | ["20232024-nba-season", "sports-default", "nba-playoffs", "basketball", "nba"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718811716048 | 1718911090737 | 0.01 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5748236862658647 | Q0CYyUZx31Es0MHKIhv7 | {"NO": 1103.5316044255526, "YES": 15.070066686949195} | 1 | will-the-sun-set-on-may-11-2024-in | 1045.1032453908078 | Will the sun set on May 11, 2024 in California? | 1715495286505 | oSyhdaaBLYgR3tLXoGgKJzDTxtL2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1715448438432 | Hazel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves when or if humans in California observe the sun being down (I.e. twilight, night time, definitely not behind clouds, etc). ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9018652706977694, "platformFee": 2.9018652706977694, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715495286505 | 107 | Hazel | 1715688493415 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.25 | 1715372605659 | 0 | [{"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1715448438657}, {"name": "🏄 California", "slug": "california", "groupId": "72sPPf5PTwnQQWGdZ5cR", "createdTime": 1715448438667}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "... | ["space", "california", "nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1715472458347 | 0.99 | oSyhdaaBLYgR3tLXoGgKJzDTxtL2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1xP5i1bpkAQnpXJqVCTB | how-exciting-do-you-expect-openais | 0 | How exciting do you expect OpenAI's event on Monday to be? [Poll] | 1715616000000 | 8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1715449260351 | Manifold AI | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1788989777452408943"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This poll is to measure the expectations for OpenAI's event on Monday. A second poll will be run after the event to see if it lived up to expectations. ",... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715616000913 | ManifoldAI | 1715457500464 | 0 | 77 | 0 | 0.25 | 1711068181629 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715449260662}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715449260668}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 17154492... | ["ai", "openai", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1715457498933 | ["adeca9a87e1b"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4517302602036118 | oHxhRLnQ1aWztY9bdzqQ | {"NO": 3860.1693803266403, "YES": 239.3901957344036} | 1 | will-openais-event-on-monday-exceed | 5558.882985473835 | Will OpenAI's event on Monday exceed Manifold's expectations? | 1715756340000 | 8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.52338268782627 | True | basic | YES | public | 1715449564978 | Manifold AI | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A poll is now being conducted to measure Manifold's expectations for OpenAI's event on Monday, 5/13:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldAI/how-exciting-do-you-expe... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 51.80094874808918, "platformFee": 51.80094874808918, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715896498785 | 1100 | ManifoldAI | 1715756340000 | 0 | 63 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1711068181629 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715449565290}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715449565293}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 17154495... | ["ai", "technology-default", "openai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715754800215 | 1715896495098 | 0.93 | 8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3RSv4gXuKBe9yV1Os0mN | is-trumps-hush-money-trial-good-for | 0 | Is Trump's hush money trial good for the country? | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1715450932814 | Daniel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/if-trump-is-convicted-in-the-hush-m", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Daniel_MC | 1715450933155 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.25 | 1678868464369 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1715450933151}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1715450933168}, {"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial... | ["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "trial-of-the-century", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 9NdW4m7p5BnIbJAGTzEA | {"NO": 10.050378152592145, "YES": 994.9874371066212} | 0 | will-estonia-win-eurovision-2024 | 1840.1770427604513 | Will Estonia win Eurovision 2024 | 1715491276299 | um7Vlmge55Rev7Nec3dHaxMc87h2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715451322829 | SweatyFish | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.220475324502605, "platformFee": 4.220475324502605, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715491276299 | 100 | SweatyFish | 1715491276299 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.25 | 1692817858775 | 0 | [{"name": "Eurovision 2024", "slug": "eurovision-2024", "groupId": "87b109d4-3c32-4ca8-8def-011441598cce", "createdTime": 1715451323163}, {"name": "Eurovision", "slug": "eurovision", "groupId": "95790331-924d-48fb-aeeb-6fdc81692d9e", "createdTime": 1715451323171}, {"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "groupId": "ue52QI... | ["eurovision-2024", "eurovision", "europe"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715465397883 | 1715468846936 | 0.01 | um7Vlmge55Rev7Nec3dHaxMc87h2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | gbchlpZJDyXiI1whQ1Jk | {"NO": 108.30793466553736, "YES": 92.32933885112587} | 0 | will-the-sp-stock-index-close-highe-8408da5a7510 | 23.01546902673862 | Will the S&P stock index close higher on May 13 than it closed on May 10? | 1715630579956 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715452772224 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3382981538620112, "platformFee": 0.3382981538620112, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715630579956 | 100 | JimFix | 1715630579956 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1696775041650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715612712381 | 0.54 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000024 | MIRk4YkhbmrTNIw98EXn | {"NO": 889.2220832755232, "YES": 11.245784588664563} | 1 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-89aa2b4b1460 | 875.2680666711688 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on May 17 than it closed on May 10? | 1715976275135 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1715453110882 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.01768877050652, "platformFee": 3.01768877050652, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715976275135 | 100 | JimFix | 1715976275135 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1696775041650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715956940449 | 0.99 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 |
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