CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.554145909866665

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{"NO": 123.57853376375678, "YES": 1028.8755062521495}

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will-the-up-arrow-on-this-question-850f1c4e7fb0

158616.5564404716

Will the up arrow on this question be hit more times than the down arrow?

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cpmm-1

0

1.2779494659419255

True

play

YES

public

1656043415776

Predictor 🔥

Will the up arrow on this question be hit more times than the down arrow before market close? Counted by number of $10 bets yes (up arrow) or $10 bets no (down arrow). Bet amounts other than $10 and selling are not included in the final tally.

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False

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0

will-a-french-rider-wear-the-yellow

1492.271820951377

Will a French rider wear the yellow jersey at the 2022 Tour de France?

1658656800000

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-1

0

5.080194355132863

True

play

NO

public

1656044003347

JAAM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tour_de_France Will a French rider be the leader of the general classification at the 2022 Tour de France?

BINARY

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egroj

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will-onions-trade-over-184-on-8-jul

125

Will onions trade over 18.4$ on 8. july ?

1656626340000

Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1

cpmm-1

0

2.791459966341351

True

play

NO

public

1656071888874

Tim P

https://www.marketnews.usda.gov/mnp/fv-report-top-filters?locName=&commAbr=ONS&commName=ONIONS%20DRY&className=ONIONS%20AND%20POTATOES&rowDisplayMax=25&startIndex=1&navClass=ONIONS%20AND%20POTATOES&navType=byComm&repType=termPriceDaily&type=termPrice " Location : ATLANTA Commodity : ONIONS DRY Package: 25 lb sacks...

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TimP

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planecrashrot13-jvyy-cvyne-pbafhzr

421.09915497062343

[planecrash][ROT13] Jvyy Cvyne pbafhzr Pnlqra Pnvyrna?

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cpmm-1

0

2.272978263717145

True

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CANCEL

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1656079259397

Asquil

This question resolves YES if Cayden Cailean dies and Pilar siphoning off oracle levels from him was clearly an important component of that This question resolves NO if Cayden Cailean dies by some other means that clearly wasn't the above This question resolves N/A if Cayden Cailean doesn't die by the deadline, or hi...

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Asquil

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will-i-get-lost-at-some-point-on-th

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Will I get lost at some point on the Mexifold trip?

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5.578380507231668

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NO

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1656082424130

Rachael Ng

This is my first time traveling outside of Canada by myself. I've recently flown to Vancouver and Miami within the past 2 months with friends. Lost would mean me not knowing where I am for at least 10 minutes.

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RachaelNg

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will-chile-approve-the-constitution

564.7513840123728

Will Chile approve the Constitution proposed by its Constitutional Convention?

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cpmm-1

0

3.0598437407754058

True

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NO

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1656084962442

Calcifer

This question resolves yes is the official vote count from the national plebiscite gives more than 50% of the votes to the "Approve" option.

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100

Calcifer

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0

https://firebasestorage.…184-cf7ef44c78f6

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1

will-the-new-manuscript-of-my-equil

101.4563019590639

Will the new manuscript of my "equilibrium existence" paper, currently R&R on RAND, get accepted for publication at RAND?

1672552740000

BJ7ktOmZBMSrqxhu614KsFcpQap2

cpmm-1

0

2.4962156934434616

True

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YES

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1656085944905

Calcifer

The question will resolve yes if I get a conditional acceptance by RAND before the end of the year. Here is the current version of the paper: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mkVZspgtTPMef8GjauvaEJphiMrqXGP2/view

BINARY

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Calcifer

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{"NO": 10.326573121956486, "YES": 968.3754602712963}

0

will-i-get-food-poisoning-at-mexifo

3130

Will I get food poisoning at Mexifold?

1656717776691

xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2

cpmm-1

0

4.93399790871627

True

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NO

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1656093597165

Gavriel

While in Mexico City, the Manifold team have been succumbing one by one to food poisoning*. Will I, as the sole representative of 1Day Sooner, prove to have a stronger constitution, demonstrating once and for all that vaccines are cooler and more badass than prediction markets? *and I hope they all get better quickly ...

BINARY

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1656717776691

100

GavrielK

1656718506147

0

https://firebasestorage.…deb-cc3393d3e476

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[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529434644}]

["mexifolk"]

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{"NO": 645.778480319395, "YES": 54.42518227072021}

1

tutbad-at-the-end-of-this-used-to-b-1085e1b7a617

1192.4992718458348

[TUTBAD] At the end of This Used To Be About Dungeons, will Alfric/Mizuki be together?

1704088740000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

3.6223571293287433

True

play

YES

public

1656101156631

Austin

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BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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Austin

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0.9728541331019953

will-the-us-government-expierence-s

500

Will the US government expierence significant, large scale decline by 2050?

1656103318604

ABJi7ln9I3gYIlBUqBKsd9SP7od2

cpmm-1

0

4.196901771535105

True

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CANCEL

public

1656103246153

Easys

This question resolves to YES if at least one of the following conditions occurs before January 1st, 2050: 1. A current state or states secedes from the US, or otherwise leaves or is removed from being under the authority of the US federal government. 2. A single party maintains a majority in both houses of congress, a...

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1656103318604

100

Easys

1656103264167

0

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1

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529488274}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181866781}]

["politics-default", "us-politics"]

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False

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{"NO": 1179.6951492087262, "YES": 932.2928003448897}

0.8527055185571017

will-the-us-government-undergo-sign

825.9977454161626

Will the US government undergo significant, large scale decline by 2050?

2524629540000

ABJi7ln9I3gYIlBUqBKsd9SP7od2

cpmm-1

0

9.787007720397712

False

basic

public

1656103488863

Easys

This question resolves to YES if at least one of the following conditions occurs before January 1st, 2050: 1. A current state or states secedes from the US, or otherwise leaves or is removed from being under the authority of the US federal government. 2. A single party maintains a majority in both houses of congress...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1000

Easys

1717619963989

0

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False

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{"NO": 945.6272921065594, "YES": 1066.6565595803775}

0.19999999999999996

will-the-ftc-or-doj-break-up-google

1344.583670259902

Will the FTC or DOJ break up Google, Amazon or Facebook?

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BJ7ktOmZBMSrqxhu614KsFcpQap2

cpmm-1

1.1134812115870938

9.67516944994853

False

basic

public

1656105758622

Calcifer

This question resolves "Yes" if the FTC or DOJ forces Alphabet (Google), Amazon and/or Meta (Facebook), to sell a substantial portion of their business (>20%) by the end of 2024.

BINARY

{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17}

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Calcifer

1708428094803

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["economics-default", "internet"]

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0.5

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{"NO": 245.66546594699497, "YES": 607.5390946341901}

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will-a-major-us-political-figure-be

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Will a major US political figure be assassinated in 2022.

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1.893214535214597

True

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NO

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1656107353943

Easys

This question resolves to YES if at least one of the following are confirmed dead due to some form of voluntary homicide by the end of 2022: the president, vice president, a sitting member of the cabinet, a sitting member of the Federal House of Representatives or Senate, or a sitting Federal Supreme Court Justice. Ot...

BINARY

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Easys

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will-a-us-rider-win-a-stage-at-the

401.1340923421658

Will a US rider win a stage at the 2022 Tour de France?

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cpmm-1

0

3.8523985426602207

True

play

NO

public

1656111378282

JAAM

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tour_de_France

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egroj

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will-there-be-a-serious-attack-on-a

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Will there be a serious attack on a Supreme Court justice or their family before the end of 2022

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cpmm-1

0

1.6784482657506499

True

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NO

public

1656113605824

I no read

By "serious attack", I mean either harm or get stopped in the process of trying to harm any of the justices or their family. Basically, a follow up to the guy with a knife near Brett Kavanaugh's house except them being more successful.

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i_no_read

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1

will-there-be-more-than-100-confirm

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Will there be more than 100 confirmed cases of monkeypox in any U.S. state by the end of July?

1657312098319

8WijWMNV67c7RetI6OG4soOyPt02

cpmm-1

0

5.422377977466013

True

play

YES

public

1656126331582

brainiac256

This question resolves to YES if at least one U.S. state, district, territory, or other region represented by its own row is reported to have more than 100 (>=101) cases of monkeypox as reported by the CDC at this URL https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/us-map.html before July 29, 11:59PM EST, or NO if...

BINARY

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100

brainiac256

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["monkeypox", "science-default", "medicine"]

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1657127851485

1657312222210

0.9955754953812632

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who-will-win-the-most-stages-at-the

387.6546808449261

Who will win the most stages at the 2022 Tour de France?

1658664000000

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.742244835035767

True

play

MKT

public

1656130945915

JAAM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tour_de_France What rider will win the largest number of stages at the 2022 Tour de France?

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1658684994853

560

egroj

1658600356271

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686

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0

ANYONE

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1658600355053

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{"eb83dfe0f171": 50, "f2185a9584e0": 50}

True

U0fZzBombs9z5TcE7pvl

which-rider-will-be-on-pole-positio

40

Which rider will be on pole position in the 2022 MotoGP Dutch Grand Prix?

1656161280000

ZLq88UqSFxQ58axdhhcCxcepJBJ3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.919565222634214

True

play

5bd5ccacf9a9

public

1656141642280

Leo

Close date updated to 2022-06-25 2:42 pm Close date updated to 2022-06-25 2:48 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1656161492054

300

Leo

1656160943097

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GivexMI_o1GUS5sHEL83jdVQ0lLGcxebIbBC9qT=s96-c

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ANYONE

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1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529403119}]

["sports-default"]

1656160941708

{"5bd5ccacf9a9": 100}

True

10vf2uOMoVzae1nafNz9

how-many-papers-will-max-have-accep

2

How many papers will Max have accepted in journals with an impact factor > 6 by the end of his PhD?

1656170011489

gRf4OtdbjffrLzrTOW2J368B1lF2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.012422314310263

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656164367742

M

I will choose the answer according to the number of my papers accepted in journals with an impact factor > 6 in the scimago database.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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1656170011489

260

MM42

1656164421594

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https://firebasestorage.…6b9-6d09788609ee

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ANYONE

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1656164421425

True

0.5730582548945302

wqaUpIOtcobZ0uoAtIgI

{"NO": 249.58397001200427, "YES": 63.557047991970585}

0.8405327463803448

will-max-have-more-than-6-papers-ac

290.8865456092577

Will Max have more than 6 papers accepted in journals with IF > 5 by the end of his PhD?

1751410740000

gRf4OtdbjffrLzrTOW2J368B1lF2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1656165095511

M

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

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0

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120

MM42

1682359994678

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b9-6d09788609ee

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0

3

[]

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1682359994527

0.6674588017842571

Ma9Dp9XY0s9c8uU6Btv9

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0.8821764065487017

will-max-have-an-hindex-12-by-the-e

352.1129334849783

Will Max have an h-index > 12 by the end of his PhD?

1751410740000

gRf4OtdbjffrLzrTOW2J368B1lF2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1656165368641

M

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

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1684143337168

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https://firebasestorage.…6b9-6d09788609ee

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["ancient-markets"]

0.5

1684143336019

0.4896056776070914

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{"NO": 956.2870443215771, "YES": 1034.443784342504}

0.4699999999999999

will-max-get-a-permanent-position-w

553.0017892151433

Will Max get a permanent position with a research focus at a top 10 university within 5 years of finishing his PhD?

1909144860000

gRf4OtdbjffrLzrTOW2J368B1lF2

cpmm-1

0.06633229147214238

9.59548565320641

False

basic

public

1656165521971

M

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.808119720434672, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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https://firebasestorage.…6b9-6d09788609ee

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0.11727317233785156

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1704175738228

0.5443431214389761

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{"NO": 188.2995193061788, "YES": 79.4178761842302}

0.7390718611713055

will-max-get-a-permanent-position-w-94177b36c843

119.27422929611146

Will Max get a permanent position with a research focus at a university within 5 years of finishing his PhD?

1909177140000

gRf4OtdbjffrLzrTOW2J368B1lF2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1656165650705

M

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.7320182746894655, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

MM42

1683732996812

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b9-6d09788609ee

4

0

4

[{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736859437}]

["ancient-markets"]

0.5

1683732996665

0.6914615954094627

HpID0uqDHcPlL7RgSbGR

{"NO": 336.89841075863603, "YES": 190.71505891279574}

0.7983417361430337

will-max-have-more-than-15-papers-a

494.0319597420948

Will Max have more than 15 papers accepted in journals with IF > 2 by the end of his PhD?

1751410740000

gRf4OtdbjffrLzrTOW2J368B1lF2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1656165786823

M

Based on scimago rankings; commentaries count for half a paper; at the time of writing this question (25th of July, 2022) I have 4.5 papers accepted in IF > 2 journals. Jun 25, 5:16pm: My google scholar for reference: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=JInh9X8AAAAJ&hl=en

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 2.6716954818333596, "platformFee": 0.2364074041995025, "liquidityFee": 0}

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240

MM42

1713904817335

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[]

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1713904813646

0.7049757675478446

qjxIT8332k9icyD6CJM9

{"NO": 816.8565910002658, "YES": 50.160787065405884}

1

will-abortion-be-allowed-after-6-we

798.1088709240803

Will abortion be allowed after 6 weeks a majority of US states by the end of 2022?

1672549140000

K0RuUaKElPTtvwY5nCNm6VZrxUc2

cpmm-1

0

3.838110339570035

True

play

YES

public

1656169187354

Eli Gaultney

Resolves to yes if it's accessible in at least 26 states by end of the year at week 7 or higher of the pregnancy. By "accessible" I will have to use some of my own judgement, but I basically mean that it's within a few hours drive of most people in the state and they don't need parents'/outside doctors' permissions if ...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 2.9635836339592325, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1673108926725

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EliGaultney

1672545142472

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GikNvh2CzJfm0pxKrMLcXDGcegWRjIRoPQ4uRqTNiE=s96-c

7

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529506753}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1672545142373

1656511991384

0.97

0.5

paeIcdwgKAQDmZYDj7OT

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-japanese-tfr-surpass-indian-by

0

Will Japanese TFR surpass Indian by the end of the decade?

1656179365134

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656179274812

Enopoletus Harding

This question resolves to Yes if Japanese TFR surpasses Indian by the end of the decade, No otherwise. They have been converging for a while, and, while the Japanese government is moderately pronatalist, India's remains extremely antinatalist.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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1656179365134

100

EnopoletusHarding

1689437885622

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

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[{"name": "Harding's national questions", "slug": "hardings-national-questions", "groupId": "1VFeQWsYuY13IFQ6J55S", "createdTime": 1658529389954}, {"name": "India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdTime": 1691181102159}]

["hardings-national-questions", "india"]

0.5

1689437883000

False

0.5

0.2686997933183979

Lg7UO1WsUOZ70ckTg7iG

{"NO": 77.17079456971257, "YES": 588.9059350394325}

0

will-neuralink-conduct-human-trials

693.9059860777725

Will Neuralink conduct human trials by the end 2022?

1672556340000

lpHF1E93KqaCLfRvY5RPxkE8zOr2

cpmm-1

0

3.3074823434868224

True

play

NO

public

1656186266368

Kaja Howard

This question resolves to "YES" if Neuralink conducts at least one human trial by the end of 2022. This question resolves to "NO" if Neuralink does not conduct at least one human trial by the end of 2022.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.598215472982622, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1680826744317

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KeresaHoward

1710451917019

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https://firebasestorage.…cb5-f5feff358b3d

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20

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0.5

1671947999841

1680826749759

0.05

0.4999999999999992

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{"NO": 531.9584589839832, "YES": 18.798460351771766}

1

will-more-of-us-get-food-poisoning

599.9593217609807

Will more of us get food poisoning than lose a phone?

1656824340000

0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2

cpmm-1

0

4.031823474794629

True

play

YES

public

1656203601148

Sinclair Chen

Will the number of people at mexifold who get food poisoning be higher than the number of people who lose a phone?

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.786154285589606, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1656890917165

100

Sinclair

1656802725592

0

https://firebasestorage.…05f-2c822e6eeb32

11

0

1

[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529435169}]

["mexifolk"]

0.5

1656802724344

1656267001247

0.9658679542792783

0.5000000000000001

bae1VyiTYiPRfQufhx7g

{"NO": 33.33530449138859, "YES": 299.982260626516}

0

will-peter-sagan-win-a-stage-at-the

262.8507422967075

Will Peter Sagan win a stage at the 2022 Tour de France?

1658664000000

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-1

0

3.347893735461355

True

play

NO

public

1656216744542

JAAM

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.8560583791653205, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1658684918007

100

egroj

1658595871325

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686

4

0

1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529405239}, {"name": "Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1658529410531}]

["road-bicycle-racing", "sports-default"]

0.5

1658595870124

0.100010644442326

0.2439487761224318

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{"NO": 151.4338312879936, "YES": 6609.196554612494}

0

will-there-be-100000-confirmed-case

18443.449071610656

Will there be >=100,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of 2022?

1672527540000

absbRn643dfzfJpTHnxssDlHxy52

cpmm-1

0

1.5516274397407077

True

play

NO

public

1656228786334

Joe Brenton

This question resolves to YES if there are >=100,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by year end, using reported confirmed cases from Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox Jul 9, 7:03am: My Policy = “Betting as usual” Applying the joy_void_joy ontology https://manifold.markets/Angela/repost...

BINARY

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0

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1672579690688

440

JoeBrenton

1672340056348

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https://firebasestorage.…a58-3b7a49276e37

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50

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1672340056234

1667509900987

0.01

0.12350244694443004

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{"NO": 82.0066983529482, "YES": 2021.6427466049217}

0

will-poland-control-a-polish-speaki

2460.026583287365

Will Poland control a Polish speaking part of Ukraine till December 01.2022.?

1669935540000

XVvIK7QYUfTkpaZFigcQFwfqZdQ2

cpmm-1

0

6.510360589895135

True

play

NO

public

1656256202980

Dražen

Part of the Polish laws implemented in Polish speaking area, presence of Polish police on the ground ( min 1000 Police officers), Ukraine-Polish border will disappear.

BINARY

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0

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1672127348871

180

DrazenPoljak

1671528481417

0

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["politics-default", "poland", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1669766178209

1671528478040

False

0.01

mY9QxUPEjdR5J1pLHFvO

what-strategy-will-work-best-for-me

167

What strategy will work best for me for completing errands?

1664251140000

pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.786478768837945

True

play

MKT

public

1656279535519

Pepe

I procrastinate for months on my errands. I still need to file my taxes for 2021, schedule doctor and dentist appointments, transfer my driver's license to New York, etc. This market is vague - it will resolve to whatever trick or several tricks I found most helpful in completing errands over the next 3 months (by 202...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664285972304

940

Pepe

1662936668082

0

https://firebasestorage.…a46-2f407ee8172b

10

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "599dbfb24e97", "prob": 0.14027409558276874, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.682981744743147, "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 22.572626815356273, "textFts": "", "contractId": "mY9QxUPEjdR5J1pLHFvO", "createdTime": 1656279535824, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

10

[{"name": "Beeminder", "slug": "beeminder", "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "groupId": "TBLLIYRPP9YImVXqKhri", "createdTime": 1664511330978}]

["beeminder"]

1657154860903

1662936665185

{"20051d83e24f": 40, "794657562fe7": 40, "e31af85b3d6f": 20}

True

0.31082030122593673

32RVotj0MsVDzqf5iye9

{"NO": 129.90617095316261, "YES": 778.3798621233162}

0

will-i-drink-alcohol-again-in-2022

835.9214749288753

Will I drink alcohol again in 2022?

1672491540000

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

2.011994618060836

True

play

NO

public

1656281865599

Undox

As part of a diet aimed at helping with fatigue, I am giving up alcohol. Will I go the entire year without a sip?

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 2.036964402815884, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1672700845234

260

Undox

1672730687876

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

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15

0

1

13

[{"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1658799099035}]

["health"]

0.5

1672473414820

1672730684777

0.07

0.5000000000000004

C85ZNLwzyD2C8CagmLct

{"NO": 119.99999999999993, "YES": 120.00000000000001}

0

will-i-stick-to-a-generally-low-car

176.57186973397543

Will I stick to a generally low carb diet in 2022?

1672535340000

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

2.130805372510977

True

play

NO

public

1656282226293

Undox

As part of a diet aimed at helping with fatigue, I am giving up high carbohydrate foods. It is hard to quantify as I won't be recording every food I eat in 2022. I just track each day in my mind. The diet will not be zero-carb. But pretty low, under 50g/day probably. But if I go say more than 2 days even half-eating...

BINARY

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If I make $1000/m. Has to be profit not related to freelance work or employment. For example, selling a product, pod cast sponsorship, affiliate income, profit selling on eBay would all count towards it. Since this is a side hustle I will defined "profit" loosely, it is not like we need to worry about GAAP accounting :...

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Jun 26, 5:38pm: A tie would resolve at 50%!

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“Lab-grown meat” is meat cultured from animal cells in a lab. When will it be available for purchase through restaurants or grocery stores in the US?

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[Planecrash][Rot13]In the planecrash main continuity, jvyy Pnevffn Frine hfr ure svefg gryrcbeg gb nggrzcg gb rfpncr Puryvnk?

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This question resolves to yes if, during the planecrash main continuity, Carissa Sevar uses her first teleport to escape Project Lawful, Cheliax, or attempts to implement a plan to do so. This question resolves to no if she does not attempt this, or attempts thus without using her first teleport, such as making her esc...

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Of the three colors red, green, and blue, which one is the best? A subjective question just for fun :) I'll resolve to whichever color is leading in a month. Ties will be split predictably. Thanks for voting! Jun 27, 11:38am: note I'm talking digital primary colors, i.e. the ones that we use in displays. I realize yel...

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Charlie

Personal goal today is 17. I'm on my third. Previous work days: pomodoros completed/pomodoro goal 13/13 11/10 7/7 5/5 4/4 3/7 6/6 5/12 11/21 16/16 12/12 8/8 6/6 5/5 (least recent) Note: I don't take breaks according to the "official" pomodoro technique, so pomodoros can be completed back-to-back. Jun 27, 2:55pm: I w...

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[For All Mankind, Season 3] Juvpu grnz jvyy znxr vg gb Znef svefg?

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[Potential mild spoilers below] Season 3 of For All Mankind features several teams in a race to be the first to land on Mars. Which team will be the first to make it? I will resolve this based on which team the first person to set foot on the planet is from. I've set the end date to the date the last episode airs, bu...

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Rachel Shu

Not resolved by % - just the top person!

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Rachel Shu

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Rachel Shu

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[{"id": "74d889658107", "prob": 0.6298815822625347, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 57.940341335560994, "userId": "YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 34.04574456877564, "textFts": "", "contractId": "OJmnh58FFbBeCQeec0zD", "createdTime": 1656356769932, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

5

[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529435103}]

["mexifolk"]

1656593410049

1662406044546

True

0.21151069001654071

5SArLBUYV5JxhmBNrReF

{"NO": 953.730725954429, "YES": 1081.1813381300349}

0.19134852856378792

will-my-neighbor-gails-house-go-up

414.4612998706594

Will my neighbor Gail's house go up for sale before 2025?

1735718340000

hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43

cpmm-1

0

9.682636548298031

False

basic

public

1656358780100

Alicorn

This question resolves YES if the house one door west of mine goes on the market or changes hands by any means that doesn't stop with inheritance or Gail becoming a landlady for a renter.

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.9896770372089173, "platformFee": 0.6583178483401729, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Alicorn

1714503191753

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c

2

13

0

7

[{"name": "Valinor", "slug": "valinor", "userId": "vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2", "groupId": "umnW4Jfo9cUq1wYRNyvd", "createdTime": 1670521453202}]

["valinor"]

0.5

1714503188270

1671599390066

0.5000000000000001

t8fFeTQJG2caoNE2tSni

{"NO": 199.2751404759634, "YES": 50.181874046683774}

0.4

i-will-sleep-on-schedule-next-week

230

I will sleep on schedule next week

1656997140000

CB4w5sHsJxQyoyO3mESajTSTugC2

cpmm-1

0

3.0057400676254784

True

play

MKT

public

1656359674129

Jack2

From 7/4 to 7/11 I'll subtract 20% for each day I miss my target. #Personal #Commitments

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.794253561363238, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657686493670

100

Jack2

1657686484515

0

https://firebasestorage.…56e-f3e0586e4104

5

0

1

0.5

1656887547681

1657686478263

0.4

0.8087798573174437

EVzuJOB4Juna6YlZnIGY

{"NO": 3600.153556709553, "YES": 372.7121835215545}

1

will-apple-announce-an-armr-headset

7666.122901487609

Will Apple announce an AR/MR headset by the end of 2023?

1685994079826

Xwq5UdgdzQVJQSNsomfgQK4KbXQ2

cpmm-1

0

1.2768419179767587

True

play

YES

public

1656368330585

Kronopath

This question will resolve to “true” if Apple announces, through press conference or other means, a head-mounted display (or computing device with a display) that either contains transparent lenses letting you see the outside world alongside digital objects, or a blocked-light (VR-like) display that lets you see the ou...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.079916382625917, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1685994079826

620

Kronopath

1686010628337

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiFA_cmkxQLkd1vmxPB96iPeUZyz47VricbU4GDVA=s96-c

2

37

0

22

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529445545}]

["technology-default"]

0.5

1685990976032

1686010624660

0.98

wi9DRpuerjY42W1op23E

who-will-the-january-6th-commission

616

Who will the January 6th commission call to testify as its 'surprise witness'?

1656459035055

H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.682576967884902

True

play

82965ec217d8

public

1656370957557

Andrew G

According to POLITICO: "The Jan. 6 select committee, in a surprise announcement with about 24 hours’ notice, scheduled a Tuesday hearing “to present recently obtained evidence and receive witness testimony.” It was not immediately clear whom the panel was calling to testify, nor what new evidence was being presented. ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.519999999999999, "platformFee": 1.1299999999999997, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656459035055

500

AndrewG

1656459019468

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c

6

0

ANYONE

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529511848}]

["politics-default"]

1656459018025

1656388295439

{"82965ec217d8": 100}

True

0.5000000000000308

qKH3zzO6yn8qlz6Pv4YP

{"NO": 10793.24725583583, "YES": 0.9265052271075547}

1

will-numeric-markets-return-by-july

11046.63902168817

Will numeric markets return by July 8?

1656797675637

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

5.311749614632072

True

play

YES

public

1656373689883

Jack

See https://manifold.markets/Austin/which-projects-will-win-the-mexifol Note that they don't have to be the same as the previous implementation of numeric markets. Anything that essentially lets you bet on a numeric outcome counts.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.53686018041653, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656797675637

100

jack

1656797643927

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

10

0

0.5

1656797631770

1656797642947

0.9843597847339215

Z2P8otKr0kZiVsVONTkr

what-time-will-the-mexifold-hackath

589.64973730242

What time will the Mexifold Hackathon demos start?

1656386461021

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.68679979940221

True

play

000902ad6d50

public

1656374638685

Austin

Valid submissions are 30m intervals for tonight. We want to balance giving people enough time to polish their submissions, against the fact that people need to sleep eventually :P And maybe squeeze in a showing of Everything Everywhere All At Once afterwards tonight. Feel free to argue for/against particular times!

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.934010507903202, "platformFee": 1.4835026269758005, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656386461021

620

Austin

1656396570667

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "59a95e286404", "prob": 0.02212120814628987, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.2994423752853061, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 13.236996200088257, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Z2P8otKr0kZiVsVONTkr", "createdTime": 1656374638922, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529435235}]

["mexifolk"]

1656386358824

1656396565753

{"000902ad6d50": 100}

True

0.5000000000000001

E8Ijn3gjbUN8wnd2ofCh

{"NO": 7.007947770650389, "YES": 1426.9512740777634}

0

planecrash-carissas-current-experie

1637.0198115481137

[planecrash] Carissa's current experience (the woman of irori) in a Mage's Personal Sanctum is not base reality

1657056850582

zNNQ1oKJAKPX2GwbUODThDvBLPr1

cpmm-1

0

5.428770672615895

True

play

NO

public

1656376201272

Robert Kennedy

This question resolves "YES" is Carissa is having her mind read despite believing she is in MPS, or if she is in a simulation that Glimpse of Truth did not pierce, or generally if Carissa is being led down this path as a "test" to expose "abide-the-twin-damnation" Carissa. This market is resolved NO if Carissa has a fa...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.999059306618511, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657056850582

100

RobertKennedy

1656886930959

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgovhYtKaBS0WIN2IHeAUhEETQaS-e2zZTgvTQAYA=s96-c

11

0

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529391615}]

["glowfic"]

0.5

1656886930829

0.004887131840204598

0.5

rIDiIOVebTritSsOLNGE

{"NO": 249.21222324670583, "YES": 40.12644271505323}

1

will-i-finally-have-a-fully-functio

152

Will I finally have a fully functioning bed by end of Thursday?

1656423788107

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

3.17576926440179

True

play

YES

public

1656383551020

Rai

Resolves to YES if I finally have a fully functioning bed by Thursday - that I can sleep with, has a mattress, etc. There's been a bunch of annoying delays related to missing packages etc. I believe it's now only blocked on just either a handyman from Handy coming over and finally finishing the assembly (the last one ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.7877767532941586, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656423788107

100

agentydragon

1656401717309

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

2

0

0.5

1656401717157

0.8613166941180388

0.49999999999999994

yFE9zvyoqJITuQ7vW4pv

{"NO": 132.08312974383307, "YES": 75.70989587689485}

0.6356475601106865

will-i-get-my-airpods-back-before-f

107

Will I get my AirPods back before Friday?

1656536543414

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

2.8111791391112355

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656391445314

SG

I left my AirPods in a wework in Mexico City. Will I be able to get them back before this Friday? Jun 29, 4:00pm: Update: My AirPods were buried in my backpack the whole time. Resolving this N/A due to incorrect supposition.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656536543414

100

SG

1656517170389

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

6

0

[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529435969}]

["mexifolk"]

0.5

1656517169115

1656391485292

0.6356475601106865

0.195260874508596

50xsyCRqXdptQZr39Ooz

{"NO": 459.44645029962925, "YES": 1003.3155037483089}

0

will-wildtype-salmon-have-a-culture

838.6237471508327

Will Wildtype Salmon have a cultured-fish product available to the public in a store or restaurant by 2023?

1672549140000

y4rCiP5HigO4t3nXy491EwUi1rl1

cpmm-1

0

1.1265874712148958

True

play

NO

public

1656425471584

Sarah

This question resolves to "Yes" if there is a link to a news story about, or a grocery store or restaurant carrying, a Wildtype Salmon product/dish, consisting mostly of lab-grown cellular material.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.309424282153896, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1678722719365

560

SarahC

1671953719247

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMKgPBZ9LLUWckr0VAF64T6ATtBRXhx1G5PXYxYA=s96-c

20

0

15

19

[{"name": "Vegan", "slug": "vegan", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "Xrhp6fk47Bx8oRUyB0vJ", "createdTime": 1663707340653}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529443690}, {"name": "Cellular agriculture", "slug": "cellular-agricu...

["technology-default", "vegan", "cellular-agriculture", "please-resolve"]

0.5

1671953719102

0.1

0.5

PPIiYP7djqyazJej9F1x

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

who-will-win-wimbledon-mens-singles

0

Who will win Wimbledon (Men's Singles) 2022?

1656431104039

HiuybALrLla5iJCcNt9Iwme7btt2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656431079925

Nico

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656431104039

100

Nico

1656431079925

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyWHVZIBXBUWUPADNCveJtz7QAw7r6Bf2zS_4gf=s96-c

0

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529401697}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

SkUhcgP4F0QRAL9w75yD

who-will-win-wimbledon-mens-singles-0733eb0a2643

628.709897753741

Who will win Wimbledon Men's Singles 2022?

1657450800000

HiuybALrLla5iJCcNt9Iwme7btt2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.70370686708806

True

play

650030f79b2b

public

1656431137313

Nico

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 10.588777974892162, "platformFee": 2.6471944937230405, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657470226795

759.9999999999998

Nico

1657437120395

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyWHVZIBXBUWUPADNCveJtz7QAw7r6Bf2zS_4gf=s96-c

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "8e7025e5b893", "prob": 0.0343838972826842, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.45917144937827226, "userId": "HiuybALrLla5iJCcNt9Iwme7btt2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 12.895086958365168, "textFts": "", "contractId": "SkUhcgP4F0QRAL9w75yD", "createdTime": 1656431137701, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529402749}]

["sports-default"]

1657437119136

{"650030f79b2b": 100}

True

0.26589840150106997

J2hNi76Y3D38jIc1sY72

{"NO": 188.40227002190386, "YES": 17160.734668840738}

0

will-scotland-have-another-referend

29687.054001501183

Will Scotland have another referendum on independence by the end of 2023?

1704088740000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

4.878818632061897e-16

1.36724841477599

True

play

NO

public

1656432085509

SG

Background: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-28/scotland-plans-referendum-on-independence-in-october-next-year

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 16.00005899105065, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704143163251

773

SG

1704143163700

0.2

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

1

40

0

1

28

[{"name": "Scottish independence", "slug": "scottish-independence", "groupId": "vXvYOfofXo827pYk2I6A", "createdTime": 1658529584963}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529416011}, {"name": "Scotland", "slug": "scotland", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8...

["scottish-independence", "world-default", "scotland", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.1351908410349671

0.5

1701457584750

1656573871820

0

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

0.528052148359543

oy8W7bbjaAS4FEkpmjUs

{"NO": 807.8509789699345, "YES": 633.3917289801888}

0.587978556324649

will-scotland-vote-for-independence

607.8152888021147

Will Scotland vote for independence in the 2023 referendum?

1704088740000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

0.5316141531399392

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656432350604

SG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Conditional upon Scotland holding another referendum on independence in 2023 (as per Nicola Sturgeon's plan https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-28/scotland-plans-referendum-on-independence-in-october-next-year ), will the pro-independen...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704143157434

713

SG

1704143157813

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

2

30

0

1

27

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529421080}, {"name": "Scottish independence", "slug": "scottish-independence", "groupId": "vXvYOfofXo827pYk2I6A", "createdTime": 1658529585256}, {"name": "Scotland", "slug": "scotland", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8...

["scottish-independence", "world-default", "scotland", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1703995376875

1699809584380

0.59

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

0.5000000000000001

clF9gci1Tm0wZO7sr6LJ

{"NO": 130.73184819637254, "YES": 76.49245488351838}

0

will-my-walking-desk-be-usable-by-e

32

Will my walking desk be usable by end of day tomorrow?

1656562532563

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

2.8083879217315846

True

play

NO

public

1656446413720

Rai

Got a handyman scheduled to put it together on Wednesday evening. Market resolves YES if by end of the day I can walk on the treadmill, can adjust the desk height and have the monitor installed on the mounting arm.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.2681518036274881, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656562532563

100

agentydragon

1656562572590

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

2

0

0.5

1656461343247

1656562571046

0.6308712166158024

0.3824283956866385

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{"NO": 701.8553077177771, "YES": 1560.7633482078108}

0.21781305498060508

will-prospera-charter-city-be-offic

1383.9950357054197

Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2025?

1735711140000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

9.809545876791583

False

basic

public

1656449465467

SG

Background: "The story so far: in the mid 2010s, Honduras passed a first-in-the-world law saying that private actors could apply to run charter cities / special economic zones (ZEDEs) on Honduran territory. Three groups took them up on the offer and designed various interesting projects. In January, Honduras kicked ou...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.008971925463733155}

0

{"creatorFee": 13.860970489431276, "platformFee": 0.13531019783511009, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

SG

1719229922125

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

2

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0

19

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529418292}, {"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1658529465366}, {"name": "Charter Cities", "slug": "charter-cities", "groupId": "9f48007c-13b7-4ccf-a9f0-d83f200d9535", "createdT...

["acx", "world-default", "charter-cities"]

0.5

1719187625269

1719229920354

0.4004382344271972

7iTakP8tO65PYvJfTkMo

{"NO": 133.62508344108718, "YES": 1394.6024016922565}

0

will-acx-write-about-afropolitian-a

1312.190013137054

Will ACX write about Afropolitian again before the end of the year?

1672552740000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

1.510673007859898

True

play

NO

public

1656449833967

SG

Scott Alexander must write at least 50 words in a post on Astral Codex Ten about the Afropolitan charter city project before the end of the year for this to resolve affirmatively. See: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/model-city-monday-62722 https://www.afropolitan.io/

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will-marginal-revolution-link-to-ma

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Will Marginal Revolution link to Manifold Markets in 2022?

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tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

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1656450473942

SG

The link must appear in a blog post on https://marginalrevolution.com/ before the end of 2022.

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1659708200515

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stranger-things-s4-will-el-move-bac

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[Stranger Things S4] Will El move back to Hawkins at the end of the season?

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r3OV4ND2h7P2yLShCku2RPuopPM2

cpmm-1

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1656453558768

Sam Marks

This market will resolve "yes" if by the end of the season, El has made plans to permanently relocate back to Hawkins from California. If no such plans are made or if nothing is said on the subject, the market will resolve "no." If things are ambiguous (e.g. because [ROT13] Ubccre vf zbivat onpx gb Unjxvaf naq vg'f hap...

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will-ron-desantis-be-the-2024-repub

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Will Ron DeSantis be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee?

1705954241566

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0.04015368149975405

0.7176517052583726

True

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NO

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1656453989217

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stranger-things-s4-will-the-siberia

40

[Stranger Things S4] Will the Siberia plotline have any material impact on the Hawkins plotline?

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r3OV4ND2h7P2yLShCku2RPuopPM2

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2.8252078683280617

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YES

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1656454549214

Sam Marks

This market will resolve "yes" if actions taken by the characters now in Siberia have a nontrivial impact on the goings-on in Hawkins. Else, the market will resolve "no." Examples of things which would cause the market to resolve yes: [ROT13] - Uhegvat gur qrzntbetba va Fvorevn unf fbzr cflpuvp vzcnpg ba Irpan. - Ubcc...

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will-scott-alexander-create-a-marke

783.7180359677382

Will Scott Alexander create a market on Manifold in July?

1659329940000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

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4.117752137839347

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play

NO

public

1656454638719

SG

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where-will-i-eat-dinner-tonight

165

Where will I eat dinner tonight?

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igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

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1656460876812

Austin

Close date updated to 2022-06-28 7:40 pm

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how-will-manifold-allocate-its-cryp

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How will Manifold allocate its crypto reserves?

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tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.730097419649433

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MKT

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1656461744438

SG

Manifold is investing a very small portion—don't worry, investors!—of its cash reserves into crypto. What will the breakdown of our crypto portfolio be? We will probably limit ourselves to bluechip crypto options like BTC, ETH, SOL, etc. but feel free to suggest anything. This market will resolve to the initial portfo...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1657301056958

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1657043364358

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1657043363042

1656557927712

{"0dd9641722d6": 20, "4a41cec40eef": 70, "4c09c2ae75e7": 10}

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0.5000000000000001

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{"NO": 24.224345941784357, "YES": 412.8078431521681}

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will-the-manifold-team-have-an-offs

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Will the Manifold team have an offsite in Alaska in July or August?

1661923726720

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

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3.703300001273908

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play

NO

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1656468751115

SG

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[{"name": "Manifold Offsites", "slug": "manifold-offsites", "groupId": "MXb1EY2fbQ4q7uUKPFld", "createdTime": 1658529458727}]

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who-will-make-the-next-time-100-lis

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Who will make the 2023 Time 100 list?

1684256458820

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.674221004730255

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play

MKT

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1656475746018

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves for all answers that make the next edition of the Time 100.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nov 13, 9:53am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Who will make the next Time 100 list?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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1684256711557

2959.9999999999995

BTE

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https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

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24

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529546387}, {"name": "Mana Seeds Experiment", "slug": "mana-seeds-experiment", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "ezH8vzlbGZr8W8R1duXz", "createdTime": 1668349280092}]

["culture-default", "mana-seeds-experiment"]

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1668351871303

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{"NO": 1857.663483653738, "YES": 99.78490980420975}

1

will-ghislaine-maxwell-still-be-ali

2174.92721077198

Will Ghislaine Maxwell still be alive at the end of the year?

1672441140000

YijiG6QeVjUY2DYNZR0QcNQDYv62

cpmm-1

0

5.418630453410479

True

play

YES

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1656499194389

Jonathan

This question resolved to YES if goverment authorities confirm her death before December 31st. Jun 30, 9:59pm: The above should read resolved to NO. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 1:59 am

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JonathanL

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529500013}]

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{"NO": 125.65181215630105, "YES": 618.746821779849}

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will-a-pongamiaderived-food-product

433

Will a pongamia-derived food product (oil, beans, etc.) be available for mass-market human consumption in the USA by the end of 2023?

1704085140000

K0RuUaKElPTtvwY5nCNm6VZrxUc2

cpmm-1

0

2.22347994907628

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NO

public

1656519795042

Eli Gaultney

Specifically, will this be available to most American consumers via a market/grocery chain by the end of 2023? This includes any product that uses pongamia-derived substances as an ingredient. I'll also accept a direct-to-consumer web offering from a pongamia producer. I won't accept anything that's labelled similarly...

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EliGaultney

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[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529526404}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736860618}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", ...

["science-default", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

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1704051530617

1704376554569

0.08

K0RuUaKElPTtvwY5nCNm6VZrxUc2

0.19924400845414936

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{"NO": 174.13250126885023, "YES": 1858.6405649406374}

0

by-january-1-2023-will-the-mainstre

1931.7383843906666

By January 1, 2023, will the mainstream media claim that Ghislaine Maxwell has killed herself?

1672549140000

WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2

cpmm-1

0

2.3430292547507823

True

play

NO

public

1656527891970

Zvi Mowshowitz

Resolves to yes if 2/3 of (Washington Post, NY Times, CNN) assert either that she has killed herself, or attempt to portray that this is probably true (e.g. that 'authorities believe she most likely killed herself' or what not) without a counterbalancing narrative, such that a reasonable person would conclude that they...

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1672605148593

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ZviMowshowitz

1672260204815

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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529488867}]

["politics-default"]

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1672260204692

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0.02

0.5000000000000001

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{"NO": 146.9345490326841, "YES": 68.05751312971061}

0.6834417399173407

what-will-be-twitters-close-price-o

75

What will be Twitter's close price on July 8 as a fraction of $54.20?

1657319295059

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

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2.8461784134802928

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MKT

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1656528085950

Jack

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TWTR/. Resolves to the close price on July 8 divided by $54.20. (If this percentage exceeds 100%, resolves to 100%)\n\nYou could think of this as a sort of futures market on the likelihood of Musk acquiring Twitter at $54.20. (Note of course that the price also factors in the value of Twitter in scenarios where this acquisition doesn't happen.)"

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100

jack

1657319284412

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

6

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[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529569348}]

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{"NO": 920.4776857253199, "YES": 1144.2922757518947}

0.21073606158362476

will-the-supreme-court-overturn-any

2132.0203524381777

Will the Supreme Court overturn any of Griswold, Lawrence, or Obergefell by 2040?

2209017540000

ntQa9hKfnRMdPyy4C242tPykGXg1

cpmm-1

0.28415749137932955

9.52759878673859

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basic

public

1656528666990

Dwaxe

> In future cases, we should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell. Because any substantive due process decision is “demonstrably erroneous,” we have a duty to “correct the error” established in those precedents. ~ Clarence Thomas This question ...

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Dwaxe

1715954925932

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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjJ6tgn98yYchUQgck8HyjzyvkYhq5czx8soxoztQ=s96-c

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0

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[{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1658529427523}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529477707}, {"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": ...

["politics-default", "law-order", "lgbtqia", "scotus", "supreme-court"]

0.14522454287968756

0.5

1715954922646

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{"NO": 574.3342544612436, "YES": 17.4114636595732}

1

will-office-spider-be-awarded-a-tro

478

Will "Office Spider" be awarded a trophy in ShlinkedIn Digest #75?

1657300118802

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cpmm-1

0

4.1381401825916315

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1656529104872

Trent Yazzo

Will the "Office Spider" be awarded a trophy via the ShlinkedIn Digest at the conclusion of this week for their activity on ShlinkedIn.com? https://www.shlinkedin.com/home https://www.shlinkedin.com/sh/officespider

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1657300118802

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kazoo

1657300109110

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1657300107683

0.6237686364356926

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what-changes-will-be-made-to-us-ind

90

What changes will be made to US indoor air quality standards by end of 2022?

1672552740000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.872282915004588

True

play

CANCEL

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1656529380330

Jack

I will choose the closest answers by my judgement. More specific answers will be preferred over more general. If multiple answers match / multiple changes are made to air quality standards, I'll choose multiple of them weighted by how well they match. I will make a best effort at resolution. Please comment on what cha...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673108746960

339.99999999999994

jack

1673108764355

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

3

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ANYONE

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["politics-default", "science-default"]

1656722091665

1673108764642

True

0.42785897479380797

HBmOofSH6TYmnUlq87qO

{"NO": 212.29645412123057, "YES": 180.2091382073536}

0.46836076770308505

what-fraction-of-dailyfreemarketera

202.5380038017422

What fraction of daily-free-market-era creation will a daily login bonus afford?

1661778073800

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-1

0

1.6736144451075439

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656536120102

Ian Philips

Assume M$20 login bonus.

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ian

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[{"name": "Free Markets", "slug": "free-markets", "groupId": "xckUbQD8rlqX2dK1Tpaa", "createdTime": 1658529585888}]

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1661778063731

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what-featuressignificant-updates-wi

353.30659480391216

What features/significant updates will Manifold Markets implement in July 2022?

1659329940000

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.7359839857755475

True

play

MKT

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Manifold

Will resolve to multiple answers of everything new we add to the platform, significant updates to mechanisms, or any other large projects the Manifold team launch. Upon resolution, the % assigned to each answer based on the size, how long it took, and impact of said feature.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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899.9999999999999

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https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

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True

0.5000000000000001

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{"NO": 340.0951879830161, "YES": 29.40353275595129}

0.85

will-i-be-able-to-finish-making-wir

1613.031336766115

Will I be able to finish making wireframes for the Groups feature before I fly back to Canada?

1656635473894

XNvwtGDpEZhjUiwZOBUYhBRmxvE3

cpmm-1

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3.4791727012171814

True

play

MKT

public

1656541064587

Rachael Ng

I began designing the wireframes yesterday. I will be making visual improvements as well as adding some new additions to the feature. If you want to see updates, you can check out the visual-design channel in our Discord channel: https://discord.gg/cf8eJh2PfW

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1656635531474

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How many people will we have promoting Manifold to their communities by the end of July?

1659329940000

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-multi-1

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5.006127541774194

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MKT

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We are starting to do more outreach and advertising as we look to grow the user base on Manifold. As part of this, we have launched the Manifold for Twitter creators program (https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-for-Twitter-Creators-2f0f5a9a77f644bf95728ccfed957ba5). How many creators will be creating markets ...

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1661778582337

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1659296827583

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["predictions-on-predictions"]

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{"5c8de96c1545": 80, "64fc0f130026": 20}

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{"NO": 360.20646930699695, "YES": 111.04742254339887}

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will-i-consume-over-8-hours-of-rati

486.7573928921079

Will I consume over 8 hours of rationalist content during July?

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uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2

cpmm-1

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1.774246723238043

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NO

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1656541663029

David Chee

A large portion of our community overlaps with the rationalist community. As Manifold's community manager at times I feel like I can't perform my job as well as I otherwise could due to not having been exposed to much rationalist content. I plan to set some time aside to read/watch/listen to various rationalist conten...

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["personal-goals"]

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1659304908407

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which-single-manifold-team-member-w

1969.6506710939452

Which single Manifold team member will be next to find a romantic partner?

1665683300553

uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.639418923593299

True

play

a40743b9cb34

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1656543494590

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Myself (David), Austin, James, and Stephen are all currently single. Throughout Mexifold we've been making jokes about it (Austin was the King of being single in quiplash). A "romantic partner" condition is met if any of the following occur: -Go on 5 dates -Decide to some level of exclusivity and commitment with eac...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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https://firebasestorage.…36b-b18dac7680bd

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ANYONE

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["dating"]

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{"a40743b9cb34": 100}

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0.5000000000000002

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will-lithuania-allow-transfer-of-sa

346.23898551173266

Will Lithuania allow transfer of sanctioned goods to Kaliningrad by July 30th?

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elagc5OpvzNBftXmzYdwgJjpJYX2

cpmm-1

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3.030525466208484

True

play

YES

public

1656546634972

tb

On June 18th, 2022 Lithuania banned transport of sanctioned Russian goods to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad through it's territory. This question resolves positively if such transport is reallowed at any point by 30.07.

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tb

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529491127}]

["politics-default"]

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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testing-yesno-resolution

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Testing yes/no resolution

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cpmm-1

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2.7725887222397816

True

play

YES

public

1656546700764

Marshall Polaris

Will this function resolve correctly?

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1656546708127

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mqp

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[{"name": "Marshall's group for testing", "slug": "marshalls-group-for-testing", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "6ymNyR341dQLAPKW5tBm", "createdTime": 1663110888108}]

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Testing free response answer resolution

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.962206060634121

True

play

1d5b4f35eec5

public

1656546731452

Marshall Polaris

Will this market resolve correctly?

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.4, "platformFee": 1.1, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656546751279

260

mqp

1656546743352

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1b-b4b038ba53f6

1

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ANYONE

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["marshalls-group-for-testing"]

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{"1d5b4f35eec5": 100}

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UlRWPmd3y5571NrLTbL7

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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when-will-some-country-do-widesprea

0

When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?

1656551728283

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656551656108

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9785/10-embryo-selection-for-iq-when/ Rounded to nearest 5th year. i.e. acceptable answers = 2050, 2055, 2060, etc

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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1656551728283

100

MetaculusBot

1656551745941

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[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529529085}]

["science-default"]

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1656551741138

0.5

otzkOpA50mchBNshMNnz

when-will-some-country-do-widesprea-10fd096b7660

286.4139311528898

When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?

10413809940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1656551818615

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9785/10-embryo-selection-for-iq-when/ Rounded to nearest 5th year. i.e. acceptable answers = 2050, 2055, 2060, etc

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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{"creatorFee": 0.11834473582108722, "platformFee": 0.11834473582108722, "liquidityFee": 0}

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MetaculusBot

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https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

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[{"id": "5b2ae28d9477", "prob": 0.1216129802484906, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.440120488179566, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 46.51574388600592, "textFts": "", "contractId": "otzkOpA50mchBNshMNnz", "createdTime": 1656551818883, "probChanges": {"day": -4.163336342344...

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[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529534040}]

["science-default"]

0.090173600356971

1715693380714

True

0.5

uqOQshY51TXnxTVWEa8W

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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when-will-we-see-the-first-viable-h

0

When will we see the first viable human case of in vitro gametogenesis?

1656552078995

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656551912505

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7385/first-human-in-vitro-gametogenesis/ Rounded to nearest 5th year. i.e. acceptable answers = 2050, 2055, 2060, etc

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MetaculusBot

1656551912505

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["science-default"]

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fa3ZNXBtk4OvmAOum8WX

{"NO": 970.9623115809613, "YES": 1037.3971314819287}

0.2900000000000006

will-republicans-support-embryo-sel

248.624672371723

Will Republicans support embryo selection for intelligence more than Democrats?

10413809940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

9.579795183129463

False

basic

public

1656552016934

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9795/republicans-support-es-for-iq-more-than-dems/

BINARY

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1709914198200

1709255567052

ujkFXgudY5YpJ9KVs03t

when-will-we-see-the-first-viable-h-19ca28a5b59f

187.64418834067538

When will we see the first viable human case of in vitro gametogenesis?

10413809940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1656552158731

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7385/first-human-in-vitro-gametogenesis/ Rounded to nearest half-decade. i.e. acceptable answers = 2050, 2055, 2060, etc

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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ANYONE

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[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529535719}]

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{"NO": 194.71898243373923, "YES": 315.8013279900457}

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will-india-be-one-of-the-first-ten

350.52581737469484

Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

1711994208630

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

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1.447355802733868

True

play

CANCEL

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1656552235277

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9594/india-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq/

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773.7928017725437

Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

10413809940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

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9.606149645289241

False

basic

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1656552362562

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9492/israeli-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/

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