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0.20069374866553152 | 7ZqoN8KgkCFafzXjqf7Q | {"NO": 846.1704606660307, "YES": 1539.4045583705838} | 0.12127682235268528 | will-replies-to-ten-wellengineered | 2129.078225491755 | Will GPT-4 be more competent than me in my area of expertise? | 1690844340000 | EWQ8opj5cZg46jsjlXCJsAk2Xpj2 | cpmm-1 | 0.006478941824666611 | 0.6353189875775778 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1670958485850 | Eli but Chad | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will replies to ten well-engineered GPT-4 prompts in my area of expertise outperform my own answers to them?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Example of what I mean by a well-engineered prompt:", "type": "t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1698561289610 | 970 | elibutchad | 1718900818095 | 1.1 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Felibutchad%2F2pSRjKONzf.15?alt=media&token=84d5a63c-36b7-46e7-9758-3d2e1ce647c3 | 3 | 49 | 0 | 18 | 25 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "EWQ8opj5cZg46jsjlXCJsAk2Xpj2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670958486588}, {"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "userId": "NyPB2flsw6P3H4ScNKjzyilepXH2", "groupId": "SWiC5KtQnc48oWmaoAZA", "createdTime": 1671200930049}] | ["ai", "gpt4-speculation"] | 0.12027889237640217 | 0.5 | 1690771528073 | 1718900816950 | 0.12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.29665825369026866 | lDPdSpqvOqHRJFgu693e | {"NO": 1414.1290023856734, "YES": 4670.340616976313} | 0.11324849711356855 | will-anyone-be-at-least-150-years-o | 27752.80935604674 | Will anyone be at least 150 years old by 2072? | 3218842800000 | 4UrkF8yHd2PKzmgXB77GGkNRgXO2 | cpmm-1 | 0.060149412587794306 | 8.25562254688492 | False | basic | public | 1670961511075 | Gustavo Mafra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In other words, someone that is now 100 years old will live 50 years more", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For cases of cryogenic or similar reanimation the \"age counter\" will pause while the... | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5224272340821049, "platformFee": 0.5224272340821049, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2030 | GustavoMafra | 1715706738218 | 1.2 | 4 | 150 | 0 | 44 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "4UrkF8yHd2PKzmgXB77GGkNRgXO2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1670961511605}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1673303589531}] | ["science-default", "futurism"] | 0.17675445509909815 | 0.5 | 1715706734791 | 1692994645478 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.3241407845355306 | jFprAXMTNi0gXmmR4nQX | {"NO": 847.5199693327087, "YES": 1326.160929029892} | 0.23459652711211715 | will-there-be-a-notable-bookburning | 2493.96012541134 | Will there be a notable book-burning event on a US college campus before 2030? | 1893484800000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.644597378068827 | False | basic | public | 1670964503103 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be intentional. An accidental library fire doesn't count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A single person burning a few of their own books doesn't count. Must involve several people and a... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0823245152788326, "platformFee": 1.0823245152788326, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IsaacKing | 1716319099805 | 0 | 2 | 41 | 0 | 29 | [{"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1670967520588}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1670964503520}, {"name": "Culture", "... | ["us-politics", "books", "culture-default"] | 0.10832892055133755 | 0.5 | 1716319096528 | 1708125902193 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5534276532232877 | c4tnOjgWOCqLTVoT16WG | {"NO": 79.44192968269975, "YES": 1083.6591083506291} | 0 | will-another-destiny-clip-get-5k-up | 1941.3822899325517 | Will another Destiny clip get >5k Upvotes on r/LivestreamFail before the end of 2022? | 1672531140000 | qsZ6uslaYzR5byYFkRhpYcswZd83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.669979811144811 | True | play | NO | public | 1671032541336 | adarg | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has to be a clip from Destiny's stream specifically, can't just be a clip he's in.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672687480588 | 350 | adarg | 1672687477372 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0RqS4vX3B0PI1Gj9XT_wK-eFWUXyWlVv_UG5X5=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672617262549}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1672529031247 | 1672687472402 | 0.08 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.22442577592135093 | AmAvEHtmiVfbDOcrqNQR | {"NO": 380.8032608694775, "YES": 3300.988081346976} | 0 | will-bitcoin-close-the-year-above-1-61bdf637dd3e | 6230.931857930063 | Will Bitcoin close the year above $18,000? | 1672531140000 | FEjxVPee2Ea629lFxmpnbbAoYfl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0774663490850451 | True | play | NO | public | 1671034331988 | tofu | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672552329681 | 690 | tofu | 1672502194614 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 30 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "FEjxVPee2Ea629lFxmpnbbAoYfl2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1671034345383}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "FEjxVPee2Ea629lFxmpnbbAoYfl2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1671034342718}, {"n... | ["bitcoin", "crypto-speculation", "global-macro", "economics-default", "crypto-prices"] | 0.5 | 1672502194492 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6154030345168852 | 5X7cNX78HEToZmuxUDeR | {"NO": 199.99999999999994, "YES": 121.91697516860052} | 0.05 | will-a-government-space-agency-comm | 50 | Will a government space agency commence a crewed mission outside of the Earth-Moon system before 2030? [Quick Resolution via Metaculus] | 1677798000000 | 4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.216239578489837 | True | play | MKT | public | 1671034688182 | Johnny Ten-Numbers | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The following Metaculus forecast is set to open soon:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13897/crewed-mission-beyond-earth-moon-system/", "type": "text", "mark... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677846539523 | 150 | 1941159478 | 1677786446236 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1671034962427}, {"name": "Reciprocal Scoring", "slug": "reciprocal-scoring", "userId": "4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2", "groupId": "UMd7vY9c0A6xqcv9dC17", "createdTime": 1671034688398}, {"name"... | ["reciprocal-scoring", "space", "futurism"] | 0.5 | 1677786446136 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3448525653562737 | OCwc7OgSiViUAKvcXEiM | {"NO": 210.40952717479405, "YES": 332.26230334437827} | 0.01 | more-than-100-toilets-in-space-by-2 | 255.70586457372184 | More than 100 toilets in space by 2030? [Early Resolution via Metaculus] | 1677798000000 | 4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5291458021593551 | True | play | MKT | public | 1671034937536 | Johnny Ten-Numbers | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The following Metaculus forecast will open soon:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13912/no-of-toilets-in-space-by-2030/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677846315767 | 250 | 1941159478 | 1677797208682 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1671034951075}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1671034947581}, {"name": "Recip... | ["reciprocal-scoring", "technology-default", "space", "futurism"] | 0.5 | 1677797207512 | 1671030470357 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48428516225020346 | xPoTWNTUnfMwUNuSdDNu | {"NO": 285.4252344404732, "YES": 289.3249708019555} | 0.81 | will-nuclear-power-be-used-for-prop | 395.1704740982345 | Will nuclear power be used for propulsion in space in a non-test capacity by 2036? [Early Resolution via Metaculus] | 1683410400000 | 4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.195863481422771 | True | play | MKT | public | 1671035456373 | Johnny Ten-Numbers | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The following Metaculus forecast will open soon:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13914/nuclear-power-usage-in-space/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "l... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1683490624594 | 290 | 1941159478 | 1683399592580 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1671035924079}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1671035921200}, {"name": "Recip... | ["reciprocal-scoring", "technology-default", "space", "futurism", "nuclear"] | 0.5 | 1683399591434 | 1682012059527 | False | 0.81 |
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